Hey, I’m with you…after we got the Seymour tornado, we were busy with our heads up our a** at Texas Roadhouse oblivious to the tornadic supercells just east of us.
I'm learning so much about tornadoes and its associated environtments and factors that help produce them with you case studies, Tray. Thanks for so much for all this content, it's invaluable!
That day was crazy, I was on the Holdenville tornado and that storm went from 0-100 within minutes as that MCS approached. Got the nudger and went ballistic
Trey.....dang you have helped me so much to understand different setups and events I'm starting to learn more every video you post..hats off to you sir great job on this!!!💯💯
Great work as always! Nixon’s (and many others) work on storm interactions is really propelling us to a new level of nowcasting. I feel like we’re learning more now than ever.
Man, this was a frustrating day to chase, especially after having to sit out the spectacle that was the 26th. Went from waning optimism to disappointment as storms failed, fatigue after initially calling it quits, very brief excitement chasing the Norman tornado family, and finally horror watching news of towns down south getting obliterated by nighttime monsters. What a mess.
Thanks for posting Trey! I was chasing this day but since I'm still a relatively new chaser I didn't stay after dark and it ended up being a chase bust for me (missed the Calumet tornado by minutes by getting caught in the conga line at the traffic light in Hinton) only to immediately have to take shelter when I got home due to a tornado warning... yeah. Awesome to see some of my theories confirmed, and some disproven! This year was a crazy year meteorologically
April 27th seems like a common day we see with really destructive tornadoes in the US. At least that week of the 27th. This system, the 2011, and I believe there are a couple more pretty significant tornadoes that were in and around the 27th of April.
@@ConvectiveChronicles probably because that's right near peak season and it's pretty unlikely to have no severe weather at all for 10 days straight in peak season
This was the first outbreak I’ve ever chased. by the end of the afternoon I was hanging out near El Reno by the Twistex memorial, disappointed by the storms thus far. Something in my gut told me to drop back south and I got rewarded with the Goldsby EF2, my first tornado
Hey Trey! First of all, thanks for releasing this amazing video! I personally believe that events that underperform (well, this one didn't but it didn't perform like we expected) are the best way to learn so your case study helps alot. I have one, maybe a little bit obvious, question. While rewatching radar data from the significant tornado north of Holdenville, I realized how similar that radar look was to the Barnsdall EF4 from the May 6th tornado event (specially at 28:49). Can we say that nudger's theory also played a direct role in the development of that tornado, specially due to the similarities between this event and the may 6th environment?
I agree; the underperformance cases are so fruitful in helping us understand the meteorology behind these events. As for May 6, I’ll save that answer in full for my upcoming case study on that day, but I will say I think nudger theory may have played a role, very similar to this case.
@@meghanhause9435 It's important to note that nudger theory doesn't have anything to do with tornado intensity/duration; it only has influence on inducing significant tornadogenesis. However, it does look like there may have been some small nudging cells at work in the Mayfield case.
This year is really the first year I got really into severe weather. After the first wave was done and it rolled into evening hours I was ready to say it was done. Little did I know the worst would happen at like 10 pm
Hey Trey! I love that you’re covering all the significant days that happened this year. Any chance we can have a smaller scale breakdown of the Hollister, OK tornado that went nuclear on radar scans?
I would like to see a video covering tropical weather at some point, especially with the season expected to escalate soon. Also a great video I've been wanting to see for a while, was pretty wild to track storms on that day
Tropical meteorology is not my forte, so I leave that stuff to Levi over at Tropical Tidbits. Might do a video on tropical cyclone tornadoes at some point though.
Excellent analysis of a really interesting, if also really awful and destructive night of tornadoes. I'm really looking forward to seeing you tackle some other big events from this year's tornado season, but if I could make a request, could you maybe look at the May 23rd Eldorado event? Not the most high profile tornado as it thankfully stayed mostly in open country, but I remember watching the news live as it happened, and its initially slow, SE moving behaviour that then accelerated and turned north, combined with its large, multi-vortex structure, gave me awful El Reno flashbacks, and I wondered if there were similar storm dynamics in play or if something else was happening? Cheers!
