BABA is priced the same as in 2014, but their revenue is 13x higher today, they are buying back shares and they started paying a dividend. They are a leader in AI and their core business has stabilized and will slowly grow in the foreseeable future. I loaded up on BABA and a China ETF during the summer.
Plus, stock-based compensation has shrunk and the operating losses on the still unprofitable business units continue to shrink as they scale and may soon start adding to the bottom line.
Thinking that "BABA is priced the same as in 2014, but their revenue is 13x higher today" as a good thing today can give you a wrong perspective, China's stocks were way too over-valuated back then. Not saying that today they're over or under valuated, just giving my opinion on your statement.
Tencent is now something along the lines of ~20% of my portfolio and my second largest holding after Berkshire. My guess is in my lifetime we will witness China go from a manufacturing based to a service based economy and I believe Tencent and Alibaba are well positioned over the long run for this transformation.
Hi Sven, a few comments: 1. You're talking your book, but it's ok, agree with the analysis 2. I think Hang Seng index correlates better with tech stocks & etf indexes than SSE composite. 3. Nice to hear that you're still holding, so am I. Was thinking you sold already. 4. Just occurred to me that as Chinese giants are doing buybacks now, this should help long term asset values... 5. I lied above, being a newbie I sold third of my China position when it dipped a month ago at the very bottom. The remaining 2/3 is today up 32% (msci china etf). Looks that it has stabilized in US & volumes are back to normal. Good. 6. some volatility expected later, when China announces the exact sums for stimulus apparently this month... and probably US presidential elections...
Thanks to advice you gave me Sven over a year ago my portfolio is up nearly 30% in the last 12 months which is actually beating the market in the same period which I’ve been told is impossible for the average investor. Sven knows what he’s talking about and thanks to him I sleep well at night. Keep up the good work sir!
I don't think Sven would take any credit for a 1 year performance. Can simply be part of market volatility. Keep accumulating and growing undervalued businesses with strong cash flows and buybacks - we'll be much wiser and richer in 10-20+ years 🙌
I'm looking at the housing bubble in Hong Kong. Prices falling sharply by 13.1% in Q1 2024. People take out mortgages lending money from family, knowing they can pay them back the next year taking out a new loan against the expected increased property value. They were all asleep in 2008 it seems. You ask them, but what if prices drop. They can not comprehend this possibility.
A fair and balanced perspective and prudent course of action , that is with option 2 and 3 The valuation backdrop and gdp growth is made clear and with PBOC and upcoming fiscal stimulus , provides strong tailwinds, trump tariffs as Tepper said don’t care, key thing is this is the 4th instance of govt stimulus (2000,2008,2020 and now) Look where asset prices went up in those previous cases
Hi Sven, thanks for presenting your take on China. I was wondering about your 3rd strategy and maybe even the 2nd - the mid- and long-term hold. With CPC at the helm and its ideology of capitalism being just a phase enabling transition to communisim, how come these are still the options for you? Do you believe this will not happen soon? But w saw how CPC did away with BABA's Ma, even if this tansition has many years to come, they can still disposess any company any time...
You see with this once again that media narrative follows the stock price. In January I added a lot of Alibaba @67, and the news was abysmal. Now, it’s suddenly great. But this week it’s already bad again because the stock prices corrected slightly….. This is meta in 2022 all over again.
@@mathewwilson9776 it’s baffling to me but that seems the case. I’m 26 and only been investing for 3.5 years now, I shouldn’t have a keen grasp on this yet without formal education. But my conclusion is that an apparent 90% of people don’t know what they are doing and their ignorance is reinforced by the Financial Media ecosystem that claims to be informative.
Wow you must have balls of steel to buy at 67. That's the lowest risk price point to enter, congratulations! I entered back in 2021 at double that 😅😅😅 but if Benjamin Graham is right, the weighing machine will eventually takes place as Baba fundamentals haven't deteriorated since.
