RAeS Lecture: The 2014 disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 - a refined trajectory
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- Опубликовано: 25 окт 2023
- On March 8, 2014 Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing disappeared with barely a trace. It was carrying 239 people, including the crew. In 2018, the official investigation had been closed. In spite of the efforts of both the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) and the American company Ocean Infinity, the wreck of the Boeing 777 is still to be found… but where? This is probably one of the biggest aviation mysteries of our time.
This lecture addresses the key results of a study, which started on the early days of the loss of the aircraft. By using information provided by official reports, radar and satellite data, publications from the scientific community, internet and also derived from the limited recovered debris, a fully piloted trajectory will be presented which provides realistic and justified answers to all issues raised by this case.
The “person in command” from start to end, could have taken advantage of the shortcomings of the civilian and military air traffic control and would have managed to stay basically “undetected”, that is, if the Inmarsat satellite communication aircraft “watchdog” data did not exist. This latest study encompasses both aeronautical, technical and operational perspectives and concludes that the flight ended in the Indian Ocean with a well-controlled ditching, producing very little wreckage debris, making it even more difficult to find.
Ocean Infinity have announced their intention to resume the search of the wreck in the near future, and now with the refined trajectory the latest studies have provided, this will give hope to the families of the victims. 
Наука
This is by far the most comprehensive and I believe correct interpretation of all the data we have with MH370. Thanks for putting this together, I hope Ocean Infinity resumes their search and brings closure for the families of the victims.
I saw in another video that the captain simulated the path to be actually flown on 21Feb14 to Beijing, but ended up doing it on 8Mar14. Could it be that he wasn't successful in getting the co-pilot out of the cabin at the appropriate time (coming up to IGARI) therefore failed on 21Feb14? Could it be checked who was the co-pilot on 21Feb14 and ask him/her if the captain made any requests for them to go out of the cabin to get something (coffee?) on that day as they neared IGARI or any other night flight near that timeframe? This could be quite an interesting fact!
He got the co - pilot out the cockpit. By requesting a cup of coffee. At what point was the co-pilot asked to get coffee. I missed that step.
I saw that video as well. That us a great question! Did the pilot attempt to get the copilot out if the cockpit and somehow failed.
Critical question
Excellent presentation gentlemen! I have to say, this analysis is the best analysis on this matter I have come across recently. As an airline pilot myself, I have followed the disappearance of MH370 from the beginning. The results in this analysis are very convincing as you have laid them out. The smaller points that you address are very interestingly covered also. As a pilot it further convinced me on the possibilities.
The initial routing the aircraft took was obviously to deter detection. The aircraft flew along the borders of the ATC FIR’s and that makes complete sense. The de-powering of the generators down to emergency power with the RAT is interesting. To insure to disable all ability of the aircraft to communicate with ground based systems (ACARS, ADSB, Aircraft Systems Reports until just outside of ground based systems is convincing. The initial turn around being hand flown because of the lack of Autopilot on emergency power is convincing.
The idea that the cabin presssazion was dumped early on has always been a very likely situation. The idea that once the power is reestablished onto the engine generators, while repressurizing the cabin at the same time all while he was on the full faced O2 Mask for 1 hour….The proposed idea that the aircraft turn towards NILAM because of the minor southern deviation and the then aircraft switch over from ground navigation from a VOR radial back to FMS navigation is another interesting conclusion. This aircraft behavior is something any airliner pilot would understand. Something most have seen when re-establishing the automation on the autopilot, usually in training situations but non the less something most have observed.
Another interesting idea is the switch from Magnetic Track to True Track which the pilot likely would begin to notice the magnetic declination sharply increasing at that point. Very interesting observation to conclude a switch to True course at this point.
One more point that convinces me further is the use of Max Range Cruise MRC ( Mach .70) That is straight from the 777 manual. Very convincing one in this situation would choose that speed and it’s straight out of the FCOM.
As you stated at the end I am highly convinced that the aircraft will be found in the next year. I feel enough good analysis such as this here has narrowed down next options. I look forward to concluding this tragedy one day and hopefully that is sooner rather than later. God speed.
Thanks for your efforts to unravel this puzzle of a air tragedy.
I am waiting for the a/c. recording boxes to be found!
i disagree. the fallacy of this argument, is accepting the fact that those radar returns are real. it is easy to spoof radar returns, like what was done on 9/11 for war game practice.
May I ask, as a pilot - would you know that only Primary radar would pick you up AND further that NO one would flag your plane after flying in the airspace without any identification? When you say deter detection by flying along the FIR as the video says, this is an assumption that no military or ATC would attempt to contact the unknown plane?
I'm trying to understand how one would actually do that given the military presence and post 9/11 methadology?
1) the initial routing of the plane was the turn back directly towards the nearest suitable airfield. (By the book),
2) If the aircraft was down on the RAT it would have one VHF avaliable, BUT the RAT generates AC which is fed to TRU,
(transformer+rectifier Unit), so if its AC feeds went to the AC changeover panel, if it had a 777 style burn up, who knows?
3) Even the initial Primary radar data involving the first turn is out in relation to the transponder, so any thing derived from
that data is speculation-sort of.
The fact that you did these researches from a pilot point of view (which noone did before and that engineers seem to have difficulties to understand,not only from this video)is incredible because it allows to understand why things happened (or give clues),being pilot myself (with much less experience than Patrick anyway) I think 99% of the picture is likely to be correct,even if i don't agree with certain points i truly believe that this way of thinking the mystery makes it clearer for everyone to understand why the plane flew such a way,brilliant stuff
Thank you for your review.!If you have any questions that worry you, don't hesitate to ask.I will answer you.Capt Pat😊
17:32 "one by one turned (the transponder) [..] deliberate action" It was definitely deliberate.
I'm no specialist. Just a guy interested in this tragic case from the very beginning. Great presentation. I have no idea which trajectory is correct but really hope that one they the plane would be found and maybe there will be some good anwsers to why and how it happend. My heart goes to the families and loved ones of the victims.
Me too. Just a guy captivated by this tragic loss. Although I'm a little worried that if it ever is found, the recorders may not be able to tell anything. Not sure how long non-volatile memory chips can last in the sea water... ??
This superb analysis provides a comprehensive tutorial for modern flight navigation systems and SAR strategies.
Excellent and fascinating analysis. And horrifying.
Excellent video, thank you. Do you still believe that the previous hypothesis (in an earlier video) of a failed attempt to reach another airfield is still possible?, with this “flight to nowhere” being an alternative hypothesis; or has some new information come out since the previous videos that means that the earlier hypothesis should now be discounted? I know you made a reference at the start of the video to the earlier work, I was not sure whether you were saying new information (BTO BFO for example) now ruled that hypothesis out or if you are presenting a range of options? Thanks again.
The previous hypothesis was based by captio on a takeover by terrorists on board the plane. They abandoned this version. In this study the BFO/BTO correspond to this new trajectory which seems more "coherent" aeronautically.Capt Pat😀
Many thanks Pat, that is clear . Great work, I really appreciate you making it understandable for the non expert like me. This calm, analytical approach is so important in a world of conspiracy theories and alternative facts.
Thank you again for the updates , really enjoyed: the speakers : classic presentation:
Another YT channel suggested very much the same, except that the end of the aircraft was a high-speed crash. However, the data presented here about the flaperon surface being torn off from a ditching seems more plausible.
Either way, both seem to point to the same general location. I just hope that someday a search is made and can bring closure to the families.
I think it's pretty clear that the plane didn't shatter too much upon impact
Great presentation, very detailed.
Normally pilots will have their mobile phones switched off
That the co pilots phone was on signalled he was outside of the cockpit trying to make a distress call
That is my guess too. But also he could just forget to turn it off. But your assumption is same as mine. That is possible, even likely
Agree. Also the lack of any other cell phone tower pings is pretty solid evidence that the passengers were incapacitated or deceased at this point in the fight.
Indeed it was a part of MH's procedure as well... The fact that a phone identified as the F/O's hints at something for sure.
I think it's 99% likely that the co-pilot was locked out of the cockpit, and then the captain ascended to a high altitude in order to incapacitate everyone else, including the co-pilot. Maybe the phone call happened just before that, when the plane was at a lower altitude.
@@ajs41i am very sure the pilot ask his co-pilot to get something for him like coffee so the co-pilot leaves the cockpit and this will allow him to lock the cockpit door to refrain the co-pilot to be able to enter the cockpit anymore . Than that's when he quickly put all the passengers and the crew to sleep and to die eventually. So he would be able to control the plane without anyone challenging him or disturbing him. Finally ditching the plane the avoid any debris .. it's scary how meticulously the pilot plan this selfish and horrible suicide mission... My deepest Condolences to the poor victims and families of the passengers and crew..... 😞😞😞 Rip...
Excellent work!
A job well done research wise. This subject has peaked my interest ever since the tragedy occurred, back in 2014. I do hope for the sakes of those mourning families, something will end up happening.
Excellent examination of all the available forensics.
Wow what a presentation, amazing work. Bravo. One day I hope the last resting place of this plane is finally found.
Using the same methodology to find this aircraft as one would in an accident is a failing. The fact these guys have included the human goal in their hypothosis bears a lot of weight.
Very interesting, Very excited for a search and results!!!
Absolutely the most convincing analysis on the MH370 disaster. While there might still be some uncertainties on the final "ditching" & airplane configuration imo, the presumed sequence of events aligns perfectly with the signals.
I've always struggled to grasp how some can easily dismiss the pilot's culpability scenario without any hint except "he was said to be a good guy" (pretty much like most murderers), yet readily embrace delusional theories based on far-fetched motives. Given the complexities of human psychology, trying to explain the "why" is vain, only the technical accuracy of a given scenario should be considered at the risk of twisting reality to fit a biased narrative, seemingly like the baseless conspiracies often echoed in the media.
Coincidentally, I just read Cpt Blelly's book few days ago, and I'm pleased to see this thesis gaining attention. Definitely worth the read, as well as other videos available on RUclips featuring J.-L. Marchand & G. Diharce. Both convincingly destroyed the glimmer of doubt I had about the more complex scenarios, like the ones involving a technical issue (e.g. fire in the MEC).
Overall, Jean-Luc is right to say that there is no incentive for the current stakeholders to pursue the investigation and find the wreckage. I am sure the failures that led to the disaster will become obvious to anyone once it is located.
Thank you for your analysis! Pat😄
I have yet to see any evidence that it must have been the a deliberate act by pilot or anyone else. There’s just not enough evidence to draw that conclusion and after 10 years on the ocean floor there won’t be much evidence left of what happened.
one thing to be clear on here is that these guys do NOT explicitly say it's the Pilot Shah. They reference it as a hijacker instead, and they explained why.
I think it's important to note this because the perception in Malaysia at the time was that he was anti-government and this action was a protest against the now current Prime Minister being imprisioned in 2014.
There will be no evidence left if they ever do find it which will be sad. I don’t believe the pilot at fault but the truth will never be known
Would the black box still be at crash site or could it also sail n travel like wings debris ?
no, the black boxes do not float and they are at the bottom of the sea (they are talking about making them floating in the future) capt Pat😀
Very impressed with your presentation, exactly the kind of documented analysis i expected to hear more of with this case. Well done Capt. Pat! (Also I have to eyeroll at the comments pointing out the accent. Imo if this is hard to understand then the complainer is the one who is more likely to need improvement on his English...)
thank you for your kind reply!😄capt pat
Thank you. That' s brilliant.
