Tony Seba is the reason I sold my investments in oil companies and switched to investing in renewables and electric cars. With how much the price of oil has gone down, I'm glad I sold when I did!
We have to understand the situation & be grateful, thankful & helpful..... As each day passes most of the businesses are hugely suffering & heading towards closures. ( Restaurants, wedding houses, entairtainment, hotels, airlines, all luxury brands, petrol vehicles manufacturing, petrol pumps, schools, colleges, resorts, hospitals, security services, Real estate, jewellery, events, malls, movie making, A very sad but true ground reality, lacs of jobs have been lost & many more to follow. Here we look ahead to coming days as our Evolet supply chain settles & new dealers, distributors are finalised & with time public gets educated towards the benifits of electric mobility & it's huge savings. Let's do our bit for creating a sustainable future for coming generations. Blessed to be in a business where the product is the need of the time. A necessity, Saves money, stops noise & poisonious air pollution, creates jobs & helps mother earth heal. ALL ARE NEED OF THE TIME & FUTURE!!! We all can only look forward to better days of business & growth with time. Time is in our favour. We are in the Right place at the right time. Just sheer blessings!!!. Let's Pray for saftey & wellbeing of all who suffer as some very tough times are ahead, economy dips further to new lows & then there is a long drawn recovery process in coming years. Here we are blessed as a Evolet family to create jobs, heal mother earth, help people save huge money, help reduce air & noise pollution, support government's in their push for Electric mobility & save precious forex for the country by reducing import of crude oil. Win Win for All. Let's share & care. Let's help all in our ways to spread happiness & make India a manufacturing hub for electric vehicles. Grateful to Hanuman & All Gods for being in this situation where each day only makes us grow stronger. These are real Blessings!!! Rissala Electric Motors - Warriors Belief & Mission. Healing Mother Earth!!! Sharing & Caring!!! Premium Quality - Affordable Prices & Best After Sales Service!!! Creating Jobs - Proudly Made1 in India!!! "Evolet" = Happy, Sustainable, Affordable, Green mobility for each & everyone. Just like our ageless companion - The Horse.
@@benfriedman5916 I think Tesla is a great and innovative company which has cool products, but I don't think they will achieve world dominance - this is what the current stock price suggests. Other car manufacturers are not stupid, maybe slow and delayed by internal forces which are part of the ICE business model, but these will find their market share as well.
One thing he's wrong about. You can't say that switching from owning a car to taking an automated Taxi would reduce traffic. You have the same amount of people moving around in individual vehicles, That they don't own the vehicle makes no difference.
@@KenjaTimu It would reduce parking though. That's still a good thing, even if traffic isn't reduced. More bike lanes and the widespread adoption of ebikes would significantly reduce vehicular traffic. I've been using a cargo ebike for a few weeks, and I'm amazed that I can carry my child, plus a normal load of groceries and work supplies in a footprint 1/6 the size of my car, 1/25 as heavy and at a cost of pennies to operate.
@@KenjaTimu I go back and forth on that issue in thought experiments. 1. reduction in driving burden WILL make longer commutes doable 2. all parking disappears. Many residential city streets are 4 lanes wide with 2 sucked up by parking and ultimately 2 billion vehicles used 5% of the time reduced to 100 million used 100% of the time frees up unbelievable amounts of space. Will the increase in flow efficiency overcome the increased volume of miles traveled? unclear. What I do know...is that disruption we can't even see yet will occur long before AI LV 5 saturates 100%. Musks Boring holes seem incredibly slow...for the current 4 machine fleet. How about 100,000 of them?
@@dwolff4127 - You would still need parking. Where are all those autonomous taxis going to go when they don't have a fare? Also demand isn't constant. You have peak hours. You're going to need a lot more taxis than you need most of the time. How are you going to give up your car if the robot taxi isn't reliable during peak hours? (when you have to go to work!). So you're still going to need a significant amount of parking. The idea that the robot cars are going to be driving around 100% of the time and have reliable service at the same is not realistic or possible. Unless you have them driving around in circles for no reason and that would be a big hit to efficiency.
@@dwolff4127 - Musks' Tunnel is a scam. It's not a good or new idea. He's lying about his digging machines being way more efficient than everybody else. It's not possible to make a vacuum tube that large. The pressure would increase exponentially the bigger you make it. Thunderf00t made videos debunking it. If you take away the vaccuum tube away it's a shitty single person subway. My personal favorite claim is that his tunnels are going to work both ways at the same time. Because reasons. The whole thing is some gimmick to sell more Teslas. This is the same guy who talked about using compressed air rocket boosters to make Teslas fly. He's doing everything he can to make electric cars sexy. It makes sense in that framework.
I listened to Mr. Seba about a decade ago and knew he understood what was coming... it must feel good to be so on point. The disruption is swelling like a wave off the coast and the impact will be felt in the mountains.
We have to understand the situation & be grateful, thankful & helpful..... As each day passes most of the businesses are hugely suffering & heading towards closures. ( Restaurants, wedding houses, entairtainment, hotels, airlines, all luxury brands, petrol vehicles manufacturing, petrol pumps, schools, colleges, resorts, hospitals, security services, Real estate, jewellery, events, malls, movie making, A very sad but true ground reality, lacs of jobs have been lost & many more to follow. Here we look ahead to coming days as our Evolet supply chain settles & new dealers, distributors are finalised & with time public gets educated towards the benifits of electric mobility & it's huge savings. Let's do our bit for creating a sustainable future for coming generations. Blessed to be in a business where the product is the need of the time. A necessity, Saves money, stops noise & poisonious air pollution, creates jobs & helps mother earth heal. ALL ARE NEED OF THE TIME & FUTURE!!! We all can only look forward to better days of business & growth with time. Time is in our favour. We are in the Right place at the right time. Just sheer blessings!!!. Let's Pray for saftey & wellbeing of all who suffer as some very tough times are ahead, economy dips further to new lows & then there is a long drawn recovery process in coming years. Here we are blessed as a Evolet family to create jobs, heal mother earth, help people save huge money, help reduce air & noise pollution, support government's in their push for Electric mobility & save precious forex for the country by reducing import of crude oil. Win Win for All. Let's share & care. Let's help all in our ways to spread happiness & make India a manufacturing hub for electric vehicles. Grateful to Hanuman & All Gods for being in this situation where each day only makes us grow stronger. These are real Blessings!!! Rissala Electric Motors - Warriors Belief & Mission. Healing Mother Earth!!! Sharing & Caring!!! Premium Quality - Affordable Prices & Best After Sales Service!!! Creating Jobs - Proudly Made1 in India!!! "Evolet" = Happy, Sustainable, Affordable, Green mobility for each & everyone. Just like our ageless companion - The Horse.
Would be about time to post a few updates, Tony: where are we now? I absolutely engulf these videos, can't stop listening to this stuff! Great great analysis! Humanity needs to know more about this stuff. More bright minds like Mr. Seba.
It's the most fascinating aspect - he presents nearly the same speech to an "open mouth" audience since many years, and he doesn't need to correct any predictions
@@rogerstarkey5390 Even LiDAR may shortly get disrupted ... by ViDAR -- Tesla is working on mapping "temporally consistent" depth information onto each incoming camera pixel, by processing across several contiguous video frames through a self-supervising neural network, producing a hi-def moving point-cloud of the surroundings, the same method mentioned by Karpathy on Autonomy Day (Apr.2109) as likely to be implemented for generating real-time 3D pseudo-LiDAR from vision (a.k.a. "ViDAR") on HW3 for FSD: ruclips.net/video/Ucp0TTmvqOE/видео.html If this pans out in the next year or so, it could largely destroy the market for automotive LiDAR and leave Waymo and Co uncomfortably parked on their prohibitively expensive sensor suites. Or, as Musk put it, in terms of competition, they are "doomed, doomed, I tell you!"
I sincerely hope this prediction will come true, it is a well presented one, very convincing. Some think that solving the discarded batteries contamination threat must be included in this assessment to complete the workable package. The tremendous shot of hope and optimism, financial and environmentally, is very much appreciated and needed. Optimists like Mr.Tony Seba should be making headlines in the media to restore hope that humanity is not all destructive to the environment.
I’m in Tesla options and stock 100% . I’m selling my house and buying more. Tony’s analysis is so compelling and Tesla is the clear leader in this tech convergence tsunami.