I have some BABA. I am still slightly down but it is almost even. I can wait. I also have some FLCH. I am now up fairly nicely! I am holding. I bought it as a long, long term play anyway. I did not expect this spike in prices. Now, I don't want to add. Maybe later I will. But, for now, I will just let it ride.
Inflow comes from new investments buying the KWEB ETF. Outflow only happens when they sell the ETF. Until then, they're holding the ETF, so no big outflows.
That same video Sven did say baba could go up 5x or down 50%. So he did call the drop from 200 to 100. Stocks are volatile and a good stock could drop 50%. if you can’t handle the volatility of stocks you are better off with the index for better sleep
@@zeshanfarooqui1 that is quite a range! :)) if the min was around 57 that is actually a +70% decrease. Anyway...i know how sven works "see how that fits you" is always the message!
Thank you, Sven. Was looking forward to hearing your opinion on this. Stocks are on the downtrend now so not sure if this is just a pump and dump scheme.
It’s neither. It’s both. A category starts to rise, people who jump in early pump it before jumping out. The category begins to fall, people who short it early in the downtrend are equally aggressive in talking about how the downtrend will continue.
Hey Sven! Great content so far wondering if ykuve seen the 1 ir 3 big Canadian Telecoms names Telus communications still sitting 30-35% down from its highs with a very good divident track record sitting at 6 something percent now. Would love to here your thoughts on them!
Check the future cash flows, debt levels, payout ratio. They're paying way too much dividend, even higher than free cash flow for the last few years. That's unsustainable and risky for a giant Telco with lots of debt.
Exactly, I have positions in BABA and JD and they've gone up quite nicely since I bought, and I think they're still quite undervalued according to my calculations... It's riskier to buy any other, much more expensive stocks right now than these very good Chinese companies I believe. Thank you!
Hi Sven, could you do a video on Peter Lynch’s and Benjamin Graham’s stock valuation methods? Do you think they are applicable in today’s world of investing?
Thanks Sven!! Appreciate all the effor to keep us informed. Can you please do a video about Brazil stocks (seem undervalued) Banco Bradesco BBD and Gerdau, similar to the one you did with Ambev. Many thanks!!
There is an interesting conversation here about to what extent value investors should look at price action when buying. Obviously the pure value investor pays no attention to it but in the real world I don't know any value investors who don't look at something like this and consider waiting for markets to cool off before they buy.
Why wasn't one of the options of 'What to do' - to sell 20-30%, bringing the portfolio allocation a bit closer to where it was a month ago. I assume that % allocation (a month ago) was chosen as the appropriate bet size given the company/country risk, uncertainty and growth prospects (which, as you said, are now slightly lower)
@@PrasantCroissant well, "his philosophy" or "value investment philosophy". Warren Buffet seems to think that when the valuation is not making you as excited about the future you ought to take that into account in your allocation (Apple).
@@T0mkisss people buy for one reason but can sell for many different reasons. Idk exactly why he sold apple there are many theories. Ofc one could be he thinks is overvalued which I totally understand. But the resizing of the portfolio depends totally on your strategy. It sounds like between strategy A and B in Sven's video. Personally I try not to do that as I believe it hurts long term returns and if I think a business is overvalued I sell everything for better opportunities. But if you need more stability in the portfolio or don't like being overexposed to something, I understand taking some profits now and letting the rest grow. Just my thoughts
@@PrasantCroissant somehow feels like we're talking about 2 different things. What I'm saying is that I (and seemingly Buffet, and even Sven - when he buys) am happy to be 20-30% in a stock that sells below conservative liquidation value and offers in the ballpark of 20% long term annual return. But if it goes up 70% overnight with no changed fundamentals and offers 12% return without the liquidation backstop - I might keep it in the portfolio as there are not many stocks with an expected 12% return, but it makes no sense to now hold 40-50% of the portfolio in it. Sounds like a pretty obvious scenario to me.
