Interesting interview. Can you kindly fix the sound from your guest next time or ask your guest to fix his sound or microphone or computer or slow Internet?
@H C True. Just a permabear data mining for negatives. He has been calling for a crash since 2012. Sorry but if you miss a 400% rise in the market, you are an idiot regardless of how many charts you post about how the market will crash.
One of the best, most objective interviews, yet to be rendered. Full of "nuggets" of understanding and analysis of current, economic conditions formed over our heads. A MUST for a second listen. Great interview, Adam.
John said watch the "CREDIT" DDM Said the same thing and that was the main thing to watch. When the credit pops that's it. Been getting the Hussmann report since before the pandemic! Thanks.
I know I say this in the comments a lot, but really insightful one yet again. It made me feel much more comfortable not chasing after alpha...especially here, especially now.
Awesome point. I would say which asset class and country to make it slightly more correct. Japan arguably had a bigger stock market and housing bubbles in the late 80s. 2000: biggest US stock market bubble in modern history 2007: biggest US housing market bubble in modern history 2021: biggest US stock market & US housing bubble in modern history.
Great interview as always with one exception. John Hussman states that there were never any housing busts. Not true! Look back to 1930s era when there were many US farmers that lost the farms due to being over extended in debts on machinery and land. My father's family lost their farm in North Dakota as a result and migrated west.
Hurray, someone just explained the obvious. With zero interest rates people will go 'desperate' to get returns and undervalue risk. It is almost an exponential ignoring of risk when a feedback loop exists with rising stock valuations. FOMO takes over but future profits will not support the new price levels of stock. The vacume of unsupported value will turn bad on one day, or on one week with a loss of confidence. It takes only one geopolitical event to start the cascade downwards. Interest rates are simply the value of currency and if you move to zero then your current currency wealth has to move to greater risk levels.
Adam, wondering if there is any chance you would interview Russell Napier. He has written a couple of books and has done a few interviews. Has some very interesting insights into what is going on now with respect to money creation and financial oppression.
Had not known of or heard of John Hussman before. Quickly became a fan. A very intelligent presentation, and I found it personally educational. I could not get my head around Mr Hussman's theory of every deficit is counter-balanced by a surplus to satisfy the equilibrium that must exist. Our Federal Reserve created roughly six trillion dollars out of thin air in the past couple of years, I fail to see where the counter-balance of that exists, with the exception of an entry into their ledgers. Maybe he can elaborate on that in future presentations. Thank you !
The idea is simple. When FED is creating money they are de facto monetizing Government Deficit. One subtelty is involved here. If they overtly buy bonds directly from Treasury by creating fresh money, than this would be dorect monitization causing hue and cry. So what they do is they buy Treasuries from money market funds banks etc. So Treasury needs money -> Browwors by issuing T Bonds-> FED has created the market on T Bonds by buying trillions of it on its balance sheet, so they create an abnornally high demand and therefore price for these T bonds (artifically low yields). Now they buy bonds from banks or money market funds, in effect financing government deficit at a low rate. When government spends this money on stimmies it goes to households,when they build roads, buy equipments it goes to corporates who get these contracts
Thanks Adam, very good interview. I don't think people are euphoric. Looks like markets expect the CBs will always 'do what it takes' to keep propping up the market with more liquidity. But the extra liquidity must devalue the currency and the stocks are denominated in that currency. Wonder what John Bull would make of negative interest rates. As John says, zero rates are so abnormal they are distorting everything. And he's not the only one who thinks they are misinterpreting that curve. Really appreciate the market comment report.
Great show and Great Guest ... A privilege to have such content and way of getting it across... Thanks Guys!! Oh ... Hussman seems to be a rational, experienced and most importantly, Honest/Serious thinker!!👍 Bring him back as it might suit forward
Yes he called the bubble in 2008 but he also said the Dow was going to 1800, that's 1800 not 18,000. He's been wrong for over a decade and cost his investors a lot of money. He's another Rob Arnott type, too smart for their own good but he will be proven right again but after a decade of losses. What's the quote about markets remaining irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Excellent Interview.
