Should You Buy Index Funds Now, in an Overvalued Market?
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- Опубликовано: 26 июл 2024
- As a passive investor, is it wise to buy market tracking index funds and ETFs from companies like Blackrock, Vanguard and State Street, even when they're at all time highs? Jack Bogle (founder of the Vanguard group) spent most of his career working in the passive investing field and in this video, we break down his thoughts as to dollar cost averaging in an overvalued market.
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★ ★ CONTENTS ★ ★
0:00 Speculation Driving the Stock Market
2:40 The 2 Possible Outcomes
4:20 Should You Buy Index Funds Now?
8:34 Jack Bogle's Advice
10:00 Buy Right, Hold Tight
My Podcast: / theyounginvestorspodcast
Brandon van der Kolk is authorised to provide general financial product advice in Australia and is an Authorised Representative (Number 1305795) of Guideway Financial Services Pty Ltd, AFSL Number 420367. Any advice is general & does not consider your financial situation, needs or objectives so consider whether it's appropriate for you. Read Brandon's Financial Services Guide available from guideway.com.au/NewMoney.pdf. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future investment returns.
Contact email: hello@newmoney.contact
Note: I do not have the ability to answer all emails, but know that each email is read. If enquiring about sponsorship, New Money is currently only seeking sponsorship from established brands.
Thanks for watching everyone! If you enjoyed, please leave a 'like' - it helps the video out tremendously! I really appreciate it. 🙂
I do like your videos, you are one of the channels I subscribe to and follow. Lately, I get the impression that the content is so repetitive and there is no new perspective. Something for you to consider and think about. Good Luck!
Great content!
SO MANY BOTS pushing fake gurus!! You need to step on them, man.
we going much higher, buy buy buy, u must be absolute idiot to think any fundamentals have anything to do with price
@@EvoraGT430 amen
The market's direction can swiftly change, with indexes frequently transitioning from a bear market to a bull market precisely when the news is most negative and investor sentiment reaches its lowest point.
For the average person, the strategies are fairly demanding. In actuality, most professionals who have the necessary abilities and knowledge to complete such occupations do so successfully.
The best course of action if you lack market knowledge is to ask a consultant or investing coach for guidance or assistance. Speaking with a consultant helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since January, even though I know it sounds obvious or generic. I believe that is the most effective way to enter the business at the moment.
please who is the consultant that assist you with your investment and if you don't mind, how do I get in touch with them?
'Rachel Sarah Parrish', a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
As an investing enthusiast, I often wonder how top level investors are able to become millionaires off investing. . I’ve been sitting on over $545K equity from a home sale and I’m not sure where to go from here, is it a good time to buy into stocks or do I wait for another opportunity?.
Just because there are opportunities in the market doesn’t mean you should go in blindly. To understand the potential factors that contribute to your financial growth, I'll advise you to seek the help of a professional.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
That does make a lot of sense, unlike us, you seem to have the Market figured out. Who is this coach?
NYCOLE CHRISTINA VANNATA a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
Thanks for sharing, i did a quick search and found her web page, i hope she responds to my mail soon
I did lots of backtesting and found that 20% SCHD/DGRO, 20% VGT/QQQ/SCHG 20% VOO and 40% bonds or 4%+ money market matches the growth of SP500 in up years but reduces the losses in down years by 40-60%. I'm still looking for companies to make additions to my $350K portfolio, to boost performance. Here for ideas...
I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to META, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective most importantly consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850K
impressive gains! how can I get your advlsor please, if you dont mind me asking? I could really use a help as of now
Elisse Laparche Ewing is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
The amount of scammers in the comments is craaaaaazy.
Can confirm. Source: am a bot and scammer
[ssshhh ... i think we totally fooled them .... just stick to the script and see it through]
I too am in dire need of financial advise for my investments, but I'm not sure who I can trust with this important task. Can you recommend to me somebody who has consistently delivered good results for your portfolio over the past 5 years?
Plot twist: nick8131 is a bot
These financial youtubers should really hire someone to deleted these comments its tragic this is happening but if youtube wont do anything they should
@@beepboopbeeppthese RUclipsrs don’t care about you that much to spend their money 😂
I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don't know where to go here out of devastation.
