466 | Tim Carney: Is Culture Driving America's Collapsing Birth Rate? - The Realignment Podcast
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- Опубликовано: 28 июн 2024
- Tim Carney, AEI Senior Fellow, Washington Examiner columnist, and author of Family Unfriendly: Family Unfriendly: How Our Culture Made Raising Kids Much Harder Than It Needs to Be, joins The Realignment. Tim and Marshall discuss the cultural, economic, political, and technological roots of America's falling birth rate, the gap between the number of children that families wish to have and the actual number they have, government's role in family formation and social policy, the role of class and region in parenting struggles, and the ways that individual parents can make navigate an increasingly difficult social environment.
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0:00 - Introduction
1:21 - Why culture?
7:23 - Peak of the american family
11:34 - Work & family
16:59 - Birth rate narrative
22:04 - Historical decline of birth rates
27:50 - How universal is this culture?
32:38 - Sports & parenting
41:54 - What can the government do?
48:43 - Frameworks
52:08 - Technology
I am working from home with my 3 month old by my side. I work for a small business so I didn't have maternity leave but they have been super lenient with me working at a slower pace. I am eternally grateful 🙏
Yes and you don’t have a husband. You have resources. But not a husband. And life WORKS. So you don’t need a husband to make life work.
Now imagine you have a roommate who’s a woman who also has kids and you help each other. Do you think life will be BETTER than now?
I do have a husband. Men are very important in the life of a baby for discipline and play.
@@kelseyreynolds7463 thej are NOT
@@nothereyetlosthow many cats?
@@kelseyreynolds7463 really that’s interesting bc I read an essay that included no man which tells me he contributes nothing to your life.
And I promise you lady, you can get from nothing you need and can’t get from yourself or another woman. I promise you that. Men are NOT important. But I understand why you think that. Men have made themselves SEEM important and NEVCESSARY. nd there are plenty and some women simply are too unintelligent to see past the lies. Seems you’re one of them.
I promise you, they are not, and the evidence is abundant, from genetics, to embryology, to nature to social behavior, the evidence is ABUNDANT and UNDENIABLE.
Legacy of divorce and half of children being raises in single parent families have dramatically shaped attitudes towards marriage and children.
Im always surprised so few people bring this up or investigate this angle. Maybe bc so few in this "space" come from single parent homes.
No, it’s legacy of males abusing their spouses that led to women escaping their marriages so that males are no longer needed. Accountability.
@@nothereyetlostas if women are not perfectly capable of destroying relationships or abusing their spouses. Many modern women have insane standards and is why many more will end up alone like you.
People can not afford a home, much less children.
This is very much a reason why, and a common thing I hear from younger people. There was a news article in Utah last year that showed 2/3 of Utahns are priced out of the housing market. How can someone raise a family when so much money is needed to go towards housing, and other things that have dramatically increased over the past few years?
Yet these experts don’t know why people can’t/don’t want kids?😂
All planned. They don't care if you breed. @@razorswc
The middle class was created by the New Deal. It's being exterminated by design. Go back to the early 1970s when male wages stopped rising for inflation. That's when mothers entered the work force to make ends meet, outsourcing education, child care, homemaking, to the nanny state and to for-profit business.
@@MrBearcatjew They don't know what it's like to live alone in a 250 SF unheated "apartment" with a 4.0 GPA an a job and still not make rent.
The Korean example might be a good case study. Urbanzation and crowding are surely a factor. Calhoun's tets on rats in the 60's are pretty dire
It’s not urbanization.
Men won’t figure it out though bc you cannot admit the problem
@@nothereyetlost Of course there are social issues, I'm completely aware of Megalia.
@@JWPanimation no this’d ate peripheral
In Uganda the grandmothers love nearby and help care for the kids.
Stop pandering to these people
I totally support changing zoning, more walkability etc. That said, the US has had suburbs and sprawl for a long time. We had better sense of community and more kids with a car centric culture before.
Couldn't possibly be due to the 50 yr neoliberalism economic policy of privatization, speculation/financialization taking the place of industrialization, stagnant wages, bank credit replacing government funding of the exploited and diminishing public sector, skyrocketing housing, cars, college tuition, utility bills, capital flight, etc.
