The Long Housing boom is over - No More Easy Wealth
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- Опубликовано: 3 май 2024
- Between 1960 and 2010, real UK house prices rose 600%, due to a surge in demand, combined with unwillingness to build. This was a global phenomenon, but are the factors which caused this rise coming to an end?
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We are going through mortgage application now and I have to say after all this is done I will not be looking at house prices, Intrest rates or any other news related to it for a very very long time. The struggles we went through with renting in London(dogdy landlords and agents, poor quality and lack of stability) and saving and searching for property were just horryfic. The UK housing market, mentality, laws and regulations need an absolute reset and proper dialogue between younger and older generation. Otherwise, nothing will change within that toxic industry.
We know it but the UK is run by a cabal and I cannot see that changing until they are removed
Until private banks are stopped from creating currency out of thin air through loans & Governments are able to deficit spend…nothing will change of that i can assure you..
Same as that but in Bristol. I've just cancelled the rightmove email alerts and wont be looking at it again until I need to move. I've followed the market for almost 4 years after the flat I was trying to buy then in 2020 fell through during covid and I saw prices skyrocket. I've finally had a offer accepted and I've gone for a flat I could easily afford rather than maxing out. After following the market so long and being obsessed with interest rates and the economy I've come to think we can only hope for prices to stagnate rather than drop enough to become truly affordable. We don't have enough housing to go round sadly and it will take decades to catch up. Although many wages have not risen, others have risen considerably and enough to cause competition over the housing that is available in the areas people want to live. I don't see prices rising as quick as they once did but I just can't see 20/30% drops coming for places that are priced properly for the areas that they're in.
@@matty506im in Bristol too, I almost got a flat but after seeing service fees for most places that wasn't a conversion it was better to buy a freehold house.
Its quite literally the worst house on one of thr better streets so I'll spending a lot of fixing it. Which I prefer over losing money on the black hole that's renting
@@koldwolf I was hoping to do that but my max budget of 250k just didn't cut it unless I wanted to move to hartcliffe or go further out to yate or weston. I'm managed to find a alright 1bed for 180k and its a shared freehold with £60pm service charge. Some other places I saw for way more money with a 95y lease and £200pm service. I'm quite glad I didn't max out now as it's so cheap I'm planning to take a few months off work to travel, My mortgage plus bills comes to slightly less than I've been paying to rent a bedroom in a HMO 🤣. Hope you're happy in your place and well done for getting there in this crazy market.
If you've traveled the first world then you'll notice UK houses are probably the ugliest in the world, especially flats/apartments
This comes about from developers which have no imagination and some do not even employ qualified architects, built to a cost and a planning system that lets quite a few disasters through and a customer base that believes there is no alternative/has no imagination.
100% true
False. Large Edwardian semis and Georgian terraces are some of the most beautiful built environments in the world. Anything built since the 1930s though, I'd have to agree with you
Not ugly, just low quality. Once finished it's already falling apart.
@@paulmitchell-gears6765 What's crazy is Edwardian houses tend to be cheaper than the other houses too! Sure they need a bit more love but are beautiful houses.
I'm not surprised that fertility rates have fallen! Housing supply is so short it's inflating the cost of property and other inflationary pressures are so great that people can barely afford to stay afloat by themselves.
The wealthier a society gets, the smaller the families. A worldwide effect. The projection 20 years ago was way lower, families are now larger than estimated. Because of immigration. But that's a different topic.
@@Eunegin23 What are you smoking lol? Extortionate house prices and rent means LESS household money...obviously. The 'average' UK worker is NOT "wealthy"...quite the opposite !!!
@@ChrisM541 I referred to a society, and the longterm effect, not individuals.
Unfortunately it's going downhill and we didn't even realize how privileged we were in the past.
And: being polite won't hurt....
@@Eunegin23 Anyone on an 'average' UK salary an not being able to afford a house due to those sickening prices is not something that encourages politeness. Quite the opposite. You might not be in that position but way too many are. Our society in the UK is most certainly not getting wealthier. Clearly.
@@johntbaxter (that's quite off-topic, unless you're trying to justify your own expensive house!)...and that is supposed to quell the fact successive governments DELIBERATELY ignored effective mortgage controls? The reason housing prices are so sickeningly extreme is because buyers have been given more(!!) money - thus(obviously) - sellers WILL raise prices.
The average(!!) "2.5 x salary multipliers at 21yrs payback" is long, long gone! Uncontrolled skyrocketing of those two simple variable caused all this damage.
I wonder if saying disposable income is going down therefore house prices will fall is true when you take into account the fact that ultra wealthy people can afford assets, and will keep people renting essentially by being the landlords
Many landlords are selling as quickly as they can because property is becoming a toxic asset. Inflation, and the necessarily higher interest rates to control it, are reducing affordability for both mortgages and renters alike. If people can't afford to rent, would-be landlords will not invest in housing. Cause and effect.
@@jakemorgan9275that's more true if they're buying property with debt.
Keep in mind the wealthy are resourced to have a higher debt/equity ratio from the get-go & can back that debt up against assets they already own, so their rates & costs are much more favourable than to the ordinary person or smalltime landlord.
@@jakemorgan9275 I doubt it, if I was a landlord id be charging rents of 500£ -1000£ a month on each of my properties, then take that income and put it in other assets. For them it doesn't make sense to sell. People always NEED a house so basically I can charge whatever I want and still get paid. If you wanna fix this problem then I suggest government intervention on putting a Maximum price which would lower rents however, that wont happen due to parliament having loads of people that own properties and etc.
@@jakemorgan9275
Interest rates are just a temporary issue. They change a lot of rules to make it harder and more expensive to have a flat to let: higher taxation, HMO regulation, minimum energy standards. And guess what - these are renters always paying the price. The only that can afford to meet the rules are those with pockets/businesses big enough to incorporate.
@@jakemorgan9275 It depends on how wealthy the investors are. Small scale landlords are definitely leaving the market, because they depend on borrowing. Investors who already have the money can still make a perfectly sound business in the current conditions. People still need a place to live, it's not a choice. Meanwhile, the split between the super wealthy and the rest of us is getting bigger every day.
The more of people's wages goes into the housing market the less is spent in the rest of the economy. This is why everywhere is dying . Well done banks and Politicians.
