I see 80,000 now. As a 23 year old who has been investing since I was 15, I have 50 year goals and he seems like one of the very few rational long term oriented people + such a nice perspective on risk. Sven you are building a great subscriber base with long term orientation. Cheers
I’m about 55% real estate, 15% cash, 20% stocks, 5% bonds. I think ‘Money’ and ‘The intelligent investor’ have really helped me a lot. To try to minimize the downside and maximum the upside while looking at risk. My only shock is I thought you’d be more in stocks. Great video!
First Majestic Silver, a silver mining company, lost 80% in stock value during the 2008 crisis; much like many miners. If you purchased the stock before the crash you would have made 400% in 3 years. If you purchased it after the crash you would have made 2000% in 2.5 years. This may or may not happen this time, thats why at least some exposure to such stocks is very necessary
SuperiorSeven, look at government treasury and bond ETFs like TLT, VGLT, PLW , TLH etc. most have dividend yield around 2.5% and is liquid. I do have some gold ETF (GLD) but its like less than 1% of my portfolio. If 2008 was to happen again you could sell these ETFs and buy stocks in good companies.
Great Video Sven! In the past 3 months I have moved from 90/10 to 50/50 (stocks/cash). I expect to continue reducing my stock portfolio as more of my investments are becoming overvalued.
Hamish Hodder, kind of agree re-balancing your portfolio is good practice, I try to do it every year. My breakdown is more like stock/leap options to synthetic cash and it is more like (80/20) right now. I keep at most 3% cash the rest of the 20% are in treasury (%9 TLT like ETFs) and RIETS (8%). In a black swan scenario if 1987 happen I would have 20% to put into the market. If I'm lucky and follow the economic data (2008 recession probability) I probably would re-balance to 50/50 but I see no signs of a bad economy within the year, the recession probability is 13% but I could be wrong --no one ever really knows.
Been with you since you had 100 subscribers! 100% back you. Following your success and always excited to learn from your videos and get an insight on a different perspective! Can’t wait for your website.
i started only a few months ago because this is the first time i have the ability to set aside any money to invest. not because of stock market exuberance from peers
Thank you for all your insight. I will continue to watch listen and learn. Looking forward to your comments and advise as we move forward into this extremely overvalued market. 10% equities mostly dividend paving 10% physical precious metals 80% cash & waiting I have a family member who has done very very very well In the markets over the past 6 decades. One thing he told me is one of the most important things in investing is patience. This is sometimes difficult to keep in check, as we all live in a world of “ i want it right now!”
Congrats on hitting over 800 subscribers! Looking forward to the website. My financial situation is similar to yours in many ways. I began seriously investing in 2006. Lucked out when I had to sell 50% of my holdings in late 2007 to pre-pay the 1st semester of my MBA. Since my first job I've been putting away ~30% of my gross income every year. Bought my home in the US in 2014, almost at the bottom of the market. Locked a fixed rate of 3.6% on a 30 year mortgage. Home has increased 36% in value since I bought it. My holdings are: Real Estate = 49% (current market value of my home minus the outstanding mortgage) ETFs & Mutual Funds = 26% (401K retirement account) Stocks = 14% Cash = 10% Gold = 1% I'm planning on increasing cash gradually. Any advice is welcome. Thanks!
My problem was staying overly invested in gold/silver mining stocks instead of index funds. I missed out on a decade of great returns because of it. Since I recently retired, I have about 15% of my investments in stocks (high yield dividend etfs only). It would be great if you did a video on the effect of dividend investing during bear markets. My understanding is that the reinvestment of dividends during downturns has a moderating affect on your losses and explodes your capital gains when markets recover.
ContrarianExpatriate I’m 31 and started investing 2-3 years ago and did it solely in the gold and silver mining stocks. I definitely beat the market but I am now realizing I am way too invested in gold/silver. I am now investing in an index fund and selecting stocks not in precious metals.
Hi Sven, this is your best video to date! You mentioned a website that would be available to understand your posts. Can you please provide that link? Thanks for all you do!
Hi Sven, thanks for your advices and great content. I've started selling stocks around a month ago. With help of your videos I realized how risky my investments were, and indeed I used to worry a lot about them. And I left only investments I'm confident about and in the meanwhile learning about market, companies and investing. I started investing in Sep 2017. It was a good ride as I made many mistakes, learned from them and even managed to get some gains. now I'm trying to focus on doing good researches and be patient. As of now my portfolio is: 4% 401k 25% stocks 61% cash
I started off with a brokerage account in 2012, then didn't do a lot between 2014 and 2017, then came back in late 2017 and only then realized that stocks had gone up 50-100 % without me having been invested anywhere. Then I lost a lot of money around the end of the year, and now I've decided to commit to a dividend strategy so I don't have to worry about the ups and downs any more. What I care about now are solid companies, great brands, acceptable payout ratio, dividend growth, growing earnings and cash flow. I want to aim at an average 5% dividend yield 5 years from now, build up savings year after year, and maybe 15 years from now, a yield of 5-10 % will be okay for my wife and myself to work less / save less while the dividend yield goes up. If stocks go down, it's a bargain, if stocks go up, that's a sign that the company is doing well (of course I have to check if predictions come true). I admit to making a lot of mistakes, but now I've realized that I don't need a tenbagger to be happy and I can reach my goals with relatively little risk in my opinion.
Excellent strategy! I think you will also find a lot of value on this channel for that. Going to edit a video that will talk about a stock that might fit your needs :-)
I'm looking forward to that! Dividend stocks are rewarding even if stock prices can't decide where to go. I currently own Allianz as a solid medium dividend growth / medium dividend yield stock and Starbucks as a low div . yield / high dividend growth stock.
Depends if you look only at the stock price or on recurrent earnings like dividends. When market goes nowhere during several years you'll prefer the second option.
I started investing way too quick at around June 2017 in brk and made a fairly big profit, but after thinking about it I think I'm going to trim to the point where I'd be if I dollar cost averaged into brk from day one. I'm going to write off my abnornamlly high gains from investing all at once as gamblers luck and just dollar cost average from here on out.
I am very surprised of your 7% in stocks. My focus at the moment is on nice dividend paying stocks which proved in the past that they are able to continue paying dividends in difficult times. I don't care if the price of those stocks go down as long as they are generating cashflow by dividends. Moreover I am very interested in buying REITs to diversify my portfolio with real estate. I think its not a good idea to be not invested in stocks just because of high prices. Asset allocation and rebalancing is the key factor. You never know how long stocks will do well. Moreover I keenly watch the yield curve and the LEI index, which provide nice informations about possible bear markets. In the moment when the yield curve inverts, investing in bonds with a certain part of my portfolio is a must; expecting rising bond prices due to declining interest rates.
