Supply: Past, Present, Future + Predictions
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- Опубликовано: 8 фев 2025
- In this video I cover predictions on supply and availability of inventory based on the trends of the past. During the supply shortages of 2013, we saw a huge increase of supply and capacity come into the market place. As a result, manufacturers found themselves over extended in capacity when the 2016 election results came in. Now, we are in the midst of a supply shortage with no real view on supply increasing. Are manufacturers waiting on the results of the election before investing in more capacity? I think so and in this video I discuss my reasoning.
Please do more of these. As much as I enjoy guns, the business side is even more fascinating.
I second this.
3rd!
The best thing about the channel.
agree
See Ammoland or NSSF.org . They provide industry details.
This reminds me of a required course I took in college (one of those you have to knock out to graduate). It was a history course, but it was a study of US history from the perspective of agriculture (technological advancement, govt. policies, market conditions and important players, etc., etc.). Turned out to be a fascinating class and I loved it. Today, the sociological matrix story of our times could similarly be examined from the perspective of studying the firearms industry.
I really appreciate your observations on the economics of this industry. When Sandy Hook happened, I was amazed at what I saw at LGS and big box. Lessons were learned buy when it was right. I hope your business stays profitable for you, and wish you were a LGS in my area.
Any serious CCW user or armed officer; corrections, LE, armed security, PIs, etc needs to STOCK UP. 📦 I got 100rd of federal HST 124gr +P 9mm, 50rd of .357sig Critical Duty, 25rd of Underwood Lehigh Defense .380acp . I shot up my .40S&W a few months ago. Be realistic and store your rifle, handgun ammunition properly. 🗄.
Gotta keep the infrastructure up and running.. No ammo, no defense
My goal is to open my own gun store/ range within the next 4-5 years. Watching your videos gives me a glimpse of the business I want to be a part of. Thanks Chris
I'm really starting to like you young man. Gives me hope for your generation. Very insightful and well thought out and presented. I shall return.
I love these videos. Thank you for keeping us al posted. Thanks from Ca.
That’s well behind enemy lines. Good luck.
Will someone please buy that RUGER 10/22 so he can go home.
😂😂😂
Ha Ha looking pretty bare in there. Love my 10/22!
Hi I am a viewer from the UK. Gun control is VERY strict here. We cannot (privately) own handguns. However, I find this site (Marksman TV) extremely informative of the social and political life in the USA. Keep upthe good work!!!
I really appreciate these regular videos. Keep them going!
I agree. 1000s of new gun owners, CCW users are now out there. 📰🗂💲⚖ Few have a real grasp on the shooting sports industry or the gun laws, policy in 🇺🇸. Handgunlaw.us is a big ✔. New CCW or open carry users should see CCWsafe.com . Get legal aid & know how to deal with a real lethal force event before it may occur.
Interesting Video. I visited Brownells headquarters in Iowa today. Hunting ammo was available.... high end stuff. I saw a box of 50 223 am with a $75 price tag. Black Hills Gucci ammo. AMMO was just not available. They didnt have one round of 380ACP. No Mossberg 500s or 590s. Benelli high end guns, yes. LOTS of ARs... 1 AK but NO ammo fro it.
Gunbot.net ;)
It sure is nice to shoot 40. Nine isn't so cheap anymore if it's even available. I never have a problem with finding 40.
Facts. I got my Glock 23 and I’m glad I have it for times like this.
Be proud .40 owners!
I don't understand all the negativity from shooters about 40. I recently bought a police trade M&P 40 and I love it. The recoil is very manageable. I still like 9mm but 40 is awesome.
@SeanJ2A I have 5 glocks. 4 of which are 9mm and my 5th is a 21. I shoot the full sized .45 better than all of the 9s. Go figure
.40sw and .45acp feel exactly the same to me but it is just smart to have different chamberings. Low supply and high prices isn't a new concept. If one is high, I'll just get the one that is low. Now we play the waiting game.
People are constantly stampeded into buying frenzies. A month ago you couldn't find a roll of TP to save your soul. Now the stores are flooded with it. The same will occur with guns and ammo. The lesson is have a cache of important supplies of all types.
Every ammo shortage takes YEARS to come back 2013-2017.
Manufacturers are making it as fast as they can. Where TF does it all go? Not sold to public. Never see it.
Joefoam7 - the shortages of reloading components lasted for YEARS after Obama was first elected. There were common powders that I couldn’t find for 2 years or more. Primers? .22 LR Ammo was a nightmare for even longer.
colt45 Peacemaker it goes faster than you would think... In my area people have started going early in the morning and clearing the shelves.
The question will be how much will be enough to get you through a dry period? I'm not sure 2000 rounds of 9mm is enough to get through one year like this one is turning out to be, if you would want to go to the range about every two weeks to shoot a minimum of 1 box of 50 rds, thats 1250 rounds alone. You may want to shoot more, which could easily put you well over 2000 rounds.
