Hey everyone, thanks for watching. Made a mistake in the beginning, instead of 'One tenth of one percent' I should have said 'One one-hundredth of one percent'. Doesn't effect the final figure but worth mentioning. What are your estimates for total Wizarding population size? Why? Let me know down below.
This theory assumes that everything is equal, which would mean the sorting hat would be limited as to the number of students that it can put in the individual houses. For example if Slitherin had reached a max of 40 students, someone who should be in Slithern would have to be placed in another house. The same applies for new enrollees. Look at college admissions. The number change each yr. Plus, not all students return. So, it doesn't seem to hold water to base the theory off assuming all is equal. It would make more sense to base it off the world cup
I may have to revisit my own calculations, but I figured more like 1000 magical folk in Britain and Ireland, and closer to 1 million worldwide. Then there are the variables, like squibs and magically potential genetic lines of muggles, wizarding school branches for highly populated regions, homeschoolers, those who refuse to participate in the magical educational system, etc. I also considered magical people who just don't measure up academically - do they go to magical trade schools (like Stan Shunpike)? I think the most labor-intensive role of the Magical Ministries is to herd all of these people to keep them quiet from muggle attention.
I don't think it's fair to count Harry's year, as just like Nick noticed that year the Gryffindor's newcomelings were very few. Maybe because of the Voldemorts's war. So the number of 1000 Hogwarts students should be true. + some homeschooled. Let's not forget, Hogwarts also accepts those from Ireland (Seamus). The life expectancy by wizards is somewhat higher too, about 115 years, I guess (Dumbledore's age). Compared to 80 years to UK's muggles. So 1000/7x115=16.428 Wizards and WItches in UK & Ireland (appr. 17.000 including the homeschooled). Now there are 70 mln in UK+IE, so the magic proportion is 17.000/70.000.000=0,000243=0,0243%. So the world population 7.800.000.000x0,000243=18.954.000. Btw Rowling never said that Hogwarts was the only school in the UK, only the best one. WHich applies there are more lesser schools. I always believed it's more like a population of a little town like between 25.000-50.000, the Hogsmead, DIagon ALley and Ministry of Magic with all those crowds of people make sense, Btw. if we taake into account that HP-Series take place in the 90s, the UK population was smaller, and therefore this proportion must be higher, so ....
Fifa world cup in 2018 3.03 million people attended, the population in 2018 was 7.594 billion. So 0.4% of the wold attended the work cup. So if 100,000 people attended the qudditch world cup and let say that's 0.4% of the wizarding population it means at that time the wizarding population was over 25 million people. What do you think people?
I feel like these numbers are much too low, for a few reasons: 1. Look at how many witches and wizards work for the Ministry of Magic and MACUSA alone. Those are some huge institutions. I'd say the Ministry of Magic employs at least 1'000 people. An arbitrary number, yes, but with how many people we see running around there and how many different sections they have, I think it's a well founded guesstimate. And I doubt that a third of the UK's magical population works for the Ministry. Which makes me think the population has to be bigger. Same for other countries 2. Wizards and witches have a much longer lifespan than muggles, so we can't apply the same percentage of students compared to other folk. 3. The Quidditch World Cup we witnessed in Goblet of Fire is said to have around 100'000 attendees. Which makes me think your number of around 120'000 magical folk in the whole world is a little low. I doubt that 80% of all magical folk would be able to attend. There have to be some people working to keep wizarding society running. They can't all be on holiday at the same time 4. The UK is a highly developed country with muggles living everywhere. So magical enclaves would be rare, since muggles would have hunted them almost to extinction. But what about less developed countries, or less densely populated countries? Wizards could have larger enclaves there as it would be easier to hide. Like in the Amazon rainforest or Siberia. Taking all that into account, I'd say the magical population worldwide is at least 1'000'000. Again an arbitrary number, but reasonable I think. However, I applaud your calculations. You took what numbers you had and went from there. My numbers are guesstimates at best
I agree. Also, since wizards would have died out if they hadn't married Muggles, more witches and wizards would have been reproduced, even if they aren't pureblood. I believe there is 800 students at Hogwarts because in the Quidditch final of Gryffindor and Slytherin in PoA, it says that 3/4 were supporting Gryffindor, but 200 were in green. Green is for Slytherin and would hence equal the 1/4, so 800 would work using that information from the book. Also, in the time of the founders, they handpicked students whereas at Hogwarts 1000 years later, they use the Quill of Acceptance to pick all students with capable magical ability. And of course, parents always had the choice to teach their children magic themselves. Hence, I think your figure of one million would be more accurate. Maybe slightly less because they would be less breaches of the Statue of Secrecy. :)
I think that 780K-1M sounds right to me. Coz I have always thought of a ratio of 1:10000 for wizard to muggle ratio. Wizards live longer appx. 137.5 years according to the dept. of Divine Health of Britain. The wizard society seems to have a larger older population due to better living social conditions. They seem to have lower birth rates and yet very low infant mortality which maintains a stable population. The demographic curve would be unusual. Since the wizard world is a completely different society it’s hard to say if less muggle population means more wizards coz thanks to magic they can adapt anywhere to any environment ex British Ministry of Magic is thousands of feet underground and it seems to me that modern wizards now prefer residing in populated areas near urban and city limits to enjoy the latest developments that muggle innovation has to offer. Also the maps are not drawn up in the same way as muggles ex Transylvania a region part of Romania is a separate nation and so it Liechtenstein therefore its hard to determine the exact population per county or more accurately by region. If we divide the number by the 7 continents we get about ~140k per continent if we divide by the number of sovereign states and dependent autonomous regions in Europe we get ~3000K per state. However in another story mentioned in the daily prophet. One of the oldest wizards named Barry Wee Willie Winkle sent out invitations to over 30M wizards he knew to attend his 755th birthday. This could be an error on JK Rowling part as she as stated that math isn’t her strongest suit.
not forgetting the fact that the indian and chinese population is the biggest in the whole worlds including muggles so they both must have a really big population and also thatno event of any dark wizard was mentioned there so there must be little to no bloodshed and witch burning was not prominent in indian subcontinent but how it was considered that they were gifted by hindu god vishnu with these powers
Also… developed nations have much lower birth rates than developing ones, so using Britain as a baseline to calculate numbers for all the rest of the world is a bit silly.
Rowling was right about the number of students at Hogwarts, there is less kids in Harry’s generation because the dark lord killed their families, therefore resulting in less students in those years, I think Rowling is talking about the average number of students, not just in Harry’s generation.
I think you're right. The story does seem to reference A LOT of unused classrooms and spaces in the school which suggests a much higher capacity then what is currently there. Certain subjects are also mentioned in Pottermore that can be taught as there is a need, which seems to say that when there were more students, there were more classes and subjects available.
I think the world wide wizarding population is higher than 119,000. Remember 422nd Quidditch world cup. There were approximately 100,000 people at the stadium. If 84% of population was at a single place, only 19000 left in the rest of the world. How does that sound???
I agree with you. I researched and somewhere in between 0,5 an 1% of the whole world population goes to world soccer in muggle world which would be comparable to quidditch, so it would mean that there are around 100.000.000 wizards worldwide (13% if muggle population). Sorry for my bad English
@@SourceOfKnowledgee Yes and it’s obviously expensive to go and watch the final...going by the video, that would mean 84% of the world wizard population attended the match and that doesn’t sound right. It could very well be the case but it would mean that poverty is rare in the wizarding world. Arthur only got tickets because of his connections at the Ministry.
Yes, this is what I think as well. A lot of people don't want to send their children away to boarding school. There may also be some small day schools in areas of higher wizarding population which are far away from the boarding schools. I could imagine (as it is all in imagination to begin with), for example, there being such a school in Seattle, Washington or Portland, Oregon.
@@lorenhowell5644 I doubt that the ministry of magic would allow homeschooling. Bc children aren't allowed to use magic out of their schools until they are of age. And doing homeschool would put the wizarding world at too much risk of being found out by muggles. The schools are the best place for them to learn bc they are the best protected places from muggles.
@@geremyshaw166 It’s been revealed that most wizards and witches study magic from home by OWL mailings and lessons. It is more economic, and viable. Remember that all Magic schools select their students, they don’t take all magicians. There are several small schools, not as prestigious, but they are apparently in flux and don’t always last. So the majority are practically homeschooled by a parent or official that are sanctioned by the respective governments
It's even stated in the books that not all of the wizarding community go to hogwarts or similar schools and the ministry can't tell who performed magic in a particular area they only "flag" areas where muggle born are residing or wizards in close proximity to muggles... like harry. So going off that and again stated in the books if the Weasley children performed magic outside of school the ministry couldn't prosecute because the magic could've been performed by arthur or molly
Came to comment the same thing, plus the figure for muggle students includes primary school and universities, neither of which are a thing in the wizard world. Taking both of those factors into account and allowing for muggle burns who would have been at a muggle primary school, I came to a figure of around 5000 witches and wizards in the UK.