I think that was a wonderful presentation. I'm not an aviation expert but I can appreciate the time and effort that these guys have put into this. I was just wondering though, the WSPR data that Sir Richard Godfreys came up with, showed the aircraft doing a 15 to 20 min holding pattern over the Indian ocean before continuing further south. How does this fit in with the said flight trajectory in this presentation? Does this not mean the flight could have ended before the 6th or 7th arc given fuel exhaustion?
hello..WSPR are from Mr Godfrey theory.We dont agree with that theory.For us the aircraft made nearly a "straight line" to the south.Pat😀
@@patgros9273 why do you disagree?
Why do you agree? explain to me how somebody can make a trajectory like that.I respect Mr Godfrey works,but my theory is different.😀
@@patgros9273 I know it's been a couple of weeks and no reply yet so I'll just put my literal 2¢ cents in....I am not an expert by any means in the sciences overall. I do follow tech and aviation very closely because it's my passion, I am also an airline pilot that has flown well over 12 thousand hours in 27 years as a pilot with 20 to go until retirement. I studied avaiton and my degree many years ago focused on that with a minor in aviation safety because I always thought if I could not fly, my next interest would be accident investigation as my next passion. In the U.S. That woukd be working for the NTSB. I knew people there and wanted that as my back up.
That said.... As an arm chair expert on the sidelines here , I always approach anything with an open mind. I initially thought Godfreys research deserved some serious thought especially since everything at the time had led to no discovery and we need something. That said...from what I can gather as an outsider even, the science of this is.... Very very inprecise... if I had to give it a word. That said his research should NOT be 100% discounted but it would be placed on a weighted Scale. We do not live in a world of infinite resources. So... The groups interested in finding this aircraft will start with the most solid information they have first... Then go on down the list.
When you piece all of the known factual information that we know and then fill in the "gaps" with known behavioral science and ALSO combined with other supporting info that is also known... I believe these guys are on "trajectory" that is likely more precise than Godfrey.
So... With out unlimited resource where do you go first?
To answer your question... One day this aircraft will be found. 100%. Just like the titanic 70ish + years after being lost was found. People will devote every resource to do so. Until then fiduciary duties guide the way based on the certainies and probabilities. People above our pay grades, live, breath and eat this stuff. They are digging into that calculus. In the end it will occur. The house always wins as they say.
Cheers, All just IMHO
Yes, I too was wondering why the WSPR data was not integrated in with all the other data points. My highly speculative theory as to the ‘holding pattern’, I think this was the last moment of ‘no return’. Zahari Ahmad Shah was contemplating the finality of his actions, and there was no turning back from that point. Once the course was set into the deep Southern Indian Ocean his fate was sealed. I believe he was a narcissist and psychopath who was going through a midlife crisis due to his extramarital affairs. According to reports, his wife had left him and his (presumed) mistress had also rejected him. In his self-centered fantasy world, he wanted to go down in history like the mysterious disappearances of Amelia Earhart, Glenn Miller or Flight 19. My hunch is that he intended to put the plane into the ‘Broken Ridge’ and surrounding canyons of the deep Southern Ocean.
Great work! Probably the most likely scenario what really happens with the flight MH370! Hope the plane will be found at some point!
thanks a lot!😀pat
GREEN DOT AVIATION has a really clean presentation on 370. I’ve watched it 3 times and as a pilot I find it’s the closest to my thoughts 5 years ago…
Brilliant,interesting thesis on final hours of MH 370,makes so much sense
Good work Jean-Luc and Patric. What I didn't get is what exactly made them change opinion of the trajectory and the final resting place of MH370. There was a previous study they said the trajectory was towards Christmas Island near Australia, why they have changed that opinion?
The first study they did assumed the passengers were alive and the pilot was not trying to flu a suicide mission.
Given the cell tower evidence this was the weakest part of the original study. Only one cell phone pinged the tower? It seems unlikely that the passengers were conscious/alive at this point in the flight.
@@Nolman I don't understand why they ever thought that, in their previous video. It was always likely he was on a suicide mission. But the question remains: why did they change their mind? What evidence led them to change their mind: I'd like to know.
What is your opinion of the recent " Green Dot" production ? Similarities but no mention of the RAT...thanks.
its a beautiful production...mais informations are coming from other team searchers.i dont agree with several déclarations due to ignorance of the B77 aircraft and high altitude flight status.Capt PAT😀
It is excellent. I’ve watched it three times.
Irishman at the end using the word contrived did himself no good, looked stupid then wouldn’t shut up at the end. Embarrassing
I want to see him out in the Indian Ocean looking for it himself
Rare things are rare. Common things are common. USA
The only reason the pilot performed a controlled ditching is to have the plane in one piece as much as possible, minimizing the broken parts of the plane, make it difficult to find, to make the plane disappear forever.
hello sir, that's exactly what we think!! have a nice day Capt Pat🙂
but why?
love story or illness...capt pat😌
do u have any idea the kind of balls it would take to fly a plane for 6 hours in pitch dark to a painful downing suicidal death hundreds of miles away from civilisation and any hope of survival...nobody commits suicide like that, they always take the easy way out
hello, I think you did not listen to the conference carefully.. North of Sumatra, at 6:25 a.m. GMT he put the electricity and pressurisation back into operation.. so, afterward he flew for 6 hours as you say with "air conditioning" and all the systems that worked...the only difference is that some say he died of hypoxia at 40,000ft = green dot aviation, (that's not what I'm saying). think he ditched this plane with all pilot systems working.regards Capt Pat🤭
Fascinating presentation. I could have done without Don Thompson's weird "my theory is better than yours" playground arguments and oddly self-serving questions though. It's always great to hear from David Learmount, even if it's just briefly, I've not really heard much from him with regard to MH370.
Mr. Don Thompson has his theory with the IG and I have mine. I respect that of others, but let's respect mine. That he started from a point and drew a "straight line" that's it. look, but we did it differently by recalculating an "aeronautical and controllable" trajectory. It also turns out that it matches well with the BFO and BTO.
By the way, we were disappointed that Mr. Learmount was not more interested in our theory. Too bad capt Pat😀
Much love and respect from SE🇸🇪 to you mr Jean-Luc!
You have really convinced me that the MH370 main pilot Zaharie had planned this months before the faithful day on march.
All the facts we have today until january 5 2024 points to a very well planned and acting from Zaharie.
The transponder off with the perfect point of Igari and a smooth landing with minimal debrise on the field are the biggest evidence of this disaster.
If I may:
In 2020 several revelations pointed to mass murder by the captain.
Australian Prime Minister confessed the consensus back in 2014 among the team dealing with this crisis was that the captain had committed suicide-homicide.
In latec2022 Sky News Australia did their own research and presented it as a special investigation program. The conclusions were the same.
This has been the focus of a lot of agencies and experts for years. Politically motivated, the captain tried something and gambled. He probably killed everyone on-board first.
This is sad, tragic. Horrible.
@@mikem.s.1183
I just cant understand the malaysian authorities protecting him so much :/
And I am sure 100 % that they know much more then what they tell us.
I understand business logic very well and I know its not good to have a massmurder suicide on the company, but at the same I have a feeling that their costumer should trust them even more if they helped to clear this mystery..
@@Nicosshalagalanis he's a symbol for them. Plus, him being the hijacker leaves a ton of questions for the authorities to answer. How was he allowed? How didn't want psych evals catch anomalies? What about his political affiliation with the disgraced PM?
@@mikem.s.1183
Yeah but he was so F…* relaxed that night..
The video from the security control and the audio tapes before takeoff and on cruise attitude, he seems to be 100 % unguilty.
It seems that he was very determined to do this and just waited for the ”challenge” to begin..
@@NicosshalagalanisSee also Mentour Pilot. Very good. He analyses Captain's calls and detects some anomalies.
Given this analysis (specifically the power been cut etc and also it been a intentional act) what would the expectations be regarding what got recorded on the FDR/CVR. i.e. would they have operated throughout the flight or would the power cut and/or perpetrator have been able to have disable them? Was just thinking should the wreckage ever be located it's not unreasonable to think nothing new would be learned aside from validation of the location of the crash. Does seem to be a reasonable expectation that the recorders would still be readable possibly for decades but not much good if there's nothing on them.
good evening, on the voice recording actually I don't think there is much to hear... On the other hand on the recording of "data" we should be able to find elements of actions made by the pilot in the cockpit, "unless" if he went into the electronic hold to pull the electrical power supply breakers. But in this case, everything that was recorded "before" will be on the memories. Then, at the bottom of the sea there is has little salt, no light and no oxygen, so there is a good chance that the memories will be little or not corroded. So they will probably be "readable" if we recover them! Capt Pat 😁
@@patgros9273 On the other hand would finding the wreck in the right place and the right condition but the FDR unreadable be evidence enough?
We have no certainty that the FDR is "readable" but a good hope, because there is little salt light and oxygen at the bottom of the sea so little risk of corrosion..😀
Need a written English transcript, an excellent analysis, thank you!,
www.mh370-caption.net/wp-content/uploads/3-known-trajectory-and-recalculated-trajectory.pdf
QUESTION? If the pilot cut the power back on 1 engine would it extend or reduce the range by fuel saving or lower speed?
this depends on many parameters (optimal altitude or not etc.) in my own theory he reduced the power of two engines and flew at a low speed..I don't think he was in such a hurry to go towards death .This gave him a little extra time.
However, some say that he cut off an engine to save fuel to go further? I don't believe it. Why gain 100 or 200 Nm in the middle of nowhere and 2000km from the coast? capt pat😀
I
@@patgros9273 If he gains even 50 miles by power reduction, figuring the search area could be short and plane
remains missing.
Yes for me the difference is minimal. For the impact zone I prefer to rely on the CSIRO and the debris spotted by satellite.. That would correspond to our zone..
😀Capt pat
@@patgros9273 hey Pat, given the length fo time before the supposed crashing, what do you think the mental capacity was of the pilot?
It's very many hours to realise what he has done or is doing?
Same can be said for the say, 18 minutes of O2 supply for the passengers, he would have heard screaming and pleas for their lives?
@@moosesnWoop hello.I think that once we have made this decision to go all the way, we do it. As pilots, we are trained to do what we say and not to change our minds every time. the 5 minutes.The flight lasted about 6h30 after the hijacking, I don't know what he was thinking...maybe about his life? As for the passengers he couldn't hear them, because they were wearing masks Oxygen on the face...then after 22 minutes they fell asleep...then...I thought the only one who was alive and with a portable oxygen tank was the co-pilot who had to knock on the cockpit door.🤫Capt pat
how does this analysis align(or not?) with Kate Tee's sighting? Which seems to suggest much lower altitude for MH370
non no no 😀 this analysis dont have any orange "glow "aircraft at high incidence with no hublot and no marks at low altitude with black trails in the night ...🤣😇 sorry pat
Fantastic research, all of you. The pilots perspective adds a lot of credibility to the suicide hypothesis. The captain probably didn't want the plane to be found as to not affect his family should he be found responsible for this huge crime.
well done!!Capt Pat😄
@@patgros9273 Bravo Captain, I hope a search finds and validates your hypothesis. It will surely be very interesting if they find the FDR.