Labour in the UK, like Labor in Australia, will introduce something that sounds great to people who want somewhere to live, but won't reduce house prices, and will make property developers rich, that way everyone is happy until the people who aren't property developers realize it's a bad deal. You would be amazed how many properties politicians own, how much they receive in donations from property developers, and how they're all owned by the same people, that's why big companies donate to both sides of politics, why own one when you can own them all?
When Boris Johnson was Prime Minster the Conservative party received millions of pounds from the big developers. The party still gets healthy donations from them. Something like 20% of Conservative party MPs are landlords or, have financial interests in some aspect of renting out properties. Corruption has long been normalised.
Also the majority of voters in Australia are still either home owners or on the property ladder themselves - or their superannuation is tied up in 'safe' real estate investment funds.
Whether a reduction of on-paper wealth, similarly intense NIMBYism mirroring the UK but more a result of cowboy developers throwing up shoddy skyscrapers right over low density housing areas rather than mid-density redevelopment, or everyone tied to an immense mortgage with a terrifying pit of negative equity - there isn't a recipe for the political will to change this at the voter level until a majority of voters are themselves beholden to the private rental market.
A large majority of Millennials & Gen Z rent, but their participation rates are lower, their political outlook with a deliberately fostered despondency by the conservative & neoliberal dominated Aussie media, and they aren't a majority of the population yet.
Unfortunately we need the situation to continue worsening because conservatives tend to vote for personal interests over national interests, and property owners tend to heavily lean conservative.
That conspiracy stuff is junk UK politicians are often poor ! Property developers are NOT owned by the same people.. You are spreading disinformation...
@@InnuendoXP Gen Z are only interested in lip enhancement, bottom enhancement, tattoos, cannabis and iphones. They don't marry but have kids anway...
The Tories in the UK already did this with Help To Buy.
good the market should go back to being housing for homes not housing for investment, think it was the worse thing for the economy as people in rentals dont spend on carpets, paint, curtains, new kitchens because none of its yours. This economy of the rich owning many houses and the poor renting a house I would say is one of the major causes of the UK stagnation as the money goes into a small group who dont spend, if they want the economy to kick into action make home ownership easy! and low cost....BUILD and ignore the nimby rich trying to make house prices "go up for ever".
In this country is the case. But go to France and your rental agreement is 3-years minimum and you can redecorate as your heart pleases. Renting has to be regulated and normalised in this country, and landlords should not be able to dictate the cost of rent because their mortgage has gone up. That practice is illegal in France and even in Dubai.
Rental properties are essential for a modern, successful economy. I own many rental properties and every single one of my tenants are in a transient stage of life, either relocated for schooling or work. They either don’t want to but immediately but need a good rental property to live in until they are certain that that wish to settle long term. Or, they are professionals, in some cases surgeons or medical consultants who have started a new role in the area and only wish to buy once they are certain that their new employment is suitable. I have one tenant who moved to Canada to help set up a charity, it was a five year role. She returned to the UK, but realised that her previous London based living situation was no longer suitable. She rents a property from me until she has found an ideal house in the area and her daughter is settled in her new school. My point is that people like I describe, let’s call them temporally ‘transient’, do not want to buy immediately. Where would they be housed if there are no rental properties available? Must the government house them? Another tax burden? May I add that I have paid enormous amounts of SDLTax in acquiring my properties, plus the tax I paid over many years while building a business to earn the money to buy my properties. I am proud to be a landlord. My properties are very well maintained and I am proud to serve my tenants and work with them to ensure comfortable, happy accommodation until they are ready to buy. I’m sorry to respectfully disagree with you but you are wrong. The rental sector is essential!
@@sftmol never said to remove the rental sector, you have jumped to that conclusion. Has always been rentals but the issues lie with properties being used as an investment, lots of people abroad buying houses especially in london which drives up prices.
Air BNB which even tho regulated has increased? someone explain to me how that happened, most estates being built now are building mainly 5 bed detached houses. I work in alot of them and 80-90% of these 5 bed houses are elderly couples....which have decided to buy giant houses for a investment.
Short term rentals are actually good (short term as in 6 months to a year, this can give the person a return and its for the people that can afford it. But rentals now are forever homes for people as they cant afford anything else and now they cant afford that as landlords are putting up for there mortagages. You can't blame them if the mortagages go up they have to pay that but the system is wrong for putting people in those positions.
What we need is social houses built, people that are staying and working in a area can get affordable houses, rentals are short term and used how they should be for short stay for transition which also means they can be more expensive as that is there point.
I wonder why he felt the need to be so defensive, perhaps to alleviate the guilt he feels for contributing to the mess no matter how "selfless" his intentions.
Could you elaborate on 2:23 if the population continues to grow, therfore low birthrate is countered by continued immigration then would the UK continue to be one of the worst performers?
750k legal immigrants, with majority from india where PM has business interests.
Immigrants from Hongkong, Afghanistan, Ukraine
PM made majority of his earnings from properties, for which he voted lower tax.
If this doesn't prove democracy is a fraud what else is.
You forgot a load of illegals from Pakistan, Iran, Sudan, Somalia, Syria, Iraq, Albania, Kosovo etc
If your younger lot were educated you would not need others Google to see what uk sold .jaguar range rover,weetabix
Hamleys, tetley tea, The hard, harrows, selfridges, Heathrow, Gatwick and lots more . Sainburys 25% owned by Arabs , Nost companieshave foreign shares .7o % of brits work in full owned or part owned brit companies .
@@manjeetgill1 they sold jaguar range rover,hamleys,tetley, selfridges,harrods Gatwick and Heathrow airports ,half of HSBC. Bentley and rolls Royce cars, 68% of companies sold to keep uk afloat and they cry.
Do you have a source for that?
Thank you for your well balanced and informative videos.
Very interesting insights, thank you!
House prices wont crash. There’s so much money around from all the printing, it’s hard to see what will crash badly as there’s loads of cash to step in for price support.
cash buyers are a third of all purchases. Then you have Banks, hedgefunds
If house prices don’t crash then what you pay for houses with, will.