Safest approach i feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown. its important to seek the guidance of an expert.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
impressive gains! how can I get your advlsor please, if you dont mind me asking? I could really use a help as of now
Her name is “Annette Christine Conte” can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like
I find this informative, curiously explored her on the web, spotted her consulting page, and was able to schedule a call session with her, she shows quite a great deal of expertise from her resume.. very much appreciated
Putting well-earned money into the stock market can't be over emphasised for first-time investors, unlike a bank where interest is sure thing! Well, basically times are uncertain, the market is out of control, and banks are gradually failing. I am working on a ballpark estimate of $5M for retirement, and I have a good 6-figure loaded up for this, could there be any opportunity for a boomer like me?
If you're new to investing or don't have much time, it's best to get advice from an expert. Investing without proper guidance can lead to mistakes and losses. I've learned this from my own experience.
Review your portfolio with a professional and don't make the same mistakes again. Diversify, as in your stock portfolio, and hopefully consult a professional. The key to building wealth is long term. I learned 30 years ago that you have to keep emotions (rookie) out of your investment decisions at all cost. Now, i've made over 800k in profits from my 350k investment.
That does make a lot of sense, unlike us, you seem to have the Market figured out. Who is this coach?
Kenna Muriel Hesseling is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment
I just Googled her name and her website came up right away. It looks interesting so far. I sent her an email and i hope she responds soon. Thanks
Transfer of wealth usually occur during market crash, so the more stocks drop, the more I buy, in the meanwhile I'm just focused on making better investments and earning more as recession fear increases, apparently there are strategies to 3x gains in this present market cos I read of someone that pulled a profit of $350k within 6months, and it would really help if you could make a video covering these strategies.
For the average person, the strategies are fairly demanding. In actuality, most professionals who have the necessary expertise to pull off such trades effectively carry them out.
The 85% of funds managers underperforming the index provided is for any single year. More impressively and importantly is to look at that figure over 5, 10, and 20 years, where it increases to 90, 97, and 99%. That makes for a more than compelling case for index investing, and how very rare the likes of Peter Lynch truly are.
I've only sat down with 3 financial planners and 2 stockbrokers in my time to discuss investment planning and funny enough, none tell you this fact.
Most of the people railing against passive investing also just happen to be active managers themselves. It is wise to look for a fiduciary CFP when starting out. I went with Dianne Sarah Olson and I have had awesome experiences with her. Going from $25k to $90kin 8 months. I can say that's over-performing the index and S&P 500
I did read about Dianne Sarah Olson, Quite an interesting lady to look up on the web.
AI stocks will dominate 2024. Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I know someone who has made more than 200% from NVIDIA. I'll also take any other recommendations you make.
I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to META, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
I have greatly grown more than 45% this year already, though my FA has advised we diversify going forward. But safe to say a growing market does not always mean that the economy is smooth-sailing, but yeah, we can as well enjoy while it lasts.
@@hasede-lg9hj Could you kindly elaborate on the advisor's background and qualifications?
Annette Marie Holt has always been on the top of my list..She is regarded as a genius in her area and well knowledgeable about financial markets. I highly recommend her
@@hasede-lg9hj Thank you for the lead. I searched her site up and filled the form. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Jack had an amazing voice!
yes, he is the type of guy you hear talking and instantly like
He got me pregnant just by talking to me.
So many bots in the comments
Yeah these bots are proof that generative AI sucks and does nothing useful. Just another leap in the general enshitification of society.
I've kept much of my savings in cash for safety, but I'm unsure if it's right for retirement. Contemplating investing $100K in stocks, as I've heard investors can profit in tough times. Unsure about my next move.
I would avoid index funds, mutual funds, and specific stocks for the time being. Right now, the best option is a fixed income of 5%.
you need a certified financial planner straight up! personally, I invest in ETF's and also love investing in individual stocks. yes it’s riskier but am comfortable in my financial environment
Yeah, I’m also nearing retirement and have greatly benefited from using a financial advis0r. Since I started investing later, I knew I couldn't rely on the compound interest of index funds alone. Interestingly, I've managed to earn more profit than some of my peers who have been investing for many years.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
Melissa Elise Robinson is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I think about it this way: if everyone is waiting for a pullback to eventually buy more, then the price might not be that unreasonable
I want to start investing but need guidance. Any advice or recommendations for assistance?