Wonderful brilliant guest👏 however, that is small consolation to people like me who lost money betting on his analysis. Hubris can be found at BOTH extremes… with the speculator and with the short seller…my own two cents worth is that this crazy market still has room to go much higher (possibly 5500 on the S&P) before this house of cards finally collapses… Cash today is yielding -5.6% based on the silly CPI number and a lot lower if you look at real estate or commodity inflation…people are understandably fleeing cash in droves…lemmings for sure but enjoying a hell of a final ride nevertheless 😀
I'm feeling the same way. I started getting out in September 2020 because "all of the signals were flashing red." Meanwhile, the market has done nothing but go up and I'm losing purchasing power due to inflation. The question is, do I get back in now when things are even more insane?
@@lisalph8922 I'm cashing out of high performers 10% each month for next 4 months that way I'm locking in stock increase already achieved whlie stocks increase and decreasing risk
Brilliant survey of financial and real estate markets over the last 2 decades. JH views the Fed as "profoundly culpable and dogmatic and reckless". Reckless also describes the speculative fervor of those participating in the markets. The same "mood" that inspired the Fed to think that it can control financial markets is what drives the speculators. The psychology of complacency and optimism leads to strong upward trending markets - until it doesn't when the opposite impulse of fear takes over. Despite the Fed's actions to increase liquidity in 2008 with TALF and other lending moves, it was unable to stop the stock market unravelling. The mood was against them. Recognising the change in mood is where Elliott Wave Theory can be very helpful. No one waves a warning flag at the top but it is possible to infer from the way the market turns down that it is impulsive (or not) and so take action accordingly.
At 26:53 Hussman states “Valuations still matter profoundly.” Not nearly as much as if the markets weren’t rigged and QE didn’t happen and stock buybacks with lending from banks was actually reflected in credit ratings.
In addition to close to zero interest rates, how might massive Fed balance sheet debt increase and Treasury debt increase since 2008 play into excessive stock market valuations and asset inflation in general?
While you are on the subject of yield, where are the insurance companies deriving the debt yield to provide the income to service the annuities and cover the normal business losses given that most state commissioners limit the equity ownership to 20%? Other than relabeled Zimbabwe debt what other subterfuges are capitalizing on the negligence of the state insurance examiners? If the US insurance industry is not a bubble it is a phantasy.
I never really bought into the hype surrounding the trending algorithmic trading method till last year. But now looking at the $250,000 in profits I've made from just the last quarter of 2021. I am quite convinced that this is the future of investing. All these without making a single trade by myself while still having a properly diversified portfolio
FED is still buying 80 billion dollars of toxic asset from banks every month, that's almost a trillion dollars a year. Bubble is very big now. 2008, TARP was 800 billions for Aerospace, Automotive, Banks, Agriculture. 2021, Three trillion only for financial system toxic asset purchase. Anyone having mortgage or loan or derivatives is going to be hit badly
This guy is very smart but what the market "Should do" does not always happen. His fund HSGFX has been flat for the last four years. Sooner or later he will be right and the market will crash but he has been calling for this for many many years. I'll wait for the technicals to roll over before heading to the exits. The 50 dma is a nice alarm bell to begin the exit.
@@contrariankairos9845 I agree with you. My comment put more plainly: John is dealing in reality and reality always wins. So people who dismiss him over his returns over last 8 years should hold their fire until he retires. I am totally out of this ‘market’.
I'm a chart person. I look at 5 yr charts on stocks since last 2 years are not average. From 3 yrs to now almost every major stock is straight up. In a pandemic. With half the country not even working. I ask How?? (rhetorically)
John's models need to be updated and include unlimited willingness of central bankers to support this bubble. They will do anything to prevent it from popping, you know Fed will be buying stocks directly during the next drop. Yes, the amount of speculation in MEME, SPACS, cryptos is mind boggling, but what do the say about markets that can remain irrational.....?
When do markets remain irrational though? We're still in pandemic with major spending bills from Congress. When those funds are circulating - next years, is when the wheat will separate from the chafe and we'll see a more "realistic" economy.
ONLY problem is been forecasting via his market internals a huge crash for the past 3 yrs at least. can he explain why now, and not as he predicted 3 yrs ago?
