Temperatures rise but rain risk increases. 14 day UK weather forecast

TheWeatherOutlook's Brian Gaze takes a look at the 14 day UK weather prospects from April 23rd.
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The forecast focuses on trends and probabilities during the second week rather than specifics.
Differences in the output from computer model is highlighted and the most probable outcomes are considered.
Uses high resolution graphics from a range of computer models to give an in-depth view.
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[@johnr7769]

Thank you Brian. Excellent presentation as usual.

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Very welcome

[@markbleak7228]

Nice presentation to much rain in south west

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Thanks a lot

[@adamblunsdon7784]

Nice video Brian

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Thanks 👍

[@stopthatluca]

Thank you Brian. I see, so your cloud sweatshirt is a predictor of greater chance of wet weather to come, got it.

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Correct!

[@chas3997]

Thank god back to the deluge 😁☔better than this cold muck

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Not sure I'd describe it as better but definitely a change back

[@chas3997]

We don’t want any more northerly outbreaks with omega blocks Brian 🤣probably the worst set up you could have at this time of year! If we get this again I’d rather have the topple over high pressure with winds backing SW.😀@@TheWeatherOutlookTWO

[@jamesjukebox2386]

Remaining mild at least and warmer, could be breaking all sorts of records this year rainfall, temps etc, cheers Brian.

[@COVID_Is_Not_Over_Yet]

Yep. Don’t be surprised if we break any records, like the dozens we broke in 2023.

[@Zaf2010]

I dont much care what records are broken or not broken I’d just like a bit of sensibly warm weather its like winter on the east coast

[@jamesjukebox2386]

@@Zaf2010 Winter behave, we don' t have winters in this country.

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

The switch to ENSO neutral then La Nina may result in lower temperatures as we head through the year. We'll see.

[@jamesjukebox2386]

@@TheWeatherOutlookTWO Possibly, but it always brings more rainfall, which is not what we need, either way the overall picture is global temps rising.

[@chrisa9043]

It feels chilly for the time of year.

[@_GarethRossUK]

I suspect the coldest April for many decades if it wasn't for the three days earlier this month of 21+c.

[@martryan2060]

Think John kettley wants his jumper back lol 😀
Until the sea temperature and land temperature harmonize
With all the moisture and humidity next 4 weeks are going to be pretty dank look on the bright side were only 6 weeks away from the start of the hurricane season 😂😂😂
Another spanner in the works😂😂

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

An active hurricane season could help drier and warmer weather develop in western Europe.

[@islawilliams9572]

thank you brian.

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Thanks

[@saffieification]

still love that sweatshirt... great job more rain 😬

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Thanks

[@mikeoxlong4110]

Everyone involved with Geo Engineering must face Capital Punishment.

[@chrisa9043]

We will see what happens in the long range.

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

Indeed

[@RonMcKenzie-bw7iq]

Why is the subject of DLOUD SEEDING never discussed. As a golfer living in London all it has done since end of October 2023 is rain. Climate change my ass. More to it. I have been in Marrakesh twice since mainly to play golf. My golf course here in Ealing has suffered so much and we are still playing in mud and temporary greens and preferred lies and it is almost May. I have never seen anything like this. And you say it is warmer? This week at 8am it has been averaging 3 - 6 degrees sometimes less. There is something not quite right. Ok climate change is a concern but this sudden change in the past 6 months defies belief. Ok for all non golfers or non farmers etc who probably are not so aware of what is going on. So Mr Weather Outlook man any comments?

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

I used to live in Ealing and have played on the golf course several times (unless there are others in the locality I'm unaware of). Cloud seeding is irrelevant to the weather we have been experiencing recently. It's not a new development and the impacts on rainfall tend to be localised. Computer models which have no concept of cloud seeding have consistently been predicting high levels of rain, which in large part has been due to the jet stream profile across the North Atlantic region.

[@chas3997]

The global air temperatures have risen 1.5c so the air can hold more water vapour and that means more rain ( also presumably more cooling effect in spring from cloudy wet days) @@TheWeatherOutlookTWO

[@COVID_Is_Not_Over_Yet]

Thanks Brian Gaze

[@TheWeatherOutlookTWO]

My pleasure!