03:05 Starts 05:37 Steps 11:05 Instruments 13:54 Portfolio goals 19:16 Portfolio goals | What is risk? 21:11 Expected return 22:33 Expected return | Instruments 26:33 Expected return | Efficient frontier 27:54 Expected return | Efficient frontier | How to find it? 28:53 Expected return | Special cases with two assets 29:49 Expected return | Special cases with two assets | Case 1 31:40 Expected return | Special cases with two assets | Case 2 34:28 Expected return | Special cases with two assets | Case 3 34:54 Expected return | Special cases with two assets | Case 4 35:53 Expected return | Special cases with two assets | Case 5 39:50 Expected return | Special cases with two assets | Case 6 40:44 Expected return | Special cases with two assets | Case 7 41:22 Expected return | Special cases with three assets 43:09 Expected return | Beta and sharpe ratio 46:59 Portfolio allocation 51:26 Portfolio allocation | Diversification 56:22 Risk parity 01:00:15 Risk parity | Sharpe ratio
50:27 = Nice explanation of the benefit of adopting risk parity + periodic rebalancing, with an example of scenario having 2 perfectly negatively correlated assets which are up 50% of the years each.
Would that dude be saying shit if he wasn't getting .013% of the criminal amount of money people pay? supply and demand, or i demand your compliance or you will be ruined.
27:50 Efficient Frontier Kelly's Formula 45:30 Risk Parity: 59:30 1:16:00 forecasting by looking at only historical data is like driving and only looking in the rearview mirror
Using historical data and statistics helps understand the risk and the market's sentiment regarding a stock during certain times. The only way to look forward is considering the company's strategy and truly understanding its currently available resources. I work on a hedging team which is basically portfolio management and I would never use any of the hardcore math I've learned to select a single stock.
@@soccerplayer2277 he is using the formula to figure out a diversification strategy based on SD and Ro of previously selected assets. Are you paying attention?
@@kylelarson5074 I was and I am fundamentally disagreeing with him. It is not a forecast, these statistics are estimators and are just being assumed to carry forward into the future. Rho is not a bad estimator for some purposes but implied volatility proves much better than SD of historical prices as it is usually based on the market's forecasts of the stock. Volatility during these past 2 years has been through the roof, partially due to trade conflicts and the expanding global economy. Would I use these historical volatility estimates to develop a portfolio for the next 2 years, where trade agreements are likely settled and the global economy possibly begins contracting? No. What I would do is forecast stocks individually, select all my assets and then determine the optimal weightings of the assets to produce the largest sharpe ratio of the portfolio.
1. Understand your goals 17:02 University Endowment 17:33 Pension Fund - What is timeframe when workers retire and need to draw from the pension? 2. Be clear about how much risk you can take 19:20 What is risk? 26:08 Risk-reward investment map 27:50 Efficient Frontier 3. Building a Model 47:45 Plotting portfolio allocation 50:34 Risk Parity
Sincere appreciation to MIT for Sharing this lecture. I have never been to university but now I am able to learn from the greatest minds from your channel. Thank you 🙏
This is so cool, I could never afford going to MIT, I live in a third world country Honduras. But I wish I could get this type of high quality education
@@AstorSkywalkerMIT is one of the least expensive colleges in all of America. If you are talented and have displayed it creatively and academically, the cost is almost free.
if you don't have a lot of time; skip the part where he makes a point on how diversification is key - and go straight to the example at 1:05:00, where he makes a point of not always doing what everybody else is doing. And then ask yourself: do you really believe that the best option is to be be buying the same index-funds as everybody else right now?
This is not meant to be insulting... but this guy's voice is so calming, he could distribute these lectures and brand them as "Economy Lessons to put your restless mind at ease". This is like a sleep aid... it's awesome. I will be a master of Modern Portfolio theory in a decade.
I work in a front office investment control desk for one of Europe's largest asset managers. Found this very interesting, normally what you find is a degree of variance from the benchmark within equities, even then internal house rules will dictate only a minimal degree of variance. You'll find a lot of portfolios with have buckets for different asset classes (depending on the mandate), in particular, money market to sweep up excess cash to put the money to work whilst the PM picks securities. This presentation is really covering MAI funds. Great video and fantastic lecturer.
Thank you so much for providing this invaluable value to aspiring minds. This is the greatest service to humanity. The Professor is such an excellent teacher and it is amazing that we can listen to him from any part of the world. Many thanks, MIT and Prof.
Diversification should not only apply to financials after all. A greater diversification of skills and people should lead to a more stable society, “echo chambers” are not good or useful for a society.
this is how u stay alive across markets... great video with replay value. should be watched during this greater bull run as the most dangerous levels everyone is blind....
