All pilots know the pit in the stomach that begins anytime you realize that you're not sure where you are, or that fuel is low. One can only imagine how these people felt in the minutes before they ran out of gas over the vast Pacific.
@@DK-gy7ll Probably the other way round. She was known to not listen to Noonan earlier on this trip. Fact is she missed a few airports but they were headed to huge land masses, so being off 10 or 15 miles did not matter early in the trip. Flying to a speck in the world's largest ocean on that last leg of the trip did. When she flew to Paris a few years earlier, she not only missed Paris she missed the whole Country of France landing in North Ireland for crying out loud.
I recall my father and (family) flying a Helio Courier over the frozen tundra between Hay River and Ft. Franklin NWT, Canada in December 1974 it was dark, -40F, head wind of 40 mph we almost ran out of fuel, Dad was navigating with the ADF, everything was white, ground, sky everything, bad visibility, we made it though there was some talk we might be camping on the tundra that night, Dad had the engine leaned out to the max, some stress that night but relief to land in Ft. Franklin and spend the night before continuing to Inuvik.
You are the only one that parallels my own thinking. I have said for years they flew past the island that was south of them by 15 to 25 miles. They ran out of fuel looking for Howland Island. NO Nikumaroro, No Japanese B S either. If I hit the lottery I will start my search East of the island. Problem most daunting is the vast area combined with the extreme depth of the ocean in that area. I was about 12 when a teacher put me onto Amelia and her disappearance, I'm over 80 now and still taking in all the info I can. Thank you for your great deductions. So sad about Fred and Amelia.😪😪😪
Its all about the money and interest in finding out what actually happened 😮, they found the titanic anything is possible it would be nice to finally finish her story they were quite adventurous considering the technology they has access to back then.
@@frankorobinson1540 Ballard had a pretty good idea where the Titanic went down because of the Carpathia, (rescue ship) noted where they picked up the survivors. Plus he had a debris field over a mile long to follow to the ship, in fact, that is how he located it, he found the debris first then followed it. There is no such information on Amelia, no debris field either. I know her plane is near Howland island but it is down 13000 feet plus could be E, W, S , N of that island. The search would be far far different then the Titanic. 😀😀😀😆
In 1964, my ship was on patrol between New Guinea and Howland Island. During our flight, we flew in the vicinity of Earhart's flight and were intercepted by a pilot who was attempting to recreate the Earhart flight.
Your research looks accurate. The issue will be decided when someone searches the ocean floor 25 miles east of Howland Island and finds the aircraft. Excellent job on showing the timeline!!!
The problem is his true course is off. He only used Lae’s 461 mile south and forgot to add Howland 56 miles north. The actual true course is 78.33 degrees.
There's an 8 year old video here on Yu Toob that expert Joe Lodrige's explanation on where Amelia Earhart went missing is given, and he was 7 years old when she went down. He draws a nearly identical conclusion as you but he says she's further southeast along the 157 line because the last signal to Itasca went a little weaker. He puts her at 0 degrees, 10 minutes north by 175 degrees, 55 minutes west, almost due east of Baker Island. Regardless, I think both of you are absolutely correct that she's in the water along that line either east or southeast of Howland. David Jourdan's 2002 & 2005 deep sea searches covered 1200 square miles north, northeast and northwest of Howland and found nothing, so those locations can be eliminated. That only leaves east and southeast of the island as the place she can be.
The.most likely explanation is usually the right one They ran out of fuel and crashed and sunk most of the life saved equipment was left behind because of weight including a raft
It may have drifted some distance before sinking I think as the empty fuel tank's (1200 gal.) have a buoyancy of 9990 lbs but the aircraft weigh's lees than 7000 lbs, It may have taken some time for the fuel tanks to fill with water.
Yup. The teenager in Florida who kept a notebook by her radio heard phantom radio transmissions for 3hrs after the last official transmission and claimed they mentioned water up to their knees and feeling hot and wanting out She mentioned 3S 165E which was likely the last known position beyond Nukumanu, and a number that corresponded well to 158-338 which corresponds well to the last line of bearing of 157-337
He misspoke. He meant 1,800 as was said earlier in the video. Which is close to Ballard's claim (Yes the Ballard who found the Titanic!) That he found her plane in 2000 ft of water.
