Air Marshal GS Bedi seems to be such a knowledgeable and competent person. Huge respect for him. I see a lot of retired high ranking personal on Twitter with shallow knowledge, huge mouth and who just try to play communal card. It makes me feel if the top leadership is even capable of setting the right culture in Armed forces. Looking at ppl like GS Bedi and HS Panag, it makes me feel that we do have people with so much clarity in thoughts. Huge mouth and war mongering does not win wars. Clarity of thoughts and strategy does.
Sat sri akaal Honorable Bedi sahib ji dear Aadi as well all listeners, thanks for explaining the difficult issue in a very simple language... JAI HIND, VANDEMATRAM...
While the cost aspect is certainly concerning, the following should be noted: As of today, the IAF has 30 active fighter squadrons. These comprise 13 Su-30MKI squadrons, 2 Tejas squadrons, 2 Rafale squadrons, 3 Mirage 2000 squadrons, 2 MiG-29 squadrons, 6 Jaguar squadrons, and 2 MiG-21 squadrons. Of these, the 2 MiG-21 squadrons will be retire / changeover in 2025, followed by the 6 Jaguar squadrons between 2028 and 2035, and the 5 Mirage 2000 and MiG-29 squadrons between 2036 and 2040. If we go by HAL's promises (which is an insanely optimistic thing to do, but I'll cover that in a bit), Tejas Mk 1A production is to be scaled up to 16 by 2025-26, and up to 24 by 2028-29. Even if those numbers are achieved, and we assume HAL will deliver 8 aircraft in 2024-25 (that is, by the end of March next year), the 180 Tejas Mk 1As (83+97) will only be delivered in 2033-34. Note that this figure assumes that the stated production numbers are achieved and capacity for other projects such as the Tejas Mk 2 and AMCA are completely independent. This won't be the case, so we shall take this into account. If Tejas Mk 2 production starts in 2031-32, and HAL can deliver 8 jets a year till 2033-34 and 16 in 2034-35 (both overly optimistic), by 2034-35, we would have 40 aircraft. Therefore, combining Points 2 and 3, we see that by 2034-35 (that is, the year when the last Jaguar squadron would be planned for retirement), we would have 180 Tejas Mk 1As and 40 Tejas Mk 2s. That makes for 10-11 active squadrons. Compared to today, we have retired 8 squadrons. Therefore, the IAF would now be at 32-33 squadrons, far short of the 42 squadron target. Let's further assume that the conclusion of Tejas Mk 1A production allows for one line (8 aircraft) to be switched over to the Tejas Mk 2, with the remaining two lines going to AMCA. This would allow for 24 Tejas Mk 2 aircraft to be built from 2036-37. Let's also assume AMCA production starts at 8 aircraft in 2034-35, and scales up to 16 from 2036-37. By 2040, when the last of the Mirage 2000s and MiG-29s have left service, we now have a further (as compared to 2034-35) 122 Tejas Mk 2 and 80 AMCA. That makes for 10 active squadrons. This puts the IAF at 37-38 squadrons by 2040, which is still short of the 42 squadron target. Assuming Tejas Mk 2 production caps at 200 aircraft, production would cease in 2042. By that point, we would have a further (as compared to 2040) 32-40 AMCA. That puts the IAF at 41-42 squadrons, which is barely scratching the target. By the early 2040s, the Su-30MKI would be nearing the end of its lifespan, and retirements would start around 2043 (to allow for 1 squadron to be retired each year, for a final retirement in 2055). Thus, the 42 squadron target would only sustainably be achieved in the late 2040s. Based on the above points, it is clear that indigenous production (even at its most optimistic) may well not be enough. That is to say nothing about the calls to increase that target to 51-60 squadrons to account for the increased strength of the Air Forces of China and Bhikaristan. Now, coming to practical considerations (as I referred to above): A. HAL's claims are not sustainable for the simple reason that putting those capacities together would reach 32 aircraft a year by the start of the 2030s, and would further increase to 56 aircraft a year by 2036 (adding TEDBF production). B. Engine bottleneck