The professor is very smart and nice because he wants to show that causality is missing in classical portfolio optimization and even in risk parity paradigm. beautiful video.
how do you feel now knowing you can just yolo half your net worth into weekly spy calls and it will probably beat anything these strategies can produce in 10 years lmao
@@SebastianRodriguez-hk2jiI’d say this would be a hard “nope” for me as a professional trader for one obvious reason: it is a fact that on a daily basis, the relationship between the S&P closing up or down for the day is 50/50… so 50% of the time the market closes up, and 50% of the time it closes down… even in a modest bullish trend… given this knowledge, yoloing your net worth on SPY calls is NOT a good idea because the overwhelming odds are that you very well may be the one sad bastard who bought/sold them when the SPY decides for whatever reason that it wants to make a little pullback from which it will then take 2 months to recover from. Happens all the time… often enough for me to make a great living lol (I trade ES futures). Writing this on November 23rd, 2023, after the S&P posted one of the craziest rallies ever recorded. Straight line up, no downwards action - 14 green days with only 3 tiny little wicky red days… after a month when people thought Black Monday was going to repeat itself… now I’m sure more than a few people yolod the SPY puts that week before we began this rally and they most likely lost everything they had in their account, and some likely lost even more than they had… so… that’s my 2 cents on this strategy. Keep the yoloing strictly for Wall St Bets degeneracy.
35:17 Why does the return stay the same if they are negatively correlated and you invest 50:50 in both? Wouldn't it be 0? Edit: I'm just stupid. The return value is an expected longterm average.
@@mudderdrummer It's probably something like this www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=y+%3D+sin%280.20*x%29+%2B+0.06*x++and+y+%3D+sin%280.20*x+%2B+pi%29+%2B+0.06*x
He didn't change R1 and R2, so return or y-axis doesn't change (i.e. both assets still perform equally well in terms of return). He changed the correlation which affects variance (x-axis) and in this case a negative correlation results in 0 variance at a 50/50 split
On the contrarily, Warren, Munger and Cuban do not suggest diversification of portfolio. Diversification is useful when: - 1. Rising asset will fall in future and falling asset will rise in future. Applying strategy in consecutive years : Putting more weight on falling one and decreasing weight on rising one. So that, when the trend will change, you will make more profit. Explained at 55th min in the video. 2. Possibility of trend change is high when everyone applying same optimal strategy. 3. Minimise loss when trend reverse Approach I follow is :- Value investing : Invest when price of asset is lower than intrinsic value and sell when price of asset is above its intrinsic value. There is one approach called Momentum investing : Grab the momentum of the stock and go in the flow. This may be risky. Any suggestion is appreciated.
For people wondering why variance and mean of coin flip is one. Let us assume a fair coin. P(Heads) = P(Tails) = 0.5. Assume you get +1 if you land heads and -1 if you land tails. Mean = 1*0.5 + (-1) * 0.5 =0. Variance = E(X- mean)^2. Variance = E(X^2) as mean is zero. E(X^2) = 1*1*0.5 + (-1)(-1)*0.5 = 1. Hence standard deviation is also 1.
Jake is wrong in a few regards: 1) Cash has a zero to negative return based how much money the reserve bank prints each year or the CPI. Historically cash has devalued about 7% a year based on M2, or conservatively, at least the CPI. Cash, by definition cannot have a positive return. 2) A lotteries expected return is based on the current jackpot sometime jackpots get high enough that they become value for money bets - so the return and standard deviation would be higher than 1 (100%). 3) Analysis has shown that only the best VCs (top 25%) do better than ETFs, and that most VCs actually perform worse than the stock market. ETFs as a whole should perform almost exactly the same as stocks, though sectors may under/over perform the general market. 4) The return on real estate has historically been lower than stocks.
Andrew H it was shortly after he said his portfolio was conservative. He reference back to the life stage graph and said something to the effect of, his main goal right now In his stage is protecting principal
Next time just text or email yourself a link with the start time. This is asinine way of saving your place. Its been 3 weeks. Either you finished the lecture or you didn't, time to remove this personal use time stamp.
As Clear as his chalk markings made for his Diagrams. I really would of understood him if he hadn't of kept not really getting to the point!. And his accent was hard for me to understand. Also I don't know if there is other lectures that goes with this one but I felt his class knew what he meant, allowing them to complete the process of understanding what he is teaching them!!?🤗🤔🧐 No Doubting the Lecturers Intelligence!. And I could probably get it!;if I watched this lecture a couple more Times!!😄🤓🤡🤑🤯🤫🤔🤫
As a sports bettor I was interested to see him talking about Kelly's formula 45:30 then he starts to talk about -100% (negative) probabilities :D Okay, he corrected himself after a while but still anyone who actually is used to use probabilities don't think even a millisecond that probabilities could be negative.
I feel like i just had the craziest realization. Kids cant learn shit in schools in america pre college is cause teachers have a quota they have to meet and they pre write things on the board and rush through slides and the kids dont have a chance to understand anything thoroughly its just a memory game. This guy gets it about taking his time and writing through everything. I like him.
every industry have their own agenda, there is conflict of interest. best way to survive & thrive in the financial markets is build your own infrastructure.. but that just one part of human needs to fullfil freedom (act) and free will (thoughts) there's more human needs like psychological etc.. thats is the optimised version of life which bring clarity and value
I wish my Professors approach their lectures like this. Trying their best to simplify the concepts of a new topic. All my professor does is follow the textbook lol
Probably because their course coordinators and department chairs make them cover specific topics from the book. In upper division courses, professors tend to have more flexibility.
Compared to the stocks communities in the reddit ,Facebook which just sold the news there,never taught you the basics of investment,how to analysis the market,you just like have no idea how to invest your money besides following the news or the financial advices ,this guy at least taught you the basics of investment,I really appreciate it
Good Portfolio Management is the only way to attain success in the stock market. With the help of an experienced portfolio manager i know that is possible.
you are absolutely correct, i made $59850 in total last year because i had a good portfolio manager. Mrs Lilian Wan grew my portfolio from $3000 i started with to that amount.
