BSU Seminar by Peter Kirwan, MRC Biostatistics Unit

Title: "Multi-state modelling to estimate infectious disease burden"
Abstract: Despite advances in statistical methods and comprehensive public health surveillance, understanding the many facets of infectious disease burden remains a challenge. Questions persist of how fast a disease is spreading, who in society is most at risk, and which interventions might have the capability to save lives.
In this talk I will present research undertaken as part of my PhD at the MRC Biostatistics Unit, with a focus on the development and application of multi-state models to estimate infectious disease burden from observational data. Multi-state models are a flexible approach to estimating risks and lengths of stay, and capable of accounting for data biases and censoring. I will demonstrate the potential of these models to address certain limitations of classical survival analysis methods, with specific application to the HIV epidemic in England and the real-world effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination.
Seminar organised by the MRC Biostatistics Unit and held on Tuesday 5th November 2024.