How Long Will It Take Russia to Rebuild Its Military?
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- Опубликовано: 21 сен 2024
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Useful source of information:
RAND, 'The Future of the Russian Military,' 2019
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Can you make a Video how many equipment vehicles Ukraine 🇺🇦 loss & personal Would Ukraine ever build where the money would come from
I'm a huge fan of CC and you're usually remarkably unbiased. But this is a circumstance in which the immorality is obvious. You hope they can keep doing it bc they can afford it -- I hope they freeze to death this winter. And considering, in just ~6 months, Russia collected +40-Billion USD than charged for Gas, Oil & Coal in all of 2021. Ideally mitigating the "expense" to express their feelings toward their "homicidal neighbors" (the US) trying to move in. First, US ignored Minsk & trained ~80,000 nazis to "liberate" people from an agreement "that Donbass is autonomous," in the name of protecting "Ukrainian Sovereignty" which ceased to exist when the US conducted a coup. (Go head, try and say that's a lie). Orchestrated by people who've been inculcated in hatred & who've killed their own Russian civilians. Maybe the Donbass' people just pretend they're happy to see Russia after 8 years of nazi tattooed terrorist-fascists murdered 15,000 of them, banned their language & erecting statues to WWII's prolific murderers (as US congress admits to funding). If Russia's skepticism that US is a "benign hegemon" seems incredible? Let's see, we're funding ISIS in Syria, NAZIS in Ukraine, and the Taliban in Afghanistan: Utterly ambiguous.
Unlike vlad
Bald and proud. Skipped the built-in ad. Dislike Keeps.
The Soviet Union was an industrial power. However, Russia abandoned a lot of their subsidized industries and there economy is now based on exports of natural resources. As a result, A lot of the high end electronic components for their military equipment is imported because Russia does not have the capacity to produce it themselves.
Russia is still an industrial powerhouse. Don’t fall prey to western propaganda. They can practically shut out EU and trade with China and India and survive on their own for long time. Russian people are innovative.
Here's the thing. They never had at anyone point had the tech to manufacture it themselves. They relied on older less advance tech like vacuum tubes in the Soviet Union. When it fell the Russias realized how far they were behind and there was no money to build the industrial base.
The Soviet Union industry existed because they didn't have outside competitors. Once you open up the economy and everything forigen is either better or cheaper you lose immediately.
Much of their heavy manufacturing was based in Ukraine, where their smarter cousins live.
This is just blatantly false. Do more research my guy!
The thing is, all this info discounts the factor of rampant corruption. How many of those tanks in storage have been stripped of parts? How many of these numbers have been faked to make local officials and make various officers look better?
The number of tanks Russia can actually fix up and deploy is likely MUCH lower, so many will need to be rebuilt from scratch and much of the funds and materials for this will be "requisitioned" and sold off by all levels of the command ladder.
this is why russia keeps surprising western media 😂
There were videos the first few days after the war showing dozens of russian tanks breaking down before even getting out of Belgorod. 10,000 tanks, 3500 usable, 1800 of which are already destroyed.
Speaking of corruption, there was one video I saw where the explosives in the ERA boxes of one tank had been replaced with blocks of rubber. If this sort of thing has happened on a large scale, it would explain one aspect of Russia's failure in Ukraine.
@@nicholasconder4703 I saw another video which pointed out the the rubber was there to hold the explosives in place and that the explosive was removed so it can be used elsewhere.
There is an intercepted conversation between a Russian soldier and a family member where the soldier mentions that their commander had been arrested and was in prison for selling off the units personnel carriers. Apparently this was not unusual.
You talked a lot about the tanks, but the real ugly damage is in Aircraft. Helicopters and especially fighter jets are on a whole other plane of existence when it comes to cost. A single modern fighter jet costs into the 10s of millions of dollars, and are very very complicated to make. Even for a rich and non-sanctioned nation it would be hard to replace those loses and the Ukrainians have decimated the Russian air-force.
Don't forget about ships. Generally they cost ALOT more than aircraft. How much will it cost to replace the Moscva?
He mentioned that he was only covering that, but does mention a total cost towards the end.
@@craigplatel813 that was total ground cost. Just the Moskva would cost 750m today, and that's before the grift in Russian arms sales.
@@scottlemire8522 the Russians don't have the shipyards to replace naval losses.
@@scottlemire8522 yeah. Funnily russia lost the ability to make large ships like the moscva back when Ukraine decided it wanted independance from the USSR.
Teddy Roosevelt: “Speak softly, and carry a big stick.”
Totalitarian Dicktators: "Brag loudly if you can't wield an effective stick."
That is a credible strategy according to Sun Tzu (Or Wu depending on who you are)
*“ Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”*
*― Sun Tzu, The Art of War*
Zelensky?
The largest thermonuclear arsenal on the planet is the biggest stick one can get...
The problem is when you opponent is blinded by the politically correct dictatorship that prevents you to see the obvious!
Extinction of life on the planet likely to follow!
@Schnitzelmesser
📺🐑
Is it possible you’re a victim of propaganda?
@@kissthesky40 His country has proven strong enough to block an invasion by a superpower, so no.
Putin on the other hand is a lying fascist dictator & a windbag.
It'll probably take decades. Russia relied heavily on soviet era equipment that was modernised to keep them useful. Also Russia made a strategic blunder when they took crimea years ago, it turned out that Ukraine's main export at that time was military parts for the russian military and Ukriane stopped the exports at that time.
I think the biggest loss for the russian military is personnel rather than equipment, the training of soldiers, specialists and officers will take years to replenish the losses that have occurred.
Yes, Russia has hypersonics, some good looking jets and some good drones but nothing like the numbers it would need to go forwards with. The russian (soviet) military was based on massive numbers with good equipment, this has been spent on the fields of Ukriane.
Ha, smart point! Most people forget that the core of USSR industry was situated in Belarus and Ukraine.
Human losses is definitely going to be the thing that hits Russia the hardest. Russia has been dealing with manpower shortages even before the USSR collapsed, and it has only gotten worse now with the post-Soviet brain drain and a shrinking population. The units they sent into Ukraine weren't even at full strength, and they had months to prepare and mobilize. If they couldn't even scrape up enough men to fully man their units _before_ the war, imagine how much more difficult it will be for them to do so after losing God knows how many officers and NCOs that are critical for not only maintaining cohesion, but also passing on information to their successors.
@@buttbuttson737 Speaking of officers, there have been 1,027 obituaries in Russian news papers of officers. Probably not 100% accurate, but that is scary that they potentially lost that many officers if not more in such a short period of time.
Nice, thanks
@@buttbuttson737 XX, 9177, 7)7
1
The corruption of the military is extreme. At least 50% of every ruble goes into someone’s pocket
@ thats Ukraine, they even sell ther aid to god knows were
Source: Trust me bro
@@cinnybun739 yep
@@cinnybun739 many of Russia's commanding officers have been arrested and put to jail on corruption charges. Russian soldier themselves have said many of the tanks and armoured vehicles have a lot of problems with some not working entirally.. many of the tanks and armoured vehicles captured by the Ukrainians shows how pathetic the inside of the Russian vehicles are with no signs of servicing and taken care of. So where the money going? :3
One of the good things about China is, that will never happen, China clamps down on corruption you will get locked up for life if your caught stealing. That's what Russia needs to do, they need to take pages from china.
US has suffered no "losses" in Ukraine. They have "expended" weapons for their intended purpose.
Restocking ammo is not the same as replacing lost infantry, tanks, and jet fighters.
it is exactly the same if ammo is not produced any more.
We are essentially using Ukraine to substantially weaken one of our major global competitors; it's an investment of sort.
There were those one or two javelins the Russians captured.
@@eikonise you got it
@@jebise1126 if the ammo isn't produced anymore, it's because the weapon system is obsolete and we're just burning through legacy stockpiles. When I joined the Army after 9/11, we spent years finishing up burning through stockpiles of various obsolete munitions from WW2, Korea, and Vietnam. Once it was gone we fully switched to the new stuff.