concerns, be it for F404 deliveries or for local manufacturing of the F414 or the 110 kN engine, have not been considered here. To manufacture 54 aircraft a year by the late 2030s or early 2040s, we would need 120+ engines (80 for the 40 twin-engined aircraft + 24 for the 24 single-engined aircraft + spares for the IAF). That is a very massive capacity requirement. A more realistic estimate would be to assume a (still optimistic) 75% production efficiency for HAL. That would mean Tejas Mk 1A production would cease in 2036-37, Tejas Mk 2 production would cease in 2046-47, and AMCA would reach 168 aircraft by 2047, with TEDBF production standing at 108 by that point. That puts us at 42 squadrons in total by 2047, taking into consideration Su-30MKI retirement. Now, coming to the cost aspects: The Rafale is a very expensive fighter, and we know for a fact that local production does tend to cost more. However, as evident by the numbers presented above, we really do not have any alternative to MRFA. This is a bullet we must bite, like it or not. If we take an aircraft other than the Rafale for MRFA (say, the F-21) for lower costs, we face the problem that we are facing with the Mirage 2000 today: Difficulty in sourcing spares. Like it or not, this is a bullet we must bite for the costs, unless we are willing to take the aforementioned logistical headache 20 years down the line.
We have always upgraded types of warfare and never preferred Peace and happiness for everyone. Presently we have economic, and political warfare as most advanced version of weapon.
31:00 every part of world AF has Active as well as Passive defence in final development or field deployment stage.. passive we heard tha BEL & Zen worked on but for active/reactive we haven't seen anything.. programmable ammunition be it 30 or 40mm is going to tackle these UAVs but our IAF hasn't seen to bring tender/competition to get these..
#ASK Jay Hind Sir. Sir Why 114 MRFA is delayed. Sir kya hame 5th gen stealth fighter aircraft chahiye ya 4.5 gen suitable hai present situation mein.
35:14 with due respect where was our AD post Balakot was it only to hit our haptors... this layering is bullshit.. S400 was pipe dream which was asked to tackle the losing 12 mig21 squadrons.. our threat is from known location from west(ranges of these AD are upto enemy's border) but still we weren't able to do with Akash, MRSAM of this world..
AM Bedi ji can we use balloons for surveillance as well as use the to launch jamming and firing against drones from enemy countries It would be cheaper and extra layer of surveillance and defense
Air Marshal Bedi reminds me of my college professor.He just needs a piece of chalk in his hand and a blackboard in the background. Fantastic man!
Sir G S BEDJI is the pride of India as well as the Airforce.
Air Marshal GS Bedi seems to be such a knowledgeable and competent person. Huge respect for him. I see a lot of retired high ranking personal on Twitter with shallow knowledge, huge mouth and who just try to play communal card. It makes me feel if the top leadership is even capable of setting the right culture in Armed forces. Looking at ppl like GS Bedi and HS Panag, it makes me feel that we do have people with so much clarity in thoughts. Huge mouth and war mongering does not win wars. Clarity of thoughts and strategy does.
Sat sri akaal Honorable Bedi sahib ji dear Aadi as well all listeners, thanks for explaining the difficult issue in a very simple language... JAI HIND, VANDEMATRAM...
Jai Hind! Jai Bharat!
Excellent talk Aadiji❤
Best crash course on air defense 🙏
Awesome podcast ! I love the Air Marshal GS Bedi episodes , gives a very realistic picture
Wonderful Pathshala Sir Marshal Bedi Sir, thanks a ton.
@aadi Absolutely love your intro
Your discussion is always well researched and covers all interesting points. I enjoyed the discussion. Thanks.
Best man for any queries on Air warfare...Thank you Air Marshall sir..
Wow!! Excellent information, thanks to both of you 🙏🙏🙏
Electronics and telecommunication guruji Air Marshal bedi ji, great to see again.