The Stock Market is a liquidated market that has been on for ages, its only beneficial to those who follow through the right procedure. I have been investing in it and i get a good return on investment.
Investing in securities is really a matter of probability. It is very probable that shares of JNJ and PG will pay you dividends each quarter and it is very probable that each company will raise the dividend amount paid to you each year. Likewise, it is very probable that a highyield bond fund will pay you more than a governement bond fund but the underlying asset value of the high yield fund will fluctuate. Given these (very simple) examples of probability, we invest (not gamble) our resources accordingly. If we have a long time horizon and do not react emotionally to crashes, pandemics and the like, the concept of probability will reward us. First it will reward us on a somewhat gradual basis as the years go by and then often on an exponential basis as the investments we made initially (and reinvested dividends) really gain traction. I invested $2000 in a high yield bond fund 20 years ago and reinvested all income; the fund now returns $2600 per year. This is not rocket science.
53:47 Prof Xia says "if your stock did well, sell some of that so you have more of the stock that lost money; in my example the loser doubles and the one that doubles loses it's gains." This is not a good trading tactic, outside of this year; when stimulus propped up markets.
The truth is that rebalancing does not guarantee your returns will improve; they might or might not improve them depending on what will happen. They might even diminish. What rebalancing offers for sure, though, is lessening the impact of the risk of permanent loss of wealth, if you are unlucky to have bet on a horse that dies in the middle of the race (i.e. a company you own goes bankrupt).
Studying and applying the mathematical side to making decisions with your portfolio is great but at the end of the day, it's the psychology of the individual that can drive someone to make a rash decision.
The best practice in the capital markets is to invest for most returns with minimum possible risk. Although I'd like to add that no amount of quants can predict the stock prices in the future. Frankly government policies do effect the rise and fall of stocks, so in a way we can say that policy makers do have the power to push and pull the market.
55:36 I think his assumption is wrong when combining 50/50 of A and B, in Year 1 50%A will be increased from $50 to $100 and 50%B will be decreased from $50 to $25 so the total of the portfolio will be increased from $100 to $125 => increasing 25% but when in Year 2, 50%A will be decreased from $100 to $50 and 50%B will be increased from $25 to $50 so that the total of Portfolio = $100=> decreasing 20% in Year 2
It's a real conundrum. Lectures you find online from MIT, Stanford, Harvord, etc, are so much better than the usual lecture you'd find at your own college. It's hard to even show up and listen. And in the end, why should you? Really goes to show that large components of the university system are obsolete.
Prof Xia, I stumbled onto your 16. PM video and surprised to read the negative comments. So, here is a real life portfolio, created using Markowitz portfolio therory explained by Francis and Archer. This portfolio was created based on the Dogs of the Dow starting Jan 1, 2018. The optimal weights are Verizon 2.03%, IBM 5.17%, Pfizer 18.18%, Exxon Mobile 11.87%, Chevron 12.40%, Merck 9.38%, Coca-Cola 6.67%, Cisco 13.75%, P&G 7.87% GE 12.67%. Even with big losses from Exxon, Cisco and GE the ROR as 12/13/2018 is +34.57%.
@@xdman20005 it proves a 34.5% return, the next question is, can we repeat this consistently over time. If so then it's a model that's implemented and monitored very closely.
Tony Lozano Tony Lozano dogs of the Dow isn’t a set portfolio rather it’s a portfolio that is made up of the 10 Dow component companies that have the biggest dividend that year. Every year on the first trading day in January investors following this theory would rebalance their portfolios according to that years data. It’s just one of those portfolios that just happen to work historically for no real reason.
22:45 can someone explain to me why cash has a positive return? I always thought it had a negative return in an inflationary economy, but I assume this guy knows a lot more than me.
It depends on the definition. Either he means very liquid assets such as short term bonds or day to day banking deposits, which can be theoretically turned into cash very quickly if needed. Or he refers to the hypothetical liquidity premium cash gives you, i.e. the possibility to use cash as a means of transaction is seen as a positive return. Keynes set this hypothetical return at round about 3%. But I think you are doing better with the first one
01:18:00 can be applied to almost decisions in adulthood or at work. what is the difference between human and a computer? human can analyze based on past trends of events so that it can derive a more holistic solution
Anyone follow the question at 1:19:20? Money management also involves HR and managing talent and people and moving forward in their careers? I think that's obvious and goes without saying? smh.
Cash has inherent risk relative to volatility, i.e inflation, decoupling of the markets that served as the basis for the theory (acceptance and conversion, petrodollar, swift and other hegemonic programs).
This is a not about beating an index, by a proper asset allocation that prevent layman blow up their account within 2 weeks if they use margin, and also reduce the maximum drawdown and the exposure risk to the market
Well at 1:20:00 the top right chart, I find no major issue with one that lays out as such, however when you generally see sharp inclines as such this is due to introduction of investment. Outside cash is affecting these inclines and I think a comparison on the returns from said cash flow elsewhere needs to be done with future returns on its new placement.