@@wattbenj yes money loses buying power, but those that benefit from QE i.e the super rich will keep buying assets. It's an unfair system that will continue until the the ruling class are dealt with. The future divide is assets vs no assets
@@parabob2359Yes true. I think in the short to medium term, the consumer will be completely tapped out. This is the only thing I can see happening that may bring the ruling class to ground. As they'll owe so much in interest and in council tax and the like, but their dividend streams may run dry.
Still several years to go though, I agree. Lots of liquidity in the system, though it's with the wrong people. I think there is likely one more crash with a round of QE to follow in this long term debt cycle. The crash after that one will be the big one that goes down in history.
@@wattbenj my worry since 2014 is that the movie Elysium is a serious prediction of the future.
Thank you for another great video and a compelling argument backed up with evidence. I think the government should get you to advise them. You could stand up next to them detailing the arguments and saying: "next slide please"
Great video and lots of information.
Greetings from Florida
Very informative. Thank you 👍
Renting should be normalised and regulated like it is in France, Germany or even Dubai, where landlords are not allowed to raise rents because their mortgages have gone up. I am not protected if I have a margin call on my margin loan when I invest in the stock market, so why should landlords be protected by being able to dictate the cost of rent? It’s insane.
Landlords own the property . You pay for the use of it .
@sarahann530 but it's not the renters' problem that the landlord bought the property on flexible rate morgage
Fyi all mortgages in France are fixed rate, which is why nobody is selling: people would have to trade a 2020 rate mortgage for a 2024 rate mortgage if they changed.
@UnipornFrumm If the cost of flour goes up the bakery charges the supermarket more for the bread and they then pass on that increase to you. That's life ,
Because you will lose your place to live when your landlord goes broke, obviously
It’s so infuriating that housing - an essential requirement for everyone - was ever turned into an investment. Did the selfish pricks never stop to think for one second about the impact it would have on the lives of future generations?! 🤬
Nope
You're just jealous of their good fortune. You just need to work hard like they did, and buy the council house you were given for 6 pence in the pound
@@JSmith19858🔔👈 end!
It won't impact them as they won't be born in the first place
Does investing in something reduce supply?
No.
Not the fault of investors
Everyone is struggling now with interest rates and inflation. Even the car market is collapsing at the moment after 14 years of conservative corruption and austerity measures while sticking with trickle-down economics and tax cuts for the rich things are going to get much worse.
Fortunately we are about to have a Labour government who are planning to tax the wealthy baby boomers who wrote the rules (easy mortgages when they were young and gold plated rpi linked pensions). A great opportunity for wealth redistribution is only months away!
Would have been the same with any government. 15 years of 0% and foreign money buying up houses has caused the problem. And the COVID madness melting everyone's brains.
@@EnergyUnithe problem in the uk is the sky high taxation on income, to the point that it doesn’t make sense to work harder because you will have to give over half of that income to the government to support those who don’t want to work. Labour will only make it worse, they will attack the middle class even more.
@@vonder7 Labour do not Attack. They set up the NHS and believe in fairness by nationalisation so that money doesn't just go into private pockets. Taxation from the wealthy to redistribute to the poor is the honourable thing to do. People were duped into voting Tory by the myth that all our money was going off to the EU - ignoring the massive benefits being in the EU gave us. Hopefully by being more aligned with the EU rather than attacking it we might be able to recover some lost status in the world.
@@vonder7 Look at other countries, will ya'? Almost every other country in Europe is doing better than the UK economically (Ukraine is the one exception) and many have higher taxes on income than the UK. The problem is lack of public investment. Austerity killed the economy, and types like you want more of it ...
The problem is more with the rental market. Rent valuations at the moment is so high, there are very few first time buyers in the market. This means the may people who can afford to be in the market are those who are wealthy enough to afford a buy-to-rent, or a second home... In turn, this means that the market doesnt have adjust as much for affordability for newer households.
Its a cycle of exploitation fueled by the rental market sucking any disposable income out of the market, and creating a culture of wealth for landlords
BTL landlords have fallen by hundreds of thousands in the last 10 years
The days of slaves are ending.
@@keithchapman1477 the days of slaves to government socialism is just beginning
The two are interwoven. Rental affordability fell off a cliff once Thatcher and her New Labour heirs encouraged buy to let and purchase of council housing. Which took affordable rental units off the market while no new housing was being built.
4:30 said housing yield is lower now than at any time in recent history. In many areas, and on average, a landlord who takes out a mortgage to rent out a property is going to be losing money each month. I understand emotions is one thing but the math aint mathing
The fact that there is already an excessive amount of demand awaiting its absorption, despite how everyone is frightened and calling the crash, is another reason why it is less likely to occur that way. 2008 saw no one, at least not the broad public, making this forecast, as I'll explain below. The ownership rate was noted to have peaked in 2004 in the other comment. Having previously peaked in the second quarter of 2020, we are currently at the median level. Between 2008 and 2012, it dropped by 3%, and by the second quarter of 2020, it had dropped from 68 to 65.
Real estate and stock investments may be good decisions, especially if you have a solid trading strategy that can see you through prosperous days.
You're not doing anything wrong; the problem is that you don't have the knowledge needed to succeed in a challenging market. Only highly qualified professionals who had to experience the 2008 financial crisis could hope to earn a high salary in these challenging conditions.
*@lilyhershey1* Recently, I've been considering the possibility of speaking with consultants. I need guidance because I'm an adult, but I'm not sure if their services would be all that helpful.
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Gertrude Margaret Quinto for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
I appreciate you sharing this. When I looked up the woman you named and read through her credentials, it was obvious that she was a complete professional. I just need her to respond to the message I wrote her.
Very nice and extensive analysis, but new developments depend on available land that can be used for housing. There is a tendency for the population of large cities to increase because of better jobs and services, while the population of smaller cities decreases. I cannot imagine any government scraping away Green Belts to build more houses. Therefore, I believe that prices in big cities will stagnate while mortgage affordability is low or increase due to high demand and low supply. Meanwhile, prices in small towns without significant services and businesses will likely fall. The solution to the problem are relevant regulatory policies that must be introduced at national level. This applies to a range of issues, such as spatial development, transport and sustainability. the idea of leveling up was great, but execution is what it is.
A fun fact. 800,000 houses are second homes. This means they are likely empty 95% of the time. Maybe a policy is needed in big cities to stop foreign investors from speculating on properties (not that any politician would ever stop his friends buying up London).