Thank you! Yes, May 23 is on my list! Such a unique setup; I'm still a bit stumped about how that storm produced such a long-lived, intense tornado. Will be interesting to dive deeply into the data to see what may have happened.
two trains of convection just steamrolling through. Excellent analysis on that detail! So many potent set ups this year in Oklahoma that could have been even worse than they already were
@@ConvectiveChronicles You covered it a while ago but it's sometimes forgotten that 5/3/99 had a significant nocturnal component, with three F3s, two F4s and four fatalities occurring after 02Z/9 PM CDT.
I was surprised the Marietta, OK tornado was rated an EF4. I travel through there all the time, taking loads to OKC. It was surreal to see the aftermath of that tornado, especially the damage it did to the Dollar Tree warehouse. That building used to light the town up at night. Now it's so dark.
I was surprised, as well. Definitely sad to know the Dollar Tree distribution center will not reopen, as I’m sure that employed a lot of people in the area.
This will be a day I’ll never forget. Between chasing during the day and capturing some incredible supercell photos, having to escape a QLCS while my wife was freaking out about it (lmao), my younger storm chaser friend deciding to stay behind when we went home and getting caught in some very sketchy situations and sitting at home watching this outbreak unfold knowing if we hadn’t left when we did, we would’ve potentially gotten stuck in Oklahoma since 35W got shut down and biggest of all, sweating bullets watching a tornado with a giant CC drop heading right for my family in Dickson, OK. They wouldn’t answer their phone until the last minute when they thankfully were able to go to shelter. All in all, this was the most impactful day of the season for me. Thanks for the breakdown Trey! Was wondering what the exact reasons were as to why it didn’t pop off until night.
I remember watching this outbreak and thinking it was a bust and it squalled out into a wind event then suddenly around 9 pm clusters for pre frontal supercells rapidly exploded in front of the squal line and immediately started rotating dropping several large tornadoes
Any idea what would have caused the development of two circulations on the Sulphur storm? Or how it might have been predicted, if at all? That sudden southern circulation nearly claimed my life when it developed right over Sulphur.
Those are great questions; I’m not 100% sure. Wish we had a little bit better radar coverage down there so we could get a higher-resolution look at that storm; the answer probably depends on storm-scale features. In any case, glad you made it out alive; that thing really ramped up fast.
Great video and it was fascinating learning about nudger theory. Especially since I was always under the impression that the more crowded the convection the less likely there is to be a tornado. Curious how this theory will enhance warnings in the future.
good stuff, man... sure thought one those after dark...north streaming...supercells were gonna keep popping till we got one here in DFW. time and the atmosphere were on our side...this time.
You should do a video on the May 25th - 26th, 2024 tornadic supercell that tracked over 400 miles from Enid, Oklahoma all the way until around Thayer, Missouri when it was enveloped into a QLCS line. Produced 16-17 confirmed tornadoes including EF3's in Claremore, Oklahoma, Decatur, Arkansas, Bellefont, Arkansas & Briarcliff, Arkansas as well as multiple EF2's and 1's. It had twin tornadoes, anticyclonic tornadoes, satellites as well as 100-110 mph wind damage from the RFD and inflow in multiple locations. It was an insane storm with strange structure, odd characteristics as well as moved through multiple areas with limited radar coverage at times making it hard to pinpoint rotation for the NWS. In the same overnight complex there were also devastating tornadoes in northern Texas but this one storm would be worth a video in itself as the area this storm did most of the damage in an area that wasn't really expecting storms overall. I would find the meteorological dive into it very interesting as I chased it from I-35 corridor in Oklahoma until Benton County, Arkansas when I had to stop to help with search and rescue. In regard to this video, great job on the dive into this complex! I was out chasing this day as well, missed a tornado in northern Texas but got some great structure. Then was almost rolled by it in OKC metro heading to my hotel after dark and had to shelter in a Casey's for a bit. Was an interesting night as well.
Thank you! That event is on my list; I’m just going in chronological order with these case studies from this year, so it’s a few videos down the pipeline.