@paf268 no its 18k, theres s reason they used an unmanned sub and havent gone to the plane yet until later this year. Its actually 16,900 feet. But keep on trying to educate others on topics youre utterly clueless on
It’s a great theory, and definitely more compelling than the Gardner grift, however I think there’s one hurdle that’s hard to get over. The Itasca was producing a huge plume of smoke to help guide the plane in, visually. If Earhart was East of Howland, between the smoke and the rising sun, that plume would have been emblazoned like a mushroom cloud. How could they miss it, particularly if they had made a few N-S runs along the line? This question alone leads me to believe they were still short of the island, and the plume was lost in the glare.
Sunrises and sunsets in that part of the world during different seasons and various natural effects can be extremely deceiving and problematic… people mention ‘cloud cover’ but they don’t mention the variations of weird combined effects that can happen with various other natural processes in the area And Pan Am claims that a person of average sight can only see 39 miles at 1000ft due to the curvature of the Earth
@2.39 Wrong....the signal strength does NOT tell you how close the source of the signal is. I am in the UK and a shortwave radio operator......I often receive S5 signals from Brazil and / or Venezuela while at the same time local stations may only produce S2 or S3 signals. Propagation, frequency and the type of antenna used can all affect the signal strength regardless of the actual distance.
He was not off from the time accuracy. He noted therrors and reset the clock. The reason for error noting is to compensate eg 1 sec per week, which improves the Accuracy. The 2nd system is called dead reckoning. Thats where the errors creep in. The cloud civer blocked the accurate sun fix
If the possible wreck that was recently located is Amelias Lockheed 10 Electra it would be very interesting to see if it lies within your suggested search area.
@@PhilinWaterloo They probably want to keep it as tight secret so no one else gets there before them. And considering what it might be, it is probably wise. There are plunderers with as good tech today. But lets hope we learn that fast.
@@PhilinWaterlooapproximately 100 miles west/northwest of Howland Island. Two theories come up: because of the International date line, Noonan miscalculated their course and flight path which put their aircraft off course to the north. Second theory is that Noonan had correctly charted their flight path, but crosswinds blowing in a westerly direction blew them off course without Earhart and Noonan realizing it until it was too late.
Let me start by saying that I wish both AE and her brave navigator total RIP. The one thing I want the panel and followers to understand is, "you cannot fly "north and south" on a position line if you have NO radio aid/s ahead or behind you" ! It's IMPOSSIBLE. I am talking from my experience of about 25,000 hrs flight time, with roughly 95% as Pilot-in-Command as accumulated from MILITARY (RAF) and civilian airline experience. I was the Squadron Flight Safety Officer on every squadron I was on, and a CAA (UK) Approved Safety Training Instructor. More than 3,000 hrs was spent over the world’s oceans at less than 1000’ on the Avro Shackleton Mk2.2 and Mk3.3 (14 hours airborne was par for the course) and more flying hours doing roughly the same work on the HS NIMROD maritime four-jet. That infamous Position Line so calculated by Mr Noonan (some say in his bedroom on LAE) as 157/337 degrees (true) is all well and good IF it were accurate. Taking a "sunshot" as the sun comes up first thing in the morning is NOT a recommended time ! So it was NOT accurate. A considerable amount of Errors were inherent and were NOT accounted for 1.Acceleration error 2. Index 3. Operator 4. Refraction (in 1937 as it was not accounted for ! Only sun angles above 6 degrees). US Navy demanded using > 10 degrees 5. DIP - not used on a bubble sextant 6. Height > MSL. (at 10,000’ Sun Rise is 10 minutes earlier than a person at sea level would see it). To legitimately use a position-line one must have been 'on' that line at some point during flight - where exactly is not established until you get at least a second position-line with a good 'cut' across that first PL . Moving the first PL along the assumed track MUST involve an accurate GROUND SPEED. I do not think Mr Noonan ever had an accurate enough GS to do that. It has been said he pre-calculated that infamous PL back in his hotel room on LAE. That’s fine, but when it comes to the actual flying on the day with fuel running out, it’s no use flying up and down this invisible line - as it is not a feature on the surface of the sea, nor is it a line of boats on the surface, nor coloured dye, nor a line of buoys showing the