Here's why Disney stock is moving higher
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- Опубликовано: 8 ноя 2023
- Michael Nathanson, SVB MoffettNathanson founding partner and senior research analyst, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the recent run-up in Disney's stock price, why the stock moved higher, and more. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: cnb.cx/2NGeIvi
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At current price of under 90, PE is over 70, with median diversified media stocks averaging 17PE! Maybe Disney has a plan to dig for oil or gold on their parks??
Powerful brands(especially media) have the effect of artificially inflating stock price which can be catastrophic if the brand tarnishes even a bit, let alone the fact investors may simply wake up and realize they paid for the idea of a brand and not profits.
You’ve got an excellent point about it being a powerful brand overseas! So where is the upside potential if no more international expansion happens and park/cruise/merch prices can’t get higher? All of the revenue streams today(cruises, international parks) were planted before Iger, and it’s generally undisputed he mismanaged his (recent) acquisitions(Fox, ESPN, Star Wars). The company managing Tokyo Disney(Disney owns and operates nothing in Japan, they are only paid a small licensing fee) has shown up current Disney management, with better rides(such as their Pooh) and DisneySea.
Seemingly NONE of the DIS board members (appointed by Iger) are actually Disney people or even in that type of business, with one being the president of (gulp) the Council on Foreign Relations.
You're off.... be mindful of your own bias.
*The slowdown in parks domestically is a market trend due to normalizing tourist trends; the post COVID surge is being normalized affecting the entire tourist industry. This is supported even more by these points:
-Park attendance is slowing down but still above pre-COVID levels.
-Attendance is slower in all Florida parks: Universal, Sea World, Hotel occupancy, Airbnb, travel agencies....
So the slowdown doesn't reflect anything unique to Disney, but clearly you took it as such.
Upside? Disney is already updating so much of their parks recently. Iger will lower prices next year, Universal will raise theirs. Their IP is strong, I donnu where you get your assessment of franchises, but here is mine: Fandom yearly survey puts Star Wars and Marvel as number 1 and 2 as the internet's top franchises. Circana & Global Licensor Report all put Disney's total merch retails market share 4-5x times their competitors; led by Star Wars, Marvel and Disney Princesses. Lego specifically grew too much compared to other categories.
looking ESPN Bet as a possible catalyst: is it or is it not? we'll see: some pointers are hopeful:
1)unlike other sportsbooks, this one will launch simultaneously in 17 states; never happened before there fore PENN or ESPN could have impressive numbers to grip headlines.
2)Twitter followers and digital imprint: ESPN Bet already has 5.4 million followers vs DraftKing and FanDuel not even cracking 500k. ESPN Bet is more recent and promo is offered to all new subs without the need of a code; it's waiting for you to claim it.
The girl they have on ESPN Bet is very knowledgeable on sports betting and very easy on the eyes.
What do you think? it's tomorrow November14.
Imagine if they made good Star Wars. The numbers would always be up. Also don’t forget about Marvel but I’m a average fan for Marvel so I won’t speak on that. They need to get good writers and guess what THERE STOCK WILL GO UP
Disney stock dropped after Endgame opened with 1,2 billion opening weekend. Cultural warriors donnu wat they talking about
Funny... CNBC MSNBC
They sing a different song than everyone else.... why ? Hmmm
Disney went woke and went broke 😂 apparently parents don’t want DEI content for their children
Do you have a source that they are "broke"
If they are, why is their stock constantly climbing?
Disney Stock is headed to All time high in 2024
through lies, yes
What exactly is the great. content Disney is providing now compared to last quarter? I wouldn't buy into Disney personally.
If you're a cultural warrior please ignore this, but if you're not, here's my rebuttal.
Disney's films underperform per Disney's standards: the only legitimate flop is Indiana Jones. But even that grossed more domestically that Mission Impossible 7. About 7 films this year got into the top 25 biggest streamed films by opening week; 2 were Netflix, 5 were Disney's. For 3 years in a row the list of most streamed films by Nielsen is 2/3s Disney's. In general all their tentpole films are the better rated by audiences and critics.
My point is if this is a bad year for Disney, yet Disney still leads the box office or at worst be a close 2nd, then what will happen next year? Disney this year put up their 3 weakest Marvel subfranchises + 2 animated originals (no sequels). Next year kicks off wit Deadpool3, Inside Out 2, Mufasa the Lion King, Planet of the Apes and Alien. We'll see what else. Does that look like a losing hand?
@@aishaalamoudi599Trends, ROI and whether that ROI number can break free of debt gravity is what matters.
Trends: not good for Disney, streaming relies on paying super $$ numbers for differentiation from its major competitor, growing free entertainment (RUclips).
ROI: well, the numbers show Disney’s streaming is losing money, but why should this change if free entertainment is growing and becoming more sophisticated?