I had originally planned to post up at Pauls Valley and make the decision to go north or south depending on what the probability was....got a late start (over-slept from an afternoon nap 😕) so I missed out on Sulpher but caught Holdenville (barely)...ended the chase in the Kiowa area watching the QLCS spinups between Kiowa and Haywood OK....not a bad chase...//
I was done chasing for the night and was nearby to sulphur when it got hit. Wanted to help, I started heading that way but found myself needing to pause to let scary couplet pass. But, I didn’t expect that crazy line of embedding training mesos to just keep coming and coming one after another, all which were extremely dangerous. Found myself in such a scary situation. I’ve got chills when looking back on those scans.
Ah yes the "Oklahoma After Dark" event as I called this one. Yeah stupid name but whatever. Good old Broyles getting this right on the day 6 outlook. XD This one I think has some of the most noticeable damage or maybe memorable damage from the stuff these tornado hit in Oklahoma around Sulphur, Holdenville, and Marietta. The Marietta tornado all lit up ghostly white in the dark I said at the time was really eerie but shows how concentrated an area of businesses it was rolling into to get that much light pollution on it. Actually.......that video I think is the only video of the tornado of the event and I think in a way from their reaction, they didn't expect the tornado be there or at least right next to them like that. The Holdenville one had arguably one of the fattest debris balls in 2024. That was a HUGE tornado and it pumped out several PDS and tornado emergencies on it's journey. This was the day also I remember people saying "bust" to the heavens....notable chasers too like I think Brett Adair and others. I was like "aren't you guys professional chasers?! You know the day time event even if it was lackluster, the LLJ was still coming in. I think this day people were also riding the high from the previous day too and in their minds had the mindset they were gonna see the same shit in NE/IA too where it went nuts during the daytime hours. Granted I didn't expect the nocturnal event to get on THIS level that it did. That little re-capping of the atmosphere also played a huge roll in how explosive stuff got once these were able to crack it off, it was go time with these. I do remember that 12z Norman sounding.....that was a crazy loaded gun sounding and I remember saying "this has insane potential if the LLJ and SRHs get crazy as expected". I do remember you guys going to the Texas set up to get the Knox City and Seymour tornadoes but man the chasers that were on those, it was a rain mess. Couple chasers I remember got REALLY stupid how close they were getting to the tornado on some of the messier roads and the worst part was even if they were paralleling it, you couldn't see it. That supercell after the tornado part was done by Devol, OK put on an insane structural show and insane shelf cloud that people like Pezman and others had. Overall a stupidly insane nocturnal event.
I remember my hs band was at an competition in Guthrie after that we were supposed to go to frontier city but that got canceled because of weather at first it really didn't do that much there was an very heavy rain in Edmond though i thought it was gonna be an bust but around 6or7pm all hell broke lose, it was an hell of a night.
Im very confused when it comes to rating a tornado. Why is it based on damage vs wind speed? Quite often these tornados develop in rural areas and technically cause no damage but if its putting off 200mph winds shouldnt that be considered?
The problem is that we can’t get good wind speed data from radar on every tornado. So they had to come up with something standard that could be applied to every tornado, and damage was that metric. They are starting to revise the EF scale to include high-resolution mobile radar data if available, but that is a ways away from being operational.
Reed Timmer followed this storm straight out of Texas! He followed it all the way back to OKC!!! It also fulfilled partially, the March 31st prophetic download as I knew absolutely nothing about these weather systems prior to it. This will persist into 2025, as now the tornado drought is broken. During his livestream, as I watched it that night, I saw the additional storms merge into the main one all before hitting OKC.
