Uncovering "a weird set-up in oil," with Paulo Macro
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- Опубликовано: 26 сен 2024
- Paulo Macro's analysis of the oil market leads him to think that "either there's something terrible right around the corner, or this is one hell of an opportunity to reload on energy."
In this special edition of Talking Markets - recorded on Monday as Maggie is hosting panels today around the UN General Assembly - Maggie and Paulo discuss the current oil set-up, why the market keeps fading geopolitical risk, the event horizon for demographics, and more - including the after-effects of Paulo's career being "forged in the crucible of bear markets." Recorded Monday, September 23.
Don't miss out on future episodes - get on the list here: gbe08amm2tr.ty...
We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.
P.S. The Substack piece Paulo mentioned, Crossing the Event Horizon on Labor, is free to read right here: paulomacro.sub...
#oil #demographics #emergingmarkets #stockmarket #macro #economy #inflation #fed #marketanalysis #geopoliticalrisk
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Paulo is a great guest. First time I heard China is on course for it's biggest Oil September ever.
Another great guest. Thank you Maggie.
My theory is that democrat favoring investors are shorting oil futures to keep the price of gas low until the election is over. I expect oil to move up a lot in November
If we see election results, otherwise I expect it to extend out further. The neocons running the country are funding both sides of the war.
Of Course.... I do not live in USA but I would go out on a limb and say ...the etablishment do not like Trump...hope that doesn't come as a shock to people.
I agree with you. The Cushing levels are very low, the SPR is very low, China is stimulating and there is incremental (per person) increases in consumption from changes in life situations in China, India, etc. The only thing that makes sense for the current prices is political. Cushing stocks will have to be replenished, same with the SPR, and if the new administration stimulates, that is another add.
takes balls to admit to being bearish for the past 15 years. it doesn't reflect well upon him, but at least he isn't hiding from it.
Doesn’t mean he wasn’t making money.
Another great guest! Thank you for bringing him to us. Very insightful take on energy and the boomers. As far as a perma bear, if you have been around long enough how could you blame him. But we are all learning together thanks to the Maggie Lake show to become better investors.😊
Using a 3month chart on xle - it could pretty comfortably trade down between 60 and 70 and look very healthy. The monthly looks to be losing momentem. That said when these rising wedge / diagonal patterns break up (less likely) they often really move hard. Slight bear lean over the coming weeks... but I'd change my view pretty readily with a nice big green weekly candle that closes near highs off this macd 0 line area. No energy trades currently.
Great conversation
Great to see you back on youtube Maggie. A most knowledgable and articulate interviewer. Also appreciate you are brave enough to interview someone with a contrarian view.
Thanks for your great work Maggie.
Good stuff Maggie, thanks for bringing in Paulo
Great interview, lots of important question's market need clarity and another 50 basis pt curb running inflation
Maggie you the best
“If you don’t buy when everybody is bearish, when do you?”
Net short position on Brent has me buying as much as I can. This setup is crazy.
where can you see shorts and longs ?
@@narcisochavez9392 I saw folks sharing bloomberg terminal screenshots on twitter
The long form answers are so refreshing 🎉 Thank you!
Paolo is a really excellent guest thanks Maggie
I listen to a ton of fin podcasts, average 10 per week. I must say that Paulo Macro is one of best speakers among the hundreds I have listened over the past 5 years, at least one of top 10, maybe top 5.
I sympathise with perma bears. Markets need sacrifices.
How is the electrification of heating, especially in New England, affecting the diesel market?
TY both. Clear interesting info. Appreciate.
A great guest providing some very interesting commentary to roll in to your thinking
Could EV demand be a reason why the barrel is not moving? I though EV usage was not at that level but Idk
Great guest, great interview. Subscribed!
Like bitcoin losses because they wanted federal dollars to go to 0 . It's like when pressure was enacted
always great and paulo is insightful - but didn’t disclose which ivy league he attended this time either
What happens to oil if we see a deflationary bust? A number of economists are predicting lower lows.
Buffett piled into OXY around 59, but his long term is more the. 3-5 years.
Commodity super cycle embarks following bust.
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She understands every beginner's intention and fix you to a trading course that matches your capacity, she knows her stuff! Her advice has been invaluable to my trading journey. Definitely worth giving a shot
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Being none atoumous is like spoking the market even cousin repo sell
Thank you so much Maggie!!!!
Tough to watch. too many ads.
Paulo is a cloud...nice
I see a bear in the clouds :)
Bear cloud?
Cloud Bear!! 🙂
Being anonymous will get you no we're
It appears that isn't the case.