Is The Mortgage War Over Already? (UK House Price Crash 2024)
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- Опубликовано: 15 окт 2024
- Why are BANKS suddenly INCREASING mortgage interest RATES and withdrawing some mortgage offers entirely? And what impact will this have on UK house prices in 2024? The UK housing market is in big trouble and a fall in mortgage rates was about the only thing that could have prevented a full blown UK housing market crash.
During the first few weeks of 2024, a so called "mortgage war" broke out amongst UK mortage providers. As market swap rates dropped under 4%, lenders slash their mortgage rates in a bid to win customers. This trend has recently come to an abrupt end with swap rates soaring by close to 20% from their recent lows.
Fears surrounding a UK housing market crash let to a huge slow down in the UK property market last year. This has left many mortgage providers desperate to lend.
Lower rates will lead to an increase in activity in the housing market, however, more liquidity could also lead to an acceleration of the UK house price crash as more properties come to market and increase supply.
Do you think house prices will fall in 2024? Share your UK house price predictions in the comments below!
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Mortgage rates are currently at an all time high since 2000(24 years) and based on statistics on inflation, we might see that number skyrocket further, a 30-year fixed rate was only 5% this time last year, so do I just keep waiting for a housing crash before buying or redirect my focus to the equity market
True, I mostly just buy and hold stocks, but my portfolio has been mostly in the red for quite awhile now. Unfortunately to be able to make good gains, you’ll need to be consistent and restructure your portfolio frequently.
in my opinion, it was much easier investing back in the 60s but it’s a lot trickier now, those making consistent profit in these times are professionals reason I’ve been using an advisor for the past 5 years to consistently build my portfolio in preparations for retirement.
my partner’s been considering going the same route, could you share more info please on the advisor that guides you.
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Margaret Johnson Arndt for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website… thank you for sharing.
Rates should stay higher for few years to calm down the housing market
That's not a bad point. If the cost of food, goods, energy increases the Bank are like 'Nooo, inflation bad, must increase rates!'. If however the cost of housing increases it's 'Meh, market forces, supply & demand'.
they've dropped to pre pandemic levels here, 20-30% down and they're still not selling. South Wales.
Which part of South Wales? I'm looking to relocate to Pembrokeshire.
@@stevenjardine2118 Won't be that part of Wales...prices up and up there.
A perfect storm is brewing in the United States. Inflation, bank collapse, severe drought in the agricultural belt, recession, food shortages, diesel fuel and heating oil shortages, baby formula shortages, available automobile shortages and prices, the price of living place. It's all coming together and it could lead to a real disaster towards the end of this year (or sooner). With inflation currently at about 6%, my primary concern is how to maximize my savings/retirement fund of about $300k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.
These are the conditions in which life-changing money is made by those who remain calm, patient, and take controlled risks. Volatility goes both ways. The bigger the red candles, the bigger the green ones.
Personally I think rate could go up if inflation is not down by q2 .investing in stocks can be a wise decision, especially if you have a dependable trading system that can lead to successful outcomes. Personally, I've been working with a financial advisor for about a year now. Starting with less than $200K and I'm now just $19,000 away from making half a million in profit.
That's fascinating. How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?
‘Laura Grace Abels’ is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. By looking her up online, you can quickly verify her level of experience. She is well knowledgeable about financial markets.
When ‘Laura Grace Abels ’ is trading, there's no nonsense and no excuses. She wins the trade and you win. Take the loss, I promise she'll take one with you.
Jerome Powell said just yesterday that sub 1% is over. U.S want to keep rates around 2% for foreseeable future…
Any seller who is hoping/waiting on low rates again better smell the fresh air
why seller? why not buyer?
@@ayres6727He meant buyer!! And he clearly doesn't know what he's talking about because Barclays is still within 4% of APR Mortgage Rates, although they too somewhat increased just slightly.
4% APR and below, is a sign of a pending crash in the market
@@ayres6727There will always be buyers.
So 2% Fed funds rate means 3% long term mortgage rate, that’s affordable for everyone and pushes affordability right back up to pre covid levels, the house price crash dream lives at 5% rates, wobbles at 4% and dies at 3%
Anecdote here.
My friend listed her home, a 3-bed mid terrace in Alvaston, Derbyshire last Monday. It went on for offers over 165k
She bought it for 150k in 2021.
By Wednesday that same week she had 7 viewings booked. By Friday it was 12 viewings.
4 offers, sold for 172.5k. It took 6 days to sell.
