Tim Palmer on Doubt: From Quantum Physics to Climate Change | Closer To Truth Chats
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- Опубликовано: 20 окт 2022
- Tim Palmer discusses his new book, The Primacy of Doubt: From Quantum Physics to Climate Change, How the Science of Uncertainty Can Help Us Understand Our Chaotic World. In it, he challenges conventional wisdom on quantum mechanics, free will, and more.
Order The Primacy of Doubt: bit.ly/44pzrJV
Tim Palmer is a Royal Society Research Professor in the department of physics at the University of Oxford. Trained as a mathematical physicist, he pioneered the development of operational ensemble weather and climate forecasting, which are now standard practice globally. He contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Nobel Peace Prize in 2007.
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Closer To Truth, hosted by Robert Lawrence Kuhn and produced and directed by Peter Getzels, presents the world’s greatest thinkers exploring humanity’s deepest questions. Discover fundamental issues of existence. Engage new and diverse ways of thinking. Appreciate intense debates. Share your own opinions. Seek your own answers.
I hope my kids have each day a moment when they are so delighted as Robert is during this conversation.
Love this channel, Robert can talk to anyone and understand what they are saying even if he does not agree, from theologians to physicists.
Yes, such an ability to talk and understand is a rare currency in any time and place.
I know of only one another guy interested in mostly the same questions as Robert with a similar ability to ask and listen, his name is Lex Fridman.
@@shed_number_xii I do like most of the work Lex does, he takes on challenging guests with compassion in an open, non-judgmental way.
😢in the case someone has missed that news
ruclips.net/user/shortsTaCrw-Q2R2g?feature=share
Putin drilling in Arctic is a real cause of methane and of global Warming!
I really appreciate these long form conversations, instead of the shorter talks shown in regular Closer to the Truth episodes. Don't misunderstand, I like the regular shows, but this is a great addition.
Well worth listening to the whole interview especially love how "the fractal geometry is telling us how to behave...and how we behave is determining the geometry of the fractal attractor".
Also, the part on "noise" hits the spot!
This interview is amazing. Thank you Robert and Palmer
a Brazilian philologist and great phrase-maker once wrote "who has no doubts is actually badly informed"
I am an old layman, with a lifelong interest in trying to understand science (with much failure). I read as much of Feynman's work and watched as much footage as I could. I remember how impressed I was by the fact that, even after explaining for us the most successful theories, Feynman would conclude with "probably". Nothing was ever left definite.
Yeah the scientific process can be trusted but the theory's probability of change and reform is constant.
Unfortunately to many get this fixed up and are dogmatic about the theories getting in the way of improving what we know
“The Final Theory: Rethinking Our Scientific Legacy “, Mark McCutcheon.
The Universe greatly appreciates conversations like this.
Thank you.
Great episode!
Tim's ideas are incredible. The fact that even chaos contains hidden structure and does not have maximum entropy is mind blowing. I need to get his book. I am curious to hopefully read about how this fractal geometry might effect the scattering amplitudes in particle collisions.
Finally a fresh idea! They don’t come along often. Right or wrong it’s thought provoking and worth looking into.
Check out the paper Tim co-authored with Sabine 'Rethinking Superdeterminism'. It's a stunning paper.
Robert was better prepared than his guest, which was great for both of them. The guest obviously spends a lot of time rolling around ideas in his head and talking to himself about the ideas. I can relate. After a while it is not so easy to explain those ideas to someone who has not also become very familiar with those ideas. You start out on level 23 and mortals can’t catch up. Robert knew the guest’s book backward and forward and could rescue his guest and his audience and fill in the blanks. Many blanks so the interview would have been a disaster with anyone but Robert. As it was, the interview was wonderful
Wonderful interview. I really appreciate how methodically you addressed the various aspects. I recently listened to an interviewer who just addressed the points that interested him and so didn't get a real understanding of the book so wasn't planning to buy it. I'm getting the book tomorrow. Thank you so much for your 22 years of service.
This is absolutely the best on ctt.
Absolutely fabulous session. Thank you Robert and Tim. Certainly gives traction to the need to contemplate the holistic. Leibniz proposed this in the seventeenth century. Hitherto, science has made enormous progress with its methodology being based on a "conquest of Nature" (quote from Werner Heisenberg)- a dedicated dissectionist approach predicated upon locality and the defined peoperties of independent entities and a focus on reductionism. Rightly, Palmer argues that "Methodological reductionism is a flawed philosophy". In an interview with Prof. Sir Fred Hoyle in the 1970s, Richard Feynman said (exact quote): "The one field that hasn't admitted any evolutionary question is physics. It might turn out that the laws are not the same all the time, and there is a historical, evolutionary question." In a further interview, Feynman made the following comment (exact quote): "The new problem-where we're stuck- we're stuck because all those methods don't work. If any of those methods would have worked, we would have gone through there; ........whatever we're going to look at, the method and the trick, and the way it's going to look is going to be very different from anything we've seen before." Bravo!