Bravo. and the above arguments don't refer to the lack of buses on the street, whereby mostly empty buses, much of the time are NOT economical in fuel per rider-mile. Owners can also 'carpool' their autonomous CARS, allowing them to join the fleets out there, servincing the sole-rider or shared rinder plans, AND as riders get more and more familiar with the process, indidual enterpreneurship in transport may grow, not shrink, also. to share... ALL while being way, greener. I'd say mobile surveillance in EACH vehicle will be a growth industry too. Who wants to share with a psychopath?
I love this video every time I watch it. Every bit of this presentation is true. Everyone should inform as many people as possible to invest as he directs.
Tony Seba should go on Autoline. The latest show had 3 guests that were convinced about the fact that EVs will not be mainstream for another... 30 years! So a Mastodon, Sabre tooth Tiger and Woolly Mammoth went down a grassy valley 13 000 years ago...
18:45 The combination is double exponentional - What does this mean, despite sounding really fast? Factor a (e.g. hardware) f_a(t) = e^(a*t), factor b (e.g. software) f_b(t) = e^(b*t). Together with both factors a and b: f_a(t) * f_b(t) = e^(a*t) * e^(b*t) = e^(a*t + b*t) = e^((a+b)*t) - It follows that the multiplication of two exponential functions still yields an exponential function.
Been watching him make the same presentation for about 5 years. He's barely had to change a thing because he's either been bang on with his predictions or a tad cautious, if anything. I think he likes to freshen it up a little now and then. The big take-away is that technology disruption occurs in an S-Curve [or even a J-Curve these days], not in a slow linear adoption rate that TV analysts like to tell us. They are completely wrong and TS is 👍.
It is always a S-curve, even if the first part looks like a J-curve (exponential). There is no exponential growth in a finite world - at least not for unlimited time. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function and in ressource economics, the first derivative is en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_curve
@@ramblerandy2397 If you have a J and add another (180° rotated) J to the top: voila, that is the S-curve. And exactly this the logistic cuve: df/dt ~ f(t)*(1-f(t)). In the beginning the exponential growth is dominating df/dt ~ f(t)*(~1), in the middle there is a transition from the high growth to a decline phase with an inflexion point, and after that the growth boundary (here at 1) is taking over and the dominating feature is the exponentially slowing down like in radioactive decay: df/dt ~ (~1)*(1-f(t)) In consumer markets, then there is no "stealing" of consumers from competitors with a better product, it is just the replacement which is bought. Then the cutthroat competition between different market players offering similar products takes over.
Another thing to consider: One Tesla EV robotaxi can do the work, over its life, of sixteen individually-owned ICE cars. You'll have the car travel four times the mileage per year versus today's typical car, and the car lasts four times as long (we're assuming a bunch of Hondas and Toyotas that last 250,000 miles, and that's very optimistic; we're probably really talking 175,000 miles per car, corresponding to about 23 ICE cars). Do you know how much steel that would save? Steel's very energy-intensive to make and mold. Big GHG savings right there.
Not to mention too that most of a Tesla's body is made of aluminium, not steel. The exception would be the Cybertruck haha, that thing is made of rocket-grade steel.
Michael Ball: But Tesla fanbois can't have it both ways. If the car market shrinks by a factor of 64 (4x for lasting as long, and 16x for the private vehicle market converting to robo-taxis), then there go about 98% of potential Tesla sales. Oops. Making assumptions re tech. and math have more than one sort of consequence.
"EVOLET" The Future Is Electric.!!! "Nothing can stop an idea whose time has come". Responsibility is huge on OEMs. The way fwd for OEMs is multiple partnerships to localise, seeking to ensure that EVs become mainstream & affordable. Rissala welcomes the idea of working with partners on electric vehicle technology. Rissala strongly believes that OEMs need to come together to pool recourses & create a much better eco system for EVs in India. Its sensible to collaborate & co-create solutions to realise the eco dream. We need to be the game changers now that we are leading this fantastic change. Its effects are going to be un-imanagable for the country, its people & the world with every seventh human being on this planet being an Indian. Advantages to the country from the perspective of energy security & competitive advantage too, electric mobility will reduce oil import costs, lower trade deficits, & limit vulnerability to oil supply disruptions & process shocks, finally electric mobility will deliver a host of environment benefits , including cleaner air & savings of over 87 billion Usd/Yr. or 30,000 Crore per day from imports. OEMs have to work closely with specialised technology companies & power train technologies need to come from tech providers. Its a win - win for all. From ten Lacs (one million) barrels of oil use daily presently, your decision to shift to Electric mobility, its guaranteed to reduce to one Lac (100,000) barrels daily by 2025 & further to 10,000 barrels by 2030. Earth's healing has started. Mother Earth is Smiling!!! Thanks to the human spirit!!! Thanks to Indians shifting to Electric mobility. Three Cheers!!!! "It is not the strongest that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change." We have to be thankful to gods for being in these times & situation where such huge changes are warranted & in our hands as OEMs & with the government's extraordinary positive push in terms of policies, subsidies & support in all ways possible. Rissala Electric Motors - Warriors Belief & Mission. Healing Mother Earth!!! Sharing & Caring!!! Premium Quality - Affordable Prices & Best After Sales Service!!! Creating Jobs - Proudly Made in India!!! "Evolet" = Happy, Sustainable, Affordable, Green mobility for each & everyone. Just like our ageless companion - The Horse.
Mr. Seba is a modest man. He shows about Moore's Law, Kryder's Law, Hendy's Law, Butter's Law but he doesn't use Seba's Law for his prediction of Li-Ion battery price forecast.
Not just that. With transportation cheaper (Taas) and faster (less traffic) travelling from Suburbs or far from Suburbs would be easier. That could make people saying no to costly cities.
I think it might a bit, but I think there will be a massive investment in residential space. With no more parking requirements, mega towers can be constructed allowing an inflow of people who want to live the city life. Remove cars from the equation and the idea of living in a city becomes much more desirable.
If you ever needed something to look forward to and feel disheartened about what is happening today... this video will make you want to keep moving forward to see these things happen. It's not as far away as it feels.
I have literally just now discovered Tony Seba. It has been very interesting to watch Tony Seba's talk from 2017 immediately followed by this one in 2019 and see how the predictions have either come to pass or that the green shoots of them are showing. In the UK GridServe is one to take a look at - huge investment from financiers who probably would not have touched them a few years ago, making possible their particular dream contribution. I do not particularly look forward to TAAS having spent the past 46 years addicted to personal transportation. But I do recognise that it has to come. Plus that the young [today's] generations, particularly in the metropolis areas, feel little need to own a personal transportation vehicle and would take up TAAS in a heartbeat. But I also recognise the distinct Mobility revolution that TAAS would represent to many - if the prices are commoditised and affordable (no, we don't all want to be ferried around in Teslas at premium prices!). It is now just over halfway through 2021 and I'd love to see one of his talks from this year.
I took delivery of my 2021 Tesla Y Sept 30, 2021. My delivery price tax tag and title was $69,000 with the FSD. Same configuration with FSD is now $80,000. I could sell my Y and make money. I am on pace for 40,000 miles annually. My fuel and maintenance savings make my car payment. I fully expect to get 400,000 miles. And when the Cyber Truck is available I will purchase that and reduce the use of the Y, so that both will probably last me and my wife the rest of our lives. The Y along with the Cyber truck will be my last vehicle purchases. I am 61. Battery replacement will be an interesting option in the future when I can replace my current battery with a 325 range with a 600 mile range battery. Even if it cost $15,000 to replace it would be worth once the vehicle is paid for in 6 1/2 years. In Tennessee where I live you can transfer a vehicle to a family member sales tax free so that if I want to continue to buy the latest and greatest and can give my kids or grandkids my old Tesla. I truly expect these will be lifetime vehicles similar to airplanes in that that the fuselage of many airplanes is over 25 years old with the components upgraded overtime.
Financial institutions and insurance companies need to factor in Climate risks and start to divest from fossil fuels. Companies need to factor in Climate risks into their business projections.
Agree, but what Tony is talking about happens even without any reference to climate change. Falling costs of clean energy and clean transportation causes the disruption. A side effect will be much lower Carbon emissions, which will improve and hopefully reverse climate change long term.
The term "double exponential" is used wrongly in this talk (18:33). If you multiply together two exponential functions the result is still only exponential, though with a shorter doubling time. But these asymptotic descriptions are not very suited to describing short-term growth anyway.