It's like I've always said, the lower end of the UK market is healthy. Too many renters, downsizers, and B2L landlords looking for anything they can get their hands on under 200k.
No crash coming, folks, not in the Midlands anyway.
There won't be a crash, but inflation will erode the relative value of property in a stagnant market. Just my take. It's a scenario that fits with everything we see.
Buying still beats renting every time. You're always paying a mortgage, either yours or your landlords. Dont delay.
Garbage advice. Buying doesn't always beat renting at all. As always, it's nuanced, and as always 'it depends'. I'm saving money renting at the moment, when that changes I'll buy.
@Paul-zu2hf I think we can agree that landlords don't subsidise their tenants with below-mortgage repayment rental rates!
For equivalent housing, I stand by my comment that it's always better to buy.
You can save money in the short term by renting, but you have to sacrifice living standards / area while you're doing it.
What I'm saying is don't try to time your entry into the market. It works very rarely. Buy, enjoy, and hold. Ride the waves of the market that trend upwards over many years 😀
I think you are right on most of your points and there are still buyers out there, but for the life of me though I don't know why. But don't delay? That's exactly what any buyer should be doing, whether its buying a house, a car, planning a house refurb, (and borrowing to do it) or retiring early. There will be an earthquake moment in the Financial World in 2024/very early 2025 that we have never seen before and those who have been patient and held back will be in a very good position to buy. Those who bought from 2021 onwards....well you better get the butter out the fridge as you are toast for breakfast, dinner and tea unless you have plenty of cash to weather the storm!
@@saelaird your point about sacrificing living standards or area is just plain wrong. I don't know where you get this nonsense from. Not all landlords are on mortgages either, and some of them want to keep the best tenants even if it means less profit. You have a fixed idea in your head that everything is a certain way for every situation, and it just isn't.
@DavidJames-ms6rt I bought in 2019, so I'm not concerned.
Those who bought after 2021 are more at risk. But lending criteria has been lore robust and strict for a while now. I don't see mass repossessions coming, that's for sure.
Houses won't get cheaper (not enough being built), but wages will steadily rise to deflate the value somewhat. Just my take.
If buying is well within your budget, you should, that's all I'm saying.
April sees an almost 10% increase in the minimum wage, will directly impact service industry, inflation up again, just watch.
Also, a lot of companies won't want to pay people the going rate leading to further job losses and/or reduction of hours.
Why would rates go down? They aren’t even ‘high’ historically no matter how many times they keep trying to say it and make it true.
Errr I don't know, perhaps because there's a PENDING WAR and our government are currently scouting for army recruits to join the war!!
Banks make money with mortgages. The past year they were selling less mortgages so they were forced to compete and lower the rates to attract customers. The season has changed and there are more people asking for a mortgage, so rates go up.
The most important factor for house prices is full employment and stable jobs.
do you think that the Bank of England is currently not including any potential war in Iran in the forecast? judging by the usual United States rhetoric, a war seems pretty much inevitable. that would wreck pretty much all the optimistic forecast we have heard about the UK economy.
Exspect wars to exspaned the middle east to light up like Blackpool elumanations March we will see a rate cuts don't listen to this guy intrest rates were designed to crush small businesses and consumers inflation won't go back to 2 percent banks are insolvent no deals no deposits and no loans when rates go up again it will be market driven look at what the federal reserve does if they cut the bank of England and the ECB will cut aswell if they wanted to beat inflation we would have seen base rates at 12 percent get ready for a credit freeze event watch the debt market this is the driver of the market
You could have made this video in 10 words “The Bank of England don’t know what they are doing”
I don't know why people expect a rate cut. 5% is low historically.
It is low historically but house price are massively over priced. Me and my wife work approximately 105 hours a week and we only have a 3 bed semi. We have no kids and we don't owe anyone anything other than the mortgage. We still can't afford to upgrade to a detached house as we would be looking at over 2k a month on mortgage payments
Irrelevant, Fed has been hinting at rate cuts, markets expect May/June for the first one. BoE will follow. Simples. Also 'Mr Bailey previously told Sky News that he expects its next move to be a cut'...
@@maffseds "I'm effed so I'll believe anything that gives me hope"
@@DamienWalter Why do you think I want rate cuts? I bought 5 years ago and have no plans to sell, so the short-term price of my house doesn't mean anything and I'll always be in pos equity... I'm earning more of savings and things are better, its just obvious that rate cuts are imminent.
It will continue like this until middle of 2025
The bank of England will be too late with cuts just like they were too late in reading rates.
England's economy is based on imports and Global energy and food costs. BoE will leave it too late and crash the UK economy.