Ammo is cheap and easy to build compared to the weapons themselves. And given how many Russian tanks were destroyed, and how many lacked real ERA, the T-62 and BMPs and other light armor can easily be defeated by cheap RPG-7, of which a factory in the US is the largest manufacturer, and they are very cheap and simple to make. As the war shifts, we use less and less of certain weapons. Ukraine is not using a lot of those high tech AT missiles anymore. They are using drones with simple munitions, RPGs, Recoilless rifles, Artillery, etc. HIMARS is one of their most advanced weapons being used to great effect right now. and they are simpler than a Javelin in terms of technology.
Ukraine has already developed one of their own homegrown HIMARS rockets for example. They figured out how to make a variant of their own they could make themselves in Ukraine so they could fire more often. It probably isn't as good or as long ranged as the other variants, but it just has to be good enough, and mass producible.
Aside from the destroyed vehicles and equipment, there will be a lot of worn out equipment when this war is over. To give one example; even while the war continues much of the Russia's artillery needs new linings for their gun barrels because they are already worn out, which makes accurate fire much more difficult to nearly impossible. On top of that, there's the increased danger of accidents, like a detonation inside the gun barrel itself.
So, whenever this war ends there will be a lot equipment and vehicles that will require anything from minor refurbishment to a complete teardown and rebuild with new parts, to be to made fully functional and some equipment so badly worn out that it will simply have to be scrapped. I don't know how to quantify what the cost of that would be, but I'd bet that adding 20 to 30% to the cost of replacing destroyed vehicles and equipment, wouldn't be out of line and might even be a conservative guess.
The tonnage of scrap is huge.
The lack of barrels is just a guess. Remember that artillery is at the core of Soviet warfare doctrine. So its very likely that Russia still has massive amounts of spare barrels
@@meisterproper8304 - My guess, is that means that at the end of this war Russia will have to manufacture a lot of gun barrels to rebuild their war fighting capacity. After this war is over Russian military planner's will want to rebuild their military to be able to fight a future possible war and have the means to sustain that fight. They will need to rebuild inventories of what they deem critical war materials and equipment. That's going to be true for any machines or equipment that need to have replacements or replacement parts kept in quantity.
The exception would be if current Russian manufacturing can keep up with their current battlefield losses. We have heard that Russia is having great difficulty doing this with tanks and armored vehicles but perhaps with artillery they can. There are far less moving parts in say a howitzer than a tank and I was specifically talking about the lining of gun barrels.
It might be both interesting and useful to learn which companies manufacture artillery for the Russian army, how many factories they have, what their current output is and specifically learn if they are operating at full capacity or below it and why. Unfortunately, this isn't information that can be Googled. Well, maybe we could find the names of the companies that manufacture Russian artillery, but that's about it.
One caveat not mentioned here yet, damaged equipment litters Ukrainian land, Russia won’t be given the opportunity to refurbish anything left behind 😲
@@meisterproper8304 The Soviet Union wasn't good at sustainment. They made a lot of front-line equipment - but not a lot of spare parts. And then there the question of whether or not the spare barrels are even usable due to 30 years of neglect. (And the possibility that they also may have been sold for scrap - either officially or unofficially.) The steel used to make them is not cheap - and worth a lot in the salvage market.
It’d be interesting to see an updated August 2023 version of this.
Corruption and other societal norms had and will always prevent Russia from being the military juggernaut the world thought they were.
No, they were but the Russian still think they're the USSR, and their not. Once they figure that out then it could change.
Tell that to Ukrainian troops 😒 🇺🇦
@@MrWolfstar8 " The Military Industrial Complex," I cannot in good conscience disagree with you! Corruption seems synonymous to military manufacturing; maybe in America, the frequent changing of power retards corruption to some extant?
cope
@@hecunotmakingalogisquad5785 russia's gdp is less than Italy's. Cope indeed.
Sure seems like a hell of alot of work that goes into making a video like this. Great video sir 👍
garbage in = garbage out
@@kissthesky40 Russian reactions to actual facts-
@@gio-ko7kf glo. I am a discerning world citizen. This is garbage. Ukraine is an industrial conflict. Note the Russian shelling at a clip of 60,000 + per day … non stop… month after month . NATO / America would be out of munitions in two weeks. This blog is total garbage .. for a fact.
@@danwright1794 You do realize that over half of all military spending in the world is in NATO right?
And russia has not been shelling 60k per day for the past 5 months. Their average is 20k that ukranian general said UP TO 60,000.
And do you still think this is WW2 or something? The amount munitions fired isn’t a sign of how effective a country is… especially when it’s unguided ammo that’s been hitting civilian targets. We’ve gone over 90 years before then, you and russia need to learn how a proper military works
@@gio-ko7kf glo. Thanks for chat . The Ukrainian troops are dying at prodigious rates. These men haven’t seen a Russian soldier . They are deserting in noticeable numbers as . It’s Common sense to do so. They go on internet and testify as to the lack of support ( artillery/ air / et al ). I assume we all would do the same . People want to live. . . Here I want to remark on the diametric nature of ‘reporting ‘. Which is manifest in this blog. Let’s all resort to our share of intuition and common sense . What impresses me is the mature nature of the statesmen in Russia . Conversely … the clownish ineptitude of west / America. ( requiring blatant lies as to death counts and situational reporting.). I am embarrassed as a citizen of the USA. Shameful disregard for human life in pointless sacrifice of precious men . What happened to Nancy promising ‘we will be with you to the final victory!’ Horrible. Evil . Shame
Russia might be able to replace some of its military armament, but Russia will need at least 18 years to replace those killed and wounded. Given Russia’s low birth rate, this could be a problem. A poor economy will also drive down the birth rate.
Conscripts … 🤷♂️
@@ProfessorFickle Not even enough for that.
Yup, demographically even if russia does take Ukraine, it won't have the people to occupy for very long. If you think about Afghanistan, that was 20 years against a determined foe who wasn't being supplied and trained by Western nations... How many years do you think russia could occupy Ukraine for before they just collapse from all of the costs (societal, demographic, economic, financial, materiel, etc)
You know that like 2/3 of the Russian allies troops are mobilized citizens from the two donbass republics (so former ukrainian citizens), many chechens and Wagner mercenaries that are not specifically Russians but any people speaking Russian from the ex USRR countries and maybe from other countries like serbia etc.. Also many Russians live in foreign countries and even if their demographic is bad, they are still country of 146 millions people.
@@Logarithm906 Afghan mujāhidwere supplied by US, in stingers and other weapons. Military aid:
Weapons supplies were made available through numerous countries. Before the Soviet intervention, the insurgents received support from the United States, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Libya and Kuwait, albeit on a limited scale.[177][178] After the intervention, aid was substantially increased. The United States purchased all of Israel's captured Soviet weapons clandestinely, and then funnelled the weapons to the Mujahideen, while Egypt upgraded its army's weapons and sent the older weapons to the militants. Turkey sold their World War II stockpiles to the warlords, and the British and Swiss provided Blowpipe missiles and Oerlikon anti-aircraft guns respectively, after they were found to be poor models for their own forces.[179] China provided the most relevant weapons, likely due to their own experience with guerrilla warfare, and kept meticulous record of all the shipments.[179] The US, Saudi and Chinese aid combined totaled between $6 billion and $12 billion.[180] en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet%E2%80%93Afghan_War
Consider that BMP-3 and BMD-4 are, basically, a russian shell filled with sanctioned French and German components - it's not that easy to get them now. Also, Russian jets use US chips - same story.
I honestly can't believe people fall for the "chip sanctions" narrative. Aside from the very cutting stuff that's not really used in weapons, China can make every kind of chip and microprocessor. Literally noting down to to 7nm lithography is out of the realms of Chinese fabs. Texas Instruments generic microcontroller you used to employ? Put in Chinese one.
Military has not been on the cutting edge of semiconductor technology for a while...the US own Tomahawk missile uses CPUs that are more than two decades old.
I think they are taiwanese chips, not american, although they are kinda "allies" so not a bif difference
EUV may be the latest in chip(production) technology(and banned by the US for use by China and Russia). Still, DUV chip machines, are perfectly capable for military tasks, and the machines used for DUV-chip production, China does have in their inventory.