@@bananaboyTS You just head over to the Hong Kong exchange, ask yourself what kind of businesses you like, understand and would be comfortable holding, and go through them one by one. ADR's either don't exist or are too illiquid, so it has to be native HK shares.
I just don't understand how people always gets on media hooks, mass media just induces needed volatility, it's always about pump and dump scheme and trimming for big players. It's like a standard, 1-2 "major" events about company shouted over all media outlets and that suddenly moves prices despite fundamentals and reality.. Just think more about actual company fundamentals and perspectives. For example alibaba has 100-200% growth in AI cloud computing sector, it that continues for a few years it will be one of the main source of revenue for alibaba.
I bought on the top before it started dipping. I didn't really buy from FOMO because I compared China with S & P 500, and China stocks have fair better PE ratio, with tons of free cash flow. Just curious if there are rules that I can follow to avoid this from happening again.
@@Value-Investing I'm debating on something. What if I limit myself to only buy any stock (all researched and confirmed a good stock that won't go bankrupt soon) after a huge dip (10% or more)? Then I always have a margin of safety. Even if it continues to dip, I don't lose as much. Sound like a good plan?
I own tencent since 3 years, i would hold the stock for the next 50 years to be honest, but the issue for me it is not the economical situation in China but the geopolitical risk (Taiwan), so I will hold it but if the price goes really high more or less the price in 2021 i will sell, we are talking anyway about 30% per year (not bad).
The Overall Small Caps EV sector Dip-buying growing. Nikola..Frey EV batteries.. Lillium Evtol Jets.. Xos Trucks.. Archer Evtol Jets..Lion Electric.. Rivian..Lucid..Qs...Joby Evtol Jets, more. Thumbs Up video/ comments. Thanks.
The problem with Chinese stocks like say, Alibaba is that most of it's market cap is owned by Chinese retail investors. They tend to panic buy and panic sell and they don't base their purchases on fundamentals. Instead they just buy when the price goes up. Chinese people don't really understand the concept of investment in the stock market. They see it more like a casino. That's why, unlike the s&p, there's no linear growth. The charts are all boom and bust spikey.
@@fizzyfish-k4q the volatility brings opportunities to value investors so that's a good thing for us. Also stocks and shares are ~10% of household assets in China - savings and real estate are the main ones. Let's see when the economy improves and consumer demands pick up, things may then revert around. Till then, stock prices are depressed. In the case of household assets, I imagine as the service sector and financial sector develops in China with government approval we can see more retail investors joining the financial markets. But that's harder to predict when and how or IF.
I find it paradoxical that we are assessing companies in a communist country with a capitalist lens. Chinese companies are essentially regulated utilities. Their profits are all artificially capped and the business are subject to high degrees of government intervention.
What about the political risk? Trump risk? Invading Taiwan risk? Also question - can due to some tensions, etc. the chinese companies be delisted from the US/EU stock exchanges? What happen then?
US/EU economy is highly dependent on goods and supplies from China. Any attempt at doing economic harm to China will also in turn affects the US/EU market. Imagine what would happen to Apple if China no longer produce their iphones and computers because US decides to sanction China? All US companies relies on China in one way or another. So both US and EU economies and their stock market will crash if they decides to punish China. So without China, the whole global economy will die since the world depends on China manufacturing and supply chains. Therefore, it doesn't matter where you invest your money because the entire global stock market will crash without China.
Chinese stocks began to plummet on October 9, 2067, and have continued to decline sharply since. I sincerely hope that the Chinese government will implement measures to stimulate domestic consumption and genuinely support grassroots people, similar to the thorough approach taken by Thailand, which addresses the needs of its citizens rather than just focusing on the real estate sector. Otherwise, even if all properties are sold, the endless cycle of creating new real estate will not solve the underlying issues. ตอบกลับ
If US citizen, there is the risk of sanctions for sure. Back in Trump administration, some Chinese companies got delisted and sanctioned from US citizens.