“Unit labor costs are outstripping inflation.” No they are not! In fact, the vax mandates have multiple reasons, one being to saturate the market with available workers, intentionally keeping workers’ bargaining power down.
Hi Adam, If world governments switch to CBDC, withdraw cash from circulation and close all retail banks couldn't they then go to negative interest rates and slowly pay the national debt off by using the negative interest rates to eat away at our deposits from our accounts?
I wonder how assets should be valued in a world where real interest rates are kept negative indefinitely? If you lived in a country like Turkey or Venezuela you probably wouldn’t keep any of your wealth in fixed income investments denominated in local currency. If developed countries are entering a period of unstable populist politics, how much can we trust the integrity of our currencies in the long run?
To put it a different way, right now the real fed funds rate is negative 6%. If we are entering a period of history where this becomes a common occurence, people will attempt to store their wealth in assets that are not “certificates of wealth confiscation”.
3 года назад
Who Owns your Rep or Senator or Governor? Oil? Pharma? Banks? Bezos? Elon? Gates? Buffet? Goog? Walton? Zuck? Ellison? Bloomberg? Knight?
The problem is that we are living in the post truth era... Fiat monetary systems, are nothing but a parallel market of the cryptos... In some cases, even less technical support.. People keep comparing the situation with 1929..!!! Do we live in a similar world.??! Computers? Internet? A.I.? Now the METAVERSE...?!!! DE LOCOS..!!!
@@josebazocosta9341 What does that even mean? When the SHTF people will panic sell. The market does have technologically imposed brakes to slow the crash, which were implemented after the 1987 crash, but they are released after a short period and people will resume selling. Technology cannot prevent or stop a wave of selling once it has commenced. The next crash will look incredibly similar to all the others.
John's rationale and argument is clearly wise. His funds' performance do not reflect this wisdom. Which one matters? You decide after looking at his performance over the last 20 years. In short, it's really, really bad.
23:00 I am a speculator and I know Hussman got the timing wrong. Screw that because I get the bad entries all the time, even when trading with trends. However, I also understand business fundamentals, CAPEX cycles, the broader market behaviors, cash flow pricing, various options pricing models. Sure Hussman missed 10x gains, but that's the point. He's not even talking about trends or momentum. He's talking about the valuation of future cash flows, talking about FED's asset purchases. He's right about that. Bulls got right for wrong reasons
Great interview, none of the politics, just the numbers of the fundamentals he likes to use. Getting clicks by shouting let's go Brandon gets old fast.
Well, sadly, Covid will not be gone by Christmas...in fact, being inside more during the winter is already seeing a rise in cases even in heavily vaccinated areas such as the north. Here in NM and the swatch of states reaching up toward Minnesota, cases are rising fast. Colorado is short on hospital beds and from what I hear, down her in southern NM, we are suddenly in the same boat.
Hussman mistakingly uses the term “dogma” to refer to Fed actions to manipulate rates and drive asset prices sky high. It is the standard dogma of valuation that is at odds with deliberate Fed actions. Those who adhered to that standard have lost out on massive gains in the markets in the last decade. The Fed isn’t the only contributor to this “financial repression” - government regulations on investments and money management have encouraged the money channel toward plain vanilla equity markets, and buybacks have throttled the melt up. For those who didn’t see such dynamics as ultra bullish, but remained anchored to standard valuation dogma, the lost opportunity is years ago. Tough to listen to this interview. The solution is new markets, not the same old options.
Serfdom is the end result of free market financial capitalism. The 99% are debt serfs to the 1%, not the government. Americans are dying with an average of $62,000 of debt. MARCH 22, 2017
What we have is facism, not free market capitalism. If government was small, the politicians wouldn't have anything to sell to lobbyists and big business.
John I have huge respect for you but you are dead wrong on the vax. Gone by Christmas, really? Sitting here in Europe with vax rates > 90% in some places as the hospitals fill up and governments lock down again. In fact the highest vax countries are among the worst now (e.g. Ireland). What you said on the vax makes me question your ability to interpret data or update your view when new data comes along.