I wouldn't characterise it so much as a suicide, it's more that he wanted to be in total control of the plane and the lives of everyone on board, with no-one else able to tell him what to do. The fact that it also ended in his death is almost besides the point. It was all about controlling the destiny of other people and the plane. That's the way I look at it.
@@ajs41why not? may be..🤔Capt Pat
Was his fuel levels in his home simulator match the actual fuel load of MH370? Can the crash point be adjusted to take into account for the fuel differences (if any)?
On his simulator it was probably a cargo flight to Jeddah since it left from a "cargo" parking lot. He had 69.6T of fuel which allowed him to go further than the day of MH370 (the simulated points= 45° south and our estimate MH370=>35° to 36° south).Capt pat😀
There were only scraps of previous flights on his home simulator. Not a complete flight. That’s been determined by people given a copy of his hard drive
Mr. Chris, there were "scraps" concerning the pilot simulator as you say, and I can confirm that I have 32 pages...Nevertheless these "scraps" probably concern "2 flights" given the elements collected. These two flights took place on the "same day" or not, it is not important, and the developments in the Strait of Malacca are debatable and are only assessments or "trajectory assumptions". On the other hand you will be able to circumvent the problem in all directions, what is indisputable is that there are 2 coordinates at 45South, 2.5 nm apart, one at 37653ft fuel at "0" (minimum flight speed at this altitude) then the plane has been down to 3999 ft fuel at "0" and at the minimum speed to fly at "0" (returned). So you can find me "all the excuses" in the world, HE dragged (or flew) his plane on February 2 2014 (one month before MH370) in the south of the Indian Ocean at the end of its fuel. Full stop. I remind you that subsequently he erased all traces of what he did by erasing 5 of the 6 HDD that he had (and had among other things 77 of his passwords and connection traces. You might think that this is a "bit of chance" perhaps? I call that premeditation dear sir.Capt pat🤔
@@patgros9273 Ive not previously seen anything about multiple erased drives from the active computer. I’ve only seen that he had multiple drives laying around that had been used to either shadow his windows drive or back it up.
All I have gotten from the reports of two computer specialists who were given access was that there was some odd circumstantial evidence in those recovered files. Their opinion was that people were seeing what they wanted to in those files.
I’m not the one making excuses. I remain firm I want more conclusive evidence before condemning the pilot. You seem seem to be finding the evidence you need to support the conclusion you want. That’s making excuses as to why the evidence doesn’t fit perfectly. 2 coordinates that cannot be linked except by date to others in the files leaves questions not answers.
At this point we have lots of dots on a piece of paper that some connect to make a picture of deliberate pilot action. I still see you can connect those dots in a different way and get another conclusion.
Hmmmm... Erasing 5 hard drives is a lot. 🤔 Most people don't even erase their 1 hard drive as it takes a bit of time depending on how you "erase" it and how many times its wiped. Additionally, the bigger the hard drive, it takes that much more time to erase. The average person NEVER erases their hard drive. I would guess the 6th hard drive is either the operating system or program that contained no data so no need to erase. It would be llike setting up your Windows to run and live on your main C drive, and all of your documents and photos live on a second drive. That way if your C drive crashes you still have all your important documents and pics on the other drive. But thats just a guess. I don't know what Simulator program he was using but I would think it would give you an option to pick where you want to store all of your flight data. If it does, you could easily browse to a D drive folder or even a removeable drive and tell it to store all the flight data there. @@patgros9273
Hello. Why was he flying the plane manually after IGARI? Does the autopilot and the FMC CDU stop working whilst running on the RAT? If they don’t, then why didn’t he use them?
Thank you!
Hello,there are 2 différents things:The flight control were manually at this moment because we were able to demonstrate that to follow the radar tracks "exactly" he had tilted the plane first at 25° then finished the turn at 38° which is impossible to do with the autopilot. You have to fly manually. Regarding the MDCU and the FMC, on the RAT they operate in basic mode. You cannot follow automatic navigation but the points inserted in the MCDU appear on the navigation screen. You must therefore go to these points at the hand because the autopilot cannot be used while flying except on the RAT.Pat😀
@@patgros9273 hello. Thanks for your reply. Why do you think he disabled all 4 generators instead of just disabling 2 which would’ve ensured SATCOM was off. Thanks
Yes sure..the satcom was off with 2 generators..the problem is many system are "interconnected" with bus 629 and nobody knows witch system is powered by witch network.They are lot of communication system in the aircraft..2HF, 3VHF,Satcom, ADSB ,2Transponders, ACARS etc.. if i want to stop immediately "all systems "the best way is to cut all power..4 gen off+APU off.no need to make some electrical manipulations complicated with O² full face mask on the face.Its impossible on this aircraft to "shut down" the ACARS..its a multiple system and there are not "Control breaker" to cut it.We have every time some risks about a transmission after a "reset" and some communication system could come back in emission..Pat😇
@@patgros9273 hello. Thanks for your detailed reply. Makes a lot of sense.
What do you think about the pilot having gone down into the EE bay to the P110 electrical panel to disable the SATCOM and other electrical equipment instead? Turning it off this way would ensure the GES log is sent to the ground back to the control centre, and no GES log was sent to the ground.
Thanks for your time!
No you are wrong..fo me he never went down in the EE..no need.If you shut down all electrical power, the satcom is immediately shut down and not report sent to the ground.The person in command of this aircraft never left the cockpit...no need! all commands are in the cockpit.Do you really somebody lift up the carpet in the attendant galley, open the hatch in the middle of the attendant carts for service ,to go down? any procedure in flight allows somebody to go down to hte MEC.Too much risky.Pat😀
The fuselage is 73m long, so imagine trying to find it, broken in pieces, in the OCEAN. it's crazy to think about finding such a small thing. Use google maps and measure out 77m in the spot that they say... oh boy..
hello...it's precisely because it's hard that we have been working for years voluntarily to, perhaps give useful information and help future research. The goal being that the families of the victims know "where" their loved ones are and, if we luckily find the black boxes, let us know what happened. That's all we want when doing this work. Have a good weekend. Patrick😀
People seem to think the ocean is small and more pieces should have been found. The Indian Ocean is *massive* and debris could have floated west at different depths. It's like throwing dandelions into the air and then hoping to catch all the floating seeds a mile away.
if you say it, it’s because you know it..have a good day😁
@@fallinginthed33p exactly, when you use Google Maps and measure out 77m (assuming it didn't break into several pieces) you'll fast realise how small the plane is versus the size and expanse (depth as well) of the Ocean.
Muy elegante presentacion como la anterior de de la isla Navidad.lo que no es entendible como un refinamiento pueda cambiar exageradamente y se traslade por completo hasta el SIO. SALUDOS
@17:25 Transponder manually turned OFF, @22:38 Pilot locked the cockpit door!
• Where was the co-pilot when the auto pilot and transponder were turned OFF?
• Assuming the co-pilot did not need to use the bathroom, since the aircraft just took off, there must have been a reason the pilot asked to co-pilot to depart from the cockpit! It must have been serious for the co-pilot to leave his position to follow the pilot's command!!!
Bonsoir Patrick. Tout d'abord merci pour cette présentation par vous et Jean-Luc. C'est grâce à votre amis Gilles Diharce et à son contenu RUclips que j'ai entendu parler de vos travaux sur le MH370. Je vois que vous êtes très avenant dans les commentaires, près à répondre à toutes les questions quelle qu'elles soient.
Je vais en profiter moi aussi.
Comment ça se passe avec l'ATSB et Ocean Infinity depuis ?
Est ce qu'ils ont connaissance de vos travaux à vous et Jean-Luc ? Et ce que ça a plutôt l'air d'être favorable pour relancer sur votre zone de recherche ?
J'espère que oui personnellement.
Et puis nous allons bientôt avoir un énième documentaire sur le MH370 avec entre autre De Changy et le reste des théories fumeuses qui y seront présentés. Le dernier chapitre du doc aurait très bien pu être consacré à votre théorie du detournement avec vol plané sur la fin. Mais ce n'est pas le cas dans ce doc.
Est ce que ça aurait aidé d'avoir cette médiatisation sur vos travaux pour forcer d'avantage la reprise des recherches dans ce sens ? Ou est ce que ça ne change pas grand chose au final ?
En tout cas, merci à vous. 🙂
Et bien merci pour ce petit mot sympa!😀Alors, au sujet de l 'ATSB il n'ont plus d’enquête "en cours" comme le BEA d'ailleurs .J'ai "ouïe" dire qu'ils sont toujours intéressé pour ce qui touche de probables futures recherches,mais le problème est qui payera si on retrouve l'avion (avec le concept "no find no fee" d'Ocean Infinity). Donc, il faut une décision politique de la Malaisie pour reprendre ces recherches et, accessoirement "qui" les payeraient (20M$).A vrai dire je ne suis pas sûr qu'ils le veuillent, mais ce n'est que mon avis.😒Au sujet du vol plané , c'est ce que nous pensons avec Jean Luc.Nous ne croyons pas qu 'il a percuté la planète a 1000km/h, mais qu'il a été amerri.Bien sûr, on ne peut jamais être certain a 100% mais si on ne fait rien, on ne retrouvera pas cet avion,donc il faut bien proposer une solution pour "aller voir". Dans les médias audiovisuels Français nos travaux sont peu connus à contrario d'autre pays.Je pense que les autorités Malaisiennes doivent recevoir du monde entier de multiples "études" sur cette affaire et je comprend que ce ne doit pas être facile de privilégier l'une ou l'autre.Donc on aura peu de poids.Je pense que ceux qui peuvent faire bouger les choses sont: les journalistes Malaisiens ou Australiens (pas les nôtres),ou les associations de famille des victimes si elles mettent la pression aux autorités.Quand à Mme FDC et Jeff W. (docu Netflix )il n'y a rien a dire,Gilles a tout dit.Ce qui est triste c'est qu’elle a réussi à rallier à sa cause, Mr Wrattelos.Je ne pense pas qu il y aura des nouveautés ce soir,sauf peut être les nouvelles trouvailles de Blaine Gibson.Cela ne nous empêche pas de continuer! "Haut les cœurs! "bonne journée ! Capt Pat☺
Excellent
Presentation is very interesting. I wish they had an English translator though. Very hard to understand at times.
yes me too when i listen english people speaking french in my country.be indulgent🙂capt Pat
@patgros9273 Nous anglais sont paresseux. I found you OK. Loved your presentation. Merci beaucoup. Did you like Mentour Pilot's video? He looks at Godfrey's work, the figure of 8 the plane may have made towards the end? Pilot sounding distracted at one point.