Terrific knowledge 👍👍
Really enjoyed the discussion sir it was very insightful 💯
वन्दे मातरम् 🙏🏾
Its always great to see the air force insight from the Bedi sir
Jai Hind Jai Bharath 🙏
Hi Aadi
Fabulous podcast
But Pl don't interrupt the guests
Espl when the guests is in floww
Jai Bharat 🇮🇳❤
Thank you for giving us a proper technical knowledge
Thanks you AM Bedi
Jai Bharat
Jai hind, good morning Addi. Keep doing great job. Jai hind
While the cost aspect is certainly concerning, the following should be noted:
As of today, the IAF has 30 active fighter squadrons. These comprise 13 Su-30MKI squadrons, 2 Tejas squadrons, 2 Rafale squadrons, 3 Mirage 2000 squadrons, 2 MiG-29 squadrons, 6 Jaguar squadrons, and 2 MiG-21 squadrons. Of these, the 2 MiG-21 squadrons will be retire / changeover in 2025, followed by the 6 Jaguar squadrons between 2028 and 2035, and the 5 Mirage 2000 and MiG-29 squadrons between 2036 and 2040.
If we go by HAL's promises (which is an insanely optimistic thing to do, but I'll cover that in a bit), Tejas Mk 1A production is to be scaled up to 16 by 2025-26, and up to 24 by 2028-29. Even if those numbers are achieved, and we assume HAL will deliver 8 aircraft in 2024-25 (that is, by the end of March next year), the 180 Tejas Mk 1As (83+97) will only be delivered in 2033-34. Note that this figure assumes that the stated production numbers are achieved and capacity for other projects such as the Tejas Mk 2 and AMCA are completely independent. This won't be the case, so we shall take this into account.
If Tejas Mk 2 production starts in 2031-32, and HAL can deliver 8 jets a year till 2033-34 and 16 in 2034-35 (both overly optimistic), by 2034-35, we would have 40 aircraft.
Therefore, combining Points 2 and 3, we see that by 2034-35 (that is, the year when the last Jaguar squadron would be planned for retirement), we would have 180 Tejas Mk 1As and 40 Tejas Mk 2s. That makes for 10-11 active squadrons. Compared to today, we have retired 8 squadrons. Therefore, the IAF would now be at 32-33 squadrons, far short of the 42 squadron target.
Let's further assume that the conclusion of Tejas Mk 1A production allows for one line (8 aircraft) to be switched over to the Tejas Mk 2, with the remaining two lines going to AMCA. This would allow for 24 Tejas Mk 2 aircraft to be built from 2036-37. Let's also assume AMCA production starts at 8 aircraft in 2034-35, and scales up to 16 from 2036-37.
By 2040, when the last of the Mirage 2000s and MiG-29s have left service, we now have a further (as compared to 2034-35) 122 Tejas Mk 2 and 80 AMCA. That makes for 10 active squadrons. This puts the IAF at 37-38 squadrons by 2040, which is still short of the 42 squadron target.
Assuming Tejas Mk 2 production caps at 200 aircraft, production would cease in 2042. By that point, we would have a further (as compared to 2040) 32-40 AMCA. That puts the IAF at 41-42 squadrons, which is barely scratching the target.
By the early 2040s, the Su-30MKI would be nearing the end of its lifespan, and retirements would start around 2043 (to allow for 1 squadron to be retired each year, for a final retirement in 2055). Thus, the 42 squadron target would only sustainably be achieved in the late 2040s.
Based on the above points, it is clear that indigenous production (even at its most optimistic) may well not be enough. That is to say nothing about the calls to increase that target to 51-60 squadrons to account for the increased strength of the Air Forces of China and Bhikaristan.
Now, coming to practical considerations (as I referred to above):
A. HAL's claims are not sustainable for the simple reason that putting those capacities together would reach 32 aircraft a year by the start of the 2030s, and would further increase to 56 aircraft a year by 2036 (adding TEDBF production).
