张伦:西方与中国进入温战危险时期

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  • Опубликовано: 10 сен 2024

Комментарии • 131

  • @fengyelin
    @fengyelin Год назад +24

    法国的张伦,美国的程晓浓,香港的陶杰,都是杰出的评论家,小平要多请他们做节目。❤

    • @user-tt9tx9hy9p
      @user-tt9tx9hy9p Год назад

      感谢。俺按照你的指示继续努力。

  • @Wl536
    @Wl536 Год назад +3

    张伦是中文社会最优秀的学者,没有第二。美中对抗,是民主与专制的对抗,是人性与兽性的对抗。

    • @user-tt9tx9hy9p
      @user-tt9tx9hy9p Год назад

      是,张教授格外优秀,能采访这样的教授,是我的荣幸。

  • @SunLanlan
    @SunLanlan Год назад +5

    谢谢主持 谢谢嘉宾 感恩❤️❤️

  • @computerking949
    @computerking949 Год назад +3

    给小平点赞。

  • @kevinye1753
    @kevinye1753 Год назад +7

    这个嘉宾完全不知说云

  • @zxli1004
    @zxli1004 Год назад +4

    小平今天的節目很有水平

    • @user-tt9tx9hy9p
      @user-tt9tx9hy9p Год назад

      谢谢。是教授有水平,我跟着学习。

  • @user-zr3td9lw1d
    @user-zr3td9lw1d Год назад +1

    靠拳頭要做老大是不夠格的黑幫老大是會造成世界生靈塗炭的,何況實力還未達標,老大必須要以德服人,分配資源跟利益給小弟共享,訂立合理的國際秩序,國際法,國際共識,這樣共同繁榮,小弟才會樂於遵守,相反的南海擴張挑起了美國跟澳洲的敏感神經,跟菲律賓搶長征5號,飛彈射日本跟台灣,印度狼牙棒對決,南韓最終也看懂了中國的真面目,未做大已讓鄰國感到威脅

  • @ericliu9895
    @ericliu9895 Год назад +4

    张教授的见解非常客观而深刻。

  • @aachenmann
    @aachenmann Год назад +2

    中國不遵守規則 破壞市場 被这个嘉宾說成 ; 事實上全球化並沒有終結 只是把不遵守規則的中國排除在外 現在中國失業嚴重 因為沒有訂單 企業裁員倒閉 台商和外資企業轉移到越南東南亞國家 產業鏈轉移出去就再也不會回來了

    • @lioicomestai3703
      @lioicomestai3703 Год назад

      I completely agree with Your "... 並沒有終結 只是把不遵守..."
      Globalization is large scale of division of labor that is unstoppable. But current Cold War II eventually would teach the West a lesson that Production Power improvement must associate with social institution establishment.
      Such establishment would enhance social transformation.
      We may also learn that such transformation at private ownership dominated society would take place naturally or relatively smoothly. But not in Leninism ideology ruled authoritarian societies. Let's see what would happen in Vietnam although we knew what has happened in CCP Cina.
      料依 [翻譯] 我完全同意你的 “……並沒有終結 只是把不遵守……”
      全球化是大規模的分工,是不可阻擋的。但當前的第二次冷戰最終會給西方一個教訓,那就是生產力的提高必須與社會制度的建立聯繫起來。
      這樣的建立會促進社會轉型。
      我們也可以了解到,私有製社會的這種轉型是自然發生的,或者是比較順利的。但不是在列寧主義意識形態中統治專制社會。讓我們看看在越南會發生什麼,雖然我們知道中共發生了什麼。

  • @user-yuyinjie
    @user-yuyinjie Год назад +2

    张伦没有真正理解浪漫,只是一般性的滥用浪漫概念。谈的都是经验,没啥意义。这样解读问题,只能加重问题。

  • @user-rr1zc9nk6i
    @user-rr1zc9nk6i Год назад

    小平主持这样的长篇访谈节目,最擅长!👍

  • @user-kb8su1rt1m
    @user-kb8su1rt1m Год назад +2

    谢谢🙏!