Russia have their chips and processors Elbrus is one of them. This 28nm processor and chips made for them is enough for military industry. Also Russia or UVZ can produced around 350 new T-90AM tanks every year. And next year they start production of new T-14, contract for 100 of them was sing adn they will be made till 2024. They have lot of plants where they can build military viehicles and this factory are not in relation with civilian one. UVZ is big factory and military adn civilians programs are separate. So they can make civilians vehicle at same time as they made tanks, also Omsktransmash is now under UVZ, they in past made T-80BV/U tanks, so they can easly modernized T-80 tanks...many of tanks used in Ukraine are from reserve, of course they used new T-72B3s but most of them are T-72A/B1/B mod 1989....
Yes Russia lost around 900 tanks in ukraine, but also most of them was repair and send to fight...same is with llot of BMPs, BMDs, BTRs cars, trucks....AA Buk systems, most of them was older one from 80s and from reserve, same was with Tor M1...
@@galicije83 Why do you have US chips in your fighters then? Or use French commander tank sight? Or use outdated German commercial navigators as a part of the "Ratnik" suit? Rockets for S-400 were made on Japanese equipment, which is remotely disabled by Japan now. russia is literally putting chips from Chinese dishwashers into their military equipment nowadays. Elbrus exists for propaganda purposes only and it is outdated - even simple commercial products run on 8 nm lithography nowadays. All that you can do now is rely on the Soviet stockpile of weapons and ammo. Oh, and Iranian drones with a production capacity of 10 per year.
I love seeing your updates, they're always so informative and helpful
Helpful for whom? :)
Those who wish to be informed instead of deformed orcs
@@VajrahahaShunyata those who wish to be misinformed you mean
@@steamkocheaterreport I personally prefer information from third parties rather than from ukraine or russia
This type of hard number breakdown and analysis is EXACTLY what is missing in media
Russia's trading partners and Russian companies are threatened by Western secondary sanctions. So far, no secondary sanctions have been imposed because the EU is still dependent on fossil fuels from Russia. However, this dependence is reducing day by day. Without this dependence, the way is clear for Western secondary sanctions without appearing hypocritical.
I never understood this (after watching people in India talk about it). it isn't hypocritical. The line should not be ' are you buying russian fossil fuels'... the line should be ' are you buying more russian fossil fuels than you were before the war'.. Germany is buying russian energy, but they are buying significantly less than they were before the war and are moving in the direction of 0. India is buying 500% more than they were in February. The rule should be, you get secondary sanctions if you buy more this month than you did last month.
@@PeterSedesse India is not part of NATO. They are free to trade with anyone they want. Unless NATO offers total immunity or a defense pact for India to protect from Chinese or Pakistani attacks, India won’t tow the line of west. It has a lot to lose and nothing to gain by joining sanctions.
@@PeterSedesse nah rest of world does not care or agree
@@PeterSedesse I would live to see west try and go after india and china simultaneously
@@Myanmartiger921 Is that a joke? India has call centers, nothing else of significance to the USA. China is currently blacking out entire cities because they can't produce electricity and are shutting down other cities because of Covid. Taiwan is much more important than China, and India is insignificant to the US economy. And that doesn't even account for the fact that India and China are likely to have a conflict soon. India just threw out 7 major chinese countries for tax evasion, China invaded indian land last year, China has a spy ship currently sitting in Sri Lanka spying on India. I mean, the best thing the USA could do is let two poor underdeveloped and overpopulated countries depopulate each other without doing anything.
If something is going to take 5 years in the USA, you can bet in Russia it is gonna take at least 3x the time
That’s your opinion… not facts
*russia laughs in hypersonics*
@@war8036 Russians are laughable losers, as the whole world now knows. Saying it will take Russia 3 times longer is being generous.
@@war8036 Exactly! It would be closer to 10x...
@ cope!
I doubt they could maintain past rates of tank upgrades, they likely started with the most servicable old tanks, so their reserves waiting to be upgrades might have a high scrap rate and a more complex refit requirement, per tank. Ontop of supply chain and economic issues, its unlikely
Send in the T55's...
The T 62's are almost gone 😭
Ukraine has captured Russian tanks that have rubber pads in place of reactive armor.
ruclips.net/video/i5_8lgIrNBY/видео.html
@@VajrahahaShunyata пришлём , не переживай
I hear that something like 900k Russians have fled to Europe alone. Most of them likely to be the younger and smarter of Russia's citizens. Don't forget the negative economic fallout that will have later on.
It’s a drop in the bucket.
Russian demographic decline has been a thing for 30+ years.
@@realnapster1522 It's far more than Russia can afford to lose, especially as those leaving are the young, most educated & economically important ones.
@@GARDENER42 Which is why Putin now is reviving the Stalin policy of the "Mother Heroine" award to every woman that has 10 kids.
@@realnapster1522 No, it really isn't. Russia has too few young people as it is. Losing a million is terrible.
It's funny how "Russia's new vehicles will come and destroy everyone." Was a very common thing to hear just a few months ago.
Suddenly no one's talking about those anymore. :'D Wonder why.
Because their old stuff is whooping Ukraines ass so far. 3:1disadvantage in manpower and they hold 20% of ukraine
Western far left and far right were the ones always being very pro russian,now they are being joked around.
no one's buying them anymore either.
Partly due to seeing how inadequate they are in a real fight. Partly because they see that the orders will never be completed/delivered by Russia any time soon.
I just wondered about that yesterday... what ever happened to the ' terminator' tanks.. I remember like 3 months ago Russia announced they were sending them to Ukraine. I honestly think it is like their hypsersonic missiles.. they built just a few of them as a PR / parade thing, but there aren't enough of them to actually affect a battlefield.
105 years of bullshit propaganda
The cold war ended when Russia could no longer economically sustain its military (they went broke). Since then, both the US and Russia substantially downsized their forces. However, the US economy is arguably stronger in every way today than it was at the end of the cold war. Russia on the other hand continues to spiral down the drain towards economic ruin notwithstanding the break the bankruptcy of collapsing their government gave them. The US certainly could (not saying they would, just that they could) write the cheque to restore their forces to 1989 levels. Russia absolutely can not afford to even make up for the losses of this current debacle. Further it seems unlikely that they will find foreign assistance any time soon. My personal opinion is their loss in Ukraine is in effect a permanent reduction in the size of Russian forces. (In a hundred years, who knows. But for the next 50 I don't see them rising again).
Good points. The only thing l would add is the likely length of the war in Ukraine. Most people seem to think it will go on a few years but Ukraine will not stop until Russia is off their land but they don’t have the means to launch a major offensive. So we could be looking at a very long war and that will bleed Russia dry
what loss this has not been a major war russia has lost less than 300 tanks when they have 24000 it no big deal
@@frankrenda2519 I realize there are a variety of perspectives and fog of War. Nonetheless it is generally accepted that Russia has lost approximately 1900 tanks. And that this loss represents about a third of their available practical tank forces.
Russia's vintage World War II tanks are about as effective in the modern Battlefield as a man with a stick. So yes Russia does have thousands of Museum pieces but in terms of real modern forces they only have about 2,800 tanks.
Yes yes I know your mileage may vary. But consider that if Russia was as strong as they say then this war should have been over in 3 days. It's been 6 months.
mankind will be over in less than 500 years
@@phred196 you have no idea less than 300 tanks have been destroyed and every tank site on the net has numbers over 15000 also you have no expertise in military affairs to say russia should have took ukraine in 3 days if you go by your thinking it makes the usa the uk nato the worst performing militaries in history being humiliated for 20 years in afganistan.
I’ve heard that Russian tank production has already come to a stop due to parts shortages.
Evidence?
Not a stop but no doubt greatly slowed
I have now heard that someone heard russian tank production has already come to a stop due to parts shortages.