Google/Waymo is probably going to be bigger, but Tesla has a chance to have its place. It's the only new car brand I'd consider, today; FSD is the key.
@Damnit Bobby Tesla will take back and reuse lease return cars to save money on developing its own fleet service. If they can get AV driving software going faster than you think, or their battery business (Maxwell acquisition) is better than we expect, then if you keep shorting them, you won't get to keep that free Tesla. Heck, if that's all it costs you, you'll be lucky. On the "disposable car" part: Tesla's future million mile battery (Maxwell tech) on top of the million mile motor they already have, divided by 90k miles/year = eleven year service life. Even if that brought $15k/year in revenue (half of Tesla's estimates), no sane fleet owner would have a $15k/car purchase limit for that much life.
He's forgetting people all go to school and work at the same time. And so cars will park as usual. Unless people work a greater variety of hours in city centre. But for big cities, especially care givers, home workers and mum's or dads at homes, Why own a car? Agree.
Theres a reason google and apple are absent in the VR space, they became too slow and lack the early vision. Sony samsung and facebook are there already. RUclips is also destroying itself with banning and censoring channels and scam ads are still ongoing.
With TaaS, we still have lots of people wanting to go places at the same time. We call that Rush Hour. Unless that goes away we need a huge number of TaaS vehicles.
Taas will be more flexible in pricing though. My train only gets cheaper at rediculous offpeak hours making it nonsense. Taas will be able to price much more flexible (different per minute) and flatten the curve.
There is almost no change between the two pictures at the beginning. The first one showed mobile personal space and effortless travel, the second one also did. if in a third picture there were flying cars, the change would have been minimal, because it would also show mobile personal space and effortless travel. The only thing that changed between the first and second pictures was the technology used, but it ended up applied to the same concept. The true disruption occurred only to the horse industry, which ended up adapting in the end and changed it's niche. However, the horse industry was disrupted only because motor/engine technology was more practical than horses, and because those involved had the intention to make the technology affordable to everyone; making it cheaper in little time. The monolithic smartphone was more practical than the feature phones of the time, and those involved were also willing to make it affordable to all. Electric cars are a different matter, because the ones involved have no interest in making it affordable to everyone, and are starting to hold it as a luxury product. The 35k tesla was just a marketing stunt, and is now gone; and now we have a bunch of new manufacturers with EV's above 100k. The "affordable" EV's in china are not true cars, as they can't maintain highway speeds, have no safety at all, and have overall appalling quality. Self driving technology is going very fast and will reach and surpass all expectations, but it's adoption will still be slow regardless. Whenever you narrow down the envelope of survival of a system, the regulation around said system becomes more strict, and aviation is an example. As manufacturers of self driving systems are aware of this, they will remain unwilling to assume the responsibility for accidents, instead keeping the responsibility at the drivers' hands; never removing the steering wheels from their cars, and disclaiming that drivers must pay attention at all times, in case they need to take control (which makes self driving technologies practically useless). People will of course ignore the disclaimers and fatal accidents will occur. This will reach a point where the authorities will intervene, and if manufacturers remain unwilling to take responsibility, the adoption of self driving technologies may become even slower. Transportation as a service is only cheaper if you consider ownership of cars costing upwards of 50k, very high fees for parking in large cities, and very cheap rates for ride hailing apps. There is also the fact that cars are extensions of one's personal space, as said above, and in TAAS, you have no personal space, like in a cab. Car sharing and subscription models are always more expensive than owning a car, and the mileage limits mean it's only adequate for short commutes in large cities. To make matters worse, all parking potentially freed will be taken up by TAAS vehicles waiting for passengers. Oil prices will *never* go down for more than 3 months. The prices may crash at first, but the producers and distributors will hold the supplies and create artificial scarcity to increase the prices again.
And all this without even having to mention all the other benefits of smart fleet vehicles... no more stop signs or stop lights, cars drafting inches behind one another because they know where one another are going. The cars are allowed to go faster more safely than ever with no traffic jams, suddenly making our crowded road system more than adequate. I wish cities would STOP putting billions into 100 year old technology of light rail. Why bother walking a mile to a train station and having it stop at 10 stops before your destination, then drop you off a mile from where you need to go? You can just use your phone to order a self driven car to whiz to to where you need to go for next to nothing.
It's late 2021. We're NOWHERE CLOSE to practical and approved real world L4 fleet deployable city by city robo-taxis. 2022 looks impossible already. Leaders like Mobileye will be doing some testing of this om a small scale in 2022. Tesla will continue making incremental improvements to FSD Beta, and it will likely still be L2 in 2022. So 2 years out, and his prediction is already WAY OFF re approved robo-taxi fleet claim for 2021. Predicting the future is HARD, especially re accuracy in timing. And I DO think the leaders like Mobileye will likely have practical L4 city by city robo-taxi fleets in various big cities in 2025 or so -- assuming the regulators, lawyers, insurance folks, etc. will allow it to happen within a year of when the tech. is ready.
Believe me. Nothing is gonna be cheaper! The capitalistic world wil never alow that to happen. When we converted from old glow light bulbs into powersawing bulbs I thought yes now I will half my electricity bill but the only thing that has happened is that it has doubled.
27:10 the unused carparks will be used for EVTOL landing pads. EVTOLs will extend the one hour commute range 300km or more making cheap rural land available for housing. Afortable housing could create a baby boom like the car suburbs of the 50's did. Passenger rail will become obsolete.
Great insight and I'll bet very few urban planners are even aware of Tony. Maybe the Circular Economy folks in EU, but given his track record already, this projection should be mandatory prep everywhere. Rural Land: His new project "rethink AG" says Ag land use will be severely reduced-soon, so there's another challenge or opportunity for planners.
I was going to discuss that. But i thought again. Those, with AI flying assistance, wouldn't kill as much people as cars did all over last decades. They're going to be expensive, though.
@@lafandenuel5605 Agreed. Disturbing to hear the mfr.'s estimate of costs "same as taxis". Yikes! Who wants to take a taxi 50 miles? So something's gotta give or UAVs will be for corps only and not so useful.
Thanks, well on point. Regarding the autonomous driving + EV disruption, the question is, can we make as many autonomous EV´s as we need in such a short time. Evidently Tesla is very close to full autonomy and ramping its production numbers very fast, but still have a very small overall passenger car market share. Maybe they could license the Autopilot technology to others, and maybe others will be able to replicate in a few years what Tesla is doing. Waymo is already level 4 -5 autonomous but their sensor suite is relatively expensive and might not work under bad wheather conditions.
Read his book. Recommend highly. The future is now and no politician is going to bring back (fill in the blank__________). Too much is happening too quickly to fight a rear guard action.
