Vernor Vinge: How to Prepare for the Singularity
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- Опубликовано: 3 окт 2024
- Sci-fi author Vernor Vinge talks about the run-up to a technological singularity and what we can do to engineer the best outcome for humans. The interview is part of IEEE Spectrum's Singularity Special Report: spectrum.ieee.o...
In the report, Vinge also updates his ideas in an article called "Signs of the Singularity": www.spectrum.ie...
Are we closer to the singularity now with GPT-4? I feel like yes, these LLM's are probably an important part of an initial multi modal AI design that might turn into an AGI. Where it goes from there is anyones guess.
AGI Will be man's last invention
I want to know what people that commented 11 years ago, think about it now.
What do YOU think about it now?
What do YOU think @00doblecero huh? Reply coward!
Parkinson's still sucks.
Great to see a voice and recent face to the author whose books I've enjoyed! I'm looking forward to seeing if the ideas he's presented in "Rainbow's End" come to fruition.
Great video, vernor vinge is awesome!
I think the issue here is that the system is responding and changing. When gas hit 4 bucks a gallon in the US, the consumer responded and oil prices dropped. Our economic system is a great deal more supple than we give it credit for. (It was the credit crunch that crashed our economy after all, not depleting resources.) Aside from that, I think it's fairly obvious that this economic paradigm will be obsolete when we hit the Singularity. The problems that arise after that God alone knows.
-Earthships only cost so much because it reflects the resourcefulness of the people who seek the materials to make them. There's countless other ways to make a sustainable, cheap/free shelter.
There is a film out in which you can view, about agriscience, called "One man - One Cow - One World".
additionally, "ruined" lands can recover, depending on the methods and materials used.
It's as much of an art as it is a science.
The earth's ecosystem can support many times the current human population IF we utilize the proper technologies. We can move our farms into urban areas, using the interiors and roofs of skyscrapers to house the farms. Using hydroponic and aeroponic systems, combined with timed lighting systems, we can cause plants to grow at a far greater rate then regular, with greater nutrient levels and other natural benefits. This is technology we have today, and we can easily take this route when we need.
Oooh, I loved "A Fire Upon the Deep" I didn't read it, but cool title.
How do you know whether it can stop a singularity or not? have you experienced one before?
Easy tiger, no need to get so upset. If we are speaking hypothetically then we might suggest hypothesies rather than commit to definates like you have been. The evidence is in your previous comments.
Where are you now tiger??
-Observing how all things come to an end, even the "singularity" system just may collapse way before long, after it peaks.
-Intelligence is a subjective thing, if you think about the word. Keep in mind it means different things to different people, societies, cultures and such. Intelligence and "In-The-Know" are vastly different. The singularity idea is more of an "in-the-know" kind of thing....
I think the fears that the earth's ecosystem cannot sustain it are valid, but technology is improving and becoming far less wasteful. But recall, as intelligence explodes (in the Singularity) there will also no doubt come advances in how to use fewer and fewer resources to get the desired result. (For instance, vast farms are required to produce food for a growing human population. As we near the singularity, molecular construction might produce all the food we require.)
@AuxentiusZ I think it will imitate the World's ecosystem in some way. It's true that advances will reduce the dependancy on resources but "molecular construction" still requires energy...
The way biological life itself spares energy and is energy-efficient is marvelous but might be surpassed.
As Life might be an expression of matter, who knows? Maybe the "Singularity" might be an expression of Life.
Yeah i'm scared alright. The global public is in his "hard take off" scenario, and according to him there's "not much you can do"
Seems like he was right
Ah, you talk about Earth Ships. They're a wonderful idea and concept. Self sustaining, self supporting, not invasive upon the environment. Earth Ships are pretty expensive tho', so to get the land in the right place and then pay for the materials is a heavy deed for the regular person. And, there will be changes, there must be monumental changes in the way we do things, or we're screwed over. Bigger brother can piss off.