It's a smart move to get help from experts when you're starting to build your financial portfolio. It can be quite complex, so seeking professional guidance is a great idea.
By investing in high dividend yield stocks, ETFs, and equity, I managed to make a net profit of around $115k. It's been quite a successful venture!
You really need someone like Della Martin, a reliable trader, to make it happen.
No doubt about it! Started with just 2k, and the rest is history! 🔥🔥
I was introduced to Della Martin by my wife's brother a year and some months ago, ever since then my life changed.
The answer for me when I know the hype isn’t real is to find a less overvalued index (e.g. S&P 500 equal weight or msci world enhanced value or msci world quality sector neutral) these are nice indices to begin with since they’ve had good performance and don’t go so heavy on the bubbly stuff.
My primary concern is how to grow my reserve of $300k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains, sure I know the risks of short term gains are much greater but if well managed one'd make a killing, am I wrong?
the strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.
True. Having the right financial planner is invaluable. My portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 90% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, though this could take till Q3 2024.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one.
“Laila artine kassardjian” is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Jack Bogle is one of the most venerated investors of all time! The impact of index fund investing has been immeasurable. Buy and hold forever might not apply as well to individual stocks. But you definitely want to hold onto the greatest companies in America forever! He is a luminary legend!
Peter you are absolutely correct however there’s a good chance if you buy in now the price you pay could go way down and take years to go way up again
@@Johndoe10007 There is always a chance price will drop. That's the point of DCA in an index fund. When you buy monthly for example. Sometimes you will buy in an overvalued market. Sometimes you will buy in a bear market. But along the way you will always get the average! Now, if you're telling me you're prescient and can predict the exact date markets will drop and raise again. Then you my friend have a God giving gift, that us common folk don't have.
@@Johndoe10007 There will always be a good chance prices will drop. Nothing goes up forever. However, that is the beauty of DCA in an index fund. Sometimes you will over pay. Sometimes you will under pay. But along the way you cost basis will average out! Now, unless you're telling me you're prescient and you can predict the exact date the market will crash and raise again. Then you my friend have a God giving gift the rest of us common folk don't have. And with that gift. I'm assuming you will be on the Forbs wealthiest list!
Great advice and details from both history and now. Subscribed.
Hi Brandon,
I wonder how you explain your passion for stock picking, which fundamentally contrasts with passive investing, as you aim to outperform the market. Passive investing, on the other hand, involves averaging the market's returns and aligning your portfolio accordingly. I find myself at a similar crossroads and would love to understand your rationale behind choosing both approaches, which seems paradoxical to me.
Thanks and keep up the thoughtful content!
I agree with DCA the same amount in bull or sideways markets, especially given that cash is paying so much right now, but wouldn't there be a strong argument for DCA a higher amount during market lows? We're not trying to foolishly time the bottom of the market, but if the market drops to a spot where we can objectively call it "on sale" it seems like a good time to dump more in than normal.
Problem is how do you define market lows? Maybe based on the Shiller PE some optimization can be done.
@@maartendejong9060market lows is when the greats are at single digit PE in my opinion
Yes - but I’m not buying a lot: it’s averaging and sometimes when my main position is at an inflated price, meaning right now, I have lowered the amount i put into it bc mag-stocks are carrying indexes and honestly finding good depreciated good stocks underneath the index tech growth.
Hi , Can you suggust stocks or funds which will not fall (or rise) during market fall ?
Isn't this why dollar cost averaging is all about?
aka just setting up a saving plan and auto-buying monthly for decades...
Man, Jack Bogle had a killer speaking voice.
That’s the beauty of a 401k …. Takes the thinking out of it
Honestly, this concerns me and has left me uneasy. Especially this potential depression, no more a recession. I'm unsure about my $130K account strategy, considering the uncertainty of this whole recession mostly.
If you lack knowledge about market investing tactics, get advice from a financial counselor.
Agreed! this is why I work with one. My $520k portfolio is well-matched for every market season yielding 85% rise from early last year to date. I and my advsor are working on more figures for this year. IMO, financial advisors are the most sought-after professionals after doctors.
I could really use the expertise of this advsors.
Her name is 'BONITA JEANETTE RODRIGUEZ’. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks
Just think about it like savings in the bank. Leave it there and don't worry about it.