UniProcket - There are different ways to successfully invest in the stock market. You're looking for dividends and consistent cash returns and Sven is focusing on a holding a handful of stocks with multi-bagger potential. I choose (try) to do a combination of both.
also the taxes for dividend gains is more then for gains from selling stocks and they vary depending on how much in dividend you make. in canada it wasnt worth me investing in dividends cause of what i was expecting to make roughly and how taxes work. maybe its different in your country but its worth taking a look at.
Hello, Sven. I've started to convert my shares into the cash, but I think I also must be with some good stocks. I think that margin of safety can be a protection (some sort of). I think this way. I bought shares of one Chinese company at p/e = 6.32 and p/bv = 0.85. This company is dynamic, increasing net income, increasing number of customers, in a good location, good demographic trend, little competition, etc. (I'm talking about HNA Infrastructure Co Ltd). So it is not a value trap. If tomorow the receccion will come and the price will fall to 50%... Than p/e will be near 4 and p/bv less than 0,5. Someone (and I'm too) will start to increase position and move price up. Also we can say about Companhia Paranaense de Energia (It was observed in one of your videos). So margin of safety rules?!
Congrats on crossing 8K subscribers. Real Estate (especially house you live in) & Cash seems the safest strategy in this over-leveraged global environment. If you had a 401K - What would you choose? Just Cash?
now, if I had a 401k that I invested through the last 10 years I would perhaps just trim the positions, let's say to 33% in cash like Buffett has and make sure the 66% is of great quality, when opportunities come, increase that to 100%
Thank you for all your effort! I've been enjoying your material for a few months now. Keep it up!!!...How do you feel about gold/silver the ratio and feelings about future prices? That was a good call on NG. I didn't go in but I've had my eye on it since you mentioned it.
Thanks for creating this channel and for your thought-provoking videos, Sven. The comments are quite educational as well. The best way to have a good idea is to have a lot of ideas :)
Have a thought: there are stock markets ups and downs - but for high ROCE emerging businesses with extreme growth at decent valuations should we really go by general market ups and downs. But if we do not get into these individual gems at the right time, they grow too big later. The idea is to catch them when they are not too big. So what is the objective of tracking general market ups and downs - Keep lots of free cash for a good general dip. Should we depend on general Sp 500 valuation or valuation of individual stocks? Though, now - its difficult to find stocks which are at decent valuations.
Thanks for the video. Was really insightful. Funny thing, i was listening to rich dad, poor dad audible and the author also talked about how he purchased real estate during periods when housing market crashed and no one wanted to buy houses.
Never change Sven. You are the best. BFF. About me, I am 33 years old, I stared 2 years ago, And I have around 70% in stocks, 25% in cash, 3% in Bitcoins and 2% gold miner. I am planning to increase me cash in 5-6 months to around 70% in mexican currency at 7% fixed rate. Also increase my gold position in 3%. Then I will wait to buy RealStates as nowadays I do not have a own home. Maybe I will spend/invest around the 70% of my wealth to buy with cash.
Here Real State interest rates are now 10%-11%. The reason I do not have a home now is they are very expenses, now are economy in Mexico is more or less ok. The reason I have more in stocks than in cash is 1) elections year with a bad candidate of some political forces, 2) no so easy to buy usd at good price. Cheaper to buy stocks (usd) and I am expecting a 10% of devaluation in elections.
hi from Brazil Sven, learning a lot with you. please keep posting! Question: I have only one house for leaving with my family, no morgage/debt. If I consider my house as an asset class in my portfolio I land in 86% Real State, 9% Bonds, 4% Stocks, 2% Cash. If not consider my house then 60% Bonds, 29% Stocks, 11% Cash. Which way do I need to see my portfolio? * Bonds in Brazil are not negligible - we have `Inflation + 4.6% yield` for 8 years treasure bonds and some liquidit to sell.
Great video, again! And congrats on the rapid growth of your channel! The other day I saw a recent vid of you in which you confessed being half Italian when you joked about the Italians. I would be very interested in seeing a vid about yourself were you tell a bit more about your background and roots, explain where you grew up, where you studied and what your theses were about (Master and PhD). Just saying. Kind regards from Amsterdam
As someone relatively new to investing, your videos really help to keep long term cycles in consideration. It is easy to get carried away with an "invest everything" mentality. Do you have any advice for someone whose circle of competence doesn't translate directly to investing (i.e. teaching)? I thought the 90% rule of net losers applied to traders only, not long term investors. That data seems to support the case for investing passively in index funds, wouldn't it? Although, I imagine that many retail investors can still find ways to buy high and sell low. This was one of your best videos to date! Thanks for all the amazing content.
Hi Matthew, the success of index funds in the last 35 years is mostly thanks to declining interest rates. Those won't work that well if we see those decline for the next 30 years. If your circle of competence isn't investing, I would learn as much as I can and stick to cash until I know what I am doing. People like to invest first and learn later, not a good idea.
Sven I'm pretty sure you mentioned before that inflation can have a negative effect on businesses, but you also said businesses are a protection against inflation. I'm curious why that is (if I'm remembering correctly)?
Can you look at the semiconductor sector? Many people are calling the top of the cycle but CEOs are saying they do not see things slowing down as far as they can see. The two leaders in the industry are LRCX and AMAT
Congrats on 8k subscribers Sven! At first I was surprised for the 7% but it makes sense for you to hedge your portfolio. After all, you’ve made several videos on it. Also, who’s to say the company positions you have or have discussed are ones you’ll have stronger positions down the road since your following them. Someone likes to play chess I have a feeling. ;)
Surprised by amount of real estate but probably safest at this point of the cycle. All my stocks in commodities bought in last 4 years, oil and gas first, gold last 2-3 (majority junior explorers)years, now base metals copper and zinc, palm oil and this year adding to uranium holdings perhaps some gold producers (EGO)as some disconnect between miners and price of gold at present. Congrats on 8k well deserved
Around 1% of my portfolio is now EGO. I bought it at $1.18. I am betting on the stock value moving up once arbitration with the Greek government concludes in April. Considering how bad Greece needs foreign investments to create jobs, I think Eldorado will get the permits it needs to operate in Halkidiki; the Kassandra mine is responsible for 2000 direct and indirect jobs in Greece, Eldorado is the largest foreign investor in Greece. I am hoping for another positive move once the Syriza socialist / eco-friendly party looses its majority in the Hellenic Parliament; could take a while but politics revolves in cycles. That said, EGO is a long, long, long term hold. :)
Worth noting that valuations by themselves may not be the best market timing tool. Markets can always get more overvalued and vice Versa to zero at least.
My wealth is around 80% house equity (of which I made 50% "returns" over the last 4 years because of crazy real estate prices in my country), 10% cash and 5% stocks, 5 Swiss stored gold etf). Plan to add a few EMM value stocks asap.
that is a good question! Invest in things that will certainly get you to your goals. Start with your goal in mind and then do what is necessary to achieve it without risk. Don't risk what you need for something you don't need.