@@8_7478 Hello ! thank you for understanding. It is not always easy to make a technical presentation in another language. Regarding WSPR, I am not competent in the matter but this trajectory, if it is piloted, is understandable..what was wanted be the pilot with so many turns and different altitudes? Moreover, he would have done that with an autopilot which is extremely difficult. Regarding the 8 for me I don't understand what the message is. If it was to observe the state of the sea a 360° was enough. have a good day!capt pat☺
@@patgros9273can you publish an English transcript? Thank you for a great presentation
@@letitsnow8518 i m ok but what are you talking about? which one présentation? RAES?I did my best to tr yt o speak in your language.My Native mine french Capt pat🤔
If anyone can answer some technical questions, I have a lot of them!
1) the transponder data that suggests the knob was turned through ALT OFF, also shows a loss of speed data during most of the flight, why?
AND what caused the 4 knot variation in speed over the 0.8 seconds of the last transpond. And how did the secondary radar manage to
interogate MH370 at ~0.5sec intervals, was it an omnidirectional antenna. AND where is the other transponder data from other secondary radars watching the flight to verify the data?
2) IF MH370 had a loss of ALL 115v AC power, what could the aircraft achieve on DC only, AND for how long,are there DC generators on the engines as well as AC? How long would the battery last?
3) DID MH370 fly streight towards an airport on its initial turn, or towards nowhere?
Hello Sir, 1) the transponder button was turned to stbby and not to altoff... So everything was set to off only. 2) The speed used above approximately FL300 is the MACH. And the ADSB data is the mach 0.82 is always present until cut-off.3)VX is the best angle speed for climb and VY is the best sped of climb.There are not indicated air speed.4)We do not have secondary radar data after 17h20'34", only a mix of primary civilian approach and military primary radar spots.5)(for me) all main, Back up and APU generation was disconnected.A windmill Ram Air Turbine was automatically extended and supplied all primary systems (flight controls, instruments etc, for manual flight) before RAT extension 2 batteries supply main sytems.After, it assist the RAT.Without the RAT battery could be used for 10 min only.On the RAT the plane can fly for a long time.6)the plane has turned around turn south to the Thai border. The Kota Bharu airport was located in the region (but it was closed). The plane never transmitted an emergency message or made an emergency descent even though numerous means were available.Capt PAT😀
Three posts i've made questioning the data have disapeared streight away; This one might disapear as well.
Thats strange. Who are you?@zeroanimation3956 @@patgros9273
Hi, i just started on the 777 wiring manuals. my manuals are for G-RAES, a 777-200 (239) .
I can confirm the VHF are all supplied by independant DC busses, but I don't have the source diagrams for where
these supplies are obtained. i need more books.
Second thing I noticed is SATCOM beam stearing, I wasn't aware the satcom used beam stearing, I don't know where
satcom beam stearing gets its stearing data. I mention this, as the satcom re-tasks the satelite when the aircraft
changes direction. Could this be a satcom with no stearing data for the antenna?@@patgros9273
hello=>VHF1= 28VDC Capt flight Inst Bus =>VHF2 28VDC Left Main VHF 3 28VDC Right Main.There are 2 Satcom antenna:low gain and high gain.They get attitude from Inertial data trhough AIMS1+2.Capt Pat😁
Great presentation thank you. The pilot apparently went as far as reformatting the HDD on his PC according to comments below. Why would anyone do this unless they wanted to erase all evidence of the plan from the flight sim.
indeed, if you're interested, he erased 5 of his 6 hard drives, and even he erased 77 of his connection identifiers or passwords... but he forgot the cache memory of his PC, which betrayed it.Capt pat😉
I'm not sure if there's any cover up by the Malaysian authorities in 2014... especially politically, given his reported support of the opposition leader and party then (who was about to be imprisoned), and who is now the current PM. But certainly there's a need to really find out from the wife, family and close associates about his mental state and possible motivations for this act.
@@96kyhyou are right...wife...and close female friend...capt pat🤔
Great presentation. Everything seems very plausible and in line with the data. Except for one thing:
It seems unlikely to me that a selected track of 178 was kept for a very long time while disappearing into the indian ocean. Being a pilot myself I would certainly choose 180. Why off by two degrees from going south?
Did you check your model against the waypoints in antarctica that the captain used in his sim (McMurdo Base)? Maybe they lign up with your track? Cause LNAV to a far away point would seem plausible. If he used selected track I am sure 99% would use 180 unless 178 has a meaning for him or anything like that.
Hello...he didn't choose 178°TRUE...He used 188°MAG long time and until approaching hi declination zone.(if you stay in "mag" with high declination the aircraft will turn to follow decreasing déclination)Around 23°South ,declination its around - minus 10°,he only switched "on" mag/true selector and the aircraft changed track reference from "Track Mag Sel" in "Track True Hold" Nothing is different and the aircraft fly straight ahead on 178°TRUE.
In my "theory"no need to use any waypoint if you want to go in the middle of nowhere...You "set" a track to south Indian Ocean that's all...no need LNAV navigation for dying.I dont thin k i wanted to go to the south pole,but in the middle of Indian ocean not to be found.regards Capt pat😀
I just wonder how he came up with that heading. Most pilots I observe, if they use selected heading or track, will choose in increments of ten or at least five. 180, 190, maybe 185 and 195. I think its odd to select heading 188 unless someone navigates to a certain position or flies in LNAV. And when Pilot switches to TRUE, if that turns out to be 178, i couldnt help myself and select 180.
One more thought: I like that you considered the emer elec configuration in the beginning of the "hijack". But did you consider the extra fuel burn for the extended RAT in your calculations? I dont know the numbers for B777 but for A350 for example the books say its 3% extra burn. That will defenitely lead you to a different end point compared to no RAT theorys.
no, you didn't listen to the conference carefully. He took a heading of 188 to "avoid" a storm southwest of Banda Aceh, and he kept it.
I flew for over 43 years and I didn't display my headings in increments of 10 by 10 but in what I needed to refine my trajectory. Have a nice day capt Pat😀
@ In the Boeing documentation there is absolutely nothing marked for the over consumption of the RAT. I remind you that this consumption is a function of the drag of the RAT and therefore of the effort provided because it has a "variable pitch". After the IGARI turn it provided no hydraulic pressure because the engines were running. Only a little minimal electricity because I consider that all the current was "cut".. but then... the reduction in fuel consumption at because of all the electricity cut off is it taken into account in the other direction? You see we can discuss for a long time like that. In reality I did calculations on the end and I found a overconsumption of 0.9% on the trajectory south.So roughly +300kg compared to the consumption curves.(+3% seems a lot to me on Airbus..I flew 21 years on all types of Airbus and I don't remember this figure, it would be necessary which I check, but I have not done an A350 which has many more electrical systems than an old generation B777)capt Pat😀
The pilot wasn't 'experimented', he was 'experienced'.
no.. what they mean is that there would have been some inherent knowledge to do such a thing.. which is why I think it leans towards a military operation and not a pilot hijacking
@@moosesnWoop Who else than pilot have knowledge :
- to switch off manually the transponder
- to deactivate manually ACARS
- to refuse using 3 radio sets and the onboard satellite phone ?
Yeah they obviously meant "experienced", and actually say it correctly at 12:23. It's just french people being french ;-)
Note: if you translate "experienced" to french using google translate it gives "expérimenté" (in the masculine case), and if you then translate that back to english using google translate it offers "experimented" as the primary translation.
thanks!! sorry for my bad english language....happy new year.Capt .Pat
What could be the motivation for the pilot to go through so much of this manipulation? Is this only to add intrigue to his legacy by not leaving any trace behind?
no, there is nothing abnormal in his insurance or inheritance. Perhaps his family life is a little difficult. However, he wanted to disappear to a place where no one would go looking for him (he thought they would look for him at sea). of China).He did everything to leave no trace but he forgot two things: the cache memory of his empty PC, and the satellite pings of which he was unaware of the existence which betrayed him.😉Pat
@@patgros9273 Pat, wouldn't the pilot have known that military radar would see his journey atleast upto and through the Malacca Strait in a north west direction? Why would he believe they will search in South China Sea?
because the procedure if you "lose" a plane is to search along its "flight plan", not behind it...
As for the military, there are many radar echoes. And if no echo is a "threat" (i.e. it enters your area without being identified), then they take care of it. It remained in Malaysia almost all the time on normal air routes... So no "proven" threat as the minister said and no interception.😀Pat
@@patgros9273 nah that implicitly means that the pilot would have a deep understanding on military protocols, radar systems and available assets to deploy.
dear sir because you did not listen or understand well. The serial number theory is a well-known conspiracy theory and which is false. French justice affirmed that it was indeed from aviation and recently a specialist demonstrated that there were several identifiable serial numbers and not just one type number www.youtube.com/@Nicolas-ux7ip
You should not listen to a journalist without checking.capt Pat
If this South Indian Ocean trajectory is correct, I am really puzzled by what could be the intention of the pilot/whoever was flying that aircraft after IGARI.
hello..This Captain patrick's reply.jean luc was part of a previous group (captio) which worked on an action committed by one or more terrorists. This option having been abandoned he came to join me on a theory of a person who would have taken control of the The plane flew to IGARI and took him to the southern Indian Ocean (caption today). We have many elements which prove that everything comes from a voluntary action. The person would have wanted to "end with life" and doing the maximum effort not to let anyone know that she had taken this plane to this place. Have a good evening Capt Pat😊
As a lifelong aviation enthusiast I have seen many videos on YT as to what might have happened to MH370. The authors of this presentation have done a lot of hard work and they should be congratulated. Going through the information we have, there are a few glaring questions that stick out :
1) If this was a murder suicide mission by the captain of this flight who went to meticulous ends to suppress his tracks in the air, why was he not-so meticulous with the evidence he left behind at his home simulator cockpit?
2) We all remember the vivid images on television of the rudder of AF 447 floating on the water in the Atlantic as the divers pulled it out, and a few dead bodies & debris floating as well. Why no such field of debris in this instance? The person at the commands of this 777 would have been smart enough to understand that in the southern Indian Ocean you ain't going to get a Hudson river landing strip. Remember the TV footage of the Ethiopian 767 that got hijacked & how it ditched on the water? Aeroplane parts scattered everywhere.
3) Given the air traffic in the vicinity of MH 370 after it went rogue in the straits of Malacca, did no other commercial flight see it on their radar? If Zahari was such a prolific local, wouldn't another captain try to make contact with him on the airbands & say hello?
4) If, as stated in this presentation, a portion of the final moments of this flight included an abrupt dive for a few seconds at very high rate of descent, wouldn't some parts of the aircraft have broken off ??
5) Have Boeing themselves confirmed that the aileron & flap belong to MH 370?
Best regards
1) he formatted his 5 HDD, but forgot shadow memories and investigator found 7 coordinates inside.He forgot to erase them, and no have idea about Inmarsat pings we helped us to reconstruct the trajectory. 2)We think he carried out a soft (as he could) ditching.=>few debris and no fuel/oil spill 3)no radio contact in flight between commercial aircraft so as not to clutter the frequencies.(only on ATC request for emergency) 4) we think he performed a high dive descent for 30 seconds only ,and reached maximum bearable speed for the aircraft (340kts IAS).We dont think he lost some aircraft parts.The 2018 searches didn't found the aircraft below this descend place near arc7.This would mean that he continued the descent by gliding.5) French prosecutor said the flaperon comes from the right MH370 aircraft.We found after several serial numbers on this part.They confirmed to us its the right flaperon. cheers Pat😄
@@patgros9273 The flaperon has no identifiable serial number related to MH370. Only the part serial number which traces back to 777 flaperon, thus from deduction the only missing 777 is MH370, so it has to be.