two request um it would be cool if you did the Mayfield Kentucky 2021 tornado, and then if you could do just this years memorial weekend in Kentucky too
Very interesting stuff. A lot of chasers (myself included) are pre-wired to prefer storms that are more out by themselves, with more breathing room before they might get "eaten" by a QLCS, and view cell mergers/interactions as unnecessarily complicating factors in an otherwise high-end enviroment, that are just as if not more likely to snuff out tornadogenesis as initiate it. I asked you on Facebook earlier why storms struggled to produce tornadoes east of I-35 in Iowa on May 21 despite the seemingly dangerous environment in place (STPs >5 per mesoanalysis according to SPC in their mesoscale discussion). After watching this, I'm already suspecting a lack of "nudgers" played at least some role. Part of my decision to avoid targeting southwest Iowa (aside from my struggles with the terrain and road network in that same general area on April 26 as well as 5-7-23, and other chasers' anecdotes of similar issues on 3-5-22) was that based on CAM solutions I thought storms there would be a mess of perpetually-interacting cells that would quickly get undercut by the cold front. I thought storms with more time to mature further out in the warm sector (like the one I ended up on near Albia, IA) would be the better bet, but they failed to produce despite being discrete and tornado-warned. These tornado events, even the high-ceiling/moderate or high risk ones, always seem to walk a fine line with capping, forcing, destabilization and storm mode, even subtle things like the wind profiles causing storms to become inhibited by their own anvil shading. It's become clear to me that the traditional shear/instability parameter space, while still important, is only a relatively small part of the equation.
You're exactly right; most chasers are conditioned to find the "tail-end Charlie" or find the most discrete supercell to have the best shot at seeing tornadoes. Cameron's research is going to turn that on its head and really change how folks chase tornadoes. I haven't taken a deep dive at the May 21 data yet, but there's a very good chance that a lack of proper auxiliary cells was a culprit in the lull after the early SW IA stuff. Like you said, the higher end events have a higher chance of underperforming because there's more that has to come together perfectly for a big event to take place. While you typically still need a good instability/shear combo, a lot more has to go right to get a big tornado outbreak.
I made a prediction, a couple days ago and would determime if my prediction was correct or incorrect. After watching this case study, my prediction was both correct and incorrect. I was correct about Dr. Cameron J. Nixon's theory about storm nudgers. I was incorrect about thermodynamics being better in Southern Oklahoma. I sort of correct about there being 1 or 2 pre-confluence bands. I knew there was some sort of boundary in which supercells were able to initiate on in the open warm sector in the nighttime across Southern Oklahoma. I just didn't know what specific boundary it was. Not a bad prediction I made though about why April 27th, 2024 went crazy at night.
oklahoma's lull in activity since 2016 was, in my opinion, more than made up for this year with that monster wedge that was probably ef5 on april 30 and the 3 mile wide ef2 tornado on may 19
Just when I got over it.. Trey comes to haunt me with this day again
Hey, I’m with you…after we got the Seymour tornado, we were busy with our heads up our a** at Texas Roadhouse oblivious to the tornadic supercells just east of us.
I took a look at my Google photos to see if I was out that day, and yeah. I have a great photo of a puddle.lol
I’m from the UK, we had the usual drizzle.😂
I'm learning so much about tornadoes and its associated environtments and factors that help produce them with you case studies, Tray. Thanks for so much for all this content, it's invaluable!
Love to hear that! Thank you so much!
That day was crazy, I was on the Holdenville tornado and that storm went from 0-100 within minutes as that MCS approached. Got the nudger and went ballistic
Thank you, I now fully understand why daytime part of the outbreak underperformed in Central Oklahoma.
Trey.....dang you have helped me so much to understand different setups and events I'm starting to learn more every video you post..hats off to you sir great job on this!!!💯💯
Thank you so much! That’s awesome to hear!
That was a wild few days
Great work as always! Nixon’s (and many others) work on storm interactions is really propelling us to a new level of nowcasting. I feel like we’re learning more now than ever.
Thank you! His new research is going to be absolutely game changing for both forecasters and chasers when an event is actually ongoing.
I've been waiting for this for so long, this is going to be great and prayers for the victims of these tornados
Man, this was a frustrating day to chase, especially after having to sit out the spectacle that was the 26th. Went from waning optimism to disappointment as storms failed, fatigue after initially calling it quits, very brief excitement chasing the Norman tornado family, and finally horror watching news of towns down south getting obliterated by nighttime monsters. What a mess.
The greatest weather documentary RUclipsr of all time is here! Love your tornado size video.
Thanks for your expertise and careful analysis. You always make thought provoking and insightful videos.
Thank you so much!
Thanks for posting Trey!
I was chasing this day but since I'm still a relatively new chaser I didn't stay after dark and it ended up being a chase bust for me (missed the Calumet tornado by minutes by getting caught in the conga line at the traffic light in Hinton) only to immediately have to take shelter when I got home due to a tornado warning... yeah.