I'd rather be over prepared than under prepared.
Thanks for the vids. It keeps us all posted on the situation in the country with firearms. Keep up the great work, brother.
Great video, please do more like this one. I believe you are right. My favorite gun shop told me the very same think. That gun production will not increase till after the presidential election. Keep up the great videos.
S&W increased 🏭 staff in Maine, MA a few years ago then when the industry began to 📉 laid off 25% of the work force 👷🏻♂️. Guns and gun industry accessories are not like 📱, toasters or 🚘. The gun industry is regulated & logistics, supply, production issues are at play.
Excellent video. Thanks for sharing your thoughts on some likely scenarios. Very helpful. Especially liked your comparisons to prior years' market shocks. Well done.
Love this guys channel and I’m a first time gun buyer and I just bought a Springfield armory 1911 range Officer Target and still waiting on the background check!
I've been stocking up on ammo for a long while after seeing past fear cycles. It is always helpful to have less popular calibers in times like these like the .40, 10mm and one of my favorite .44 special.
Very informative, good job. Having lived through SEVERAL of these nightmare scenarios over the years and being an avid reloader I've prepared very well. When obozo was if office and things became unavailable (FOR YEARS) I came to the realization that times like these are the perfect time to be sitting on product. I waited for 4 years to finally see primers come back in stock. The writing has been on the wall for quite a while, I hope many have taken advantage of it.
Our shop works with 12 of the 14 largest distributors in the country and what we see right now is that there is *nothing* in centerfire semi-auto handguns under $1100 left in any of the warehouses. Everything under that threshold is going toward backorders and allocations. Kimber and Daniel Defense both said everything they are making to the end of the year is spoken for. Many manufacturers are saying they can't get raw materials (such as plastic pellets, aluminum and steel) to even make products. Shutting down the country for 2 months and then reopening at half-staffing is the root cause. Firearms and ammunition are not the only industries affected. Everyone sees this area because that is where their focus is. But look around. There are no car parts like airbags, and seat belt tensioners. There's a lot less inventory in basic durable goods like insta-pots, hair driers, etc. Everything that is a complex manufactured part is in short supply. *IF* we can get the manufacturing back up and running at 100% by the end of August and nothing stupid and unexpected happens through the end of the year, *maybe* we will see things *start* to get back to normal in March 2021.
Thanks for the insight, all sounds logical. Like every up and down, just gotta ride out the waves.
I always find my self watching these vlog type videos of yours great to see what is happening in other areas and hear your predictions on the market biased on experience and history good stuff.
I really enjoy this series. Thanks for the info
Thank you for your insights. I have plenty of 22 since I was buying when it cheap but I was lax for 9mm and now I can't find it at any price.
I love your insight about the gun inventory.
As always I love your insight. As I've said on previous videos I'm a super small time dealer and things have been tight. In the last few weeks I've been able to get one gun and that's it. I haven't heard from my reps in almost four months. I did see some items coming back in stock during the first dip in sales that you mentioned. And I agree with you that this sales rush has been worse. Great point about manufacturers not wanting to go all in before the election. I never thought about it like that but it makes perfect sense. Can't wait for the next video!
Excellent video....my son works for Dark Storm they make AR 15s......they are working 24 hrs a day and are swamped with back orders
I bought 1000 rounds of 9MM 2 years ago, tried to get my gun buddies to buy some then, they declined. NOW they are wanting to buy some, I said sorry, not now!
Please keep doing these videos. Great insight for those of us on this side of the counter
Thank you for making these videos like this. As a gun owner, you got to watch the market.
The next thing on the horizon is rioting that will come from the unemployed losing their $600 a week bonus - 2 weeks.
WORD!
next thing is buying those used- never fired arms
Don't forget stimulus checks have an effect too. People who normally couldn't afford guns will be able to. Like me lol
my stimulus check went straight to firearms.. 😅
@Deez Nuts idk what kind of "hand grenades" you're looking at for under $250, but I prefer the more reliable ones that won't explode in my hand. If you wanna shoot Jimenez or Hipoint: more power to ya, but I like my hands.
And yes, I have a job. A pretty well-paying one. I'm not cracking into the fortune 500 or anything, but it covers bills and the cost of raising a teenager, and not much else
Yup bought me another pistol with mine.
I always click "like" button first before viewing your video. Nice discussion as always.
Very concise and informative. Subscribed
Great video and with some information to use to plan ahead. Thanks!
Another great video, thanks. Definitely keep us informed of what the market is doing.
It’s been a dream of mines to open my own business that sells guns it’s great to see you do it and talk and teach about it
This is a pretty good layout of past, present and future events that shaped and will shape the landscape for firearms, magazines and ammo
I’m switching my edc to 40s&w it’s the only ammo I can consistently find here in northern Illinois
Thanks for the 10 year recap.