Not saying at all that this guy will be wrong ultimately but he’s been singing this tune for years . It’s more a case of where you are in relation to retirement than listening to these mavens. That he has given any added value at all is a stretch. At some point index funds will implode - they’re a perpetual bid without regard to value. These guys can’t tell you when.
John Hussman may be a very knowledgeable person on the markets, but he needs to get a much better device for communicating online. I could not stand listening to the sound of his voice in this video due to the god awful quality of his computer or what ever device he used to communicate verbally with Adam.
GET JOHN'S LATEST MARKET COMMENT REPORT FOR FREE at wealthion.com/hussman
Interesting interview. Can you kindly fix the sound from your guest next time or ask your guest to fix his sound or microphone or computer or slow Internet?
Never heard John Hussman speak that I recall. Make sure to bring him back!
@H C True. Just a permabear data mining for negatives.
He has been calling for a crash since 2012.
Sorry but if you miss a 400% rise in the market, you are an idiot regardless of how many charts you post about how the market will crash.
This is great insight. Today Rivian is now worth 130 billion. A car company that has sold like 100 vehicles. Mother of all bubbles!
They got more cash then cars , n no demand
@@tyreeksease1635 Being one of the few who truly understand where things are going; the future 😬
If it gets to TSLA's +$1T valuation you still have 10x upside from here lol...
Rivian's future is unproven and uncertain. But for sure, their stock is... optimistic, haha
They have a great story. :)
One of the best, most objective interviews, yet to be rendered. Full of "nuggets" of understanding and analysis of current, economic conditions formed over our heads. A MUST for a second listen. Great interview, Adam.
It is amazing how much more logical and easy to follow John and his positions than any speaker out of the Fed. Thanks, great interview.
Sometimes the Fed may be deliberately obscure. Remember Alan Greenspan?
John said watch the "CREDIT" DDM Said the same thing and that was the main thing to watch. When the credit pops that's it. Been getting the Hussmann report since before the pandemic! Thanks.
I know I say this in the comments a lot, but really insightful one yet again. It made me feel much more comfortable not chasing after alpha...especially here, especially now.
“Losing your concept of a limit” is what addiction is all about.
Loosing?
Wise words.
Yep, that's why cheating in a video game isn't fun.
Losing is what you mean I believe
@@snoopy13946 thanks
2000: biggest asset bubble in history!
2007: biggest asset bubble in history!
2021: biggest asset bubble in history!
All true!
Awesome point. I would say which asset class and country to make it slightly more correct.
Japan arguably had a bigger stock market and housing bubbles in the late 80s.
2000: biggest US stock market bubble in modern history
2007: biggest US housing market bubble in modern history
2021: biggest US stock market & US housing bubble in modern history.
Great interview as always with one exception. John Hussman states that there were never any housing busts. Not true! Look back to 1930s era when there were many US farmers that lost the farms due to being over extended in debts on machinery and land. My father's family lost their farm in North Dakota as a result and migrated west.
Excellent interview!! Hussman is brilliant. Thank you Adam for everything you do. 🙌
Tesla valued at more than all other car makers combined -- what a laugh.
It will double in price again in the next 12 months, as always.
@@tomaszantosiewicz5132
You must not have heard or agree w Mr Hussmans convincing arguments then?
Same thing was said about Amazon. You don't understand the force behind disruptive economics.
Why is Elon selling billions of Tesla shares?
Rivian is blowing my mind too with 0 revenue, higher valuation than VW
Excellent Interview!!! Thank you.
F the FED.
demand change
demand democracy
make jobs
Force Zero Rates have turned everything in to a Mass Casino that will end badly.
Correct!
Exactly
Wow! Extraordinary content, one of the best I have seen on this channel. As they say (on twitter) "can't believe this website is free"
Hurray, someone just explained the obvious. With zero interest rates people will go 'desperate' to get returns and undervalue risk. It is almost an exponential ignoring of risk when a feedback loop exists with rising stock valuations. FOMO takes over but future profits will not support the new price levels of stock. The vacume of unsupported value will turn bad on one day, or on one week with a loss of confidence. It takes only one geopolitical event to start the cascade downwards.
