Cheers for the comment pal, my dads a keen angler, I was never patient enough 😂😂 I still believe 142 under estimates this horse and trust honeyball sees further improvement up in trip. Salvador Ziggy is the main selection for that race and the day but there is no doubt KK can put it up to all of them and I’d kick myself if he won and I left him un-backed!
Do you still think KK will be aimed at the Kim muir? Just had a look and he has an entry for browns advisory and national hunt chase showing on at the races?
Thanks for the comment pal! Your right but that’s more to do with handicap entries not being in yet. Clearly honeyball likes him enough to put him in a grade 1 at kempton but he’s shrewd and hopefully he sees the mark is their to be utilised!
Great first video and look forward to tuning in every week!! What historically is your best ante post bet do you think we will be seeing the selection before Cheltenham if so what are the hopes for the run ?
You never forget your first…… comment 😂 had a nice 125/1 4 fold with envoi allen, honeysuckle, champ culminating with samcro in the marsh! Kilbeg king isn’t entered up anywhere and as mentioned hoping honeyball sees the gift of a mark given and heads straight to the Kim muir!
Thanks pal, 3 main selections and a cheeky big odds shout Cepage in the veterans still looks well weighted (bank on aye right to come strong and faulter into second). Janidil seems the wrong price in the SC chase. Nemean lion gets a 9lbs swing from sonigino in the lanzarote from the great wood with the form of the race looking rock solid. Commodore miller in the 12.40 at 150/1 is just the wrong price. What about you?
Don't see many people tipping up a handicap race for Cheltenham in January! Some interesting points made. Keep it up! Got a few questions about race courses.. what's your favourite? What's your least favourite? And which course is next on your list that you really want to visit?
Called myself a mad man, but as I said the market will cut up with lots too high in the handicap, I feel 25/1 won’t be around come feb. Cheltenham will always be my favourite but Ascot is marginally better 😅 least favourite would be brighton (you miss half the action i any race over a mile) and would love to do aintree for the grand National. What about yourself?
Went to Leopardstown for DRF last February and that was my favourite. Nice ground and can take you beer anywhere. Even have bars where you can order drinks on a ap and collect when they're ready which made it all better. Wouldn't say I have a worst but maybe ascot as only time I went was flat racing and not a fan of the flats. Then either aintree for grand national or Melbourne for the Melbourne cup
Great insight to this bet Dan however 2 points, KK looks to be a flat track merchant only for win purposes imo as historically the only undulating course hes run on in Uk looks to be Fontwell & theres as much downhill as up there(my local track) so plenty of times to get a blow in.... Also no Cheltenham form or experience either by the looks of it!!!.... not easy to just turn up & win first time at the gaff eh!!! Punchestown would be the hardest track its won on i would say for undulations however the hedges are soft there compared to our tracks ide say... You shovel on the coal Sir however i shant.... As always good luck to us all 😁👍🏇
I agree to a point with the flat track but as you said punchestown is undulating with a small incline for the last 4/5 furlongs, and it was here he did his best work in the hurdle race. His form at Newbury was ok for left handed purposes but another flat track. Completely agree with the lack of Cheltenham form which I can’t deny is a concern, but you can’t tick every box with a 25/1 shot. I remember thinking global citizen was a flat track bully until he won the grand annual so horses can come good at the festival. Thanks for the response and class opinion, your clearly well versed Christine! Any ante post selections so far?
