Advanced Air Mobility: Expert Predictions For What You Can Expect In 2023 - FutureFlight
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- Опубликовано: 31 июл 2024
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Advanced Air Mobility continues to be one of the most dynamic sectors in aviation. To prepare for what we might expect to see in 2023, FutureFlight interviewed expert observer Sergio Cecutta from SMG Consulting. He has made five bold predictions for this year covering where he sees progress being made and where problems and setbacks could arise. Among those mentioned in our discussion were Joby, EHang, Beta Technologies, Archer, Volocopter, Lilium, Vertical Aerospace, Textron, and Airbus.
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Apologies for the re-upload, but we had to fix a small issue with the video. Thanks for watching!
The Lilium looks dope...can't wait to see this thing in the flesh.
Thanks for sharing your video and content
Magnific video
13:55 Archer has not demonstrated transition yet with the Midnight. Archer management needs to be more transparent and honest about their progress.
Proud Investor 🎉 LILLIUM 😊
Why not Archers or Joby
What is your cost average? I just invested Friday @1.3
@@jonpetter8921 They are short travel distance. Lillium is middle travel distance. So I don't think they compete.
The Traswing has the most potential of all VTOL aircraft designs.
Lilium have the best tech
Take a good look at the reality of the 'traffic problem' @ around 23. minutes -- the volume of existing ground level 'mobility' is thousands of times greater than any possible eVTOL activity limited to a few score ,or less, 'vertiports' --to measureably reduce road congestion you have to understand the relationship between traffic density and #1 flow speed and #2 flow rate (total number of vehicles per minute passing any point ) -both are highly non linear but in different ways . Nearing 'choked' flow the removal of around 5% of the vehicles can at least double the flow rate and that is a feasible goal which benefits the non flying traffic and citizenry far more in system terms than those who fly . The inherent expense of setting up elaborate landing/take off/changeover/ uber parking and passenger collecting/dispersal, waiting rooms, recharging , vehicle moving (like the conveyor in the volocopter vid ) baggage etc etc functions will limit the 'nodes' in the system to so few that congestion at them will be the main limiting and safety issue.
Airports are like parking spaces for airplanes - somewhere to pull out of the 'stream' ,stop, and get out to continue on -leaving the vehicle behind - there are many millions of such places in any city for motorcars ,motorcycles etc but only a very few airports, bus terminals,train stations or even taxi ranks -- to get to a meaningful contribution to citywide mobility will require a huge increase in the number of land/launch places and the placing of them in close proximity to where most journeys start and finish --being SUBurban for most starts and going to other NON CBD skyscraper top destinations , (as depicted on these promo videos) -likely to other low rise suburban ,industrial/educational etc places.
VTOL has been touted for decades (mainly in the 60s as a spin off from the then military 'tri service' projects) as a coming civilian flying bus service - with helicopters briefly testing the concept but failing for reasons not to do with noise or battery technology -- the economics alone mitigate against rotary wing flight and they are relegated to medical emergency, military and quasi government roles still . Promoting the current wave of battery powered aircraft as 'taxis' is an admission that the long sought goal of a flying car - operated much as a roadcar - is unobtainable and then making a virtue out of the fallback 'call a cab' alternative . How many people commute by taxi or uber to work or school or anywhere on a regular basis,- or could afford to ? Adding these one THOUSAND or so horsepower devices requiring a whole new 'taj mahal' type infrastructure is not going to improve the economics (check out the Uber Elevate videos for the enormous multi story 'v ports' their architects came up with)
Suffice it to say I know that there is a way to realize the 'Jetsons' flying car type vision that is not uneconomical, not limited to non suburban operation, is 'door to door' unlike the six stage daily trip by evtol/uber , is fail safe ,actually quiet and 'ticks all the other boxes' of ecological 'purity' (eg recyclable unlike thermoset composites) owner operable , etc etc -- and it is not VTOL . What is needed is to avoid any GROUND ROLL and of course any dependency on airports or runways (or 'vertiports' ) and give access to where people live and want to go without disturbing the neighbours or requiring their real estate just for starters.