@@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311 No evidence, just a video I can’t vet. But it does make sense.
i've heard that russians used all missiles months ago and are now using catapults
Forgot to mention Ships and Boats, the Moskva sinking was an expensive loss.
because this channel is a mouth piece of russia and china lol
Need more funding for anti-smoking ads
Not even just the loss, the fact that it was using Russia's most advanced anti-missile defense system and was destroyed by two neptune missiles, which are fairly primitive and produced by Ukraine.
Moskva was an old Soviet fossil they seriously debated to retire before the war. Leaked reports indicate that the ship was barely in fighting condition 14 days before the war and with its defensive systems in worse conditions.
@@HeliosLegion same ship they had world leaders go on to sign agreements? Crazy to think they would have such prestigious moments on a row boat from your description...
This video seems to completely ignore the fact that producing anything more complex than an AK-74 requires Western-made components, like optics, electronics, proper grade steel for guns (which Russia itself bought from Ukraine of all places), etc. Basically before they can even think to start building up their army, they first have to create whole new local hi-tech industries. According to Estonian intelligence, Russia is not able to build new tanks at the moment, for reasons listed above. The same goes for helicopters, airplanes and long-range guided missiles.
can't they buy off of china?
China.
@@zeppkfw
chinas tech industry is mostly supported by foreign investors.
the ccp has already toned down their exports to russia out of fear of secondary sanctions and investors leaving which would ruin the chinese economy.
also their domestic semi conductor production is still around 20 years behind the rest of the world which would force them to downgrade their entire electronics production in case of sanctions.
in short russia cant rely on china to bail them out of this.
It is actually discussed, see 9:20 onwards. They say it is a problem and probably only really fixed by involving a supply chain using chinese component.
Yeah famous Estonian secret service giving accurate Intel lol
Whenever a covert cabal video gets uploaded, it is common courtesy to stop anything you doing and watch it
And don't forget to snipe the 'Like' button.
Defense companies need export sales to drive down their per unit cost. Even before the war Russia was seeing cancellations of export sales of new advanced systems. Since the war began, additional cancellations have occurred. Presumably because of poor performance as well as sanctions limiting the ability of Russia to obtain parts. If experts go into the toilet, that will make it more difficult for Russia to build all these replacement systems.
I think the reason for why less people buy from russia is because of economic reasons and not because of poor Performance since a lot of good Western sources like the Bundesheer and the USA said that in many scenarios where russia failed and also in many where they failed the hardest was due to planing errors and failed logistics.
They’re still the second largest weapon exporter in the world lol
@mrmacias42 not anymore and will never be ever again!
Countries have already canceled some large orders from russia after seeing how easily it is destroyed...
And russia has delayed shipments because they need it now...
Its not good for russian arms dealers at the moment
If you are talking about tanks and armored vehicles, it is something that should have been known and likely known about pre-war. The exploding T-72s is something that was seen during the Gulf War and even as recently as the war in Syria. While less than ideal, if your country isn’t very wealthy, your alternatives are buying an insufficient number of Leopard 2s or Abrams tanks(that will still get their shit kicked in if used improperly, but is a bit more survivable), or buying obsolete tanks like T-55s or M60s that can’t stop RPGs made in 60s to it’s frontal armor. Not every war is going to be Ukraine where your enemies are going to be running around with Javelins and NLAWs, a T-72 with ERA is going to be difficult to kill with an RPG-7 and a basic HEAT warhead that is common in the Middle East. As for the more APCs and IFVs, yes they are not super well armored but it will stop a dude with an AK or PK from turning your vehicle into Swiss cheese. The BMP-2 can stop 23mm AP rounds to the front and the sides will protect against 12.7mm FMJ. Once again, this is the best many countries can afford.
Secondly, the Ruble is not a traded currency. It can be manipulated to look however they want
Is it fair to say that the war in Ukraine has shown that the Russian military really isn't something to fear?
@Украинская Галактическая Империя! Like Russia did, don't forget that part
@Украинская Галактическая Империя! US army won quickly in Afghanistan, they left for political not militaristic reasons.
The truth is that *no* military is something to fear. It's all bluster and propaganda. Ultimately farmers have defeated every "super power".
@@tadas9216 cope
The thing is: Russia doesn't actually have an army, just a bunch of bozo's with guns.
Boy, what a monumental task it's going to be to build all that back up. Russian military planners are going to need all the Keeps they can get.
Russian military has planners?
Yes
They plan to sell the tires n wires off everything to a short hungry guy named Kim...
It is, how you say....
Tradition, da?
I feel that outside of their nuclear arsenal and natural resource leverage, Russia is likely gonna be become irrelevant as an international power. Their navy’s practically non existent (incapable of force projection), and their rampant corruption at all levels, from top generals to the regular grunt, the money is almost certain to be wasted on individual gains instead of rebuilding their military capabilities
They’re done for
@@chrisdickens4862 *surprised pikachu face
Great video! Very informative. Thank you.
I would say that instead of rebuilding their army the should reform it very thoroughly first. If we're talking for 1:1 rebuild - then decades.
Don't give them any ideas - its all working out fine.
@@Boric78 We are purely objective, if the Russians can't think for themselves they deserve to be on the losing side.
@@Boric78 You cannot reform it without getting rid of corruption, as this will not happen it really doesn't matter how much they will try, the end result will be the same.
So reform it to be even more corrupt, right?
@@Boric78 I agree. However if Putin goes away and Russia finally has chance at Democracy I hope they will do it.
Also it's not like Russians don't know it. I'm not giving them information that could help them win war in Ukraine.
I find it very interesting to speculate about russia's stock of precision rockets / cruise missiles.
It is very well visible that the number of cruise missile attacks is drastically decreasing. Russia is running out of stock. I've heard of a production capacity of 6 Kalibr per month (in peace time - no sanctions).
Why is it decreasing?
I still see videos of a dozen or so long range strikes carried out by Russia per day. That’s been pretty constant for the last several months.
@@QualityPen I think there is a misunderstanding here- Russia has great amounts of unguided ballistic missiles, also there were several reports of them using anti-air missiles in the same way. But precision missiles are expensive and require parts that are not being made in Russia, and since they are fairly new weapons they can't just reach back to old Soviet munitions storage for replacements. Therefore it is more realistic that they have a more limited amount of them, and that they will be using more and more of those, at least for the general bombardment/ terror attacks.
they run out of missiles 1 year ago already...
@@FeherMate They may be called precision missiles but their accuracy is about 30%. In one case a precision missile hit a beach miles from its target.
@@QualityPen I haven't.
The number of precision strikes is at best 20% of the number three months ago.
What we're seeing is increased use of repurposed S300 missiles in the ground role & despite the S300 having that capability, using it in that manner suggests a dearth of alternatives.
We also have to account for the wear and tear on the vehicles currently being used in the war and incurring no combat damage but nevertheless being exposed to intensive use coupled with poor maintenance. Now that the front is static it is probably less, but still significant. These vehicles would need to be rejuvenated by the same factories supposed to be bringing stored tanks to life - and this may further slow the process down. There is also the possibility of some stored tanks being cannibalized right now to meet the spare parts needs of the front.
As the Taliban taught us (at length), your fighters' will to win is FAR more important than how well they are are equipped.
yep. the good old question about motivation! ukrainians fighting for their land and family while the common russian soldier had zero interrest in this war.
Hope this war ends asap.
So that there will be less casualties. Is that reason reasonable enough??
Gl. Russia knows that thanks to environmental scare mongering and poor solutions to the legitimate environmental issues Europe has nothing.
Holland Dutch farmers can't get what they need to farm because environmentalism, and they're far less productive than normal. Given they produce Europe's food, and were heading into winter without them having been able to work much...
If we don't get trade and natural gas back up then Putin will laugh as Europe's idiot policies eat them alive from the inside.
@@soumyaranjan8886 No; that will leave Russia sitting on thousands of square miles of sovereign Ukrainian land and give Putin a victory.
@@Wargunsfan He didn't say he wants Russia to win. Just that it's over soon. With the rate of Russian supply loss, Ukraine may be pleasantly surprised how fast Russia can be pushed back soon. Like during Desert Storm when US troops crossed the border expecting a fight only to find a bunch of starved deserters and fleeing officers. Supply and morale collapse can happen rapidly and unexpectedly. Ukraine's strategy is smart. Wait and watch for the day when Russia's supply is exhausted.