Good video for strange times... Thanks.
Ammo sales have crashed down because there isn't any to buy.
Please do more of these. Thank you sir
This is not stopping anytime soon.
Hi point carbines are going for $500 now 😶
Glad I have 2 already
That was going to be my next gun. I still find them for $279. I wanted one so so bad. But I didn't want to get another 9mm because of ammo shortages. Because it was going to mostly serve as my fun gun. So I got a walther P22q instead.
I know- I can’t believe it! I sold a used one for more than it costs new..
@BLM areTerrorists he is talking about the hi-point carbine. Not the pistol.
Great video very factual and insightful.
Great job. More videos like this would be great!
LGS in Alabama has plenty of guns in stock limited sales on ammo waited outside 30 min once inside bought a new M&P pistol background check 30 min. .Big box store selves are barren except for a few rifle cartridges and Shotgun Target loads. There is ammo available on line today just ordered 4 boxes Winchester Silvertip 9mm
this was one fantastic video on this subject thank you
Yes, Rational analysis! Concur. It's not rocket science people. Buy low sell high. Basically buy in a non crisis era.
Nice niche channel and content
I think the next gun and ammo rush will be the biggest yet, third times a charm
A rush to empty shelves. The used market is starting to get wierd.
Good talk. 👍🇺🇸
In my state, demand has not subsided at all. Our background checks are run through state police rather than feds. The backlog has been over 4000 at any given moment for weeks now and at the rate they are being cleared there is a de facto 7-9 day waiting period even though actual waiting periods aren’t legally mandated. Ordinarily people are cleared in a matter of minutes. I’m told by people that are in the business of selling guns that it seems like 75% of that is first-timers.
After Sandy Hook; 2012, CBI in Colorado had background, gun buyer checks taking 7, seven days! 🗓. 😟. I got a new Glock 33 .357sig in early 2020, the FFL office took nearly a hour for my purchase to clear. I have a valid W/ccw license too, Mylicensesite.com .
I agree with your assessments. thank you for the video.
We still haven't gotten any huge shipments. We did receive some surplus 30 cal😆 even in the wooden crates
It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine.
100% agree, excellent video.
Yep....i agree.
Love the industry insights.
You’re right on point but I would also say that if the senate fall to the dems we will be in a period of crazy buying to.
Good insight. Thanks
good info and thoughts, keep used videos coming, hopefully people will start selling once they need the money.
Like hearing your insights.
speaking from Portland, OR....for the last 4 weeks I don't see any ammo for 9mm , .40, 5.56 and the sorts. I work for a trucking company and I do see shipment coming and going on ammo. Example...Coastal Farm and Ranch had 3 pallets of 9mm and 2 pallets of 5.56...over 100,000 rounds each...so I waited a week to call the local store and they told me there was none in stock and none on the shipment arrival. So where did it go? So I had to resort to buying online. Got what I wanted but it's just a bummer I can't go locally and support my local business.
Everyone is running around buying guns because they are scared and here I am finally old enough and financially capable of getting a gun but I can't. All I want is an M&P 2.0 compact for edc, but they apparently don't exist anymore.
Dancow you beat me to it. Good advice.
Look around in August or September. Check out r/gundeals on reddit and check on gunbroker, armslist or gun forums
Sportsman outdoor superstore has it for $529.99
I've purchased from them, have it shipped to your local ffl/gun store
there's a whole universe of options out here. fixating on the "latest and greatest", "what some asshat on ytube said" or "what all my buddies have" is limiting. (yeah, i'm an "asshat on ytube" :-) )
@ nah, that's not what this is. I went to the range and shot 7 9mm guns side by side. I narrowed it down to 3 that were each almost perfect. One of them was an m&p compact. I loved everything but the grip. It was too short and my pinkie kept the magazine from ejecting. I later learned that the m&p 2.0 compact had .7 inches more grip and I decided on that based on the fact it solved the one problem on a gun i otherwise loved.
I bought cheap, stacked deep...
...since 2005!
If anything, 2008 and 2012 showed me how lucrative private gun sales can be... 2016 showed me they always will be.
People should have been taking advantage of the last 3 years of the salad days we've had.
You are spot on..........
They should still be scaling up because California is a HUGE market and there is a large and steady demand here before some laws are enforced beginning in 2021 regarding background checks on all firearm parts.
Just heard on another channel that a major ammo producer is hiring and running 3 shifts at full capacity and can`t even make a dent in demand.
Thanks, I enjoyed this video
Good video thanks👍👍👍
What's up with mossberg 12 guage products??? Any thoughts?
Great video.
Right on Chris
Nice analysis.
I don’t know man... I’m still seeing PSA GAG Buds and other online stores with zero to no inventory, the local mom&pop shops in my area kinda look like your shop in the background.
