Stoked to see Mike on here! For anyone new to Mike, he glosses over the corporate re-fi issue around the 41:00 mark, one which is probably more important than some listeners might think - and probably deserved more time. He's had some recent interviews where he's gone into deeper detail on this issue that you might find interesting.
24:45 all this talk about being flows driven makes me think of Michael Howell and his take on liquidity. I would love to hear these two go back and forth on that.
I see 2-3yrs recession. Fed will raise interests soon if inflation doesn't peak. Inflation is producing a slew of problems throughout the world, including food shortages, diesel and heating fuel shortages, and housing prices and financial market crash. This global collapse might end up being a part of us for a very long time. With inflation currently at about 9%, my primary concern is how to maximize my savings/retirement fund which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.
There are lot of ways to make a killing right now, but such high-volume near impeccable trades can only be carried out by real-time experts with ISDA Agreement. An agreement that lets investors sit at the “big boy table” and make high level trades not available to amateurs. Trying to be a high stakes trader without an ISDA is like trying to win the Indy 500 riding a llama.
I'm sure the idea of an invstment-Adviser might sound controversial to a few, but a new study by Motley-fool found out that demand for Financial-Advisers sky-rocketed by over 42% since the pandemic and based on firsthand encounter I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch. I've accrued north of 780k within 16-months from an initially stagnant Portfolio.
Inflation is around 6.5% here in the UK, but as we know it's definitely way more than the Government would like to admit. My plan is to earn more passive income and ride this out, can your Investment-adviser assist?
My Financial adviser is ‘’Colleen Janie Towe’’ and she’s highly qualified and experienced in the financial market. She has extensive knowledge of portfolio diversity and is considered an expert in the field. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Insightful... I curiously looked up her name on the internet and I found her site and i must say she seems proficient, wrote her an email outlining my objectives. Thanks for sharing.
He's s very rational, clear-thinking / cool-headed person. Been following him for some years now. Consistently good. If I was a multimillionaire, I'd consider his services 😎
I see 4 possible negative catalysts coming by sept 30. 1. the chatter coming out of the Brics meetings 22-24th 2. Then Powell speaking in Jackson the 26th 3. August CPI/PPI 4. Possible rate hike following inflation info. And all going into the traditionally worse time of the yr for markets.
Ironically, the EXTENT of the yield curve inversion suggests that a resolution is not too far away. Consequently, i believe that Long Term US Government bonds are probably going to THE BEST performing assets over the next 2 years!
I wouldn't predict something that history has never seen. Like QE. We've never had a recession with QE, this is the first time if we have one that is. 15 years starting to look like Yellen is right. And the ones predicting it are starting to get annoying cause each time it's the same thing. "It's coming" "not too much longer now" "Maybe the start of 2024"
Fed is exercising qt with targeted lending facility. But that lending facility has a maturity date. One that is near term not 10-30 years like when fed does qe buying bonds effectively lending. It is also lending at punitive rates. Can't oversimplify all that and claim we currently have qe
Frankly, I don't care if a recession is "coming" or not..... what I want to know is what will the S&P 500 do...? And that... in turn... will depend on BOTH the economy & the Fed. So again, "recession" or "no recession".... that's of minimal interest in and of itself.
It’s interesting that know one understands that it’s environmental destruction and resource destruction that leads to more and more energy and innovation needed to get the same results ie the same real outcome. Oil is a simple example. Used to find it on the surface. Then drill for it. Then tar sands processing enormous environmental damage. Then drilling deep under the ocean. Then fracking which causes environmental damage. The amount of resources and costs to get it so much higher. From 1 dollar a barrel to 50 dollars a barrer Then we have the extinction of all large mammals etc Tap water full of 50 thousand chemicals etc So if want safe drinking water need distillation that is very energy intensive This planet cannot sustain 8 billion people. Glad I am old. In 20 years people will know what trouble they really are in when India runs out of fresh water
The difference is we saw unprecedented levels of QE and fiscal spending and that liquidity created high inflation. We cannot repeat that formula or hyperinflation will result. Don’t get me wrong, somewhat lower rates and QE resumption are a mathematical certainty but not at the same level and we need deflation in assets first
@@TheAlexa6 It's one thing to say we can't risk inflation with the money printer now. It's another thing to be J Powell, see markets crashing, and then tell everyone "sorry, you need to take the pain, good luck" knowing it will cause panic. It could happen but odds are they will do what they always do when markets get scary.