Aguz Rodri Hi Tony. Great presentation. Question- For planners, engineers and policy makers, what advice on preparing for the year 2030 you have (transportation sector)? From roads to mass transit to funding. As you know the main source of funding for transportation is the gas tax, and this future will not have any gas tax. Thank you
We are living in a pivotal movement in India's history, it is a time of opportunity, inclusive growth & transformation. Our dynamic government wants to bring in Electric Vehicles swiftly to tackle pollution & save 87 Billions Usd wasted in import of oil. We cannot continue to import all that oil. We have to address this problem of air & noise pollution which we feel so deeply about & are in anguish. Let's awaken the child in ourselves. Its OK to feel the pain & anxiety but it is not OK to do nothing about it. "Let's be the change" in helping in healing our planet. Mother Earth belongs to all living creatures & we have no right to destroy it for our greed. Its about sharing & caring. The shift to EVs is not just a choice but a NECESSITY for us Indians. Advantages to our country from the perspective of energy security & competitive advantage too are huge, electric mobility will reduce oil import costs, lower trade deficits, and limit vulnerability to oil supply disruptions and process shocks, finally electric mobility will deliver a host of environment benefits , including cleaner air & savings of over 87 billion Usd/Yr or 30,000 Crore per day. To move towards a stellar growth, adverse efforts of current mode of transport needs to be countered. Government will stand to save 30,000 Crore per day in revenue from fuel imports, as we import most of it, so net gain is environment, consumer gain and our social responsibility to mother Earth". This is eventually leading to a paradigm shift, making electric vehicles the future of global transport.”.The outcome is going to be unimaginable!! Unfathomable!! Rissala production capacity for the WHOLE year is 6 lac vehicles, & ours is the largest Electric Vehicles manufracturing Plants in the country. Sustainability, Affordability and Excellence are just some of the factors that we rely on to deliver world class electric vehicles. So 100 more plants of our size & production capability also cannot fulfill the demand for next 5 yrs. Though it's great for any startup company & we can't be complaining, but expectations of people, Distributor s/Dealers, Government, Corporate houses, Companies, Industry have been tooo high for a startup company which is just about 18 month old. Being a completely debt free company with no banking lines, loans etc we have pumped in & need to pump in all the funds & more. REM has to just keep the basic expectations & demands fulfilled to best of our ability. Frankly it's always about pursuit for money in business, Rissala has had prime motive of doing all we can to help heal mother earth & reduce this deadly pollution. Money always follows when your aim & focus is clear. With India having 22 of the world's most polluted cities. Pollution is the most prime concern for each youth today & luckily we are the youngest nation in the world with 75% of our population below 35yrs of age. The sudden demand boost specially after many States Govts, having passed very strong, positive, EVs policies, It has taken all manufactures by surprise. Thus the young Rissala team has had to work 24x7 & need to do so for till this Yr end to stabilize & get things on track to get maximum milage out of this god sent oppurtunity. This sudden demand spurt has kept us on our toes as each penny counts & raising funds to fulfill confirmed orders is a situation we r in & needs to be responded well. God's been very kind. Looks like too many blessings recieved from millions of God's together. A fantastic situation but extremely overpowering. . I request all my friends to anyhow-somehow surely indulge into EVs business, where ever they are. It's the Future. Wishing you Health, Josh & Happiness!!! Ally. Rissala Electric Motors - Warriors Belief & Mission. Healing Mother Earth!!! Sharing & Caring!!! Premium Quality - Affordable Prices & Best After Sales Service!!! Creating Jobs - Proudly Made in India!!! "Evolet" = Happy, Sustainable, Affordable, Green mobility for each & everyone. Just like our ageless companion - The Horse.
Excellent presentation, really eye-opening and interesting, the only thing I did not agree with Tony, was when he mentioned the operating systems, Apple IOS, Microsoft Windows, then he did not research well enough to verify that actually the #1 OS most used today is Linux, all cloud infrastructures use Linux, and regarding Android, it is also Linux, even Microsoft uses now Linux for their Cloud offering Azure ^^, other than that Tony, great presentation.
@@dluchin1998 Not with the AV/AI driving part. He probably knew he'd have to partner with Google GM, or the like, and didn't want to commoditize his cars.
Good presentation.. Specially for people who think money 24x7..:)... No talk on jobs lost post market trauma... Even if additional jobs might be created what about upskill curve of general population and its impact to society, crime rate, unemployment, etc... To cherry top automation is already ensuring humans become irrelevant in next decade..
I am from India. JIO mobile phone provider disrupted ALL the other players by giving free, fast, unlimited internet for a year in 2016...and now has the largest paid subscriber base. Most other major players are going into losses while JIO is making profits and branching out into aerospace, mobile devices, TV, mobile payments, devices, 5G...and much more. DISRUPTIONS are ALWAYS by a new guy...old bosses just can't think of it.
@Damnit Bobby The convenience factor alone, will be worth it. If you have a wife, she'll be screaming in your ear for it -- and at that point, you'll wish you paid just $7k for it.
To say nothing of the 45% GHG decrease in the agricultural sector, also by 2030 (Rethink Food and Agriculture). It's time Tony took a seat at the highest levels of climate strategy.
And I hold a disruptive understanding of word energy that could transform the consciousness of the entire planet - from power over or power against to power with; from a money (what can I take from you) economy to a giving, receiving, sharing, caring, mutually respective and mutually supportive humanity.
The only thing I disagree with is the thinking around fleets. Look at peak our traffic. You’ll need a fleet that size to cope/fulfil the demand under this model. I don’t see that happening. Generally, we all need to be at a place at a certain time, and they all tend to be at the same time. So 96% of a car’s time may be unused, but 96% or all cars are probably in use at the same time.
Loved your work in the film 2040....would like to see it more publicised as a totals solution for economics vs commonsense, and add your thoughts on that...
I don't think small parking lots will go away because autonomous cars and their passengers still need safe space to disembark. So there needs to be runway shaped strips with multiple dropoff and pickup locations, very different shape from the parking lot square but same size. However for huge parking lots like Walmart etc, it's up to these private companies what they will replace the lots with. Probably more building lol. It's weird because it's front end space not back end, so they can't build AI machine operate storage structures..maybe they will sell the lots for little recreational plazas or other businesses that compliment their business
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Tony Seba is the reason I sold my investments in oil companies and switched to investing in renewables and electric cars. With how much the price of oil has gone down, I'm glad I sold when I did!
Same. Sold XOM and bought TSLA.
Unbelievable timing ⏱ 💹
Now wats price of oil?
We have to understand the situation & be grateful, thankful & helpful.....
As each day passes most of the businesses are hugely suffering & heading towards closures. ( Restaurants, wedding houses, entairtainment, hotels, airlines, all luxury brands, petrol vehicles manufacturing, petrol pumps, schools, colleges, resorts, hospitals, security services, Real estate, jewellery, events, malls, movie making, A very sad but true ground reality, lacs of jobs have been lost & many more to follow.
Here we look ahead to coming days as our Evolet supply chain settles & new dealers, distributors are finalised & with time public gets educated towards the benifits of electric mobility & it's huge savings. Let's do our bit for creating a sustainable future for coming generations.
Blessed to be in a business where the product is the need of the time. A necessity, Saves money, stops noise & poisonious air pollution, creates jobs & helps mother earth heal. ALL ARE NEED OF THE TIME & FUTURE!!!
We all can only look forward to better days of business & growth with time. Time is in our favour.
We are in the Right place at the right time. Just sheer blessings!!!.
Let's Pray for saftey & wellbeing of all who suffer as some very tough times are ahead, economy dips further to new lows & then there is a long drawn recovery process in coming years.
Here we are blessed as a Evolet family to create jobs, heal mother earth, help people save huge money, help reduce air & noise pollution, support government's in their push for Electric mobility & save precious forex for the country by reducing import of crude oil. Win Win for All. Let's share & care. Let's help all in our ways to spread happiness & make India a manufacturing hub for electric vehicles.
Grateful to Hanuman & All Gods for being in this situation where each day only makes us grow stronger.
These are real Blessings!!!
Rissala Electric Motors - Warriors Belief & Mission.
Healing Mother Earth!!!
Sharing & Caring!!!
Premium Quality - Affordable Prices & Best After Sales Service!!!
Creating Jobs - Proudly Made1 in India!!!
"Evolet" = Happy, Sustainable, Affordable, Green mobility for each & everyone. Just like our ageless companion - The Horse.
@@benfriedman5916 I think Tesla is a great and innovative company which has cool products, but I don't think they will achieve world dominance - this is what the current stock price suggests. Other car manufacturers are not stupid, maybe slow and delayed by internal forces which are part of the ICE business model, but these will find their market share as well.
Who's here from Solving the Money Problem ?
Haha... im here
😂 😂 just finished with him now
👍🏼😀 Here!
Yup, I’m here
+1
He paints a very beautiful and affordable future.
Let all hope and work that he is right for the better time for all of us !
Future is great !
YES!!
He is why I bought Tesla stock in 2016 and will keep it at least until 2025.
Hold!! We'll all be tempted to sell
@@samdavisok how is that? I am tempted to buy more but my bank account disagrees...
Hold till 2030 if you can!!
@@ILIKKA If the share price is $30,000 presplit, I bet you’ll be tempted to sell
@@samdavisok of course since the valuation would be around 6tril. But its 400B and I am tempted to buy not sell.
The man, the myth, the LEGEND who accurately swammied it all in 2014. I bow to your far superior communion with the disruption gods. Keep
One thing he's wrong about. You can't say that switching from owning a car to taking an automated Taxi would reduce traffic. You have the same amount of people moving around in individual vehicles, That they don't own the vehicle makes no difference.
@@KenjaTimu It would reduce parking though. That's still a good thing, even if traffic isn't reduced. More bike lanes and the widespread adoption of ebikes would significantly reduce vehicular traffic. I've been using a cargo ebike for a few weeks, and I'm amazed that I can carry my child, plus a normal load of groceries and work supplies in a footprint 1/6 the size of my car, 1/25 as heavy and at a cost of pennies to operate.