@@slartybarfastb3648 The definition of "soon" in this context is when every last Russian soldier is out of Ukraine. That is not realistically going to be soon. "Soon" sounds like the war being frozen in place. That is a victory for Putin.
Putin is that Hoi4 player that keeps attacking even when it’s troops don’t have equipment and can’t advance
I'm sure they could build a bunch of T-34s - no complicated microchips in those. :)
Man, I really love your channel. Keep doing it!
In case anyone’s interested…
2,000,000,000,000.00 Russian Rubles.
= 42,858,588,495.80 Canadian Dollars.
or
= 33,146,459,645.18 US Dollars.
Demographically Russia is dead and without that young workbase to contribute tax revenue, this is the last straw for Russia. That is why Georgia fell and Crimea, now Ukraine, they have to sure up their approaches so they can lock in a for slowly. Rather than be open and die quickly.
Avoid equating Russia and Soviet Union. Russia has a population of 144 million. Soviet Union was populated by around 299 million people. The territory might look big, but Russia has half the people the Soviet Union did. Equating the two allows Russians to prop up the Russian exceptionalism and get credit where it is often undue.
It also had countries like East Germany and other imoportant countries under its yoke
@@xModerax Yes, but now Russia has China in the alliance instead of East Germany, plus almost all of Asia and Africa. The US and the EU are fenced off from the world with an iron fence. Not Russia.
As long as graft and corruption is endemic in Russia's military establishment, rebuilding will only line the pockets of the oligarchs.
It was supposed to be modernized before the war..
The rate at which Putin can rebuild his forces will depend on several main factors which are developing now and will be determined in the coming years. Will the price of oil rise or fall? Will Europe turn to other sources for energy? Will sanctions on the Russian economy be continued? Will the Russian populace be willing to tolerate shortages of Western goods and a lowered standard of living or will Putin be forced to spend more on the civilian sector and less on the military? I think all things considered, including the eventual length of the war, that it may be ten years before the Russian military approaches its former numbers. Thankfully Putin will probably be dead by then.
Have you looked into this at all? A quick glance at russian demography shows a shrinking Russian military is all but inevitable, that's before the war. Putin himself has cited this as a now or never call to arms.
@@williambrasky3891 thats true. It has been shrinking even bevore. Russia is also unable to keep all those Soviet tanks up. It's just was to expensive
The price of energy will fall. It's coming down now even. Russia is about to completely lose the European energy monopoly it enjoyed for so long. Europe paid a much higher price for Russian gas than China. In fact we (US)are shipping more LNG to Europe than what is coming through the Russian pipeline. I seriously doubt that 10 years will be enough to replenish what Putin has lost in Ukraine. If he can EVER replenish it. As you said, Putin will never know how it turned out because he'll be dead by then.
Europe was heavily dependent on Russian energy supplies, however, 45% of the Russian budget was financed largely by those exports. Europe has now banned all coal imports from Russia, 90% of all oil imports by the end of 2022, most natural gas this year with a few exceptions in small eastern European countries. The U.S. now supplies more natgas to Europe than Russia does. These changes will be long-term. Once supply lines are changed there will be no going back. It will be over for Russian energy exports to Europe.
Another 40% of the Russian economy was based on imports. Most of that was from the west and most of that has now ended under sanctions. So, there will be two giant holes in the Russian economy. I doubt there will be any willingness in the west to end those sanctions for many years.
For those who argue that China and India will replace Europe in financing Russia, there is the problem of geography. Building pipelines to China will take a decade. India is half a world away by tanker.
Russia is burning through reserves of cash right now and it has 18 months of reserves at best. With oil prices falling and oil shipped to China and India sold for about $30/barrel below international rates, Russia with high extraction costs will not find production profitable below about $80/barrel. Long story short, Russia will be squeezed into a serious default. It is already in a technical default on debt but in the next year that will be worse. At that point, the economy will really crater.
So, the 'rebuilding' of expensive weapons, in an environment where tech components are not available? That will be a problem. It is fairly obvious that the Russian economy will be quickly returning to the disaster of the 1990's. In the early 2000's western capital enriched Russia. I don't see that happening again. Europe has seen the danger of Russian aggession and western companies are not going to forget the multi-billion $ losses that they experienced this year. Putin has screwed the economic future of Russia for at least a generation. The western world can survive without the 1.6% of world GDP that Russia represented before sanctions. They are a blip on the world economy.
Does his 13,000 MIC employees not do their job ? I see plenty of ammo
Dude there is HUGE demand for railroad carts. It's ever growing.
In regards to budget transparency:
The US is like a guy at the beach flexing his muscles.
Russia is like a guy in a back alley, in a dark cloak, which covers his dad bod.
Perfect.
Putin hasn't released a pic of himself shirtless atop a horse crossing a stream in nearly a decade.
Coincidence?
Our defense spending is kinda inflated though. Our defense contracting companies pay corporate taxes, which goes right back to the US gov't. And they employee hundreds of thousands of people who all pay income taxes that go back to the US gov't. Compare that to like Saudi Arabia who buys our jets and instantly loses 100% of that money.
Gears, pulleys, seals, bearings, belts; it's hard enough to get all the stuff you need to build a tank in the US let alone annexed Russia. I quoted a customer a 32 week lead time for a part today. Now try and build something with 900 parts
Such an excellent research, analysis, and report. Great video as well.
“ For want of a nail the shoe was lost For want of a shoe a horse was lost”
I was doing a little reading on Russian sanctions and the Ukraine war.... And there was a lot of whining in the West about the effects of oil and gas sanctions, and how economic sanctions were not really effecting Russia. And I took it for truth, until a friend in the railroad industry pointed out that Russia ships most freight by railroad. And the Russian rail industry is running out of bearings, with 100s of railway cars laid up unserviceable, awaiting new bearings...which led me down an industrial rabbit hole....
Do you know how many mechanical items require bearings? Hint: pretty much anything that moves. (Cars, trucks, busses, tanks, tractors, jet engines, turbines, convenors, etc...) And they need to be replaced regularly, especially if they move fast or bear heavy weights . And Russia imports about half of theirs.....or produced them with joint venture partners that have left....with their specialized knowledge and skills. And used imported inputs no longer available due to sanctions. During WWII, bearings were so important that whole bombing campaigns were devoted to destroying the German bearing industry (the Schweinfurt raids) Can Russia rebuild its military without importing bearings?
www.bearing-news.com/bearing-industry-update-on-ukraine-russia-conflict-part-2-may-2022/
Yeah and this is just one industry where russia is fucked thanks to western sancions, they have managed to slow down the economic meltdown which is impresive we do have to give them that, but they only managed that ti slow it down the entire country is falling apart at the seams
This is so sad for me to watch. I have Russian roots. This country instead of turning into something great, and attracting other countries into their sphere of influence turned rampage and just destroyed itself. The most stupid scenario of all that could happen.
So much land, people, resources, and potential. And to squander all of it for personal goals of one man.
This is truly insanity and a crime against whole humanity.
I agree. Love & understanding from one human to another, Peace.
First, Russia has to get rid of all the "old men" of the Soviet era. Putin is Russian but he's also former Soviet KGB. In his paranoia, he imagines an enemy waiting around ever corner. He looks to the west for his enemy while his REAL enemy is to the south. Don't think for one minute China hasn't noticed Russia's military weakness in Ukraine. China's expanding population needs space and natural resources. Russia has space and natural resources and Russia is within walking distance of China. China could walk an army of 150 million men into Russia and Russia would be powerless to stop them without using nukes on Russian soil. I read once, that at China's rate of population growth, you could start marching Chinese people into the ocean 2 abreast and the line would never end. That's how huge their population is. 150 million men would be nothing for China.
I had listened to Garry Paskarov, former Russian world champion chess player, talking about the state of affairs in Russia. If Russia would elect him, he would be a great president. He loves Russia and it's people and he loves peace and partnership and cooperation. Other countries would embrace Russia and open trade routes and I could even see the US and Russia practicing war training together. If he were president, this invasion would not have happened. As long as these old men of the Soviet era are running the country Russia will never break out of this quagmire.