1:12:24 - Palmer’s quote of Wheeler resonates a lot with me and also his application of it to Fractal Physics, a fractal quality of the state space which defines our behavior and our behavior creating the fractal physics. Sounded like something I learned during my Master: In statistical physics there is the concept of synergetics, introduced by Hermann Haken from Laserphysics as a general principle how systems self organize far away from equilibrium such that the particles experience the organizing force of the standing wave (‘slavery of the wave’), which in turn is produced (reinforced) by the particles reacting to that wave. 1:14:33 However, with Palmer bridging into many worlds / neighboring worlds on the fractal geometry or later even wandering into religious topics discredits the scientific quality of his earlier thoughts and examples. Of course an afterlife would be nice, but the comforting quality of that thoughts sounds more wishful thinking than scientific.
I only recently came across his new book dought of uncertainly. I like his overall thesis. But I agree with you that his idea that just because our brains can run on around 20ws of power he automatically believes without any evidence that our loved one are literally in a after life waiting for us. Am skeptical of this silly notion from Tim. It discredits his Work. He believes we need religion to give us the purpose to discover what we are.. so what do you believe that he is discussing here? He seems to be all conjecture am not that impressed with his view.. he's imposing some teleology gods point of view.. 🤔😕
There is a difference between systems that are so complex they are “hard to predict” and other systems, whether simple or complex, that are just “unpredictable” no.? Two different problems really. One is an explanatory problem related to the capability of the explainer. The other is an issue of randomness or chaotic behaviour of the subject system itself.
Brilliant interview. Learnt so much from this conversation. That stupid banner put out by RUclips though.
got my bottle of wine ready to learn something. VAMOS!
I absolutely love to get to learn about how determinism can inherintly be uncertain yet extremely causal. I totally agree that ensemble averaging style of forced equations would immensly improve the quality in many other areas like economics, danger aversion, maybe even the way machine learning algorithims are fed, etc. However, I disagree with the argument that ensemble averaging or similar method is the best way to do weather forecast. It might be the most accurate at the moment, however there are fundamental problems with such random noise functions being forced fed to Navier Stokes.
In fact I did a PhD on the scale invariance of primitive equations in a general circulation method by investigating mesoscale stratified turbulence. We also did parameterization development and applicaion of scale invariant schemes to have a dynamically calculated/ad-hoc parameter independent turbulent parameterization. Not only we were able to identify some key mesoscale dynamics with this new parameterization, but we were also only able to simulate these phenomena using a scale invariant parameterization.
Returning back to the problem of noise introduced in ensemble averaging is that the noise functions violate the scale invariance of Navier Stokes. Mathematical expressions of the noise parameterization's violate the time symmetry of the equations. Since turbulence, just like many chaotic systems, is a scale invariant phenomena; even the chaos (which is attempted to be modeled in atm. models) is not properly represented due to this issue. At this point I must say the infinite number of degree of freedom (DoF) requirement of Navier Stokes is actually telling us that we will never have perfect forecast. Essentially this means the perfect knowledge of the initial conditions is required for perfect forecasting. Anything less than infinite number of DoF has no chance to be perfect. Therefore I agree that ensemeble averaging is the best tool we have. But not because it is the ultimate tool, but because it is literally the best we will ever do in terms of forecasting anything. And ultimate will never be reachable due to computational demands. I kinda Tim Palmer'ed Tim Palmer here by stating his main study object chaos theory does not say we have the key for forecast, as he claims, but it says we will never have it.
I am not sure if I disagree with him completely because they don't go that much deep on each topic. But I am kind of a climate change skeptic. Because the science on clearly energy imbalance suffering climate models would not indicate any reliable prediction for the actual change, however much significant it may be, of the clime. But not only that, the cloud microphysics is yet another incredibly complex process that demands parameterization and currently no model employs scale invariant schemes thus missing a very key part of the atmospehere energy balance: cloud reflectivity. As long as we cannot properly model the clouds, which are the small scale phenomena (which as Palmer also knows very well that the uncertainity is much bigger at those scales), we cannot complete the outgoing cloud reflected energy to the space thus our models would have an unbalanced energy budget. It is highly possible that the underrepresentation of cloud reflectivity might be behind this massively populously predicted global warming. I am absolutely not claiming that the climate is not changing. But this aspect is absolutely lacking theoretical consistency, and seems to perfectly explain the warming caused simply by an unbalanced energy budget.