A house is still worth one house. The pound is now worth less than 1p.
👏
I couldn't make it any more simple.
The same is with a burger, I recommend checking the Big Mac index - it's unbelievable what inflation does to working people and explains exactly why 30-40 years ago you could support a family with just one income.
But that one house is worth a hell of a lot more than no house.
@@franekspeak953 people lived more frugally. 1 car per household, no mobiles, no internet, no holidays abroad etc
@@MrJeffHead no Netflix but lots of crumpet that was not overweight.
@@MrJeffHead A house in 1960 cost 4 times an average salary. Now it's more like 8.5 times. That is a massive difference in affordability. And then all these things (cell phones for everybody in the family, Internet etc.) come on top of that, because you literally can't live a normal life without them. There is plenty of wealth. It just ends up on fewer and fewer hands. That's the real issue here.
Great vid, will be interested to see the effects of this on over leveraged banks and housing construction companies. They all rely on increasing property prices.
Housing should not be an investment (like stocks and shares), but a public amenity. Sure having your own house is an investment in the sense that it improves your well being. Increasing property prices only benefits speculators and locks an ever increasing portion of the country's wealth into a non-productive use. Just imagine how much better off we could be as a country if housing was far cheaper for everyone.
Absolutely. And imagine if all the capital that had been sunk into economically inactive property had been invested in businesses
Rental properties are essential for a modern, successful economy. I own many rental properties and every single one of my tenants are in a transient stage of life. Either relocated for schooling or work. They either don’t want to but immediately but need a good rental property to live in until they are certain that that wish to settle long term. Or, they are professionals, in some cases surgeons or medical consultants who have started a new role in the area and only wish to buy once they are certain that their new employment is suitable. I have one tenant who moved to Canada to help set up a charity, it was a five year role. She returned to the UK, but realised that her previous London based living situation was no longer suitable. She rents a property from me until she has found an ideal house in the area and her daughter is settled in her new school. My point is that people like I describe, let’s call them temporally ‘transient’, do not want to buy immediately. Where would they be housed if there are no rental properties available? Must the government house them? Another tax burden? May I add that I have paid enormous amounts of SDLTax in acquiring my properties, plus the tax I paid over many years while building a business to earn the money to buy my properties. I am proud to be a landlord. My properties are very well maintained and I am proud to serve my tenants and work with them to ensure comfortable, happy accommodation until they are ready to buy. I’m sorry to respectfully disagree with you but you are wrong. The rental sector is essential!
@@sftmolI do agree that there are responsible landlords. I also think there should be a space for landlords to exist. Yet a significant proportion of the housing supply should be owned by local governments that rent them at near cost amounts. That would mean your properties will compete with the state, dragging prices of rents down. This works in many European countries and cities, the best case example in Vienna, leading to far more prosperous and dynamic economies.
I absolutely agree, I think this 'investor' money could be spent elsewhere such as our domestic businesses which would help boost the economy while also freeing up housing space for the younger generation which will further boost economic growth and productivity since they have their basic necessities covered.
Its a funny thing how every home owners thinks of there home as an investment its a british thing which will not change
There is a reason that politicians have property portfolios, and tax on property profit is super low.
By increasing demand (750k legal immigrants in 2023) and reducing supply, politicians can increase property prices and hence massive profits.
Sounds about right.
Shame the author the video doesn’t even mention reducing immigration as something that could help. Blame the nimbys for not wanting to concrete over the beautiful countryside is the common best partial solution i see. But you can just, you know, reduce the demand side by not, oh i dont know, importing nearly a million people per year legally and giving social housing to millions of illegals. The author must be shocked to think of this solution
I don't think though it's only politicians that have property portfolios - sadly imv, it does make them less likely to do anything radical.
Irresponsibly collapsing your economy by blocking legal immigration that's absolutely required to pay for the welfare state means adding more to your portfolio of problems, not solving housing. The answer is simple. Encourage legal migrants to stay temporarily and build them purpose built housing to ease pressure on the private housing market.
It’s not super low - it’s 28 percent. The problem is that tax on labour is even higher.
We live in a market economy, so supply and demand dictate prices.
Our population is increasing at a much greater rate than we build houses, so demand for existing housing is high, driving up prices.
The available land is diminishing, so the supply of that is low and getting smaller, while the demand for housing is rising. This means land prices will increase, and thus the price of a new build will increase even more.
The only people who will be able to buy a house will be the big real-estate firms, so everyone will be stuck renting. "you will own nothing and most likely wont be happy"
The bubble isnt over. It has barely begun. You will have to be a multi-millionaire to buy a hamster cage.
A plot of land near me sold for £70,000. And that`s in Lincolnshire. I bought mine which is the same size for £28,000 in 1996. And mine had a house built on it already. It`s a joke mate for the younger people.
@@damianbutterworth2434 it’s quite cheap to be honest, I was looking for a piece of land around London and found only one 2000 sq f for over 600k pounds 🙂 but even in my home country Poland a piece of land to build a house on is about 100k gbp or more. Property prices went up by a staggering 28 percent YoY. It’s horrible now and will only get worse for our kids everywhere on this planet.
@@vonder7 Yak sure mash. I don`t know how to spell hello in Polish :) . Most of my mates at work are Polish in Lincolnshire. Your a great asset to the UK. Work hard. Clean houses and gardens. I respect Polish more than any other country. You should look at prices up here and perhaps travel to London on the train if you can. :)
@@damianbutterworth2434 thank you for the kind words. You are right the only place in the uk where it’s still somehow affordable is the north and I was thinking about that especially that I work from home. To buy a detached house in London similar to the one I grew up in I would have to have a salary of 200-300k gbp which is insane. I even viewed a few properties around Manchester but in nicer areas in the south of the city or in Cheshire it wasn’t cheap, around 600k. A lot of Poles went back home in the recent years and pretty much no one is coming now after Brexit, the ones still left are those who bought properties, have kids etc. I feel bad for the British people who are young now or didn’t buy when it was cheaper. On the flip side I know people in ordinary professions who bought their properties around 2007 for 250k and their properties are now worth 1M so they were lucky and become de facto millionaires. Such a crazy market these days. It’s also a generational thing.