@@KenjaTimu I go back and forth on that issue in thought experiments.
1. reduction in driving burden WILL make longer commutes doable
2. all parking disappears. Many residential city streets are 4 lanes wide with 2 sucked up by parking and ultimately 2 billion vehicles used 5% of the time reduced to 100 million used 100% of the time frees up unbelievable amounts of space.
Will the increase in flow efficiency overcome the increased volume of miles traveled? unclear.
What I do know...is that disruption we can't even see yet will occur long before AI LV 5 saturates 100%. Musks Boring holes seem incredibly slow...for the current 4 machine fleet. How about 100,000 of them?
@@dwolff4127 - You would still need parking. Where are all those autonomous taxis going to go when they don't have a fare? Also demand isn't constant. You have peak hours. You're going to need a lot more taxis than you need most of the time. How are you going to give up your car if the robot taxi isn't reliable during peak hours? (when you have to go to work!). So you're still going to need a significant amount of parking.
The idea that the robot cars are going to be driving around 100% of the time and have reliable service at the same is not realistic or possible. Unless you have them driving around in circles for no reason and that would be a big hit to efficiency.
@@dwolff4127 - Musks' Tunnel is a scam. It's not a good or new idea. He's lying about his digging machines being way more efficient than everybody else. It's not possible to make a vacuum tube that large. The pressure would increase exponentially the bigger you make it. Thunderf00t made videos debunking it.
If you take away the vaccuum tube away it's a shitty single person subway. My personal favorite claim is that his tunnels are going to work both ways at the same time. Because reasons. The whole thing is some gimmick to sell more Teslas. This is the same guy who talked about using compressed air rocket boosters to make Teslas fly. He's doing everything he can to make electric cars sexy. It makes sense in that framework.
I listened to Mr. Seba about a decade ago and knew he understood what was coming... it must feel good to be so on point. The disruption is swelling like a wave off the coast and the impact will be felt in the mountains.
We have to understand the situation & be grateful, thankful & helpful.....
As each day passes most of the businesses are hugely suffering & heading towards closures. ( Restaurants, wedding houses, entairtainment, hotels, airlines, all luxury brands, petrol vehicles manufacturing, petrol pumps, schools, colleges, resorts, hospitals, security services, Real estate, jewellery, events, malls, movie making, A very sad but true ground reality, lacs of jobs have been lost & many more to follow.
Here we look ahead to coming days as our Evolet supply chain settles & new dealers, distributors are finalised & with time public gets educated towards the benifits of electric mobility & it's huge savings. Let's do our bit for creating a sustainable future for coming generations.
Blessed to be in a business where the product is the need of the time. A necessity, Saves money, stops noise & poisonious air pollution, creates jobs & helps mother earth heal. ALL ARE NEED OF THE TIME & FUTURE!!!
We all can only look forward to better days of business & growth with time. Time is in our favour.
We are in the Right place at the right time. Just sheer blessings!!!.
Let's Pray for saftey & wellbeing of all who suffer as some very tough times are ahead, economy dips further to new lows & then there is a long drawn recovery process in coming years.
Here we are blessed as a Evolet family to create jobs, heal mother earth, help people save huge money, help reduce air & noise pollution, support government's in their push for Electric mobility & save precious forex for the country by reducing import of crude oil. Win Win for All. Let's share & care. Let's help all in our ways to spread happiness & make India a manufacturing hub for electric vehicles.
Grateful to Hanuman & All Gods for being in this situation where each day only makes us grow stronger.
These are real Blessings!!!
Rissala Electric Motors - Warriors Belief & Mission.
Healing Mother Earth!!!
Sharing & Caring!!!
Premium Quality - Affordable Prices & Best After Sales Service!!!
Creating Jobs - Proudly Made1 in India!!!
"Evolet" = Happy, Sustainable, Affordable, Green mobility for each & everyone. Just like our ageless companion - The Horse.
He even predicted that Russia would invade someone (not specifically Ukraine) in the early 2020s. That is just uncanny.
This man is legendary.
Thank you so much Dr Seba
I watch your speeches for years now and I am so glad I did.
Would be about time to post a few updates, Tony: where are we now?
I absolutely engulf these videos, can't stop listening to this stuff! Great great analysis! Humanity needs to know more about this stuff. More bright minds like Mr. Seba.
I absolutely love this. Well done Tony 👍
Same speech since years. But now he is talking about that what happened. 👍👍
It's the most fascinating aspect - he presents nearly the same speech to an "open mouth" audience since many years, and he doesn't need to correct any predictions
@@peacemountain07 the godfather of prediction!
This is the first one I know of that's shortened to 30 min. To see most concepts fleshed out a little more you can go to any previous 45-min version.
@@peacemountain07
The only real adjustment is LiDAR.
@@rogerstarkey5390 Even LiDAR may shortly get disrupted ... by ViDAR -- Tesla is working on mapping "temporally consistent" depth information onto each incoming camera pixel, by processing across several contiguous video frames through a self-supervising neural network, producing a hi-def moving point-cloud of the surroundings, the same method mentioned by Karpathy on Autonomy Day (Apr.2109) as likely to be implemented for generating real-time 3D pseudo-LiDAR from vision (a.k.a. "ViDAR") on HW3 for FSD: ruclips.net/video/Ucp0TTmvqOE/видео.html
If this pans out in the next year or so, it could largely destroy the market for automotive LiDAR and leave Waymo and Co uncomfortably parked on their prohibitively expensive sensor suites. Or, as Musk put it, in terms of competition, they are "doomed, doomed, I tell you!"
I sincerely hope this prediction will come true, it is a well presented one, very convincing. Some think that solving the discarded batteries contamination threat must be included in this assessment to complete the workable package. The tremendous shot of hope and optimism, financial and environmentally, is very much appreciated and needed. Optimists like Mr.Tony Seba should be making headlines in the media to restore hope that humanity is not all destructive to the environment.
I wish he made headlines too. This kind of content makes me cry because I feel optimism so rarely these days.
You give me hope for a future on this planet
Haa Tesla is a weapons system.
I’m in Tesla options and stock 100% . I’m selling my house and buying more. Tony’s analysis is so compelling and Tesla is the clear leader in this tech convergence tsunami.
It has been a while since Tony presented. It is always a pleasure to watch him present and validate his past and future predictions.
I found that boring, actually. I was expecting new items.
Oh! It's been son long! Glad to hear from you again.
This man completely reconceptualized my vision of the future. It's not gonna be bleak like everyone says. It's gonna be awesome.
Nice to see you back Tony. You should title your talks, or a new book"I told you so" as it is great to see your past "crazy" predictions comming true.
Yes! Just as Ricky always said on TPB: "I didn't want to say I toldu so but I f@acken toldu so!!!"
This will age very well.
I’ve been driving a 100% Electric Vehicle for the past 7 years. All I own is one car. I can’t wait for the disruption.
I can’t wait for the disruption too. 2 EVs in my household. ~100K total km of EV driving in last 3 years.
Bravo. and the above arguments don't refer to the lack of buses on the street, whereby mostly empty buses, much of the time are NOT economical in fuel per rider-mile. Owners can also 'carpool' their autonomous CARS, allowing them to join the fleets out there, servincing the sole-rider or shared rinder plans, AND as riders get more and more familiar with the process, indidual enterpreneurship in transport may grow, not shrink, also. to share... ALL while being way, greener. I'd say mobile surveillance in EACH vehicle will be a growth industry too. Who wants to share with a psychopath?
Will not happen.. read the comments again .. MIT says fleet costs are higher than personal costs and they’re right for now
I love this video every time I watch it. Every bit of this presentation is true. Everyone should inform as many people as possible to invest as he directs.
Awesome as usual 👍 I remember your conference 5 years ago
great presentation!!! pure informational gold right there!!! thank you very much 👍🏽👍🏽👍🏽
All new vehicles to be electric by 2025. What an amazing outcome for the environment that will be. Loving this talk on disruptive technologies.
Tony Seba should go on Autoline. The latest show had 3 guests that were convinced about the fact that EVs will not be mainstream for another... 30 years!
So a Mastodon, Sabre tooth Tiger and Woolly Mammoth went down a grassy valley 13 000 years ago...
The great weakness of car people is they assume everyone loves cars as much as they do.