Money's been so tight and scarce. I've got a kid to feed and a widowed mother to look after.
All I want is ammo, ammo, ammo. And if I get enough cash together, some build stuff, used, online, direct ship, or gun shows and such. For obvious reasons.
Hey Chris great video
I asked a question on your NICS video and didn’t get an answer. I’ll try here. That short version of my question is can I or should I try to buy a gun while I’m on delay for a different gun? Thanks.
It does not really matter. You can, but you will likely just get a delay again. It will have no impact on your other form while it is processing.
Thanks
Is that a gun store or a store that sells displays for guns? 😉 Geez man, you guys have gotten swamped by the demand.
I'm betting it's a case of undercapitalization. I think the suppliers are strapped to fulfill larger contracts too. Our local mom and pop stores are still stuffed.
@@nicholassmerk Where are you? I'm willing to donate to retirement funds.
Thanks. That's a very interesting topic. I heard a rumor that some of these gun manufacturers are making ventilators. Not sure what that does to the supply bottlenecking... if true.
Nobody's laughing at .38, .40 and .357 now.
They panic buyers are why I reload. It gets really tiresome to try to find a box of ammo these days. I've been reloading since 1979, back before the "good times" of low-priced name-brand ammo came and went.
But now, if you want ammo, reloading is pretty much a necessity.
A necessity if you can find the components especially pistols primers....
@@rickreynolds9957 If needs be, you can use rifle primers in pistol ammo. You just need to back off the max charge by a couple tenths of a grain because of the rifle primer's slightly higher pressure.
Awesome video
Well said !
So many first gun buyers, I predict a surge of domestic gun accidents....
I just got a ohio nics delay trying to pick up two transfers at the same time. I'm left wondering what the delay is for since I bought a pistol a month ago. I did purchase a lot of ammo for my current and transfers still needing to be picked up.
BTW, do firearm dealers get ticked if a customer is making transfers through their store instead of buying their inventory? I'd like to use their store but they don't have what I want.
Wowza that was a lot of words ... Not saying you're wrong, just wow. You need some visuals when you tackle these topics ... Like CRS's whiteboard of knowledge
just found new s/w model 43-c 8 shot 22 long pistol happy as a clam !
I haven't seen decent 9mm range ammo in weeks, whether online or at stores. I finally found some Magtech ammo using ammoseek.com and ordered 4 boxes. Not my favorite brand but it'll do for now.
Got some. Thanks.
@Alexander Larson Those are them things they stick on the end of the cartridges.
...or did you mean a specific caliber?
magtech ball ammo is actually better than most bulk ammo, and they have very good quality control for the reasonable prices that they demand.
@@inferninx Yeah, Magtech isn't bad ammo, it's just not my favorite. I like to shoot range ammo that is equivalent to my defense ammo. Right now that's Federal 115 HST 9mm, so I prefer to get Federal 115 range ammo. The Magtech will do just fine in the meantime.
Check armslist
You need weapons up on the shelves, I had 180 Magazines Magpul PMAG 30 Gen-3 AR-15 Magazine .223/5.56 30 Rounds that I bought for $10 bucks each when I took them all and sold them for $50 bucks each in a single weekend after the Floyd event ...... and in return they were sold again for $99.00 on different media networks.
Buy a lot of Mags !
Nice profit. Well done.
Please let me know if you get any micro dracos brother
After I purchased a 9mm a month ago :
Me: (settling in to make a choice from a half dozen options) ok sir can you help me choose some good self defense ammo
Clerk : lol wutt
Me: 😔
If you'd stop listening to the LIARS on the main stream media, and tune in to the people who really know what's going on, you'd be better prepared next time. We (gun owners) are now the subversives, fighting for our rights and our survival. Stop listening to the people that want to make you a servile drone.
@@richardm3023 Not drone, but slave, you are not to question anything, if they want you to put a diaper on your face you will or be punished severely for it.
@@richardm3023
You preaching to a black?
Why don't you stop living in your imaginary world where you and other fuds are fighting for survival by leaving comments and stockpiling ammo while you continue to look the other way with every government overreach.
Thanks for the vid. :-)
You should always have extra rounds of ammo and invest in a clone 22 of your gun to practice w in scarce times. Bare minimum get a realistic airgun that is a clone to practice w.
Get the CMMG 22 conversion for your AR and you have the best of both worlds.
A Smith &Wessom M&P 15-22 is a really good.22 to learn the AR-15 platform
Man, no 9mm ammo anywhere unless you want to spend $.40 a round, if it's even available.
Is ammo at full production or is the Kung Flu still keeping capacity limited?
The gun stores around me don't look that bare. Ammo is rationed per customer but there are plenty of guns to buy.
I’m interested in a bren 2 pistol how long is that taking to get in
Reloading components are hard to get too. Powder almost impossible in the ones I need.