Was this week's hot CPI report the last nail in the bull market's coffin? What can we learn from recent market signals related to price action and the VIX?
In summary: [a] Bull market intact, the age of the bulls 😊 [b] Don’t spend time predicting the next great crash, as fear will get hold of you. [c] Market volatility will increase leading to pullbacks (4% to 10%) providing buying opportunities. [d] 20% bear market happens once every 3.5 years. Likewise, 15% correction happens once every 2 years.
Thank you for the over the top video packed with honest and informative data. I hope everyone understands the sacrifice and time you must put in to provide us with this free information. I am very appreciative of everything you do for us.
why? because it confirms your bias? what actual conclusions can you draw? none of this is investment advice. its a bunch of charts where the presenter chooses the symbols that he wants to show you to prove his bias....to sell you his service.
@@brentlorrilliere6057 So what? Here on RUclips, Chris is neither a fundamental analyst, nor a financial advisor. He always makes that absolutely clear in his videos! But that doesn't mean his videos have no value from a technical point of view. They sure do! If timing the market is not your cup of tea, there's plenty of other youtubers you can follow. Nobody is forcing you to watch Chris' videos!
My Saturday morning coffee and CC. Charting above my technical levels but you guys put all the work in for viewers to digest. The AVWAP chart on the small caps looks like the 'canary in the coal mine' to me. If that trend breaks below those tight lines of uber strong support on the IWM, "look out below"...163.72 could be retested, a -17% move, but not likely...election year and there still exists a 100% probability the FEDs cut rates at least once in 2024?
Chris, this is a good assessment of the present situation but my model shows the market to be more vulnerable. I'm seeing significant weakness in IWM and the SPY is definitely not showing the same strength of trend that it was a few weeks ago. As a result I've pulled about 6-8% more of my portfolio from the market and into cash, and some into commodities. I'm still mostly in the SPY, QQQ and related stocks but pulled back a bit. I still expect new highs and many of them in the coming months and years but for the middle term I'm seeing vulnerability.
@@afonsodeportugal I went long gold and silver about a month ago but missed the move in oil. I'm considering moving into XLE and DBC. I know a lot of people go into gold miners but it's not something I'm familiar enough with.
Great video this weekend. I believe his bullish thesis is correct. It will be an opportunity despite popular belief when real dip happens. The fear will be so amplified we will oversell things on the worst news likely geopolitical event. And people will be surprised how big the bounce will be
Awesome analysis as usual and thank you for your selfless sharing! Curious if you could add the number of days the yield curve was inverted in relation to the corresponding corrections and their depth? It would be very interesting to see how they match up to the blue, orange, and yellow boxes. If my info is correct we are in the second longest inverted period in market history approaching 500 days which would eclipse the 1929 period.
DEVILS ADVOCATE: on the XLE vs XLK chart, If the October 2023 lower high is breached and we push back up to the October 2022 peak and breach that, then the whole 2023 correction could simply be a correction in a longer term trend DOWN that began in October 2020
Pullbacks are normal.....but when they morph into bear market is the unknown event that you might not see until you've already had significant drawdowns. Therein lies the risk of investing.....
Is it just me? Or does anyone else step back and look at many of those charts? Zoom out and they look like they're building giant head and shoulders....so, we spike for a few weeks? Then fall to the neckline end of 24 maybe or early ish 25? I know we don't have a time machine but objective historical analysis of global geo military/political eras of conflict that mirrors today's environment and a giant H&S starts to make some good sense. Go up hard some more first (from now) then fall back as greater picture effects are felt by the economy and markets and then after a while another hard to dumpster fire lows for everyone. If ever calling tops and bottoms and making solid long term investment considerations mattered more than the coming trip we're going on
i say you it can by quiqly turn down in short time , now it is happens and later yes we go up again , but when ? nobody know , mayby one year or 2 , yes you buy future earnings for over 3 years ,
Overheating is not the problem. Crashing to a crawl is the problem. Credit card defaults at all time highs, other bad debt of all types to accumulate quickly.
@@marekan1410 i found one of the slides, yes not at all highs at all you are right on that, but they increasing. credit card balances at all time highs, defaults increasing, not good, commercial loan default rates increasing also. so looking forward....
In summary:
[a] Bull market intact, the age of the bulls 😊
[b] Don’t spend time predicting the next great crash, as fear will get hold of you.
[c] Market volatility will increase leading to pullbacks (4% to 10%) providing buying opportunities.
[d] 20% bear market happens once every 3.5 years. Likewise, 15% correction happens once every 2 years.
Thank you for the over the top video packed with honest and informative data. I hope everyone understands the sacrifice and time you must put in to provide us with this free information. I am very appreciative of everything you do for us.
By far my favorite market review! - Thank you so much!
why? because it confirms your bias? what actual conclusions can you draw? none of this is investment advice. its a bunch of charts where the presenter chooses the symbols that he wants to show you to prove his bias....to sell you his service.