Very interesting video, but I think you missed a few important points in your extrapolation: 1. Hogwarts students only study for 7 years, so comparing the number of pupils to the normal british school with maybe 12 years in average is not perfect. 2. Wizards and witches have a longer life span. So they may be staying at school 5% of there life (~140 years), while normal people spend 15% of there life at school (~80 years). 3. I think 1000 students would be a better starting point, because it is heavily rumored that hogwarts only has such a little number of students at the moment, because many of the "may-become-parents-for-the-current-generation" were killed in the first wizarding war (but only in Britain).
yeah but in the books Draco Malfoy says that his father wanted to put him at Drumstrang school first... so I don't think that all witches or wizards who live in Britain goes to Hogwarts... so it might be possible that it doesn't matter which school parents put their kids to study magic.
Did you take into your calculations that muggles start school at 5 or 6 but wizards 10 or 11 so if you think a even spread across all school years would almost double the numbers?
That and the fact Wizards live almost twice as long as muggles. ... AND that some children are homeschooled which Rowling herself said in another interview ;) some time ago I tried to estimate amount of wizards in GB and I decided it'd be around 10k.
@@martakeska5297 Rowling also said the cursed child is considered cannon but actually its absolutely dogshit and it doesnt make any sense how the charakters developed, for example harry hating his own child or cedric becoming a deatheater. She also said it was never explicitly mentiond that hermione is white while she is clearly described and drawen by her self multiple times as such. Dont get me wrong, i highly appreciate her work and the world she created but its full of logical flaws, especially the stuff she decided to add later on with interviews and twitter posts. Probably because she didnt think about these things while writing the story and when fans pointed it out she needed a way to fix the mistakes she made without admitting that these things are indeed mistakes she made. For me these things are just pulling stuff out her ass to fix her story. A good example is the basilisk. Why wouldnt Voldemord use it as a (probably the most powerful) weapon in his war or even made it an horcrux instead of the diary. If shes asked about it she probably comes up with stuff like the basilisk is too powerful to become a horcrux, the soul cant survive because of poison, voldemord didnt know living creatures can become a horcrux, the basilisk was bound to hogwards, while at school he didnt know what he was up to and later on he didnt have access und stuff like that while in reality it wouldnt make any sence for voldemord to not at least try to use the basilisk as a weapon considering how freaking powerful this thing is (it can wipe out whole armis with just a stare) and while writing her story she probably just didnt think about this.
@@monkeyboy275bobo8 Voldemort didn't make the basilisk a horcrux as it is difficult to make a living being a horcrux. It's in the books. You might argue that nagini was a horcrux, but it was made after the death of the basilisk and through great difficulty. Hp theory made many errors while making the estimate. Here's a question: do you really think that Harry had only 39 classmates considering that there were a lot of subjects at Hogwarts not only the standard charms, da, etc? I think it's unlikely that there were a 1000 students, but 60-70 per grade seems reasonable to me. Making the total 420-490 students. And offcourse, there are other factors as well, which I believe would have greatly skewed his figure to a lower value.
I would trust JK Rowling’s Judgment. For a lot of wizards, sending children off to school is just too inconvenient. Most families homeschool. Anyways, there definitely are wizards in the countries Without Wizarding schools.
I think the movies and JKR took artistic license in describing life at Hogwarts. I would imagine many students who sumply are not included in the story. A second factor would be the effect of the Great Wizarding War on the population of students and would reduce the number Harry's age. I would doubt the density of magicals is the same in all nations. To make a long story short these estimates are a real stab in the dark.
One immediate issue with that statistic is the number of students in UK schools includes those aged 5-10, so you are comparing an age group of 5-18 vs 11-18
The school in Uganda covers people from all over the African continent so their attendance would be way higher. Also the one in North America doesn't just to the United States but also Canada probably Mexico and the Caribbean, Same the one in Brazil will likely covers all of South America your numbers are wrong
I think i read in Pottermore that some schools (like Beauxbatons) accept magical folk from countries nearby, like Spain in this case. I think this should be taken into consideration when talking about the students of this type of school
I think we should consider the fact that around the beggining of the story, all of the students were born during the first wizarding war. This could be a valid reason for a lower birth rate which can explain a whole generation of fewer wizards and witches.
I would have added the fact that not all witches and wizards attend schools like these, the fact that some students have graduated already, of whom are not full fledged adults, and some are too young to even go to a wizarding school.
biggest thing you need to factor in is that the generation of students at hogwarts when we see it, is just as the world was recovering from first wizard war
But the life expectancy of wizards is much longer and the number of years wizards (7) and muggles (11-13) are much different. If you base your calculations in these numbers you get 3111,1111. Besides I think (from an economic POV) the poplulation ist still quite low, if not too low, to run the kind of society they have. There is a bank, the MoM (7 Departments, 10 floors) with employees, the diagon alley, with some very special stores (for reverence: a discounter needs 3000-6000 people in the area to earn money) and there is at least one wizard-only village with some infrastructure as well. If the wizard economy works in any way similar to ours, 3000 wizards would still be to low.
Several of the missed variables in your calculation are the losses in life in the UK from TWO recent wizarding wars against Grindelwald and Voldemort, as well as the fact that wizards tend to live up towards a 150 year old. Harry's generation of students was on the small side because a lot of people died.
The magical schools dont take students only from the countries they are in. For example Beauxbatons takes also from Belgium, Netherlands etc., Uagadou and Castelbruxo from their entire continents and Durmstrang is a private one that takes the best ones who sign up there (for example Krum was from Bulgaria which is nowhere near north). Also a lot of kids are homeschooled.
I think it would be closer to 1,080,000 because 100,000 witches and wizards went to the Quidditch World Cup and most magical students are homeschooled. i also think the 1,000 students was correct and we just don't know about the others. Witches and Wizards also star school at 10 or 11 while muggle schools start at 5 or 6
I can actually answer this! Oh wow so exciting! I did the census for the Department of Mysteries in 2020 and managed the database we used to track. Our best estimate, given we can't talk to everyone and not everyone replied to our owl, is that the magical population is between 8-10% of the world population. Of course, we have a bit of room for error, but it's so exciting when muggles do a study on something I've worked on that so few magical folk seem to care about!
With more wizards marrying muggles in every generation, surely the magical proportion of the population should be growing since magic is a dominant gene. x
Magic would be a recessive trait (a joke of a big red headed mage family) the fact that mages can be born of muggles and non-mages can be born from mages as well is not readily possible with dominant genes.
@@obsidianicalmusic6993 most traits are controlled by multiple genes hence sliding scales. There would not need to be "Pure" blood families if the trait were dominant. I would say that it probably also requires matched gene pairs as well (ex. xy); so, even if both parents (muggle) have the correct genes it will not automatically be a mudblood baby while two Mages who carry both genes may have them combine the wrong way (ex. xx) and produce a squib.
@@Amokra yeah, i reconsidered that by now too, mostly by talking to some other ppl, something as "new" as firing lightning from a stick is prooobably more complicated then one or two genes, but also considering most kids of wizards with muggles seem to also have powers at least, it seems to be semi-dominant. also, iirc squibs still had SOME magical traits, such as seeing for example dementors and other things? i dont remember that anymore though
@@obsidianicalmusic6993 her claiming to see the dementors at harry's case was not true a. she was not there and b. she hemmed and hawed when the judge said they didn't realize squibs could see dementors. I would imagine the higher the magic in the area the lower the scale needed to use abilities because wizards can use magic without wands but with low control; so, their are probably "muggles" that are capable to cast in high power places and the best wands this is where I would place squibs are still a "wizard-born muggle" but with knowledge on how to boost the very low latent abilities if any.
I appreciate the effort that went into this video and we all know JK and math are like oil and water but that seems like an unreasonably low number both worldwide and for the UK where the story takes place. I don't know how you can have a sprawling market area like Diagon Alley with many shops when you only have a population of 1900. Can you even have a functioning economy with that few people? Most of the shops seem to be doing great early in the series, even the luxury stores like the Quidditch shop and ice cream parlor. The place is packed whenever Harry is there in the early books. Is the whole wizard population there? Do they all show up every day and shop? Doesn't add up for me. It's mentioned several times that there's a pro Quidditch league in Britain and it's pretty popular. If each team has 7 players, say four subs in case of injury, and there are 10 teams in the league you're looking at 110 professional Quidditch players PLUS any coaches, team doctors, trainers, stadium staff, league staff, commissioner's office etc out of a population of 1900 people. That would be like if America had 19 million professional baseball players plus millions more who work for the league who are not athletes. AND you need fans to show up to these matches, or at the very least buy a lot of apparel from the team, or the teams and league make no money (no TV contracts!), which means they can't pay the players or the management, and then your league folds. Speaking of Quidditch, in Goblet of Fire they build a Quidditch stadium that can accommodate 100k fans plus vendors, support staff, Ministry officials, dignitaries from other nations etc. Also I think you can reasonably assume that MORE than 100k people showed up and that a lot of people (Irish because it's close to home) just came for the sake of being there and had no intention of hunting around for tickets. You see this a lot in college football where 90k+ people show up on the weekend of a big game but the stadium only holds 80k. A lot of people just want to hang out. I always assumed Harry's class and the ones plus and minus a few years around him were small because of how many people got wiped out in the first war. I know it was mentioned that several families were completely destroyed which must include their kids too. There hasn't been enough time for any kids born in a post war baby boom to reach Hogwarts age by the time Harry goes the first time. Harry was a year old when Voldy came calling. If you assume it takes another two years for things to get back to normal (or at least for young people to feel comfortable enough to start families) then it would at least be Harry's third year before the kids born after the war start coming to Hogwarts. The gang is also always ducking into unused classrooms which says to me that the castle is less populated now than it used to be. People could also be homeschooling their kids or sending them abroad. The fact that its mention in Deathly Hallows that Hogwarts becomes compulsory means there has to be a not insignificant number of people who do home school their kids or WOULD home school their kids in a time of crisis.