The part about the "WEALTH" might be misinterpreted. One thing is your own home, another one is an investment property, which is an income generator. That is why in order to qualify as "accredited investor" they exclude the value of your residence in the calculation. Second point is how you own that investment property. If you have 30% in equity and the rents are just enough to pay your mortgage, your asset is 30% of the property (not 100%) and your cash flow from the asset is zero. It actually can turn out to be a cost (in term of extra ordinary maintenance etc). So in my list of assets I can put the property (we also hope that it will appreciate) but is not an income producing asset for now (like a stock that is not paying dividends) therefore I need to be carful on how I read my list. My home is not an asset (unless you own it though a trust/company and you pay a rent...to yourself
Thanks Matt, the home is like a stock, soon to become cash and cash equivalent, so that is the reason. Flipping investment with no money down here in the Netherlands. Among the best in my carreer, I still just have to sell it in the next 6 months.
Great video, I think you answered many questions with it. What do you think about keeping averaging into dividend paying stocks through the rest of the cycle? Perhaps 25% of monthly savings now and increasing when it starts to go down.
7:17 :). Looking forward to your risk/probability assignments.. will learn a lot from it. I am most surprised by how lucky your son is to get to learn from you firsthand. I started in last 3 years! I got 0% Real Estate (looking to start when others are panicking as), 60% cash. 30% Precious metal, 10% crypto stuff (I don't call what I have as 'currency' as the ones I got don't have their primary function as currency) (this is more than 10% now as I am in good profits... even in this crypto bear market). I spent maximum time in learning crypto... and got it as the least % of my portfolio... similar to yours favorite: Stocks. :). Cheers
This is super good one, looks like REIT did very well in long-term, recently REITs are down quite a bit, and valuation seems good, yield % are high with household debt way below history high, could that be good investment now?
be careful with REITs, they have higher interest rates going against them on the leverage, cost side and higher interest rates making their valuation less attractive, plus there is a lot of overbuilding. Be, very very very very very careful there! There will be winners but......
Great channel! Two questions for you. If Trump completes the trade deal with China, 'could be the biggest deal in history' sic. This could sustain the business cycle for several more years? Why no bonds in the portfolio? In 2008 Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV) returned 55%.
no bonds, I have better returns elsewhere so no need to hold something that is a money losing guarantee:-) Also, if interest rates go up, bye bye bonds.
Hi Sven , i really like your videos , they are much related to the the ground truth than flying illusionary .can you please make things more clear about chinese stocks which traded in american market ? In case of american market crisis are they gonna be affected badly as well? I believe in Tencent abilities and wonder about my position at the moment and if shall i sell it in order-to rebuy later on in better market opportunities... many thanks!
I had accidentally left my laptop on playing youtube videos while I was at work and your videos were playing by the time I got back. I just began investing a few weeks ago and I just like that you seem to have a lot of insight, more than the other people I've seen on youtube. in other words, you know exactly what your talking about and I can tell this just from your mannerisms and the vast presentation of your knowledge. You would be a more effective educator to semi-experienced investors but your insight can be very valuable to an investor at just about any level.
Sven - Excellent video... Here are my current allocations. 50% stocks 35% real estate (actual) 15% cash I've been slowly paring my stock holdings down over the past year and am looking to get cash to at least 25% by mid-year at the latest. I have a set of core stocks I bought 9-10 years ago that I will likely hold the majority of going forward. At least for the time being. I look forward to checking out your website as well.
Not surprised by the 7% stocks, judging by your videos I expected maximum 20% stocks. I just started investing this month and the more I watch your videos the more concerned I am! I'm way too late to the party. Looking forward to that website with your framework.
haha, how about the All Weather portfolio, Sven? ;) Honestly, I agree with you. I have 11% in stocks right now, 38% gold (physical and ETF), rest in cash. What currency would you recommend? I keep 50/50 in USD/EUR, because the dollar is tanking, however, not sure if it's correct...
Sven Night Shyamalan with the plot twist over here. I would have thought that you were at least 30% in the market considering it's your passion. I'm mostly in cash, but I'm adding gold and silver miners cause their stocks are cheap compared to their respective commodities atm. Im also holding some of my very bad stock picks because they seem almost derisked at this point. I cashed out on the ones that performed well in the past year. Thanks for sharing another great video
Do you remember in 2008 and 2009 the media was scaring everyone about the “debt ceiling” and the “fiscal cliff”? I think that’s one reason people were afraid to buy stocks when they should have been buying them.
Fantastic video Sven! A little bit surprised that you are in stocks "only" 7% of your portfolio btw if you have 80+% in real estate that's comprehensive. In recent time my family got something like 60000€ from the sell of an old estate what's your suggestion on how to invest that money? Did you have any fund to reccomend? Our goal is to preserve the value and grow it a bit for the future. Thanks
That is a really tough thing to think of in this market? Did you check real estate around where you are from? What is the rent yield and can you perhaps get a fixed interest mortgage to leverage a bit?
I will look for some opportunities ;) btw have you ever checked CHL stock? They seem a very solid company and they paid a high dividend (5.8%) and atm they are in the 52weeks-low range
Very good info thanks, I wonder if increasement in housing prices have something to do with rising costs in environmental certificates such as expensive materials to insulate homes etc.. easy lending by banks controlled by governements (behind the curtin) It seems to me that the governement has found a new piggy bank in real estate... building houses creates lots of jobs and income for government and not to mention the transfer and all property taxes... in some countries 1/2 of the value of a new property development goes to the pocket of the governement, but you can lend more and longer time (30y) at very low interest... Bubble ?
huge bubble, real estate prices are up because interest rates are so low. Plus, central banks have printed so much money that it has to come out somewhere! I don't even see that real estate prices are up, I mostly see it as just inflation :-)
I'm trying to balance your two ideas in my mind , I feel like if I sell my stocks I'm "timing" the market but if I don't sell I feel like I'm being greedy in a time when I should be fearful. gahhh
Sven, what do you think of Walmart right now? Some say it has even more potential than Amazon because it already has so much bricks and mortar infrastructure. Also, I run a small web design company, really more as a hobby than a business, and if you need hosting or other assistance with your new website I would be happy to help out for little to no cost. Your work is important and I want to help!
I was looking at Walmart around $60 just a few years ago and thinking it is a good buy:-) Now, hm, possibly, the growth was disappointing for the markets but it is still growing, if gains traction might be really good!
Yep,numbers dont lie,but that only if the market dont grow, you have to follow the trend adapt. When market is like this no point in dividend,but when market is bearish or stale, Dividend i s King.