@@brentlorrilliere6057 So what? Here on RUclips, Chris is neither a fundamental analyst, nor a financial advisor. He always makes that absolutely clear in his videos!
But that doesn't mean his videos have no value from a technical point of view. They sure do! If timing the market is not your cup of tea, there's plenty of other youtubers you can follow. Nobody is forcing you to watch Chris' videos!
@@brentlorrilliere6057charts give you probabilities not conclusions. Seems you are unfamiliar with how TA and YT work.
Chris & Kathy Ciovacco Are National Treasures! ☝🙌👏🏆💯🥇
Agreed!
Brilliant analysis thanks 😊😊
Excellent research and commentary! Thank you Chris and Kathy!
Love the facts you presented it with objective data, not based personal opinion or biased
My Saturday morning coffee and CC. Charting above my technical levels but you guys put all the work in for viewers to digest. The AVWAP chart on the small caps looks like the 'canary in the coal mine' to me. If that trend breaks below those tight lines of uber strong support on the IWM, "look out below"...163.72 could be retested, a -17% move, but not likely...election year and there still exists a 100% probability the FEDs cut rates at least once in 2024?
Excellent research and summary. Thank you!
Excellent research, Thank you guys
Thank You!
Always a balanced review
healthy correction would be good, no greed yet but it's coming
very good
Chris, this is a good assessment of the present situation but my model shows the market to be more vulnerable. I'm seeing significant weakness in IWM and the SPY is definitely not showing the same strength of trend that it was a few weeks ago. As a result I've pulled about 6-8% more of my portfolio from the market and into cash, and some into commodities. I'm still mostly in the SPY, QQQ and related stocks but pulled back a bit. I still expect new highs and many of them in the coming months and years but for the middle term I'm seeing vulnerability.
When you say "commodities", which ones do you men, exactly?
@@afonsodeportugal I went long gold and silver about a month ago but missed the move in oil. I'm considering moving into XLE and DBC. I know a lot of people go into gold miners but it's not something I'm familiar enough with.
Copper gold
please tell us more about the nature of your model. Right now, you're just pulling a rabbit out of a hat.
Great video this weekend.
I believe his bullish thesis is correct. It will be an opportunity despite popular belief when real dip happens. The fear will be so amplified we will oversell things on the worst news likely geopolitical event. And people will be surprised how big the bounce will be
Thanks
Great analysis I like how you add education to the analysis 💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎
Awesome analysis as usual and thank you for your selfless sharing! Curious if you could add the number of days the yield curve was inverted in relation to the corresponding corrections and their depth? It would be very interesting to see how they match up to the blue, orange, and yellow boxes. If my info is correct we are in the second longest inverted period in market history approaching 500 days which would eclipse the 1929 period.
Fear uncertainty and doubt ahhhhh
One thing i did notice yesterday is that Russel was down a similar amount as the Nasdaq comp, Nasdaq 100 and the S&P, suggests that risk is not off.
😅
Russel is down on a year though
Cuz yesterday was mostly geopolitical derisking.
@@thomasc2680 Russel has the highest beta at around 2x the others. maybe you are dim not to of pick up on the point being made.🤣
Sorry misunderstood.
27:45 Which book is the Soros quote from?
the best model for comparison was 1929!
DEVILS ADVOCATE: on the XLE vs XLK chart, If the October 2023 lower high is breached and we push back up to the October 2022 peak and breach that, then the whole 2023 correction could simply be a correction in a longer term trend DOWN that began in October 2020
Pullbacks are normal.....but when they morph into bear market is the unknown event that you might not see until you've already had significant drawdowns. Therein lies the risk of investing.....
Is it just me? Or does anyone else step back and look at many of those charts? Zoom out and they look like they're building giant head and shoulders....so, we spike for a few weeks? Then fall to the neckline end of 24 maybe or early ish 25? I know we don't have a time machine but objective historical analysis of global geo military/political eras of conflict that mirrors today's environment and a giant H&S starts to make some good sense. Go up hard some more first (from now) then fall back as greater picture effects are felt by the economy and markets and then after a while another hard to dumpster fire lows for everyone. If ever calling tops and bottoms and making solid long term investment considerations mattered more than the coming trip we're going on
In what time-frame are you seeing a H&S?
i say you it can by quiqly turn down in short time , now it is happens and later yes we go up again , but when ? nobody know , mayby one year or 2 , yes you buy future earnings for over 3 years ,
first
Please close your comments. These people are a nuisance.
Overheating is not the problem. Crashing to a crawl is the problem. Credit card defaults at all time highs, other bad debt of all types to accumulate quickly.
@@marekan1410 several youtubes been covering it, you think they are mistaken?
@@marekan1410 i found one of the slides, yes not at all highs at all you are right on that, but they increasing. credit card balances at all time highs, defaults increasing, not good, commercial loan default rates increasing also. so looking forward....