We live in a regulated market economy. It’s no longer just supply and demand.
'Buy to Let' was introduced by Gordon Brown and was the death knell for first time buyers and distorted the market. If one imagines the market as a pyramid there has to be movement upwards as buyers upgrade, and movement downwards as those at the top down size. BTL suppresses this movement by limiting first time buyers.
The problem is not BTL, in virtually every country you can buy and let a property on a mortgage. The problem is the mass migration to this tiny overpopulated island and the laws that make it impossible to buy some land and build your own house . Even in London there are hundreds of golf courses, forests etc and not enough land.
@ michaelwilliams3232 In a lot of cities and towns all over the world, ‘Buy to Let’ is now ‘Buy or Evict to AirBnB’. Housing is being taken out of the town’s population housing market and transferred into the holiday letting market, creating massive housing shortages for the local permanent population, and turning smaller villages into winter ghost towns.
I live in a beautiful town in the West Country and many small, old houses are being bought by wealthy Londoners to become AirBnB holiday lettings. There are a few streets that are all holiday lets. The worry is that rental prices for local residents will sour to match the £500 a week a holiday letting can make, or we’ll be forced out of the town due to a lack of permanent housing for the town’s population.
AirBnB investors are the elephant in the room that everyone is ignoring right now. But the future is bleak for towns and villages in areas of beauty.
@@vonder7 The problem is the capital that the post war generation have. Those in their mid 50s got free education, cheap house prices and their wages were not hit as hard by inflation (although they had high interest rates). A house was around 3.5x salary. Now house prices are over 10x salary, degress cost £9k a year and wages have stagnated and your money is worth less due to QE from the central bank.
Interest rates give a return of 4-5% at the moment but housing and assets outstrip that by a huge margin, so people with capitalwill buy assets rather than allowing thewir money to be devalued sitting in a bank. BTL should be limited so that no one can own more than two houses
@@silvafox7719 yeah let’s only allow to have one pair of underwear as well Mr Lenin.
It started under the thatcher govt and inherited by labour under Blair and continued until this day
Property prices do not rise, our 'money' fiat currency is ALWAYS devaluing making 'stuff' look and seem more expensive, INFLATION = PRINTING OF MORE CURRENCY or DEBT...that is what makes house values look like they are rising.
I have worked in this market as an investor all my life and it is clear that you do not 'make money' from inflation because ALL commodities and services 'inflate' which is the way the bankers 'Take' our value from us...🤔🤔🤔
Very interesting thoughts, although I do expect house prices to accelerate if interest rates move down materially because a lot of wealthy people have money parked in fixed rate savings
where I live in cambridgeshire, the price of a 3 bed terrace house is £200,000 so a 10%deposit of £20000 gives a mortgage of £180,000 at 5.25% and interest payments of £787 per month, but the rent for a similar property is £1000 per month, so even if house prices fall in the short term you are financially better off buying, rents always go up each year, but you can fix your mortgage rate
787 is just the interests, you also have to pay the capital so it s’more like 1200. But I agree 100 percent. Unfortunately it’s always better and cheaper to buy than rent.
I think Vienna is the only outlier - we pay 655€ for 70 m2 (renting). Much cheaper than buying.
@@vonder7just get a 35 year mortgage and it will be 900
@@SapereAude1490 I think I Vienna you have controlled rents because it terms of buying it’s one of the most expensive European capitals
@@vonder7 Oh yes, rent controls and social housing. Goes back a century when social democrats decided to fix housing.
House prices are likely to remain in the doldrums for some time in the UK. However, a fall in the pound for whatever reason may attract more foreign investors. What a calamity that would be.
Regarding your graph of 'Excess Housing Costs' at 4:05. I think 'Australia' must actually be 'Austria'. The figure for Australia would be similar to New Zealand, not France.
People been saying thatvfor 70 years now.
Nooo the housemarket can't go on like this... Come again in 25 years and eat your words.
We also have an archaic lease system for flats which is why they dont work in the uk but they do everywhere else. Fortunately the incoming Labour government plan to fix this.
Labour will only increase the already sky high taxation, that’s all they do.
@@vonder7 only for the rich. Remember it was Labour who helped prevent mass evictions (as happened in the US) in 2008 when Northern Rock collapsed. They have always genuinely helped the traditional Northern Working Towns rather than the greedy south east commuter belts.
@@EnergyUni how do you define rich? Because I earn over 100k and will probably be defined as “rich” while in reality I can barley afford a 2 bed flat. Yet I’m being taxed almost 50 percent, plus alll the council taxes, road taxes and so on. I don’t have any wealth Yet for some I’m the rich who needs to be taxed heavily. I know people who earn 30k but own a 1M plus properties and are 10 times more wealthy than I am. Yet I will be taxed heavily just trying to provide a better future for my child. Ridicolous.
@@vonder7 over 100k - stop moaning- that's a hell of a lot more than 98%+ of the population. Check for yourself on ONS. People ALWAYS think they are poorer than the next man because they look only at the people who earn 3ven more.
@@EnergyUni haha yes I knew that - I’m the rich to be taxed. I studied hard I worked hard and I live in London. 100k is only 5500 gbp, the flat itself is 2500 on a 30 years mortgage. If I was in another country I would own a nice detached property. I will never be able to afford that in the uk. Yes eat the rich like me, 100k doesn’t go far in London. And yes I know there are poorer people. But many of them own properties and have substantial wealth. It’s not the middle class or 100l earners that need to be heavily taxed. It’s those with 10M plus in wealth. Those Rishi Sunaks who have 700M in wealth. Not someone who earns 5500 pounds per month through hard work and spend half of it on mediocre accommodation. Uk is doomed with this leftist thought that we need to tax and punish everyone and I will never vote labour.
9:38 interest rates returning to the mean around 8-10% to counter the period of low rates over the last decade.
Excellent summary.
When you look back around 100 years or so, it would have been completely common for middle and upper-middle class people to rent their homes.
It was also common for people to die in poverty at the age of 60
@@fakename45 At the age of 40.
Really, unless you have money you've had it in the UK.
It remains perfectly normal in countries like Germany (45% of renters) where renters are protected against arbitrary rises and where you don't have politicians who decide overnight they don't like social housing and would prefer it to be privatised.