With Chinese stocks you own shell company in Bahamas good look defending your ownership stake in Chinese court. President Xi may wake up tomorrow and zero all your investments do you put that in your valuation model?
@@PrasantCroissant you need to qualify. What's the discount appropriate for that kind of risk? If you claim to be a value investor you need to know it. Just going and saying "China cheap" "s&p500 expensive" is disingenuous at best.
China is cheap for sure. At the same time, the political risk (or the Xi factor) cannot be over stated. Looking at how he treated Jack Ma or Peng Shuai, is one of the reasons of uncertainty. Or his "common prosperity" ideology. With China, "You'll never know what you'll gonna get", like Forrest Gump said. I am willing to bet my money on China, but only a very small percentage.
I honestly think that was a facepalm decision. The Chinese stock market is only 30 years old. They are still figuring things out. They know they've made a few mistakes that have scared off foreign investors but they know they need a stock market and they need foreign investment.
BABA is priced the same as in 2014, but their revenue is 13x higher today, they are buying back shares and they started paying a dividend. They are a leader in AI and their core business has stabilized and will slowly grow in the foreseeable future.
I loaded up on BABA and a China ETF during the summer.
Plus, stock-based compensation has shrunk and the operating losses on the still unprofitable business units continue to shrink as they scale and may soon start adding to the bottom line.
Cashflow has been slightly down last couple of years ,it s the only think + cause it s chinese that can justify this ridiculous p/e
Thinking that "BABA is priced the same as in 2014, but their revenue is 13x higher today" as a good thing today can give you a wrong perspective, China's stocks were way too over-valuated back then. Not saying that today they're over or under valuated, just giving my opinion on your statement.
@@cesararias1983 Fair enough. I think that BABA is significantly undervalued. Could go to 500 by 2030.
thanks for sharing
This video update on China was very much needed 🎉
thanks!
We simply do not deserve you Sven. Thank U for all your teaching. It changed my life
Wow, thank you
Tencent is now something along the lines of ~20% of my portfolio and my second largest holding after Berkshire. My guess is in my lifetime we will witness China go from a manufacturing based to a service based economy and I believe Tencent and Alibaba are well positioned over the long run for this transformation.
BABA-Man here. I salute you. Will hold for the foreseeable long future
thanks for sharing!
Thank you Sven, amazing to hear your opinion on this topic!
:-)
Un discorso da value investor puro!
Grazie Sven!
:-)
Hi Sven, a few comments:
1. You're talking your book, but it's ok, agree with the analysis
2. I think Hang Seng index correlates better with tech stocks & etf indexes than SSE composite.
3. Nice to hear that you're still holding, so am I. Was thinking you sold already.
4. Just occurred to me that as Chinese giants are doing buybacks now, this should help long term asset values...
5. I lied above, being a newbie I sold third of my China position when it dipped a month ago at the very bottom. The remaining 2/3 is today up 32% (msci china etf). Looks that it has stabilized in US & volumes are back to normal. Good.
6. some volatility expected later, when China announces the exact sums for stimulus apparently this month... and probably US presidential elections...
thanks for sharing!
Thanks to advice you gave me Sven over a year ago my portfolio is up nearly 30% in the last 12 months which is actually beating the market in the same period which I’ve been told is impossible for the average investor. Sven knows what he’s talking about and thanks to him I sleep well at night. Keep up the good work sir!
I don't think Sven would take any credit for a 1 year performance. Can simply be part of market volatility. Keep accumulating and growing undervalued businesses with strong cash flows and buybacks - we'll be much wiser and richer in 10-20+ years 🙌
thanks, but the focus should be on buying good fundamentals at a good price, not at things going up 30% in a short period of time!