We always follow America.
We are following them, yet their economy is doing great and we are fucked.
@@nikolayivanov6373the US economy is absolutely completely and utterly not doing great
@@Paul-zu2hfUS is booming, I’ve got so many projects out there at the moment, hardly any in Asia.
@@nikolayivanov6373 The US economy is pretty dire despite what they're trying to lead people to believe. Mass layoffs continue, small businesses closing, food shortages, continuous repossessions. Property listings have been listed for months in some states. Brace yourself guys, because what happens in the US, always filters through to the UK.
Purchase still the same.
2-year fixed
60 LTV Halifax 4.17%
70 LTV Santander UK Plc 4.35%
80 LTV Halifax 4.57%
90 LTV Halifax 4.89%
6th February
Uswich/mortgages
Interest rates should be higher! They were never meant to stay so low - so long! Those who've had a mortgage for years must be loaded and have a nice hefty savings balance, with such historic lows!
It's the people who bought property in the last few years who will suffer in the coming years, when all the layoffs start happening / recession if not a depression to come & the free money drying up!
Personally I'm looking forward to see all those smug faces who've been saying, prices will never drop!
Another person hoping for the downfall of others, it’s the UK way. I bet you celebrate when your salary is a few thousand higher than your best friend too
Not really ,generally , longer you had a house , cheaper it was .
Less than half of eq rent.
We are waiting for the forced sellers. Prices will stick until people 'have' to sell.
why those bought property in the last few years will suffer in the coming years?
@@ayres6727 They bought at the top of the market & will be in negative equity, soon enough. Just hope they don't intend to move for many years, then they potentially could be ok!
My daughter works in an estate agents in Leeds, she is saying business is busy….really busy.
Could it be supply and demand for mortgages, not much business before Christmas, banks need to sell mortgages.
Demand is now high, so rates go up.
demand for what? should we buy houses or not?
@@ayres6727 The housing market is seasonal. The high season is starting again. There is more demand for houses (then, more demand for mortgages). Banks make money with mortgages. When the demand for mortgages was low, banks were forced to compete and lower the rate to sell any. Now the demand is ramping up again, so the rate goes up.
We are fed the BS on a daily basis when it comes to any Financial markets, Housing, Stock Market, Company Earnings etc/ etc. 2024 and 2025 is going to be a death by a thousand cuts......tread carefully when it comes to borrowing, (if you can find it) in the next 2 years, unless you like a world of pain!!!
Meanwhile in Manchester houses are selling like hotcakes.
Have you bought your 3 bed house with a garage and pony for 100k yet?
@healthiswealth6797 I said the same thing last year
They know that inflation will Yoyo, BOE may have to increase rates. There is no rush to buy a house atmo.
People may be pricing in interest rate cuts to much. If the bond market auctions start having no bids on them which is becoming increasingly likely then the fed and bank of England will be FORCED to raise rates by the market. They will be dictated to by the market and not the other way round. This has happened before when the bank of England actually raised rates twice in one day with the famous black Wednesday
The BoE should not consider cutting rates until they believe that inflation might fall below 2%.
Given their obvious inability to understand inflation anything could happen to the base rate.
Just a reminder - he has been renting and probably spent at least £10k so far waiting for a crash that'll never happen? Whereas could've just got a mortgage on high rates and wouldn't have overpaid in interest by anywhere near this amount..
He could also have a nice deposit sat in a high interest savings account...... That will counteract the 10k rent to some extent!
He could have also invested in crypto which gives much higher gains, than any devaluing housing market!
You don't have to come up with some stupid reminders that nobody needs...You are clearly clueless. UK houses are a falling asset. You can invest in the worst company somewhere and still get a better return for your money...
should we buy or not? @@Bubbles77418
@@ayres6727all depends on your situation! If you need to, can afford it and don't intend to sell up again anytime soon, then yes........ If you can wait, then I think that would be the best option. I'm not Mystic Meg though so 😂😂
From what I've heard May / June will be the first cuts.
How long does it typically take from when you agree a sale to when you lock in a mortgage deal?
You mean agree to buy? The rate is locked when your broker submits the application
@RobertGillontheinterweb So if you're part of a chain, do you normally submit the application on day 1, or do you wait for the chain to complete? I don't really know that much about UK property.
@@craptacular8282 if you are the bottom of a chain you will start your purchase process first, you will get your agreement in principle, sort a solicitor out, agree to buy, submit your mortgage application, pay search fees with solicitor when they receive draft contracts, receive mortgage offer, solicitor makes enquiries, usually all in the first month, You’ll then wait for your seller to get themselves organised and if they are buying onward you’ll have to wait for their seller and so on.