I buy VTI and SCHD every week regardless of the market conditions.
This is the way.
Only these 2?
Nice to see good advice on this on YT. Depressing how many YTers get views shouting about a coming crash and fooling people into trying to time the market; most likely destroying people's long term wealth.
Can you please please please address something for me. It might come up in this video but can you address how indexing has affected investing. I often seen YT finance clips look at 100+ years of data but how has certain innovations in finance change historical data and signals.
Thank you
When the market is cheap focus on a growth fund, when expensive a dividend growth fund, and average the sp500 or the total stock index.
Strong presentation. 👍
I have asked the same question before on reddit...
I remember 1999 when we told each other the PE ratio didn’t matter any more.
There is 1 x person who is an expert at timing the market. (Paul Pelosi) he is amazing. His ability to gauge/forecast opportunities is 10/10
Even Warren Buffett wears Pelosi underwear.
Cause he’s an inside trader
@@connor3008 WHAAAAA????
You're only as good as the decisions you make today with the money you have. This time last year I considered getting into index funds and ETFs without much knowledge and decided to have a consultation with a trade analyst, and it was incredibly insightful. One year and a couple of months in, and I'm debt free. I truly cannot stress enough how helpful experts in this field are! Keep the videos coming brother.
I've wanted to get into the market at different times but I don't know how it works. How has your experience been?
I found out that investing is not rocket science. Jonas Herman is the brain behind my success. I've gotten into a plethora of assets with 10k spread across stocks (index funds) for the short term etfFs, and Roth Ira for the long term which has made me over five figures. Now I sit back, and just reinvest at intervals while I handle my other businesses.
Sounds like I need help so bad. To me, investing is not worth it and I know that's the same mindset holding me back from taking a step forward.
People often mistake hubris for actual knowledge when it comes to money and I don't even blame them because there's an influx of false info on the internet today. Unfortunately, it hampers rational decision making. He is one of the bright ones, providing me with a great deal. Indepth investment strategies are just one of the many components.
Can you introduce me to him? I'd love to learn more about his service.
And as for people who trade a lot yes because the FED has been printing money and all you have to do is sit back and relax.
There's been many times in the market that traders made the majority of the money while people sitting there waiting for the stock market to go up and it just moves sideways for a year after year after year.
Unless the FED can continue to print money this market is not going to continue to skyrocket like this.
And maybe they can continue to print money
Can you do a video on rebalancing for passive investors DCA'ing into US and ex-US ETFs?
Thing that stuck out at me is the clip of Jack saying "2.5% dividend - somewhat lower than history". Today, our S&P 500 ETFs return 1.3% dividend... Would like to see companies ramp up their shareholder equity returns. At least buybacks seem to be more common now.
Purchasing a stock may seem straightforward, but selecting the correct stock without a proven strategy can be exceedingly challenging. I've been working on expanding my $210K portfolio for a while, and my primary obstacle is the lack of clear entry and exit strategies. Any advice on this matter would be greatly appreciated.
Find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850K
How can one find a verifiable financial planner? I would not mind looking up the professional that helped you. I will be retiring in two years and I might need some management on my much larger portfolio. Don't want to take any chances.
Rachel Sarah Parrish is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
Thank you for this tip. it was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
Great topic
At no point in time so few stocks were driving the indexes.
So rather cost averaging into overly into 6-7 extremely expensive stocks, the strategy could be buying more into ETF that ignore those. Just to shift the weight a little away from them.
"Fuck it. Just keep putting money in."
Compared to the average American who says, "F it, just consume," that's actually not bad advice.
This has been true for many investors who put their money into low cost index funds every month.
Great video! No fluff just right into it. Keep up the great work! did my homework on which stocks and ETFs I like for the long run, made a plan for dollar cost averaging for a year and I'm sticking to it, trying not to panic...
I’m seeking to invest a good amount across various markets but don't know which is safe at this point of uncertainty, I was advised to diversify between stocks and bonds, since they can help hedge against inflation, or am I better off holding cash?
Dude you have more than a passing resemblance to a young Josh Homme of the infamous rock n roll band Queens of the Stone Age 🤘. Great video. Keep investing.
Came here to say the same thing about Josh Homme. It make me wonder if the RUclips algorithm recommended me this video because I am a fan of Queens of the Stone Age.