Most Slavic people's do this to themselves. Ukrainians were living on 350 euro per month average before the war. Slavs are like the black people of Europe or something, the only ones who can't get it together.
Yes, so sad, Russia could have been so much more integrated in the world If they just had let go of their empire past
putin still doesn't realise that it is pointless having the flashest house in the crappiest neighbourhood.
Depends on how many washing machines are left.
As someone associated with the construction industry, IF there is sufficient motivation, money or fear, things can happen extremely fast. Think months. However, in peace time, where long jobs mean big profits, things take longer.
Perfect example:
Empire State Building vs OneWorld Trade Center.
100 years ago 13 months to build
Today, 13 YEARS!
Uhm . . . The Original WTC took 13 years. The OWTC took 8 years for construction. The long approval times also made sense. The WTC towers were unusual architecturally at the time. And the OWTC was a massive prestige project that people wanted to be as 'perfect' as possible.
@@Bustermachine
So was the Empire State when it was built.
The whole world was and somehow is amazed by the T-14 Armata... Germany laughs in KF51 Panther^^
The T14 is vastly superior lol KF51 is just a leopard with a better turret lol
@@mrmacias4217 Hah ye right, what exactly can you prove that T14 actually even works? xD
Plus I know this for sure. T14 wont be ever mass produced while KF51 will be :D
Russia's military "might" is nothing but propaganda and laughing stock of the entire world :D
@@mrmacias4217 the fact you make that statement about two tanks that no one knows anything about at all is laughable.
@@mrmacias4217 Well...your opinion in all honour, let's see how the new 130mm DM26 deals with the T-14^^
It's nice to see people going back to work and building something that's useful.
I just ate a cheese toastie and it was delicious.
good for you 😁
I'm jealous. Why didn't you bring enough for everyone? I'm stuck with nothing but this damned potato for the next two years.
🍞🧀
@@slartybarfastb3648 if you can sling me one of those pan galactic gargle blasters,il make fresh round😊☺️
@@officialbrooke-eden5198 Defintely! I swore I'd lay off those for awhile but, why not?
On it's way! Enjoy 🥵🥶😱😭🥴
The level of curruption seems to have been mostly ignored. For example, in 'upgrading' tanks the battle field experience has shown that reactive armour contains no explosives, but rubber. If 300 tanks were 'upgraded' in a single year, what does that actually mean when it is russia that is being disussed, the most corrupt army in history? What percentage of the military budget actually goes to the military, considering that all of their spend is a state secret.
corruption is huge problem but famous reactive armour with no explosives video doesn't make sense coz not just explosives but everything else seemed to point out that Ukraine already stripped it out ( even headlights were gone ) and video appeared a lot later after it was first reported to fall in hands of Ukraine.
That "rubber instead of ERA due to corruption" has been proved to be a fake by the way.
Western Rome was probably most corrupt, but Russian Federation might be 2nd place.
Western Rome near the end had whole legions that only existed on paper, since all the gold and silver allocated for the formations was embezzled.
The reason the explosives weren't there is the same as why there was/is no ammunition for the tank smoke grenade launchers. That stuff is put into storage in ammunition bunkers in peacetime - and when the tanks were shipped to the staging areas - it was left behind.
The rubber is a part of the reactive armour, but the explosives have been taken out and reused by ukraine in those videos.
One of the best channels out there. Good work.
Remember when Russia was a superpower? Before Putin turned the Russian military into a laughingstock? Being behind Italy and Canada in military power is pretty embarrassing.
Russia was never a super power.
Lmao Canada and Italy are going send woke ass liberals to fight lol what are you even talking about bro . Nato is nothing without the United States. Russia can still go toe to Teo with anybody in Europe. You do know ukraines army was the second largest in Europe before the war started . The Ukrainen army wasn't no push over like the west likes to portray them . They had 8 years of preparation to get ready for war .
Not sure they were ever a "superpower", although they said they were once or twice. Probably shouldn't have based their ideas on 1932 standards.
That’s ridiculous
They were never a Super Power, just a regional power. Russian propaganda fooled fools into thinking otherwise
They used to upgrade their equipment and likely upgraded their best equipment, not their oldest. There is no good equipment left to upgrade. It is all either captured, destroyed, too rotten or used up.
Another factor in the apparent strength of the Rubel is also that their central bank is actively propping it up by selling of currency reserves. In January, Russia had roughly 640B$ in various currencies. Of those around 300B$ was sitting in offshore accounts with other central banks and has since been frozen. Another 120B$ is in Gold, mainly at NY Fed and Fort Knox (as far as I know). Of the remaining 220B$, 70B$ had been sold of to prop the Rubel by end of June. That bleeding has reduced somewhat with Europe effectively paying for gas in Rubels, but it has in no way stopped. Within roughly 6 months, this practice will stop because they simply run out of available reserves.
@@JK-oq9cl then why are they currency reserves melting away? They did both to get enough Rubel to pay for the war. War is expensive and they are running a huge deficit.
@@JK-oq9cl look it up. Russian currency reserves. 300B$ frozen, another 120B$ out of country, the rest dropped by 70B$ to roughly 150B$ by June.
@@JK-oq9cl my sources? FT, Reuters, WaPo, take your pick. I'd like to know where you got the info from. I'm not discounting what you say, it just seems improbable, as Russia is suing to regain access to those 300B$ and they explicitly state that amount.
Interesting. They have also lost a rotary and fixed wing aircraft and fired thousands of missliles. If they want to replace everything the total cost will probably be a lot.
@@hs342 At least over 100 helicopters and aircraft. Several hundred drones. Nobody knows how many missiles, but lots.
The thing few people understand about Russia is that it spends (and has always spent) a disproportionately large share of its budget on the military. Russia spends very little on healthcare, education, and pensions. This country has existed for hundreds of years as a military state and there are rational reasons for this: Russia fought against the world superpowers of its time, such as Sweden, France, Japan, Germany.
Equipment wise? They may be able to recover and even focus on modernization of their equipment; But personelle wise ? They’ll never be able to replace what they lost. All those guys with specialized equipment killed, skilled tank gunners- commanders, Officers- AA operators that have been lost? Will take years to retrain and replace thankfully
It’s not the stuff, it’s the people. Their population isn’t being replaced.
Well, I hope they separate the munitions in their tanks from the crew compartment. That’s a terrible design.
it made sense at the time it was built I suppose.
I hope they leave the design exactly as it is. Kind of like how helpful it was that the Japanese refused to install self-sealing fuel tanks on their planes or parachutes for pilots.
It's nice knowing an adversary has built-in self destruct features installed.
The T-14 Armata has a separate munitions compartment. The crew is protected in a dedicated shell.
@@milotura6828 Yes, this. Russia never cared about casualties because they've, historically, had a limitless supply of warm bodies. Things have changed in that regard.
@@bgeery
🤣
If they’re building it to the same standard as the one they had, about a week.
If they want something efficient, effective and professional it’ll take about 8 years starting from when they’ve eliminated the crippling corruption.
A fish rots from the head down and the stench coming out of Russia is there for all to smell.
There is a human element to this. They've lost a lot of crews in those vehicles. How long does it take to turn a civvy into a trained tanker?
Quite a long time, since training is mediocre (in my own opinion at least,) and also the living conditions of the russian military, which is just bonkers bad.
That's not taking into account that they deployed some of their reserve tanks already, they had fucking T60s on the battlefield in front line roles.
Russia should now invest in their domestic factories in producing the necessary components and producing components for also civil use . They have been importing the needed components . They also need to standardize their military to ease the logistics and training and free up manpower
They can't
Or they would.
The smart people left.
They went to lands where you get rewarded for the work you do.
Instead of the people you know.
Socialism and fascism always make a culture race to the bottom of excellence.
Why would you work hard if some fat drunk general takes the crecit and you stay poor?
Do you think Russia can produce their own microchips?
