Are ASML’s Days of Lithography Dominance Coming to An End? ASML and Canon Stock Analysis
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- Опубликовано: 21 май 2024
- Watch our video: "Investing in Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment Stocks: The Ultimate 2024 Guide" 👉 • AI Supercycle: Your Ul...
ASML has a stranglehold (but not a total monopoly) on lithography equipment for semiconductor manufacturing. Japanese conglomerate Canon (CAJPY) is doubling down on competing advanced chipmaking equipment it originally acquired in 2014, and recently announced a new breakthrough it thinks could compete with ASML’s most advanced machines. Canon certainly wants to be more than a PR-driven player in this department, but ASML’s roots are deep in the chip supply chain.
In this video, Chip Stock Investors Nick and Kasey discuss aspects of lithography that make ASML special, but how Canon’s nanoimprint lithography (NIL) machines could make some headway in the years to come. They also discuss how they’re handling ASML stock, given its elevated valuation and new risks that could emerge for the business.
Chapters:
0:00 The Semiconductor Manufacturing Process
03:11 ASML & Canon In the Semiconductor Manufacturing Process
10:11 Photolithography vs Nano Imprint Lithography
15:59 What Happened to NIL?
17:54 How Can NIL Be Used?
20:09 ASML vs Canon Stock
25:17 Is ASML At Risk?
Links for source material:
global.canon/en/technology/ni...
semiengineering.com/what-happ...
global.canon/en/news/2023/202...
• Applied Materials’ Pat... www.appliedmaterials.com/us/e...
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#asml #Canon #lithography #duv #euv #nanoimprint
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Nick and Kasey Rossolillo own shares of ASML.
Your speech speed is fine. I’m not a technical person and you guys explain the topic better than anyone else. Any faster and I will have to rewatch multiple times. You guys are great teachers.
Speed does not really matter to me, I just set the Playback speed to 1.5 or 1.75. Far more important is the invaluable content you're creating!
Thanks Philip!
Yep, same here!
great video! I had seen Canon's ad, we'll see if it works... Everyone says ASML is trading at a premium, now 29 times earnings. It is not a low P/E, but on average it has been quoted more expensive. ASML has market share and increases in billings and revenues year after year and an unmatched competitive advantage. Aren't NVDA, AMD and so many others priced more? I have had ASML shares for more than 9 years and I increase when it corrects strongly. The decrease in new orders was not due to an increase in competition, it is a product of the general and temporary lower demand for certain equipment (cell phones, CPUs, etc.). It is enough to see the lower turnover of TSM, SAMSUNG, Apple on IPhone, etc. It is true that there are geopolitical issues that influence USA AND CHINA) and the advance in this technology is dynamic in all companies. Perhaps ASML will have slight growth in 2024 and then take off again when demand grows. Thank you very much for the video and information!!
Love the shows, you don’t talk slow lol 😂. To be honest I would like longer episodes as I am a truck driver and have hours to listen to podcasts. I know it’s hard but maybe getting some guests on who know about chip stocks e.g. people who work in industry or private equity. Love your work guys keep the regular videos coming!
Thanks Chief, we appreciate it! And good to know, we tried out an audio only episode for some longer content, it takes less time to edit, we'll talk about bringing that back!
I like people who think and talk. It comes off slow to most people because our lives are so fast paced. Refreshing. Keep going!
Thank you! Will do!
Love the detailed info on the companies. Very helpful. Keep up the great work
Thanks so much for watching!
Keep talking at your own pace. I set it to 1.5 to 2X speed, even your intro and outro music is better. Love your channel. I have been watching since you had double digits subscribers. Keep it up!
Thanks a lot, we appreciate you being along for the ride -- especially from the very beginning when those early videos were so rough!
Thanks loads for the very informative video! Just a minor point, because medical equipment is only a small part of Canon's business - last year, the operating margin for Medical was just 6%. That compares to 20.5% for Danaher and 20.9% for Stryker (from Yahoo).
Hey riffs, yeah Canon seems to have some real issues. Some of these conglomerates could use some shaper focus, in our opinion!
Great video ! I would like to add two arguments that com into my mind.