I'm surprised you are not looking at cash more skeptically knowing that the debt cycle is coming to a head. I was just a baby in the 80s, but from what I understand inflation will take your cash for a ride before you can take advantage of interest rates that will rise to meet it. For myself, I cant believe how many people dont seem to care for or want physical gold right now. I work in the mining industry for one of the companies you've profiled and I know how expensive, risky and uncertain a venture it is to pull the yellow metal out of the ground. To skip owning the risk of stock and buy the gold as as subsitute for cash seems like a bargain to me at this point. Its more viscous than cash but you get to hedge while serving the same function.
Sven, you say that nobody knows what will happen in the next 10 years, but you seem pretty confident that we are approaching a bear market. Did I get the wrong impression?
1:23 "...90% of you those are watching this video will lose money..." Sven I think those of us who are watching this video are the among the other 10% to be honest.
Yes, it went up. I live in Brazil and just starting getting into the investing. We have elections coming soon and the market is expected to go on a wild ride. I am seeing some opportunities to buy cheap. by my knowledge is still limited since I am quite new to investing.
Hi Sven, interesting video; however I think that your calculation at 2:00 is incorrect since you should have started from the market return (which is what all investors gain collectively) and then subtract the returns of 10% of outperformers (in your example), to get an estimate of what 90% of people gain. In sofar as you started instead from the average investor return, which already takes into account the fact that most investors lag the market, a methodological fallacy seems to have slipped into your calculation... Second point, you quote Buffett and Graham on many occasions, and show pictures of them. However, Buffett has recently encouraged investors to buy the S&P500 (most recently here finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-says-couldve-turned-114-400000-230140222.html?guccounter=1 ) and uses as a criterion the advice that 'stocks are purchased at a sensible multiple of earnings relative to prevailing interest rates' thus evoking the FED model (a version of which is already found in Graham's writings). Based on this model, stocks are indeed not expensive - a point your videos fail to address.
Great points, thanks for pointing that out! On Buffett, I am always amazed how different is what he is saying and what he is doing. Plus, the market might not work as it did in the past 75 year.
Quite a depressing video, but thanks for sharing. 😁 It's buffling how few subscribers you have - because the content of your videos is great. Wish I had found your channel earlier. I watched a lot of your videos in the last week. I wish you said metals (copper, nickel) and miners were the way to go now. This video is quite diametral to the 100 videos I watched. 😄 Are you from Croatia, Italy? And why did you choose the Netherlands, if I may ask?
I was really bullish on copper and zinc in the last two years, hence the videos. However, the prices not are 50% and 100% higher, thus the environment is much riskier. But, I am exposed to both metals with miners. I was born in Croatia, father Italian, mother is Dutch and moved to the netherlands 4 years ago because the quality of life is extremely high and the mentality is also excellent.
Invest with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. Thanks for answering. Netherlands must be nice but I bet you miss the Mediterranean climate and the warm sea. 😉 Spent some vacations in Croatia.
Hi Sven, I like your son's portfolio more 😃 Honestly I am bit surprise, that you don't have any precious metals. This 13% in cash can be split. The Gold/Dow ratio favours gold. Are you missing here something? Or I am missing it 😃
Thank you for all the effort you put into your videos Sven. Very informative and super appreciated !!
As a matter of fact, this is the most down to earth advice I've ever heard. Thank you.
Congrats on 8k subscribers !
Thanks, really appreciate each of you!
60,000 now!
I see 80,000 now. As a 23 year old who has been investing since I was 15, I have 50 year goals and he seems like one of the very few rational long term oriented people + such a nice perspective on risk. Sven you are building a great subscriber base with long term orientation. Cheers
We love you Dr Carlin!
I’m about 55% real estate, 15% cash, 20% stocks, 5% bonds. I think ‘Money’ and ‘The intelligent investor’ have really helped me a lot. To try to minimize the downside and maximum the upside while looking at risk. My only shock is I thought you’d be more in stocks. Great video!
Thanks! Yes, I thought I was also more in stocks but it seems not :-)
First Majestic Silver, a silver mining company, lost 80% in stock value during the 2008 crisis; much like many miners. If you purchased the stock before the crash you would have made 400% in 3 years. If you purchased it after the crash you would have made 2000% in 2.5 years. This may or may not happen this time, thats why at least some exposure to such stocks is very necessary
SuperiorSeven, look at government treasury and bond ETFs like TLT, VGLT, PLW , TLH etc. most have dividend yield around 2.5% and is liquid. I do have some gold ETF (GLD) but its like less than 1% of my portfolio. If 2008 was to happen again you could sell these ETFs and buy stocks in good companies.
Great Video Sven! In the past 3 months I have moved from 90/10 to 50/50 (stocks/cash). I expect to continue reducing my stock portfolio as more of my investments are becoming overvalued.
Happy to hear the investments are becoming overvalued, means you did well!
Hamish Hodder, kind of agree re-balancing your portfolio is good practice, I try to do it every year. My breakdown is more like stock/leap options to synthetic cash and it is more like (80/20) right now. I keep at most 3% cash the rest of the 20% are in treasury (%9 TLT like ETFs) and RIETS (8%). In a black swan scenario if 1987 happen I would have 20% to put into the market. If I'm lucky and follow the economic data (2008 recession probability) I probably would re-balance to 50/50 but I see no signs of a bad economy within the year, the recession probability is 13% but I could be wrong --no one ever really knows.
Been with you since you had 100 subscribers! 100% back you. Following your success and always excited to learn from your videos and get an insight on a different perspective! Can’t wait for your website.
Thanks for your support Adam!
i started only a few months ago because this is the first time i have the ability to set aside any money to invest. not because of stock market exuberance from peers
Sven, I control the global stock market. If I get in, it drops. If I get out, it goes up. I never imagined I would be so powerful.
hahahahah, good one!
Thank you for all your insight.
I will continue to watch listen and learn.
Looking forward to your comments and advise as we move forward into this extremely overvalued market.
10% equities mostly dividend paving
10% physical precious metals
80% cash & waiting
I have a family member who has done very very very well
In the markets over the past 6 decades.
One thing he told me
is one of the most important things in investing is patience.
This is sometimes difficult to keep in check, as we all live in a world of “ i want it right now!”
Patience is the key!!!
Most honest person about investing
Thank you
Thanks!
Congrats on hitting over 800 subscribers! Looking forward to the website.
My financial situation is similar to yours in many ways.
I began seriously investing in 2006. Lucked out when I had to sell 50% of my holdings in late 2007 to pre-pay the 1st semester of my MBA.
Since my first job I've been putting away ~30% of my gross income every year.
Bought my home in the US in 2014, almost at the bottom of the market. Locked a fixed rate of 3.6% on a 30 year mortgage. Home has increased 36% in value since I bought it.
