MoneyTalk - Outlook for Canada’s Housing Market
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- Опубликовано: 11 сен 2024
- James Orlando, senior economist at TD, joins MoneyTalk to discuss the Canadian housing market.
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For 2023, it’s hard to nail down specific predictions for the housing market is because it’s not yet clear how quickly or how much the Federal Reserve can bring down inflation and borrowing costs without tanking buyer demand for everything from homes to cars.
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This guy is just being hopeful. Reality will hit us all hard.
This guy is a Sr. economist at TD...who are you?
@@Mis_Uszatek yes. He is a paid economist and his job is to paint a rosy picture. I am a millionaire with a history of making right decisions and reading the economy correctly.
well this is fully promoted by folks who sell debt... 😂😂
kinda pushing the lie
@@Mis_Uszatek
😂😂😂 yeah smart economics man...
pouahahahah, i trust jim logic before the Guy that sell's the debt. Dummy bank's are a, profitable private business.
"Food prices have come down"?
Wow.
Truffles, caviar and champagne are cheaper now.
@@rok1475 LOL
Probably, somebody else does this guy's grocery.
@@slwide7507 Yes Virat Kohli does.
It is just getting started… I see food shortages coming.
I respect this guy’s opinion, but I don’t think home buyers would “throw in the towel” so soon into buying a home, especially with the hope that the Central Bank will start lowering rates in the near future (something that doesn’t look likely to happen soon either, by their own admission). The amount of debt Canadians are in is at a record high and we’ve seen a huge spike in auto loan delinquencies this year, so it’s likely that if this trend continues mortgage defaults could be right around the corner. That being said, I can understand why an organization that makes their living off lending would want to paint a rosy picture of tomorrow’s economy.
So house prices in Canada increased almost uninterrupted from about 2000 and by 2019 represented one of the most unaffordable markets in the world ... then they went up another 40 - 60% during the pandemic. Now house prices have dropped about 20% , but that has been accompanied by a massive increase in interest rates making prices less affordable than before the 20% drop. How is that viable?
Everything is fine. Gym équipements are on sale, dont miss out.
I like how the question of whether or not anyone can actually afford housing in Canada isn't even a factor here. Maximum 'housing as an investment' attitudes, not even pretending to care that lives are at stake. It's refreshingly honest.
Exactly. The giddiness at housing appreciation and high immigration in this guy's voice is disgusting
Interesting how no mention of lag effect brought up. People absorbing higher rates now but for how long?? Mtg payments have doubled for many that had variable rates or terms coming due for renewal and if "higher rates for longer" payments will just continue to eat into savings. He's a Banker and wants to remain optimistic. Banks are doing everything they can right know to help individuals avoid mortgage arrears but that won't continue!
Super low interest rates helped only those who bought and sold homes for a profit by using cheap money. It never helped the average home buyer looking for a place to live and raise a family. The greedy builders inflated the home prices and locked home buyers in to huge bank loans. The interest rates must stay at moderate levels. The only way to bring down home prices within the reach of the average home buyer is to flood the market by opening up all crown land including the green belt for new construction.
Inflation hasn’t peak yet. Inflation acceleration rate has peaked. Very different concept here. Therefore the price will continue go up. Just not as fast as it was.
How can you predict housing market value using data like strong immigration and income growth. Those entry are from the past. And doesn’t predict future accurately.
Personally I think the bank of Canada will still hike up 50 basis point even if inflation in Canada cool down. Mostly because boc needs to matching up with the Fed. Otherwise inflation from imports section will put upward pressure and bring inflation back
Yes, but if prices continue to rise and the economy remains unfazed , inflation will appear to be high and BOC will view that as a sign to raise rates.
This TD shill is clueless, he basically implied that rates will come down because employment and immigration remain high - Both of which add to inflation, which once again will signal a need for higher rates .
Also Powell already stated multiple times that he will keep cranking rates to bring inflation down, he doesn't care of housing crashes, and if the USA raises rates and we don't, we'll get even higher inflation due to forex rate devaluation of our currency.
