Hayes be real. Lifetime Pirate fan born in Pittsburgh. Played semi-pro until I was 27 yo. Dude rox: hits, runs the bases and his head is always on straight. Total gamer. : ::
I think a huge part of him being able to stick around long enough to compile those career stats revolves around him being able to hit enough to justify putting him in the lineup every day. I'm not suggesting he isn't a good hitter, but traditionally third base is a place where you have a big bat. Elite defense is a plus but not a necessity to play there. I think it was Graig Nettles that said "all you need to play third base is a strong chest and a strong arm"; translation: knock the ball down and make the throw. I LOVE to see superior defense played at third, but it just isn't at a premium the way it is at catcher, short, and second. If the Pirates come up with a huge bat that can play well at third (but not lights out defense like Hayes) he may be in danger of getting moved. Stranger things have happened.
I would be more sympathetic to this comment if it at all described his bat, but it simply does not. His exit velocity is in the top 7% of the league and all of his expected batting stats are above 50% minus his OBP which is 49%. He's had some unlucky line outs, a few too many balls on the ground, and some chasing issues. Can't excuse the chasing but the lineouts he can't fix and the groundouts he already started to fix last season which is why we started seeing him hitting homeruns again. Plus, not only that, but there really is no one in the system to really challenge him for real at third base. Even if he somehow did have a drop off in the bat and started to be a below average hitter? I am talking about someone who hits better than 35-45% of hitters (because realistically that is his floor) you think that the lineup who is full of 20+ homerun potential players can't take the hit? With this pitching staff who needs all the help that they can get? I just do not believe that there is world where he isn't the starting third baseman for the next 6 years at least barring and major injury, or trade involving him leaving. For that to even be a conversation, let alone make it a sure-fire situation, countless things would have to happen that simply are not likely. Going from most likely to least, Cruz will have to live up to his hype and fully recover from his ankle surgery to ensure that he is at least average at SS, Peguero (most likely) or Nick would have to become a definitive top 10 second baseman in the league while avoiding being traded, and Termarr would have to take a huge leap defensively, become a top 20 hitter in the league, and switch over to third base while all having to do this simultaneously within the next two years. If that were to not happen within the next two years by the time Termarr gets called up to the majors, and becomes a starter, then one of the middle infield positions would open up for him whether that be through trade or benching. That is the most realistic and practical was Hayes would be dethroned at third base and just do not believe that is at all likely to all happen and happen within the time frame that it would need to be done.
Numbers are one thing, but you gotta see this guy play live. I’m 55 years old and I’ve never seen anything like it. I live in Pittsburgh and watch games at PNC Park but this isn’t the bias. I’d rather watch the St. Louis Cardinals any day of the week nonetheless - he’s amazing.
This was a great vid, very well detailed a thought out and I love the clips thrown in. My thoughts on Hayes however: The possibility of everything going perfect for Ke'Bryan is nearly impossible. Although it's a phenomenal run for him stealing the Gold Glove at 3rd base in the Nation League, there are so events that happen in a career that effect a player's defensive viability. Age, injuries, wanting to become more productive offensively, there's a host of things that effect the defensive quality over time. He'll definitely be a 3rd base wizard for a long time, but stats and trajectory doesn't account for the dynamic reality of sport and life. My guess is that Brooks is gonna keep his record...perhaps indefinitely. The level of consistency comes close to perfection. We'll have to wait and see if Ke'Bryan can maintain his next-level defense or if he becomes another shining star that burns out before they could fully blossom.
good friend of the hayes family and worked out with the guy hes a stud on the diamond. ever talk to his dad of brother he made them look bad when it came to fielding. They may also talk bad about his hitting but they will defend his fielding with their lives
using dWAR as the basis for a current player vs. and old-time player is like comparing apples to... not oranges, but let's go with pears. It's about as good as we can do for data, but we still need to remember that the data set is very different. We have three distinct (so far) eras for dWAR calculations: Total Zone Run data for Pre-1953 (which is the first season that gives us comprehensive play by play data for all MLB games), 1953-2003 are made for Total Zone Runs (much more reliable than when we don't have the PBP data), and 2003-present for which we have Defensive Runs Saved. I suspect that baseball reference will eventually adapt to incorporate statcast data (like Fangraphs has). bWAR uses DRS for its defensive component when it can, making using both numbers a bit redundant. We know Total Zone Runs is inferior. It's also important to note that Ke'Bryan debuted much closer to his prime years than Brooks Robinson did--Brooks had over 450 games under his belt before his age 23 season (which is when Ke'Bryan debuted). For Hayes to reach that 2800 games, he'd not only have to be healthy, he'd have to play well into his 40s. By the way Brooks still put up 6 TZR in only 15 games at age 40, his last year.