My holdings are:
Real Estate = 49% (current market value of my home minus the outstanding mortgage)
ETFs & Mutual Funds = 26% (401K retirement account)
Stocks = 14%
Cash = 10%
Gold = 1%
I'm planning on increasing cash gradually. Any advice is welcome. Thanks!
happy to see my viewevership is very well diversified and rational:-)
My problem was staying overly invested in gold/silver mining stocks instead of index funds. I missed out on a decade of great returns because of it.
Since I recently retired, I have about 15% of my investments in stocks (high yield dividend etfs only).
It would be great if you did a video on the effect of dividend investing during bear markets. My understanding is that the reinvestment of dividends during downturns has a moderating affect on your losses and explodes your capital gains when markets recover.
ContrarianExpatriate I’m 31 and started investing 2-3 years ago and did it solely in the gold and silver mining stocks. I definitely beat the market but I am now realizing I am way too invested in gold/silver. I am now investing in an index fund and selecting stocks not in precious metals.
yes, but check how the ETF is weighted because many stocks with high dividends won't pay them in a recession.
Hi Sven, this is your best video to date! You mentioned a website that would be available to understand your posts. Can you please provide that link? Thanks for all you do!
Still have to make it - plan to put my research behind it!
This has aged really well
Hi Sven, thanks for your advices and great content. I've started selling stocks around a month ago. With help of your videos I realized how risky my investments were, and indeed I used to worry a lot about them. And I left only investments I'm confident about and in the meanwhile learning about market, companies and investing. I started investing in Sep 2017. It was a good ride as I made many mistakes, learned from them and even managed to get some gains. now I'm trying to focus on doing good researches and be patient.
As of now my portfolio is:
4% 401k
25% stocks
61% cash
Being patient is the key and the hardest thing with investing!
I started off with a brokerage account in 2012, then didn't do a lot between 2014 and 2017, then came back in late 2017 and only then realized that stocks had gone up 50-100 % without me having been invested anywhere. Then I lost a lot of money around the end of the year, and now I've decided to commit to a dividend strategy so I don't have to worry about the ups and downs any more.
What I care about now are solid companies, great brands, acceptable payout ratio, dividend growth, growing earnings and cash flow. I want to aim at an average 5% dividend yield 5 years from now, build up savings year after year, and maybe 15 years from now, a yield of 5-10 % will be okay for my wife and myself to work less / save less while the dividend yield goes up.
If stocks go down, it's a bargain, if stocks go up, that's a sign that the company is doing well (of course I have to check if predictions come true).
I admit to making a lot of mistakes, but now I've realized that I don't need a tenbagger to be happy and I can reach my goals with relatively little risk in my opinion.
Excellent strategy! I think you will also find a lot of value on this channel for that. Going to edit a video that will talk about a stock that might fit your needs :-)
I'm looking forward to that! Dividend stocks are rewarding even if stock prices can't decide where to go. I currently own Allianz as a solid medium dividend growth / medium dividend yield stock and Starbucks as a low div . yield / high dividend growth stock.
Depends if you look only at the stock price or on recurrent earnings like dividends. When market goes nowhere during several years you'll prefer the second option.
yes, dividends are a great strategy but one to be careful with as the cycle shifts!
Invest with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.
Dividend yield is a good indicator if the stock price is high or low.
I started investing way too quick at around June 2017 in brk and made a fairly big profit, but after thinking about it I think I'm going to trim to the point where I'd be if I dollar cost averaged into brk from day one. I'm going to write off my abnornamlly high gains from investing all at once as gamblers luck and just dollar cost average from here on out.
I'm glad your channel is growing, thanks for the videos!
Thanks for the support!
Love your content Sven! I ordered your book a few weeks ago, looking forward to reading it.
Thanks
I am very surprised of your 7% in stocks.
My focus at the moment is on nice dividend paying stocks which
proved in the past that they are able to continue paying dividends in difficult times.
I don't care if the price of those stocks go down as long as they are generating cashflow by dividends.
Moreover I am very interested in buying REITs to diversify my portfolio with real estate.
I think its not a good idea to be not invested in stocks just because of high prices.
Asset allocation and rebalancing is the key factor. You never know how long stocks will do well.
Moreover I keenly watch the yield curve and the LEI index, which provide nice informations about
possible bear markets. In the moment when the yield curve inverts, investing in bonds with a certain
part of my portfolio is a must; expecting rising bond prices due to declining interest rates.
UniProcket - There are different ways to successfully invest in the stock market. You're looking for dividends and consistent cash returns and Sven is focusing on a holding a handful of stocks with multi-bagger potential. I choose (try) to do a combination of both.
Also, that stock exposure can change quickly with a bit of leverage:-) Further the real estate is really a great deal!
UniProcket, where could you find the chart for LEI index how does that predict possible bear market, just curious to know, thank you in advance.
also the taxes for dividend gains is more then for gains from selling stocks and they vary depending on how much in dividend you make. in canada it wasnt worth me investing in dividends cause of what i was expecting to make roughly and how taxes work. maybe its different in your country but its worth taking a look at.
Hello, Sven. I've started to convert my shares into the cash, but I think I also must be with some good stocks. I think that margin of safety can be a protection (some sort of). I think this way. I bought shares of one Chinese company at p/e = 6.32 and p/bv = 0.85. This company is dynamic, increasing net income, increasing number of customers, in a good location, good demographic trend, little competition, etc. (I'm talking about HNA Infrastructure Co Ltd). So it is not a value trap. If tomorow the receccion will come and the price will fall to 50%... Than p/e will be near 4 and p/bv less than 0,5. Someone (and I'm too) will start to increase position and move price up. Also we can say about Companhia Paranaense de Energia (It was observed in one of your videos). So margin of safety rules?!
HNA Infrastructure you say, will check it out, Thanks for sharing!
I was surprised with the low % of stocks investments, i was expecting to at least see the names of the companies.
You know the names if you have been watching the channel for a while, but all of it has been trimmed so...
thank you so much! i need to be patient! how will i really know when the market has crashed and won't go down even further? your channel is awesome.
How to know? Impossible, but when the valuation gives you a satisfying return, buy.
Sven, your channel is amazing - please continue on with the good work!
Thank you Johannes
Congrats on crossing 8K subscribers. Real Estate (especially house you live in) & Cash seems the safest strategy in this over-leveraged global environment. If you had a 401K - What would you choose? Just Cash?
now, if I had a 401k that I invested through the last 10 years I would perhaps just trim the positions, let's say to 33% in cash like Buffett has and make sure the 66% is of great quality, when opportunities come, increase that to 100%
Thank you for all your effort! I've been enjoying your material for a few months now. Keep it up!!!...How do you feel about gold/silver the ratio and feelings about future prices? That was a good call on NG. I didn't go in but I've had my eye on it since you mentioned it.
The ratio of gold silver doesn't mean anything, what happened in the past doesn't necessary average to the mean in the future.