Awesome to see some of my theories confirmed, and some disproven! This year was a crazy year meteorologically
April 27th seems like a common day we see with really destructive tornadoes in the US. At least that week of the 27th. This system, the 2011, and I believe there are a couple more pretty significant tornadoes that were in and around the 27th of April.
You’re right; April 27 (and the surrounding days) always seem to have some really active severe weather somewhere in the US.
April 27th, 2014 aswell
@@ConvectiveChronicles probably because that's right near peak season and it's pretty unlikely to have no severe weather at all for 10 days straight in peak season
This was the first outbreak I’ve ever chased. by the end of the afternoon I was hanging out near El Reno by the Twistex memorial, disappointed by the storms thus far. Something in my gut told me to drop back south and I got rewarded with the Goldsby EF2, my first tornado
Nice I bet Tim samaras gave you that gut feeling from the beyond lol
@@Joshua429Yeah right!Tim is forever the greatest chaser😢
Hey Trey! First of all, thanks for releasing this amazing video! I personally believe that events that underperform (well, this one didn't but it didn't perform like we expected) are the best way to learn so your case study helps alot. I have one, maybe a little bit obvious, question. While rewatching radar data from the significant tornado north of Holdenville, I realized how similar that radar look was to the Barnsdall EF4 from the May 6th tornado event (specially at 28:49). Can we say that nudger's theory also played a direct role in the development of that tornado, specially due to the similarities between this event and the may 6th environment?
I agree; the underperformance cases are so fruitful in helping us understand the meteorology behind these events. As for May 6, I’ll save that answer in full for my upcoming case study on that day, but I will say I think nudger theory may have played a role, very similar to this case.
@@ConvectiveChronicles Could this nudger theory also explain why the Mayfield tornado was on the ground for as long as it was?
@@meghanhause9435 It's important to note that nudger theory doesn't have anything to do with tornado intensity/duration; it only has influence on inducing significant tornadogenesis. However, it does look like there may have been some small nudging cells at work in the Mayfield case.
hey trey great summary! clearly a lot of work goes into your analyses, we really appreciate it
Thank you so much!
This year is really the first year I got really into severe weather. After the first wave was done and it rolled into evening hours I was ready to say it was done. Little did I know the worst would happen at like 10 pm
Excellent work Trey, thanks for making these. We appreciate it 👍
Thank you!
I started the day in Des Moines and ended up east of Wichita with a couple of tornadoes near Independence
Hey Trey! I love that you’re covering all the significant days that happened this year. Any chance we can have a smaller scale breakdown of the Hollister, OK tornado that went nuclear on radar scans?
That event is next on my list!
@@ConvectiveChroniclesyou’re the best dude
The Hollister event is crazy😂
Great at making every line and quote interesting and useful
Thank you!
I remember this... It was a scary day
Amazing work Trey
Thank you!
I would like to see a video covering tropical weather at some point, especially with the season expected to escalate soon. Also a great video I've been wanting to see for a while, was pretty wild to track storms on that day
Tropical meteorology is not my forte, so I leave that stuff to Levi over at Tropical Tidbits. Might do a video on tropical cyclone tornadoes at some point though.
Excellent analysis of a really interesting, if also really awful and destructive night of tornadoes. I'm really looking forward to seeing you tackle some other big events from this year's tornado season, but if I could make a request, could you maybe look at the May 23rd Eldorado event? Not the most high profile tornado as it thankfully stayed mostly in open country, but I remember watching the news live as it happened, and its initially slow, SE moving behaviour that then accelerated and turned north, combined with its large, multi-vortex structure, gave me awful El Reno flashbacks, and I wondered if there were similar storm dynamics in play or if something else was happening? Cheers!
Thank you! Yes, May 23 is on my list! Such a unique setup; I'm still a bit stumped about how that storm produced such a long-lived, intense tornado. Will be interesting to dive deeply into the data to see what may have happened.
Are you going to do a video on the may 6th underperformed high risk ??? Just wondering
Yes. Just going in order for now, so that's a couple down the list.