I have questioned why the United States, with a population 330 million, only has one wizarding school and that one is located in the Northeast. I think the US is getting shorted.
I think German students use Durmstrang or Beauxbatons. Durmstrang in particular serves a large number of countries including not just Bulgaria but also the other Balkan countries, Scandinavia, Finland, Estonia, Poland and St Petersburg, Russia.
@@economicinfo823 Perhaps one of the unmentioned schools is in California. There are plenty of mountains and deserrts, in fact much of the land in California is a moubtain or a desert especially in the Southern part of the State. Perhaps a western school of magic is in a desert. Some are pretty remote others like along I-10, I-15 and I-8 are heavily traveled.
I think your method is correct although you shouldn’t compare Hogwarts Students to total population of total of muggle students. As you include ages that Hogwarts doesn’t teach so maybe a change could be to use enrolment in middle schools and high schools (in the American context,I don’t know how the UK education system works). A further point of interest Hogwarts might be seeing lower amounts of children for last couple decades as due to demographic changes caused by the previous war of Voldemort. I think the method that you’re using is a decent estimate but it could always be improved upon.
In the potterverse we know there would be a population drop in the Uk in this period post the first Wizardry War. Which would change your numbers and percentages world wide.
@@PalkkiTT Durmstrang was founded by a Bulgarian witch and it's coat of arms is in a slavic style. This would suggest that the school was founded in the territory of the Russian Empire. Rowling has said that Durmstrang is located in Northern Scandinavia and part of northern Finland is geographically Scandinavia. And the school was founded in the 1800's when Finland was part of the Russian Empire. This mean that the "Käsivarsi" region in the Finnish Scandies IS THE MOST likely location of Durmstrang. Viktor Krum said at one point that the school is surrounded by mountains and the "Käsivarsi" region has many fells (tunturi) that are over a kilometer tall, so I think the base geography also checks out.
I think that 780K-1M sounds right to me. Coz I have always envisioned a ratio of 1:10000 for wizard to muggle ratio. Wizards live longer appx. 137.5 years according to the dept. of Divine Health of Britain. The wizard society seems to have a larger older population due to better living social conditions. They seem to have lower birth rates and yet very low infant mortality which maintains a stable population. The demographic curve would be unusual. Since the wizard world is a completely different society it’s hard to say if less muggle population means more wizards coz thanks to magic they can adapt to almost any environment ex British Ministry of Magic is thousands of feet deep underground and it also seems to me that modern wizards now prefer residing in populated areas near urban and city limits to enjoy the latest developments that muggle innovation has to offer. Another factor to consider is that the wizard maps are not drawn up the same way as muggles ex Transylvania a region part of Romania is a separate nation and so is Liechtenstein therefore its hard to determine the exact population per country or more accurately by region. If we divide the wizard world population by the 7 continents we get about ~111-140k per continent. If we take Europe as an example and further divide the earlier figures by the number of sovereign states and dependent autonomous regions in Europe we get ~2500K-3000K per state. However, in another story mentioned in the daily prophet concerning one of the oldest wizards alive named Barry Wee Willie Winkle sent out invitations to over 30M wizards to attend his 755th birthday. This could be an error on JK Rowling part as she as repeatedly stated that math isn’t her strongest suit but if it’s true we are looking at 3-4M wizards per continent and if we consider the same number of states in Europe as an example we are looking at 60K-86K per country. This number would seem a bit too high if only less than 1% of humans make up for wizard population.
Northern Europe a 100 million? What have you been smoking? Northern Europe contains Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia. The total population of this entire region is about 33.5 milion.
You have to take into account the number of magical families killed by death eaters during the blood wars, then add muggleborns. The number in great Britain would be smaller than other countries
When the first book starts a war has just ended and entire families were exterminated. Then there are also those who are home schooled. There are a lot of other factors that can diminish the number
I think it'd be closer to 300,000. I also feel like before the Wizarding wars it may have peaked around 500,000 but we don't know hoe many died and other stuff.
@@niklaspeltoniemi6440 for me it was uploaded before. Please don't hate. Your Comments was not necessary, nor good and it did no good. Please Comments if You are going to be Nice and positive please.
Of course the Hogwarts class size could be so small due to the stigma of Voldemort being trained there. As well as the fact that many wizarding family's in england perished durring the last wizarding war in Europe. Having also followed a global wizard war that would further reduce the class size to such a small number. I always assumed that the entire wizarding population was around 5 percent of the global population not including other magical beings. With nearly every muggle with the latent genetic potential to birth witch's or wizards due to centuries of marriages with muggles. Muggle borns existed even durring the 11th century durring the founding of Hogwarts. Like Genghis Khan the genetic characteristics would be passed down and distributed through the ages potentially 20 percent of the entire muggle population could have wizard ancestors.
I would say that the number is a bit higher, as even if you used your method I assume that some variables are influenced. 1. I think due to a longer lifespan the number of students to the whole polulation is lower than in the muggle world. 2. Most of the countries mentioned with a school are relatively small. Second multiple schools are not only attended by one country. Most are from multiple countries. Especially The Ugandan school is used by students form all over africa. I would assume Hogwarts is one of the oldest but smallest schools, as it has one of the smallest pool of people to draw from. If you used your method but with the population of africa instead of Uganda for the school and if one of the schools missing is in India or China the figures will be far higher.
You also need to take into account that school like Brazil and Illvermorny probably take students from the surrounding countries as well (ie Canadian students would also go to illvermorney)
Problem: the Pottermore reference for Magical schools says that these schools service Magical students from across their ENTIRE respective continents...not simply the countries that they reside in.
This is an interesting figure though during Harry's time there were probably many witches and wizards who immigrated to other countries in order to get away from Voldemort and his Death Eaters. Also in America before 1965 due to Rapport's law there were also witches and wizards who lived abroad because they were married to no majs and that was illegal in America at the time. Even in the various countries there would be more areas that would have a larger concentration of witches and wizards due to employment opportunities. For example in America New York City and the surrounding suburbs would have the largest population of witches and wizards since MACUSA is located there though we don't know where their wizarding hospital would be at. Massachusetts would also have a large population of witches and wizards due to Ilvemorney being located there. Though how would wizarding people support themselves and their families who lived in other locations since until 1965 they weren't allowed to have relations with non magical people even employment unless they were in a field where they could work remotely or for a mail order wizarding business. California however would have a large population of squibs with Hollywood in the southern part of the state and Silicon Valley in the northern part of the state. I would like to hear about a wizarding school in Australia/New Zealand since there hasn't been one mentioned in that part of the world yet.
just wanted to ask, snice you mentioned castelobruxo; WHO thought it was a good idea to have the only magic school in south america, in the ONLY south american country that DOESN'T speak spanish?!!
I think that 1,000 students is significantly more reasonable than 280. In re reading the series right now, and it definitely feels like, more rather than less. Also if there were only 280 students than the amount of wizards out there is VERY small, as there are only 7 schools total. Edit: also I hat to say it, but if J.K. Rowling said it, then it’s cannon. Unless of course it directly conflicts with what the books says, in which case the books are correct. Sooo technically I’m correct 😂
Something to note about Durmstrang, is that it takes students from far beyond its physical location, best exemplified by the fact that it's in Northern Europe but it was founded by a Bulgarian. It also has tons of people with Slavic names currently attending it/managing it, seemingly Bulgarians (e.g. Viktor Krum), so it would be logical to assume it to also be Bulgaria's wizarding school (in my opinion), and thus also take Bulgaria's population into account in these equations.
I think there is one figure you might not have factored in. It was mentioned somewhere because there are so few wizard of schools, many magical families choose to homeschool their children. I would not think EVERY British child would be given an acceptance letter to hogwarts even if there was only one school.. Additionally, to think that such a small population of England needed its own government and ministry doesn’t exactly add up. I’d think the figure is a lot larger. With such a small population in one country, and many being located so far apart, I’d hate to imagine all those “Long line of magical blood” families having such Low gene pools after generations and generations of only selectively breeding with wizards and witches who are only pure-blood. Such limited options, and think of 5-10 generations ago, how small the population of wizards might have been then.