Not a bad vid idea and I think Hayes is excellent - but I think that the fact that there are several other players that had extremely similar (if not better) defensive starts to their career just in recent history alone kind of takes strength away from the historic argument. His play is excellent, but it’s not historic if we’ve seen it several times before. It won’t be historic until he can cross the threshold that others couldn’t (Chapman, arenado, beltre, Longo…)
Well, as soon as enough people figure out he’s good, Nutting will realize that he doesn’t want to pay for him, so he’ll have an amazing career somewhere else. Thanks in advance, Bob.
The guy should have had two GG’s by now. Unfortunately for him, Ke’Bryan Hayes wasn’t a good enough hitter to win it in 2022 over Arenado. Many such cases.
@@the_eaglefan and the reason today's sports is making new rules... Most players today will never attain what players in the past have done. He even says what I think is bs... Some of these numbers we won't ever find on older players cause this Stat was not taken. Minute any of these channels say that I'm out
@Gnar_Dogg Mike was the best all around 3rd baseman easily but not defensively. Brooks has the 3rd highest defensive WAR ever and highest for a 3rd baseman ever. Schmidt is the better hitter by a mile but not defensively by any means
Since the Pirates have always been like a minor league showcase for the rest of the league, Nutbag will trade him for cash that he'll never put back into the team. I'd bet by next year.
hayes unfortunately screams to me the vibes of early injury retirerment, or at least major decline after injury.... cant tell you why, but i've been right about this kind of thing a few times before, and only wrong once... i hope this is wrong #2 though! we'll see! he's def got a few more great seasons left in him though
I love all you stat heads do you think you can compare and contrast players throughout the decades but it's impossible no matter how many different defensive metrics you come up with you can't quantify any of them because so much of the game has changed just what they did to major league pitchers this year regarding stolen bases should show you that. Not only that the amount of foul territory when Brooks Robinson and those old timers played was massive compared to today. Let's not forget the whole designated hitter Fiasco let's not forget about the difference of the mound Heights or even the pitch clock of today last year only 10 players in all of Major League Baseball hit 300 that's embarrassing that being said the game has changed but you will never unseat Brooks Robinson or even Ozzie Smith or Greg Maddux
It’s actually embarrassing that you made no mention of Scott Rolen. Him and Arenado are a toss-up for me as far as guys I’ve seen in my lifetime. Hayes is a wizard though
Enough with the nonsense. I don’t care about “Well, based on his start….” Stop. It’s nonsense. Hayes has a LOOOOOOONG way to go before he should be even be mentioned in the same breath as Brooks Robinson. Robinson played 23 years for Christs sake. Hayes has 19 years to go….
Hayes is great defensively. I never see him diving for balls every other game and getting the front of his jersey dirty. He is not web gem highlight guy. That's how good he is.
Statistically, a strike is much more likely to wipe out another season than a pandemic... knock on wood. I think a big part for fielders is not bulking up. A lot of players put on weight as they age. It may help with their power, but not their fielding, and it wears on the knees and slows them down .
KeBryan Hayes is genuinely Elite with the glove, I'm happy more people are seeing how good he is.
If we're going by that Jeff King is better then Hayes
@@brianhandwerk79??? bro is closer to death then playing baseball again
@@titn_6023 still far superior
As a Pirates fan (your sympathies are welcome😂) this makes me smile. Not many good stories about the Buccos lately.
Ur gonna lose him soon😂
We're winning it all this year, don't fret, buddy
I've been a Pirates fan for decades - he is a delight to watch.
it is such a pleasure to watch that man play baseball every game
Aren’t we always witnessing history?
Hayes be real. Lifetime Pirate fan born in Pittsburgh. Played semi-pro until I was 27 yo. Dude rox: hits, runs the bases and his head is always on straight. Total gamer.
: ::
I think a huge part of him being able to stick around long enough to compile those career stats revolves around him being able to hit enough to justify putting him in the lineup every day. I'm not suggesting he isn't a good hitter, but traditionally third base is a place where you have a big bat. Elite defense is a plus but not a necessity to play there. I think it was Graig Nettles that said "all you need to play third base is a strong chest and a strong arm"; translation: knock the ball down and make the throw. I LOVE to see superior defense played at third, but it just isn't at a premium the way it is at catcher, short, and second. If the Pirates come up with a huge bat that can play well at third (but not lights out defense like Hayes) he may be in danger of getting moved. Stranger things have happened.