The example of rho=-1 in min 34:50 its impossible to achieve if both assets behave like Geometric Brownian Motions: if both have same mu and same sigma, and the noise processes are such as B_{2t} = -B_{1t} then the correlation coefficient is given by
ho = -e^{-sigma^2 t} this showing Markowitz porfolio theory is incompatible with geometric brownian motion analysis
Expected return works in games where you have bounded environment, set rules, normal distribution, and finite outcomes. Markets are open dynamic environment. This game is unbounded, anything can happen. Synchronized participants can force extreme unlimited outcomes. Ref. WSJ Jan 2014, About That Billion Dollar Basketball Challenge, Ernest Loperena
03:05 Starts
05:37 Steps
11:05 Instruments
13:54 Portfolio goals
19:16 Portfolio goals | What is risk?
21:11 Expected return
22:33 Expected return | Instruments
26:33 Expected return | Efficient frontier
27:54 Expected return | Efficient frontier | How to find it?
28:53 Expected return | Special cases with two assets
29:49 Expected return | Special cases with two assets | Case 1
31:40 Expected return | Special cases with two assets | Case 2
34:28 Expected return | Special cases with two assets | Case 3
34:54 Expected return | Special cases with two assets | Case 4
35:53 Expected return | Special cases with two assets | Case 5
39:50 Expected return | Special cases with two assets | Case 6
40:44 Expected return | Special cases with two assets | Case 7
41:22 Expected return | Special cases with three assets
43:09 Expected return | Beta and sharpe ratio
46:59 Portfolio allocation
51:26 Portfolio allocation | Diversification
56:22 Risk parity
01:00:15 Risk parity | Sharpe ratio
Thanks :)
what a champ
not all hero wear cap
35:53 = Case 5 (cash as a part of the portfolio) is very insightful.
50:27 = Nice explanation of the benefit of adopting risk parity + periodic rebalancing, with an example of scenario having 2 perfectly negatively correlated assets which are up 50% of the years each.
Clear and informative lecture. Disclaimer: No student debt was created during the watching of this video. Thanks MIT
well they failed to mention the best investment in history "blockchain"
But you also don't get the degree that lets you get his job at Morgan Stanley.
Correction, some student debt was created as there were tuition-paying students in that room during that lecture.
Would that dude be saying shit if he wasn't getting .013% of the criminal amount of money people pay? supply and demand, or i demand your compliance or you will be ruined.
@@carriermodulation what u say today o will try but give me good brifing beforehand गमे start thanks
27:50 Efficient Frontier
Kelly's Formula 45:30
Risk Parity: 59:30
1:16:00 forecasting by looking at only historical data is like driving and only looking in the rearview mirror
Using historical data and statistics helps understand the risk and the market's sentiment regarding a stock during certain times. The only way to look forward is considering the company's strategy and truly understanding its currently available resources. I work on a hedging team which is basically portfolio management and I would never use any of the hardcore math I've learned to select a single stock.
@@soccerplayer2277 he is using the formula to figure out a diversification strategy based on SD and Ro of previously selected assets. Are you paying attention?
@@kylelarson5074 I was and I am fundamentally disagreeing with him. It is not a forecast, these statistics are estimators and are just being assumed to carry forward into the future. Rho is not a bad estimator for some purposes but implied volatility proves much better than SD of historical prices as it is usually based on the market's forecasts of the stock. Volatility during these past 2 years has been through the roof, partially due to trade conflicts and the expanding global economy. Would I use these historical volatility estimates to develop a portfolio for the next 2 years, where trade agreements are likely settled and the global economy possibly begins contracting? No. What I would do is forecast stocks individually, select all my assets and then determine the optimal weightings of the assets to produce the largest sharpe ratio of the portfolio.
I am so glad that I didn't pay for this course...
Markowitz
1. Understand your goals
17:02 University Endowment
17:33 Pension Fund - What is timeframe when workers retire and need to draw from the pension?
2. Be clear about how much risk you can take
19:20 What is risk?
26:08 Risk-reward investment map
27:50 Efficient Frontier
3. Building a Model
47:45 Plotting portfolio allocation
50:34 Risk Parity
I like Dr. Jake Xia. He explains so well and with a peaceful attitude. He looks genuine interest in the learning of the students.
Almost ASMR like lol. Seems like a super nice approachable guy.
one thing about all of the MIT lectures, they seem so kind as individuals.
Come for my country all professors are just sadist
Sincere appreciation to MIT for Sharing this lecture. I have never been to university but now I am able to learn from the greatest minds from your channel. Thank you 🙏
This is so cool, I could never afford going to MIT, I live in a third world country Honduras. But I wish I could get this type of high quality education
@@AstorSkywalkerMIT is one of the least expensive colleges in all of America. If you are talented and have displayed it creatively and academically, the cost is almost free.
Pretty decent world we live in right now. I can learn all this for free.
you can only appreciate a person who tries to teach everyone how to invest and invest and make profits on multiple ways, up and down
it's crystal clear why most us lavish in investment lost due to ignorance
Thanks for the wonderful wonderful info
not for free, you are investing your time
@@JiwanWill hey would you recommend any books or research websites online for young people who want to get into investing?
I'd have loved to study under this professor. He asks his students what kind of approach they'd like and then adjusts his lectures accordingly.
Talking as if the students show enough initiative to actually make something out of that offer. There are two sides to a coin.
@@Musikmaker658 This is MIT not Harvard so he at least has a fighting chance with them :)
My portfolio:
100 SPY PUTS - expiry this friday - strike price $200
Mike K positions or ban
@@Tahiki6 How about positions and ban?