way. Unless there’s a tracking aid either ahead or behind when you reach this vital PL you are wasting your time trying to track up and down that PL merely by turning onto 157 degrees or 337. Wind will take its toll on anything you think you have covered ! The ONLY way Mr Noonan could assume he was "on the line" was to have an accurate Ground Speed since his last accurate one derived from a viable 'fix' and then have an ETA for the 157/337 PL which had it’s datum engineered through Howland Island. If the last 'fix' was inaccurate, his G/S was at best a rough estimate; then the move to fly down that PL was NEVER going to work. It’s an IMPOSSIBLE task, ask any certified Pilot who has passed the written plotting exam; better still, ask one who has an Instrument Rating which involved a flying test to prove you can do that job. "Circling" as reported by AE would make any "Airplot" the nav was keeping a complete joke. Flying at 1000' as she reported was purely "eyeball" as she had no Radio Altimeter nor a local QNH to set her pressure altimeter. There are no consistently reliable "fixes" in any of the chart work we know of, nor R/T exchanges, and having flown for 23 hours plus the area where you think you has become ever larger (10% of distance flown). It was suicidal NOT to have planned this properly. Ms Earhart let her sponsors down very badly. I’m afraid both Amelia and Fred were grossly un-prepared for this enormous navigational/endurance task. 1. Rubbish communication planning. 2. Rubbish R/T between air and ship/s. 3. Not having reliable on-board radio aid equipment to get bearings from land bases cost them dearly. 4. Neither crew member knew enough morse code to read simple messages. That’s really stupid. There are so many disturbing facts it beggars belief. Show me hard written evidence that the aircraft completed a proper "Compass swing" after it had its two engines changed at Miami. The whole team overall could not even get a common time base to work from ! It should have been GMT through out, but even the ITASCA radio room was working "local" and not GMT/UTC and AE always used the local time and the nav GMT. Madness. It’s one hellish shame it all turned to worms, so if you are thinking of doing anything like that remember the 6 "P's". Perfect Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance. Miss Earhart had a bad habit of turning in some Piss Poor performances. 1. No reliable compass swing after that Hawaii crash and the disassembled aircraft taken back to the USA. "The tailwheel of the Electra was raised up onto a wheeled 'dolly' so the 'plane would be in the flight attitude as it was rotated during the compass swing. NO mention the engines were running - which is essential for a correct and proper compass swing. 2. She missed the planned destination on that Hawaii to the USA flight (correct airfield eventually !). 3. She used two-way radio on the above flight, so why did she not realise that was her life-line ? 4. She let her pilot’s licence expire ! 15 Oct 1936 - sorted it out, but how silly and unprofessional. 5. She missed their intended landing site at Dakar on the Natal flight, landed 116sm NORTH at St. Louis. She summarised this significant error by saying, "My navigator indicated that we should turn south. Had we done so, a half hour would have brought us to Dakar. But a left turn seemed to me in order and after 50 miles of flying along the coast, we found ourselves at St. Louis, Senegal." That’s the sort of very gash piloting that gets you in deep trouble. She also compounded confusion by using "local time" when GMT was used by her professional navigator. Her ASI was in MPH whilst Fred Noonan was using knots. 6. No chance of D/F on the night/day frequencies (or any in fact !). Horrible decision. 7. No dinghy despite a long over-water flight ! Tch Tch. Inventory List, 26 March 1937 Luke Field, Hawaii. 8. No Intercom, just a bamboo rod and string pulley - madness. 9. T/O from LAE says it all, the aircraft was skimming just above the water till out of sight and never climbed >100’ according to witnesses. Mr JA Collopy - District Superintendent (Civil Aviation). 10. Doing an Airtest and knowing the D/F was not working was unforgivable. 11. How on earth did nobody locate that "lost" trailing aerial on LAE ? Not that it would achieve anything ! 12. The MAP position of Howland was not accurately portrayed: 6 miles west and 1 mile north of true position ! Say no more. 13. She did not even submit an "Accident Report" (Form 87) to the Bureau of Air Commerce after that failed T/O. A month after that crash the Bureau wrote to her (19 April 1937) and reminded her about the $500 fine that could be actioned. A kind "Supervising" Inspector, Mr Emil Williams in Honolulu recommended, "no action should be taken in this instance". Politics ! She had not even thought of taking off during daylight that morning and "delayed take off until there was sufficient light to see clearly". At 05.40 (local) the wx was, ceiling 3000’ wind