Interest rates are simply the value of currency and if you move to zero then your current currency wealth has to move to greater risk levels.
Well said.
Adam, wondering if there is any chance you would interview Russell Napier. He has written a couple of books and has done a few interviews. Has some very interesting insights into what is going on now with respect to money creation and financial oppression.
Had not known of or heard of John Hussman before. Quickly became a fan. A very intelligent presentation, and I found it personally educational. I could not get my head around Mr Hussman's theory of every deficit is counter-balanced by a surplus to satisfy the equilibrium that must exist. Our Federal Reserve created roughly six trillion dollars out of thin air in the past couple of years, I fail to see where the counter-balance of that exists, with the exception of an entry into their ledgers. Maybe he can elaborate on that in future presentations.
Thank you !
The idea is simple. When FED is creating money they are de facto monetizing Government Deficit. One subtelty is involved here. If they overtly buy bonds directly from Treasury by creating fresh money, than this would be dorect monitization causing hue and cry. So what they do is they buy Treasuries from money market funds banks etc. So Treasury needs money -> Browwors by issuing T Bonds-> FED has created the market on T Bonds by buying trillions of it on its balance sheet, so they create an abnornally high demand and therefore price for these T bonds (artifically low yields). Now they buy bonds from banks or money market funds, in effect financing government deficit at a low rate. When government spends this money on stimmies it goes to households,when they build roads, buy equipments it goes to corporates who get these contracts
When this bubble pops, it’s going to be huuuge.
Hi Adam, yet another though provoking and informative interview. So well put about the 0% interest rates taking away the risk limit so to speak.
I’ve always admired Hussman and find it astonishing that CNBC never interviews him. I wonder why! 🤔😂
Best interview ever
Thanks Adam, very good interview. I don't think people are euphoric. Looks like markets expect the CBs will always 'do what it takes' to keep propping up the market with more liquidity. But the extra liquidity must devalue the currency and the stocks are denominated in that currency. Wonder what John Bull would make of negative interest rates. As John says, zero rates are so abnormal they are distorting everything. And he's not the only one who thinks they are misinterpreting that curve. Really appreciate the market comment report.
Thank you so much Adam and team. Bless you all 🙏💞
You have to compare unit labor cost with inflation not only wage growth. Then there is a fine correlation. But great interview about valuations.
Great show and Great Guest ... A privilege to have such content and way of getting it across... Thanks Guys!!
Oh ... Hussman seems to be a rational, experienced and most importantly, Honest/Serious thinker!!👍
Bring him back as it might suit forward
Wealthion 🏆
Yes he called the bubble in 2008 but he also said the Dow was going to 1800, that's 1800 not 18,000. He's been wrong for over a decade and cost his investors a lot of money.
He's another Rob Arnott type, too smart for their own good but he will be proven right again but after a decade of losses. What's the quote about markets remaining irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Excellent Interview.
That's why I manage my own stocks.
Excellent analysis, thank you very much!
Excellent explanation, thank you!
Thank you Gentlemen for all the information. Great stuff!
Wonderful brilliant guest👏 however, that is small consolation to people like me who lost money betting on his analysis. Hubris can be found at BOTH extremes… with the speculator and with the short seller…my own two cents worth is that this crazy market still has room to go much higher (possibly 5500 on the S&P) before this house of cards finally collapses… Cash today is yielding -5.6% based on the silly CPI number and a lot lower if you look at real estate or commodity inflation…people are understandably fleeing cash in droves…lemmings for sure but enjoying a hell of a final ride nevertheless 😀
I'm setting sell triggers while clearing out underperformers & dogs. People might be fleeing cash - I'm going into cash, to buy on the low.
I'm feeling the same way. I started getting out in September 2020 because "all of the signals were flashing red." Meanwhile, the market has done nothing but go up and I'm losing purchasing power due to inflation. The question is, do I get back in now when things are even more insane?
@@lisalph8922 I'm cashing out of high performers 10% each month for next 4 months that way I'm locking in stock increase already achieved whlie stocks increase and decreasing risk
@@marknordin9526 , that's smart. It's like dollar cost averaging out instead of in. I never thought of that. Good idea.