THIS IS THE WAY
lmaooo. goes to show that the stuff they teach us in finance classes just get thrown out the window.
Oh gawd - is no place safe from /r/wallstreetbets???
if you don't have a lot of time; skip the part where he makes a point on how diversification is key - and go straight to the example at 1:05:00, where he makes a point of not always doing what everybody else is doing.
And then ask yourself: do you really believe that the best option is to be be buying the same index-funds as everybody else right now?
For some reason, i find it satisfying when he draws the graphs. he is a good graph drawer
The calculation benefit is in identifying the best possible solution which in turn reduces the effort necessary to overcome the negative. 28:13
This is not meant to be insulting... but this guy's voice is so calming, he could distribute these lectures and brand them as "Economy Lessons to put your restless mind at ease". This is like a sleep aid... it's awesome. I will be a master of Modern Portfolio theory in a decade.
Ahh yes of course, diversify your GameStop with both stocks as well as options 🤔
Doge go brr
It’s a very important thing to diversify for us apes, you see when you have both calls and shares it reduces the chance of it going tits up.
I just like the stock
LEAPS as well as Weeklies
Stonks
He is such a cheerful person! He just can't help smiling all the time can he?))))
I work in a front office investment control desk for one of Europe's largest asset managers. Found this very interesting, normally what you find is a degree of variance from the benchmark within equities, even then internal house rules will dictate only a minimal degree of variance. You'll find a lot of portfolios with have buckets for different asset classes (depending on the mandate), in particular, money market to sweep up excess cash to put the money to work whilst the PM picks securities. This presentation is really covering MAI funds. Great video and fantastic lecturer.
Thank you so much for providing this invaluable value to aspiring minds. This is the greatest service to humanity. The Professor is such an excellent teacher and it is amazing that we can listen to him from any part of the world. Many thanks, MIT and Prof.
I appreciate you making complex trading concepts clear and accessible to everyone. Thanks for your valuable work!
The dude has degrees in electrical engineering and computer science, and on top of all these, he knows the finance. Just wow.
Brilliant with numbers but misspelled, or perhaps it was the student who wrote the notes, commodities at 8:47.
Asian power.
Diversification should not only apply to financials after all. A greater diversification of skills and people should lead to a more stable society, “echo chambers” are not good or useful for a society.
@@Fractal_32 Been thinking the same thing regarding diversification throughout the lecture.
@@eben3357 Second language, or perhaps third. I think we could allow him a misspelling
this is how u stay alive across markets... great video with replay value. should be watched during this greater bull run as the most dangerous levels everyone is blind....
YEAH, QUARANTINE VIDSSSSSS 2020 BABY YEAHHHH!!
u r not alone bro lol
Hi from Brazil Quarentine..
Luis Fernando Silva oi! Todo bom?
Lol
Here I'm dude, from Italy
The professor is very smart and nice because he wants to show that causality is missing in classical portfolio optimization and even in risk parity paradigm. beautiful video.
Thank you very much MIT for sharing this knowledge. Jake Xia, excellent teaching.
I was lucky enough to sit in this class. MIT is the best place in my life.
how do you feel now knowing you can just yolo half your net worth into weekly spy calls and it will probably beat anything these strategies can produce in 10 years lmao
@@SebastianRodriguez-hk2ji you're trolling btw
@@SebastianRodriguez-hk2ji and lose it all the next week 😂
@@SebastianRodriguez-hk2jiI’d say this would be a hard “nope” for me as a professional trader for one obvious reason: it is a fact that on a daily basis, the relationship between the S&P closing up or down for the day is 50/50… so 50% of the time the market closes up, and 50% of the time it closes down… even in a modest bullish trend… given this knowledge, yoloing your net worth on SPY calls is NOT a good idea because the overwhelming odds are that you very well may be the one sad bastard who bought/sold them when the SPY decides for whatever reason that it wants to make a little pullback from which it will then take 2 months to recover from. Happens all the time… often enough for me to make a great living lol (I trade ES futures).
Writing this on November 23rd, 2023, after the S&P posted one of the craziest rallies ever recorded. Straight line up, no downwards action - 14 green days with only 3 tiny little wicky red days… after a month when people thought Black Monday was going to repeat itself… now I’m sure more than a few people yolod the SPY puts that week before we began this rally and they most likely lost everything they had in their account, and some likely lost even more than they had… so… that’s my 2 cents on this strategy. Keep the yoloing strictly for Wall St Bets degeneracy.
35:17 Why does the return stay the same if they are negatively correlated and you invest 50:50 in both? Wouldn't it be 0?
Edit: I'm just stupid. The return value is an expected longterm average.
i was thinking the same, stiII not sure, expected vaIue wouId be 0 right?
@@mudderdrummer It's probably something like this www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=y+%3D+sin%280.20*x%29+%2B+0.06*x++and+y+%3D+sin%280.20*x+%2B+pi%29+%2B+0.06*x
He didn't change R1 and R2, so return or y-axis doesn't change (i.e. both assets still perform equally well in terms of return). He changed the correlation which affects variance (x-axis) and in this case a negative correlation results in 0 variance at a 50/50 split
On the contrarily, Warren, Munger and Cuban do not suggest diversification of portfolio. Diversification is useful when: -
1. Rising asset will fall in future and falling asset will rise in future. Applying strategy in consecutive years : Putting more weight on falling one and decreasing weight on rising one. So that, when the trend will change, you will make more profit. Explained at 55th min in the video.