@@Tipsterinasuitnot one for putting over tips tbh Dan however happy to explain what i do, I call them block bets(my bloke calls them multiple permeables) Basically it's selections up to & only as many places the bookie pays in a race over a number of races up to maybe 8 or 9 races on occasions however mainly 6/7 is the normal. Every bet is for small stakes of 4folds & above... we stick to rateable races only(no h'caps) until nrnb comes out then everything becomes fair game.... I personally have only staked around £870 my other half however has put thousands on already. Between us we have had some really nice returns best of them being 52K for around a £44 stake moreover it was a high street bookie so payout was pretty quick once they had vetted it through their security/system😊😊 we have found other nice touches online you get heavily faffed about and payment(s) can be very drawn out especially since the affordability checks!!!! Funny how the checks nearly always come after a good win isn't it!!!... truth to speak is they don't give 2 hoots about affordability it's the laziness of government/gambling commission who have given them the excuse to check accounts eh, all they look for if you have won a lump is transactions to suggest betting by proxy is in play so they don't have to pay you(the welching b######s)😢😢 The system works very well on all the major meetings & festivals especially where extra places are in play. Once you get 4 double figured priced winners they've basically had it😂😂😂 As always good luck to us all 😁👍🏇
@@christineparker7185 so I’ve read it through 2 times and got my head around it (just about) Appreciate the explanation. I’ll get to that size of a book myself come the festival (normally around the 2k mark) but try to keep my anti post selections as one or 2 darts, although I’ll be looking into this system for sure. That’s an amazing payout for that win, including the other block bets you’ve done I assume your still very much in the green for that meeting and some after! I haven’t fallen foul of the checks yet but from what I’m reading they seem really shady, don’t see the upside of them and plenty of down side. Appreciate the insight and comment, look forward to your thoughts on some I have upcoming, look after yourself christine!
A few are coming into range but these days I wait until after the DRF. Backed Embassy Gardens at 33/1 for the NH chase but it won’t win if stablemate Corbetts Cross runs ☹️
@@hywelmurrayit’s a great pointer for the festival typically, although the price tends to go. You won’t want to watch my third video then pal😅 great price at 33/1 though so we’ll played. Luckily for you corbetts cross is with E.Mullins rather than Willie so you should be ok and the bonus of having Patrick on your pick rather than corbetts cross. Apprecaite the comment pal, give the third video a watch and tell me what you think of my analysis of embassy gardens!
Just had a look. He has an early entry on the 27th of January at Doncaster in a Premier Handicap. OR Chase mark of 142 at the minute. If he takes up the entry and goes close, he'll be out of the Kim Muir. I think that Pertemps winner Good Time Jonny might be aimed at the Kim Muir as a potential plot. Worth taking a look IMO. However, I do like a potential Ultima angle with this one, although no course form is concerning, you have to go back over 10 years to find a winner of the ultima that hasnt had a run over the Cheltenham fences before the festival.
When I made the video he had no entry, appreciate that update great info Jamie. Premier handicap means more money so chance honeyball had it as the target, hoping it’s a prep for the festival and he finishes top 4 meaning he doesn’t get a 4lbs rise. Saw GTJ ran over 2 miles which screams plot job, think your onto something there mate. Ultima angle is to cover in case he ran and went up, I put him as a potential 155 horse minimum after that kempton run, so even at 147ish there is some juice, British trained being another massive tick. Course form is a huge benefit (I had beware the bear a few years back purely because of this) but can’t have it all with a 25/1 shot! Great comment, appreciated
@Tipsterinasuit I've decided to play Shakem Up'Arry and Guetapan Collonges both at 33/1 in the Ultima. Worth looking at the form of both. I like the Newbury Gold Cup and Warwick 3m5f angles into the race. Potential doubts as both could have other targets, 2m4f and the Midlands national, but still worth the risk, IMO. I'm not sure how many how many you back in each race, but they'd be on my radar. I'd also just watch the kilbeg King race back again, I'm half wondering if he was closing in on a beaten horse in Hermes Allen.