I hope the curry was delicious. Thanks again for all you do.
I love how he says 'but'... 🤣
Present interest rates aren't high, they are normal. We've just had years of abnormally low rates that people have come to see as normal because they've lasted a while.
The one advantage of buying BTL'S compared to bonds is you get lent 75% LTV, you don't get that with bonds etc. Banks still see housing worth lending against. It's a long term game though.
Hi
I just fixed for 5 years at 4.42 %, I’m pretty happy with that rate.
These are normal rates now, why are people waiting for rates to drop.
I believe they won’t ever drop to 2-3% ever again.
Fully agree, we will never see rates of less than 2% again as 'they' want you to own nothing and rent forever. I can forsee mortgages becoming a thing of the past eventually for the upcoming generations if we allow this to happen
Oh they will drop very low again, though nobody knows when and for all the wrong reasons:
-heavily indebted economies like the UK, USA and France can't cope with the higher costs of debt servicing that come with higher interest rates. So their central banks will go back to lower interest rates, try to inflate away their debts or a combination of both
-majority of people are simply not earning enough to consume and prop up the economy, hence the only way to resolve that is cheap credit and loans via low interest rates
Higher interest rates are the ONLY way to force sellers to lower house prices, simply because fewer and fewer buyers could afford their sickening prices. Remember, the government allowed this to happen (high salary multipliers + 35+ year payback lengths). It really is that simple. Initial pain, yes, but it's the only way.
Very interesting videos. Just a slight improvement suggestion - the charts and graphs can be shown a bit longer, while you talk in the background.
Recommend pausing it.
It helps with view time if you rewind , helps the algorithm
Ok good info , so what is good to invest in ? Easy to be negative , what's the counter investment ?
Property prices are STILL rising, unfortunately.
Isnt 18m tall enough? Do we realy need tower blocks ?
It's about how house prices compare to other asset prices as time goes on that will dictate the percentage of house ownership- and house price/cpi can show just how poor of a measure cpi really is, and how easily manipulatable
Average house prices should/must ALWAYS be compared to the average UK salary. When you do that, and look back over the last 50 years, your jaw will drop in shock. THAT is today's issue - housing and rentals are 100% destroyed.
Very interesting video! Could you leave the graphs on a little longer though please? Yes i know i can pause, lol
It's funny it started with immigration imports in the 1950s, and immigration has increased dramatically. The dramatic rise after Blair opened the flood gates to eastern Europeans. UK corporate investors can see a steady inflow of tenants via mass immigration.
Housing will always be a great long term (10 year) asset, its a great hedge against currency devaluation. House prices are dropping and will likely drop for the next 18 months.
No sh#t Sherlock ;)
excellent, but please expand your analysis world wide, I'm sure you have the knowledge
Property prices won’t double with such speed, but they’re still likely to increase.
They will in ur head if you a asleep.
Yes, they might increase over time. But if they do so under the inflation rate it is still a decrease in real terms.
Are you Gypsy Rose Lee ?
Well at least the British public got the opportunity to buy something before they opened the floodgates to foreign buyers.
Spot on mate.
It wasn't really "the public", it was a pretty narrow section of Thatcher's cronies who bought up most of the former social housing stock. Only a tiny amount of the public ever benefitted in any way from privatisation of housing stock.
They'll have you blaming vulnerable immigrants families before you dare to ever blame your corrupt government and your own social and industrial elites.
Finally someone who understands the mechanics of the UK housing market (too much of that young trader doing the rounds atm).
I hadn't considered the average household size before. In the future there will also be less properties passed down generations, given lower birth rates.
If the QE experiment is over for the fed (i suspect it is) That means it is also for the BOE and ECB. Don't count on rates below 2% again in our lifetimes folks!
I'm 33. My parents bought their house in 1994 for 120k. It's now roughly 800k. I finally landed a good job with prospects in a field I love. I earn 37k a year now. I'm in a position to save and I asked my parents if they would support me with a deposit. They declined citing they hadn't planned on giving me any help for a deposit or house. So now I'm renting. Owning my own home whilst they are alive won't happen. Instead, I rent in a shared house - I'm happy for now.
our economy is such a failure, 33 and you don't have a house, How is this possible? How did it get this bad?
Fair enough, no grandchildren for them either.
@@Maksimszz Late stage Capitalism. Half the property is owned by less than 2% of people. We were born too late. Now all the property, land and assets have already been hoovered up by the rich elite. Only a peaceful political change (Voting) or a violent rebellion can now change this status quo. The problem is, the rich elite have made peaceful change almost impossible buy buying the politicians of both major parties.
They will cave , it's impossible to get a nice detached house without help
Make sure you tell them that you look forward to the day they've both kicked the bucket and in the meantime insist on vetting the will.
High interest rates are a temporary phenomenon. Also what happens if there is a deflationary bust - a temporary drawdown/crash then back up again but from a lower place for UK housing?
0% in not normal, 3.5 to 7 are historically normal
Interest rates are not high and hopefully not temporary either. You must be under 40 years old.
the person could equally tell you, "you must be very old". Because what was the debt to GDP ratio in the years you are referring to? And that's the thing: there is so much government debt in places like the US and the UK that governments have a big stake in pressuring central banks to cut interest rates: they need it to keep the cost of servicing debt low. Plus there is the mantra of "cutting interest rates is needed" to meet the obsession with growth.
This is not the 1970s anymore, you folks need to wake up.
@@pritapp788 seems like you're the one that needs to wake up. Rates being cut again will only make everything worse.
I don’t believe this asset prices will continue to increase.
dont forget that changes, under labour, to the state pension caused a drive for pensioners to become landlords as a means of securing their retirement which consequently gobble up supply of houses and forced younger generations to become renters
You need to remember that if a pensioner downsizes or rents out their home, they still need to find another, cheaper property, and the way rents are, they'll likely be in a worse situation. Is this what you are talking about?
They should charge people with multiple homes a much larger tax increase, and reduce rent for houses when the mortgage is already paid off.
There will be riots in the streets if nothing drastic is done.
From September I will be living with my parents and will be able to save minimum £15k per year. With existing savings I could afford a 10% deposit on a £250k house within 1 year. My question is, should I hold off buying (as I am happy to continue living with my parents for a few years). Is it better to wait 3 years and then buy with a big deposit of e.g. £50k?
