Cuunjieng: Slowdown in BPO employment being projected in 2024 | ANC
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- Опубликовано: 5 сен 2024
- Market Edge: For the year's first Stevienomics, Michelle Ong talks to global investment banker Stephen Cuunjieng for his 2024 economic outlook.
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Many thanks for inviting me
the problem with focusing on food security is that innately, our country is not built for agriculture geographically. 3 things:
1. we're the typhoon capital of the world. imagine telling your investors that yearly, they would have a 4.7% annual built in loss because of typhoons. and yet that's what Stevie is advocating for here. an agri subsidy to a sector that has an annual loss of 4.7%. and that's the average. the losses could be as high as 23 percent!
2. we lack a natural irrigation source. the reason Thailand and Vietnam have been able to outpace us in agricultural development is because they literally have free irrigation via the Mekong river. imagine ceteris paribus with only this as the difference, they still come out ahead. for this alone, we will never produce any agri product that can be cheaper than what they can produce. our irrigation costs alone make our products more expensive. (and that's discounting all the other variables adding to our production costs).
3. Our country's landmass is broken up by mountainous terrains and rolling hills. Ideal agricultural land is flat plains. A continuous unbroken landmass is the best for agriculture. right now, our land use is competing between agriculture and real estate, and agriculture is losing. it's a cliche that farms are being converted into subdivisions, but there's no way around this. we just don't have enough land mass to provide for both.
These 3 things are structural issues we cannot fix. Unless we can move the country west of Thailand so we're not facing the brunt of typhoons anymore, or if we can somehow create a national river passing through our bread baskets, or if we can flatten the entire Philippines to remove our mountainous terrains, these things are innate to our country we cannot change no matter how much wishful thinking we make.
if we're going to subsidize agri, i would rather it be spent all on marine agri. fish don't die even if typhoons pass.
the government should brace for rising unemployment now. don't wait for the end of the year when those jobs phased out.