@jamieSensible it’s a game of opinions but for me shakem up’arry is at an all time high mark getting 4lbs for the win New Year’s Day. For me wouldn’t leave a lot left for a fairly exposed horse. Guetapan Collonges looked alright at Warwick, what makes you think the form is strong? He got dropped 1lbs and does look up to winning one, I wander if he is more a regional national horse. Seemed a little outpaced but stayed on, perhaps not the out and out galloper for the ultima? Wait and see for good time jonnys Irish tax to his mark before making a decision perhaps? I try and limit to 2 darts in a race but have been known to sling a 3rd in, but in that case would have no e/w angle. I think you may be right with Hermes allen tiring, but the gallop they went and chasing that French freak would do that to many I feel! Credit to STD for the ride, but again the time angle would suggest irregardless kilbeg king has ran well above 142. Amazing comment, appreciate it
@Tipsterinasuit Well, I think in both instances, they need the ideal trip. Shakem Up'Arry is by Flemensfirth, and his better progeny like 3 miles. Newbury Gold Cup, I think he was found out by better horses, but he was travelling very nicely until the last 2 furlongs when tiring. I think back round Cheltenham he will thrive over 3m1f, and he will be carrying a lowish weight on the day. I would say he still has room in his mark over 3m. Guetapan Collonges is actually unbeaten over 3m1f. They keep running him in the marathon trip, but I don't think he sees them out. Corach Rambler only finished 5th in the same race before going on to win the Ultima the first time. make of that what you will. I've already backed good time Jonny. I think people are wise to the plot, it'll go off about 5/1 on the day. Worth taking the current price IMO. I will keep Kilbeg King in mind and see how he gets on if he takes his entry at Doncaster. but nothing in his Chase form seems obvious. He's either being plotted very nicely, or he's no good at all, very black and white situation
@JamieSensible, I think the Newbury race is a good one and Mahler mission could be a weapon and Datsalroghtgino a grade 2 horse! Also the ultima last year is the best form of any handicap and he wasn’t disgraced in that either so I see the angle! That is an interesting stat regarding Guetapan, did you mean under 3’1? Does question if he is a regional national type, his sister seemed better at wetherby for the trip so can’t make head or tails. What price you on him at?? I’m starting to feel he will plunder a handicap and take a chance at a novice race, would make sense why he was put in the grade 1 over Christmas but a man can hope honeyball keeps him to a handicap! Not sure he can be no good at all after his Xmas run but that may be his peak too!
What are your thoughts for Kilbeg King now hes running in the National Hunt Chase on Day 1?
Cheers for the comment pal, my dads a keen angler, I was never patient enough 😂😂 I still believe 142 under estimates this horse and trust honeyball sees further improvement up in trip. Salvador Ziggy is the main selection for that race and the day but there is no doubt KK can put it up to all of them and I’d kick myself if he won and I left him un-backed!
Do you still think KK will be aimed at the Kim muir? Just had a look and he has an entry for browns advisory and national hunt chase showing on at the races?
Thanks for the comment pal! Your right but that’s more to do with handicap entries not being in yet. Clearly honeyball likes him enough to put him in a grade 1 at kempton but he’s shrewd and hopefully he sees the mark is their to be utilised!
Hi T in a S, well dug out! will stick with you through Chelt. Joe,
Appreciate that Joe! You got an early fancies for the festival yet?
Great first video and look forward to tuning in every week!! What historically is your best ante post bet do you think we will be seeing the selection before Cheltenham if so what are the hopes for the run ?
You never forget your first…… comment 😂 had a nice 125/1 4 fold with envoi allen, honeysuckle, champ culminating with samcro in the marsh!
Kilbeg king isn’t entered up anywhere and as mentioned hoping honeyball sees the gift of a mark given and heads straight to the Kim muir!
Great analysis and will certainly be following your selections in the future!
Do you also have any selections for weekend racing?
Thanks pal, 3 main selections and a cheeky big odds shout
Cepage in the veterans still looks well weighted (bank on aye right to come strong and faulter into second).
Janidil seems the wrong price in the SC chase.
Nemean lion gets a 9lbs swing from sonigino in the lanzarote from the great wood with the form of the race looking rock solid.
Commodore miller in the 12.40 at 150/1 is just the wrong price.
What about you?
Don't see many people tipping up a handicap race for Cheltenham in January! Some interesting points made. Keep it up! Got a few questions about race courses.. what's your favourite? What's your least favourite? And which course is next on your list that you really want to visit?
Called myself a mad man, but as I said the market will cut up with lots too high in the handicap, I feel 25/1 won’t be around come feb.
Cheltenham will always be my favourite but Ascot is marginally better 😅 least favourite would be brighton (you miss half the action i any race over a mile) and would love to do aintree for the grand National. What about yourself?
Went to Leopardstown for DRF last February and that was my favourite. Nice ground and can take you beer anywhere. Even have bars where you can order drinks on a ap and collect when they're ready which made it all better. Wouldn't say I have a worst but maybe ascot as only time I went was flat racing and not a fan of the flats. Then either aintree for grand national or Melbourne for the Melbourne cup
Not taking beers out does suck at Cheltenham, but too much goes flying!