ROI vs debt: this could be the killer. Disney’s debt is not shrinking. Iger has already spent his load on buying bad acquisitions such as Fox and ESPN, and has mismanaged keystone companies such as Lucasfilm. You yourself mention Indiana Jones was a flop but maybe you should mention that before acquisition Lucasfilm’s last Indiana Jones (in 2008) made an enormous profit. Disney mismanages franchises under Iger. I don’t have to get into what a farce Star Wars has become. Pointing to irrelevant facts such as highest streaming numbers or cherry picking one box office number that belies the fact the movie was a bomb, isn’t helpful. According to a recent lawsuit former Disney star Gina Carano was disparaged by Twitter bots paid for by Disney; Bob Iger himself is being sued for this by Carano!
@@aishaalamoudi599 100%
@@aishaalamoudi599 What about Little Mermaid, Secret Invasion, Ant Man Quantumania? It has more flops than Indy. And now they just had another flop, The Marvels, the biggest MCU flop ever.
@@deepfriedokra mermaid made 570mil, it opened 1.4bil minutes on streaming. Antman made 480mil a sequel to a movie that peaked with 600mil just before Endgame! in what world are these flops?
I found out recently these cultural warriors tell their listeners a Disney movie needs to make 1.5 billion to break even? they tell you what THEY wanna hear.
Secret Invasion is a series! Have you ever seen anyone say "Warner's stock will fall cause this show they made is bad?" it's nothing for a company of that size, but it is to cultural warriors
Disney stock may be heading higher in near term, God knows Iger has attempted to obfuscate the value through acquisitions that didn’t pan, but there is nothing to suggest it will justify its current PE. The earnings were all cruise profit but that is maxed out as are all revenue streams. Parks, their one main cash cow, could collapse, nothing but unique new competition in that former monopoly space(Dollywood, Universal).
You don't understand how powerful the brand is. If you go to Japan or China. The Disney products are still everywhere. They are still extremely popular. They are only having difficulty in US and US isn't everything
@@ABanRocks PE is over 70, with median diversified media stocks averaging 17PE! Maybe Disney has a plan to dig for oil or gold on their parks??
Powerful brands(especially media) have the effect of artificially inflating stock price which can be catastrophic if the brand tarnishes even a bit, let alone the fact investors may simply wake up and realize they paid for the idea of a brand and not profits.
You’ve got an excellent point about it being a powerful brand overseas! So where is the upside potential if no more international expansion happens and park/cruise/merch prices can’t get higher? All of the revenue streams today(cruises, international parks) were planted before Iger, and it’s generally undisputed he mismanaged his (recent) acquisitions(Fox, ESPN, Star Wars). The company managing Tokyo Disney(Disney owns and operates nothing in Japan, they are only paid a small licensing fee) has shown up current Disney management, with better rides(such as their Pooh) and DisneySea.
Seemingly NONE of the DIS board members (appointed by Iger) are actually Disney people or even in that type of business, with one being the president of (gulp) the Council on Foreign Relations.
@@ABanRocks “Disney” products ARE everywhere. So are “Nike” and “Caterpillar”. Quotes is knockoff products. Essentially no one overseas buys authentic Disney merch. Almost no profit from Disney merch outside US, where it has maxed out.
@bobdobb9017 I am currently in Japan and every city I have been to have a major Disney shop. The 100 year Disney products are very big in Japan. Not fake stuff.
@@ABanRocks I don’t take pleasure in saying this…
Great but that’s almost all non-Disney OLC’s money. You’re actually proving my point that Disney is essentially maxed out retail prices and coverage.
Actual numbers:
Disney gets paid 5% of merch sales in Japan per licensing agreement with Japanese partner OLC. 2023 on $810mm total Japan sales nets $21 million dollars for Disney including all park and retail merch sales. Sooo, in Japan how much more merch will justify DIS stock 71 PE?
Seems to me this news story is just another one of Disney Iger’s propaganda manipulations. That’s seems to be why they announced $60 billion in “new park spending”. In the fine print you’ll find out there essentially is NO PLAN. It’s just a tactic to make investors think there is a plan and going to be decisive activity. Iger conveniently made himself dictator and blocked all avenues for succession in a way that would make Stalin jealous. Look at the Iger appointed board, NO actual parks or Disney people, just none, all random and suspicious. The president of the Council on Foreign Relations is a board member?…could explain the global woke agenda?
The reason Disney stock is up is because price hit a monthly buyers level at $74.
nope.
@@aishaalamoudi599 You must be paid by Iger....
Disney will recover. They are only having issues in US however they are still very popular around the world.
??? what? MCU, Pixar, Disney princesses always do better internationally .
@aishaalamoudi599 I just visited Japan recently and Disney was everywhere. I mean everywhere. The Elemental movie was the biggest oversea movie in South Korea ever in history. So Disney is still popular around the world.
Disney movies are failing worse over seas than in the us lol