18:45 The combination is double exponentional - What does this mean, despite sounding really fast? Factor a (e.g. hardware) f_a(t) = e^(a*t), factor b (e.g. software) f_b(t) = e^(b*t). Together with both factors a and b: f_a(t) * f_b(t) = e^(a*t) * e^(b*t) = e^(a*t + b*t) = e^((a+b)*t) - It follows that the multiplication of two exponential functions still yields an exponential function.
Been watching him make the same presentation for about 5 years. He's barely had to change a thing because he's either been bang on with his predictions or a tad cautious, if anything. I think he likes to freshen it up a little now and then. The big take-away is that technology disruption occurs in an S-Curve [or even a J-Curve these days], not in a slow linear adoption rate that TV analysts like to tell us. They are completely wrong and TS is 👍.
It is always a S-curve, even if the first part looks like a J-curve (exponential). There is no exponential growth in a finite world - at least not for unlimited time. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function and in ressource economics, the first derivative is en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_curve
@@gunnarkaestle Indeed. Always an S-curve. However, some people refer to an extremely steep S-curve as a J-curve or "hockey stick". I try not to. 😋
@@ramblerandy2397 If you have a J and add another (180° rotated) J to the top: voila, that is the S-curve.
And exactly this the logistic cuve: df/dt ~ f(t)*(1-f(t)). In the beginning the exponential growth is dominating df/dt ~ f(t)*(~1), in the middle there is a transition from the high growth to a decline phase with an inflexion point, and after that the growth boundary (here at 1) is taking over and the dominating feature is the exponentially slowing down like in radioactive decay: df/dt ~ (~1)*(1-f(t))
In consumer markets, then there is no "stealing" of consumers from competitors with a better product, it is just the replacement which is bought. Then the cutthroat competition between different market players offering similar products takes over.
That was a really well thought out and delivered presentation
Another thing to consider: One Tesla EV robotaxi can do the work, over its life, of sixteen individually-owned ICE cars. You'll have the car travel four times the mileage per year versus today's typical car, and the car lasts four times as long (we're assuming a bunch of Hondas and Toyotas that last 250,000 miles, and that's very optimistic; we're probably really talking 175,000 miles per car, corresponding to about 23 ICE cars). Do you know how much steel that would save? Steel's very energy-intensive to make and mold. Big GHG savings right there.
I get your point now... as a guy from Saudi Arabia this is eye opening and in my case very very depressing to be honest... thanks for sharing
Not to mention too that most of a Tesla's body is made of aluminium, not steel. The exception would be the Cybertruck haha, that thing is made of rocket-grade steel.
Michael Ball: But Tesla fanbois can't have it both ways. If the car market shrinks by a factor of 64 (4x for lasting as long, and 16x for the private vehicle market converting to robo-taxis), then there go about 98% of potential Tesla sales.
Oops. Making assumptions re tech. and math have more than one sort of consequence.
I love how you craft a compelling narrative Tony!
this is so relevant and poignant to what's happening in our world today and tomorrow - tony is so on point!
"EVOLET" The Future Is Electric.!!!
"Nothing can stop an idea whose time has come".
Responsibility is huge on OEMs. The way fwd for OEMs is multiple partnerships to localise, seeking to ensure that EVs become mainstream & affordable.
Rissala welcomes the idea of working with partners on electric vehicle technology. Rissala strongly believes that OEMs need to come together to pool recourses & create a much better eco system for EVs in India. Its sensible to collaborate & co-create solutions to realise the eco dream. We need to be the game changers now that we are leading this fantastic change. Its effects are going to be un-imanagable for the country, its people & the world with every seventh human being on this planet being an Indian.
Advantages to the country from the perspective of energy security & competitive advantage too, electric mobility will reduce oil import costs, lower trade deficits, & limit vulnerability to oil supply disruptions & process shocks, finally electric mobility will deliver a host of environment benefits , including cleaner air & savings of over 87 billion Usd/Yr. or 30,000 Crore per day from imports.
OEMs have to work closely with specialised technology companies & power train technologies need to come from tech providers. Its a win - win for all.
From ten Lacs (one million) barrels of oil use daily presently, your decision to shift to Electric mobility, its guaranteed to reduce to one Lac (100,000) barrels daily by 2025 & further to 10,000 barrels by 2030.
Earth's healing has started.
Mother Earth is Smiling!!!
Thanks to the human spirit!!!
Thanks to Indians shifting to Electric mobility. Three Cheers!!!!
"It is not the strongest that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change."
We have to be thankful to gods for being in these times & situation where such huge changes are warranted & in our hands as OEMs & with the government's extraordinary positive push in terms of policies, subsidies & support in all ways possible.
Rissala Electric Motors - Warriors Belief & Mission.
Healing Mother Earth!!!
Sharing & Caring!!!
Premium Quality - Affordable Prices & Best After Sales Service!!!
Creating Jobs - Proudly Made in India!!!
"Evolet" = Happy, Sustainable, Affordable, Green mobility for each & everyone. Just like our ageless companion - The Horse.
Mr. Seba is a modest man.
He shows about Moore's Law, Kryder's Law, Hendy's Law, Butter's Law but he doesn't use Seba's Law for his prediction of Li-Ion battery price forecast.
I would imagine that real estate prices in the city will plummet when TaaS frees up parking lots for residential/office space
Not just that. With transportation cheaper (Taas) and faster (less traffic) travelling from Suburbs or far from Suburbs would be easier. That could make people saying no to costly cities.
Most places currently have commercial oversupply. Residential is the bottleneck that needs to be cleared.
I think the idea would be more green pedestrian/ last mile transport areas? (scooters, etc)
I think it might a bit, but I think there will be a massive investment in residential space. With no more parking requirements, mega towers can be constructed allowing an inflow of people who want to live the city life. Remove cars from the equation and the idea of living in a city becomes much more desirable.
@D B
Your point?
the biggest mistake people can do is to assume that they are smart - Elon Musk
Pretty sure it was Elon Tusk that Said but who am I right?
If you ever needed something to look forward to and feel disheartened about what is happening today... this video will make you want to keep moving forward to see these things happen. It's not as far away as it feels.
I have literally just now discovered Tony Seba.
It has been very interesting to watch Tony Seba's talk from 2017 immediately followed by this one in 2019 and see how the predictions have either come to pass or that the green shoots of them are showing. In the UK GridServe is one to take a look at - huge investment from financiers who probably would not have touched them a few years ago, making possible their particular dream contribution.
I do not particularly look forward to TAAS having spent the past 46 years addicted to personal transportation. But I do recognise that it has to come. Plus that the young [today's] generations, particularly in the metropolis areas, feel little need to own a personal transportation vehicle and would take up TAAS in a heartbeat. But I also recognise the distinct Mobility revolution that TAAS would represent to many - if the prices are commoditised and affordable (no, we don't all want to be ferried around in Teslas at premium prices!).
It is now just over halfway through 2021 and I'd love to see one of his talks from this year.
I took delivery of my 2021 Tesla Y Sept 30, 2021. My delivery price tax tag and title was $69,000 with the FSD. Same configuration with FSD is now $80,000. I could sell my Y and make money. I am on pace for 40,000 miles annually. My fuel and maintenance savings make my car payment. I fully expect to get 400,000 miles. And when the Cyber Truck is available I will purchase that and reduce the use of the Y, so that both will probably last me and my wife the rest of our lives. The Y along with the Cyber truck will be my last vehicle purchases. I am 61. Battery replacement will be an interesting option in the future when I can replace my current battery with a 325 range with a 600 mile range battery. Even if it cost $15,000 to replace it would be worth once the vehicle is paid for in 6 1/2 years. In Tennessee where I live you can transfer a vehicle to a family member sales tax free so that if I want to continue to buy the latest and greatest and can give my kids or grandkids my old Tesla. I truly expect these will be lifetime vehicles similar to airplanes in that that the fuselage of many airplanes is over 25 years old with the components upgraded overtime.
Excellent Talk, Building infrastructure for generating electricity and service of charging still a big challenge, specially in developing countries
18:40 Double exponential is the same thing as exponential
Good to hear a little update, I still wonder about your cow story I saw on twitter.
Here's the portal for download of the new report; bit.ly/2Np34Hk
"Dad! I can't believe you drove the car yourself at highway speed. That's so dangerous!" Children of the future
Wow, "disruptions happens on convergence and from outside", dang, you nailed it sir
The best presentation!!!
Financial institutions and insurance companies need to factor in Climate risks and start to divest from fossil fuels.