Doesn’t like the flats and wants to go to the Melbourne cup 🧐😂
Appreciate the input Wayne! Just in case I didn’t get it you put it ALL IN CAPS, THANKS BRUH
So is it I’ve bet too small, or that I’ve lied my man?
Great insight to this bet Dan however 2 points, KK looks to be a flat track merchant only for win purposes imo as historically the only undulating course hes run on in Uk looks to be Fontwell & theres as much downhill as up there(my local track) so plenty of times to get a blow in....
Also no Cheltenham form or experience either by the looks of it!!!.... not easy to just turn up & win first time at the gaff eh!!!
Punchestown would be the hardest track its won on i would say for undulations however the hedges are soft there compared to our tracks ide say...
You shovel on the coal Sir however i shant....
As always good luck to us all 😁👍🏇
I agree to a point with the flat track but as you said punchestown is undulating with a small incline for the last 4/5 furlongs, and it was here he did his best work in the hurdle race.
His form at Newbury was ok for left handed purposes but another flat track.
Completely agree with the lack of Cheltenham form which I can’t deny is a concern, but you can’t tick every box with a 25/1 shot.
I remember thinking global citizen was a flat track bully until he won the grand annual so horses can come good at the festival.
Thanks for the response and class opinion, your clearly well versed Christine!
Any ante post selections so far?
@@Tipsterinasuitnot one for putting over tips tbh Dan however happy to explain what i do, I call them block bets(my bloke calls them multiple permeables)
Basically it's selections up to & only as many places the bookie pays in a race over a number of races up to maybe 8 or 9 races on occasions however mainly 6/7 is the normal. Every bet is for small stakes of 4folds & above... we stick to rateable races only(no h'caps) until nrnb comes out then everything becomes fair game....
I personally have only staked around £870 my other half however has put thousands on already. Between us we have had some really nice returns best of them being 52K for around a £44 stake moreover it was a high street bookie so payout was pretty quick once they had vetted it through their security/system😊😊 we have found other nice touches online you get heavily faffed about and payment(s) can be very drawn out especially since the affordability checks!!!! Funny how the checks nearly always come after a good win isn't it!!!... truth to speak is they don't give 2 hoots about affordability it's the laziness of government/gambling commission who have given them the excuse to check accounts eh, all they look for if you have won a lump is transactions to suggest betting by proxy is in play so they don't have to pay you(the welching b######s)😢😢
The system works very well on all the major meetings & festivals especially where extra places are in play. Once you get 4 double figured priced winners they've basically had it😂😂😂
As always good luck to us all 😁👍🏇
@@christineparker7185 so I’ve read it through 2 times and got my head around it (just about) Appreciate the explanation. I’ll get to that size of a book myself come the festival (normally around the 2k mark) but try to keep my anti post selections as one or 2 darts, although I’ll be looking into this system for sure. That’s an amazing payout for that win, including the other block bets you’ve done I assume your still very much in the green for that meeting and some after!
I haven’t fallen foul of the checks yet but from what I’m reading they seem really shady, don’t see the upside of them and plenty of down side.
Appreciate the insight and comment, look forward to your thoughts on some I have upcoming, look after yourself christine!
Kilbeg was a big eye catcher at Kempton, good luck 🤞
Thank you, I thought so too!
Any fancies for the festival so far?
A few are coming into range but these days I wait until after the DRF. Backed Embassy Gardens at 33/1 for the NH chase but it won’t win if stablemate Corbetts Cross runs ☹️
@@hywelmurrayit’s a great pointer for the festival typically, although the price tends to go.
You won’t want to watch my third video then pal😅 great price at 33/1 though so we’ll played. Luckily for you corbetts cross is with E.Mullins rather than Willie so you should be ok and the bonus of having Patrick on your pick rather than corbetts cross.
Apprecaite the comment pal, give the third video a watch and tell me what you think of my analysis of embassy gardens!