If you want your own property the right time to buy is always now. My biggest regret in life is not buying a home when I could afford one, now I can't afford one, and I worry about where I can afford to rent when I retire. If I owned a house I wouldn't be that concerned.
Wait as long as you can stand to live with your parents.
Make sure to INVEST, money in a bank is losing money. Look at the s&p500 index fund.
@@ridethelakes tell that to people who bought it in 2022. Your house deposit needs to be safe, 5% is just fine for it. Split it amongst several banks and maybe a bit of gold.
House prices will go up due to the declining pound’s purchasing power - not because of increase in value of house.
Not really. A lower pound will mean a lower economy and job losses...
Can you expand on what you mean at 2:00 where you say we’ve reached a limit in what we can build? Fundamental not true and a more result of a failing planning system and short term policy making against building to buy nimby votes
Ohh to be born back In the 50/60’s when a household with a normal family could afford to have one person working. And provide for his/hers family
What went wrong? WHY were mortgage salary multipliers and payback lengths (the only 2 variables that matter) allowed, by successive governments, to get so sickeningly out of control...more money being lent out means higher and higher house prices. Sellers will ALWAYS take advantage!
I can’t remember who coined the phrase “homes are for nesting not investing” but it always rang true in my mind, but of course those who steer the greed culture won’t agree but it really is time for change, it doesn’t have to be this way….
I dont think it will crash anytime soon, i think it may actually increase as the interest rate decreases over the next few months.
There are some good points in this video, and obviously the UK population and therefore the demand in the long term will be a big factor in house prices.
However you've missed the ever increasing regulations required for new build houses and the impact that has on house prices. Every newly built house in the UK has to conform to building regulations, which is ever changing and includes things like insulation, sound proofing, sustainable drainage, fire protection etc. These things have been introduced slowly over decades and have impacted the cost to develop the property and therefore its value.
This WILL inevitably increase houses prices, because if it doesn't, developers won't build and the housing market will stall until the demand can catch up and increase house prices again.
The regulations is there to prevent buying a house that will fall apart.
The boom came between 1997 and 2007 when house prices quadrupled under Brown. House prices compared to wages were at a post war low in 1997.
But the question is- why?
Try 70s
@@keithchapman1477 Inflation increased 3.5 times in the 70s, house prices certainly were not up that much in real terms ( only sightly over wages) nothing like Gordon Brown's quadrupling against the backdrop of low inflation. Indeed the twin post war lows on wage multiples were 1985 and 1997. If it were the case that houses prices ran amok during the 70s it is strange we had a post war low by 1985.
I'm afraid Brown destroyed the UK Economy and we have had to have artificial props ever since under his boom.
I'm sorry to say but the guy that runs this channel will never admit when the damage was done. In 1997 houses were cheap and there was no intergenerational unfairness, I bought a house in 96 for 77k and I sold in 06 for 300k. There lies the problem, Gordon Brown's madness. You cannot fight undisputed 100% correct historical facts. Clearly the guy that runs this channel is too young to remember just how good the Market was in the late 90s for young buyers.
The problem with the charts shown on this channel is they are not wage adjusted. A wage adjusted house price index would show a peak in 2007 and post war troughs in 1985 and 1997.
@stewartfearn3473 @@keithchapman1477 You're both wrong. The graph of real house prices is featured 15 seconds into the video. The postwar low was clearly in the mid to late 1950s.
There’s nothing ‘normal’ about near 0% interest rates - that was an emergency measure, which was irresponsibly kept in place long after the emergency was over …
There will never be a true fall in house price simply because we have a shortage. The boom will continue just in a slower way.
Gary Stevenson says that house prices are about to explode. I know who I believe
3:13 Poland's 1,5 is shorter than Germany and Russia.
We're on the verge of a super boom in house prices and rental costs. Huge demand being pumped into the country every month, with limited supply side response. Econ 101.
We just had a super boom in house prices. The peak was about 2 years ago.
@@jasonbaxter3658 Yeah, in 10 years time you’ll marvel at how cheap prices were today
I have been saying this to my friends and family for months now. I have two other factors to put into this equation.
1. Baby boomers. They as a population group, have in general generated thier wealth from the rise in housing market and they live in 3-4 bedroom houses for only 2 people in thier retirement because of the status a home gives you. They were all born together and will all die together ( there will then be an influx of homes back into the market)
2. Changing attitudes of our young. Home ownership became a cult in the 1980's, we are one of the only populations who believe home ownership is necessary. Also, when I first purchased a property, my mortgage repayments were significantly lower than renting. This for the first time, is no longer true. It is about the same or less to rent, without needing huge deposits or needing to maintain the property. This is driving the attitudes of the young, questioning why they need to be tied down to one set of bricks and mortar....
The main thing to consider is,if and when you can get on the property ladder, do it!! Because you will always need a home and there is no alternative to having your own house and stability, and with a mortgage there is an end in sight...renting has no end!
It's not stability if people take on excessive debt in the process.
Compare house prices to gold over a 100 year period and you will see that house prices haven’t risen at. The truth is that paper money aka government fiat currency has fallen and has no value
Very unlikely we will see falling migration/population as climate change and regional conflicts will attract more people to UK & Europe. I predict house prices will continue to rise but at a slower pace.
This can all go in the bin. UK will soon have localised markets - and not one housing market. e.g - barn conversions in Devon worth more, but suburbs with crime prices falling.
We need to increase supply by building tower blocks everywhere, until the whole of the UK looks like ... a place that has been covered with tower blocks.
You mean Eastern Europe?
@@zuzanazuscinova5209 Well, to begin with I wrote Hong Kong, but You Know Who Tube deleted my comment twice. I guess Eastern Europe would also fit ...
@@zuzanazuscinova5209 Eastern Europe has the highest property ownership in the whole world thanks to this. (80-98 percent are home owners) unlike in the uk where 40 percent of population rent rooms in overpopulated shared households spending half of their salary on this. And to be fair those kind of tower blocks flat are not much worse than 19 century terraced houses in the uk. They have far better isolation and energy efficiency. It’s just not sustainable for every one to live in a house, especially in the most densely populated country in Europe - England.