They can start investing and get help from China
@@MDSR17455 china does not have this knowledge either, and cannot help.
They rely on foreign machines, like the ones built by ASML, a Dutch company, or Zeiss, for chip manufacturing.
@@MDSR17455 They could but it would take YEARS to get any significant numbers and nothing compared to how they were pre-sanctions, Taiwan produces over 90% of the worlds advanced micro-processors and semi conductors, that is also assuming Russia is willing to swallow it's pride and become militarily beholden to the whims of China since all it would take is one button press and then no more advanced equipment for Russia.
Best video I have seen. Thanks
so with latest losses and calling it a split between oyrsk and ukraine claims... we're looking at over 2k tanks etc... so probably 20 years.
Russian military strategy has traditionally been quantity over quality, while western strategy has been the opposite.
Back in WW2 this worked to Russias advantage as they were able to pump out tanks and armaments by a factor of 10 compared to the Axis who put their money in wunder weapons. (Multiple other factors in play too, but you get the point).
However now technology has advanced enough and military equipment has progressed to point where this strategy is no longer viable, also declining population in Russia means that even if they could pump out all those weapons, they may not have people to use them all. It’s this reason why western armies are focused on force multipliers and soldier survival.
the things like the T-34 were not such bad tanks to begin with though. I think a bigger lesson when looking at WW2 is how important it is to be able to keep producing weapons during war time. Germany failed to sustain their production rates, even though they had some of the best weapons in regards of individual tanks, rifles and warplanes.
Yes and no. In the event of war between NATO and the Warsaw Pact, the West would've also heavily employed the use of air assets for precision fire support, in contrast with the Soviets who favored large amounts of artillery in a less accurate, but denser fire support role (something the Russians continued to do). Basically, if out quality wasn't enough, we blew it up from the air. This was why the Soviet air force was developed to mainly play the role of preventing NATO's aircraft from being brought to bear. That is actually one of the reasons the Russian air force wasn't utilized like how the Coalition air power was during the Gulf War; ground attack was not a prioritized role for the Soviets since that was the job of the artillery. And the reason that the Russians still haven't gained air supremacy in Ukraine is because the Soviet air force was meant to merely establish control over the areas occupied by its own forces with the aid of air defense systems, merely trying to deny a theoretical NATO enemy from gaining air superiority rather than wrest control of the skies.
Not to mention they no longer have a population advantage there are around 140-150 mil people in Russia a large amount until you look at a now unified Europe with over 700 mil, and the Us with over 300 mil on it's own it can't afford to use Soviet tactics anymore it wont have the population for it if it comes to war with another major power they will run out of people LONG before anyone else does.
wunder weapons never worked with intended efficiency. Basically it was copium when Germany realised they can't sustain the losses.
Well, there’s a bit of a misnomer to the whole “quality over quantity.”
The Russians absolutely believed that if they had a lot of “okay” equipment they’d be fine.
The US decided, “you know what, let’s make a lot of really kinda good stuff.”
For example, the Sherman, over 50,000 were built, and the overall design continued to be used until the late 1960’s. Undoubtedly it was a hell of a tank.
The F-4 Phantom, over 5,000 were built, and it’s one of the best fighter aircraft ever made and is still in service all around the world.
The Fletcher class Destroyer was a hell of a destroyer for its time, almost 200 were built, which is a hell of a lot of ships to build in two years.
Currently there are a little over 5,000 Abrams tanks serving in the US military, arguably the best tank to have ever driven, and property the longest serving tank in human history.
War, is expensive.
Maintaining Peace is more economically viable.
Its important to factor in the amount of destroyed tanks that can be repaired and returned to service. In Iraq we were able to repair and return to service about 70% of the tanks that we destroyed during our invasion and those were the backbone of the Iraq defense force.
Generally if a tank burns down - you can't repair it. And Russian tank losses have tended to not leave much left of the tank. Also - everybody's doctrine is that a tank isn't dead until it's on fire. So those knocked out Russian tanks are probably unrepairable.
@@colincampbell767 Ive seen some pretty crispy tanks that went from just a hull with no guts to working condition... the bottleneck was actually hulls that werent compromised at the facility on my base.
@@joehelland1635 I was under the impression that severely damaged M1s were sent back to the factory to be rebuilt. And how did you deal with the issue of the heat destroying the temper of the steel?
@@colincampbell767 not m1's therese were all t-whatevers that the iraqi army had under Sadaam Huesein.
Bimbos, sprawling estates, and mega yachts, qualifies as Russian defense spending.
4th Yacht Squadron (Monaco) ready for deployment in the Bahamas.
@@threethrushes and the 150th billionaire brigade is ready to deploy to London
First make dokktor give pill for bad syphilis dick...
Then we party, da?
bimbo bimbo bo bop bo nana fana fo fop me mi mo mop -- BOP
@@kidkique Blonde hair blue eyed wivestock.
Thank you, CC.
A friend of mine once told me that any weapon built will eventually be used.
They are not going to replace it, or go new tank for old tank, or new plane for old plane. The Soviet Era stuff will be sold, scrapped, or given to Abkhazia or something.
They are taking notes as well.
It will take 5 years or more for Russia to replace its losses but Russia is probably not going in another major conflict like this in the next decade so time probably isn't a problem
5 if they weren't under major sanctions. They can't even fix their commercial jets
You have to add in the cost of the human, a soldier that dies won't come home to work in the civilian sector, providing income, having children, babysitting grandchildren, etc. The cost to raise that soldier to the age of 18-30 costs hundreds of thousands of dollars to begin with, including one on one training/apprenticeship/teaching that an instructor/teacher/manager was paid to provide for that human. If that human dies, then that time invested is lost/wasted as the dead human won't be able to pass on that knowledge at a reduced cost. This is also compounded with the fact that a lot of intelligent humans have already left the country, taking their gains and wealth along with them, this leaves Russia with only those who are too brainwashed/incompatible to think outside the box to bring new ideas to the table, and those too poor to afford to move to another country, alongside other groups who can't/won't migrate. Overall Russia is set to become another China, ironically xenophobic and reliant on copycatting western technology while puffing out their chests to make themselves look bigger than they actually are.
Then there's the cost of looking after those receiving life changing wounds of a kind which mean they can no longer work.
40,000 dead Russians is $1bn a year, every year.
40,000 badly injured is ten times that.
Of course to fascists like Putin, that's of no consequence, as they've already stolen $billions.
China can actually produce stuff
More like a paranoid totalitarian nuclear state. Russia's role in the history of the next decade is going to be terrifying. Ukraine is just the beginning.
Someone has been watching Perun
Copying other peoples technology is the best way to modernize. Let the other country pay for the R&D and then copy and sell it cheaper to bankrupt the other country. China is set to become the next global leader as America declines so you are saying that Russian will overtake the US at some point..
Russia isn't worried because it has thousands of African social media users ready to defend the country and its glorious leader.
It will take them decades to build back. If ever. Russia is about to lose the European energy monopoly it had for so long. European countries paid a much higher price for Russian gas than China, and India. When Russia loses that much revenue plus the prices for oil and gas will drop eventually causing Russia to lose even more revenue. Not only that but Putin has gained another 1300km of NATO border. NATO will become much more unified and hostile towards Russia and defenses will be bolstered as more NATO troops will be stationed in bordering countries in case Putin gets the idea that he wants to invade yet another country such as Poland or the Baltic States. Putin made a huge mistake invading Ukraine.
Well said.
And do you know why the invasion happened? Because of gas profits and fear of losing monopoly. Remember that Russian state budget is 50% gas profits, they can't afford to lose it.
Another hidden cost is the extra wear and tear on the vehicles, aircraft, and equipment that does survive the war.
Short answer: No.
Longer Answer: Not in this century.
Thanks for playing.
Probably 100+ years as we see they still haven’t recovered from ww2 🤣🤣
*Great video and topic!*
I've myself been thinking about this very question for a while now as they've been *losing galactic amounts of equipment* since the war started. Also, as they're *sanctioned into oblivion* while also experiencing *greatly reduced revenue streams from oil & gas* by the day at an accelerating pace, the equation of rebuilding its army to pre-war levels must simply be completely unsolvable!