Companies need to factor in Climate risks into their business projections.
Agree, but what Tony is talking about happens even without any reference to climate change. Falling costs of clean energy and clean transportation causes the disruption. A side effect will be much lower Carbon emissions, which will improve and hopefully reverse climate change long term.
The term "double exponential" is used wrongly in this talk (18:33). If you multiply together two exponential functions the result is still only exponential, though with a shorter doubling time. But these asymptotic descriptions are not very suited to describing short-term growth anyway.
And Tesla will be the number one driver that drives people around not Uber or Lyft
@Damnit Bobby short as much tesla stock as you can please go ahead
Google/Waymo is probably going to be bigger, but Tesla has a chance to have its place. It's the only new car brand I'd consider, today; FSD is the key.
@Damnit Bobby Tesla will take back and reuse lease return cars to save money on developing its own fleet service. If they can get AV driving software going faster than you think, or their battery business (Maxwell acquisition) is better than we expect, then if you keep shorting them, you won't get to keep that free Tesla. Heck, if that's all it costs you, you'll be lucky.
On the "disposable car" part: Tesla's future million mile battery (Maxwell tech) on top of the million mile motor they already have, divided by 90k miles/year = eleven year service life. Even if that brought $15k/year in revenue (half of Tesla's estimates), no sane fleet owner would have a $15k/car purchase limit for that much life.
He's forgetting people all go to school and work at the same time. And so cars will park as usual. Unless people work a greater variety of hours in city centre. But for big cities, especially care givers, home workers and mum's or dads at homes, Why own a car? Agree.
Theres a reason google and apple are absent in the VR space, they became too slow and lack the early vision. Sony samsung and facebook are there already. RUclips is also destroying itself with banning and censoring channels and scam ads are still ongoing.
Q: Who can stop Nokia?
A: Nokia.
Nokila
Amazing! Holding my TSLA shares till 2030.
With TaaS, we still have lots of people wanting to go places at the same time. We call that Rush Hour. Unless that goes away we need a huge number of TaaS vehicles.
TaaS pool could be one solution
Taas will be more flexible in pricing though. My train only gets cheaper at rediculous offpeak hours making it nonsense. Taas will be able to price much more flexible (different per minute) and flatten the curve.
There is almost no change between the two pictures at the beginning. The first one showed mobile personal space and effortless travel, the second one also did. if in a third picture there were flying cars, the change would have been minimal, because it would also show mobile personal space and effortless travel. The only thing that changed between the first and second pictures was the technology used, but it ended up applied to the same concept. The true disruption occurred only to the horse industry, which ended up adapting in the end and changed it's niche.
However, the horse industry was disrupted only because motor/engine technology was more practical than horses, and because those involved had the intention to make the technology affordable to everyone; making it cheaper in little time. The monolithic smartphone was more practical than the feature phones of the time, and those involved were also willing to make it affordable to all.
Electric cars are a different matter, because the ones involved have no interest in making it affordable to everyone, and are starting to hold it as a luxury product. The 35k tesla was just a marketing stunt, and is now gone; and now we have a bunch of new manufacturers with EV's above 100k. The "affordable" EV's in china are not true cars, as they can't maintain highway speeds, have no safety at all, and have overall appalling quality.
Self driving technology is going very fast and will reach and surpass all expectations, but it's adoption will still be slow regardless. Whenever you narrow down the envelope of survival of a system, the regulation around said system becomes more strict, and aviation is an example. As manufacturers of self driving systems are aware of this, they will remain unwilling to assume the responsibility for accidents, instead keeping the responsibility at the drivers' hands; never removing the steering wheels from their cars, and disclaiming that drivers must pay attention at all times, in case they need to take control (which makes self driving technologies practically useless). People will of course ignore the disclaimers and fatal accidents will occur. This will reach a point where the authorities will intervene, and if manufacturers remain unwilling to take responsibility, the adoption of self driving technologies may become even slower.
Transportation as a service is only cheaper if you consider ownership of cars costing upwards of 50k, very high fees for parking in large cities, and very cheap rates for ride hailing apps. There is also the fact that cars are extensions of one's personal space, as said above, and in TAAS, you have no personal space, like in a cab. Car sharing and subscription models are always more expensive than owning a car, and the mileage limits mean it's only adequate for short commutes in large cities. To make matters worse, all parking potentially freed will be taken up by TAAS vehicles waiting for passengers.
Oil prices will *never* go down for more than 3 months. The prices may crash at first, but the producers and distributors will hold the supplies and create artificial scarcity to increase the prices again.
In Walmart last night - floor cleaning done by autonomous floor cleaning machine. It’s here.
And all this without even having to mention all the other benefits of smart fleet vehicles... no more stop signs or stop lights, cars drafting inches behind one another because they know where one another are going. The cars are allowed to go faster more safely than ever with no traffic jams, suddenly making our crowded road system more than adequate. I wish cities would STOP putting billions into 100 year old technology of light rail. Why bother walking a mile to a train station and having it stop at 10 stops before your destination, then drop you off a mile from where you need to go? You can just use your phone to order a self driven car to whiz to to where you need to go for next to nothing.
Excellent insight of the future
It's late 2021. We're NOWHERE CLOSE to practical and approved real world L4 fleet deployable city by city robo-taxis.
2022 looks impossible already. Leaders like Mobileye will be doing some testing of this om a small scale in 2022. Tesla will continue making incremental improvements to FSD Beta, and it will likely still be L2 in 2022.
So 2 years out, and his prediction is already WAY OFF re approved robo-taxi fleet claim for 2021. Predicting the future is HARD, especially re accuracy in timing.
And I DO think the leaders like Mobileye will likely have practical L4 city by city robo-taxi fleets in various big cities in 2025 or so -- assuming the regulators, lawyers, insurance folks, etc. will allow it to happen within a year of when the tech. is ready.
Baidu, Pony, Hyundai Motional, gm-honda origin.. and many more.
Believe me. Nothing is gonna be cheaper! The capitalistic world wil never alow that to happen. When we converted from old glow light bulbs into powersawing bulbs I thought yes now I will half my electricity bill but the only thing that has happened is that it has doubled.
we need clean disruption now!
open your eyes lol
This actually gets me excited about the future
Utterly brilliant...
Shoutout to Exxon for sending 62 people over to dislike this video. AWESOME job, Tony. #FACTS
This is called Subject Matter Expertise 🤟
Simply enchanting minds
Terrific study and presentation!
you can't replace someone that does unique things everyday,
>>> ARAMCO for sale anyone??
It is probably going to be a future schoolbook example of what Tony Seba so descriptively calls market-trauma
Not for everybody. If you are a saudi arabian woman, you are not allowed to buy. It is specified in their offer.
Their just getting more money out of the market
la fan de nuel That’s not correct. Anyone can buy. Why are you making things up?!?
What he told is coming true, ev is disruption we don't see it coming until it happens.
27:10 the unused carparks will be used for EVTOL landing pads. EVTOLs will extend the one hour commute range 300km or more making cheap rural land available for housing. Afortable housing could create a baby boom like the car suburbs of the 50's did. Passenger rail will become obsolete.
Great insight and I'll bet very few urban planners are even aware of Tony. Maybe the Circular Economy folks in EU, but given his track record already, this projection should be mandatory prep everywhere.
Rural Land: His new project "rethink AG" says Ag land use will be severely reduced-soon, so there's another challenge or opportunity for planners.
I was going to discuss that. But i thought again. Those, with AI flying assistance, wouldn't kill as much people as cars did all over last decades. They're going to be expensive, though.
@@lafandenuel5605 Agreed. Disturbing to hear the mfr.'s estimate of costs "same as taxis". Yikes! Who wants to take a taxi 50 miles? So something's gotta give or UAVs will be for corps only and not so useful.
Awesome presentation
Thanks, well on point. Regarding the autonomous driving + EV disruption, the question is, can we make as many autonomous EV´s as we need in such a short time. Evidently Tesla is very close to full autonomy and ramping its production numbers very fast, but still have a very small overall passenger car market share. Maybe they could license the Autopilot technology to others, and maybe others will be able to replicate in a few years what Tesla is doing. Waymo is already level 4 -5 autonomous but their sensor suite is relatively expensive and might not work under bad wheather conditions.
Excellent presentation ty
Taxpayers did not have to subsidize the transition from horses to cars. There's no need for taxpayers to subsidize these transitions, either.