@@lisalph8922 How is that a question, tho. Buy low Sell high...that's my rule.
Brilliant survey of financial and real estate markets over the last 2 decades. JH views the Fed as "profoundly culpable and dogmatic and reckless". Reckless also describes the speculative fervor of those participating in the markets. The same "mood" that inspired the Fed to think that it can control financial markets is what drives the speculators. The psychology of complacency and optimism leads to strong upward trending markets - until it doesn't when the opposite impulse of fear takes over. Despite the Fed's actions to increase liquidity in 2008 with TALF and other lending moves, it was unable to stop the stock market unravelling. The mood was against them. Recognising the change in mood is where Elliott Wave Theory can be very helpful. No one waves a warning flag at the top but it is possible to infer from the way the market turns down that it is impulsive (or not) and so take action accordingly.
At 26:53 Hussman states “Valuations still matter profoundly.” Not nearly as much as if the markets weren’t rigged and QE didn’t happen and stock buybacks with lending from banks was actually reflected in credit ratings.
TY. Phenomenal content.
In addition to close to zero interest rates, how might massive Fed balance sheet debt increase and Treasury debt increase since 2008 play into excessive stock market valuations and asset inflation in general?
excellent as always...thanks
Thanks Adam, I’ve been a fan of John for a few years. I like his work.
While you are on the subject of yield, where are the insurance companies deriving the debt yield to provide the income to service the annuities and cover the normal business losses given that most state commissioners limit the equity ownership to 20%? Other than relabeled Zimbabwe debt what other subterfuges are capitalizing on the negligence of the state insurance examiners? If the US insurance industry is not a bubble it is a phantasy.
Interesting. It would be useful if you could interview some uber bulls. To get different perspectives
I just did exactly that in my interview following Hussman's: ruclips.net/video/G0aNZORqdbY/видео.html
I never really bought into the hype surrounding the trending algorithmic trading method till last year. But now looking at the $250,000 in profits I've made from just the last quarter of 2021. I am quite convinced that this is the future of investing. All these without making a single trade by myself while still having a properly diversified portfolio
Hey. Nice portfolio. How did you do it?
FED is still buying 80 billion dollars of toxic asset from banks every month, that's almost a trillion dollars a year.
Bubble is very big now.
2008, TARP was 800 billions for Aerospace, Automotive, Banks, Agriculture.
2021, Three trillion only for financial system toxic asset purchase.
Anyone having mortgage or loan or derivatives is going to be hit badly
AT & T and Verizon are not in a bubble
John's whole future valuation argument for stocks assumes interest rates are going to increase. What if the FED implements yield curve control??
This guy is very smart but what the market "Should do" does not always happen. His fund HSGFX has been flat for the last four years. Sooner or later he will be right and the market will crash but he has been calling for this for many many years. I'll wait for the technicals to roll over before heading to the exits. The 50 dma is a nice alarm bell to begin the exit.
Anyone can get lucky for a few years - don’t be fooled by randomness - when he retires let’s see what his full cycle returns are.
@@bannerlad01 When the time comes hope you will have time to find the exit!
@@contrariankairos9845 I agree with you. My comment put more plainly: John is dealing in reality and reality always wins. So people who dismiss him over his returns over last 8 years should hold their fire until he retires.
I am totally out of this ‘market’.
I'm a chart person. I look at 5 yr charts on stocks since last 2 years are not average. From 3 yrs to now almost every major stock is straight up. In a pandemic. With half the country not even working. I ask How?? (rhetorically)
If everything is a bubble, then why aren't other car makers worth more, thus negating the difference in relative value between Tesla and, say, GM?
if it's all based on speculation, trend/momentum, and market psychology, then TA is the best way to navigate this market
Its always " paper gains"
Lets see what happens when they all try to cash out those profits all at once
Unless you're a stock market trader you can't move fast enough to cover losses by the time you learn of the crashing...
@@carolmiller5713 Be first, be smarter or cheat.
Amazing interview, thanks so much for this
Did anyone (household or corporate) consider paying down debt w their covid money?