2. Possibility of trend change is high when everyone applying same optimal strategy.
3. Minimise loss when trend reverse
Approach I follow is :- Value investing : Invest when price of asset is lower than intrinsic value and sell when price of asset is above its intrinsic value.
There is one approach called Momentum investing : Grab the momentum of the stock and go in the flow. This may be risky.
Any suggestion is appreciated.
For people wondering why variance and mean of coin flip is one. Let us assume a fair coin. P(Heads) = P(Tails) = 0.5. Assume you get +1 if you land heads and -1 if you land tails.
Mean = 1*0.5 + (-1) * 0.5 =0. Variance = E(X- mean)^2. Variance = E(X^2) as mean is zero. E(X^2) = 1*1*0.5 + (-1)(-1)*0.5 = 1. Hence standard deviation is also 1.
Correct delivery 👏
I really like this MIT online self-learning education model, with good lighting and powerful lectures.
Thank you for your amazing content MIT & thanks to Jake for his interesting lectures too!!!
Thank you for the amazing lecture. Not fortunate enough to enroll in MIT but grateful to learn from this vid.
Rest in peace that one guy who invested everything into Yahoo.
Jake is wrong in a few regards:
1) Cash has a zero to negative return based how much money the reserve bank prints each year or the CPI. Historically cash has devalued about 7% a year based on M2, or conservatively, at least the CPI. Cash, by definition cannot have a positive return.
2) A lotteries expected return is based on the current jackpot sometime jackpots get high enough that they become value for money bets - so the return and standard deviation would be higher than 1 (100%).
3) Analysis has shown that only the best VCs (top 25%) do better than ETFs, and that most VCs actually perform worse than the stock market. ETFs as a whole should perform almost exactly the same as stocks, though sectors may under/over perform the general market.
4) The return on real estate has historically been lower than stocks.
Unless he is assuming the "Cash" is held in a money market account, a common assumption.
At1:08:20 for these two examples, love it and easily understand. Learn a lot from this class.
34:17 For uncorrelated assets(p=0), the variance for equally weighted assets is 0.5^2 * sigma^2 + 0.5^2 * sigma^2. Var = 0.25 * sigma^2 + 0.25 * sigma^2 = 0.5 * sigma^2.
Var = sigma^2 / 2
Standard deviation = sigma / sqrt(2)
This professor is amazing
well - he is a real professional teacher.
Thats the difference between normal universities and top 20 universities.
very handsome ,i like the way he talks
Andrew H did you miss the part where he explained why? Different people have different investment goals e.g. protection to principal before retirement
Andrew H it was shortly after he said his portfolio was conservative. He reference back to the life stage graph and said something to the effect of, his main goal right now In his stage is protecting principal
Excellent lecture young man .
You've expanded my old brain.
haha, "the closest thing to a free lunch in investment.. is diversification". Im sure he came up with that on the stop. Great lecturer!
*...on the spot*
Lejonet nope he didn’t. It was ray dalio
20:01
Timestamp for me - I really want to watch the whole lecture, but it’s 2am, so I might fall asleep any second.
Just ignore me, thanks.
Wakeup man
YAAASSS QUEEEEENNN!!!
Next time just text or email yourself a link with the start time. This is asinine way of saving your place. Its been 3 weeks. Either you finished the lecture or you didn't, time to remove this personal use time stamp.
@@TexasBoyDrew wow
who tf watches... at 2 am... nvm u do u boo, get that $
the clarity in this lecture is insane
As Clear as his chalk markings made for his Diagrams.
I really would of understood him if he hadn't of kept not really getting to the point!.
And his accent was hard for me to understand.
Also I don't know if there is other lectures that goes with this one but I felt his class knew what he meant, allowing them to complete the process of understanding what he is teaching them!!?🤗🤔🧐
No Doubting the Lecturers Intelligence!.
And I could probably get it!;if I watched this lecture a couple more Times!!😄🤓🤡🤑🤯🤫🤔🤫
As a sports bettor I was interested to see him talking about Kelly's formula 45:30 then he starts to talk about -100% (negative) probabilities :D Okay, he corrected himself after a while but still anyone who actually is used to use probabilities don't think even a millisecond that probabilities could be negative.
I feel like i just had the craziest realization. Kids cant learn shit in schools in america pre college is cause teachers have a quota they have to meet and they pre write things on the board and rush through slides and the kids dont have a chance to understand anything thoroughly its just a memory game.
This guy gets it about taking his time and writing through everything. I like him.
every industry have their own agenda, there is conflict of interest. best way to survive & thrive in the financial markets is build your own infrastructure.. but that just one part of human needs to fullfil freedom (act) and free will (thoughts) there's more human needs like psychological etc.. thats is the optimised version of life which bring clarity and value
@@edrian3485 plagiarism
In such an easy way he teaches difficult concepts
I will try to build, thanks David
40:35) Correction: It's _not_ quadratic, rather it's linear. Just try calculating when the rho = -1 and you'll see it.
you are right. it is tedious to verify though.
He smiles like *The Big Short* hedge fund manager
Great movie
i think it's the same guy
Synthetic CDO manager?:)
SYNTHETIC CDOs
I literally thought the same thing before I even scrolled down to the comments!