Lol they'll only lend me 80k even with a 20k deposit and a mortgage free (admittedly small) house to sell so it's all redundant till house prices return to the affordability of the 80s and 90s, so.... Never.
And if it's out of reach for me with those assets at my disposal, then I don't get how anyone is buying anything new let alone moving up the non existent ladder.
What's your annual income?
@@saelaird not comfortable sharing that on open platform but household income is above UK average of 35k but below the point anyone is over base rate income tax, and the existing house is worth between 125-135k.
@jezlawrence720 I can't understand the 80k limit in that case. That seems insanely low.
I'm not unhappy about it, that's a sensible amount to loan someone in my situation based on repayment amounts Vs monthly income: 2-3x salary or so.
What's insane is that housing has got to the point where 5x salary or higher isn't enough to afford a home.
So I'm hoping it's a sign of the banks stopping their 30 year march of recklessness quite honestly. House prices need to come down. They just do.
@jezlawrence720 I'm firmly of the view that property prices vs overall wealth is about right.
The issue is affordability for folks on roughly the median salary. It's the UKs relatively low salaries vs property prices that hurt everyone so badly. I agree, it's insane.
I personally think the market will stagnate, with wages gradually rising by perhaps 10% over 4 years to deflate relative property value and enhance affordability. Just my tuppence.
housing market will see a 22% correction over the next 18months
Downward correction😂
Absolute rubbish...there is plenty of money pouring in from abroad to maintain the prices and with net immigration high there will always be a housing shortage. So the only correction will be in your predictions
@@countersmart I’m so sorry I don’t mean to offend you. I assume you own property in the uk. I am a Dubai resident and I invest into property in different countries. I am currently waiting for the correction before investing. Now is not a good time for me to add to my portfolio. Sometimes in life we must be able to see what is in front of us. Over 10 years things should be okay my friend
🤣🤣
Couldn’t be further from the truth.
Mortgages should be fixed for the full term of the mortgage. We should follow America and have 30 year Mortgages. This would protect home owners from Interest rate volatility.
Nope. The opposite. Fixed rate mortgages should be made illegal so that rate changes affect everyone together at the same time. It would be easier to adjust rates without a lag and changes wouldn't need to be so severe.
@@Derek-Trotter rates still haven't affected, what, half of mortgage holders yet? Many people still on sub 2%. Extremely difficult to predict where rates should be to take the heat of inflation. That's not stable, overshooting, undershooting, etc.
@@Derek-Trotter well, true. We can both agree on that, but I'm not sure it makes any difference to my point. If the financial system responds almost instantaneously to rate changes it would be way, way easier to configure.
Read the full headline, 2:26 up by 0.3 % WOW, lets make a video on that BIG news.
If the BoE moved rates by 0.25% then it would be reported everywhere.
When mortgages were “supposed” to be coming down, any rise is significant.
Yes, but the rates are still below 4%. Still waiting for the 30% drop!!!
@@FazeredTubeMortgage rates didn't "supposedly" come down, they came down *for real*. From the 6-6.5% that was, you can now find sub-4% mortgages, with the lowest at 3.84%.
Personally I think rate could go up if inflation is not down by q2 .
And they will only reduce once they see 2% target is achieved at leat for 2-3 months .
would you buy now or wait
100% wait...
Absolutely wait.
Thankyou guys bjt jusy worried about cash in bank v bricks and mortar
@@iplaywaytoomuchwhy would you wait?
@@yowhaatsup Clueless?
The swap rate graph is for US . I’ve made the same mistake before! But they largely follow the same movements
Shhh worry you don’t want facts getting in the way of a good story
UK Finance has called for a new Help to Buy scheme and higher property purchase limits on Lifetime ISAs in its submission to the Chancellor ahead of the Spring Budget🚀
If theres not a nominal reduction of atleast 10% in the completed houses data in 6 months time, all the bears have to give up.
5 year fix is lwss than a 2 year fix, that tells you what u need to know
Get the balls and stick to your initial opinion that prices are slowly crashing. You will be much more credible than flip flopping all the time. I'm sticking to my firm conviction that whoever bought at the peak in 2022 will be truly fucked up and I'm already seeing this...
As a young person earning 42k, I’m not buying a house until I can afford to buy out right up north. That will still take me 15 years. Any of you southerners valuing your standard houses above 300k, can I ask who you think you’ll sell them too? Nah thanks, I’m good with my £500pm all bills included.