The answer is ATOL - Assisted take off and landing --think of launching a glider by winch or a kite -- phenomenal rate and angle of climb with no onboard power or noise (or a much watered down aircraft carrier launch ) from an elevated , over road , minimalist cable structure - the Brodie system developed in WW2 or the very first flyers -the Wright bothers ,- used assisted take off and the pioneers like Curtiss and Bleriot both landed and launched from suspended cables --anyway , I am trying to bring a little perspective to this headliong race to a(nother) dead end in the VTOL stampede --as your guest noted, as much a phenomenon of hot cheap money as any technical virtue. Enough for now -just to see if anyone , anywhere even shows interest and can look beyond the hype . ...........
the cross outs are unintentional - a computer glitch .
Cities have induced demand, 5% of users using VTOL would just mean more cars on the ground. The actual solution is trains and metros and removing cars to make space for bikes and walking.
@@niklauszbinden8002 what you are saying is nonsense. Cars are going to be on the ground regardless, on a commuter lot or your driveway. Using VTOL reduces fossil fuel usage and traffic volume, the "problem" in the scenario.
Induced demand is a clinical way of saying "if you build it, they will come". If you make better roads, traffic will increase.
Americans will finance every project except investing in public transprt options that work like trains and buses and bike lanes 😂.
greetings! We know what you two look like so maybe a bit less face time & more of the aircraft? Best of luck!
Cities have induced demand, a couple of % of users using VTOL would just mean more cars on the ground. The actual solution is trains and metros and removing cars to make space for bikes and walking. Anything else is a drop in the bucket. So this whole VTOL space is a niche application detraction from solving most real problems.
Nah man, it's about true middle class point to point freedom without having to be mugged, molested or coughed on by 2dn and 3rd World riff raff at their discretion.
It depends. If we are talking about Europe, yes the majority would chose train, metro. When it comes to the US the eVTOL may have better success than metro or train. eVTOL is likely to success in the US.
Trains and metro are unsafe and inefficient. Americans will use this
Death trap
Lilium's Jet is where it's at!! Customers don't like propellers hanging all over the place. We want jets. RIP the Dash 8.
so true
So Sergio, FAR 91. 119 Minimum Safe Altitude contains altitude restrictions for flying over populated areas. Tell me Sergio....why did the FAA implement these rules. I am NOT INTERESTED in how the EVTOL industry intends to use the Washington lobbying pack of rats to get around these rules but rather a clear explanation of why the clearance rules are in place. Explain that to me Sergio. Why?
The lowest recorded altitude to open a parachute is 95ft for someone who falls at below terminal velocity (182 ft/s) and 800ft for someone who falls at terminal velocity. In the event of a full power failure could turn a hard to soft landing
ALL, yes ALL, of these "eVTOLs" will go bankrupt. They all failed to understand the problem and the business model is silly in the extreme.
New distributed combustion tech makes ALL EV tech (car, airplane, boats, houses) obsolete. It is 60% at pull power and 75% in cruise. 3 HP/LB at motor. EV motor + battery is 0.25 HP/LB... Active Drag Reduction (1/2) enabled by engines, not with EVs. The drag can be up to 8 times less than EV craft.
Door to door is key. All eVTOLs cannot afford the weight to be roadable like this combustion tech can. 0 to 360 mph. 125 gallons gives 15,000 mile range at 120 mph, 3750 miles at 240 miles, 2400 miles at 300 mph, 1666 miles at 360 MPH. No EV can come close by 100:1.
CO2 is 200 times less with RE fuels vs a 100% RE grid. On gasoline it is 3-4 times less CO2 than an EV.
Just a friendly hint. Heads up. You will lose all investment into eVTOLs.
So you think we should all sell our shares?
@@sphudson Scams (VTOL EVs) are a way to make a lot of money, and I don't give financial advice.
All VTOL, SSTOL, STOL, and CTOL EVs companies are scams as they are not viable. My post is a friendly hint about the future. No EV can survive RE fuels and this new combustion tech.
Charging a battery will be 60 cent/kwh from house and 90 at super charger. In UK it is around 90 cents/kwh for super charging NOW in places.
Fuel can be made for 3 cents/kwh at home, and 6-9 at a nuclear power plant.