Privatization is NOT liberalism. It’s capitalism. You described conservatives policies and seek to blame liberals.
@@GrayBlanket wrong. Neo liberalism is new age liberalism. Stop. It literally just means liberalism. But that is also highly insignificant for those things are all capitalism not anything else.
Conservative populations like the Amish have strong birthrates. Amish and Islam are doing well.
Good point! Premodern cultures whose base unit is the family not the individual, and whose basic virtue is duty not personal choice.
@@GrayBlanketno they are falling too. But they also are NOT natural so they too will eventually FALL
@@nothereyetlost I ain't mad at it 💁
@@GrayBlanket of course you’re not. It benefits men. The only thing you don’t like is anything that doesn’t benefit men.
We don't want to live like them
But birth rate declined cross culturally. [Edit: across the 1st world developed industrialized economies].
No, it didn't. Africa has HUGE birthrates still
@@suzygirl1843 The trend is within 1st world industrialized developed economies. I'll edit my comment to state that explictly. Thank you!
@@suzygirl1843 Is it the entire continent of Africa, or certain populations, some nations more than others? I'd love to learn more!
I've just never been able to afford kids because I can't even afford my own apartment, let alone food, clothes, daycare, babysitters, tutors, school! Just not possible these days with how expensive all the necessities are, and I don't see a life where I have a child and will be spending so much time away from them to work and provide
My parents divorce drama scarred me mentally. I have more peace as a single woman with no kids.
Damn what if you get to 60 and you don’t have kids. It could get lonely
@@c.f.okonta8815 Fortunately I have my own nuclear family that I was born into, as well as friends.
@@lilyann168 it still can’t replace the emptyness of not having kids
@@c.f.okonta8815 it's not news though if I planned for it 🤔
@@lilyann168 I meant the emptiness of not having kids not empty news it was a typo
You should have Malcolm Collins on to discuss this.
House to expensive for new family . Old rich people have 4 home As an investment. Increase house prices
The West will fall
You should check your local school bus policy. I know the school I taught at would not provide a bus for anyone who lived less than 2 miles away from the school and so we had a lot of parents drop off their kids from the car because there wasn't a school bus option.
Good. 4B Movement USA is a force for good. Feminists finally being useful
A real good "Rubber Hits the Road Talk"! There does need to be a common sense/good faith discussion on how to get America reproducing again! Work/Life Balance is the obvious elephant in the room that nobody is elevating to a national level of discussion. Too many boys have Dads that are too busy to raise them properly. "Dadhood" is a long-forgotten core element of society that must be re-integrated. Thanks guys!
This is spot on!
I work 60 hrs week I'm tired on my free time
@@JR-gy1lh Google "wtf happened in 1971" and examine the charts of male real wages, female entry into the labor force, divorce rates, public school ratings, crime, etc. It's truly eye opening what happened in this country when men stopped getting paid a little "extra" to compensate for their wives raising the kids and making the home.
We gotta ask why this happened and what can be done to encourage family formation and togetherness.
@jaumartinez9006Real wages declined after the 1960s. Class warfare. Labor/middle class lost. Owners/elites won. Sad.
You start out talking about dropping birth rates, you end up spending more time talking about elite sports, and father son interactions. Hello?
They are out of touch elites
You do not need a scoreboard and a ball to play sports.
It's always gonna be the mother who will have to sacrifice her income to raise kids. Which is why childfree women's movement will only grow and birth rates will continue on shrinking.
Unless more women start valuing kids/family over income/career.
@@GrayBlanket Depending on men's mood swings for survival is something only dumb person would do.
WRONG. Women sacrificing for children is only an emergency feature but men have have it a permanent feature. Women were never supposed to be sacrificing for the children as the norm. Precisely bc they won’t do it and is therefore a self-extinction mechanism.
It is still women who give up a lot in order to have a baby. Men are stepping up more than they used to, but the burden is still mostly carried by women. That has to change if society wants more babies to be born. Men have to step up, employers have to be more flexible, and society has to support childcare options.