Thanks for creating this channel and for your thought-provoking videos, Sven. The comments are quite educational as well. The best way to have a good idea is to have a lot of ideas :)
Thank you Slavomir for contributing with your comments, always a great read!
Very solid vdeo. Comphrehensive view of investing in the long term. Love your videos. Extremely illuminating" Please continue your great work.
thanks, I'll continue to do my best!
Have a thought: there are stock markets ups and downs - but for high ROCE emerging businesses with extreme growth at decent valuations should we really go by general market ups and downs. But if we do not get into these individual gems at the right time, they grow too big later. The idea is to catch them when they are not too big. So what is the objective of tracking general market ups and downs - Keep lots of free cash for a good general dip. Should we depend on general Sp 500 valuation or valuation of individual stocks? Though, now - its difficult to find stocks which are at decent valuations.
Thanks for the video. Was really insightful. Funny thing, i was listening to rich dad, poor dad audible and the author also talked about how he purchased real estate during periods when housing market crashed and no one wanted to buy houses.
be greedy when other are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy
Never change Sven. You are the best. BFF. About me, I am 33 years old, I stared 2 years ago, And I have around 70% in stocks, 25% in cash, 3% in Bitcoins and 2% gold miner. I am planning to increase me cash in 5-6 months to around 70% in mexican currency at 7% fixed rate. Also increase my gold position in 3%. Then I will wait to buy RealStates as nowadays I do not have a own home. Maybe I will spend/invest around the 70% of my wealth to buy with cash.
Yes, see what are the mortgage opportunities to leverage a bit but I don't know how are thing in Mexico.
Here Real State interest rates are now 10%-11%. The reason I do not have a home now is they are very expenses, now are economy in Mexico is more or less ok. The reason I have more in stocks than in cash is 1) elections year with a bad candidate of some political forces, 2) no so easy to buy usd at good price. Cheaper to buy stocks (usd) and I am expecting a 10% of devaluation in elections.
Very good explanations, in a very friendly manner. Excellent videos.
Thanks!
Love your videos, very good value.
hi from Brazil Sven, learning a lot with you. please keep posting! Question: I have only one house for leaving with my family, no morgage/debt. If I consider my house as an asset class in my portfolio I land in 86% Real State, 9% Bonds, 4% Stocks, 2% Cash. If not consider my house then 60% Bonds, 29% Stocks, 11% Cash. Which way do I need to see my portfolio?
* Bonds in Brazil are not negligible - we have `Inflation + 4.6% yield` for 8 years treasure bonds and some liquidit to sell.
Do it without the house as you can't sell the house to invest in other things.
Great video, again! And congrats on the rapid growth of your channel!
The other day I saw a recent vid of you in which you confessed being half Italian when you joked about the Italians. I would be very interested in seeing a vid about yourself were you tell a bit more about your background and roots, explain where you grew up, where you studied and what your theses were about (Master and PhD). Just saying.
Kind regards from Amsterdam
Haha, you live close to Amsterdam!?
Yep, I live in Blaricum:-) I'll have to make a video about who I am :-)
As usual, I really like your video. Thanks for your advice.
Great content! Scary but it’s the truth!! I have some stocks I own but I also have 40% cash
As someone relatively new to investing, your videos really help to keep long term cycles in consideration. It is easy to get carried away with an "invest everything" mentality. Do you have any advice for someone whose circle of competence doesn't translate directly to investing (i.e. teaching)?
I thought the 90% rule of net losers applied to traders only, not long term investors. That data seems to support the case for investing passively in index funds, wouldn't it? Although, I imagine that many retail investors can still find ways to buy high and sell low.
This was one of your best videos to date! Thanks for all the amazing content.
Hi Matthew, the success of index funds in the last 35 years is mostly thanks to declining interest rates. Those won't work that well if we see those decline for the next 30 years. If your circle of competence isn't investing, I would learn as much as I can and stick to cash until I know what I am doing. People like to invest first and learn later, not a good idea.
Gem. Happy u got the house u wanted. I’m sure it’s beautiful
thanks!
im suprise,but real estate is good,I like the diversity that you are teaching us.
Thanks!
Sven I'm pretty sure you mentioned before that inflation can have a negative effect on businesses, but you also said businesses are a protection against inflation. I'm curious why that is (if I'm remembering correctly)?
good businesses can increase prices if they have pricing power.
@@Value-Investing
Thanks for the replies
Can you look at the semiconductor sector? Many people are calling the top of the cycle but CEOs are saying they do not see things slowing down as far as they can see. The two leaders in the industry are LRCX and AMAT
not my circle of competence but it seems that there is not such a high competition as it was, will take a look.
Your videos have never been a joke ;-)
Congrats on 8k subscribers Sven! At first I was surprised for the 7% but it makes sense for you to hedge your portfolio. After all, you’ve made several videos on it. Also, who’s to say the company positions you have or have discussed are ones you’ll have stronger positions down the road since your following them. Someone likes to play chess I have a feeling. ;)
How do you know I like chess? :-))))))))) However, the strategy is such:-)
Surprised by amount of real estate but probably safest at this point of the cycle. All my stocks in commodities bought in last 4 years, oil and gas first, gold last 2-3 (majority junior explorers)years, now base metals copper and zinc, palm oil and this year adding to uranium holdings perhaps some gold producers (EGO)as some disconnect between miners and price of gold at present. Congrats on 8k well deserved
Cannot believe how cheap EGO is getting. Bought at 1.35 USD in January and at 1.14 USD last week. How low can we go you think?
Around 1% of my portfolio is now EGO. I bought it at $1.18. I am betting on the stock value moving up once arbitration with the Greek government concludes in April. Considering how bad Greece needs foreign investments to create jobs, I think Eldorado will get the permits it needs to operate in Halkidiki; the Kassandra mine is responsible for 2000 direct and indirect jobs in Greece, Eldorado is the largest foreign investor in Greece. I am hoping for another positive move once the Syriza socialist / eco-friendly party looses its majority in the Hellenic Parliament; could take a while but politics revolves in cycles. That said, EGO is a long, long, long term hold. :)
Worth noting that valuations by themselves may not be the best market timing tool. Markets can always get more overvalued and vice Versa to zero at least.
of, course, but those are a good risk metric and explain 1/3 of long term stock returns. 1/3 is better than nothing.
Thanks for sharing this great information 👍👍
My wealth is around 80% house equity (of which I made 50% "returns" over the last 4 years because of crazy real estate prices in my country), 10% cash and 5% stocks, 5 Swiss stored gold etf). Plan to add a few EMM value stocks asap.
I only have 17 years in my investing horizon Sven. What should I invest in. Thank you.
that is a good question! Invest in things that will certainly get you to your goals. Start with your goal in mind and then do what is necessary to achieve it without risk. Don't risk what you need for something you don't need.