First, it is not enough to sell a EUV machine, but it comes with a lot of high level maintenance, with some dedicated teams that ASML provide to it's customers. Could Canon provide the same level of expertise and monitoring, that are absolutely vital ?
Second, ASML has a long history related to Intel and others US chips companies, and with TSMC, and now switch to a completely new method of manufacturing should require an immense Capex and an amount of time that we can imagine very very difficult for a company like TSMC to invest. The switching cost seems too big to me.
These are very valid points!
I recently thought about Japan's semiconductor industry! And wondered if they would make a comeback, and indeed Canon's nanoimprint equipment according to Google Bard has higher resolution, lower cost and faster throughput (?) than traditional photolithography. Watch out ASML!
You might check the sources for Bard's response on that one. A main reason photolithography won out against NIL was because of higher throughput! NIL was just too slow, and had too many defects.
@@chipstockinvestor I now asked Google Bard about it. My question to Bard: "But doesn't NIL traditionally have slower throughput than photolithography? Is Canon using a new kind of NIL?" Bard replied (I snipped the quote): "
Traditionally, NIL has had slower throughput than photolithography. However, Canon has developed a new NIL technology called "multi-field dispense" that significantly improves throughput.
Multi-field dispense involves dispensing the imprint material onto multiple areas of the wafer at the same time, rather than dispensing and imprinting each area sequentially. This reduces overhead time and increases throughput.
Canon has also developed other technologies to improve NIL throughput, such as a new alignment system and a new resist curing system.
As a result of these improvements, Canon's NIL equipment can now achieve a throughput of up to 90 wafers per hour, which is comparable to photolithography equipment for some applications."
@@Anders01 nice clarification.
Ok, we'd say the "certain applications" part of that response is key. Photolithography, in some applications, has throughout of HUNDREDS of wafers per hour.
The problem with the new NIL tech is still deformities when stamping the whole wafer. But it seems it MIGHT be good enough for some memory chips, thus the but in our video about Toshiba/Western Digital using it a bit now. We'll have to see! NIL could wind up being the real deal in a few years from now.
@@Anders01 also, thank you for your comments! We may do a follow up to clarify some of these things you mentioned.
@@chipstockinvestor Are you sure Canon / WD are not using whole wafer stamping for patterned magnetic media ?
Highly unlikely whole wafer NIL would be possible for flash memory
Wow, great research. This could be huge… Canon goes on my watchlist NOW! Btw, you guys speak at the pace, no need to change.
Thanks Joshua!
What makes you think Canon would be a good one to watch? Do you think the small semi equipment segment can grow and become more meaningful part of the conglomerate overall?
@@chipstockinvestor no idea, but you have to watch it! They may not get it to bleeding edge, but they could change the equipment landscape for legacy nodes.
It would be interesting to talk about recent history of lithography industry. Canon and Nikon were that giant purple block.
Rapidis will overtake TSMC.
Canon NIL will challenge ASML.
BlackRock, Berkshire, Morgan Stanley, Micron, IBM, Intel have already been derisking from Taiwan and into Japan & US.
Saw this from a miles away.
by any means keep speaking that pace ! As a non english native speaker, I would never complain when americans don't eat their words. Cheers from France.
Thank you for watching, and for the feedback! We'll keep our pacing unchanged, and try not to eat our words!
Thanks for all the valuable info. Much love, Michal
Thanks Michal!
I watch you at 2x speed but no complain, just gratefulness.
Thank you David!
Could mention that RUclips has a feature accessible under the 'gear' icon that allows users to speed up video playback by 1.25 or 1.5 times normal for people that are impatient, at the cost of making your voices sound higher, of course.
I like the way you talk. English is not my native language. It is very easy to understand both of you. Please do not change it. Thank you for all the interesting information of your chanel.
Thanks Chris, we'll keep at it!
Speed doesn’t matter that much for me! Keep up the great work, love you both! =)
Thank you Bonzzzai!
Great video once again. Potential video idea - Semi Conductor companies manufacturing outside of geopolitical areas of concern and how they would potentially be impacted if those concerns became reality. Intel?
Thanks for watching, and for the topic idea, we'll think about how we might be able to address that
People will always find something to complain about. Keep up the excellent videos and don’t change a thing 👍.
Thanks Kevon!