It's the opposite. Women gain a lot by having babies and escaping the labor market to raise families. Women who work lose a lot by not forming a family, or if they do have a family, they're pulled in opposite directions by their career vs. their domestic duties. Totally agree men have to step up and demand higher wages and other benefits for families.
This farce is repeated over and over, yet the most egalitarian and generous welfare states in the world have birth rates well below replacement level and even lower than the United States. Take a look at Denmark or Norway and tell me what they're doing wrong according to your logic.
Thus will NEVER change bc you’re missing two key ingredients:men hate women, and therefore hate children
Yeah women never need to change anything right? They just need more freedom and choices
Women actually gain a lot by having a baby.
Let the dude talk. Lots of interruption in the beginning.
Until I worked a government union job I got 2 weeks off a year for sick and vacation leave. 3 days for a dead family member. Never would have thought to take FMLA.
Luckily cancer came during my government career.
Otherwise American culture would have killed me. Laws reinforce culture or undermine it.
Opportunity cost.
Deferred gratification.
@@GrayBlanketNot sure I'm following this.
@@alshermond Oops, sorry! Opportunity cost being the next best thing that you could be doing, or wish you were doing, and delayed gratification being denying pleasure today to get more pleasure tomorrow, then if deferred gratification > opportunity cost, have kids. Otherwise, don't.
@@alshermond The real twister is that almost 100% of parents never regret having kids no matter what, while most childless persons do regret never having kids, and the few that don't regret not having kids can never know if they'd have been better off having kids, since they never had kids. Ha!
Always another decade away. Another generation. You're severely out of touch and time is up.
Europe has fallen
No it hasn’t. It’s literally still has 900million people. Stop the lies.
@nothereyetlost importing over half a million each year for the last 10+ years of illegals isn't a lie. It's content that is being conquered.
@@nothereyetlostit's about more than just raw numbers it's about age demographics. Outside of France and I think a few others many parts of especially Western Europe are quite old. You need new workers to fund all the pensions, health care, etc. that their large, older populations need.
@@chickenfishhybrid44 yes I know what it ALL about, far more than you. Actually . It’s still gaslighting. And total bs. I know the causes and the data and their effects. I know why South Korea is worst of all and why China and Japan are right behind it. I know why the US is in the same boat but not as dire. I know all the data and far more than that including the hidden things no one would ever guess. And I KNOW the solution. And I also know the true cause. I also KNOW not one man will think of the true cause and therefore cannot think of a solution, and that’s why all the solutions are failing and will continue to do so. I also know that males, billions of you, have no problem forcing women, and I know YOU are one if those who will be all too ready and agreeable to forcing women. Do not presume to lecture me or assume there’s anything I can learn from you. You couldn’t possibly understand how far advanced my knowledge is.
I'd rather live in a culture that doesn't shame people for not having kids. Thank you. His argument is flawed. There are more pressing issues than culture that we need to address.
But shame IS culture. For politics is downstream of culture, and culture is downstream of religion.
There is no culture without children.
@@GrayBlanketWRONG. Culture is NOT downstream of religion. Religion is FAKE 100%. Otherwise you are saying if mo religion exists there will be no human culture??? That’s categorically untrue
@@fitzgeraldfilmsMN what wrong!!! Men are the ones who make children. That’s what men said and have said for thousands of years. Y’all have said women do NOTHING.
Please leave women out of this convo. You’re right we do nothing..”leave us alone
I'd rather live in a culture where stay at home moms are at the least not mocked or looked down upon for a start.
Maybe altruism has increased. Along with other reasons, maybe people are not having children so that those who do have children have more resources, better environment, etc.
WROMG. As long as you live on a planet full of delish males thus will never be true
This guy is not a good guest. Birth rates are shrinking all over regardless of culture. China, Germany, South Korea, India, Russia, Italy, Canada, Brazil, etc. The main underlying theme is industrialization. Birth rates in poor areas in Africa, Middle East that didn’t industrialize well and are not in a total war zone are still very high.