The data from flight simulator was recovered by the FBI and given to Malaysia several months later. They used the data from 7 points, yet do not know when or how exactly he set up the data.. so it's entire speculation. There was however a flight to Saudi Arbia set up from KL, for his flight in two weeks time.. so he was practicing that route which he was going to fly a few weeks later.. why?
@@moosesnWoop don't forget that he also erased his hard drives and log ins. I guess he practiced a later flight cause he wasn't sure if he really wanted to go through with everything. from what I've heard so far, that's not that uncommon regarding suicide.
@@mb2776Possible, anything can be true. The FBI are telling us this info btw.
Added to this, he did fly this same flight, on the same route a month prior! So this time, it was a SECOND flight on the same route.
For me, being no note, no clear indication of suicide + his presitige, I'm not leaning on Sucide, but i didn't know the guy
and what I mean by that is that the South China Sea(scs) is highly monitored at that time. or any time since. So is the Malacca strait.
Both high traffic volumes, and monitored by several countries. A 777 going "dark" + flying through airspaces unchallenged is the most suspect thing.
imo I think he was talking to miltary but had comms switched to normal radio, and said "MH370 goodnight" on the wrong channel, i mean why randomly call out your flight level and speed if not to notify someone else? Also to physically press the push to talk button etc.
As stated in the video, MH370 could have been at any of the points as shown by flight paths along the 7 arcs depending on speed. But, given the proposed location stated in this video and ocean currents and where the flapperon was actually found, this location is the most probable area where the aircraft is located. Any other locations on the 7th arc would diminish the probability of debris reaching the beach where they were found!!!
No sir...the sea currents are not identical depending on where the plane fell. Australian oceanographers said that above 32° South and below 39° South the debris would have been towards the east and therefore Australia. Between these two coordinates towards the West and therefore towards Africa and Madagascar.Capt pat😀
@@patgros9273 INMARSAT data made flight over Australia impossible!
@@LWRC Dear sir..or did you see that I said that MH 370 flew over Australia?🤨Capt Pat
@@patgros9273 Can't connect the dots??!!! The only way it could have landed at that location off the shores of Australia is if it flew over Australia! Or did it fly around the entire globe instead via the South Pole??!!!
I think you didn't understand anything sir..look again at MH370 Raes 7th september.thank you.capt pat🤥
Why do these specialists avoid the very first Satellite video, which shows three Orbs circling the plane until the plane disappears into a portal?
Nobody talks about this, not even Diego Garcia, the secret military base with various facilities. The plane came close to that area. Can these specialists who present this video no longer be trusted?
Not that they cant be trusted but they do not have physical evidence or verificable proof that it happened that way.
@@eljaviv9276 There is proof of the orbs and the portal.
@@dontessers9561 No...video debunked by video and aviation specialists.
but did he loop the loop like sky king?
Its very simple to find what happend to MH370 because it is possible to track passenger cell phones using their IMEI numbers. The cell phone service provider or law enforcement has the ability to do so. You can also use a "phone lookup service" to locate any phone number any where in the world. Unfortunately governments dont want us to know what happend to this flight.
Didn't that F-35 that sank in the Mediterranean recently show how far a plane can glide underwater? The search area needs to include that distance.
Also, I think Malaysia needs to get behind the search - ironically, to CLEAR the pilot's name. Because as it is right now, it looks like he murdered 239 people, including himself. But if we can find more evidence, maybe there's more to this story than we currently know. Maybe we'll find some circumstances that clear his name - some evidence that he was compelled to do this, or had some impairment of thought that broke his inhibitions, or even someone else was at the controls. But it's hard to imagine anything could make the picture any worse for him at this point.
At any rate, as for who's model is right - there's only one way to find out.
Anyways - I'm greatly impressed by the "switching course from magnetic to true bearing" bit. I think that's brilliant. But also, if he's trying to make the plane disappear, he could be aiming for the deepest area or somewhere geologically active, or just trying to go as far as possible.
Is Ocean infinity aware of this lecture and the experts information in this video?
there are so many different theories that ocean infinity does not want to take sides with anyone. They are waiting for the authorities to ask them to go get the plane😁Pat
Can James Cameron head down to the west coast of Australia with his DSRV and search the WSPR data area. Its only 8 Square Kms would take like a week
@@SeargentBarnes Hello sergeant..James Cameron does what he wants.no problem for me doing research with the WSPR results.I wish him good luck!🙂Capt pat
Tony Romeo, CEO of Deep Sea Vision (DSV) will find it. He may have just found Amelia Earhart’s plane.
Espérons de pouvoir retrouver cet avion en 2024, cela pourra confirmer certaines hypothèses et donner une idée aux familles des victimes de ce qu'il s'est passé.
J'espère qu'ils exploreront ta zone, Patrick.
Jérôme C.
Salut Jérôme merci pour le commentaire! Oui, espérons qu'on pourra enfin retrouver cet avion cette année... ou la prochaine..tout dépend des autorités! Bonne année!!Patrick😃
Whoever did this did not want a huge debris field visible from space.
that's right ! and leave as little floating debris as possible and no visible fuel slick!capt Pat😀
The comparison to the AF crash makes no sense, it was not deliberately caused by the pilots. This is just as much an air crash investigation as it is a criminal one, you obviously need to consider the human factor - and if pure data crunch worked the plane would have been found by now.
An impressive presentation, but obviously we won't know how accurate it was until we find the wreckage. Let's hope it happens soon.
Indeed, we took the human factor into account (this is my role as pilot) and we also corroborated these with data analyses.capt Pat😀
To react to Don Thompson, the study here is the more likely I have ever known. I also determined early that there was someone at the control of the aircraft and also we have to consider this at the end.
Patrick Blelly‘s approach is more rational than an only mathematical approach. The IG have always considered a not piloted aircraft at the end and, in my point of view, this is a close-minded approach.
I do agree. Don Thompson, as a member of the IG, is bound to defend their synopsis, despite it being incorrect in many areas. It is clear to the believers that MH370 DID NOT experience a death spiral. MH370 ditched, the only contentious thing for me was whether it broke up or remained intact whilst doing so. I say intact. Also, it is very clear neither the flaperon or flap piece show signs of flutter. To think this is a ridiculous notion! The IG need to go back to their drawing board... oh, hold on, Jean-Luc & Patrick have done all the hard work for them now. There is no doubt the Malaysian authorities need to take notice of the sublime research contained in this presentation! Perhaps they might search at my location too, 900km further to the south west..
Good video, but I dont understand what the motive of Christmas Island would be and the risks involved? Flying deep into the India Ocean makes "more sense" despite the unbelievable lack of evidence. The only motive we know today is that someone wants to "let MH370 dissapear" to avoid detection, radars, other airplanes flying deep south into the deep ocean makes way more sense right?
the version of Christmas Island was that of the Captio group which no longer exists. Today the site is kept under the name of caption and we think the plane was towards the south of the Indian Ocean. Have a nice day
@@patgros9273 alright, what made us move away from Christmas Island?
@@PLou-ne9jb and well because there was not the beginning of a clue or proof that he wanted to go there..no terrorist on the plane, no demands, he did not head towards Chritmas, he would never have seen it land there and even less take off again at night... etc... We don't have a single element that supports this thesis. On the other hand, we have a lot for a route to the south of the Indian Ocean. have a good day Capt Pat😃
Could have done without defeatist Don Thompson. I couldn’t care less about what he “contends”. What? Does he work for the insurance company? This detailed analysis is the best and I have hope they will find the plane because of it. F Don Thompson.
I still dont understand why didnt The Malaysian Air Force did not send air force plane to investigate a radar blip on their scope west of Penang .
Only a handful of aircraft. No pilots lived on base, so there was no priority for such events.
The aviation system operates far from perfect because it’s at the mercy of human behavior.
Passing Igari: What about the copilot? Did he not contest the decision of the captain. Surely there would be at least a verbal communication between them. Surely the copilot would have called for a mayday.
yes of course...if he had been in the cockpit he could have...we think he was in the aft cabin for different reasons when this happened. That's why he lit his mobile phone to "try" to contact someone outside, when he saw Penang island lights ,to say that something abnormal was probably happening on board. There was no other reason justifying the use of his mobile in flight.Capt Pat😊
Thanks Capt Pat. 👍
Most probably the Captain told him to take a bathroom break, and locked him out of the cockpit, while also depressurising the aircraft to silence everyone on board who wasn't wearing a pilot's oxygen mask. The same tactic was used by the Germanwings pilot to lock the co-pilot out of the cockpit.
@@ajs41 a bathroom break or to go for a coffe break..You are right..same Germanwings and Air Mozambique also...Cheers pat Pat🙂
Giving pilot all the control is a big mistake
Only landing and take off leave it to pilot
All the other controllers should be automatically fed into the system
Big risk with that, because computer hackers could easily take over planes, or hijackers in the air traffic control buildings.
The analysis is very good, but it's beyond me to believe that he tried a soft ditching at the end. Why would anyone who commits suicide prefer a slow horrible death by drowning to a fast get it over and done with dive bomb impact? Wouldn't that be the whole point of using an aircraft as suicide instrument? Slow drowning you can get anywhere for free but with a vertical impact you're gone in milliseconds.
no one ever said he died from drowning. There are lots of ways to commit suicide sir!!🙃Capt pat
@@patgros9273 you seem to have missed the point I was trying to make, of course there are many ways to commit suicide, but it's not necessary for those to hijack a plane, you could do them anywhere at any time and without killing another 239 people.
But if you hijack a plane to commit suicide and then ditching it softly is the stupidest thing one can imagine since it's forfeiting the very possibility of using the aircraft itself as the suicide weapon by simply nose diving to the ground at Mach1 as has been demonstrated in so many similar cases, e.g. Lubitz, China Eastern 5735, LAM 470, Egypt Air 990, etc.
A soft ditching defeats the entire purpose for a quick and easy end, which must have been one of the reasons to do it in the first place, and exchanging it for the certainty of becoming ship wrecked and marooned and having to face a slow death by starvation, drowning or getting eaten by sharks, it's just absurd.
The only case I can imagine for soft ditching to make sense would be to meet another party which would pick him up by boat.
The irony is that it is the perpetrator who had the most painful death of all onboard.
It takes a nutcase to want to commit suicide by drowning (assuming he survived the somewhat failed ditching)
succeeding in a landing with waves of 3 m high is not easy for any pilot in the world. Moreover, he died of drowning, you are the one who says it. There are lots of other ways to die without suffering ..😪capt pat
He probably died from crash injuries, not drowning. Even a "soft landing" would still be pretty hard.