B. Engine bottleneck concerns, be it for F404 deliveries or for local manufacturing of the F414 or the 110 kN engine, have not been considered here. To manufacture 54 aircraft a year by the late 2030s or early 2040s, we would need 120+ engines (80 for the 40 twin-engined aircraft + 24 for the 24 single-engined aircraft + spares for the IAF). That is a very massive capacity requirement.
A more realistic estimate would be to assume a (still optimistic) 75% production efficiency for HAL. That would mean Tejas Mk 1A production would cease in 2036-37, Tejas Mk 2 production would cease in 2046-47, and AMCA would reach 168 aircraft by 2047, with TEDBF production standing at 108 by that point. That puts us at 42 squadrons in total by 2047, taking into consideration Su-30MKI retirement.
Now, coming to the cost aspects: The Rafale is a very expensive fighter, and we know for a fact that local production does tend to cost more. However, as evident by the numbers presented above, we really do not have any alternative to MRFA. This is a bullet we must bite, like it or not. If we take an aircraft other than the Rafale for MRFA (say, the F-21) for lower costs, we face the problem that we are facing with the Mirage 2000 today: Difficulty in sourcing spares.
Like it or not, this is a bullet we must bite for the costs, unless we are willing to take the aforementioned logistical headache 20 years down the line.
Jai Hind Sir 🫡
Air marshal bedi sir and adi sir
Thanks for detailed info.
Jai Hind Jai Bharat
जय भारत
Jai Bharat ❤
When Bharat Grows chini slows Bharat Mata ki Jai
BEDI SAHEB JAY HIND 🙏🏾🇮🇳
Jai hind jai Bharat 🙏
AADI - KUDOS - PLEASE DO FULL SHOW ON THE ATTACK OF PAK RADAR STATION AT BADEN BY IAF IN 1965 WAR - SATSRIKAL
Vande maa taram
@ask adi. if I may, can we have a triage of Marshal Bedi, Gd Bakshi & AJ Raina
Electro magnetic aircraft launch EMAL
We have always upgraded types of warfare and never preferred Peace and happiness for everyone. Presently we have economic, and political warfare as most advanced version of weapon.
Jay Shreeram🙏
Jai shree Ram Jai Bharat Jai Shree Krishna
E2 Hawkeye - carrier based AWACS
EMAL - electromagnetic launch system.
He may be asking if India wants E2 then our carriers need to have EMALs
Hai sir
JAI Shree RAM 🇮🇳
Funny thing is that Indian students graduating from Foreign Aerospace Universities aren't allowed to join ISRO Defence Establishments?
Hindi❤❤❤❤
31:00 every part of world AF has Active as well as Passive defence in final development or field deployment stage.. passive we heard tha BEL & Zen worked on but for active/reactive we haven't seen anything.. programmable ammunition be it 30 or 40mm is going to tackle these UAVs but our IAF hasn't seen to bring tender/competition to get these..
#ASK Jay Hind Sir. Sir Why 114 MRFA is delayed. Sir kya hame 5th gen stealth fighter aircraft chahiye ya 4.5 gen suitable hai present situation mein.
35:14 with due respect where was our AD post Balakot was it only to hit our haptors... this layering is bullshit.. S400 was pipe dream which was asked to tackle the losing 12 mig21 squadrons.. our threat is from known location from west(ranges of these AD are upto enemy's border) but still we weren't able to do with Akash, MRSAM of this world..
Please go out and vote to save our country Bharat
In drdo promotion is given on the basis of seniority so how does that work.
AM Bedi ji can we use balloons for surveillance as well as use the to launch jamming and firing against drones from enemy countries
It would be cheaper and extra layer of surveillance and defense
Download not available
Hindi please🙏
When bharat grows corona slowd
🖖
Vote for bjp encourage your near and dear jaha Voting suru hone Wali ha vote for bjp bjp vote bjp vote
What a great topic but unfortunately in English
Hindi pls🙏🏼🙏🏼
You must use Hindi as your medium please
This is for all Indians to understand. English is a suitable medium
Jay Bharat
Jai hind jai bharat ❤
Jai Hind Jai Bharat
Jai Bharat ❤