  • @jiayangtsai9136
    @jiayangtsai9136 Год назад +1

    持續性的溫戰,好比人體持續性的發炎,拖久了都要出問題。

  • @shizhongwang1815
    @shizhongwang1815 Год назад +1

    以经济为主导的社会,就可能是浪漫的,以政治为主导的就是野性的社会

    • @user-tt9tx9hy9p
      @user-tt9tx9hy9p Год назад

      全球化以经济为主导,不仅浪漫,张教授还说到“野蛮”。 我理解,本质上,以经济为主导内容的全球化是无政府主义的?

    • @anwiycti1585
      @anwiycti1585 Год назад

      @@user-tt9tx9hy9p 可參見David Braeber著書

  • @taizhuliu4080
    @taizhuliu4080 Год назад +2

    抛开价值观谈“平衡”,正是你所批评的那个“浪漫的全球化”

    • @lnsightsonlife
      @lnsightsonlife Год назад

      全球化被中共搞成中国经济全球化、奴隶化、丛林化。。张先生说话吞吞吐吐,不知道是放不开还是有顾忌。

  • @tarragonart5113
    @tarragonart5113 Год назад +3

    泛自由,脱离道义的全球化

  • @user-hm2dl3nj2o
    @user-hm2dl3nj2o Год назад

    全世界大团结内部消化功能提升技巧

  • @sebastian-Lin
    @sebastian-Lin Год назад +3

    张伦与夏明一个德行,就是抓住一切机会给自己贴金

  • @anwiycti1585
    @anwiycti1585 Год назад

    49:59 價值制度之爭在中文圈沒幾個人有勇氣點明,盡管老拜早就明示。張教授👍👍

  • @user-xn6jn4bl3q
    @user-xn6jn4bl3q Год назад +4

    小平先生好!

  • @user-zr3td9lw1d
    @user-zr3td9lw1d Год назад

    普丁多年來操作大國博弈如魚得水,自信心爆棚,有點任性,加上幕僚的吹捧,進攻烏克蘭的驚奇就次此揭幕,輸到做起習近平的小弟來了!

  • @nianshao4322
    @nianshao4322 Год назад

    听这个砖家说了以后,跑到美国的这些人可以长长的舒口气了!

  • @shondraritchie
    @shondraritchie Год назад

    美國入侵別國的時候也沒考慮這個原則吧 最後扶持個自己勢力的政府

  • @wenzhongchen1049
    @wenzhongchen1049 Год назад

    为什么叫主持人同志呢?