I'm looking at the housing bubble in Hong Kong. Prices falling sharply by 13.1% in Q1 2024. People take out mortgages lending money from family, knowing they can pay them back the next year taking out a new loan against the expected increased property value. They were all asleep in 2008 it seems. You ask them, but what if prices drop. They can not comprehend this possibility.
It's hard to comprehend such things at the peak of the bubble if you've been caught up in the wave 😅😅
thanks for sharing!
A fair and balanced perspective and prudent course of action , that is with option 2 and 3
The valuation backdrop and gdp growth is made clear and with PBOC and upcoming fiscal stimulus , provides strong tailwinds, trump tariffs as Tepper said don’t care, key thing is this is the 4th instance of govt stimulus (2000,2008,2020 and now)
Look where asset prices went up in those previous cases
Hi Sven, thanks for presenting your take on China. I was wondering about your 3rd strategy and maybe even the 2nd - the mid- and long-term hold. With CPC at the helm and its ideology of capitalism being just a phase enabling transition to communisim, how come these are still the options for you? Do you believe this will not happen soon? But w saw how CPC did away with BABA's Ma, even if this tansition has many years to come, they can still disposess any company any time...
it doesn't move fast, we follow and we adjust according to new information
I did the same, kept my China stocks and ETFs and bought a bit more. The exposure is limited, less than 10% of my portfolio.
thanks for sharing!
You see with this once again that media narrative follows the stock price. In January I added a lot of Alibaba @67, and the news was abysmal. Now, it’s suddenly great.
But this week it’s already bad again because the stock prices corrected slightly…..
This is meta in 2022 all over again.
They just chase prices like headless chicken.
@@mathewwilson9776 it’s baffling to me but that seems the case.
I’m 26 and only been investing for 3.5 years now, I shouldn’t have a keen grasp on this yet without formal education.
But my conclusion is that an apparent 90% of people don’t know what they are doing and their ignorance is reinforced by the Financial Media ecosystem that claims to be informative.
Wow you must have balls of steel to buy at 67. That's the lowest risk price point to enter, congratulations!
I entered back in 2021 at double that 😅😅😅 but if Benjamin Graham is right, the weighing machine will eventually takes place as Baba fundamentals haven't deteriorated since.
just parrots in the news, stock prices follow!
Green dragon lets go ❤❤❤
thanks for sharing
What happened to csiq Canadian solar? Why the huge divergence between csi solar ,( it’s subsidiary) and its parent csiq ?
Perhaps a holding discount. Some investors like to play that by buying the cheaper business in hopes the discount closes sometime in future.
don't follow, don't know :=(
Agreed. Also keeping my position.
thanks for sharing
great job Sven as usual!!!
thanks!
Sven, could you pls comment on the Uranium and Nuclear ETF NUCG? Thank you!
not a specialist on uranium
I have some BABA. I am still slightly down but it is almost even. I can wait. I also have some FLCH. I am now up fairly nicely! I am holding. I bought it as a long, long term play anyway. I did not expect this spike in prices. Now, I don't want to add. Maybe later I will. But, for now, I will just let it ride.
thanks for sharing
Where the inflow comes from ? There must be some outflow to counter balace it
Inflow comes from new investments buying the KWEB ETF. Outflow only happens when they sell the ETF. Until then, they're holding the ETF, so no big outflows.
there is plenty of money in the world, $3 billion is peanuts
I chose the "sell" strategy last week. If the individual stock (JD, BABA) come back down, I may start a position again. Otherwise, I won't sweat it
thanks for sharing!
Great explanation as usual, bringing light to short-term thinkers to transform themselves into long-term thinkers (and get rich in the process) 🙌
thanks
you better be, you had baba "cheap" at 200USD !
BABA at 200 was, in my opinion, google-cheap back then.
That same video Sven did say baba could go up 5x or down 50%. So he did call the drop from 200 to 100. Stocks are volatile and a good stock could drop 50%. if you can’t handle the volatility of stocks you are better off with the index for better sleep
@@zeshanfarooqui1 that is quite a range! :)) if the min was around 57 that is actually a +70% decrease. Anyway...i know how sven works "see how that fits you" is always the message!