And on top of all this there's a bigger major issue about current climate alarmism: The CO2 demonization. Just like clouds, the circulation of this tracer gas is a matter of small scale dynamics and is subject to same issues regarding the need for a scale invariant parameterization. However the topic is not at all discussed on this basis.
I like the way you argue, I’m carefully reading your comments and want to come back with a sensible and thought out answer, as I have bathed in climate science and climate modeling for the past 30 years or so. Standby.
Very nice.
Many novel ideas, great session.
Fantastic episode! I really like Tim Palmer's approach and would love to see Eric Weinstein's feedback on this topic in relation to his Geometric Unity theory.
Why does this not have (significantly) more views?
best intro music on youtube
might there be connection between human doubt and quantum uncertainty?
Postulate: The fundamental substrate of reality is Consciousness, possibly the creator's, who created a universe of infinite superposition based on fractal geometry; from the lowest state of entropy to the highest (Alpha/Omega).
All paths exist as probabilities (again in superposition) and the directional flow of consciousness (Freewill) appears as the collapse of the wave function.
Freewill may be possible in a Superdeterministic multiverse.
Doubt and uncertainty are etymologically distinct. Doubt ultimately relates being in two minds; whereas, certain comes from the root kri (to sieve, separate out, ie, originally the husks from flour). Thus, uncertain means indistinguishable (so not two), whereas in doubt, you have two minds or two alternatives.
does the chaos / uncertainty happen due to the fractal geometry? The system follows a more or less predictable path until the shift on the fractal geometry?
Hello Tim,
Can you apply,space in space 3eqations to predict horse racing because it is so unpredictable? Besides knowing the understanding the initial condition of a race?
Prof.Dr Nasir Fazal Cambridge USA 🇺🇸
are there long cycles for uncertainty?
for uncertainty, could one or more variables discontinue?
attractor of fractal geometry is similar to black hole? maybe quantum gravity in black hole?
are mental and social systems interconnected by quantum fields where very small changes can evolve into large widespread effects?
can chaos fractal geometry describe quantum gravity?
in chaos, are the same elements interacting differently, sometimes in similar ways, and at times one or more elements acts very differently?
can fractal geometry of chaos explain quantum field mechanics and space-time?
Independence from non-regenerative resources and the ecological transformation will be one of the greatest steps of mankind or even of life itself on this planet!
Intelectual roller coaster....! Marvelous .
non-linear differential equations pass the existence requirement for solutions but don't pass the uniqueness requirement. We can find solutions but there are infinite other solutions we can't find - that's why chaotic uncertainty is intrinsic to any mecanical system that has more the 2 bodies.
Might the attractor of fractal geometry be quantum gravity?
Could quantum gravity be non-linear? how might non-linear gravity in quantum fields?
quantum field mechanics has or is part of chaos fractal geometry?
maybe chaos fractal geometry related to gravity?
can chaos fractal geometry produce quantum uncertainty?
The thing is mind is capable of being unpredictable. It can create something brand new to reality, when it does so it opens up a whole new structure of potentials. Possibilities that did not exist before. Unknowable, undeterminable. Unless there is some aspect of the universe that knows all of the possible creations of mind and can calculate every single possibility that could come from them. If so then maybe it could be said that everything is determined, and we just navigate the options. So everything but experience is determined.
Yes just like measuring coastlines with different length increments. If the universe is a fractal we would need to find the smallest measurement. So a fractal, inside a hologram, which is actually a huge hard drive/memory. Everything we are not observing is on the RAM waiting for it's chance. No this is a serious episode I need to think about it more. I've been obsessed with fractals for 30 years but most people don't know what they are? I got bored with the subject but yes it feels keys. The rabbit hole is a fractal so we keep overlapping ... that makes the most sense of my confusion. LOL I could tell you were learning something ... So did I. Thanks
God's geometry is the Law!.
might quantum gravity bring uncertainty / chaos into weather and climate? as fractal geometry?
58:44 - "Pi" 1998 movie
quantum physic + Climate change = lots of funding.
They are getting tired walking in circles on a dead end street. But hey, let's grab climate change as a topic. Might sell a few books.
Now that the differential between the temperature of the Earths poles compared to the equator has become less , the jet stream is not being kept on course as much. So now emerges a new term in weather news ; " Meandering Jet Stream " , Dam scary if you ask me !!!!
Doubt's etymology root is the Greek 'Duo' meaning two---hence the notion 'to be in two minds', un decided.