Literally cheaper than the interest I’d pay haha
I’m with you,look at the recent data on company insolvencies,it’s starting
Nonsense unless you borrowed too much and didn't leave a little room with your expenses. Most will changes to spending to accommodate a hike in their mortgages.
Maybe he’s had second thoughts about his house purchase 😉
1% here or there, you still need house to live in . Just spend less on car , clothes, etc . Long term investment
Long term depreciating asset, you ain't seen nothing yet!
You don't seem to have a clue about investments buddy. UK houses are a falling asset...Liability not an asset, to be more precise...
Uk can’t afford to have people losing their homes and on streets because they can’t afford the mortgages. Housing shortage will keep house prices steady.
@@harjbachra24 Keep on believing that! Government is bankrupt and won't be coming to help, people are already pretty much homeless and living in vans / tents & cars. Wake up & look around!
Nothing he is mentioning is a shock to me exspect the rates to be cut in March there is going to be a debt market meltdown banks are insolvent no deals no deposits and no loans im Laughing at all of this
Interesting, thanks
Absolutely dying for a drop you are just face it you’ve been predicting it for about three years now it still hasn’t happened and it’s not going to move on mate. Play a different tune. It’s boring.
@healthiswealth6797 It’s just fear porn. And people lap it up yeah house prices might go stagnant or might creep down but this house price Crash is just a load of rubbish.
It will cool for a few years and wages will go up to cover it. Those prices are gone for good same with low interest rates this is the new normal.
"Shock" , of course for the greedy.
go and buy a house already. give your landlord notice
So many hate watchers @honestmoney 😅 I don’t get why people continuously watch your videos, only to ridicule you in your comment section. If it doesn’t apply, let it fly! 🦅
They're delusional! Crapping themselves as their properties devalue by the day & continue to do so, for years ahead 👍
blablabla
Bladi bla.
Wait till the increase in the Minimum wage feeds in
Then the layoffs, will really begin!
@@andrewtaylor6737 Yes, without a shadow of doubt. So many companies won't want to pay the going rate.
Supply And Demand will dictate house prices, and a extra 6m over 10 years house prices will only go up
Not that simple. depends what people can afford. always goes in cycles.
That theory has already been disproved,even right now their are more houses for sale than being bought
🤣🤣
Rob Stewart uploaded a great video earlier today. Worth a watch folks! The reverse property "crash". Good stuff 💪
Also you state that everyone is predicting that interest rates will fall at the start of this year that is absolutely BS nobody has said that every predictor I have read he said the interest rate are going to stay where they are for the foreseeable and begin to come down the back end of this year you talk rubbishto fit a narrative
🫡🇺🇸🇬🇧
its a mess just like your views and all you vlogs
thats harsh
Someone seems to be hurting with high mortgage, losing shirt? 😅
Yeah this guy uses long words and speculation to sound like a professional bullshitter ..he's deluded
How do you know? He could be, or maybe you are?
Rob Stewart uploaded a great video earlier today. Worth a watch folks! The reverse property "crash". Good stuff 💪
H is pronounced Aitch, not haitch.
aitch doesnt start with an aitch.
Okay, Dent
first :)
You already missed the bottom of the market innit. All the good houses never lost their nominal value anyway innit!!!
lol, things haven't even started yet! Too much free money, still in the system!!
I think a three or four house next to the sea with close and easy access to a city will lose little to no value.
Those new builds in naff areas will absolutely lose value.
Yes the housing markets falling apart you'll be able to buy ten house's for forty quid ffs
hurts? Over priced house with high mortgage? Lols
People predicting a 30-35% drop don't know what they're talking about. A two bedroom house in Cambridge goes for around £300-325,000. If prices dropped 35% (to around £200,000), a minimum wage couple would be able to comfortably buy a house in the centre of Cambridge with a 5%-7% deposit. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for affordable housing and I'd be very, very happy if people could live comfortably. But Cambridge is a city with high paying jobs and a lot of demand for houses. A 30-35% drop ain't gonna happen. Also, in 2008 prices dropped "only" 20%. It was a worldwide recession. It got the name of "the great recession". Whatever will happen to the UK we won't see a crisis comparable with 2008. So, no. Not gonna crash.
@@mneri You may be right of you may not be. 30%-35% includes inflation or nominal terms. With inflation up 20% over the last 3 years and the house price down 10% makes up 30% fall. Also, high interest rate has something to say about perpetual house price increases as well. It will all be.come clear in few years. House prices do not crash they drag and drag over few years.
Interesting, thanks