    • @xugang5005
      @xugang5005 Год назад

      同志本意是志同道合者。

  • @taizhuliu4080
    @taizhuliu4080 Год назад +3

    善与恶永远不可能平衡

  • @user-lb5hf4ix3d
    @user-lb5hf4ix3d 10 месяцев назад

    百年未有之大变局。

  • @user-zn7qp3lc7z
    @user-zn7qp3lc7z Год назад

    有種動物你養大了就會反咬你,猜猜哪種動物?😂😂😂

  • @soldiersvejk6773
    @soldiersvejk6773 Год назад

    天下大勢 分久必合 合久必分嘛

  • @聂丹
    @聂丹 Год назад

    三战?不会吧,我好怕怕呀

  • @taizhuliu4080
    @taizhuliu4080 Год назад +2

    国家利益和统治利益是不同的

  • @user-ft9xw3fw9n
    @user-ft9xw3fw9n Год назад +1

    小平主持很不错,总结、提问、不同观点...
    嘉宾提自己的文章太多,说观点就行了

  • @batukahramanz
    @batukahramanz Год назад

    美国之音还不如请我解说,请个陈小平这样说话都没力气的老头

  • @ligiulia1167
    @ligiulia1167 Год назад +1

    许成刚教授的观点也非常深刻,期待他的访谈。

    • @user-tt9tx9hy9p
      @user-tt9tx9hy9p Год назад +1

      此前采访过许教授,争取过一阵有机会再次采访。

    • @ligiulia1167
      @ligiulia1167 Год назад

      @@user-tt9tx9hy9p是的,之前就是看得您的採訪

  • @jimmyzhangming
    @jimmyzhangming Год назад +2

    嘉宾的发言 让人理解 的 能力可以提高

  • @weiliu1604
    @weiliu1604 Год назад

    这位法国教授在节目中用了有一半的时间在炫耀自己如何地料事如神,实在听不下去了😢

  • @takedowntheccp1229
    @takedowntheccp1229 Год назад

    你们是刚睡醒么 文贵先生不是几年前就说清楚了么

  • @tarragonart5113
    @tarragonart5113 Год назад +2

    这个时代的民主是最好的社会形态,但必须是以基督教文明的民主,其它社会文化的民主觉大部分都是胡扯

    • @killsina3271
      @killsina3271 Год назад

      日本的民主是扯淡?非洲埃塞俄比亚第一个基督教国家民主扯淡不

  • @dsby639
    @dsby639 Год назад

    每天都很激动

  • @dsby639
    @dsby639 Год назад +2

    听voa有四十年了

  • @user-kb8su1rt1m
    @user-kb8su1rt1m Год назад +1

    怎么取了个这样的名字:小平

  • @nybja2221
    @nybja2221 Год назад

    教授的唇色不对,去检查

  • @123oldoffice2
    @123oldoffice2 Год назад +5

    美国之音不容易,总算找了脑子还算正常的人谈一个需要脑子正常人看的节目

  • @jimmyzhangming
    @jimmyzhangming Год назад +2

    战已经 是进行时 N久了。

  • @bizhangwang1603
    @bizhangwang1603 Год назад +3

    一直在吹自已,水平太低

  • @聂丹
    @聂丹 Год назад

    ss

  • @user-sl8zj7ei1w
    @user-sl8zj7ei1w Год назад +1

    😂

  • @d.d2179
    @d.d2179 Год назад +1

    又一'"专家"。不知所云。哈哈。

  • @girlsletter
    @girlsletter Год назад +1

    简单说:政治家企图用政治分工来代替经济分工。我的结论是:大概率做不到,如果想要做到,需要痛苦10年up,因为它违反了经济规律,有点像当年苏联各个加盟共和国的模式,除非美国能够团结60%以上的国家,现实是:中国仍然是全球140个国家的最大商品交易对象。西方政治家这种分道扬镳的企图,可能只能在某1-2个行业做到。

    • @user-sd8cv3ts2k
      @user-sd8cv3ts2k Год назад +2

      一脑袋浆糊

    • @lioicomestai3703
      @lioicomestai3703 Год назад

      Division of Labor - you'd read Adam Smith's then you'd learnt what the nature, motivation/benefit and mechanism behind. Personally I see it as part of Social Gravity.
      "分道扬镳" is must and such 企图 has been already based on western assumption that middle class rising led to social democratized transaction. Therefore, your "政治分工" concept is unreal.
      BTW, your "现实是", "仍然是" "最大商品 (I’d use word “products”) 交易对象" won't last forever. Pls wait 2 year time, or you may see the difference even next year.
      Note, I refuse to argue with CCP United Front.
      料依 [翻譯] 勞動分工--你讀過亞當·斯密的著作,然後你就會了解背後的本質、動機/利益和機制。 我個人認為這是社會引力的一部分。
      “分道揚镳” 是必須的,這樣的企圖曾經建是立在西方假設中產階級崛起導致社會民主化交易的基礎上。因此,你的 “政治分工” 概念是虛构的。
      順便說一句,你的“現在是”、“仍然是”、“最大商品(我會用“產品”這個詞)交易對象”不會永遠持續下去。請等待 2 年時間,您甚至可以在明年看到差異。
      請注意,我拒絕與中共統戰爭論。

    • @girlsletter
      @girlsletter Год назад

      @@lioicomestai3703 我估计你都没有做过什么国际贸易,我做了30年,这个季度,中国对东盟出口增加了10%up,是洗澡蟹,美国装聋作哑。你可以谷歌“洗澡蟹”

    • @lioicomestai3703
      @lioicomestai3703 Год назад

      @@girlsletter What kind of chip you used inside those Bath Crabs you export to ASEAN? Do you know Dram Exchange? I been there 25 years and left before Wuhan Virus.