John's models need to be updated and include unlimited willingness of central bankers to support this bubble.
They will do anything to prevent it from popping, you know Fed will be buying stocks directly during the next drop.
Yes, the amount of speculation in MEME, SPACS, cryptos is mind boggling, but what do the say about markets that can remain irrational.....?
When do markets remain irrational though? We're still in pandemic with major spending bills from Congress. When those funds are circulating - next years, is when the wheat will separate from the chafe and we'll see a more "realistic" economy.
ONLY problem is been forecasting via his market internals a huge crash for the past 3 yrs at least. can he explain why now, and not as he predicted 3 yrs ago?
“Unit labor costs are outstripping inflation.” No they are not! In fact, the vax mandates have multiple reasons, one being to saturate the market with available workers, intentionally keeping workers’ bargaining power down.
Hi Adam, If world governments switch to CBDC, withdraw cash from circulation and close all retail banks couldn't they then go to negative interest rates and slowly pay the national debt off by using the negative interest rates to eat away at our deposits from our accounts?
Yes, it’s possible
On Wage Growth. Wage Growth is set at Davos.
Yeah but, what do I do with my fiat?
smart guy... sadly however predicting a market decline over the next few years is WORTHLESS. this is simple, it won't crash until they want it to.
TOO MANY MACRO CHALLENGES TO THE USD AS WELL AS MARKET OVERVALUATION. IN A MELT UP BUT IT WILL TOP N CRASH
Wish I saw this 7 months ago!
I am so jealous, My TI-30Xa Calculator is NOT Solar. 😬😏😒🚀
I wonder how assets should be valued in a world where real interest rates are kept negative indefinitely? If you lived in a country like Turkey or Venezuela you probably wouldn’t keep any of your wealth in fixed income investments denominated in local currency. If developed countries are entering a period of unstable populist politics, how much can we trust the integrity of our currencies in the long run?
To put it a different way, right now the real fed funds rate is negative 6%. If we are entering a period of history where this becomes a common occurence, people will attempt to store their wealth in assets that are not “certificates of wealth confiscation”.
Who Owns your Rep or Senator or Governor? Oil? Pharma? Banks? Bezos? Elon? Gates? Buffet? Goog? Walton? Zuck? Ellison? Bloomberg? Knight?
The problem is that we are living in the post truth era...
Fiat monetary systems, are nothing but a parallel market of the cryptos... In some cases, even less technical support..
People keep comparing the situation with 1929..!!! Do we live in a similar world.??!
Computers? Internet? A.I.? Now the METAVERSE...?!!!
DE LOCOS..!!!
Yep, this time is different. Good luck!
Human fear and greed is no different today from what it was in 1929, or any other year.
@@simoncrooke1644 yes. The basic emotions; of course are the same.
BUT, don't forget: WE NEVER ENTER THE SAME RIVER TWICE...
Even the stones change...
@@josebazocosta9341 What does that even mean? When the SHTF people will panic sell. The market does have technologically imposed brakes to slow the crash, which were implemented after the 1987 crash, but they are released after a short period and people will resume selling. Technology cannot prevent or stop a wave of selling once it has commenced. The next crash will look incredibly similar to all the others.
Interesting. Thought provoking. But you wouldn't have wanted to have this guy run your money the past 10 years.
TRUE... THE PAST DECADE HAS NOT BEEN GOOD.. HE WAS ON TARGET IN 2000 N 2008....
John's rationale and argument is clearly wise. His funds' performance do not reflect this wisdom. Which one matters? You decide after looking at his performance over the last 20 years. In short, it's really, really bad.
He is a very smart 🧠 guy 😀 🙏 👊 🤝
Remember: we came to this world naked
You have amazing interviews, but as a non native speaker / investor it is sometimes hard for me to grasp the math
Hey, Vlafed, don't feel bad...I'm a native speaker of English and the math is hard for me to grasp too.
23:00 I am a speculator and I know Hussman got the timing wrong. Screw that because I get the bad entries all the time, even when trading with trends.
