What would be a good source for "annual rate of bank loans". I'm not sure the google search is showing what Ken's referring to. Does he mean the APR? Or the volume of loans?
The easy way to read the Treasuries yield curve (for simple people like me): As a financial institution (or a Bank), you need to make profit of the deposits (Bank reserves) at your disposal. Treasuries are the most safest investment (and also very liquid). If you buy Treasuries you need to have in mind, that at the time of the maturity, you need to buy new once (or something similar that yields some profit). Financial institutions (and Banks) do know in advance when there are problems coming and will avoid having too much treasuries that mature at that time, as they will not be able to find save and good yielding investments for the liquidity (deposits/Bank reserves) at bad times. Hence the interest change for different duration of Treasuries at different times. By the way: When Banks make loans they are creating money (according to empirical prove provided by Prof. Richard Werner) and not using Bank reserves or deposits for that 🧐
All while ignoring the fact that high interest rates kill the economy REGARDLESS if the spread is still positive. "banks will be eager to lend" So what?? If the rate is 8%, its a destroyer for loans. Asset prices will have to fall significantly to compensate.
Thanks for all your videos! I enjoy watching and I have learned a lot! I also enjoy the presentation and the fact that they aren't long and get to the point!
Hi, Ken Fisher! I Would love to hear your thoughts on this. Historically the recessions have started 1-2 years after the inverting of the 90-day and 10-year interest rates. By the time the recession has started, the spread has been around 0.5-1%, and just a little after the start of the recession it has already been in the 2% range. It is now exactly two years since the 90-day and 10-year curves inverted. That surprise stimulus from COVID might have mixed things up for a while, but now that is over. What do you think of this?
You explained this concept very well on Neil Cavutos show a month ago and it left me wanting more. Thank you for this in depth explanation.
What would be a good source for "annual rate of bank
loans". I'm not sure the google search is showing what Ken's referring to. Does he mean the APR? Or the volume of loans?
The easy way to read the Treasuries yield curve (for simple people like me):
As a financial institution (or a Bank), you need to make profit of the deposits (Bank reserves) at your disposal.
Treasuries are the most safest investment (and also very liquid).
If you buy Treasuries you need to have in mind, that at the time of the maturity, you need to buy new once (or something similar that yields some profit).
Financial institutions (and Banks) do know in advance when there are problems coming and will avoid having too much treasuries that mature at that time, as they will not be able to find save and good yielding investments for the liquidity (deposits/Bank reserves) at bad times.
Hence the interest change for different duration of Treasuries at different times.
By the way: When Banks make loans they are creating money (according to empirical prove provided by Prof. Richard Werner) and not using Bank reserves or deposits for that 🧐
All while ignoring the fact that high interest rates kill the economy REGARDLESS if the spread is still positive.
"banks will be eager to lend" So what??
If the rate is 8%, its a destroyer for loans. Asset prices will have to fall significantly to compensate.
Thanks for all your videos! I enjoy watching and I have learned a lot! I also enjoy the presentation and the fact that they aren't long and get to the point!
That’s a great analysis. Which sector should we overweight now?
Do you still believe that markets are going through normal correction or have you changed your view ? Thanks.
does that apply to the eurodollar future curve inversion too?
Great knowledge to learn from, thank you very much Mr. Fisher
Thank you, Ken Fisher. You seem to be the lone voice of calm and reason in an otherwise chaotic financial environment.
Your explanation is so simple that even people like me can understand. Well said!
Great explanations
I also wonder if the global yield spread is relative as you mentioned in your book
Clear and concise. Thank you.
Thank you Mr Fisher
Thank you, sir. Another debunkery from my guru 😊
Mr. Fisher did a good job explaining what happens after the inversion, but did not explain what causes the inversion.
Thank you!
Thanks a lot for your brilliant insight..
appreciated to show with some visual diagram to visual for normal person like me
Thanks a lot for the great message as always.
as always great! greetings from austria, europe!
Please live a long and healthy life! thank you!
Hi, Ken Fisher! I Would love to hear your thoughts on this.
Historically the recessions have started 1-2 years after the inverting of the 90-day and 10-year interest rates. By the time the recession has started, the spread has been around 0.5-1%, and just a little after the start of the recession it has already been in the 2% range. It is now exactly two years since the 90-day and 10-year curves inverted. That surprise stimulus from COVID might have mixed things up for a while, but now that is over. What do you think of this?
Tldr
Thanks Ken.
great video thank you
thanks alot
Great Speech !
It's a tricky tightrope for the Fed
Perfect
well it is more true than false, because of borrowing short and lending long. This leads to a decrease in the rate of m2 expansion
I want all the books at the back
Thank you for teaching
Korean fan
He sounds bullish, doesn't he? Always worth 🎧.
are you still long?