@@TidusVenyes , he said it was, then averaging down he's probably up 30 % now in two years..and baba is still cheap.. so who's the idiot?
@@gianlucaottani8779 not me, I've hoarding since 2022 :)
Thank you, Sven. Was looking forward to hearing your opinion on this. Stocks are on the downtrend now so not sure if this is just a pump and dump scheme.
It’s neither. It’s both.
A category starts to rise, people who jump in early pump it before jumping out.
The category begins to fall, people who short it early in the downtrend are equally aggressive in talking about how the downtrend will continue.
thanks for sharing!
Hey Sven! Great content so far wondering if ykuve seen the 1 ir 3 big Canadian Telecoms names Telus communications still sitting 30-35% down from its highs with a very good divident track record sitting at 6 something percent now. Would love to here your thoughts on them!
Check the future cash flows, debt levels, payout ratio.
They're paying way too much dividend, even higher than free cash flow for the last few years. That's unsustainable and risky for a giant Telco with lots of debt.
too expensive for me!
Exactly, I have positions in BABA and JD and they've gone up quite nicely since I bought, and I think they're still quite undervalued according to my calculations... It's riskier to buy any other, much more expensive stocks right now than these very good Chinese companies I believe. Thank you!
Hi Sven, could you do a video on Peter Lynch’s and Benjamin Graham’s stock valuation methods? Do you think they are applicable in today’s world of investing?
He's done a full review for both of their books and methods already in the past. You can search the names together with Sven , enjoy 👍
ruclips.net/video/jw1S1V4ASQw/видео.html
🗽 Sven what do you think about LRCX (Lam Research)? They have their business in Asia (including China). The stock currently looks like value.
.
no idea :-(
Thanks Sven!! Appreciate all the effor to keep us informed. Can you please do a video about Brazil stocks (seem undervalued) Banco Bradesco BBD and Gerdau, similar to the one you did with Ambev. Many thanks!!
thanks for suggesting!
There is an interesting conversation here about to what extent value investors should look at price action when buying. Obviously the pure value investor pays no attention to it but in the real world I don't know any value investors who don't look at something like this and consider waiting for markets to cool off before they buy.
I buy when I have the money and when I like what I see, I can't predict short term prices
Great video. What if im up 50% but the thing im holding is still the cheapest thing?
Yes it’s worth over $200 easy
6:55 sounds like 2nd and 3rd option
:-)
Sven, maybe some defensive Chinese stocks now? Like China Shineway?
never heard of it ?
@@Value-Investing Never mind! Question: After China big tech made a leap, should a value investor buy a defensive stock?
Why wasn't one of the options of 'What to do' - to sell 20-30%, bringing the portfolio allocation a bit closer to where it was a month ago. I assume that % allocation (a month ago) was chosen as the appropriate bet size given the company/country risk, uncertainty and growth prospects (which, as you said, are now slightly lower)
His value investment philosophy doesn't really trim positions. Purely focusing on valuations and future outlook.
@@PrasantCroissant well, "his philosophy" or "value investment philosophy". Warren Buffet seems to think that when the valuation is not making you as excited about the future you ought to take that into account in your allocation (Apple).
@@T0mkisss people buy for one reason but can sell for many different reasons. Idk exactly why he sold apple there are many theories. Ofc one could be he thinks is overvalued which I totally understand.
But the resizing of the portfolio depends totally on your strategy. It sounds like between strategy A and B in Sven's video. Personally I try not to do that as I believe it hurts long term returns and if I think a business is overvalued I sell everything for better opportunities. But if you need more stability in the portfolio or don't like being overexposed to something, I understand taking some profits now and letting the rest grow. Just my thoughts
ah, impossible to answer, I don't like trimming, I either close or hold
@@PrasantCroissant somehow feels like we're talking about 2 different things.