7:43 106 million for northern Europe is way off, i googled for that and the first result i found did infact say 106 million but that included the UK which wouldn't make much sense, the actual population of Northern Europe is 27 million
@@MichaelPott Unofrtunately it's not really up to interpretation, thats like saying "i would count Brazil as being in North America" Germany is clearly always defined to be in Central Europe in every geography related piece of work
Exde that does make sense. But it was kinda late at night for me and my stupid brain just divided Europe into north and south completely neglecting Central Europe in the process. 😅
Even if the population is as high as 3000 in the UK, that doesn’t even come close to providing and/or necessitating the infrastructure and/or economy in place. How would so many retailers be in just Diagon Alley and Knockturn Alley, alone? Plus, the Ministry of Magic employs at least a couple hundred people. And then, the separation from muggles would be far less a thing, as it would be necessary to supplement any missing businesses in the magical community by going to muggle businesses. Groceries? Furniture? Non-magical ailments?
One potential flaw is that you did not take into account homeschooling :) Also, Rowlings talks about 11 big schools of magic, but I cannot believe that there is no small schools, with maybe between 10 and 100 students in a small communities around the world, or even in places like the UK made by parents unhappy with Hogwarts !
I think that your 100,000 is a little high, but in goblet if fire (supposedly) says 100,000 people shows up at the Quidditch World Cup. And even though quidditch is very popular, it’s unlikely that the population is below 1,000,000 however, this could be another case of Harry Potter exaggerating. 🤷♂️
There’s one issue with the calculation based on the schools I think should be pointed out: most of them don’t only accept students from the country they’re in. Beauxbatons for instance takes students from France, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, and all over Western Europe. Same with Uagadu in Africa.
I think around 140 students a year is plausible. Remember that Harry’s year and several years above them were born in middle of war which explains the low number.
I love the way you broke this down and really did the math for it but I feel like it’s hard to believe because I feel like the ministry of magic alone probably has around a 1000 staff members and not every wizard in the UK works at the ministry. Also wizard have a long lifetime
Here's a harry potter theory I would love to see a video on:could voldemort have gone back in time to kill lily potter before harry was conceived a la terminator style would that have changed the outcome of the Wizarding war?
Scandinavia, Finland, Iceland and the Baltic Countries are Northern Europe and have a combined population of roughly 32.5 million people. Not 106 million. Great video though :)
Love this video, and it tries to answer a question I didn't know I had. But the number feels low for some reason. I think you were right at the end: there are too many variables. What about the longer lifespan? And the fact that Harry's generation was considerably smaller than the previous ones? And those that are homeschooled? And the fact that many schools (such as the French one) service other countries (such as Italy, Spain, and Portugal.)? Just too many variables
Fact is, there are a lot of macro issues in the Harry Potter/Wizarding Universe that J.K. Rowling never bothered to work out. I think those issues just never mattered to her much... and while it would have mattered to me, I understand why it may not have concerned her. She was telling a story, her way, you get some things out of it, but not others. It is a fascinating conundrum though. One of the many things I wish Rowling would have addressed more, but alas, she left it to us. For now. Which is fine 🙂
Hey any chance you could go into more details about livelihood and economics of the wizarding world? I mean what career opportunities are their for Hogwarts graduates, what kind of income do they expect to earn, and is it paid in gold? Its common for students to say they want to work for the Ministry of Magic but with the wizard life expectancy id imagine positions like that are pretty competitive so what does everyone else do?
Ok so quick question. How does the Wizarding world work? The world is still on Earth but why has airplanes and satellites not see those areas. Is it in another magic area like in the train station? Was there an explanation for this?
I think your forgetting that most of the schools take in kids from other countries, like how the African school takes in kids across the whole continent and not just from the country where it’s located same thing for the Brazilian school.
I think that there were a lot less students in Harry’s time at Hogwarts because people’s parents were killed in the first Wizarding War. In Ootp when snape is taking his OWLS it says that there were around 100 desks in the great hall. So roughly 700 people in Hogwarts without war and stuff
The only thing I’d say is that you have to remember, Harry’s time at school, and what the audience is most familiar with, is typical of a average generation. Many British and Irish families were wiped out by the Deatheaters and Voldemort. By Harry’s time, there are far fewer witches and wizards than there would have been prior to Voldemort’s rise and the First Wizarding War. There might only have been approximately 200 pupils at Hogwarts during the 90s, but they could probably cater for 1000 in more typical generation.
I feel Hagrid's line, "his names been down since before he was born," implies limited space. So perhaps unless you're in at year 1 it's just unlikely you could transfer in any way after the first school year. So homeschool is likely real, and write in courses as well exist (filch in the office in book 2) but it's like self training for anything. You'll have gaps.
what about Squibs ? are they considered part of the wizard community ? if so the numbers could be considerably bigger. And thank you for the educational video ! it sure made me think and wonder allot about the HP universe
I'd like to think there are at least 1 million magical people otherwise there wouldn't be enough to cover up the magical animals. Plus everything else.
I think there are more wizards than 119 000. Hogwarts is half empty, because lot of families died, or are hiding, possibly even outside Britain, because of Voldemort. So there would be more British wizards, remember that almost 100 000 people attended the quidditch World Cup.
Even tho the math and logic used in this video is pretty solid, I Definitely think that there may be more than the total number you came up with. For reference, when Harry and Company went to the Quidditch World Cup in Goblet of Fire, the stadium was said to be filled with an estimated 100,000 witches and wizards. If we were to go with the number you came up with for the total world population of witches and wizards, then that would imply that nearly the ENTIRE magical human population convened in England in the year 1994 for the World Cup. It IS possible...but how unlikely is that??? The World Cup tickets were supposed to be extremely hard to come by and if 100,000 wizards were able get them with the entire population being just a bit higher than that, Surely accommodations could be made for a few thousand more. I would sooner like to go with the first figure you gave at the beginning of the video, 780,000. Or even if you halved that, you would have 390,000, which is still much more believable if we use the World Cup Attendance Estimate to determine the entire magical human population.
Wouldnt it stand tp reason that the countries that don't have a school of magic, would see their magical students attend in their nearest neighbouring country?
In your original calculation regarding muggle children did you limit your figure of 10 mil to only students between the ages of 11 and 17? Because if not your ratio maybe off as muggles spend about 8 more years in active education than wizards on average so there are more total active students.
Aren't the durmstrang from bulgaria? That is not northern europe...also which of the colores parts of the europe map you showed are you considering to be northern europe? The whole of eastern europe or scandinavia? Really didn't think this through I have to assume...
Spoiler Alert In the 4th book of Harry Potter series Arthur Weasley said to harry that the quidditch world cup event in the stadium could house 100000 people and it seems that some could not afford to attend it Which would be a lot more than those who could attend. So it's can't be that 75% or more of the total magical population in the world had attended the 422nd quidditch world cup at that time. So this proves that there's got to be much more magic folk in the world.
Hey everyone, thanks for watching. Made a mistake in the beginning, instead of 'One tenth of one percent' I should have said 'One one-hundredth of one percent'. Doesn't effect the final figure but worth mentioning.
What are your estimates for total Wizarding population size? Why? Let me know down below.
This theory assumes that everything is equal, which would mean the sorting hat would be limited as to the number of students that it can put in the individual houses. For example if Slitherin had reached a max of 40 students, someone who should be in Slithern would have to be placed in another house. The same applies for new enrollees. Look at college admissions. The number change each yr. Plus, not all students return. So, it doesn't seem to hold water to base the theory off assuming all is equal. It would make more sense to base it off the world cup
I may have to revisit my own calculations, but I figured more like 1000 magical folk in Britain and Ireland, and closer to 1 million worldwide. Then there are the variables, like squibs and magically potential genetic lines of muggles, wizarding school branches for highly populated regions, homeschoolers, those who refuse to participate in the magical educational system, etc. I also considered magical people who just don't measure up academically - do they go to magical trade schools (like Stan Shunpike)? I think the most labor-intensive role of the Magical Ministries is to herd all of these people to keep them quiet from muggle attention.
I don't think it's fair to count Harry's year, as just like Nick noticed that year the Gryffindor's newcomelings were very few. Maybe because of the Voldemorts's war. So the number of 1000 Hogwarts students should be true. + some homeschooled. Let's not forget, Hogwarts also accepts those from Ireland (Seamus). The life expectancy by wizards is somewhat higher too, about 115 years, I guess (Dumbledore's age). Compared to 80 years to UK's muggles. So 1000/7x115=16.428 Wizards and WItches in UK & Ireland (appr. 17.000 including the homeschooled). Now there are 70 mln in UK+IE, so the magic proportion is 17.000/70.000.000=0,000243=0,0243%. So the world population 7.800.000.000x0,000243=18.954.000. Btw Rowling never said that Hogwarts was the only school in the UK, only the best one. WHich applies there are more lesser schools. I always believed it's more like a population of a little town like between 25.000-50.000, the Hogsmead, DIagon ALley and Ministry of Magic with all those crowds of people make sense, Btw. if we taake into account that HP-Series take place in the 90s, the UK population was smaller, and therefore this proportion must be higher, so ....
creolegurl nola I’m sure that that’s just the average
Fifa world cup in 2018 3.03 million people attended, the population in 2018 was 7.594 billion. So 0.4% of the wold attended the work cup. So if 100,000 people attended the qudditch world cup and let say that's 0.4% of the wizarding population it means at that time the wizarding population was over 25 million people.
What do you think people?