I am enjoy watching from Tokyo, Japan. and am a 52years lady. Thank you for giving a great lecture!
I really love MIT chalkboard. It seems so smooth and nostalgic.
This is excellent. And its all for free!
shhh might start charging lol
I wish my Professors approach their lectures like this. Trying their best to simplify the concepts of a new topic. All my professor does is follow the textbook lol
thats cause he is a lazy Piece of Shit
Probably because their course coordinators and department chairs make them cover specific topics from the book. In upper division courses, professors tend to have more flexibility.
I don't know how i came here & im not even interested in this but im watching & learning what he is lecturing.
Damn....
"The tendency is to stay with the crowd -- for survival..." Exactly.
whoever called out google and apple stock, mad respect bro hope u living lavish if u held
whoa....an actual chalkboard? Love it. The chalk hitting the board at 8 am always kept waking me up.
Compared to the stocks communities in the reddit ,Facebook which just sold the news there,never taught you the basics of investment,how to analysis the market,you just like have no idea how to invest your money besides following the news or the financial advices ,this guy at least taught you the basics of investment,I really appreciate it
My portfolio would be 100% deep OTM SPY puts expiring the same week (leveraged 25:1 of course)
guh
WSB is everywhere
Still better then lottery tickets.
"The closest thing to a free lunch in investment is diversification" - Jake Xia, 2013
If this class was today, the student portfolio would look a lot different. Bitcoin, NFT's, Smart Contracts...
He said that math is super simple and my mind over here is mind blown.
Good Portfolio Management is the only way to attain success in the stock market. With the help of an experienced portfolio manager i know that is possible.
you are absolutely correct, i made $59850 in total last year because i had a good portfolio manager. Mrs Lilian Wan grew my portfolio from $3000 i started with to that amount.
The Stock Market is a liquidated market that has been on for ages, its only beneficial to those who follow through the right procedure. I have been investing in it and i get a good return on investment.
Very nice. 59:58 "We have not talked about liquidity". Well, not today's lecture - but in the real world its the most important variable of all.
Got suddenly complicated at 29:00 ...
Edit: Oh those are "w" for weight not omegas.
Oh thanks! That explains why I suddenly had no clue what was going on with the ‘extremely simple calculations’😂
“I’m gonna write down everything and take my time”- that’s a good mentor.
yeah bebe. u got it.
Any one in 2024
Do you have any business?
yes im here
🙋♂️
December, 2024 😂😅❤
+1
Investing in securities is really a matter of probability. It is very probable that shares of JNJ and PG will pay you dividends each quarter and it is very probable that each company will raise the dividend amount paid to you each year. Likewise, it is very probable that a highyield bond fund will pay you more than a governement bond fund but the underlying asset value of the high yield fund will fluctuate. Given these (very simple) examples of probability, we invest (not gamble) our resources accordingly. If we have a long time horizon and do not react emotionally to crashes, pandemics and the like, the concept of probability will reward us. First it will reward us on a somewhat gradual basis as the years go by and then often on an exponential basis as the investments we made initially (and reinvested dividends) really gain traction. I invested $2000 in a high yield bond fund 20 years ago and reinvested all income; the fund now returns $2600 per year. This is not rocket science.
In one word, diversify your portfolio to maximize your returns. Thanks for the video.
not really lol, only if markets were that easy wouldn't that be wonderful
Yes and No, more Like: to lower your risk
06:30 3rd step is Research
I think he considers that in models and math
53:47 Prof Xia says "if your stock did well, sell some of that so you have more of the stock that lost money; in my example the loser doubles and the one that doubles loses it's gains." This is not a good trading tactic, outside of this year; when stimulus propped up markets.
The truth is that rebalancing does not guarantee your returns will improve; they might or might not improve them depending on what will happen. They might even diminish.
What rebalancing offers for sure, though, is lessening the impact of the risk of permanent loss of wealth, if you are unlucky to have bet on a horse that dies in the middle of the race (i.e. a company you own goes bankrupt).
Studying and applying the mathematical side to making decisions with your portfolio is great but at the end of the day, it's the psychology of the individual that can drive someone to make a rash decision.
The best practice in the capital markets is to invest for most returns with minimum possible risk. Although I'd like to add that no amount of quants can predict the stock prices in the future. Frankly government policies do effect the rise and fall of stocks, so in a way we can say that policy makers do have the power to push and pull the market.
55:36 I think his assumption is wrong when combining 50/50 of A and B, in Year 1 50%A will be increased from $50 to $100 and 50%B will be decreased from $50 to $25 so the total of the portfolio will be increased from $100 to $125 => increasing 25% but when in Year 2, 50%A will be decreased from $100 to $50 and 50%B will be increased from $25 to $50 so that the total of Portfolio = $100=> decreasing 20% in Year 2
You forgot the rebalancing at the end of year one. 50%A will be 125/2=68
@@saintgavinsitu($100+25)/2 = $62.50 for each after rebalancing. Then, at the end of year 2, A=$31.25 and B=$125, totalling $156.25.
📈🚀🚀I find myself paying more attention to this video than my actual classes
It's a real conundrum. Lectures you find online from MIT, Stanford, Harvord, etc, are so much better than the usual lecture you'd find at your own college. It's hard to even show up and listen. And in the end, why should you? Really goes to show that large components of the university system are obsolete.
Financial management is a vital subject that many avoid, often leading to future regrets.