Should i start my sons coustodial fund now though or should i wait. Its a 3 gran minimum for an admiral index fun in snp 500
Pls read jack bogles book: little book on investing. 10bucks and all your questions will be answered
Hint: the answer is yes
Why don't you start a fun for them on Robinhood with no minimum❤
You should not wait, don't try to time the market
The market P/E forward ratios are reasonably priced. This isn’t the time to be getting bearish, especially since rate cuts are on the way soon
Of course you should 💪
Stay the course !
We Are in Unchartered Financial Waters! every day we encounter challenges that have become the new standard. Although we previously perceived it as a crisis, we now acknowledge it as the new normal and must adapt accordingly. Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2024, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680,000 savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.
Keeping some gold is usually a wise decision. You would be better off keeping away from equities for a bit or, even better, seeking advice from an expert given the current market conditions and everything that is at risk with the current economy.
You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a CFA, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst.
Could you possibly recommend a CFA you've consulted with?
My CFA ’ANGELA LYNN SCHILLING’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thank you for saving me hours of back and forth investigation into the markets. I simply copied and pasted her full name into my browser, and her website came up first in search results. She looks flawless.
I have been investing for over 2 years now and this is the best financial advice I ever saw on RUclips. I totally agree! Set out a solid strategy that works for you and stick to it. In other words buy right and hold tight!
The market is not just the S&P500 - there's a bigger world out there. Europe, Brazil, Chile, Japan... USA is expensive, but not every market is expensive right now. Just adjust the ETF
I've bought quite a bit of the Brazil ETF EWZ. HOpe i don't look like an idiot later for it lol. But it's trading pretty low and pays a dividend. I bought some EWU for uk too. Def global opportunities
The problem is that on many many markets ETF strategy simply does not work. EM can move sideways for decades....
Then you aren't passive investing, but making sector/regional bets instead.
@@user-ye7yc4ru7o The S&P can move sideways for long periods - just like the 80s... But yeah, a little more risk.
@@mostbeautifulroads9789 True, but if you keep your position on the US and start to buy something like VGT (Europe Index) for the moment, it's a good compromise. Same game, different server, haha
great topic bortha
Love it, can you do a deep dive on albermale stock and why it’s tanking so much ?
My strategy is to keep buying if it tanks. It's not going anywhere unlike other small players.
If you want to learn to trade, go all in. If you half-ass it in any way, it's easy to fail. A single failure due to psychology can blow up ANY part of your trading plan, risk management, etc. If the government schools didn't suck so much and hide this from us I would've aggressively DCA'd into the S&P from 18 onwards. Worked as many hours as I could stand, skipped going to college out of desperation feeling like I need to do something, and lived with my parents. Since they screwed us, I took the hard route. Ironically the hard route pays way, way higher returns than passive investing.
Incorrect
Interest rates have not really had an impact yet and the lag effect will kick in on valuations that are based on 0% rates from a couple years ago and money printing
buy VOO but keep a tight stop (21EMA stop)
Always upping the game with graphics 👌 Cat also loves the flying money and has launched himself at the TV several times during this video 😅
Great video
I just started learning and investing in the market about 3 yrs ago. I’ve made some mistakes looking for that delusional overnight quick rich stock. I now have a long term portfolio with a combination of stocks and ETFs.
I feel more confident and comfortable investing long term!
dollar-averaging works assuming that the times when markets go up outweighs the times when markets go down, during your lifetime. For someone who is just about to start value investing and is at 30+, would you recommend starting now or wait for market correction from all-time highs?
There's two main possibilities. The next 30 years can continue the trend of the S&P500 over the last 100 years and average 10% annual returns (despite ups and downs). But Japan is a cautionary tale that markets don't always go up. Japan's Nikkei index just recently reached the level it was last at back in 1989! So the last 35 years on their chart just looks like a smile.
I’m 50 and there is no way I will pay a 25% premium for stock, watch it plummet next year as interest rates are lowered and then spend the next 4 or 5 yrs breaking even. I’m putting my money in a combination of small cap companies and solid high dividend stocks until the dust settles. Then I will shift back into the S&P 500 when it is fairly valued.
Wow another Awesome strategy. I am gonna start trying in right away. Anyway thanks very much for the good work you do here and in your telegram Chanel .Thanks once again .