Yeah we're getting at least another 50 bps.
Strong immigration will continue and everyone needs a place to live - it doesn’t matter whether it’s owner occupied or a rental - so the supply will be tight unless someone in government has a magic wand.
We also don’t necessarily have to match with the Fed. A low dollar is good for exports. Individually we’ll just have to accumulate a bit less imported stuff. A low dollar could mean less investment in new equipment by some businesses so that’s something to watch. Some Canadian companies also might look like good value for foreign buyers.
@@polishtheday tbh Canadian dollar has to stay relatively strong. It’s impossible to avoid import thing. For individual or corporate. Almost everything is imported. Merchandise from China. Food and vegetable from Latin America or other warmer climate. I have to catch with fed. Will be only stupid if we don’t. And if we don’t. Inflation come back like a storm.
Of course, it's stupid to continue to use those high immigration numbers since those new immigrants are not likely to buy real estate for many years since they won't have a high paying job enough to qualify for a mortgage in the first place. Also, since they will be relatively young since Canada doesn't want any older immigrants past 35 they won't have much money saved up if any. If they were rich like many supposedly 'experts like this one from Td' suggest then they wouldn't come to Canada to try to find a job. Logical no ? Also, all those refugees such as Ukrainians and so on don't have money either, not enough to even enter the Canadian housing market in big cities where they will end up living anyway, just like everybody else. Probably they will end up in some local public shelters that are already full. So this analysis is all wrong and based on the wrong assumptions.....
@@Carolinapetroska Most of the immigrants admitted recently are not refugees. Many are highly educated professionals who rent for awhile (especially those who are still students) but end up buying real estate a few years into working at well paying jobs. I know this because I meet more immigrants than those born in Canada through my volunteer work and just walking around my neighbourhood.
And it doesn’t matter whether you rent or own your own home because an influx of renters affects the number and cost of rentals which in turn increase the number of renters who decide to buy. I know this because I decided to become a homeowner when rents started going up. I was content to rent for decades. Not everyone wants the responsibility that comes from home ownership. But it came to a point that not only was it going to cost me less to pay a mortgage than a landlord in the long term but it was also a way of making sure I had control over my housing costs in the future.
Let’s all watch the housing price plunge.
Wishful thinking
@@rok1475 wishful wishfulness.
This guy isn't very bright
Correct he doesn't really know what he is talking about. A lot of nonsense talk and waste of time basically. I won't watch this show anymore. Not interesting.They are just guessing as they speak but they don't know more than the average dude.
Good information, we have two types of mortgages, insured and uninsured mortgages!!! The one coursing the price increase is Uninsured mortgages, they are for investors and people with more than 20% down, they are much easier to approve than insured mortgages. Investors are buying almost 50% of condominiums and almost 25% of single homes!!! If same rules as insured mortgages are applied to Uninsured mortgages, it will reduce the demand by investors!!! 👍🏻
BOC will increase or decrease rates in tandem with American fed rate.
Wait just a minute. He states that "maybe" interest rates rise to 4.75%? Really? Inflation is rising as he speaks. FACT: The Fed's January inflation numbers are out and they are 50% higher than their December numbers (.6% vs .4%). Everything I see tells me that the FED's February numbers will follow suit. So, The US FED is going to goose interest rates and Canada will follow or... have it's dollar crushed.