*Beer case sounds good too! * ;)
The part about the "WEALTH" might be misinterpreted.
One thing is your own home, another one is an investment property, which is an income generator.
That is why in order to qualify as "accredited investor" they exclude the value of your residence in the calculation.
Second point is how you own that investment property. If you have 30% in equity and the rents are just enough to pay your mortgage, your asset is 30% of the property (not 100%) and your cash flow from the asset is zero. It actually can turn out to be a cost (in term of extra ordinary maintenance etc).
So in my list of assets I can put the property (we also hope that it will appreciate) but is not an income producing asset for now (like a stock that is not paying dividends) therefore I need to be carful on how I read my list. My home is not an asset (unless you own it though a trust/company and you pay a rent...to yourself
Thanks Matt, the home is like a stock, soon to become cash and cash equivalent, so that is the reason. Flipping investment with no money down here in the Netherlands. Among the best in my carreer, I still just have to sell it in the next 6 months.
Great video, I think you answered many questions with it. What do you think about keeping averaging into dividend paying stocks through the rest of the cycle? Perhaps 25% of monthly savings now and increasing when it starts to go down.
dollar cost averaging will always work as long as it is done consistently
7:17 :). Looking forward to your risk/probability assignments.. will learn a lot from it. I am most surprised by how lucky your son is to get to learn from you firsthand. I started in last 3 years! I got 0% Real Estate (looking to start when others are panicking as), 60% cash. 30% Precious metal, 10% crypto stuff (I don't call what I have as 'currency' as the ones I got don't have their primary function as currency) (this is more than 10% now as I am in good profits... even in this crypto bear market). I spent maximum time in learning crypto... and got it as the least % of my portfolio... similar to yours favorite: Stocks. :). Cheers
That stock return chart("stock gone nowhere") does not include dividends.
Nope, but if you include inflation, you are not much better off
Invest with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. yeah but was it still better than cash?
This is super good one, looks like REIT did very well in long-term, recently REITs are down quite a bit, and valuation seems good, yield % are high with household debt way below history high, could that be good investment now?
be careful with REITs, they have higher interest rates going against them on the leverage, cost side and higher interest rates making their valuation less attractive, plus there is a lot of overbuilding. Be, very very very very very careful there! There will be winners but......
Hi Sven, what are your gold mining holdings? EGO? TAHO? And what do you think of Amira, still like?
Don't like ANFI as much as before, there is a vid about it. Just a few gold holdings spread across the board of which EGO is one.
Anfi because of account receivables? Could you do a video with your gold mining stock choices?
Great channel! Two questions for you.
If Trump completes the trade deal with China, 'could be the biggest deal in history' sic. This could sustain the business cycle for several more years?
Why no bonds in the portfolio? In 2008 Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV) returned 55%.
no bonds, I have better returns elsewhere so no need to hold something that is a money losing guarantee:-) Also, if interest rates go up, bye bye bonds.
Hi Sven , i really like your videos , they are much related to the the ground truth than flying illusionary .can you please make things more clear about chinese stocks which traded in american market ? In case of american market crisis are they gonna be affected badly as well? I believe in Tencent abilities and wonder about my position at the moment and if shall i sell it in order-to rebuy later on in better market opportunities...
many thanks!
uh, China, there is so much under the cover that it is impossible to know here is an interesting video: ruclips.net/video/2biwaL1Fysg/видео.html
Wow, I'm very excited that I found your channel on accident. You definitely are different from any other youtuber that I've watched.
Thanks, great to have you here! How did you find me?
I had accidentally left my laptop on playing youtube videos while I was at work and your videos were playing by the time I got back. I just began investing a few weeks ago and I just like that you seem to have a lot of insight, more than the other people I've seen on youtube. in other words, you know exactly what your talking about and I can tell this just from your mannerisms and the vast presentation of your knowledge. You would be a more effective educator to semi-experienced investors but your insight can be very valuable to an investor at just about any level.
Thanks for sharing your portfolio!
Great guidelines. Thank you
I invested in stocks starting last September. With the cv I have now "lost" about 3000 dollars so far. Due to oil and the cv.
try investing in businesses, not stocks - you won't lose a dime:-)
You are very intelligent ......nobody is talking about deacelerating birth rates
thanks!
Sven - Excellent video... Here are my current allocations.
50% stocks
35% real estate (actual)
15% cash
I've been slowly paring my stock holdings down over the past year and am looking to get cash to at least 25% by mid-year at the latest. I have a set of core stocks I bought 9-10 years ago that I will likely hold the majority of going forward. At least for the time being.
I look forward to checking out your website as well.
Well diversified, that is the key!
Best video yet.
WOW, that is great to hear!
Not surprised by the 7% stocks, judging by your videos I expected maximum 20% stocks. I just started investing this month and the more I watch your videos the more concerned I am! I'm way too late to the party. Looking forward to that website with your framework.
Just invest every month and be sure to invest even more when nobody else is!
haha, how about the All Weather portfolio, Sven? ;) Honestly, I agree with you. I have 11% in stocks right now, 38% gold (physical and ETF), rest in cash. What currency would you recommend? I keep 50/50 in USD/EUR, because the dollar is tanking, however, not sure if it's correct...
all weather is good, my son's is relatively all-weather:-)
Currencies, I am not sure about those, perhaps rebalancing is the key!
Sven Night Shyamalan with the plot twist over here. I would have thought that you were at least 30% in the market considering it's your passion. I'm mostly in cash, but I'm adding gold and silver miners cause their stocks are cheap compared to their respective commodities atm. Im also holding some of my very bad stock picks because they seem almost derisked at this point. I cashed out on the ones that performed well in the past year. Thanks for sharing another great video
so happy to see so much well positioned viewers!
Great Video. Thank you!
Is your wealth allocation more or less the same now? More stocks?
50/50
Hi Sven what alpha gold miners stocks are you betting?
I have discussed here EGO and HMY.
These videos are great!
Do you remember in 2008 and 2009 the media was scaring everyone about the “debt ceiling” and the “fiscal cliff”? I think that’s one reason people were afraid to buy stocks when they should have been buying them.
when we will hear how stocks are risky again it will be the time to buy !
Fantastic video Sven! A little bit surprised that you are in stocks "only" 7% of your portfolio btw if you have 80+% in real estate that's comprehensive. In recent time my family got something like 60000€ from the sell of an old estate what's your suggestion on how to invest that money? Did you have any fund to reccomend? Our goal is to preserve the value and grow it a bit for the future. Thanks
That is a really tough thing to think of in this market? Did you check real estate around where you are from? What is the rent yield and can you perhaps get a fixed interest mortgage to leverage a bit?