Great content!
I already own shares of TSLA, NVDA and APPL as well. Sure, I don't mind having these equities sit around for a while, but I'd also like to appreciate short-term opportunities that could fetch $200,000 or less..
You should consider financial planning
have you tried gambling?
wow, such a high quality video. Good job!
I believe investing in index funds is better than nothing but with very little effort you can pick the right stocks and hold them for the long term and make 20-30% a year instead of just 10%
Only Divided ETF’s. Their PE Ratios are around 17
long story short: yes :)
I like your style!
@@NewMoneyRUclips Yeah, so true. I understand kids worrying today during this bubble, with their lack of xp from 2007/08, or 2000. Every crisis, it is the same sorrows.
Try to learn from the Chinese real estate crisis. Although the Chinese market has tanked for three years, you see winners. How is this possible? Fundamentals.
If you are as arrogant as Michael Burry, you try to defy gravity by investing in BABA, PDD, JD, but then you bet on the losers (in China, the retail sales grew YoY -11 %, incredibly). It take a long time before the Chinese's retail sales will go up again...
If you are into fundamentals, though, you would have seen that banks were doing just fine in China. Bank of Communications made +56 % in 3 years... despite a Hong Kong crash of -43 % during the same time period.
You keep talking about investing in US assets from USD base.
I would like to hear you discuss investing in US Assets from an AUD base, adding Foreign Exchange Risk into the equation...
If you are worried about foreign exchange risk you can usually find hedged versions of sp500 etfs in your home country. If USD is strong against your home currency you may miss out on those gains but at least you get the performance of the sp500 and don't need to worry about your spending power in your home currency.
@@TheJstaples Yeah, thx
Isn't there also an opposite theory where lump sum beats dollar cost averaging as well?
Never selling makes no sense as investors goal is making money. So you need to sell unless you invest in dividends companies.
Schiller PE is inflated due to pension funds and globalization. There are plenty of stocks with reasonable PE ratios around 5-20 in Europe, Asia and latin America so you can invest elsewhere. Sure you can invest more into Nvidia, more into Microsoft and so on, but I personally think we will see a gigantic bubble burst IF there is reason for liquidation. Stock market however doesn't have to behave rational. It can keep going wrong and wrong for longer and longer as long as long as it just works out.
Grant video, wise words. I’ve been holding the majority of my ISA in cash because everyone has been saying the market will crash… but all it does is climb.
Ouch, learning for you is to not try time the market. Start to DCA in.
100 years of data shows whem the market has been this expensive. The following 10 year returns on the index has only ever been between -5% and +5%.
You can bet on this time being different from 100 years of data, or you can buy t bills and lock in the high end of that range then resume over time.
Just that simple tilt in your decision making can make a massive difference in your performance.
As our king bogle says: always be in the market. Up down left or right the rollercoaster will go. And it doesnt hurt unless you jump out of it (sell your position)
I am in the sp500 so if the market goes up: win
If the market goes down: i buy more stocks with less money = win
Fundamentals always win and the top usa 500 companies that represent 80% of usa economy and about 50% of worlds stock market will always do well on aggregate and go UP in time.
As sure a bet as any ever. no guarantees, just very high likelyhoods
there is a theory that passive investment fonds are not tracking the S&P500 but, S&P500 follows passive investment etfs. They are more and more focussed on mag7 which creates a big risk at the moment.
I'm using 10x20 EMA cross on weekly chart > cross green buy, cross red sell > too easy
Is the market going up or is the dollar going down?
Since the market doesn't seem to be overvalued in general, but in case of some big companies, the question should be, if this may be the time for stockpicking instead of investing in the S+P.
You could look at the holdings of your favorite funds and avoid the big dogs at the top that you feel are overpriced.
I have a 3 fund portfolio consisting of 33% S&P, 33% Total stock, and 33% international. I feel a need to focus on complete growth so I went 100% stocks, but does the SP500 and TSM overlap too much to make sense holding both? However I’ve been in the red for a month now. I work hard for my money, so investing is making me a nervous sad wreck. I don’t know if I should sell everything, sit and just wait but watching my portfolio dwindle away is such an eye -sore.