@@vonder7 I have a 2 acre garden and a triple garage... Effort and brains got me it.
@@SunofYork in central london. And your name is Charles.
Jesus look at that net migration jump in 2021!
One of the factors is the economy is toast. When businesses are no longer growing its a better option to become rent seeking.
"IF UK ever gets and Indian PM then it is doomed." Benjamin Disraeli 1899
And where exactly did you get his quote from? Cite your sources please.
I've long believed that housing supply is deliberately restricted by the powers that be because it's integrally linked with the money/debt creation process through mortgage lending.
Affordable housing for everyone would effectively kill this golden goose and crucial economic lever for government.
A degree of contrived permanent scarcity helps to keep prices rising, people borrowing and the economy lubricated with a constant supply of new money.
The simplistic 'too many people, not enough houses' supply and demand theory is a convenient if plausible lie.
Be interesting to see what the new non-dom and 10-year expat tax rules do in 2025. Both of those groups should be making sure to sell out before April 2025.
Thank fk!
I find it fascinating that in real terms house prices haven't risen in 22 years - people are so blind to this, and only look at nominal - got all these BTL landlords who part own a property with HMRC now that they don't realise a globally diverse 60:40 stock/bond portfolio within tax efficient wrappers has absolutely sh@t on. Plus Vanguard have never called a client at 11pm on a Sunday night to report no hot water, that if not fixed by tomorrow will result in no rent being paid
Interest rates are back to there long term average, the bond market is the new game in town, please don't forget government spending is at its limit, should which ever party gets in the bond market is watching!!!!!
Housing ought never to have been an exciting investment prospect.
I do however expect pension companies to mop up excess supply should that situation ever arise.
Any UK government could have put a freeze on house prices to control growth, but they didn't. Its all part of incestuous economy and brings in taxes which have been lost in other areas, ie cigarette smoking. Increase in stamp duty through rising prices help to make up the deficit. Snatching homes from the elderly to cover health costs for an aging population is another reason no freeze was forthcoming.
Yes! Finally someone gets it. I have seen firsthand an elderly relative having to sell their home to find their care. So essentially in this country we stress ourselves our whole working lives to pay for a house and then get it taken away from us. I’ve vowed never to let that happen to me. I’m moving to Spain where you aren’t expected to sell your home
Today's surge in ultra long mortgages is fast becoming the norm and to the extent, that payback is more and more extending well into retirement.
The cause of this is a simple catch22 - sickeningly high house prices, still rising, because there is more and more money handed out in those mortgages. Why? because in order to meet those insane asking prices lenders have gladly...
1) Significantly increased mortgage salary multipliers, and...
2) Significantly increased payback terms
No longer does 21 years at 2.5 x your salary give you enough money to buy a house.
--> THIS IS EXACTLY WHY the UK housing and rental market is COMPLETELY destroyed !!!
--> The ONLY way to reduce house prices is to increase interest rates...once you make these ultra high mortgages unaffordable to the majority, you can rest assure that the majority of sellers will reduce prices. Unfortunately, the BOE won't do this effectively, and certainly not for a long enough time as to be effective. What to do ???
Thatcher should have ensured for every council house which was sold off, another 1.25 were built in its place.
Who is buying in London?
High earners and rich people thats it...everyone else is just passing by....
this situation is untenable and will result in horrific circumstances in the coming decade.
Millennials and young Genx are always the luckiest ❤️
Interest rates are irrelevant since they will drop to 0 within the next 2 years... those will not affect the Housing Market at all...
Problem is you can't buy property expecting to make profits it is somewhere to live the Old days are long gone and not coming back
How about stopping new builds being sold to billionaires around the world.
A very timely study given the electoral catastrophe the Conservatives just received.
Sunak is relying on the economy to give the Tories a chance of doing better during the general election.
The UK economy is very sensitive to house price appreciation.
I see video titles speculating on the collapse UK house prices but this is doubtful given the scale of immigration into the country since the turn of the century.
The mention of the resistance to vertical housing development is telling.
The space around Wembley stadium is dominated by medium to high rise apartment blocks, which are very popular with the large numbers of Hong Kong Chinese who are arriving from the Far East.
Living not so far away in suburbia it is easy to see a possible solution to our ills and that is the re-imagining of the 1920s/30s town planning that created the urban sprawl.
The houses built are wasteful of space with huge back gardens and front gardens now given over to car ports in addition to, in many instances, garages.
Sadly, our country has a lot of ills of which this one is the most intractable.
Many people have poured money in to housing to finance their old age. It is a very poor substitute to industry and works simply to make a few well off.
Will there be a plan by either Labour or Conservatives?
No. We are not good at planning and it is a political hot potato therefore we will do what we always do, fudge it and hope something turns up.
In this instance the timely arrival of Hong Kong Chinese may well save the UK from itself.
That "Years Required to Save for a Deposit" chart at 05'20" says it all really.....the market is totally Fd; no new entrants + no incentive to sell for incumbents = stagnation. It'll take decades for the Blair housing bubble to deflate relatively. UK is now Japan.
‘The Bank of Mum and Dad’ comes up way too often in finance videos. I’d think many Mum’s and Dad’s aren’t in a position to be banks these days.
34% of first time buyers had family money to help them buy their property in 2017. In 2023, that figure was 37%. Family money includes cash gifts from parents, but also grandparents and inheritances.
And tough luck for people like me who don’t have wealthy family to gift me money to get me on the property ladder. Saving for a deposit is now impossible, unless I eat ice cubes for every dinner every night, and never go outside when I’m not at work - and do this for a few decades.
will only be over when the operation time of the fiat money printing machine is in line with creation of wealth and populatuon growth
If something can’t continue….it won’t.
The tax code somehow incentives this shite.
I sold before covid and now ready to buy, I cannot afford anywhere near what i could before, I've got a healthy deposit as well. What are people going to do when they come to the end of there mortgages. Fecked it what.
The cost of lad for building will not fall but only go up ??on top of that if you see the cost of matrials to build houses they are not falling anytime fast Inflation is a property investors friend your wrong or have i missed something
I think you are correct, this overpopulated island has massive pent up demand and renting is too insecure. It's just a matter of time until it booms again.
@@ridethelakes it will Boom inflation is a property investors best friend just sit tight and watch it happen