@@ajs41 nobody knows..his choice...have a good day Capt pat☺
Bonsoir Patrick,
Merci pour le partage cette vidéo et de cette conférence c’est une pure approche factuelle où l’apport de l’expérience du pilote est de grande valeur et maximise l’analyse des experts et des ingénieurs. J’ai travaillé 40 ans chez un très grand motoriste international au support de grandes compagnies aériennes d’une grande partie du monde. Je travaillais au quotidien avec les pilotes, les ops, la maintenance, la logistique, etc j’ai côtoyé des personnes de différentes origines, nationalités qui m’ont beaucoup appris. Tout cela pour vous dire que je partage tout à fait votre point de vue. Seul un pilote expérimenté a pu préparé ce triste vol avec autant de précision et de « furtivité »Je pense comme vous que ce pilote est resté jusqu’au bout au contrôle de sa machine.
Dommage que certains préfèrent l’approche complotiste à l’expérience et l’expertise. Espérons que les données seront retrouvées tôt ou tard et que la lumière sera faite afin que cette situation ne se reproduise plus.
Bonne continuation.
Merci l'ami!😀 Nous faisons le maximum pour se rapprocher de la vérité ; bien sûr,seule la boite noire "le dira",mais en attendant, nous devons relier des faits connus a des hypothèses entre chaque, pour reconstruire une trajectoire plausible et donc essayer de trouver une zone d'impact "possible" pour les futures recherches!!On ne recherche aucune gloire médiatique.Capt pat😅
Does this analysis corroborate the WSPR analysis, or does it contradict it?
Also, do you have any comments regarding the theoretical flight paths heading south in this analysis; They are assumed to be straight lines heading in the southern direction... but the WSPR analysis shows many, many zig zags all along the southern flight path. Those zig zags would likely decrease the distance this plane would actually fly with respect to the straight flight paths. The implication is that your straight flight paths may predict a location that is too far south?
Thank you for all of your hard work.
We leave Mr Godfrey responsible for the proposed trajectory "WSPR". We do not agree with him. Indeed, numerous "zig zags" would reduce the distance traveled towards the south. Its point of impact 29S 100E is not corroborated with all the data that we present in our study (# Inmarsat data, Pleiades, cosmo CSIRO etc...)pat🙂
WSPRnet data analysis has been widely discredited & must be ignored! MH370 is somewhere other than where Richard Godfrey says it is..
Which WSPR analysis? RG has done three of them so far, all with vastly different endpoints?
@@TWCobra Yes, & for good reason.. it's bogus ! WSPR cannot locate MH370. The plane is somewhere between where Jean-Luc & Patrick and myself say it is. RG is well off the mark..
all af them..I m not sure we can locate MH370 with WSPR..But its a théory.I think that the day we resume research, all solutions will have to be explored😇Pat
Does the soft ditching mean it was possible for surviving the impact? That is the only thing I’m trying get around is why the pilot would choose a slower death (if survivable)
* I’m picturing Hudson River ditching
good evening...I think it was possible to survive a voluntary ditching. But I'm not sure he wanted it...However, no one will ever know how the person in command died. All assumptions are just speculation.🙂Pat
Possibly, but the passengers would likely have died from hypoxia long before, as the captain would presumably have depressurized the cabin to ensure sole control of the aircraft.
This is exactly what we say in our presentation, to neutralize everyone on the plane he depressurized it and they fell into hypoxia and with its inevitable consequences.Pat😀
It wasn't a soft impact or a survivable ditching. The fuselage must have broken into several pieces upon impact with the water. Anyone still alive would have been knocked unconscious and drowned or they were killed by blunt force trauma from the impact itself. Most likely everyone had already died from hypoxia hours before.
of course....if you have watched the video carefully we explain that the impact broke the plane into "several" pieces in accordance with what the specialist Mr Argiris Kamoulakos says (1h08'05"). And if you have listened carefully to what we said "at the beginning", everyone on board had died from depressurisation of course....according to our theory. Have a good day Capt Pat😇
Truly impressive video.
Couple of doubts-
-Do military radar of other countries accomply thr radar data submitted by malasian military radar.
-If the satellites call logged the location why wasn't more calls attempted to the cockpit, like half an hourly or something?
- does rolls Royce wheels have live gprs tracking.
- in the era and age are we still dependent on pilot to switch off all communication especially location tag- aren't we supposed to have multi functional systems that will work even if most systems lose power or are cut off power?
To Jean-Luc/Patrick: Pleased to say I am in agreement now on overall scenario pilot-to-end, however, at the moment I favor a different end point scenario, initial descent probably starting Arc5/fuel remains at Arc7.
Well done for your research work. We are happy to see other people looking for answers to this matter. The published Inmarsat data are compatible with our start of descent between arc 6 and 7. Your conclusions are different from ours.good luck to you! Patrick😀
You didn't find the plane after 9 years, this isn't 2014. They searched everywhere. If the plane crashed into the SIO, the debris field would have been seen. Stop pushing this fictional scenario. The cover up wasn't even good. I dismantled it with just a Twitter Account and google. Did you even ever once look at the ping data? I highly doubt it, because no one could miss the anomalies in it in the exact point at 18:40UTC that the plane 'turned into the south indian ocean.'@@patgros9273
Question? How strong is the cockpit door? How long to take to break in?
If this is a pilot suicide (likely) it was very well planned out. Who was the beneficiary of his life insurance? He must want that person to keep the money badly
There is no perfect murder plot…hopefully the truth will catch up to whoever did this
The cockpit doors have been reinforced since 9/11. The main thing is to find a serious tool to break it, and above all that someone is able to do it. I don't think it was, because depressurised everyone was seated and tied with the O² mask on their face until....this was verified by the Malaysians there was no "particular" life insurance. Only the "normal" for pilots in the event of an accident should exist. As you sites there is no perfect measure. would have been if he had not forgotten data in his computer and knew that there were ping satellites, which betrayed him! Capt Pat😊
@1:05:19 adding contingency search area of 850 nautical square miles that were previously not searched!!!!
That's not missing the final aircraft ditching point by a little bit, not even a country mile, it needs to be searched and will probably take weeks!!!
The presentation is done very well with excellent explanations of the aspects. I agree with the pilot in command to the end and controlled ditching of the aircraft south of the 7th arc. The aircraft range used in the presentation is from appendix 1.6e of the official investigation report which has been shown to be inaccurate because it was based on standard day atmospheric conditions rather than the actual atmospheric conditions. The mach numbers and ground speeds are not accurately represented in the diagrams in that appendix. Also the positive fuel savings effect of flying without electrical generation and pressurization for a significant part of the flight have not been included which probably means the aircraft track would have been further to the west and further south. The reference to the simulator flight is interesting although this simulated flight was reconstructed from individual unrelated data points and only after the aircraft was suspected of flying to the Southern Indian Ocean making making this piece of evidence much less credible. The position at 35 south and 93 east would have put the aircraft in daylight at 8:11 in the morning and since this area is a prime fishing zone with multiple ships on site at the time, the aircraft would probably have been seen by someone at that location. Again the video is good overall In concept, the data used to support the final location should be validated further.
hello! Thank you for your comments on our concept.We know about Boeing table and its standard day data are not correct from the "beginning" of our study ,and we didnt use it.We calculated own Mach and fuel consumption in réel weather conditions of the day.We checked fuel with 3 differents systems.The fuel saving for one hour depressurisation and electric load is low and a little compensated by RAT extension;it too long to talk about it here.The waypoints were calculated with aeronautical calculations with real fuel average consumption of the day estimated and real flight time,and they matches with Inmarsat data.Our POI zone is close from 8.5km of CSIRO POI estimated (report III).Im very surprised fishermen with multiple ships where on this site at this time,I never read something about it or any report.I m surprised they didnt saw any debris.For me, sunrise was at 11.39Pm 7th march and not really full day light, but low on the horizon.But the numerous probable pieces of debris to the northwest of this area a few days later (Pleiades+cosmo) point to a crash in this area.Thanks for your precisions !Our study is not the truth, but a study. Pat😀
You're saying sunrise was at 8:11am? At 93 east it would have been 1 hour before that (at 40,000ft), a little less at 30,000ft. The plane would never have been that far east. I do agree with you though that the plane was most likely further west & south due to efforts at fuel saving, e.g. cost index of zero & electrical systems shutdown, but certainly the Boeing endurance data used was not relevant to that flight..
@@patgros9273 Yes, Patrick, there are popular fishing grounds around that area. Last year I looked at that location & there was about 10 boats across about 5,000km squared, although this is not to say there was 10 boats at that location on the morning of the 8th March 2014, but there may have been some (perhaps none?). The ATSB did check for merchant boats in the area (there was only 1 close by) but I'm not sure if they checked for fishing boats in the area? No sighting in the southern Indian Ocean has ever been noted so if there were boats they did not see the plane because they were nowhere close to the POI..
@@patgros9273 Thanks for thé response. It is interesting that even though you claim to use your own fuel range analysis the point of fuel exhaustion is exactly the same as where is would have been had you just used the appendix 1.6e data. This would mean the fuel level at 18:28 UTC was the same as in the appendix? Why is it not different if you used actual atmospheric conditions. In the presentation, you mention that all 4 generators are turned off and the RAT was deployed. It is only necessary to turn off the 2 main generators to cut communications, the aircraft could then be flown on the two standby generators without deploying the RAT. I think this is more likely scenario. Lastly there was no reason to stay at FL 300 for the flight, better range would have been achieved at higher altitudes and speeds resulting in a track further west and south and still meet the BFO AND BTO requirements. I would be interested in the result of an analysis if these parameters were adjusted and the simulator track was considered less credible.
@@mickeysmiths I am not stating that the sunrise was at 8:11 local all I ment was that at 8:11 local time, when the aircraft crossed the 6th arc, it was well after sunrise and the aircraft was in daylight. Prior to that anyone looking from the west would see the contrails glowing orange in the light from the rising sun.
By 18:20 hrs everyone but the pilot was dead from hypoxia.
Assuming the pilot committed suicide, a question I have and psychologists or lawyers may answer: why did he try to conceal his suicide and make a whole aircraft disappear vs. crashing the plane directly …? To escape liability and dishonor for himself and his family? Does this tells us about the pilot mindset?
I think (in my opinion) that he did not want to know that he was responsible for this disaster and that his family cannot bear the consequences. Afterwards...the reason which made him do this belongs to him. We can only make assumptions based on the elements we have.Capt Pat😀
@@patgros9273 I agree we can only make assumptions, from a legal standpoint I would assume that so far and since nobody actually knows what happened the pilot cannot be held accountable ( gross negligence or downright murder with malice aforethought) and probably some benefits accruing upon his death in the course of his employment may still stand and be payable to his family. I have no knowledge of Malaysian Labor Law however.
These legal considerations could maybe (if I am correct) explain why he exerted so much skill and care to make the plane disappear ( including piloting the aircraft until the very end to attempt a controlled ditching to reduce the number of parts after impact). Thanks you for answering the messages here and for the presentation, I find it excellent.
thank you for your appreciation. In our presentation I never cite the responsibility of the pilot, but of the "person in charge" because I know very well that the first lawyer who comes along will come at me with the very famous "you accuse without proof! and you don't have the right!"On the other hand, as the gendarmes say, we have a large body of presumption which leaves practically no doubt. Have a good day.Capt Pat☺
I don't think the 'evidence' being used to speculate that this pilot intentionally killed himself and everyone onboard would even be enough to gain a probable cause warrant in the US. And frankly, this seems like an oddly timed propaganda campaign that doesn't prove anything that hasn't already been refuted elsewhere. It's unethical to offer this pilot up as a scapegoat for this.