I feel like these numbers are much too low, for a few reasons:
1. Look at how many witches and wizards work for the Ministry of Magic and MACUSA alone. Those are some huge institutions. I'd say the Ministry of Magic employs at least 1'000 people. An arbitrary number, yes, but with how many people we see running around there and how many different sections they have, I think it's a well founded guesstimate. And I doubt that a third of the UK's magical population works for the Ministry. Which makes me think the population has to be bigger. Same for other countries
2. Wizards and witches have a much longer lifespan than muggles, so we can't apply the same percentage of students compared to other folk.
3. The Quidditch World Cup we witnessed in Goblet of Fire is said to have around 100'000 attendees. Which makes me think your number of around 120'000 magical folk in the whole world is a little low. I doubt that 80% of all magical folk would be able to attend. There have to be some people working to keep wizarding society running. They can't all be on holiday at the same time
4. The UK is a highly developed country with muggles living everywhere. So magical enclaves would be rare, since muggles would have hunted them almost to extinction. But what about less developed countries, or less densely populated countries? Wizards could have larger enclaves there as it would be easier to hide. Like in the Amazon rainforest or Siberia.
Taking all that into account, I'd say the magical population worldwide is at least 1'000'000. Again an arbitrary number, but reasonable I think. However, I applaud your calculations. You took what numbers you had and went from there. My numbers are guesstimates at best
I agree. Also, since wizards would have died out if they hadn't married Muggles, more witches and wizards would have been reproduced, even if they aren't pureblood. I believe there is 800 students at Hogwarts because in the Quidditch final of Gryffindor and Slytherin in PoA, it says that 3/4 were supporting Gryffindor, but 200 were in green. Green is for Slytherin and would hence equal the 1/4, so 800 would work using that information from the book. Also, in the time of the founders, they handpicked students whereas at Hogwarts 1000 years later, they use the Quill of Acceptance to pick all students with capable magical ability. And of course, parents always had the choice to teach their children magic themselves.
Hence, I think your figure of one million would be more accurate. Maybe slightly less because they would be less breaches of the Statue of Secrecy. :)
I think that 780K-1M sounds right to me. Coz I have always thought of a ratio of 1:10000 for wizard to muggle ratio. Wizards live longer appx. 137.5 years according to the dept. of Divine Health of Britain. The wizard society seems to have a larger older population due to better living social conditions. They seem to have lower birth rates and yet very low infant mortality which maintains a stable population. The demographic curve would be unusual. Since the wizard world is a completely different society it’s hard to say if less muggle population means more wizards coz thanks to magic they can adapt anywhere to any environment ex British Ministry of Magic is thousands of feet underground and it seems to me that modern wizards now prefer residing in populated areas near urban and city limits to enjoy the latest developments that muggle innovation has to offer. Also the maps are not drawn up in the same way as muggles ex Transylvania a region part of Romania is a separate nation and so it Liechtenstein therefore its hard to determine the exact population per county or more accurately by region. If we divide the number by the 7 continents we get about ~140k per continent if we divide by the number of sovereign states and dependent autonomous regions in Europe we get ~3000K per state. However in another story mentioned in the daily prophet. One of the oldest wizards named Barry Wee Willie Winkle sent out invitations to over 30M wizards he knew to attend his 755th birthday. This could be an error on JK Rowling part as she as stated that math isn’t her strongest suit.
not forgetting the fact that the indian and chinese population is the biggest in the whole worlds including muggles so they both must have a really big population and also thatno event of any dark wizard was mentioned there so there must be little to no bloodshed and witch burning was not prominent in indian subcontinent but how it was considered that they were gifted by hindu god vishnu with these powers
Also… developed nations have much lower birth rates than developing ones, so using Britain as a baseline to calculate numbers for all the rest of the world is a bit silly.
@@RizzVeeyeah were leaving the Indian and Chinese wizarding worlds behind.
Didn't a HUNDRED THOUSAND witches and wizards come to the quidditch world cup in GOF So the population should surely be MUCH MORE than 100000!!!!!
I saw this figure as well when I reread Goblet of fire. I remembered the 28 pureblood family's left in the UK
U guys are so serious about Harry Potter movie , but unfortunately its not real
@@rajantiwari4034 don't be a fun ruiner
Crap Bag imagine it being real and just not being apart of it😭
Good catch!!
Rowling was right about the number of students at Hogwarts, there is less kids in Harry’s generation because the dark lord killed their families, therefore resulting in less students in those years, I think Rowling is talking about the average number of students, not just in Harry’s generation.
UMBRIDGE!!!!!!!
You’re my favorite Hogwarts High Inquisitor :)
I think you're right. The story does seem to reference A LOT of unused classrooms and spaces in the school which suggests a much higher capacity then what is currently there. Certain subjects are also mentioned in Pottermore that can be taught as there is a need, which seems to say that when there were more students, there were more classes and subjects available.
Its_ Me Why Thank you my dear
@@cocowang8568 kittens :33
I think the world wide wizarding population is higher than 119,000. Remember 422nd Quidditch world cup. There were approximately 100,000 people at the stadium. If 84% of population was at a single place, only 19000 left in the rest of the world. How does that sound???
I agree with you. I researched and somewhere in between 0,5 an 1% of the whole world population goes to world soccer in muggle world which would be comparable to quidditch, so it would mean that there are around 100.000.000 wizards worldwide (13% if muggle population). Sorry for my bad English
It is a World Cup tho
@@SourceOfKnowledgee Yes and it’s obviously expensive to go and watch the final...going by the video, that would mean 84% of the world wizard population attended the match and that doesn’t sound right. It could very well be the case but it would mean that poverty is rare in the wizarding world. Arthur only got tickets because of his connections at the Ministry.
weren't there muggles there as well though?
@@redstripedsocks5245 There was only one Muggle family who didn’t know what was going on. The same family the Death Eaters humiliated and tortured.
But a lot of magical folk are home schooled
Yes, this is what I think as well. A lot of people don't want to send their children away to boarding school. There may also be some small day schools in areas of higher wizarding population which are far away from the boarding schools. I could imagine (as it is all in imagination to begin with), for example, there being such a school in Seattle, Washington or Portland, Oregon.
@@lorenhowell5644 I doubt that the ministry of magic would allow homeschooling. Bc children aren't allowed to use magic out of their schools until they are of age. And doing homeschool would put the wizarding world at too much risk of being found out by muggles. The schools are the best place for them to learn bc they are the best protected places from muggles.
@@geremyshaw166 It’s been revealed that most wizards and witches study magic from home by OWL mailings and lessons. It is more economic, and viable. Remember that all Magic schools select their students, they don’t take all magicians. There are several small schools, not as prestigious, but they are apparently in flux and don’t always last. So the majority are practically homeschooled by a parent or official that are sanctioned by the respective governments
It's even stated in the books that not all of the wizarding community go to hogwarts or similar schools and the ministry can't tell who performed magic in a particular area they only "flag" areas where muggle born are residing or wizards in close proximity to muggles... like harry. So going off that and again stated in the books if the Weasley children performed magic outside of school the ministry couldn't prosecute because the magic could've been performed by arthur or molly
@@geremyshaw166 I thought everyone knows that the majority of wizards are homeschooled
5:00 Wizards live on average longer than muggles so shouldn't students account for a smaller percentage of the population
Came to comment the same thing, plus the figure for muggle students includes primary school and universities, neither of which are a thing in the wizard world. Taking both of those factors into account and allowing for muggle burns who would have been at a muggle primary school, I came to a figure of around 5000 witches and wizards in the UK.
Very interesting video, but I think you missed a few important points in your extrapolation:
1. Hogwarts students only study for 7 years, so comparing the number of pupils to the normal british school with maybe 12 years in average is not perfect.
2. Wizards and witches have a longer life span. So they may be staying at school 5% of there life (~140 years), while normal people spend 15% of there life at school (~80 years).
3. I think 1000 students would be a better starting point, because it is heavily rumored that hogwarts only has such a little number of students at the moment, because many of the "may-become-parents-for-the-current-generation" were killed in the first wizarding war (but only in Britain).
yeah but in the books Draco Malfoy says that his father wanted to put him at Drumstrang school first... so I don't think that all witches or wizards who live in Britain goes to Hogwarts... so it might be possible that it doesn't matter which school parents put their kids to study magic.
krum is also from Bulgaria which is isn't in Northern Europe
@@oxyo3531 And? I'm not English I'm from Northern Scandinavia, BUT I can still apply to Cambridge or Oxford ;)
im just adding another example to ur point
Did you take into your calculations that muggles start school at 5 or 6 but wizards 10 or 11 so if you think a even spread across all school years would almost double the numbers?
That and the fact Wizards live almost twice as long as muggles. ... AND that some children are homeschooled which Rowling herself said in another interview ;) some time ago I tried to estimate amount of wizards in GB and I decided it'd be around 10k.
@@martakeska5297 Rowling also said the cursed child is considered cannon but actually its absolutely dogshit and it doesnt make any sense how the charakters developed, for example harry hating his own child or cedric becoming a deatheater. She also said it was never explicitly mentiond that hermione is white while she is clearly described and drawen by her self multiple times as such.