The key to interviewing is saying little, and encouraging the guest speak while responding to what they previously said. In that he does an amazing job.
His passive stuff goes back to at least 2017 that he has been preaching --- I think the guy is spot on, unfortunately he has been not only very early (which is the same thing as being wrong) he never really offers anything concrete about what is the trade. In other words, okay, let's say your thesis is correct, what's the trade when the reckoning occurs? His Simplify stuff sounds like a lot of hot air mumbo jumbo to me. Seems like he has admitted if you can't beat em join em.
Unfortunately -- he's been wrong for a lot longer than that ---- go back and look at some of his passive investment stuff years ago, like 2017. I think he actually is right about everything, but, like the old saying goes --- being early is the same thing as being wrong.
One is not wrong if one stays liquid into the event. The GFC was obvious: the timing was not-nor is it ever. Those that were right bet in a way that allowed them to remain liquid into the crash.
Is there anything that can stop this recession?
Ask Steve Hanke about this! 😎
Stoked to see Mike on here! For anyone new to Mike, he glosses over the corporate re-fi issue around the 41:00 mark, one which is probably more important than some listeners might think - and probably deserved more time. He's had some recent interviews where he's gone into deeper detail on this issue that you might find interesting.
You're right, it is very much more important. Pension funds -- that's the issue.
Which recent interview would you recommend, covering that topic?
24:45 all this talk about being flows driven makes me think of Michael Howell and his take on liquidity. I would love to hear these two go back and forth on that.
Tremendous respect for Michael Green. Buy long duration treasuries, gold stocks, cash, lie flat. The world needs better leadership.
He prefers short duration treasuries.
Short duration treasuries
Cash but what if the bank goes belly up?
I see 2-3yrs recession. Fed will raise interests soon if inflation doesn't peak. Inflation is producing a slew of problems throughout the world, including food shortages, diesel and heating fuel shortages, and housing prices and financial market crash. This global collapse might end up being a part of us for a very long time. With inflation currently at about 9%, my primary concern is how to maximize my savings/retirement fund which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.
There are lot of ways to make a killing right now, but such high-volume near impeccable trades can only be carried out by real-time experts with ISDA Agreement. An agreement that lets investors sit at the “big boy table” and make high level trades not available to amateurs. Trying to be a high stakes trader without an ISDA is like trying to win the Indy 500 riding a llama.
I'm sure the idea of an invstment-Adviser might sound controversial to a few, but a new study by Motley-fool found out that demand for Financial-Advisers sky-rocketed by over 42% since the pandemic and based on firsthand encounter I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch. I've accrued north of 780k within 16-months from an initially stagnant Portfolio.
Inflation is around 6.5% here in the UK, but as we know it's definitely way more than the Government would like to admit. My plan is to earn more passive income and ride this out, can your Investment-adviser assist?
My Financial adviser is ‘’Colleen Janie Towe’’ and she’s highly qualified and experienced in the financial market. She has extensive knowledge of portfolio diversity and is considered an expert in the field. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Insightful... I curiously looked up her name on the internet and I found her site and i must say she seems proficient, wrote her an email outlining my objectives. Thanks for sharing.
Great interview. Michael's comments are very insightful and spot-on.
He's s very rational, clear-thinking / cool-headed person.
Been following him for some years now. Consistently good.
If I was a multimillionaire, I'd consider his services 😎
Great conversation and guest
I see 4 possible negative catalysts coming by sept 30.
1. the chatter coming out of the Brics meetings 22-24th
2. Then Powell speaking in Jackson the 26th
3. August CPI/PPI
4. Possible rate hike following inflation info.
And all going into the traditionally worse time of the yr for markets.
Those are obsidian crystals behind Mike in case anyone was wondering. Obsidian blocks psychic attacks and absorbs negative energy.
Great stuff, thanks again!
Switzerland already has life time mortgages. Can't tell the difference between that and just renting...
The difference is the implicit "call option" that you have while holding the property.
This was an amazing interview!
The parenting analogies couldn't be more accurate.
Great guest learned a lot
This'll be a good one!
I’m hoping for the forced back to office movement just to lower housing prices and require some to move back to the city.
Ironically, the EXTENT of the yield curve inversion suggests that a resolution is not too far away. Consequently, i believe that Long Term US Government bonds are probably going to THE BEST performing assets over the next 2 years!