What I'm saying is that I (and seemingly Buffet, and even Sven - when he buys) am happy to be 20-30% in a stock that sells below conservative liquidation value and offers in the ballpark of 20% long term annual return. But if it goes up 70% overnight with no changed fundamentals and offers 12% return without the liquidation backstop - I might keep it in the portfolio as there are not many stocks with an expected 12% return, but it makes no sense to now hold 40-50% of the portfolio in it.
Sounds like a pretty obvious scenario to me.
Thank you for commenting on this.
:-)
Thanks Sven for sharing your thoughts 👏 What do you think about Baba or Baidu at this levels?
:-)
Many chinese companies with 8% dividend yield, even more. Clean balance and good numbers. Happy to wait for better times…
Examples?
yeah please give some examples
@@bananaboyTS You just head over to the Hong Kong exchange, ask yourself what kind of businesses you like, understand and would be comfortable holding, and go through them one by one. ADR's either don't exist or are too illiquid, so it has to be native HK shares.
@@mathewwilson9776 yeah i also got burned with adrs with russia i wont do that again to save 3 bucks
@@clint0072 petrachina, holding on 80% gain and 14% dividend, haha.
I just don't understand how people always gets on media hooks, mass media just induces needed volatility, it's always about pump and dump scheme and trimming for big players. It's like a standard, 1-2 "major" events about company shouted over all media outlets and that suddenly moves prices despite fundamentals and reality..
Just think more about actual company fundamentals and perspectives. For example alibaba has 100-200% growth in AI cloud computing sector, it that continues for a few years it will be one of the main source of revenue for alibaba.
thanks for sharing!
KWEB is the same as it was 10 years ago though, I don't know how to justify investing here, especially at an emerging market PE over 25
thanks for sharing
Run!!!!
:-)
I bought on the top before it started dipping.
I didn't really buy from FOMO because I compared China with S & P 500, and China stocks have fair better PE ratio, with tons of free cash flow.
Just curious if there are rules that I can follow to avoid this from happening again.
you can't predict stock prices up or down
@@Value-Investing I'm debating on something. What if I limit myself to only buy any stock (all researched and confirmed a good stock that won't go bankrupt soon) after a huge dip (10% or more)? Then I always have a margin of safety. Even if it continues to dip, I don't lose as much. Sound like a good plan?
I own tencent since 3 years, i would hold the stock for the next 50 years to be honest, but the issue for me it is not the economical situation in China but the geopolitical risk (Taiwan), so I will hold it but if the price goes really high more or less the price in 2021 i will sell, we are talking anyway about 30% per year (not bad).
thanks for sharing!
Dividend increases would be a major catalyst.
yes, improvements in fundamentals
The Overall Small Caps EV sector Dip-buying growing. Nikola..Frey EV batteries.. Lillium Evtol Jets.. Xos Trucks.. Archer Evtol Jets..Lion Electric.. Rivian..Lucid..Qs...Joby Evtol Jets, more. Thumbs Up video/ comments. Thanks.
thanks for sharing!
The etf for asia and china are too expensive
thanks for sharing!
That is a normal ETF thing, they hold most of the expensive things.
@@Value-Investing i mean the TER
Sven probably has PDD and Baba :)
Baba yes 😉
:-)
well, as a Chinese, it is not recommended to buy Chinese stocks. Chinese stock market is not for value investors😢
Why do you say that
exactly why it is, we look for value while others gamble
The problem with Chinese stocks like say, Alibaba is that most of it's market cap is owned by Chinese retail investors. They tend to panic buy and panic sell and they don't base their purchases on fundamentals. Instead they just buy when the price goes up. Chinese people don't really understand the concept of investment in the stock market. They see it more like a casino. That's why, unlike the s&p, there's no linear growth. The charts are all boom and bust spikey.