You obviously read very little. The sanctions have done nothing to Russian oil sales ..... but don't take my word for it. They have tripled their sales and their accounts are full. India buys Russian oil/gas, the U.K buys it from India.
As far as weaponry goes ..... have you heard Russia begging other countries for weapons ... like the little bitch does ? No ? That's because Russia has never stopped manufacturing their own weapons ...... they have plenty of steel and if they need more they buy from China.
Try and read more ..... it will help you understand why this war is a no brainer.
What do you mean rebuild special reduction operation is going way beyond our wildest expectations
Great video, clear and accurate with the underlying data being fully accurate witch both sides never give out. But your analysis wasnt leading to propaganda but more than average people can graps. Good job.
TLDR :
Physically YES
Mentally NO
AKA : I'll never mentally recover from this
Just coming back on 9/17/2022... after the equipment losses from the kharkiv oblast this equipment replacement time frame might need to be doubled.
The answer is basically "never".
Russia's best customer for gas and oil was Europe. By the time this is all over Europe will have likely moved over to more green energy sources.
50% of Russia's GDP is derived from oil and gas. So Russia is never likely to be as rich as it was before this started. Russia only starts wars or "operations" when the Ural oil price is $100+. You will notice it is dropping thanks to the U.S and Saudi's creating a deliberate oil surplus.
Russia's military power was derived from a huge surplus of Soviet era equipment and its nuclear arsenal.
Without decades worth of military equipment production sitting around in warehouses Russia can only afford a small military.
With its small post war budget Russia needs to seriously think about having a small high quality military rather than a huge bloated ineffective one made up of barely trained troops and obsolete equipment. Of course if Russia did not spend huge amounts of money on its huge internal security apparatus and over sized nuclear forces it could afford to have a better military.
China, Turkey, and India have increased orders of Russian oil this year. In fact, Russia is selling more oil at a higher price this year and is set to make a hefty profit. As for Europe, they are in a bind terrible. According to one estimate, Germany can't completely move away from Russian energy until 2027. That's why the EU comically passed a statement declaring gas to be a green energy source (yes, green gas!). Italy is looking at converting garbage to energy. Germany is telling its citizens to shower less or forego it altogether. What once happened to the East in the 20th century is happening to the West in the 21st.
@@hermanwooster8944 I believe India and China are getting Russian oil at a 20-30% discount, and neither uses as much as Europe. India is processing Russian oil and selling the products to Europe and others.
It also costs more to ship Russian oil to Asia. Russia has not got any new customers for its gas.
Russia is not getting more money for its oil. Anyone can see international oil prices. They are dropping. Brent Crude is under $88 per barrel and Ural is even less. On the first day of the war Brent Crude was $118 per barrel.
By Christmas Brent Crude may be as little as $65 per barrel. Ural will be even less. With a huge reduction in gas sales and falling oil prices Russia is definately not making more money.
In the long run, taking eastern Ukraine puts Russia in a very strong position as a supplier of gas and wheat. Europe has been moving to greener energy sources for decades and it still needs Russian gas. In the long run it can develop LPG infrastructure (too late for this winter) but it'll never be as cheap as piped gas straight from the Urals. Either Europe backtracks and trades with Russia or it deindustrialises and Germany accepts a significantly lower standard of living. My money is on mutually beneficial trade with Russia.
Wanna bet?
$10 says all fuel sanctions are dropped by Christmas.
@@simonmoorcroft1417 India, China and Turkey now purchase more Rus oil/gas than the EU. They are also generally buying it at a higher dollar than it was being sold for in 2021 (Urals Oil is being sold for $77 whereas for most of 2021 it was in the mid-60s range).
That's why Russia has announced they are set to make a 38% rise in energy export earnings this year, making over $330 billion USD in oil sales (Reuters).
Ursula von der Leyen warned months ago that such a scenario could occur if sanctions were misapplied. It occurred exactly as she warned.
This aged like a full baby diaper!
Russia has already lost 7400+ tanks, 14.000+ armoured vehicles, and 12.000+ artillery systems, as their stockpiles are running low. Meanwhile, Russia is incapable of producing new equipment fast enough to replace any noteworthy amount of losses. A yearly production of new equipment gets destroyed in one month.
Says Ukraine so basically no😂@@jehandesains8674
@jehandesains8674 What's your source for this information? 😂
@@ingen5161 satellite images of their stockpiles, video footage and geolocated verification of Russian equipment losses, and Russian production data.
@@jehandesains8674 What production data? We're seeing the russians breaking the Ukrainian lines despite all the Western funding coming into Ukraine. A year ago it was said the Russians were fighting with shovels yet they still make progress. Russia is in a wartime economy and are projected to grow faster than other advanced countries in the West, so how can they not produce the equipment needed? You sure that you're not reading propaganda? I've been reading here in Sweden that Russia is running out of everything and will collapse any day now for the past 2 years now lol
Thank you for the video! Much appreciated!
Anyone in the know has considered Russia a paper tiger for a decade. On paper they had thousands of vehicles and other platforms, but they obviously didn’t have the infrastructure and human capital to use it all.
Now, they aren’t even a paper tiger.
I'm skeptical Russia will even attempt to rebuild their military if they lose in Ukraine. What's the point of a large standing army if you can't conquer your direct neighbor? I think it really depends on the outcome of the war. I could see them trying to completely rebuild their military if their lose.
No one's buying Russian hardware anymore either.
Partly due to seeing how inadequate they are in a real fight.
Partly because they see that the orders will never be completed/delivered by Russia any time soon.
Don't underestimate a butthurt nation. If they have to spend 25% of their GDP for the next decades they may actually go ahead and do it. .
@@HeliosLegion Well, that's how Hitler happened....
@@HeliosLegion And then they'd lose, again.
@@SoloRenegade India is certainly still buying Russian hardware. They have just decreased it a little, but still the worlds biggest importer of Russian arms.
Great Job the other guys all use repeat videos this is great Thank You.
Fact: Russias GDP is just slightly above that of Spain - that BEFORE sanctions
Fact: Spain is incapable of projecting military power in significant form or build a major offensive military
Fact: if Spain cant do it Russia cant do it either as it lacks the money
Fact: Russias military is a leftover from the USSR and new generation weapons are only developed in very small numbers and never put to service in high numbers cause it lacks the money.
Fact: Russia is a giant on feet of clay.
Fact: Russia is wasting its stockpile of USSR leftover armament in Ukraine and once done it will be a third or fourth grade military and probably not recover from that for 50+ years cause it lacks the GDP.
Fact: Without western tech the Russian Military Complex is nothing.
Conclusion: Russia is on autodestruction in 2022
ok boomer😂
So cope
He wrote Fact so it must be true
Great analysis.
The pro-Putin trolls wont like to read it nor the jumped up Spanish Government.
Your facts are ridiculous and outrageous. Russia doesn't need Western tech. It can get whatever tech needs to build its military from its allies and especially China.
Unemployment is on the rise in Russia? I have heard the military is hiring...
Very informative and properly researched..
Very informative: Russia is increasingly looking like a paper tiger. Ukraine can - and will if it has to - fight as hard as it has been for another 6-12 months if the west continues to supply it at the same rate (which I'm personally confident it can). Russia probably can't sustain this level of military activity for another year without so hollowing out its other forces that it can't defend its territory.
If the war DOES carry on for another 12 months it appears from your analysis that the west won't have any problems from the russian army again in my lifetime (I'm 60)
Probably won’t have much of an impact for most of my lifetime either, I’m 22
You will probably die before you even see the end of this war
I think the bigger long term problem will be the increased dependants on conscripts who do not serve long enough to become expert on complex weapons systems as well as the loss of trust in Russian weapons, so a decrees in sales to other nations which Russia uses to piggyback upgrades to its own military .
Yep. What we're seeing now is that the only virtue Russian weapons have now is that they are cheap, only effective against a poorly equipped opponent.
You really need to make an update of this video, nearly triple the losses from when this was posted.