    • @girlsletter
      @girlsletter Год назад

      @@lioicomestai3703 糊锅神山只唱了不到2年,今年台湾鲜有人提及这个词,为什么?青山遮不住,毕竟东流去。

  • @oneli8492
    @oneli8492 Год назад

    江山永驻世代掌权是根本,学者大V这样理论那样理论,都没有直击根本夸夸其谈!

  • @CHINA_52099
    @CHINA_52099 Год назад +6

    跟随西方,跟随美国,只能永远做别人的跟班。
    不想做别人的跟班,就得另辟蹊径、另立山头,而另立就代表着分庭对抗。
    我们跟西方的矛盾是两个文明体系的竞争矛盾,是两个体系谁领导谁,谁吞并谁的矛盾,这种矛盾根本就不可能调和。
    如果不站在这个高度去看问题,必然被对方阵营拉拢洗脑,必然赞同对方阵营的价值理念。

    • @annleland6422
      @annleland6422 Год назад +4

      不當跟班,做領班當然很好,目前中國有這種能力嗎?

    • @CHINA_52099
      @CHINA_52099 Год назад +1

      @@annleland6422 记住:中国有着5000年的领导经验!

    • @zhzhou
      @zhzhou Год назад

      @@annleland6422 5000年的奴才史,5000年的压迫史,

    • @pureffecto
      @pureffecto Год назад +10

      这又一个五毛粉红

    • @allenshue8342
      @allenshue8342 Год назад +12

      @@CHINA_52099 一谈历史五千年,一聊发展不到五十年,咋说都是你有理😂

  • @girlsletter
    @girlsletter Год назад +1

    教授遗漏了非常重要的一点:发展中国家,即使是美国企图拉拢的印度,也在反思和进步,不会像中国80年代一样傻傻的任西方摆布,很多跨国企业在印度有生不如死的感觉,是因为不能完全如愿控制印度经济,印度太防备了,哈哈。而教授只注目于西方国家的反思和进步。

    • @user-sd8cv3ts2k
      @user-sd8cv3ts2k Год назад

      中国都加入WTO了还不遵守其规则呢,西方摆布得了中国?

  • @lixi7579
    @lixi7579 Год назад

    美国的以规则为基础的国际秩序和保护美国的利益归根结底就是美国的人均GDP必须永远是发展中国家人均GDP的12倍。也就是美国人干一小时工作,别人应该干12小时,这样才合理,才是以规则为基础的秩序。如果哪个国家发展快了,改变12比1规则,那绝对要打压下去,否则就是世界变了,美国利益受损了,也就是世界不公平了。这就是为何美国要保持军力第一,制裁中国贸易,打压中国科技,制裁中国上千家公司,支持有争议的国家和地区军事武力冲突。护栏就是护住12比1,拦住别国发展。那么,你说美国对发展中国家的优惠政策(最惠国贸易待遇)怎么讲?很容易,如果发展中国家人都死光了,谁来向美国提供廉价产品呢?但这些贸易规则是有前提的,也就是人均GDP 12比1的世界秩序,这个秩序变了,贸易优惠也就取消了。美国实在是太伟大了!