Hi Guys, thanks for your effort. ASML stock chart looks like bubble pattern so I am cautious. Anyway thanks for great video, very useful. Kasey is gorgeous 😊
Thanks Pavel! And yes, ASML may take some more time before another leg higher, 2024 a "transition year"
Simply excellent.
I like the pace of your talks
Thanks Reza, we appreciate the feedback!
And what about 3D stacking ? if NIL is a sort of stamp, i guess it won't be compatible with 3D stacking technology.
BTW, could you give us some examples of chips using the 3D stacking technology today ?
You're right, it seems 3D stacking wouldn't work, except with NAND memory, which is the application they're going for with NIL. Beside NAND memory, the new Intel and AMD chips coming in 2024 will use chiplets and 3D stacking. More are on the way in the coming years.
Great presentation of semiconductor manufacturing process.
To simplify for investors - NIL is micro-version of embossing
Great stuff!
Happy you think so!
You're both great, keep it up!
Why thank you!
There's nothing wrong with how slow you supposedly speak. That person probably isn't able to understand they can control the speed of the playback. If I had to guess, I would say they probably don't understand the content and just want to know whether they should invest or not. Keep up the great work!
Thanks for the encouragement Mike!
Out of curiosity how does a competitor really get in the door when it takes a jumbo jet and 200m to get one of these into a foundry? How would canon convince its business that its product is better than asml? Free install, free usage, free pick up if it doesn’t work + penalties for not being able to produce?
Hey BigMountain, yeah that's pretty much the gist of it. These machines are especially big and expensive, and customers have been using ASML for many years now. NIL is still being experimented with, which means very little revenue. But apparently it's far cheaper to operate, so that's another way to get a foot in the door. Some of these advanced photolithography machines consume massive amounts of energy!
@@chipstockinvestor NIL has been experimented with for a couple of decades; by the way, Canon just acquired one of earlier firms called Molecular Imprints
I really loved my Canon pocket camera👍
No company can stay at the top forever. History taught us with so many examples. So ASML dominance will end in the near future 100%
If a company wanted to use NIL instead of DUV/EUV is it a simple matter to incorporate this new equipment into the manufacturing process? e.g. just a matter of substituting one machine for another?
Great question! It's likely not so simple. Most chips have to be designed with a very specific set of manufacturing steps and processes in mind. So the use of NIL would actually start with the engineering team working in the office on the new chip.
That makes sense. I sound as though ASML has an associated infrastructure which would be costly to replace should one decide to use another lithography. Yet another reason to remain skeptical of NIL's immediate prospects.@@chipstockinvestor
'Its just a simple matter of substitution'. Lol
I'm not sure what your point is. But I'm also not sure if your point isworth discovering.@@cressdiligent
When discussing immersion lithography, you mentioned shooting through a "droplet" of water - this is somewhat incorrect. In immersion litho, we shoot through an ultra-pure water puddle - completely covering the exposure field.
Thanks for the clarification
check the ASML vs SOXX vs Nasdaq.... stock movement is mostly about the market movement...
hi thanks for the video , thats actually my PhD research here in China. Please can you share your ppt if its possible
No, the speed is just right, for the type of content you do. I find channels that act like they are on fast-forward hard to listen to.
Awesome, appreciate the feedback Ryan!
Where can I get "Semiconductor Industry Flow Chart"?
Hi Alex, we're working on a website, we might make it available there.
Thank you@@chipstockinvestor 👍
I worked at a place that bought 4 cannon high speed high volume printers and these printers would jam after a certain cycle run. Even cheap hp heavy duty printers out perform them. They cheap plastic breaks. am not worried about them achieving 2nm. My concern is about the quality. Willthe chips suffer from damage compared to asml made ones?
Thanks for sharing your experience!
It seems that these chips will suffer some extra damage, but the memory application is forgiving of that. So it seems Toshiba is willing to proceed anyways.
@@chipstockinvestor I would be happy to see another competitor to asml. As long as it is not in the hands of asia. Competition is good because it bring quality.
@@nomadhgnis9425... Are you anti-asian as in anti-semitic?
@@genbond7459 I am mixed race. I am past indian. I do not trust my own kind because I know them well.
@@genbond7459 facts does not make me anti asian. grow up.