I would be more sympathetic to this comment if it at all described his bat, but it simply does not. His exit velocity is in the top 7% of the league and all of his expected batting stats are above 50% minus his OBP which is 49%. He's had some unlucky line outs, a few too many balls on the ground, and some chasing issues. Can't excuse the chasing but the lineouts he can't fix and the groundouts he already started to fix last season which is why we started seeing him hitting homeruns again. Plus, not only that, but there really is no one in the system to really challenge him for real at third base. Even if he somehow did have a drop off in the bat and started to be a below average hitter? I am talking about someone who hits better than 35-45% of hitters (because realistically that is his floor) you think that the lineup who is full of 20+ homerun potential players can't take the hit? With this pitching staff who needs all the help that they can get? I just do not believe that there is world where he isn't the starting third baseman for the next 6 years at least barring and major injury, or trade involving him leaving. For that to even be a conversation, let alone make it a sure-fire situation, countless things would have to happen that simply are not likely. Going from most likely to least, Cruz will have to live up to his hype and fully recover from his ankle surgery to ensure that he is at least average at SS, Peguero (most likely) or Nick would have to become a definitive top 10 second baseman in the league while avoiding being traded, and Termarr would have to take a huge leap defensively, become a top 20 hitter in the league, and switch over to third base while all having to do this simultaneously within the next two years. If that were to not happen within the next two years by the time Termarr gets called up to the majors, and becomes a starter, then one of the middle infield positions would open up for him whether that be through trade or benching. That is the most realistic and practical was Hayes would be dethroned at third base and just do not believe that is at all likely to all happen and happen within the time frame that it would need to be done.
Numbers are one thing, but you gotta see this guy play live. I’m 55 years old and I’ve never seen anything like it. I live in Pittsburgh and watch games at PNC Park but this isn’t the bias. I’d rather watch the St. Louis Cardinals any day of the week nonetheless - he’s amazing.
This was a great vid, very well detailed a thought out and I love the clips thrown in.
My thoughts on Hayes however: The possibility of everything going perfect for Ke'Bryan is nearly impossible. Although it's a phenomenal run for him stealing the Gold Glove at 3rd base in the Nation League, there are so events that happen in a career that effect a player's defensive viability. Age, injuries, wanting to become more productive offensively, there's a host of things that effect the defensive quality over time. He'll definitely be a 3rd base wizard for a long time, but stats and trajectory doesn't account for the dynamic reality of sport and life. My guess is that Brooks is gonna keep his record...perhaps indefinitely. The level of consistency comes close to perfection. We'll have to wait and see if Ke'Bryan can maintain his next-level defense or if he becomes another shining star that burns out before they could fully blossom.
speaking of defensive wizards, can we get some shine on Rey Ordoñez?
When I first started following baseball as a kid, that dude was on SportsCenter every night with some sort of wizard move.
His arm could use some work but his glove is amazing
If everything works out the pirates got a steal!
Especially because they signed him too a relatively cheap contract due too the focus on offense these days.
kebryan is the most slept on man in baseball... and we finally got to see some pop at this plate this season
good friend of the hayes family and worked out with the guy hes a stud on the diamond. ever talk to his dad of brother he made them look bad when it came to fielding. They may also talk bad about his hitting but they will defend his fielding with their lives
Great breakdown!
The big "IF" is his ability to do it for 20 years...
I really hope Bob Nutting never sees this video. He will ship him out faster then you can blink.
We’re not shitty anymore!! 😂
using dWAR as the basis for a current player vs. and old-time player is like comparing apples to... not oranges, but let's go with pears. It's about as good as we can do for data, but we still need to remember that the data set is very different. We have three distinct (so far) eras for dWAR calculations: Total Zone Run data for Pre-1953 (which is the first season that gives us comprehensive play by play data for all MLB games), 1953-2003 are made for Total Zone Runs (much more reliable than when we don't have the PBP data), and 2003-present for which we have Defensive Runs Saved. I suspect that baseball reference will eventually adapt to incorporate statcast data (like Fangraphs has).
bWAR uses DRS for its defensive component when it can, making using both numbers a bit redundant. We know Total Zone Runs is inferior. It's also important to note that Ke'Bryan debuted much closer to his prime years than Brooks Robinson did--Brooks had over 450 games under his belt before his age 23 season (which is when Ke'Bryan debuted). For Hayes to reach that 2800 games, he'd not only have to be healthy, he'd have to play well into his 40s. By the way Brooks still put up 6 TZR in only 15 games at age 40, his last year.
Not a bad vid idea and I think Hayes is excellent - but I think that the fact that there are several other players that had extremely similar (if not better) defensive starts to their career just in recent history alone kind of takes strength away from the historic argument. His play is excellent, but it’s not historic if we’ve seen it several times before. It won’t be historic until he can cross the threshold that others couldn’t (Chapman, arenado, beltre, Longo…)
Well, as soon as enough people figure out he’s good, Nutting will realize that he doesn’t want to pay for him, so he’ll have an amazing career somewhere else. Thanks in advance, Bob.
The guy should have had two GG’s by now. Unfortunately for him, Ke’Bryan Hayes wasn’t a good enough hitter to win it in 2022 over Arenado. Many such cases.
Hayes is elite, I just hope the Pirates can give him a contending team or he's gone. Subscribe for you good sir.