Dont get me wrong, i highly appreciate her work and the world she created but its full of logical flaws, especially the stuff she decided to add later on with interviews and twitter posts. Probably because she didnt think about these things while writing the story and when fans pointed it out she needed a way to fix the mistakes she made without admitting that these things are indeed mistakes she made. For me these things are just pulling stuff out her ass to fix her story.
A good example is the basilisk. Why wouldnt Voldemord use it as a (probably the most powerful) weapon in his war or even made it an horcrux instead of the diary. If shes asked about it she probably comes up with stuff like the basilisk is too powerful to become a horcrux, the soul cant survive because of poison, voldemord didnt know living creatures can become a horcrux, the basilisk was bound to hogwards, while at school he didnt know what he was up to and later on he didnt have access und stuff like that while in reality it wouldnt make any sence for voldemord to not at least try to use the basilisk as a weapon considering how freaking powerful this thing is (it can wipe out whole armis with just a stare) and while writing her story she probably just didnt think about this.
@@monkeyboy275bobo8 Voldemort didn't make the basilisk a horcrux as it is difficult to make a living being a horcrux. It's in the books. You might argue that nagini was a horcrux, but it was made after the death of the basilisk and through great difficulty.
Hp theory made many errors while making the estimate. Here's a question: do you really think that Harry had only 39 classmates considering that there were a lot of subjects at Hogwarts not only the standard charms, da, etc? I think it's unlikely that there were a 1000 students, but 60-70 per grade seems reasonable to me. Making the total 420-490 students. And offcourse, there are other factors as well, which I believe would have greatly skewed his figure to a lower value.
@Shwetha M R they don't exist
@Shwetha M R ???????????? bruh what a question
I would trust JK Rowling’s Judgment. For a lot of wizards, sending children off to school is just too inconvenient. Most families homeschool. Anyways, there definitely are wizards in the countries Without Wizarding schools.
I think the movies and JKR took artistic license in describing life at Hogwarts. I would imagine many students who sumply are not included in the story. A second factor would be the effect of the Great Wizarding War on the population of students and would reduce the number Harry's age.
I would doubt the density of magicals is the same in all nations. To make a long story short these estimates are a real stab in the dark.
One immediate issue with that statistic is the number of students in UK schools includes those aged 5-10, so you are comparing an age group of 5-18 vs 11-18
The school in Uganda covers people from all over the African continent so their attendance would be way higher. Also the one in North America doesn't just to the United States but also Canada probably Mexico and the Caribbean, Same the one in Brazil will likely covers all of South America your numbers are wrong
I think i read in Pottermore that some schools (like Beauxbatons) accept magical folk from countries nearby, like Spain in this case. I think this should be taken into consideration when talking about the students of this type of school
Hogwarts also accepts students from Ireland such as Seamus Finnegan
I think we should consider the fact that around the beggining of the story, all of the students were born during the first wizarding war.
This could be a valid reason for a lower birth rate which can explain a whole generation of fewer wizards and witches.
Same thing happened in Europe after WW1 Few children per generation.
I would have added the fact that not all witches and wizards attend schools like these, the fact that some students have graduated already, of whom are not full fledged adults, and some are too young to even go to a wizarding school.
biggest thing you need to factor in is that the generation of students at hogwarts when we see it, is just as the world was recovering from first wizard war
But the life expectancy of wizards is much longer and the number of years wizards (7) and muggles (11-13) are much different. If you base your calculations in these numbers you get 3111,1111.
Besides I think (from an economic POV) the poplulation ist still quite low, if not too low, to run the kind of society they have. There is a bank, the MoM (7 Departments, 10 floors) with employees, the diagon alley, with some very special stores (for reverence: a discounter needs 3000-6000 people in the area to earn money) and there is at least one wizard-only village with some infrastructure as well. If the wizard economy works in any way similar to ours, 3000 wizards would still be to low.
Several of the missed variables in your calculation are the losses in life in the UK from TWO recent wizarding wars against Grindelwald and Voldemort, as well as the fact that wizards tend to live up towards a 150 year old. Harry's generation of students was on the small side because a lot of people died.
The magical schools dont take students only from the countries they are in. For example Beauxbatons takes also from Belgium, Netherlands etc., Uagadou and Castelbruxo from their entire continents and Durmstrang is a private one that takes the best ones who sign up there (for example Krum was from Bulgaria which is nowhere near north). Also a lot of kids are homeschooled.
I think it would be closer to 1,080,000 because 100,000 witches and wizards went to the Quidditch World Cup and most magical students are homeschooled. i also think the 1,000 students was correct and we just don't know about the others. Witches and Wizards also star school at 10 or 11 while muggle schools start at 5 or 6
I can actually answer this! Oh wow so exciting! I did the census for the Department of Mysteries in 2020 and managed the database we used to track. Our best estimate, given we can't talk to everyone and not everyone replied to our owl, is that the magical population is between 8-10% of the world population. Of course, we have a bit of room for error, but it's so exciting when muggles do a study on something I've worked on that so few magical folk seem to care about!
Yeah seems about right. Also how are you lot dealing with Coronavirus?
With more wizards marrying muggles in every generation, surely the magical proportion of the population should be growing since magic is a dominant gene. x
Magic would be a recessive trait (a joke of a big red headed mage family) the fact that mages can be born of muggles and non-mages can be born from mages as well is not readily possible with dominant genes.
@@Amokra maybe its like multiple genes?
@@obsidianicalmusic6993 most traits are controlled by multiple genes hence sliding scales. There would not need to be "Pure" blood families if the trait were dominant. I would say that it probably also requires matched gene pairs as well (ex. xy); so, even if both parents (muggle) have the correct genes it will not automatically be a mudblood baby while two Mages who carry both genes may have them combine the wrong way (ex. xx) and produce a squib.
@@Amokra yeah, i reconsidered that by now too, mostly by talking to some other ppl, something as "new" as firing lightning from a stick is prooobably more complicated then one or two genes, but also considering most kids of wizards with muggles seem to also have powers at least, it seems to be semi-dominant. also, iirc squibs still had SOME magical traits, such as seeing for example dementors and other things? i dont remember that anymore though
@@obsidianicalmusic6993 her claiming to see the dementors at harry's case was not true a. she was not there and b. she hemmed and hawed when the judge said they didn't realize squibs could see dementors.
I would imagine the higher the magic in the area the lower the scale needed to use abilities because wizards can use magic without wands but with low control; so, their are probably "muggles" that are capable to cast in high power places and the best wands this is where I would place squibs are still a "wizard-born muggle" but with knowledge on how to boost the very low latent abilities if any.
Now y'all know damn well that y'all can't trust JK Rowling for shit when it comes to math
I appreciate the effort that went into this video and we all know JK and math are like oil and water but that seems like an unreasonably low number both worldwide and for the UK where the story takes place. I don't know how you can have a sprawling market area like Diagon Alley with many shops when you only have a population of 1900. Can you even have a functioning economy with that few people? Most of the shops seem to be doing great early in the series, even the luxury stores like the Quidditch shop and ice cream parlor. The place is packed whenever Harry is there in the early books. Is the whole wizard population there? Do they all show up every day and shop? Doesn't add up for me.
It's mentioned several times that there's a pro Quidditch league in Britain and it's pretty popular. If each team has 7 players, say four subs in case of injury, and there are 10 teams in the league you're looking at 110 professional Quidditch players PLUS any coaches, team doctors, trainers, stadium staff, league staff, commissioner's office etc out of a population of 1900 people. That would be like if America had 19 million professional baseball players plus millions more who work for the league who are not athletes. AND you need fans to show up to these matches, or at the very least buy a lot of apparel from the team, or the teams and league make no money (no TV contracts!), which means they can't pay the players or the management, and then your league folds. Speaking of Quidditch, in Goblet of Fire they build a Quidditch stadium that can accommodate 100k fans plus vendors, support staff, Ministry officials, dignitaries from other nations etc. Also I think you can reasonably assume that MORE than 100k people showed up and that a lot of people (Irish because it's close to home) just came for the sake of being there and had no intention of hunting around for tickets. You see this a lot in college football where 90k+ people show up on the weekend of a big game but the stadium only holds 80k. A lot of people just want to hang out.
I always assumed Harry's class and the ones plus and minus a few years around him were small because of how many people got wiped out in the first war. I know it was mentioned that several families were completely destroyed which must include their kids too. There hasn't been enough time for any kids born in a post war baby boom to reach Hogwarts age by the time Harry goes the first time. Harry was a year old when Voldy came calling. If you assume it takes another two years for things to get back to normal (or at least for young people to feel comfortable enough to start families) then it would at least be Harry's third year before the kids born after the war start coming to Hogwarts. The gang is also always ducking into unused classrooms which says to me that the castle is less populated now than it used to be. People could also be homeschooling their kids or sending them abroad. The fact that its mention in Deathly Hallows that Hogwarts becomes compulsory means there has to be a not insignificant number of people who do home school their kids or WOULD home school their kids in a time of crisis.