Listings are down because people refuse to sell into a falling market, because many who should be selling, will lose money. And, as our banks allow them to pay the same monthly payment while their variable interest rate rises, they think the good times are hear to stay. However, these homeowners are essentially underwater, falling behind on their mortgages, with the banks blessing. He's got zero data to back his promise of hitting that 3% summer inflation number. It's his "opinion". So, all those falling behind will get letters from their bank once they lose the equity deemed "acceptable" by their bank. When that happens they will be forced to pony up the difference (to catch up) and start paying the new mortgage payment, which will be at "today's" interest rate. Does this sound like the American "sub-Prime market? Where the low teaser rates got people into homes they could not afford (they were all going to sell before the teaser rate rose, but when the market "dipped" there were no buyers and they were trapped with the higher rates. Everyone bailed, housing prices crashed). This suggests that many Canadians will be forced to sell into a down market because... no bank is going to offer these people, whose mortgages are underwater, a mortgage, let alone one at a competitive rate. They will all be selling into a market with no buyers. Because most buyers do not buy when prices are falling. They wait for a bottom. And those that do buy, push prices lower and lower, faster and faster.
Just going to add that during the helicopter money bonanza between 2020-2022, many mortgages were open using fraudulent data - Like the Uber driver in Toronto that was given a million dollar mortgage....
Are these mortgage fraudsters even going to be eligible for a mortgage renewal in 2025-2026?
Still a lot of way down to go, no matter how many millions of people Trudeau packs into Canada.
I really hope you are wrong 😔.
BOC will raise if Fed raises.
Even if Feds doesn't raise. They just don't know what they are doing.....
The only problem is that in January the economy add 150,000 new jobs, what happens if even more jobs are add in February, and inflation start to climb up, and if energy cost go up then the only way out that I see is for BOC to cause a hard landing, a 08 housing crash, or just let inflation run until it run out of steam on it's own
Yep... Employment is not following their rate increases as it should (and no doubt all those jobs are low wage ones). Inflation numbers for Jan were 50% higher than Dec. FED will raise rates, we will follow. The sky's the limit until lots of people are unemployed , cannot afford their mortgages, housing crashes and ergo... inflation falls because people stop buying and sellers need to sell or they will be unemployed as well.
This aged well.... (5 year bond yield spikes)
Strong income growth???
Man, if I can only gym equipment...unfortunately food is still downright expensive.
Why can’t these analyst be honest and say we are in a plane crash but in slow motion
Who is this old journalist?? Bring in the millennials.
Honestly, at this point, our best bet to recover affordable housing is flooding the market. Big tax cuts and grants for construction companies to break ground on affordable housing and modest single-family homes.
It's a managed ponzi by banks and gov't, so this will never happen... you are too naive...
@@michael2275 I understand your view point but I disagree. The government is much too incompetent to pull off such a complex scheme. They can't even shut down an illegal border crossing properly.
@@NasTwice The banks are the main managers, they use the gov't as tool that they manipulate.
Nice dress... NOT! 😄
I just heard another smart guy giving different predictions.
This guy is high if he thinks we've seen peak 5-year bond yields
Dreamer
T D Bank economist predicts on the housing market. Housing market caliber into pricing. Future of the mortgage rates, How high mortgage interest rate will go?. Demand and Supply is this the issue on the housing market?. Interest rate adjustment is the risks to the housing market. Are we all in a soft landing?. 3% inflation rate will be forecasted and predicted for the year of 2023.
Still expensive housing.
Lies, all lies. Canada skipped 2008, prepare to meet your maker.
Nine months is not new
I don’t think anyone expected interest rates to stay between 0 and 2%. All you had to do was look at a graph showing how rates changed over fifty years or so, or just realise that by their very nature they can’t hover near zero.
I’m retired and house is paid off so this is for the young people . My three kids in there 20 s live here for free going to university so all good!!
New immigrat don’t bring big money 💰 to Canada 🍁 🇨🇦 🍁 only low paying job do newly immigrant
Ponzi scheme
Great news inflation going to more favorable percentage by summer.
He's dreaming. January's inflation numbers were 50% higher than December's (.6% vs .4%). February numbers will not be lower. Bet the FED gooses rates.
I hope he’s right nevertheless planning for the worst to come.
The worst is coming by end of june
Yes there are so many listing that are either expired or terminated which means they are not selling at anywhere near the asking price so it's not doing to well out there.
@@Carolinapetroska not only but people have learned how to be careful during harsh times