Really wish the pirates would sign oneil cruz, could be an amazing left side of the infield
mike schmidt was beast at 3rd.
Yes he was! I feel like if we had the same numbers for him, and others, this story might be very different… But we work with what we’ve got. ✌🏻😎
Mike Schmidt, Brooks Robinson.
No love for THE greatest 3rd basemen of all time Michael Jack Schmidt.... For shame
Yep, he lost me when he didn't mention him. Says I don't need to listen to anything he says as he knows nothing.
@@the_eaglefan and the reason today's sports is making new rules... Most players today will never attain what players in the past have done. He even says what I think is bs... Some of these numbers we won't ever find on older players cause this Stat was not taken. Minute any of these channels say that I'm out
“mike schmidt full name” in google
@@johnnyl6753 what you getting at? Or you not adding to the discussion
@@brianhandwerk79 ur mad
What's the difference between history and actual history? Please explain.
Boggs did it at 3rd and at the plate.
LET'S GO BUCS!!!! HAYES GOLD GLOVE DYNASTY STARTED LAST YEAR!
Forgot about Mike Schmidt's 10 gold gloves
Kinda shocked someone could just not mention Schmidt when talking about the best defensive 3rd baseman of all time.
@@Gnar_Dogg best defensive all time national leaguer home run champ titles only behind babe Ruth
@Gnar_Dogg Mike was the best all around 3rd baseman easily but not defensively. Brooks has the 3rd highest defensive WAR ever and highest for a 3rd baseman ever. Schmidt is the better hitter by a mile but not defensively by any means
Since the Pirates have always been like a minor league showcase for the rest of the league, Nutbag will trade him for cash that he'll never put back into the team. I'd bet by next year.
hayes unfortunately screams to me the vibes of early injury retirerment, or at least major decline after injury.... cant tell you why, but i've been right about this kind of thing a few times before, and only wrong once... i hope this is wrong #2 though! we'll see! he's def got a few more great seasons left in him though
Well Ozzie Smith has the greatest defensive WAR at 44.2 of any MLB player. So we’ll see how he ends up. I think Nolan is still that guy
Good vid, but the constant interjection of random clips stunts the flow of your argument. I'd suggest toning it down a bit
I would be surprised if he does it with the Pirates. As soon as they find gold the Pirates find a way to get rid of it.
I love all you stat heads do you think you can compare and contrast players throughout the decades but it's impossible no matter how many different defensive metrics you come up with you can't quantify any of them because so much of the game has changed just what they did to major league pitchers this year regarding stolen bases should show you that. Not only that the amount of foul territory when Brooks Robinson and those old timers played was massive compared to today. Let's not forget the whole designated hitter Fiasco let's not forget about the difference of the mound Heights or even the pitch clock of today last year only 10 players in all of Major League Baseball hit 300 that's embarrassing that being said the game has changed but you will never unseat Brooks Robinson or even Ozzie Smith or Greg Maddux
Old head lol
I think it’s safe to say that, regardless, a somewhat healthy Hayes is a top 10 defensive 3B easily.
No doubt when all is said and done, if no injuries occur he has a chance to become the best deceive player of all time.
I love Hayes, but doubt he will be able to stay healthy enough to challenge Arrenado or Robinson over the long term.
CRUZ WILL MOST LIKELY BE A YANKEE AFTER PIRATES
Replace the baseball writers as HOF voters already. Bias has no place in baseball. Use the metrics to be fair.
Hell No!
Yes lmao Hayes has better defensive stats and a better glove then any one EVER at third base
He’s not even the best Pirate 3rd baseman. If he can keep up the pace, he might get into the Pie Traynor conversation.
It’s actually embarrassing that you made no mention of Scott Rolen. Him and Arenado are a toss-up for me as far as guys I’ve seen in my lifetime. Hayes is a wizard though
Enough with the nonsense. I don’t care about “Well, based on his start….”
Stop. It’s nonsense.
Hayes has a LOOOOOOONG way to go before he should be even be mentioned in the same breath as Brooks Robinson.
Robinson played 23 years for Christs sake. Hayes has 19 years to go….
Pirates are one of the worst MLB franchises in the history of MLB!!!
Damn, I was confused why Chapman hadn't been signed yet. Was hoping the Dbacks would go after him. Now it makes sense lol
Great content but way too much redundancy for me. This video could’ve been done well in half the time.
Hayes is great defensively. I never see him diving for balls every other game and getting the front of his jersey dirty. He is not web gem highlight guy. That's how good he is.
This didn't age well. Neither did the Pirates.
😂😂😂
Statistically, a strike is much more likely to wipe out another season than a pandemic... knock on wood.
I think a big part for fielders is not bulking up. A lot of players put on weight as they age. It may help with their power, but not their fielding, and it wears on the knees and slows them down .