I hate how all schools have such creative names but the Brazilian school is named "Wizard Castle"
mahoutokoro is also pretty uncreative
@@blancaescobar5895 that's a Japanese name isnt it lol
I have questioned why the United States, with a population 330 million, only has one wizarding school and that one is located in the Northeast. I think the US is getting shorted.
Bill Catchings there should be a German wizarding school
I think German students use Durmstrang or Beauxbatons. Durmstrang in particular serves a large number of countries including not just Bulgaria but also the other Balkan countries, Scandinavia, Finland, Estonia, Poland and St Petersburg, Russia.
More likely Beauxbatons
The east is the most populated area, though California seems to be the capital of the world, so I’m surprised it’s not there
@@economicinfo823
Perhaps one of the unmentioned schools is in California. There are plenty of mountains and deserrts, in fact much of the land in California is a moubtain or a desert especially in the Southern part of the State. Perhaps a western school of magic is in a desert. Some are pretty remote others like along I-10, I-15 and I-8 are heavily traveled.
And how do you take count of the witches or wizards that came from a muggle family?
If the schools are worldwide, I can already imagine some may operate like China, India, Australia, Singapore, Indonesia, etc... A lot can come to mind
Indonesia indeed
I think your method is correct although you shouldn’t compare Hogwarts Students to total population of total of muggle students. As you include ages that Hogwarts doesn’t teach so maybe a change could be to use enrolment in middle schools and high schools (in the American context,I don’t know how the UK education system works). A further point of interest Hogwarts might be seeing lower amounts of children for last couple decades as due to demographic changes caused by the previous war of Voldemort. I think the method that you’re using is a decent estimate but it could always be improved upon.
In the potterverse we know there would be a population drop in the Uk in this period post the first Wizardry War. Which would change your numbers and percentages world wide.
I want a Wizarding World book series based on Ilvermorny in America or a school based in Australia
I want a one about Durmstrang because my home country (Finland) is the most likely place for that school.
-NBI- National Bureau of Investigation that might be interesting
Me too because I live about 6 miles from ilvermorny
@@justsomeghostwithinterneta7296 Im from Finland Too! 🇫🇮 I would not say most likely. Its could be in 🇸🇪, 🇧🇻, 🇫🇮 or 🇷🇺. Likely but not most likely.
@@PalkkiTT Durmstrang was founded by a Bulgarian witch and it's coat of arms is in a slavic style. This would suggest that the school was founded in the territory of the Russian Empire. Rowling has said that Durmstrang is located in Northern Scandinavia and part of northern Finland is geographically Scandinavia. And the school was founded in the 1800's when Finland was part of the Russian Empire. This mean that the "Käsivarsi" region in the Finnish Scandies IS THE MOST likely location of Durmstrang.
Viktor Krum said at one point that the school is surrounded by mountains and the "Käsivarsi" region has many fells (tunturi) that are over a kilometer tall, so I think the base geography also checks out.
There is a theory that here isn't 1000 students at hogwarts when harry goes there because it have been a war
I think that 780K-1M sounds right to me. Coz I have always envisioned a ratio of 1:10000 for wizard to muggle ratio. Wizards live longer appx. 137.5 years according to the dept. of Divine Health of Britain. The wizard society seems to have a larger older population due to better living social conditions. They seem to have lower birth rates and yet very low infant mortality which maintains a stable population. The demographic curve would be unusual. Since the wizard world is a completely different society it’s hard to say if less muggle population means more wizards coz thanks to magic they can adapt to almost any environment ex British Ministry of Magic is thousands of feet deep underground and it also seems to me that modern wizards now prefer residing in populated areas near urban and city limits to enjoy the latest developments that muggle innovation has to offer. Another factor to consider is that the wizard maps are not drawn up the same way as muggles ex Transylvania a region part of Romania is a separate nation and so is Liechtenstein therefore its hard to determine the exact population per country or more accurately by region. If we divide the wizard world population by the 7 continents we get about ~111-140k per continent. If we take Europe as an example and further divide the earlier figures by the number of sovereign states and dependent autonomous regions in Europe we get ~2500K-3000K per state. However, in another story mentioned in the daily prophet concerning one of the oldest wizards alive named Barry Wee Willie Winkle sent out invitations to over 30M wizards to attend his 755th birthday. This could be an error on JK Rowling part as she as repeatedly stated that math isn’t her strongest suit but if it’s true we are looking at 3-4M wizards per continent and if we consider the same number of states in Europe as an example we are looking at 60K-86K per country. This number would seem a bit too high if only less than 1% of humans make up for wizard population.
Northern Europe a 100 million? What have you been smoking? Northern Europe contains Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia. The total population of this entire region is about 33.5 milion.
You have to take into account the number of magical families killed by death eaters during the blood wars, then add muggleborns. The number in great Britain would be smaller than other countries
When the first book starts a war has just ended and entire families were exterminated. Then there are also those who are home schooled. There are a lot of other factors that can diminish the number
I think it'd be closer to 300,000. I also feel like before the Wizarding wars it may have peaked around 500,000 but we don't know hoe many died and other stuff.
You've forgotten that witches and wizards have a longer life expectancy than most muggles.
I always thought about 0,5% of all people on earth were magically gifted.
Loved the video. I always aked myself this so it's really intresting! Keep up the good work. ❤️
This video literally came 3 minutes ago and is over 10minutes long
@@niklaspeltoniemi6440 for me it was uploaded before. Please don't hate. Your Comments was not necessary, nor good and it did no good. Please Comments if You are going to be Nice and positive please.
Of course the Hogwarts class size could be so small due to the stigma of Voldemort being trained there.
As well as the fact that many wizarding family's in england perished durring the last wizarding war in Europe. Having also followed a global wizard war that would further reduce the class size to such a small number.
I always assumed that the entire wizarding population was around 5 percent of the global population not including other magical beings.
With nearly every muggle with the latent genetic potential to birth witch's or wizards due to centuries of marriages with muggles. Muggle borns existed even durring the 11th century durring the founding of Hogwarts. Like Genghis Khan the genetic characteristics would be passed down and distributed through the ages potentially 20 percent of the entire muggle population could have wizard ancestors.
I would say that the number is a bit higher, as even if you used your method I assume that some variables are influenced.
1. I think due to a longer lifespan the number of students to the whole polulation is lower than in the muggle world.
2. Most of the countries mentioned with a school are relatively small. Second multiple schools are not only attended by one country. Most are from multiple countries. Especially The Ugandan school is used by students form all over africa. I would assume Hogwarts is one of the oldest but smallest schools, as it has one of the smallest pool of people to draw from. If you used your method but with the population of africa instead of Uganda for the school and if one of the schools missing is in India or China the figures will be far higher.
You also need to take into account that school like Brazil and Illvermorny probably take students from the surrounding countries as well (ie Canadian students would also go to illvermorney)
Problem: the Pottermore reference for Magical schools says that these schools service Magical students from across their ENTIRE respective continents...not simply the countries that they reside in.
This is an interesting figure though during Harry's time there were probably many witches and wizards who immigrated to other countries in order to get away from Voldemort and his Death Eaters. Also in America before 1965 due to Rapport's law there were also witches and wizards who lived abroad because they were married to no majs and that was illegal in America at the time. Even in the various countries there would be more areas that would have a larger concentration of witches and wizards due to employment opportunities. For example in America New York City and the surrounding suburbs would have the largest population of witches and wizards since MACUSA is located there though we don't know where their wizarding hospital would be at. Massachusetts would also have a large population of witches and wizards due to Ilvemorney being located there. Though how would wizarding people support themselves and their families who lived in other locations since until 1965 they weren't allowed to have relations with non magical people even employment unless they were in a field where they could work remotely or for a mail order wizarding business. California however would have a large population of squibs with Hollywood in the southern part of the state and Silicon Valley in the northern part of the state. I would like to hear about a wizarding school in Australia/New Zealand since there hasn't been one mentioned in that part of the world yet.
I literally just had this question yesterday when I was thinking why wizards don't take over the word
me too
They wouldn’t because of the statute of secrecy.
That’s what grindewald, Voldemort and probably many other dark wizards were trying to do.
The Battle of Hogwarts made me question the population Wizards World.
I know what you mean
just wanted to ask, snice you mentioned castelobruxo; WHO thought it was a good idea to have the only magic school in south america, in the ONLY south american country that DOESN'T speak spanish?!!
I think that 1,000 students is significantly more reasonable than 280. In re reading the series right now, and it definitely feels like, more rather than less. Also if there were only 280 students than the amount of wizards out there is VERY small, as there are only 7 schools total.
Edit: also I hat to say it, but if J.K. Rowling said it, then it’s cannon. Unless of course it directly conflicts with what the books says, in which case the books are correct. Sooo technically I’m correct 😂
Something to note about Durmstrang, is that it takes students from far beyond its physical location, best exemplified by the fact that it's in Northern Europe but it was founded by a Bulgarian. It also has tons of people with Slavic names currently attending it/managing it, seemingly Bulgarians (e.g. Viktor Krum), so it would be logical to assume it to also be Bulgaria's wizarding school (in my opinion), and thus also take Bulgaria's population into account in these equations.