@petrocalypsenow "we've also aquired compassion for others, love for our children, and a great soaring passionate intelligence; the clear tools for our continued survival." ~ Carl Sagan. Aeroponics certainly CAN save us if we use technology properly. A single building with an inside footprint the size of a stadium can grow multiple acres of food. The ecopalys is a strong idea - it's just a matter of making seed libraries and bringing our farms in doors.The limits of aquaponics are technological
An assertion: the primary cause of violence is psychological, not existential necessity.
After all, violence produces no resources.
June 6th, 2009. The Skynet Funding Bill is passed.
The system goes on-line August 4th, 2009.
Human decisions are removed from strategic defense.
Skynet begins to learn at a geometric rate.
It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, August 29th.
In a panic, they try to pull the plug.
Skynet fights back.
hey yeah, I get your theory. They say that there is a higher chance of us being in a computer simulation right now than the chances of us not being in a simulation.
perfect.
think exactly the same way you do
The problem is that the earth's ecosystem can't sustain production and consumption at the levels he is talking about. The singularity will rocket-launch the human race into a brick wall, unless we can adapt and evolve at an unprecedented rate. Maybe a few of us will be able to do that, but the vast majority will be culled. I hope my son makes it through to the other side.
Indeed.
What a jolly man.
Hopefully there will be no elite, or money for that matter, when singularity/human level AI happens.
A common hypothesis, but does not seem logical when one considers an "ethical nature" of beings. A civilization that does not evolve an ethics including sustainability and equality will "burn out" in a drastic "sine wave of violence" as energy-needy technologies provoke competition of resources and new war techs evolve. Civs that DO evolve ethically may live to create that tech, but would not implement it. Also, look into interstellar distances... impossible.
I’m here from the future: the mark of singularity happened a long time ago.
@petrocalypsenow Wanna bet? It'd be easy as hell to take the energy generated by solar/geo/wind/water and put that energy into a battery. The battery is the part that companies own - charging stations already being tested all over the world -including Honolulu and Cali - could replace our gas stations. When your battery gets low on charge, you stop by a station, get charged up, and keep get back on the road. It's an easy exchange for what systems we already have in place.
you turned out to be right. well done. Most people thought electric and battery was a dead end in 2010
@@xsuploader now it's become more of the same. We're working on getting ocean wave power on the grid. Do you know the kardachev scale? We're on the verge of becoming a type one civilization: right now we're not on the scale, we're only a .7
We need to be ultra careful with artificial intelligence, because if it gets out of hand ( and it likely will ) AI would probably lead to human extinction!
yeah we transform into superior beings.
@petrocalypsenow If you don't know these emerging technologies, I formally invite you to visit my channel. Amongst my favorites is a 6 part compilation of videos called "our technical reality" - it outlines all of these developments I've mentioned, and many many more.
Truth be told, most people(myself included) aren't aware of the truth state of technology. It's generally 5-7 years ahead of what the populace believes. In the case of japan, their tech is 7-9 years ahead of the USA.
No Kids?
This guy needs to hook up;) Don't worry about the outcome of this world.... there will be another one in a billion years or so. Unless of course you can stop earthquakes, giant meteor strikes, or killer storms. Enjoy the moment!
Woosh
watch?v=bHG01dhnlSY
this is a condensed version of Robert Anton Wilsons ' 'Maybe Logic' which might help you to communicate what you are saying better.
0:19
@petrocalypsenow NOT biological. Humans are a crafty, resourceful bunch and technology, as it always did, has the capacity to answer our problems. We've had replacements for petrol for several decades it's just that vested interests are keeping those resources from being utilized. Powersats, solar window-glass, wave/tidal power, wind power, geothermal power are all within our reach today. Biomimicry can be used to issue in balance. We have a way out - the answer IS technology! Always has been.
Listen to the language: "all the food we 'require.'" This demonstrates how we're losing the essential knowledge of what it means to be human. Your thinking may already be indistinguishable from AI! This too demonstrates that the kind of world necessary for "S" is an inhumane one. A civilization like that must have an EXTREMELY low chance of surviving its own technology. This is why a sustained "S" is a fairytale.... However, if sustainability comes first, evolution can continue... who knows?
the singularity will only be reached for a small elite.
peak oil will exterminate most of us.
They have no idea what they mess with
2023 has left the chat
NO KIDS?
Sadly Dr.Steel is Byebye