Ok sounds great 😃 👍 can't wait for the entire list @@ConvectiveChronicles
Yea I was gonna ask if he was gonna do that one
two trains of convection just steamrolling through. Excellent analysis on that detail! So many potent set ups this year in Oklahoma that could have been even worse than they already were
Thank you! Yeah, despite the active year, Oklahoma did dodge some bullets, as a lot of these big setups did not live up to their potential.
@@ConvectiveChronicles You covered it a while ago but it's sometimes forgotten that 5/3/99 had a significant nocturnal component, with three F3s, two F4s and four fatalities occurring after 02Z/9 PM CDT.
I was surprised the Marietta, OK tornado was rated an EF4. I travel through there all the time, taking loads to OKC. It was surreal to see the aftermath of that tornado, especially the damage it did to the Dollar Tree warehouse. That building used to light the town up at night. Now it's so dark.
I was surprised, as well. Definitely sad to know the Dollar Tree distribution center will not reopen, as I’m sure that employed a lot of people in the area.
@ConvectiveChronicles Exactly. I felt so bad for them.
@@ConvectiveChronicles *Update* The building is on fire.
@@GevoGenesis92 Yep. Sad
This will be a day I’ll never forget. Between chasing during the day and capturing some incredible supercell photos, having to escape a QLCS while my wife was freaking out about it (lmao), my younger storm chaser friend deciding to stay behind when we went home and getting caught in some very sketchy situations and sitting at home watching this outbreak unfold knowing if we hadn’t left when we did, we would’ve potentially gotten stuck in Oklahoma since 35W got shut down and biggest of all, sweating bullets watching a tornado with a giant CC drop heading right for my family in Dickson, OK. They wouldn’t answer their phone until the last minute when they thankfully were able to go to shelter. All in all, this was the most impactful day of the season for me. Thanks for the breakdown Trey! Was wondering what the exact reasons were as to why it didn’t pop off until night.
Wow, can’t imagine the emotional roller coaster you went through on that day…glad you and your family were able to get to safety.
Nudger theory is something I might need to look into!
Thanks for making another informative video on another tornado outbreak!
Cameron’s storm interaction research is going to be a game changer for meteorologists and storm chasers!
Are you going to be doing a video about the July 15th derecho eventually?
Probably not. Have a lot in the pipeline already
Yesss! I've been waiting for this one.
I remember watching this outbreak and thinking it was a bust and it squalled out into a wind event then suddenly around 9 pm clusters for pre frontal supercells rapidly exploded in front of the squal line and immediately started rotating dropping several large tornadoes
Any idea what would have caused the development of two circulations on the Sulphur storm? Or how it might have been predicted, if at all? That sudden southern circulation nearly claimed my life when it developed right over Sulphur.
Those are great questions; I’m not 100% sure. Wish we had a little bit better radar coverage down there so we could get a higher-resolution look at that storm; the answer probably depends on storm-scale features. In any case, glad you made it out alive; that thing really ramped up fast.
tornado (or a funnel, couldn’t tell) occurred over my home-town on this day, this is also the day that started my interest in tornadoes
Great video and it was fascinating learning about nudger theory. Especially since I was always under the impression that the more crowded the convection the less likely there is to be a tornado. Curious how this theory will enhance warnings in the future.
Thank you! Yeah, this new research on storm interactions is really going to change how we can nowcast tornadic activity for the better.
I love living in Altus. It gets fun down here
good stuff, man...
sure thought one those after dark...north streaming...supercells were gonna keep popping till we got one here in DFW. time and the atmosphere were on our side...this time.
Thank you! Yeah, DFW was close to having some issues; perhaps a slight bit more capping down that way tempered the threat.