It depends if you think this time is different and it is the end of a long-term secular trend of decreasing inflation and interest rates.
Every recession is followed by QE.. are you saying it never has?
Yeah. Mom should chill. Thanks Mike
Great
I agree with Mikes final message and everything else! My kids a gamer maybe there's hope for him too.
History can commence now that the best and brightest have declared the impossibility of the obvious.
I wouldn't predict something that history has never seen. Like QE. We've never had a recession with QE, this is the first time if we have one that is. 15 years starting to look like Yellen is right. And the ones predicting it are starting to get annoying cause each time it's the same thing. "It's coming" "not too much longer now" "Maybe the start of 2024"
Fed is exercising qt with targeted lending facility. But that lending facility has a maturity date. One that is near term not 10-30 years like when fed does qe buying bonds effectively lending. It is also lending at punitive rates. Can't oversimplify all that and claim we currently have qe
Just precious. Solutions?
Right? Right? Right? Right?
“Eventually it will start to fall” is a true gem. Why bother investing then?
👍💛
Good guest…& humans do not create.
Frankly, I don't care if a recession is "coming" or not..... what I want to know is what will the S&P 500 do...? And that... in turn... will depend on BOTH the economy & the Fed. So again, "recession" or "no recession".... that's of minimal interest in and of itself.
It’s interesting that know one understands that it’s environmental destruction and resource destruction that leads to more and more energy and innovation needed to get the same results ie the same real outcome. Oil is a simple example. Used to find it on the surface. Then drill for it. Then tar sands processing enormous environmental damage. Then drilling deep under the ocean. Then fracking which causes environmental damage. The amount of resources and costs to get it so much higher. From 1 dollar a barrel to 50 dollars a barrer
Then we have the extinction of all large mammals etc
Tap water full of 50 thousand chemicals etc
So if want safe drinking water need distillation that is very energy intensive
This planet cannot sustain 8 billion people. Glad I am old. In 20 years people will know what trouble they really are in when India runs out of fresh water
This will be my 8th recession to live through, it’s a economic cycle not a option
Each much worse than the one before. Notice the trend?
Pay attention to what Mike says regarding his one take away. This could get ugly...
Good content.... young host kinda MUMBLES. Slow down. Speak CLEARLY.
Thanks for watching, appreciate it. Thanks for the feedback, always get ahead of myself!
Ok a recession is coming. That doesnt mean the stock market is coming down as we learned from 2020.
The difference is we saw unprecedented levels of QE and fiscal spending and that liquidity created high inflation. We cannot repeat that formula or hyperinflation will result. Don’t get me wrong, somewhat lower rates and QE resumption are a mathematical certainty but not at the same level and we need deflation in assets first
@@TheAlexa6 It's one thing to say we can't risk inflation with the money printer now. It's another thing to be J Powell, see markets crashing, and then tell everyone "sorry, you need to take the pain, good luck" knowing it will cause panic. It could happen but odds are they will do what they always do when markets get scary.
Long slog....the off the cliff..summer 2025
No offense and I gave this a chance for a few episodes. However, my 13 YO could do a better job with hosting and the queations asked.
He lets the guests get all their thoughts out
The key to interviewing is saying little, and encouraging the guest speak while responding to what they previously said. In that he does an amazing job.
“No pessimist ever discovered the secret of the stars, or sailed to an uncharted land, or opened a new doorway for the human spirit.”
He got 2023 totally wrong but still no new ideas
His passive stuff goes back to at least 2017 that he has been preaching --- I think the guy is spot on, unfortunately he has been not only very early (which is the same thing as being wrong) he never really offers anything concrete about what is the trade. In other words, okay, let's say your thesis is correct, what's the trade when the reckoning occurs? His Simplify stuff sounds like a lot of hot air mumbo jumbo to me. Seems like he has admitted if you can't beat em join em.
"A Rational Democrat" = IRRATIONAL DemonRat
Its a shame i couldnt give you 100 thumbs up !
Dude's been wrong all year.
Unfortunately -- he's been wrong for a lot longer than that ---- go back and look at some of his passive investment stuff years ago, like 2017. I think he actually is right about everything, but, like the old saying goes --- being early is the same thing as being wrong.
One is not wrong if one stays liquid into the event. The GFC was obvious: the timing was not-nor is it ever. Those that were right bet in a way that allowed them to remain liquid into the crash.