I think there is one figure you might not have factored in. It was mentioned somewhere because there are so few wizard of schools, many magical families choose to homeschool their children. I would not think EVERY British child would be given an acceptance letter to hogwarts even if there was only one school..
Additionally, to think that such a small population of England needed its own government and ministry doesn’t exactly add up. I’d think the figure is a lot larger.
With such a small population in one country, and many being located so far apart, I’d hate to imagine all those “Long line of magical blood” families having such Low gene pools after generations and generations of only selectively breeding with wizards and witches who are only pure-blood. Such limited options, and think of 5-10 generations ago, how small the population of wizards might have been then.
7:43
106 million for northern Europe is way off, i googled for that and the first result i found did infact say 106 million but that included the UK which wouldn't make much sense, the actual population of Northern Europe is 27 million
Exde Actually I would count Germany as being in northern Europe as well, which already has a population of round about 82 million. 🤔
@@MichaelPott Unofrtunately it's not really up to interpretation, thats like saying "i would count Brazil as being in North America"
Germany is clearly always defined to be in Central Europe in every geography related piece of work
Exde that does make sense. But it was kinda late at night for me and my stupid brain just divided Europe into north and south completely neglecting Central Europe in the process. 😅
Even if the population is as high as 3000 in the UK, that doesn’t even come close to providing and/or necessitating the infrastructure and/or economy in place. How would so many retailers be in just Diagon Alley and Knockturn Alley, alone? Plus, the Ministry of Magic employs at least a couple hundred people.
And then, the separation from muggles would be far less a thing, as it would be necessary to supplement any missing businesses in the magical community by going to muggle businesses. Groceries? Furniture? Non-magical ailments?
One potential flaw is that you did not take into account homeschooling :) Also, Rowlings talks about 11 big schools of magic, but I cannot believe that there is no small schools, with maybe between 10 and 100 students in a small communities around the world, or even in places like the UK made by parents unhappy with Hogwarts !
I think that your 100,000 is a little high, but in goblet if fire (supposedly) says 100,000 people shows up at the Quidditch World Cup. And even though quidditch is very popular, it’s unlikely that the population is below 1,000,000 however, this could be another case of Harry Potter exaggerating. 🤷♂️
There’s one issue with the calculation based on the schools I think should be pointed out: most of them don’t only accept students from the country they’re in. Beauxbatons for instance takes students from France, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, and all over Western Europe. Same with Uagadu in Africa.
Illevemorny could also accept students from Canada as well.
I think around 140 students a year is plausible. Remember that Harry’s year and several years above them were born in middle of war which explains the low number.
wait a second, the wizarding gene seems to be a dominant gene, so theoretically the fraction of the population that are wizards should constantly rise
250 in each house. You are making an assumption that the number is evenly distributed among the houses.
Great video, I like the new intro. Could you do a video on the knight bus?
Who said we don't learn Geography, Math and Demography with Harry Potter? Thank you for doing this video it seemed like a lot of work
I love the way you broke this down and really did the math for it but I feel like it’s hard to believe because I feel like the ministry of magic alone probably has around a 1000 staff members and not every wizard in the UK works at the ministry. Also wizard have a long lifetime
HEEEYYYY WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OLD INTRO MUSIC, this version doesnt give me goosebumps
I always imagined that there’d be around 6-8 million wizard and witches worldwide.
I mean cool but thats just a random guess
I always wondered this? Thank you for covering!
Here's a harry potter theory I would love to see a video on:could voldemort have gone back in time to kill lily potter before harry was conceived a la terminator style would that have changed the outcome of the Wizarding war?
Im A wizard too :)
I was listening the lily's theme and this video popped up
Scandinavia, Finland, Iceland and the Baltic Countries are Northern Europe and have a combined population of roughly 32.5 million people. Not 106 million. Great video though :)
Love this video, and it tries to answer a question I didn't know I had. But the number feels low for some reason.
I think you were right at the end: there are too many variables.
What about the longer lifespan? And the fact that Harry's generation was considerably smaller than the previous ones? And those that are homeschooled? And the fact that many schools (such as the French one) service other countries (such as Italy, Spain, and Portugal.)?
Just too many variables
Fact is, there are a lot of macro issues in the Harry Potter/Wizarding Universe that J.K. Rowling never bothered to work out. I think those issues just never mattered to her much... and while it would have mattered to me, I understand why it may not have concerned her. She was telling a story, her way, you get some things out of it, but not others.
It is a fascinating conundrum though. One of the many things I wish Rowling would have addressed more, but alas, she left it to us. For now. Which is fine 🙂
Hey any chance you could go into more details about livelihood and economics of the wizarding world? I mean what career opportunities are their for Hogwarts graduates, what kind of income do they expect to earn, and is it paid in gold?
Its common for students to say they want to work for the Ministry of Magic but with the wizard life expectancy id imagine positions like that are pretty competitive so what does everyone else do?
Nice intro!
Can you make a video about wizarding schools?
There should also be a Wizard school in planet Agartha. That's the planet inside the Earth!
Ok so quick question. How does the Wizarding world work? The world is still on Earth but why has airplanes and satellites not see those areas. Is it in another magic area like in the train station? Was there an explanation for this?
Nice new intro
I think your forgetting that most of the schools take in kids from other countries, like how the African school takes in kids across the whole continent and not just from the country where it’s located same thing for the Brazilian school.
I think that there were a lot less students in Harry’s time at Hogwarts because people’s parents were killed in the first Wizarding War. In Ootp when snape is taking his OWLS it says that there were around 100 desks in the great hall. So roughly 700 people in Hogwarts without war and stuff
The only thing I’d say is that you have to remember, Harry’s time at school, and what the audience is most familiar with, is typical of a average generation. Many British and Irish families were wiped out by the Deatheaters and Voldemort. By Harry’s time, there are far fewer witches and wizards than there would have been prior to Voldemort’s rise and the First Wizarding War. There might only have been approximately 200 pupils at Hogwarts during the 90s, but they could probably cater for 1000 in more typical generation.
Whoa! That new opening is so awesome I think! They’re getting better all the time!!
I appreciate how you show your math.
I feel Hagrid's line, "his names been down since before he was born," implies limited space. So perhaps unless you're in at year 1 it's just unlikely you could transfer in any way after the first school year. So homeschool is likely real, and write in courses as well exist (filch in the office in book 2) but it's like self training for anything. You'll have gaps.
1/10 of 1% = 0.1 * 0.01 = 0.001; 0.001 * 7.800.000.000 = 7.800.000;
in words: one tenth of one percent equals to seven point eight MILLION people!!
Looks like someone did some research, great video!
what about Squibs ? are they considered part of the wizard community ? if so the numbers could be considerably bigger. And thank you for the educational video ! it sure made me think and wonder allot about the HP universe
I'd like to think there are at least 1 million magical people otherwise there wouldn't be enough to cover up the magical animals. Plus everything else.
I think there are more wizards than 119 000.
Hogwarts is half empty, because lot of families died, or are hiding, possibly even outside Britain, because of Voldemort.
So there would be more British wizards, remember that almost 100 000 people attended the quidditch World Cup.
So there’d be like 5 wizards in my town and 40 in my country 🤣🤣
Could you do a video on technology in the wizarding world?
Even tho the math and logic used in this video is pretty solid, I Definitely think that there may be more than the total number you came up with. For reference, when Harry and Company went to the Quidditch World Cup in Goblet of Fire, the stadium was said to be filled with an estimated 100,000 witches and wizards. If we were to go with the number you came up with for the total world population of witches and wizards, then that would imply that nearly the ENTIRE magical human population convened in England in the year 1994 for the World Cup. It IS possible...but how unlikely is that??? The World Cup tickets were supposed to be extremely hard to come by and if 100,000 wizards were able get them with the entire population being just a bit higher than that, Surely accommodations could be made for a few thousand more.
I would sooner like to go with the first figure you gave at the beginning of the video, 780,000. Or even if you halved that, you would have 390,000, which is still much more believable if we use the World Cup Attendance Estimate to determine the entire magical human population.
Really appreciate your content 😊
Could you make a version of this video for Covid 19 homeschoolers? That would be an advanced but light-hearted lesson in percentages.
You made a mistake with Uagadou, they take students from all over Africa so you should have taken that to account
But overall great video
Wouldnt it stand tp reason that the countries that don't have a school of magic, would see their magical students attend in their nearest neighbouring country?
What about the witches and wizards who are home schooled ??
In your original calculation regarding muggle children did you limit your figure of 10 mil to only students between the ages of 11 and 17? Because if not your ratio maybe off as muggles spend about 8 more years in active education than wizards on average so there are more total active students.
Aren't the durmstrang from bulgaria? That is not northern europe...also which of the colores parts of the europe map you showed are you considering to be northern europe? The whole of eastern europe or scandinavia? Really didn't think this through I have to assume...
Spoiler Alert
In the 4th book of Harry Potter series
Arthur Weasley said to harry that the quidditch world cup event in the stadium could house 100000 people and it seems that some could not afford to attend it Which would be a lot more than those who could attend. So it's can't be that 75% or more of the total magical population in the world had attended the 422nd quidditch world cup at that time. So this proves that there's got to be much more magic folk in the world.