Prof Xia, I stumbled onto your 16. PM video and surprised to read the negative comments. So, here is a real life portfolio, created using Markowitz portfolio therory explained by Francis and Archer. This portfolio was created based on the Dogs of the Dow starting Jan 1, 2018. The optimal weights are Verizon 2.03%, IBM 5.17%, Pfizer 18.18%, Exxon Mobile 11.87%, Chevron 12.40%, Merck 9.38%, Coca-Cola 6.67%, Cisco 13.75%, P&G 7.87% GE 12.67%. Even with big losses from Exxon, Cisco and GE the ROR as 12/13/2018 is +34.57%.
One year of good return proves nothing.
@@xdman20005 it proves a 34.5% return, the next question is, can we repeat this consistently over time. If so then it's a model that's implemented and monitored very closely.
@@jerrydulin6029 true
Tony Lozano Tony Lozano dogs of the Dow isn’t a set portfolio rather it’s a portfolio that is made up of the 10 Dow component companies that have the biggest dividend that year. Every year on the first trading day in January investors following this theory would rebalance their portfolios according to that years data. It’s just one of those portfolios that just happen to work historically for no real reason.
Excellent analysis
Very clear concepts
It makes me understand the theme of finance and applications
Many thanks
He seems like a great prof :) Rare to see profs that really try to listen to their students. These were always my favourite profs in school.
Thanks 💥🙏🏽 for these FREE CLASSES from MIT 🙏🏽 in financial literacy 💙 Greetings 🖖🫂 from the Philippines 🇵🇭 💙💕
22:45 can someone explain to me why cash has a positive return? I always thought it had a negative return in an inflationary economy, but I assume this guy knows a lot more than me.
Maybe you get some interests from the bank or something?!
I would assume it depends on the interest rate environment
It depends on the definition. Either he means very liquid assets such as short term bonds or day to day banking deposits, which can be theoretically turned into cash very quickly if needed. Or he refers to the hypothetical liquidity premium cash gives you, i.e. the possibility to use cash as a means of transaction is seen as a positive return. Keynes set this hypothetical return at round about 3%. But I think you are doing better with the first one
Due to the inflation cash has a negative return. Thank you FED and EZB!
gentleman at 1:26:00 was really interesting to hear from, glad he was included in the video
01:18:00 can be applied to almost decisions in adulthood or at work. what is the difference between human and a computer? human can analyze based on past trends of events so that it can derive a more holistic solution
Anyone follow the question at 1:19:20? Money management also involves HR and managing talent and people and moving forward in their careers? I think that's obvious and goes without saying? smh.
Look who was the one that asked the question. It tells you everything.
@@syncmeandroid yeah lol. fucking amazing contribution from her.
Syncme Android that’s what affirmative action gets you
Best lecture on finance and intuitive thought process
Definitely! Gonna add this one to my playlist for later! 🤙💯
Cash has inherent risk relative to volatility, i.e inflation, decoupling of the markets that served as the basis for the theory (acceptance and conversion, petrodollar, swift and other hegemonic programs).
This is a not about beating an index, by a proper asset allocation that prevent layman blow up their account within 2 weeks if they use margin, and also reduce the maximum drawdown and the exposure risk to the market
Tan Jia Lee it’s not about trading you idiot
Well at 1:20:00 the top right chart, I find no major issue with one that lays out as such, however when you generally see sharp inclines as such this is due to introduction of investment. Outside cash is affecting these inclines and I think a comparison on the returns from said cash flow elsewhere needs to be done with future returns on its new placement.
great teacher really helped, thanks
Knowledge should not cost individual thousands of dollars. Thank you M. I. T. ❤❤❤❤❤❤
Bobby Axelrod would tear this guy to pieces!
I love this video. Interesting discussion on finding a way to determine volatility between assets with the same returns
1:19:24
When a social studies student walks into the finance class....
Sticks out from the crowd like a pink zebra...
Dies first
I was looking for that time tag so badly... (facepalm)
Little smug smile after thinking she just zing'd em'.
LMAO
Hahahahaha! I was looking for comments that burns this girl
33:00 Return and volatility is same
Thank you for the brilliant content, this and the other, lectures are priceless.
Knowledge is power!
The example of rho=-1 in min 34:50 its impossible to achieve if both assets behave like Geometric Brownian Motions: if both have same mu and same sigma, and the noise processes are such as
B_{2t} = -B_{1t}
then the correlation coefficient is given by
ho = -e^{-sigma^2 t}
this showing Markowitz porfolio theory is incompatible with geometric brownian motion analysis
Fantastic Lecture.
Although, it’s missing GME.
BTC was $300 per coin at the filming of this
Whats that GME mean?
Expected return works in games where you have bounded environment, set rules, normal distribution, and finite outcomes. Markets are open dynamic environment. This game is unbounded, anything can happen. Synchronized participants can force extreme unlimited outcomes. Ref. WSJ Jan 2014, About That Billion Dollar Basketball Challenge, Ernest Loperena
1. risk management 2. use the right technical indicators, and you'll do at least double digits with minimal "risks"
Using coloured chalk on the black board helps to clarify things particularly in diagrams/graphs etc..
I feel a lot smarter after watching this
@22:40 why is holding cash a positive return? doesn't it lose value over time to inflation?
0:29:08 *When she says she only likes smart guys*