I will look for some opportunities ;) btw have you ever checked CHL stock? They seem a very solid company and they paid a high dividend (5.8%) and atm they are in the 52weeks-low range
Very good info thanks, I wonder if increasement in housing prices have something to do with rising costs in environmental certificates such as expensive materials to insulate homes etc.. easy lending by banks controlled by governements (behind the curtin) It seems to me that the governement has found a new piggy bank in real estate... building houses creates lots of jobs and income for government and not to mention the transfer and all property taxes... in some countries 1/2 of the value of a new property development goes to the pocket of the governement, but you can lend more and longer time (30y) at very low interest... Bubble ?
huge bubble, real estate prices are up because interest rates are so low. Plus, central banks have printed so much money that it has to come out somewhere! I don't even see that real estate prices are up, I mostly see it as just inflation :-)
Could you please share the actual companies you have in your portfolio
I'm trying to balance your two ideas in my mind , I feel like if I sell my stocks I'm "timing" the market but if I don't sell I feel like I'm being greedy in a time when I should be fearful. gahhh
haha, depends on whether you can add and buy more in the downturn who no-one knows when will happen.
Sven, what do you think of Walmart right now? Some say it has even more potential than Amazon because it already has so much bricks and mortar infrastructure.
Also, I run a small web design company, really more as a hobby than a business, and if you need hosting or other assistance with your new website I would be happy to help out for little to no cost. Your work is important and I want to help!
I was looking at Walmart around $60 just a few years ago and thinking it is a good buy:-) Now, hm, possibly, the growth was disappointing for the markets but it is still growing, if gains traction might be really good!
For now I have all I need, thanks for the offer:-) Will keep it in mind
In the 10+ year periods of no growth, dividend could still have been helping to compound?
Yep,numbers dont lie,but that only if the market dont grow, you have to follow the trend adapt. When market is like this no point in dividend,but when market is bearish or stale, Dividend i s King.
yes, and if you dollar cost average even better. However, some expect the market to only go up by double digits forever!
@@Value-Investing Well as I have said previously double digit returns only apply to the last ten years, The market 100 year average is around 6-7%.
Whats 25 % Gorwth?
where?
Great video!!!
Sven do you still like Nevsun after dividend suspended?
I like it even more, it is a bet on Timok!
Is your 80% in real state in the forms of both REIT (besides the property you own)?
No REITs, I don't like those leveraged vehicles, prefer to have control
I started investing in late 2016..... i should cash out and buy AAA bond gradually....
Or just continue to add to your account every month, start thinking about rebalancing 10 years from now:-)
"If you want to get rich, get rich somewhere else. Use stock market to protect your wealth "
I'm surprised you are not looking at cash more skeptically knowing that the debt cycle is coming to a head. I was just a baby in the 80s, but from what I understand inflation will take your cash for a ride before you can take advantage of interest rates that will rise to meet it. For myself, I cant believe how many people dont seem to care for or want physical gold right now. I work in the mining industry for one of the companies you've profiled and I know how expensive, risky and uncertain a venture it is to pull the yellow metal out of the ground. To skip owning the risk of stock and buy the gold as as subsitute for cash seems like a bargain to me at this point. Its more viscous than cash but you get to hedge while serving the same function.
My cash is purely short term, will be deployed soon so no risk of inflation. As for gold, you are right but people should expect volatility there!
Can you make a video on how to value a company?
the sum of cash flows from today to judgment day discounted at what is your required rate of return
I have 1/3 of each,real estate, stock/funds, cash still.
Gold
Sven, you say that nobody knows what will happen in the next 10 years, but you seem pretty confident that we are approaching a bear market. Did I get the wrong impression?
I don't know what will happen, I am just looking at the prices now and those are a bit too high for me:-)
Does it mean that 5 years ago P/E ratios were much lower than now?
yes those where much lower
Oil and energy stocks were undervalued between 2015 and 2016
Yeap my magic eight ball is broken, anyone have a working one I can borrow?
1:23 "...90% of you those are watching this video will lose money..." Sven I think those of us who are watching this video are the among the other 10% to be honest.
I am so happy to hear that I very positively surprised by the comments!!!!
Sven, can you make a video about Brazil market?
hm, I was very attracted to it two years ago, I remember buying CIG at 1.05 :-) Now it is a bit pricier :-) Country analysis will come.
Yes, it went up. I live in Brazil and just starting getting into the investing. We have elections coming soon and the market is expected to go on a wild ride. I am seeing some opportunities to buy cheap. by my knowledge is still limited since I am quite new to investing.
you know, when the market is expected to do something, it is usually already priced in:-)
sure thing )
Sven i just added EGO at 1,1, lets see how it plays
exactly, a play:-)
Hi Sven, interesting video; however I think that your calculation at 2:00 is incorrect since you should have started from the market return (which is what all investors gain collectively) and then subtract the returns of 10% of outperformers (in your example), to get an estimate of what 90% of people gain. In sofar as you started instead from the average investor return, which already takes into account the fact that most investors lag the market, a methodological fallacy seems to have slipped into your calculation...
Second point, you quote Buffett and Graham on many occasions, and show pictures of them. However, Buffett has recently encouraged investors to buy the S&P500 (most recently here finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-says-couldve-turned-114-400000-230140222.html?guccounter=1 ) and uses as a criterion the advice that 'stocks are purchased at a sensible multiple of earnings relative to prevailing interest rates' thus evoking the FED model (a version of which is already found in Graham's writings). Based on this model, stocks are indeed not expensive - a point your videos fail to address.
Great points, thanks for pointing that out! On Buffett, I am always amazed how different is what he is saying and what he is doing. Plus, the market might not work as it did in the past 75 year.
Quite a depressing video, but thanks for sharing. 😁
It's buffling how few subscribers you have - because the content of your videos is great.
Wish I had found your channel earlier. I watched a lot of your videos in the last week.
I wish you said metals (copper, nickel) and miners were the way to go now. This video is quite diametral to the 100 videos I watched. 😄
Are you from Croatia, Italy? And why did you choose the Netherlands, if I may ask?
I was really bullish on copper and zinc in the last two years, hence the videos. However, the prices not are 50% and 100% higher, thus the environment is much riskier. But, I am exposed to both metals with miners.
I was born in Croatia, father Italian, mother is Dutch and moved to the netherlands 4 years ago because the quality of life is extremely high and the mentality is also excellent.
Invest with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.
Thanks for answering.
Netherlands must be nice but I bet you miss the Mediterranean climate and the warm sea. 😉 Spent some vacations in Croatia.
Yes, however we will be there two months this summer so it is the best time there:-) and enough to enjoy the sun:-)
Hi Sven,
I like your son's portfolio more 😃
Honestly I am bit surprise, that you don't have any precious metals. This 13% in cash can be split. The Gold/Dow ratio favours gold.
Are you missing here something? Or I am missing it 😃
I don't like physical gold personally, prefer other more liquid ways and easy to rebalance.