To decide of course---etymologically---is to completely cut, sever, hence a decision cuts out doubt ie, you choose one of the options and go with that. Often we make choices to destroy doubt despise a lack of confidence in which option is better. We make an estimate or guess.
In science, there are many intellectual arrangements of ideas to explain things which have similar levels of evidence or lack of evidence. Many theories to explain nature that are abstract.
Uncertainty has a completely different etymology. The Latin Cerno comes from the Greek 'Krino'. The root is Kri---the Greek word for barley. Barley is ground (smashed, split apart) during the milling process, and a seive collects the fibrious outer hull, allowing through the dehulled barley to be bagged---> hence the key idea of certainty: to have separated things apart, to have aquired resolution required for judgement.
Uncertainty then is the inability to separate something into its components, and hence a lack of understanding.
If you look at holographic film, you see no coherent pattern that relates to the image that appears when shining the correct wavelength of lazer light through it. This inability to separate out the noise from the underlying pattern is uncertainty. You can have doubt due to uncertainty, but you can also have two theories ---both of which you understand and discern adequately--- but due to lack of evidence, you may not know which relates better to nature. This is ultimately the root cause of doubt---seeing plausible alternatives. In that case, physical evidence provides that missing certainty (or may do). Of course, sometimes evidence can be itself misleading.
quantum fields can introduce chaos and uncertainty into climate?
does climate behave like quantum system?
I'll listen again... but what was this concept of the chaotic, fractal attractor (1:02:30)? It sounds like Aristotle's Unmoved mover.... everything in the universe moves ultimately because everything wants to emulate as far as possible within its given nature, the unmoved mover. All those poetical Aristotelian medievals, Xian and Muslim, waxing eloquent about beauty as the ultimate being of the universe, and love its ultimate energy (consciousness is an aspect of everything). Odd how these fundamental ideas keep coming back around, getting tied into theoretical physics. Penrose slips into these concepts too, when the universe 'forgets' time and bangs again in its "new" epoch.
36:00 - Eddy, Eddy, n Eddy
4:07 He is completely mistaken - most people believe in stability and crave it even though when observe that what we are looking at is just chaos with low amplitude. People want stable cultures, economists (both neo-liberals and marxists) think their systems create stability and all humans like to stay in their own comfort bubble because they got used to the chaos there and think it's stable. Humans can't observe chaos - all we do is observe fractured periods of stability (therefore, not stability) and consider the high amplitude chaos "experimental error".
Did he mention Mandelbrot? I didn’t hear him but if he didn’t he should have
He mentioned Fractals.
climate is a quantum system?
My life is in order ***
a most pleasant fiction isn't it?
No. The expanding electrons do it all. So far off base. QM classicalized in 2010: Forgotten Physics website. Even beyond that: “The Final Theory: Rethinking Our Scientific Legacy “, Mark McCutcheon.
We are baby conscious agents and this universe is a created environment. Life on earth is our first day of school. Or sumpin like that
I choose to live in order and peace and i choose to say my world is not chaotic, only bad people say the world is chaotic***
decentralize political government
you should not talk about quantum physics if you failed to understand the uncertainties of climate change
The kind of reasoning presented in this Closer to Truth interview with Tim Palmer, a Royal Society Research Professor in the department of physics at the University of Oxford, is very close to my own decades old line of reasoning regarding the Nature of Reality and my pit peeve with some naive Philosophy deeply intertwined on how Physicists have misunderstood the fundamental nature of Reality in the past century since Bohr...summed up in a sentence, the epistemic box does not equal or fully fit the ontological one!
Nevertheless I disagree with the Free Will bit wishful thinking there...as what we do is what we must do according to the attractor who both informs environment and "observer" actions!
*Tim Palmer! (*PhD.) "Our .. chaotic planet!" .,. [ .."Gee .,. Ohm .,. Met .,. Tree'' .,.! .,.] Thank you!
I am the best climate engineer, we harvest rice 3x a year in my hometown ***
ROBERT, I HEAR YOU TALK ALOT ABOUT THE AFTERLIFE, SO LET ME LEAVE YOU WITH THIS; IF GOD COULD CREATE YOU ONCE, HE CAN DO IT AGAIN.
1:23:30 novel and fundamental way ! It’s novel only from the perspective of the thieves!
Nothing was new ! Polluted partially, the rest is has no value.
Thanks Amin! I’m sure you can tell us in great detail why you know that the dudes theory has no value. I’m looking forward to your great insights. I and look forward to seeing you win the Nobel prize in whatever field of science you represent 🎉.
I have a dog.
Developing countries emit 73% of CO2