Not a FA, but some points:
1. You seem to have a lower risk tolerance than going 100% all stocks. If your portfolio brings you this much stress, then maybe go for a lower risk portfolio with more bonds etc. With these higher interest rates, I've personally gone for some term deposits which provide solid guaranteed returns.
2. Selling now locks in your losses. You've gone for a wide portfolio which most probably will perform well in the long run, there is no sense in selling now.
Investing is a mental game more than anything. If you're this worried about being in the red I'd start to reevaluate things and if it's worth your mental health for the (potential) of gains.
11:05 okay I've just listened to the whole thing and this is really good for you
How about a lumpsum? That you need within 6~ months?
I’ve found that investing monthly or annually in an IUL is a great way to mitigate the losses in a market downturn. Putting away for an IUL offers an emergency savings, life insurance, retirement, tax free growth of your money, AND contractually guaranteed to never lose you a dime. The companies that offer IULs back your account out of their own pocket to ensure a minimum rate of return on your investment when the market fails to keep up. If the market is up 15%, so are you. The market is down 15%, everyone except for you is down. The company will pay its owns money into your account to ensure you have whatever minimum rate of return per your contract with them to make sure you are ALWAYS growing. Pretty sweet.
That is fantastic advise the $1000 analogy. You aren't over purchasing based on emotion simply this is the amount I have saved monthly for investments. Simple Stupid! :)
Great video, thanks
Company’s reinvest instead of paying taxes on earnings.
Thanks for your sharring 👍👍
If buying during high and low P/E ratios is a good investment strategy. Why does Berkshire Hathaway maintain such a substantial cash reserve instead of investing it in the market?
Saves money to buy hidden gems dirt cheap
Shiller P/E needs to be reworked. But as you said, markets are expensive pt. i am not buying currently.
I don't think it's boom or bust for Ai. I see it much like the 2000 IT bubble. Everyone speculating in the new tech, then internet. Now Ai. Everyone knew it would be big, but they didn't know how it would play out.
In the short term the internet was overvalued, but on a longer term everyone in the 1990-2000 undervalued it.
I see the currently Ai frenzy like this. Expect a crash sometime, and then the true winners will come out on top. But i don't think we are there quite yet.
I am 25 but I just received an inherritage that I was planning on investing (already deployed some of it into the market) but since the market is high and that I won't be able to continues invest it, it seems more like some lump sum buy, how do I approach this? Spread it out over a certain time?
Yep
Yep
While I think the long term future of the index is bright, I don't have a lot for risk tolerance and I'm getting around 5% interest on GICs and bonds so that's where I have the heaviest bags.
If one is comfortable with average returns, then just continue cost averaging in index funds regardless if the market is high or low. But if you want higher than average returns, cost average when the market is down and switch to a different investment if it becomes high.
Thanks for doing this video. I was constantly in a dilemma about whether to sell my stocks to take profits or just keep on DCAing. Thanks to this video, I now know that I am on the right path and just have to keep investing every month.
I sold all my US index funds this week. There’s too much exposure to tech. The overinvestment in everything related to AI is grotesque.
Fix your comment section please these bots are horrible
This seems like the worst period.
Even the market are now very unpredictable. Started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today I am more than 60% down!
Don’t be confuse buying the dip in a bear market, with guaranteed future returns. Just because that company is down 60%+ from ATH does NOT make it a sound long-term investment. Make sure you’re investing in great companies. kudos to Sonia campbell
Only God knows how much grateful i am. After so much struggles I now own a new house and my family is happy once again everything is finally falling into place!!Sonia campbell
Amazing You trade ?? Wow that's huge, how do you make that much monthly?
Sonia campbell is my hope on the current 'bear summer' . I did so many mistakes but also learned so much from it, and of course from Sonia campbell.
This summer is making me poor please I want to join the moving train
Is someone who buys index funds truly a passive investor? That's a very active decision, specially if you go with SP500 vs whole world or tech vs divs ETFs
No one has talked about the raise of new investors due to robbinhood ease of use and fee free commission. I think it adds more demand in market
Yes. The answer is yes. Next question, please.
bookmarking so I can come back in 3 years and see how this ages.
Do 20 years too
@@brandonjensen5292THIS !
@@brandonjensen5292 Most likely won't be alive in 20 yrs
@@DT-vc7hdp fair play
It will age very well indeed.. I’m living proof of that…
Index funds hedge against your individual stocks.