Analogue Evolution, Digital Revolution: Tipping Points in Technology - Dylan Beattie
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- Опубликовано: 3 окт 2024
- This talk was recorded at NDC London in London, England. #ndclondon #ndcconferences #developer #softwaredeveloper
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Technological progress is non-linear. Sometimes, innovation is a smooth curve; hundreds of small, incremental improvements over many years - until something comes along that changes the game; something that fundamentally challenges our assumptions around what technology can achieve. Within the last few decades, technology has profoundly and irreversibly changed the shape of human society; how we work, how we relax, how we communicate and collaborate. And, in almost every case, the key has been digitalisation: the ability to take transform part of our reality into a stream of bits.
With the benefit of hindsight, it’s easy to see the tipping points, to identify the moments when a particular technology or idea achieved critical mass, when something went from being an interesting prototype to a viable product - but for people who were there at the time, it often wasn’t nearly so obvious. In an industry that’s perpetually excited about the “next big thing”, how do developers and technologists decide what to focus on? Should we be thinking about augmented reality? Will machine learning replace developers? Is AI a fun toy, a useful tool - or an existential threat to humanity?
Join Dylan Beattie for an entertaining look at the innovations that really did change the world (and a few that didn’t!), and how understanding our history can help us make sense of the next digital revolution - whatever that turns out to be.
I'm a simple man. I see a new Dylan Beattie talk, I click immediately.
YEP
100%..never disappoints
Yep 100%
100%
Same.. I'm just starting this vid.. I know it'll be good
Ah yes. 1 hour of the unbeaten, unbeatable, Dylan Beattie. (Grabs popcorn)
Great QnA session at the end! I'd love to hear the answer.
Yeah, that audio drop-out is a bummer, huh? 😕
Dylan, on the off chance you see this comment: That intro (the git music thing) was _amazing_ ... well done! Nice talk, too, but yeah, that intro!
That intro was so cool!!!
I think it comes from his git music talk
@@JoeGrimer hmm, not sure which talk you're referring to. But a web search for "re:bass" quickly finds both the intro as an isolated video, and the github repo for it. :)
Any time Dylan Beattie does an NDC talk it's an event
QnA at the end sound is lost 😒
I did not watch it yet, but for sure this talk is excellent!!!!
Just finished watching. Another banger! I have also thought for some time now that we might stop developing against the end user, but instead start developing our products to be consumbed by AI products instead. As long as someones personal AI assistant can understand my product/endpoints then they don’t have to use my app or website.
You still need the integration to be coded, the business rules to be put into place, but the experience does not have to involve screens anymore.
Ooo, I got triggered by the "outsourcing of verifications" thingie. I run into this on a regular basis: I cannot buy vaping stuff on Amazon, or the PPV of the UFC fights on DAZN or partake in many things that require age verification in Germany, because I do not own a German ID card, nor a valid passport. I have an EU identity card, but the age verification systems do not accept these, and somehow my invalid passport is more than 18 years old and proves I am me as much as it did when it was still within its sell-by-date, but not to the age verification systems.
Note: I am paying everywhere with a credit card or a debit card, where someone did the age check... It's soooo fecked up
For the graph on 11:30, I do wonder what it looks like if you add “cameras made” in total to the graph.
As in, no one really buys a “camera” as an item nowadays. But the amount of “cameras” as a component seems to be produced at a mind numbingly crazy number.
Like, an iPhone now has… 3 cameras on the back, 1 on the front? And people usually buy a new phone every 2 years? That’s like 1.5 cameras per year. And this isn’t even including everything else that has a camera here and there.
So if we count all of those as “cameras”, I feel like the global consumption of cameras is likely a very crazy number now.
I don't think people buy a new phone every 2 years anymore. It used to be like that when phones effectively became rubbish after this time span, but today, phones easily last 5 years and longer.
To my great annoyance, MP3 is an example of how a good enough technology can prevent innovation. It kind of sucks, by modern standards. There have been many attempts to replace it with a better codec, both proprietary and open. Some of them worked behind the scenes - you're probably listening to the video using the Opus codec, as that's youtube's preferred. It'll match the quality of MP3 in half the bitrate, easily. Yet when people seek to download music, they seek MP3 - because for most people, MP3 is 'the music format.' You want a song, you search 'youtube mp3 downloader' or (if you don't want to pretend legality) 'download song mp3 free.' Send someone an opus file and they won't know what to do with it.
is this a bot and is that a scam
@@goldnutter412 no - if you right click and go 'stats for nerds' you see : Codecs vp09.00.51.08.01.01.01.01.00 (248) / opus (251) - i'm receiving audio in opus codec for this video (although i'm not entirely sure how to understand that number salad of a video codec)
@@goldnutter412 No, not a bot.
I have a similar annoyance, though for me it regards Microsoft Windows.
MP3 is still the most widely supported format out there. I used to rip CDs to WMA files, but my mp3 player wouldn't recognize them. I downloaded opus files, but the music app on my phone cannot play some of them. MP3 is the easiest, no-hassle solution.
I guess it is very likely that the job “programmer” will become obsolete. Similar to how “computer” as a job became so.
People will be “developers” instead, likely not even “software developer”, just “developer”. Because you really need to have humans that can just “go figure” and find a way to implement the software, hardware, AI-ware, human-ware all within a system.
You can’t just apply the attitude of “How many programmers do you need to change a lightbulb? You can’t because it’s a hardware problem” anymore. Even if you need to develop an AI that can receive the ticket that the lightbulb is broken, then call a handyman to repair it.
I do think the cost of a “human-like thought” is far from zero. Like, “think of a purple penguin” have a cost that’s so small it’s near zero. But as soon as the topic gets more complicated, “human-like thought” becomes exponentially expensive.
Like, “Why is there a purple penguin?”, “How did the purple penguin evolve to be like this?”, “What are the natural predators of the purple penguin?”, “Is snow purple where the penguin came from?”
Like, it might be true that a thought can’t generate any value by itself. But a thought definitely costs a lot more than zero to produce.
Like, think about how difficult it is to just get people to think of a “purple penguin”. To achieve this, you need to spend years building this authority of “Dylan”, until people are convinced that “If Dylan says we should think of a purple penguin, we should do so because he’s probably on to something”. Then you need all the logistics to get your world spread everywhere.
One of my favourite bits is when he talked about how the covid online converence fad failed, and how human converences matter
Micdrop moment: AI can take care of the roses, human, the guns. Thank you!
See Dylan, bookmark
At the end he talked about the old idea of totalization, a single system that controls everything. Good luck with this retry 😁
It is not "thought" by any stretch of the imagination. Yet.
21:04
🤘🏽
You can go online and buy some garbage data created by some numbers