Read his book. Recommend highly. The future is now and no politician is going to bring back (fill in the blank__________). Too much is happening too quickly to fight a rear guard action.
Aguz Rodri
Hi Tony. Great presentation.
Question-
For planners, engineers and policy makers, what advice on preparing for the year 2030 you have (transportation sector)?
From roads to mass transit to funding.
As you know the main source of funding for transportation is the gas tax, and this future will not have any gas tax.
Thank you
We are living in a pivotal movement in India's history, it is a time of opportunity, inclusive growth & transformation. Our dynamic government wants to bring in Electric Vehicles swiftly to tackle pollution & save 87 Billions Usd wasted in import of oil. We cannot continue to import all that oil. We have to address this problem of air & noise pollution which we feel so deeply about & are in anguish. Let's awaken the child in ourselves. Its OK to feel the pain & anxiety but it is not OK to do nothing about it. "Let's be the change" in helping in healing our planet.
Mother Earth belongs to all living creatures & we have no right to destroy it for our greed. Its about sharing & caring. The shift to EVs is not just a choice but a NECESSITY for us Indians.
Advantages to our country from the perspective of energy security & competitive advantage too are huge, electric mobility will reduce oil import costs, lower trade deficits, and limit vulnerability to oil supply disruptions and process shocks, finally electric mobility will deliver a host of environment benefits , including cleaner air & savings of over 87 billion Usd/Yr or 30,000 Crore per day.
To move towards a stellar growth, adverse efforts of current mode of transport needs to be countered. Government will stand to save 30,000 Crore per day in revenue from fuel imports, as we import most of it, so net gain is environment, consumer gain and our social responsibility to mother Earth".
This is eventually leading to a paradigm shift, making electric vehicles the future of global transport.”.The outcome is going to be unimaginable!! Unfathomable!!
Rissala production capacity for the WHOLE year is 6 lac vehicles, & ours is the largest Electric Vehicles manufracturing Plants in the country. Sustainability, Affordability and Excellence are just some of the factors that we rely on to deliver world class electric vehicles. So 100 more plants of our size & production capability also cannot fulfill the demand for next 5 yrs.
Though it's great for any startup company & we can't be complaining, but expectations of people, Distributor s/Dealers, Government, Corporate houses, Companies, Industry have been tooo high for a startup company which is just about 18 month old.
Being a completely debt free company with no banking lines, loans etc we have pumped in & need to pump in all the funds & more. REM has to just keep the basic expectations & demands fulfilled to best of our ability.
Frankly it's always about pursuit for money in business, Rissala has had prime motive of doing all we can to help heal mother earth & reduce this deadly pollution. Money always follows when your aim & focus is clear. With India having 22 of the world's most polluted cities. Pollution is the most prime concern for each youth today & luckily we are the youngest nation in the world with 75% of our population below 35yrs of age.
The sudden demand boost specially after many States Govts, having passed very strong, positive, EVs policies, It has taken all manufactures by surprise.
Thus the young Rissala team has had to work 24x7 & need to do so for till this Yr end to stabilize & get things on track to get maximum milage out of this god sent oppurtunity.
This sudden demand spurt has kept us on our toes as each penny counts & raising funds to fulfill confirmed orders is a situation we r in & needs to be responded well. God's been very kind. Looks like too many blessings recieved from millions of God's together.
A fantastic situation but extremely overpowering. . I request all my friends to anyhow-somehow surely indulge into EVs business, where ever they are. It's the Future.
Wishing you Health, Josh & Happiness!!! Ally.
Rissala Electric Motors - Warriors Belief & Mission.
Healing Mother Earth!!!
Sharing & Caring!!!
Premium Quality - Affordable Prices & Best After Sales Service!!!
Creating Jobs - Proudly Made in India!!!
"Evolet" = Happy, Sustainable, Affordable, Green mobility for each & everyone. Just like our ageless companion - The Horse.
Surprised there's no Wikipedia page for Tony
Did you work on it?
Excellent presentation, really eye-opening and interesting, the only thing I did not agree with Tony, was when he mentioned the operating systems, Apple IOS, Microsoft Windows, then he did not research well enough to verify that actually the #1 OS most used today is Linux, all cloud infrastructures use Linux, and regarding Android, it is also Linux, even Microsoft uses now Linux for their Cloud offering Azure ^^, other than that Tony, great presentation.
He made a few mistakes, but I think he has the overall trend pretty well nailed down.
No Dyson anymore 😁
@@dluchin1998yeah, he probably thought cars suck, too...
I think the reality is they were to late.
@@dluchin1998 Not with the AV/AI driving part. He probably knew he'd have to partner with Google GM, or the like, and didn't want to commoditize his cars.
Hopefully they sell parts. Like improved fans or inbuilt vacuums for cars. Dyson electric motors are amazing.
D Luchin Maybe Dyson should of focused on autonomous electric vacuum cleaners to clean the streets.
This guy is goooood!!!
I would LOVE, to give 1000 Thumps up! If i only had seen this Video earlier!!!
Tick tock, Mr. Serba.
Good presentation.. Specially for people who think money 24x7..:)... No talk on jobs lost post market trauma... Even if additional jobs might be created what about upskill curve of general population and its impact to society, crime rate, unemployment, etc... To cherry top automation is already ensuring humans become irrelevant in next decade..
Tony, in energy disruption, have you considered heating/cooling and DHW??
Hey Tony, any idea when the Smart Phone will go the way of the original telephone? Hint, Neuralink and Nanobot Technology Convergence.
Good show!
Very insightful
I am from India. JIO mobile phone provider disrupted ALL the other players by giving free, fast, unlimited internet for a year in 2016...and now has the largest paid subscriber base. Most other major players are going into losses while JIO is making profits and branching out into aerospace, mobile devices, TV, mobile payments, devices, 5G...and much more. DISRUPTIONS are ALWAYS by a new guy...old bosses just can't think of it.
Eye opening! I gotta by FSD for my Tesla now....
mikeberg just did👍🏽
Damnit Bobby I think We Will see who is right in less than 5 years...
@Damnit Bobby The convenience factor alone, will be worth it. If you have a wife, she'll be screaming in your ear for it -- and at that point, you'll wish you paid just $7k for it.
Is Kathy Wood of ARKK a disciple of Seba, applying the theories to the world of investments? anybody know?
Autonomous suitcases already exist, not sure how reliable is the tracking.
And notice the impact on climate: "90% decrease in transport GHG emissions" That's a gigantic relief in the transition challenge
To say nothing of the 45% GHG decrease in the agricultural sector, also by 2030 (Rethink Food and Agriculture). It's time Tony took a seat at the highest levels of climate strategy.
With robotaxis, boring company and potentially, hyperloop or vertical take off electric aircraft would anyone want to live in city centres any more?
AI creates double exponential rate, mind blown!🤯
And I hold a disruptive understanding of word energy that could transform the consciousness of the entire planet - from power over or power against to power with; from a money (what can I take from you) economy to a giving, receiving, sharing, caring, mutually respective and mutually supportive humanity.
@tonyseba - please allow for user generated translations.
The only thing I disagree with is the thinking around fleets. Look at peak our traffic. You’ll need a fleet that size to cope/fulfil the demand under this model. I don’t see that happening. Generally, we all need to be at a place at a certain time, and they all tend to be at the same time. So 96% of a car’s time may be unused, but 96% or all cars are probably in use at the same time.
Loved your work in the film 2040....would like to see it more publicised as a totals solution for economics vs commonsense, and add your thoughts on that...
how would you book an uber when you want to go with your family in the middle of nowhere for holidays 1000km for home ?
@14:50 Correct. Not 2040. Not 2030. And certainly not 2050!
2025!!! 5 short, sexy years!
@30:34 Check Mate ICE!
I don't think small parking lots will go away because autonomous cars and their passengers still need safe space to disembark. So there needs to be runway shaped strips with multiple dropoff and pickup locations, very different shape from the parking lot square but same size. However for huge parking lots like Walmart etc, it's up to these private companies what they will replace the lots with. Probably more building lol. It's weird because it's front end space not back end, so they can't build AI machine operate storage structures..maybe they will sell the lots for little recreational plazas or other businesses that compliment their business
Invest in nickel, cobalt and aluminum. Minning operations will be the new bog oil and how destructive will they be?
A good question for Mr. Seba to address. Human success seems to be predicated on exploitation of Nature.