However, I also understand business fundamentals, CAPEX cycles, the broader market behaviors, cash flow pricing, various options pricing models. Sure Hussman missed 10x gains, but that's the point. He's not even talking about trends or momentum. He's talking about the valuation of future cash flows, talking about FED's asset purchases. He's right about that.
Bulls got right for wrong reasons
Great interview, none of the politics, just the numbers of the fundamentals he likes to use. Getting clicks by shouting let's go Brandon gets old fast.
The only thing predictable about the stock market is human nature. When prices go crazy for no reason, in the middle of a pandemic, count me O U T.
Well, sadly, Covid will not be gone by Christmas...in fact, being inside more during the winter is already seeing a rise in cases even in heavily vaccinated areas such as the north. Here in NM and the swatch of states reaching up toward Minnesota, cases are rising fast. Colorado is short on hospital beds and from what I hear, down her in southern NM, we are suddenly in the same boat.
The end is coming. . .
Ya, vaccines aren't very effective
Hussman mistakingly uses the term “dogma” to refer to Fed actions to manipulate rates and drive asset prices sky high. It is the standard dogma of valuation that is at odds with deliberate Fed actions. Those who adhered to that standard have lost out on massive gains in the markets in the last decade. The Fed isn’t the only contributor to this “financial repression” - government regulations on investments and money management have encouraged the money channel toward plain vanilla equity markets, and buybacks have throttled the melt up. For those who didn’t see such dynamics as ultra bullish, but remained anchored to standard valuation dogma, the lost opportunity is years ago. Tough to listen to this interview. The solution is new markets, not the same old options.
Well one thing for sure..this guy is smarter than I am. Ha
Calling for a market crash in the next 10 years is close to worthless pontification.
Ask Hussman how many and which stocks he has shorted
There's plenty of gum flapping and hot air out there, but when this guy talks you'd better listen
It's all about greed. What could go wrong?
Hey
Are we still in a speculative bubble?
It. Would be nice if Dr. Hussman replaced his speakerphone with a real microphone.
Did he recognize the 2019 crash???
I nominate John Hussman to replace Jerome Powell.
I second that!
For 10 years, we go nowhere in an interesting way.....I like it....😝
Serfdom is the end result of free market financial capitalism. The 99% are debt serfs to the 1%, not the government.
Americans are dying with an average of $62,000 of debt. MARCH 22, 2017
What we have is facism, not free market capitalism. If government was small, the politicians wouldn't have anything to sell to lobbyists and big business.
only fools would stay in the markets right now, get out and prepare for a healthy correction
Your guests keep sending the bullish signal.....
So what I'm hearing here is that people are getting dumber overall...
"We're coming out of a pandemic..." Oh, sweet summer child.
John I have huge respect for you but you are dead wrong on the vax. Gone by Christmas, really? Sitting here in Europe with vax rates > 90% in some places as the hospitals fill up and governments lock down again. In fact the highest vax countries are among the worst now (e.g. Ireland).
What you said on the vax makes me question your ability to interpret data or update your view when new data comes along.
CUZ THEY ARE SICK FROM THE JAB
The FED is owned by 6 individuals, they don’t care about the mkt.
Epidemiologists giving economic advice us as laughable as economists giving epidemiological advice...
Not saying at all that this guy will be wrong ultimately but he’s been singing this tune for years . It’s more a case of where you are in relation to retirement than listening to these mavens. That he has given any added value at all is a stretch. At some point index funds will implode - they’re a perpetual bid without regard to value. These guys can’t tell you when.
Covid ending by Christmas. Now that is delusional.
Clueless person who got duped by the 2020 scam event. Zero respect for people that choose to be THAT blind.
Hussman Strategic Growth Fund is down 62% over 12 years.
Are you fucking kidding me?
Yea the fund shorts the spy and Russell and lost a ton of money, nice head
He sure is far away from target on the mumbo jumbo sickness.
SQQQ
John Hussman may be a very knowledgeable person on the markets, but he needs to get a much better device for communicating online. I could not stand listening to the sound of his voice in this video due to the god awful quality of his computer or what ever device he used to communicate verbally with Adam.
He sounds fine to me but the mute and CC buttons might be helpful for you.
This guy should stick to finance he obviously is clueless when it comes to health issues.