@@hywelmurray corbetts cross isn’t a stablemate of embassy gardens 😂
Just had a look. He has an early entry on the 27th of January at Doncaster in a Premier Handicap.
OR Chase mark of 142 at the minute. If he takes up the entry and goes close, he'll be out of the Kim Muir.
I think that Pertemps winner Good Time Jonny might be aimed at the Kim Muir as a potential plot. Worth taking a look IMO.
However, I do like a potential Ultima angle with this one, although no course form is concerning, you have to go back over 10 years to find a winner of the ultima that hasnt had a run over the Cheltenham fences before the festival.
When I made the video he had no entry, appreciate that update great info Jamie. Premier handicap means more money so chance honeyball had it as the target, hoping it’s a prep for the festival and he finishes top 4 meaning he doesn’t get a 4lbs rise.
Saw GTJ ran over 2 miles which screams plot job, think your onto something there mate.
Ultima angle is to cover in case he ran and went up, I put him as a potential 155 horse minimum after that kempton run, so even at 147ish there is some juice, British trained being another massive tick. Course form is a huge benefit (I had beware the bear a few years back purely because of this) but can’t have it all with a 25/1 shot!
Great comment, appreciated
@Tipsterinasuit I've decided to play Shakem Up'Arry and Guetapan Collonges both at 33/1 in the Ultima.
Worth looking at the form of both.
I like the Newbury Gold Cup and Warwick 3m5f angles into the race.
Potential doubts as both could have other targets, 2m4f and the Midlands national, but still worth the risk, IMO.
I'm not sure how many how many you back in each race, but they'd be on my radar.
I'd also just watch the kilbeg King race back again, I'm half wondering if he was closing in on a beaten horse in Hermes Allen.
@jamieSensible it’s a game of opinions but for me shakem up’arry is at an all time high mark getting 4lbs for the win New Year’s Day. For me wouldn’t leave a lot left for a fairly exposed horse.
Guetapan Collonges looked alright at Warwick, what makes you think the form is strong? He got dropped 1lbs and does look up to winning one, I wander if he is more a regional national horse. Seemed a little outpaced but stayed on, perhaps not the out and out galloper for the ultima?
Wait and see for good time jonnys Irish tax to his mark before making a decision perhaps?
I try and limit to 2 darts in a race but have been known to sling a 3rd in, but in that case would have no e/w angle.
I think you may be right with Hermes allen tiring, but the gallop they went and chasing that French freak would do that to many I feel! Credit to STD for the ride, but again the time angle would suggest irregardless kilbeg king has ran well above 142.
Amazing comment, appreciate it
@Tipsterinasuit Well, I think in both instances, they need the ideal trip.
Shakem Up'Arry is by Flemensfirth, and his better progeny like 3 miles. Newbury Gold Cup, I think he was found out by better horses, but he was travelling very nicely until the last 2 furlongs when tiring. I think back round Cheltenham he will thrive over 3m1f, and he will be carrying a lowish weight on the day. I would say he still has room in his mark over 3m.
Guetapan Collonges is actually unbeaten over 3m1f. They keep running him in the marathon trip, but I don't think he sees them out. Corach Rambler only finished 5th in the same race before going on to win the Ultima the first time. make of that what you will.
I've already backed good time Jonny. I think people are wise to the plot, it'll go off about 5/1 on the day. Worth taking the current price IMO.
I will keep Kilbeg King in mind and see how he gets on if he takes his entry at Doncaster. but nothing in his Chase form seems obvious. He's either being plotted very nicely, or he's no good at all, very black and white situation
@JamieSensible, I think the Newbury race is a good one and Mahler mission could be a weapon and Datsalroghtgino a grade 2 horse! Also the ultima last year is the best form of any handicap and he wasn’t disgraced in that either so I see the angle!
That is an interesting stat regarding Guetapan, did you mean under 3’1? Does question if he is a regional national type, his sister seemed better at wetherby for the trip so can’t make head or tails.
What price you on him at??
I’m starting to feel he will plunder a handicap and take a chance at a novice race, would make sense why he was put in the grade 1 over Christmas but a man can hope honeyball keeps him to a handicap! Not sure he can be no good at all after his Xmas run but that may be his peak too!