@@fizzyfish-k4q the volatility brings opportunities to value investors so that's a good thing for us. Also stocks and shares are ~10% of household assets in China - savings and real estate are the main ones. Let's see when the economy improves and consumer demands pick up, things may then revert around. Till then, stock prices are depressed.
In the case of household assets, I imagine as the service sector and financial sector develops in China with government approval we can see more retail investors joining the financial markets. But that's harder to predict when and how or IF.
I find it paradoxical that we are assessing companies in a communist country with a capitalist lens. Chinese companies are essentially regulated utilities. Their profits are all artificially capped and the business are subject to high degrees of government intervention.
What about the political risk?
Trump risk?
Invading Taiwan risk?
Also question - can due to some tensions, etc. the chinese companies be delisted from the US/EU stock exchanges? What happen then?
US/EU economy is highly dependent on goods and supplies from China. Any attempt at doing economic harm to China will also in turn affects the US/EU market. Imagine what would happen to Apple if China no longer produce their iphones and computers because US decides to sanction China? All US companies relies on China in one way or another. So both US and EU economies and their stock market will crash if they decides to punish China. So without China, the whole global economy will die since the world depends on China manufacturing and supply chains. Therefore, it doesn't matter where you invest your money because the entire global stock market will crash without China.
You can convert ADRs to HK stocks.
@@radosval How?
@@walden6272 Had a longer answer, but it got filtered out, so here is the 2nd try: Interactive Brokers has an ADR Conversions page
if that risks materializes, we will not be thinking about our stocks at all
I'd rather own GOLD AND SILVER
thanks for sharing!
Chinese stocks began to plummet on October 9, 2067, and have continued to decline sharply since. I sincerely hope that the Chinese government will implement measures to stimulate domestic consumption and genuinely support grassroots people, similar to the thorough approach taken by Thailand, which addresses the needs of its citizens rather than just focusing on the real estate sector. Otherwise, even if all properties are sold, the endless cycle of creating new real estate will not solve the underlying issues.
ตอบกลับ
thanks for sharing
Thanks Sven, what are your current positions in China ?
"The terminal value of Chinese securities for a western investor is ZERO" - Russell Napier
If US citizen, there is the risk of sanctions for sure. Back in Trump administration, some Chinese companies got delisted and sanctioned from US citizens.
thanks for sharing
🙏🙏🙏
:-)
You cant own chinese stocks and that makes them totally uninvestable, at least for me
Don’t you think ‘uninvestable’ has been priced in?
@@WanderlusttheWorld nothing can be priced in to something that you cant own
thanks for sharing!
Take the money and run. I'd rather own crypto vs any chinese stock.
Wonderful, I was hoping to buy more at cheaper prices 😊
thanks for sharing!
With Chinese stocks you own shell company in Bahamas good look defending your ownership stake in Chinese court. President Xi may wake up tomorrow and zero all your investments do you put that in your valuation model?
Yes he does, always in the risk section.
@@PrasantCroissant you need to qualify. What's the discount appropriate for that kind of risk? If you claim to be a value investor you need to know it. Just going and saying "China cheap" "s&p500 expensive" is disingenuous at best.
@@ulam_spiral just like you said in your original comment, it could go to Zero.
yes, all risk is quantifiable: CAN GO TO ZERO! They I also usually say, see how it fits your portfolio!
China is cheap for sure. At the same time, the political risk (or the Xi factor) cannot be over stated. Looking at how he treated Jack Ma or Peng Shuai, is one of the reasons of uncertainty. Or his "common prosperity" ideology. With China, "You'll never know what you'll gonna get", like Forrest Gump said. I am willing to bet my money on China, but only a very small percentage.
thanks for sharing
I honestly think that was a facepalm decision. The Chinese stock market is only 30 years old. They are still figuring things out. They know they've made a few mistakes that have scared off foreign investors but they know they need a stock market and they need foreign investment.