    • @lioicomestai3703
      @lioicomestai3703 Год назад

      Felt your US hatred in your narrative. 2022 or 1Q 2023 Cina & US Trade figures shown Your CCP Cina is still on beneficial/positive side. If you dare to call your CCP to boycott trading/exporting those cheapy goods (even it was 1:120 or 1:1200) to the West, you most likely would end in jail.
      US military power status of quote is nothing to do with CCP rising. It has been since WWII.
      US had won 1st Cold War, Mao somehow stood on Yankee side.
      US's low-end goods supply chain rebuilding is based on risk diversity rather than decupling CCP Cina.
      Your whinging is powerless for CCP. It is nothing you can do about. Too late. CCP's Leninism faith (chosen Shi Chairman) made Cina people deserver it. Yes, on this point US has been great. I agree with you.
      If 1:12 is a true reason, it would too easy to resolve it. Wish your "RUN" philosophy going on well.
      CCP used Karl's "Capital" to brainwash you all believing Social Living standard is decided by goods making hours such as "美国人干一小时工作,别人应该干12小时". But CCP didn't tell you that they nationalized most key private production means caused such social absoluteness that lead to poor living. The damage has done in last 10 years or so is nothing to do with US. It is taking affect your real right now socially.... more to come. Be prepare rather enjoy it.
      在你的敘述中感受到你對美國的仇恨。顯示的 2022 年或 2023 年第一季度中國和美國貿易數據您的 CCP Cina 仍然處於有利/積極的一面。如果你敢號召你的中共抵制向西方交易/出口那些廉價商品(即使是 1:120 或 1:1200),你很可能會被關進監獄。
      美國軍力地位的引用與中共的崛起無關。自二戰以來一直如此。
      美國贏得了第一次冷戰,毛不知何故站在了洋基一邊。
      美國的低端商品供應鏈重建是基於風險分散,而不是與中共中國脫鉤。
      你的牢騷對中共是無能為力的。這是你無能為力的。為時已晚。中共的列寧主義信仰(選擇石主席)讓中國人活該。是的,在這一點上美國做得很好。我同意你的看法。
      如果1:12是真的原因,那就太容易解決了。祝愿您的“RUN”哲學繼續下去。
      CCP用卡爾的《資本論》給你們洗腦,認為社會生活水平是由商品生產時間決定的,比如“美國人乾一小時工作,別人應幹12小時”。但是中共沒有告訴你,他們將最關鍵的私人生產資料收歸國有,造成了這種導致生活貧困的社會絕對化。過去10年左右造成的損害與美國無關。它正在影響你現在的社交……更多。做好準備而不是享受它。

    • @lixi7579
      @lixi7579 Год назад

      @@lioicomestai3703虽然十分费力,但我还是明白了你要说什么。总结中国和美国的不同。 China: Let us cooperate and do business together, beneficial to both of our people,for all countries including USA.
      USA: Let us cooperate militarily against countries that do not follow our ideology, including China.

    • @lioicomestai3703
      @lioicomestai3703 Год назад

      @@lixi7579 Disagree on your narratives. But agree with the fact - US/States/The West is hugely different from CCP Cina.
      Here comes my version -
      CCP Cina doing business beneficial all then including the States, Yes. But not now.
      (Omitting crucial and lengthy causes here.)
      Since the West found CCP is attempting to change the rule in its own ways. Some right-wing US politicians thought “The snake starting to bite the Farmer who warmed up the animal with his own chest body-heat”.
      2ndly the West found doing business with CCP has made it stronger but thus far the hope to democratizing “Cina” to be China like Taiwan has been diminished desperately in large “USA social scale”.
      The West is starting withdraw its own social efforts in pace domestically and internationally.
      The turning point of US-CCP relationship is fundamental. Ideological led social institutional deep spit unsurfaced. This is my one of social philosophical bases support the view Cold War II.
      US has no intension to top CCP regime. History approve it. Kim Jo Un, Cube, Vietnam, Iran, Putien are all functions well domestically.
      On you view of US military, there are two reasons -
      1) History = WWII;
      2) Henry Kissinger’s strategy was well adapted.
      On 2nd point you might have fare bit reading to do. If you were a Wall Climber, it would be harder.
      I only can hint you, Biden sent 2 aircraft carriers to Asian in his 1st of Inauguration; 3rd one the week after, calling it as “balance of power” in order to achieve 1st of part deterrence strategy. Then the Alaska meeting followed. Until now the call “Mr Secretary General, pls pick up the phone” is just a continuous effort of 3C (Compete, Confront and Corporate).