@@possumfriend2335 I agree with you one cannot just out of the blue pretend that the pilot killed himself with everybody on board just like that. I only assume from a legal view point what if the pilot had really wanted to kill himself he would perhaps have proceeded in such a way that his suicide could not be established in order to protect his family - hence the aircraft vanishing in southern Indian Ocean with no tangible proof of the pilot having committed suicide. However this is a possible scenario, we do not know enough about this man and I believe psychologists could maybe help here because frankly from what I learned about this man: a smart skilled pilot admired by his peers and in particular by Malaysian Chief Pilot … being a father … I cannot see why he would have committed suicide. This is for me what makes the suicide scenario highly questionnable. Therefore engineers have spoken, now maybe psychologists could speak??
Two-part question- If the plane wreckage lies anywhere within that box adjacent to the 7th Arc, do you actually believe the US Navy wouldn’t have cross-crossed and discovered it within the last decade? And if not, why not?
Lastly- What conclusion would you draw if a comprehensive search of your designated box would come up empty?
I am not aware that the US Navy has done research on the seabed in this location. I think they have other things to do. For the second question, if the plane is not at this location. place we will have made a mistake, and I will be sorry. But at least we will have "tried" to do something to find it. This is not the case for everyone. Moreover, we do this "benevolently" to the good of the families of the victims. What can we be blamed for?Capt Pat😑
@@patgros9273Not sure of your background Capt Pat, but I served in the US Navy and have some background and knowledge on the subject. The deployment and operations of submarines has always been of the highest most secretive nature. To believe that an exhaustive secretive effort hadn’t been made outside the public sphere, is to have neither understanding of the scope of operations, deployment of resources, technical underwater capabilities, nor a sense of how such clandestine missions are carried out routinely as part of regular military readiness.
@@DSW964 ok..no problem..may be they went there...but as i know no aircraft found.. good evening capt pat
@@DSW964I don’t think capability and prior history of similar missions lend any more credibility to the theory it happened unless you have actual knowledge it happened. Do you?
@@Danimalpm1Two different things… Not having direct knowledge of highest level classified operations vs predicting the likelihood of such operations having been conducted based on technological and historical evidence. A seriously flawed approach not to account for this in weighing the likelihood that the wreckage will be discovered anywhere near these “new” 7th arc related projections.
44:21 it's at this point that we have those MQ1 reaper drone IR and the two satellite videos supposedly leaked by someone in the US SIGNIT force. I'm rewatching a lot of these older videos with that new context.
What does this mean
@@os3990Look up ashton forbes. Hes appeared on a number of podcasts discussing the videos. On the more outlandish side, but govts lie, so who knows at this point, but its a fascinating watch.
@@os3990 there was some videos that came out in 2014 showing a 777 type plane 'disappearing'.
The video data suggests that it was filmed in the Adamen sea. We only know it was filmed there because we investigated and figured out the satellites then retraced it back.
@@moosesnWoop do you mean actually disappearing on the video? I have not heard of this so very interesting. Also do you have a link? Thanks
@@os3990 yes, when I saw the satellite video in 2015 I dismissed it, then I saw a month ago another video. Check out Ashton Forbes MH370
The guy from the independence in the end was just annoying. Just say what you want to say, not wasting our time stumpling about.
if you bore sir you should not watch youtube...We have tried to develop and give explanations to everything we put forward..on the contrary the other versions demonstrate little or nothing...😐Pat
19:06 I think that this is a very important point, because he also avoids other ADIZ when leaving Adamen Sea. Do all pilots know this? Are they taught this? Is it common knowlegde etc?
these things make it seems like it's more a military operation than pilot hijacking
You really do not know how pilots work.... ADIZ is drawn on our maps, and of course WE know what ADIZ is and how to use it (exemple India and Pakistan where ADC air defence clearance number is required)
@@bricedesmaures6216I don't know anything about what is being said here but I will say I think this person is asking a legitimate question and not trying to be adversarial. Just my take sir
@@Jason5000 You should better know the guy and his former comments here and on others video....just my take sir.
@@bricedesmaures6216 oh I didn’t know there was a history..my bad
@@bricedesmaures6216 what?
You FAIL to include that at that point he had NO electircal, so tell me again how he a) knew planes were flying towards him (two planes) and NAVIGATE the flight routes expertly enough to know where to be an when?
It's a military operation. "ADIZ is drawn on our maps, and of course WE know what ADIZ is and how to use it "
what maps in the cockpit?
LOL and even then, an non-responsive plane flying across your country and you don't dispatch jets?
Flys over Penang Island, home of 5 eyes intellegence, and they do nothing?
LOL
Great presentation, I am non-aviation background, Friends my question is # What is the reason Boeing cannot confirm whether =THE FLAP ( BROKEN WINGS ) FOUND IS OR IS NOT OF THEIR MANUFACTURING OF MH 370 FLIGHT .
hello the flaperon is comes from the MH 370 B777.French prosecutor confirmed that on DGA official report and a new a video is available (sorry only in French) but you can watch it.Capt Pat😊
ruclips.net/video/EMX0IU1oSMs/видео.html&ab_channel=Nicolas
Following are few lines from authentification document of "flaperon" issued by manufacterer ADS (Airbus Defence Space) identification made by internal endoscopy of flaperon:
""ADS proceeded to trace the Serial Numbers that appeared in the photographs, and as a result of it, we can ensure that the flaperon assembly was delivered to Boeing in 2002, with destination to MSN 404, allocated to customer MAS (Malasyan airlines) unit number WB175. See annex 2, 3 and 4."
I’m curious as to how much time transpired from the moment the plane took that u-turn until the co-pilot’s phone tried to connect? To me… that means he was still alive until that moment… which tells me others could have been alive too… IF he wasn’t in the cockpit… when he made that call. IF!!!
Assuming the co-pilot was locked out before the turn & he either didn’t think to try & call anyone using his cell phone until then… or the plane was too high & he was trying to connect all along & it didn’t connect until the plane dropped to 32,000 feet… it still leaves many unanswered questions.
I wonder if all of the others were already dead by then… or not… because they would have tried to break the door down, IMO. So it is possible the co-pilot was in the cockpit all along & a pill was dropped into his coffee long before the turn & he woke up slightly later on & made the call while in a drugged state.
I think it was too risky for the co-pilot to get locked out. I further think the passengers had no clue what was going on when they fell asleep. Probably most of them except the crew were already asleep being that it was a red-eye. To alert them by co-pilot was a risk. Just my opinion. It seems like an accepted theory that he was locked out… but I’m not so sure.
Remember, it was the pilot’s voice on the final transmission. Plus he keyed up before he needed to & made an unnecessary transmission to ATC… prior to his final transmission. I think that was a factor of some sort in all of this, as well.
The pilot was either not as clever as he thought he was… or he was too clever for his own good… depending on how u view it. Either way… he did not cover his tracks as successfully as he planned to.
I believe the plane will eventually be found. I don’t expect we will ever know what really happened… when they do find it.
hello..our théorie :depressurisation at 17h25 after Uturn...+ pax 22 minutes o²=17h46'...Copilot mobile connection 17h52'27" =+6minutes after maximum pax o².Capt pat🤫
There is also the possibility that the copilot had turned off Airplane mode before that but it finally caught some network at that moment
@@J.M.-xr6xg There is no trace of the co-pilot's phone before takeoff in Kuala Lumpur. He used it in the parking lot then turned it off. He was a student pilot and it was not really "planned" to turn it on this one in front of his instructor during his "last flight" of instruction. Moreover it was forbidden at the time. For me he was in a critical situation, without any means of communication (except this telephone on him) and he tried to send an emergency message, to say that something "not normal" was happening on board. (I don't see why he would have turned it on for another reason => to see photos we does not exit airplane mode) I remind you (in 2014) it was 2G and because of the Faraday effect, it was difficult at altitude (above 30K ft) to log a mobile , unless you place it against the porthole in "direct vision" of the ground antenna, if you have it in "visual range".cheers Capt Pat🙂
Thanks for your response. I meant that the copilot may have opened his phone 10 minutes before he got signal. He may have tried the whole time, and finally after some time, he pinged a phone mast.
It seems that we know when the phone pinged, but not when the copilot *started* trying.
@@J.M.-xr6xg that's true.We dont know the exact time.I think may be when copilot saw oxygen was low....capt pat🥲
I don't understand the basis for saying the aircraft had all the main generators turned off and was flying on the RAT for an extended period of time. Your basis for that was because you contend that the ACARS was turned off. However, there is no need to turn the ACARS off to stop it transmitting. There is a selection on the multi-function display on the Centre console that isolates the ACARS from the communication system. In my opinion that would have been the first switch moved by the hijacker. No need to turn the AC Generators off.
Mister cobra, we will not go into all the technical and other details here, but I will give you a main one: The satcom (which also works without ACARS) stopped "instantly". If it had been turned off, the information would have been sent to the ground and that was not the case. (reports 2015 Chp 1-9 p53 and 2018 p380). We have studied satcom very well, I reassure you and the fact that this happened like this is only possible by a "de-powering" of electrical energy. I quote the report: "If a manual disconnection had been initiated via the MCDU, a disconnection request should have been recorded in the GES log". Of course, there are always small specialists who will say that we can "sequence "the electrical network etc... With ARINC electronic buses it is very complicated with automatic re-powering (unless the CB was cut off but it was not accessible). Finally, given the "erratic" trajectory after the cut, I do not I don't think he could use the autopilot in this critical situation...so I think he didn't have the power to make it work. But after all, that's just my opinion...😀Pat
Excellent analysis adds more to the earlier RAeS "Plausible trajectory" theory. This surely is the definitive explanation of MH370. The balls/insanity of this pilot to pull off a deception of this magnitude is certainly disturbing. Flying with only the RAT for power for so long? Unbelievable. Also why is it only the French and RAeS and Eusa that are interested in doing this in-depth research, you would think it should be the Malaysian ATSB equivalent government body that should be doing this research..
I concur 100%. A lot of pundits believe MH370 disappeared as if by magic. They do not realise it was a long time in the planning. With an anlysis like J-Ls & Patricks MH370 will surely be found soon!
Hello, thank you for your comment.😀 Flying only on the RAT?...no problem! it's like a Cessna 172...easy, but with a good pilot at the controls!🤣 Why are only French men interested in this business? because we only used a pilot's vision + a fine specialist in radar and satellite data + known facts + known data + a few calculations, to understand this hijacking. This affair was imagined by a pilot, prepared by a pilot and executed by a pilot. that's all !🙄...No conspiracy, no CIA and others. I have great respect for all research scientists everywhere in the world, but in this case, the pilot's vision is more important to understand than all the actions that were performed in the cockpit that night of March 7th, 2014.😇
Ashton Forbes lines up a mass of evidence for what happened to the flight …
ah you're also here after seeing that. The videos Ashton presented starts around 44:21 - basically that descent and turn that is done is done here.
The strange thing is the supposed fires that was seen from the underbelly and the smoke out the back. I mean, Katie Lee was right there after all
ashton forbes is very interesting 100%
That guy's a nut job.