Both of you speak with a steady cadence; it’s neither turgid nor torpid - it’s calm. measured, and pithy. Please don’t change anything. Those viewers who prefer rambunctious podcasts can always tune in to Jim Cramer, can’t they?
Lol thanks Kyle! We don't want to emulate Jim Cramer!
Mad money
Keep doing what you’ve been doing. It’s great!
"3nm" node etc... do NOT mean the feature size.... the node naming no longer refers to the geometry... smallest feature in N3 is 16nm
Great speed do not need to speak faster since your pace is perfect to let listeners hear your thoughts and digest them as opposed to most people speak to fast to be honest.
That's great to hear, thank you!
Don't worry about talking slow, speed has adjustable controls.
Thanks Geoff, we'll keep at it!
I like your tempo - tell your friend to lay off the caffeine..haha
We'll let them know! They can, after all, choose their own adventure on YT
I like subatomic lithography.
It's really amazing stuff!
Might be the time to look at a potential future Canon spin-off. After all, ASML is a Philips spin-off.
Could be a good move!
@@chipstockinvestor Well, not sure the managers at Canon would have the foresight or could pull it off even if they wanted to.
China already shipping litho machines. Takes about 1 year to calibrate.
Could be a competitive threat on the DUV machines
Some believe so . Cannon's shares are up 27% since the start of the year (Japan Times)
It's an interesting bet, given how small that segment is for Canon.
basically, ASML is monopoly for ArF immersion and more advanced (EUV) technologies...
Just upload the video at 1.25x speed and it’s perfect
We figured y'all could just control the speed from YT
ASML high NA EUV scanner will be $300M
Time will tell, technology advances in many different ways,directions, the difference will be minimal,so lithography can be replaced
Too in the future
I mean people know they can speed up videos right?
Apparently not everyone knows!
i play your video at 1.75x speed and it's good at that speed
Hi Moon, thanks for the comments and for watching the video. Funny, all the points you made, we covered in this video or in others on ASML. Maybe watch at 1.25x and you will hear them!
why EUV won out is ultimately about funding...
multi patterning is NOT new and the motivation of EUV was to reduce the number of mult-patterning. so you kinda have it backward.
Slow talk yes a bit, I think ASML machine can perform complex task less error
Thanks Reggie, and yes ASML has a technological lead, others are still playing catch up
Lol! Enough with the comments about speech cadence! I just want to say Canon is a conglomerate engaged in many businesses. Because of this they're really not a good way to bet on the success of NIL as their bottom line is influenced by the results of many corporate divisions.
This is correct, the industrial segment at Canon is tiny, and NIL just a small part of that to boot. It remains to be seen if NIL is worth investing in at all, via Canon or otherwise.
Pacing is great dont speed up
We'll keep it as is Mateo, thank you!
Put me in the same camp as Casey's Mom: your speed is perfect. I tried speeding you up and really didn't like it. Your content is finely honed and dense with information. It's not like you're reciting the alphabet. Also, your emphasis and inflections make the presentation so much more understandable. Artificially speeding the pace takes away some of that understandability.
Thank you, very kind words! We'll keep everything as is!
free electron lasers are going to nut ASML
evidence? sources?
@@quark31 they're like up to a billion dollars to build so not next week dude, asinomitry guy was talking about the work being done
Going Xerox way. Technology Changed, lazer printer coupled to a scanner destroyed Xerox. Chinese technology destroyed ASML. ASML wants to sell Chinese lithography machines and Chinese tell them we can give you better and cheaper how many do you want? Then cancels all its requirement from them. Cancels Chip orders from US, South Korea, Japan and Europe. Prices of US chips crash along with the stock prices of Manufacturers.
Watching this at 1.25x right now
no
All thanks to the US. 😂
The truth hurts those living in delusion.
ASML the end of road is beginning for you.when Japan - Canon and China can make Lithography machines for , manufacturing 5 nm and below. Chips in few years time. Don't worry about your EUV Lithography machines becoming scrap irons You can alway sell them to US and Europe.😅🤣😂
Jup, and while they are beginning 5nm asml is already shipping out 1nm and below. Good luck.
ASML is for sure a bubble, at least jn thr short term. There's no reason to even think about buying it at this price level.
Delusional to say NIL will compete with EUV.