    • @lixi7579
      @lixi7579 Год назад

      @@lioicomestai3703 you tried hard to prove that USA has right to do what it does: remains no 1 miliary power, suppress the ones it thinks right. I say every one on the earth deserves a good live, including people in all the countries you mentioned in your narrative. Even if it changes 1:12 "rule based international law". You know what the rule based international law is not UN chapter. UN chapter basics is all countries are equal.

    • @lioicomestai3703
      @lioicomestai3703 Год назад

      @@lixi7579 Your nationalism tone sounded very familiar although I don’t admire it at all. But using idealism to defend yourself is a pretty handy but cheap in another sense. So would be the same by using Egalitarianism.
      Assuming you haven’t done all above, I agree with all you said except “my trying” to prove …. Our high school history textbook got enough materials on colonialism, slave trading, Racism past, Brutality committed during every major stages of history including Vietnam War, Iraq War etc. Western History never is half bright at all.
      Not just US’s non governments are perfect. Personally I can be as much critical as you can image toward my own government. But it not the topic here. On same token, I do admire what CCP Cina achieved in last 40 or 20 years becoming 2nd largest economic entity. I often ask and seek for true reasons economically, politically and sociologically. So far I haven’t got one externally. Have you got one for me? One thing for sure it is not due to Leninism ideology or Maoism.
      Back to the reality, US has been taken World Policing role since WWII is a fact regardless how morally you and me accuse of it. But US also got its own unique geopolitics tradition - isolationism. They are promoting allies building now to facing current major authoritarianism challenge.
      Thus, every single West military fleet go through Taiwan Strait would inform CCP defense official is imaginable rather than a fiction. It is a curtesy instead of asking for a permission.
      On diplomat front, CCP has achieved pretty remarkable. Eg. In middle east, Phone conversation to Ukraine president … you may know more than me. Only pity is it have been talked much as “telling China Story Well” demanded by Chairman Shi. Instead the Ambassador to France Lu Sa Ye upset many European neighbouring countries.
      Therefore, your 12:1 narrative emotionally is pretty reasonable and you were not 1st nor last express it. If it was from a comedian I’d laugh loudly. So hope you’d improve your narrative in the future.
      On China, US’s foreign policy is very clear, maintaining state of quote. That’s it. You must know the difference between deterrence and provoking confrontation. The entire West is on former rather than later.
      Now coming to your idealism, UN Chapter, your Egalitarianism like quality or maybe the Universal Value although you didn’t mention it at all perhaps (as a guess perhaps CCP doesn’t approve it politically) they are only partially viable in my view. The majority of the world is ruled by International norm. So called legality among sovereign countries got much less mandate.
      That is why you have BRICS or Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Russian Cina Allies, DPRK CCP Cina treaty etc. On the West, you’d Washington treaty just being signed between Seoul and US, NATO, Five Eyes (only four now since I was told one of eye would being blinded by Zhao Li Jian, hope it was true).
      So I agree International Law is not UN Chapters which is less powerful. Also Country Power overwrites social quality that only existing in the UN Chapters at most occasions.
      Even the Carnegie (Endowment for International Peace) report published in Sep. 2021 before the election involved current US’s security advisor Jack Sullivan said “強己方能攘外” (suspected Sullivan pinched it from Chairman Mao’s words, 毛主席語錄). It got a recognition of “Rust States” became victim of Globalization etc.
      Giving last eg. how I attitude on Biden Administration, the 2nd day of US pulling out from Afghanistan I openly raised the event in a very critical manner to an Asian Candidate yet to be to join a State Election. I believe it was a humanistic disaster.
      I also pleased to be told that 4 female protectors were released by Shanghai police bureau after detained since last year for “Blank Paper Social Movement”. That’s real equal between me and them intellectually although I was truly protected by our social institutions.