You should do a video on the May 25th - 26th, 2024 tornadic supercell that tracked over 400 miles from Enid, Oklahoma all the way until around Thayer, Missouri when it was enveloped into a QLCS line. Produced 16-17 confirmed tornadoes including EF3's in Claremore, Oklahoma, Decatur, Arkansas, Bellefont, Arkansas & Briarcliff, Arkansas as well as multiple EF2's and 1's. It had twin tornadoes, anticyclonic tornadoes, satellites as well as 100-110 mph wind damage from the RFD and inflow in multiple locations. It was an insane storm with strange structure, odd characteristics as well as moved through multiple areas with limited radar coverage at times making it hard to pinpoint rotation for the NWS. In the same overnight complex there were also devastating tornadoes in northern Texas but this one storm would be worth a video in itself as the area this storm did most of the damage in an area that wasn't really expecting storms overall. I would find the meteorological dive into it very interesting as I chased it from I-35 corridor in Oklahoma until Benton County, Arkansas when I had to stop to help with search and rescue.
In regard to this video, great job on the dive into this complex! I was out chasing this day as well, missed a tornado in northern Texas but got some great structure. Then was almost rolled by it in OKC metro heading to my hotel after dark and had to shelter in a Casey's for a bit. Was an interesting night as well.
Thank you! That event is on my list; I’m just going in chronological order with these case studies from this year, so it’s a few videos down the pipeline.
@@ConvectiveChronicles awesome! looking forward to seeing your dive on it.
I had originally planned to post up at Pauls Valley and make the decision to go north or south depending on what the probability was....got a late start (over-slept from an afternoon nap 😕) so I missed out on Sulpher but caught Holdenville (barely)...ended the chase in the Kiowa area watching the QLCS spinups between Kiowa and Haywood OK....not a bad chase...//
Do you think this 'nudging' also helped the supercell and tornado that devastated Bartlesville?
Stay tuned for my May 6 breakdown!
I was done chasing for the night and was nearby to sulphur when it got hit. Wanted to help, I started heading that way but found myself needing to pause to let scary couplet pass.
But, I didn’t expect that crazy line of embedding training mesos to just keep coming and coming one after another, all which were extremely dangerous. Found myself in such a scary situation. I’ve got chills when looking back on those scans.
Thanks trey!
Are you gonna look into that monster from Holister and Loveland that also created the anticyclonic tornado?
That one's next up!
I feel like this year Oklahoma had a lot of atmospheric accidents that resulted in an extremely active year for tornadoes in the state.
Ah yes the "Oklahoma After Dark" event as I called this one. Yeah stupid name but whatever. Good old Broyles getting this right on the day 6 outlook. XD This one I think has some of the most noticeable damage or maybe memorable damage from the stuff these tornado hit in Oklahoma around Sulphur, Holdenville, and Marietta. The Marietta tornado all lit up ghostly white in the dark I said at the time was really eerie but shows how concentrated an area of businesses it was rolling into to get that much light pollution on it. Actually.......that video I think is the only video of the tornado of the event and I think in a way from their reaction, they didn't expect the tornado be there or at least right next to them like that. The Holdenville one had arguably one of the fattest debris balls in 2024. That was a HUGE tornado and it pumped out several PDS and tornado emergencies on it's journey.
This was the day also I remember people saying "bust" to the heavens....notable chasers too like I think Brett Adair and others. I was like "aren't you guys professional chasers?! You know the day time event even if it was lackluster, the LLJ was still coming in. I think this day people were also riding the high from the previous day too and in their minds had the mindset they were gonna see the same shit in NE/IA too where it went nuts during the daytime hours. Granted I didn't expect the nocturnal event to get on THIS level that it did. That little re-capping of the atmosphere also played a huge roll in how explosive stuff got once these were able to crack it off, it was go time with these.
I do remember that 12z Norman sounding.....that was a crazy loaded gun sounding and I remember saying "this has insane potential if the LLJ and SRHs get crazy as expected". I do remember you guys going to the Texas set up to get the Knox City and Seymour tornadoes but man the chasers that were on those, it was a rain mess. Couple chasers I remember got REALLY stupid how close they were getting to the tornado on some of the messier roads and the worst part was even if they were paralleling it, you couldn't see it. That supercell after the tornado part was done by Devol, OK put on an insane structural show and insane shelf cloud that people like Pezman and others had.
Overall a stupidly insane nocturnal event.
I remember my hs band was at an competition in Guthrie after that we were supposed to go to frontier city but that got canceled because of weather at first it really didn't do that much there was an very heavy rain in Edmond though i thought it was gonna be an bust but around 6or7pm all hell broke lose, it was an hell of a night.