Sound like a Peter Zeihan fan. I agree 100% with this statement
With respect, I think you missed the point. He acknowledges birthrates declining everywhere, but he argues that structural and policy factors, and culture, lower the birthrate more than the standard decline due to the shift from agriculture to industrialism.
@@DaggothJr What is the standard decline?
@@GrayBlanketI was writing colloquially not technically
@@DaggothJr Oh ok. I don't think there is a standard decline. It varies a lot across countries, and within countries across generations.🤷♀
Culture? Remember that women risk their lives to carry and deliver children and health insurance for family coverage is outrageously expensive. That is not culture but the social and economic system. It is not selfishness to feel responsible for the baby’s care and needs, which the parents cannot afford because their jobs are increasingly without benefits from their work place.
So true! And yet, humans procreated for thousands of years without employer insurance.
People like to claim it's financial, but reality doesn't support that. The poorer you are, the more likely you are to have kids. The richer you are, the fewer kids you're likely to have. Richer countries have lower birth rates than much poorer countries. The problems is clearly not financial, it's cultural.
@@GrayBlanket And maternal mortality rates were high throughout those centuries. Infant mortality was abysmal. Who wants to go backwards? Men aren't the ones pushing in pain in the delivery room, nor are they the ones being sliced open when a complication warrants a C-section surgery, but here are the men... running their mouths. 🙄
@@natashadickson4819 And yet, women chose to procreate. You have that same choice. Pregnancy care has never been better, but we must not rest on our laurels. Our culture as expressed in our social and economic systems must protect babies, mothers, and fathers. That doesn't happen through acrimonous gender-war insults like you just slung at me. Peace to you, Natasha. ☮ Live long and prosper. 🖖
@@GrayBlanket YES!!! I made that choice to procreate in 2005 but I had Healthcare insurance that covered prenatal care, delivery, and postnatal care. You nonchalantly mentioned childbearing without health insurance in past centuries as if women are expected suck it and to go back to that. Nope. Peace to you too.
Maybe the FHA could offer home loans where the intrest rates go down by 1% for each kid you have. So for example a 7% rate would become a 6% rate if you had a kid or a 4% rate if you have 3 kids.
I'd rather not continue punishing childfree people by forcing them to pay more for stuff. We already pay more in income taxes, now you want us to pay more for interest rates? How about just lowering taxes and interest rates for everyone?
I think it would be easier to offer a monthly housing allowance per child. If you have a mortgage you get x amount per month per child. But this is dicey, what do you do with renters? And is it really fair to single people? Idk…
@@Alex-12381 Because that wouldn't incentivize the procreation that the commenter wants to encourage.
@@joshuavinski5596 Incentives aren't about fairness, they're about encouraging certain behavior. If a bachelor wants a monthly housing allowance per child, he can get married and have kids. That's the whole point.
@@GrayBlanket again selfish males. Men need ZERO incentive to want to get married. They already do. It’s women who do.
There are no more Indian lands to sreal, Hawaii has already been taken. I guess Canada could be available. The rest of Mexico is there. America grew by confiscating other people's lands. Birth rate is significant. But so was territorial expansion.
The US had a positive birthrate and decent growth for a good 80 years or more after any serious expansion was essentially over.
@@chickenfishhybrid44 And the Irequois stole land from other tribes. Might makes right. That's the way 99,9% of history has gone down. Where are the Gauls in France and Ostrogoths in Italy now?
It has nothing to do with stay at home moms being happy it’s the liberal idea that individuals don’t have an obligation to form families.
This idea is wrong. Peoples “happines” is subordinate to their duty to have kids
Cue my applause! You, sir, nailed it. Modernity's failure is nowhere more evident than in the industrialized birth rates which guarantee their own extinction.
It literally not. I promise you it’s not. Happiness is almost a biological imperative. Bc people will self delete if they aren’t happy. THAT is an extinction formula, and very very counter to LIFE. I mean women haven’t been happy and they’ve stopped having children. What does that tell you???? Y’all are really bad at making society.
Let the dude talk. Lots of interruption in the beginning.