Your trajectory is no less plausible than theirs given that they obviously haven't found it..... I think you're on to something, let's hope they check the next time out.
.Thanks a lot. We are doing our best to help investigators find the plane.😀pat
I have to be honest and say that their previous theory and trajectory explained was much better. This one is basically aligned with current official narrative. For that reason, I would strongly advise you to read the following book: "The Disappearing Act" by Florence De Changy.
We are far from being aligned with the official discourse...read the reports! we are far from the "third party". On the other hand we are well aware of the complot theories of Ms. FDC where there is not the slightest beginning of demonstrable proof .Capt Pat🙂
She does not know aviation technology and the little she knows about, is transformed.
You are talking about a book plenty of mistakes and aeronautical incompetency.
Believe the guy who wrote a book to make money or the guys who effectively donated years of the lives to try to find the truth?
Yeah.
The book theory is full of holes.
Their previous Christmas Island theory made no sense at all to me. Why would he hijack the plane, attempt to land it at Christmas Island, but fail to do so? All the parts of that make no sense.
I don't get why none of the other passengers cell phone ping near Penang cell tower because generally not all passengers put their phone on airplane mode. Even if they are supposedly dead, shouldn't the phones try to automatically connect to a nearby tower if not put on airplane mode?
This question has been answered at least ten times ma'am..even if phones were stored on the Penang antenna, these were deleted because the Malaysian police at the beginning were only interested in those of the members of the crew. When they wanted to ask Celcom for the passengers the data had not been saved...capt pat😅
@@patgros9273 Ohh. Wasn't aware. Thanks
@@patgros9273 They actively decided to delete the information? That seems strange. I can understand them failing to view the data, but actually deleting it is another thing entirely.
@@ajs41 wich information?
@@ajs41 Generally, these data are stored for a fixed time period before getting overwritten by recent data. That may explain this. Just a hypothesis.
Спасибо! Очень познавательно! Хотелось бы когда-нибудь узнать правду, которой так не хватает в нашем мире!
i saw a good video that the plane time warp and it's on video. this happened on the china sea
if you are convinced of this I am not going to tell you the opposite...But we have "to date 0" pieces of debris in the Chinese Sea and not many in the Indian Ocean...it will then be worth explaining to me your theory of the video...Pat🙃
very interesting search #mh370x ashton forbes
@@patgros9273 it makes just about as much sense as anything else ive heard. btw all those plane parts recovered in reunion island were planted
@@michaelmagic988hello..the flaperon of the meeting comes from the MH 370, we have proof of it. All the serial numbers inside it correspond to the 9M-MRO.🙂Capt Pat
@@michaelmagic988you sir are a conspiracy theorist and should leave the adults to do the science.
There got to be a way to ensure safety even if the pilots decide to do something awful like this!
Backup batteries at the back of aircraft ( i.e to power Sat. Comm/ Phones, etc.) Manual/secretive mechanical access to the cockpit. Installing some of the controls such as air pressure release and some of the breakers Outside of cockpit as well...or atleast program aircraft so those necessary functions such as radar etc, cannot be turned off unless certain conditions are met.
I'd never belive that the pilot did this bcs it's so evil
I always thought that the batteries in cargo caught fire knocking all elect. Off
Cargo A is the worst damn place to store flammable or explosive materials bcs it's right under the cockpit so all electrical/eleceonics are located there ..
Horrible UPS #6 accident happened as result of those lithium ion batts.in cargo.
Today at airports, they ask if you carry any l.i. batteries in your luggage!
Great Presentation. Thank you for sharing!
B 777 has a fire suppression in cargo compartment: shortly said,: 5 bottles discharged slowly and in sequence and air confined by stopping ventilation. It's certified for 3 hours.
Comparaison with UPS accident is not pertinent as pure cargo planes have NO fire suppression system on flight deck.
@@bricedesmaures2005
Thanks , also I've forgotten what kind of aircraft UPS was. Maybe diff. configurations...
hello, you say a lot of things and I will try to answer you..1) even if we put emergency batteries at the back the pilot must always be able to disconnect it in the event of a fire. Would you like to fly in a plane where there is has a battery fire that cannot be isolated? 2) nothing can be kept secret for access to the cockpit => 2 days later you have everything on youtube. 3) Preferential for circuit breakers outside.. everyone would know very quickly and any terrorist would go and pull them... Millions of batteries are transported every day under strict conditions. the best part of your luggage, we do not know its condition or its storage, and what it could do in the event of a short circuit in flight we will not have access to it. You understand that aviation is very complicated and dangerous if we do not respect the procedures. But whatever the case, the pilot must always be able to cut off the systems on board by car with necessary insulation or fire. Have a good day.
capt PAT😁
With the advancement in AI field today, m wondering if using AI, we can solve the greatest mystery of our time
If the flight ttajectory is so accurately constructed , then the pilot with his extreme knowledge knew it would be constructed- then why the need for this hard manuevre? If controlled ditching was the idea,(he could do in South China Sea) and he knew it could be tracked down elsewhere too - then the idea of deliberately downing in South Indian oceans using up all fuel means only one thing- the carft/its people/cargo had secret which should never come out? N unfortunately the pilot /person in harge of the craft succeedd 😢
The pilot did not know about 2 things:
1) he had left some data on his flight simulator ("some", not much)
2) he was unaware of some passive/ background communication from the planes systems powered by the engines.
The pilot didn't know about the satellite handshakes. That's fairly obvious. If he did, he wouldn't have flown the plane in the way he did.
One has to remember that as soon as you introduce an assumption, any mathematical analysis will lose half its value.
What you say is not false but we cannot prove everything by mathematics here... We have indisputable "facts" and we must connect them to make a flight probably carried out by a person at the controls , and to make it a “plausible” story.Capt Pat😅
No. Its called logic.
Here's some assumptions:
(1) "they" used the RAT
(2) using the RAT adds 0.2% to consumption.
If the mathematical analysis was it would fly 1000 nm then the assumption changes that by 20nm.
"Half its value", my ass.
To solve complicated real life problems you need to make assumptions (call them theories, hypotheses whatever you like), around human factors, or error factors. The one thing I can tell you about the guy at the end - who seemed to be a 100% mathematical guy - is the plane will not be where he said it was. Why? Because math can only provide a base point and the reality will vary with the human factors.
This analysis is the best I have yet seen, as the guy said - it may not be correct but every other hypothesis has holes in it and therefore cannot be correct.
@@alan_davis When the assumption is politically chosen, you lose 99% of the value. That applies to logic based on assumptions, when you change results by changing the assumptions
Agrees very much with the Independent Pilots Group of 2016 that the ditching position was just south of the actual search area which was based on the Inmarsat 7th arc. Former prime minister Tony Abbot publicly revealed in October 2019 that the Malaysian PM had told him shortly after MH370 disappearance that it was murder suicide by the captain and that he expected the sear ch to be based on a pilot controlled glide. Except it wasn’t. The search was based on an invented theory of a ghost flight to conceal the role of the Muslim captain in the mass murder.
His religion has **** all to do with this.
Ashton Forbes has the video luckily so now we know we need UAP disclosure
Video is fake..debunked by video pros and aviation pros...
Forbes is a clown.
I did not realize that Mauritius was so far South and more or less heading toward British India Ocean Territory and the American base there on Diego Garcia island. Maybe the two men were supposed to take the package to Diego Garcia-- can't find out now. Well somehow it got on MH370. have put more information on Some youtubes.
Conspiracy nut job.
The Ho Chi Minh ATC had confirmed 4 times that last RADAR log was BITOD so why are you saying IGARI?
Also, the only confirmation of Telecommunications signal from the Co-pilot mobile phone was CNN American Media saying they had police supposedly leaked information, however both the police and tower had NEVER confirmed that was true, so why on Earth would this information be considered credible?
Also, the INMARSAT pings have never been used that way for locating aircraft and is unreliable and can definitely be another aircraft such as a scrambled military jet from Diego Garcia sent out to defend airspace. The WSPR data indicated the aircraft was circling for some time before going off of radar so this would also be an indication of a jet flying a defensive drill.
The ONLY credible data was BITOD for the last known location, and if you check the last two calls from pilot you can notice a significant increase of STATIC that is likely a fault from the plane before the transponders were turned off, and add to that JAL750 and MH088 both reported garbled transmission and static from MH370 and that before the takeoff Kuala Lumpur ATC had told the cockpit the audio transmission was indistinguishable and garbled from static showing that before the plane that had previously crashed in China had took off, it already had a technical fault, and then the pilot supposedly had radioed ATC with an indistinguishable message with the only word they could work out being TANGO, and that would be hijacking and yet that original report by Malaysian Media has been left out of hypothetical discussions these days.
Last radar contact was 3.2 NM after IGARI. See page 5 of "MH 370 safety investigation report"
Hello sir.Everything you say is wrong.I feel sorry for you. 1) Contact was lost 3.2Nm from Igari as Brice says in his response "on the way to Bitod" which is not the same thing...2) We have the exact location of the phone connection co-pilot's mobile and the time too...(5:52:27 p.m.) This is indicated in the Malaysian police report and declared by the company Celcom. This has nothing to do with CNN...besides we don't never listen to CNN if you want right informations.We use only official or confirmed data...3)Inmarsat pings are maintenance data which are not intended to locate an aircraft since AF 447 is kept "just in case".Nevertheless the BTOs are accurate because they are only distances, and the BFOs depend on several parameters that we have studied to extract "plausible" but not "certified" trajectory information. We carry out this type of calculation to help underwater research companies find the plane .If no one does it we will never find it. I don't really understand what you are accusing us of. These pings are very reliable, half of the boats and planes on the planet use them. So go tell that to the companies that the data is false! 4) I do not subscribe to the WSPR which is data that is surely more imprecise than the Inmarsat data. It is your choice to believe it. 5) an airliner going in circles for a defensive act? you are delirious sir. I don't really see what he could defend himself against in front of a military plane...6) There was no increase in static electricity in clear skies that night in ISA+11 at FL350 (if that's what you're talking about). No convective phenomena. In addition, only one transponder works at a time and it was turned off manually; there is no valid reason to do so. done in flight.7) the garbled message was never identified as coming from MH370.8) I flew for 44 years and there is no TANGO procedure and no professional has ever heard of it (and However, I have worked on aerial terrorism for a long time). If it exists, it could be that it is an internal procedure at Malaysia Airlines but it does not appear in any document or report. Sir, be careful when you say things that you do not master, and do not blindly trust what is often told by journalists researching Buzz. Have a nice day Capt Pat😉
@@patgros9273Thank you for all these replies Cap Pat. It makes everything easier for a layperson like me to understand. Have a good day Sir. God bless you
@@bricedesmaures2005 that’s my point. The safety report says that, yet the audio and transcripts from the Kuala Lumpur ATC and the Ho Chi Minh ATC say it was BITOD
@@queendomofethelpodcast4662 You are partially right.
No audio transcript says aircraft passed BITOD. Only telephonic dicussion between HCM ATC and KL ATC does. But it's a mistake from HCM ATC. mistake corrected in the "mh 370 safety investigation report " on pdf page 334, item 4 and 3.