Im very confused when it comes to rating a tornado. Why is it based on damage vs wind speed? Quite often these tornados develop in rural areas and technically cause no damage but if its putting off 200mph winds shouldnt that be considered?
The problem is that we can’t get good wind speed data from radar on every tornado. So they had to come up with something standard that could be applied to every tornado, and damage was that metric. They are starting to revise the EF scale to include high-resolution mobile radar data if available, but that is a ways away from being operational.
YES IT RELEASED
Reed Timmer followed this storm straight out of Texas! He followed it all the way back to OKC!!! It also fulfilled partially, the March 31st prophetic download as I knew absolutely nothing about these weather systems prior to it. This will persist into 2025, as now the tornado drought is broken. During his livestream, as I watched it that night, I saw the additional storms merge into the main one all before hitting OKC.
two request um it would be cool if you did the Mayfield Kentucky 2021 tornado, and then if you could do just this years memorial weekend in Kentucky too
still great video love all of these love learning and understanding as much as i can
Thank you! I already did the 2021 outbreak awhile back: ruclips.net/video/YLSQrwxjdc4/видео.htmlsi=LtjgVxe6lE8HRS3n
Very interesting stuff. A lot of chasers (myself included) are pre-wired to prefer storms that are more out by themselves, with more breathing room before they might get "eaten" by a QLCS, and view cell mergers/interactions as unnecessarily complicating factors in an otherwise high-end enviroment, that are just as if not more likely to snuff out tornadogenesis as initiate it.
I asked you on Facebook earlier why storms struggled to produce tornadoes east of I-35 in Iowa on May 21 despite the seemingly dangerous environment in place (STPs >5 per mesoanalysis according to SPC in their mesoscale discussion). After watching this, I'm already suspecting a lack of "nudgers" played at least some role. Part of my decision to avoid targeting southwest Iowa (aside from my struggles with the terrain and road network in that same general area on April 26 as well as 5-7-23, and other chasers' anecdotes of similar issues on 3-5-22) was that based on CAM solutions I thought storms there would be a mess of perpetually-interacting cells that would quickly get undercut by the cold front. I thought storms with more time to mature further out in the warm sector (like the one I ended up on near Albia, IA) would be the better bet, but they failed to produce despite being discrete and tornado-warned.
These tornado events, even the high-ceiling/moderate or high risk ones, always seem to walk a fine line with capping, forcing, destabilization and storm mode, even subtle things like the wind profiles causing storms to become inhibited by their own anvil shading. It's become clear to me that the traditional shear/instability parameter space, while still important, is only a relatively small part of the equation.
You're exactly right; most chasers are conditioned to find the "tail-end Charlie" or find the most discrete supercell to have the best shot at seeing tornadoes. Cameron's research is going to turn that on its head and really change how folks chase tornadoes.
I haven't taken a deep dive at the May 21 data yet, but there's a very good chance that a lack of proper auxiliary cells was a culprit in the lull after the early SW IA stuff. Like you said, the higher end events have a higher chance of underperforming because there's more that has to come together perfectly for a big event to take place. While you typically still need a good instability/shear combo, a lot more has to go right to get a big tornado outbreak.
What is it with April 27 and tornado outbreaks lol.
I made a prediction, a couple days ago and would determime if my prediction was correct or incorrect. After watching this case study, my prediction was both correct and incorrect.
I was correct about Dr. Cameron J. Nixon's theory about storm nudgers. I was incorrect about thermodynamics being better in Southern Oklahoma. I sort of correct about there being 1 or 2 pre-confluence bands. I knew there was some sort of boundary in which supercells were able to initiate on in the open warm sector in the nighttime across Southern Oklahoma. I just didn't know what specific boundary it was. Not a bad prediction I made though about why April 27th, 2024 went crazy at night.
April 27 is starting to become a legend and not in a good way.
oklahoma's lull in activity since 2016 was, in my opinion, more than made up for this year with that monster wedge that was probably ef5 on april 30 and the 3 mile wide ef2 tornado on may 19
Wish this guy would tell us his name or something
Trey Greenwood 🤔
💪🏻
Lfg.