First, TIGHAR is the one that says that 157-337 is based on the sun line (67 deg true) which is 11 degrees north of Howland. Second, TIGHAR’s research doesn’t mention magnetic declination near Howland and what the 78 degree true course is converted to a magnetic course on approach to Howland (68.5 degrees). Third, a 67 degree magnetic (76.5 degree true) is approximately 1.5 degrees (80 miles) north of Howland! If you check the math when calculating the true course you will find something interesting. Distance 2556 (miles) or 2221 (nautical miles) and a vertical latitude of 517 miles (Lae 461 miles south of the equator and Howland 56 miles north of the equator). If you use 2556 you get a 78.33 degree true course. Adjust magnetic declination which was 9.49 degrees east (1937) near Howland give you a 68.8 degree magnetic course. If you substitute 2556 for 2221 you will get a 76.54 degree true course. Adjust magnetic declination gives you a 67.05 degree magnetic course! We know that Clarence Williams created the map strips for their flights (1 is in the Purdue archives. Honolulu to Oakland). It’s possible he made a mistake and gave them the wrong directions putting them about 80 miles off track (north). 157-337 could be based on the 67 degree magnetic course!
Our video host also made a mistake when calculating the true course (79.6 degrees). He only used Lae latitude (461 miles) and forgot to add Howland latitude (56 miles).
Nobody could locate the lost antenna on Lae because it was removed from the aircraft in Miami at the request of Earhart. People see a puff of dirt from an airplane taking off on a dirt runway and now it's an antenna falling off. As for Noonan's navigation and errors such as refraction. I'm certain he was well aware of this. He was the best navigator at Pan Am. His navigation only had to get the aircraft with about 25 miles of Howland. The DF steer was to take them the rest of the way. The time zone disparity you mention had a significant impact on the ability to get a DF steer.
Over the past 80+ years people have been pointing the finger at Fred Noonan. He was one of the best in his field. He was also an instructor. I read that flights still use Fred’s information today. There is no proof that Fred made any mistakes. There is also no proof that Earhart made any mistakes, and yet people still point fingers. Everything is all speculation. Most people don’t know that there were 3 people directly involved with the flight. Clarence Williams was the third person. Where is the research on him? He has been known for making mistakes. He put Howland in the wrong location on the map. In 1936 the US navy resurveyed and corrected the mistake. I think more research and fresh eyes would benefit the mystery. Letting TIGHAR have free range is a mistake.
@@twright4263 I’ll certainly agree TIGHAR is a mistake. There is not much that can be done about them except keep reiterating the facts. I agree that Noonan was the best in the business and all indications are he did his job correctly. As for Clarence Williams, his error is immaterial had the Direction Finding equipment worked. As for the DF, the man who built that radio for the World Flight determined afterwards that Earhart had used it incorrectly. Anybody without explicit knowledge of the unit would have made the same operating error.
This is fantastic and I am sure you are right. The TIGHER blow hearts put the aircraft on Gardner island 400 miles sound of Howland, never considering there was not enough fuel to reach Gardner island. also Gardner island was searched 1 week after the plane disappeared and the search never found anything.. The lastest sonar find confirms your brilliant work. I am sure within a year your work will be vindicated.
This is the best guess a to where they actually ended up. All the other theories don't make any sense when you look at the facts. They just didn't have enough fuel to make it to Gardner Island, or any of the other islands people think they wound up on. It's not a glamourous mystery with a fantastic story of survival, just a regular tragic accident, sorry folks, this is reality.
I have read that what doomed this segment of the flight was "poor planning, worse execution." Apparently there had been radio issues earlier in the flight and communication problems ocurred during the critical approach to Howland. They were too far out to see the black smoke pouring from the Itasca and simply went into the sea looking for the island.
Thre is a caveat to your comment, Amelia was not fully trained on using the Bendix receiver to localise the radio signals that the USCGC Itasca was transmitting as an aid to finding Howland Island. That was originally the role that Paul Mantz had taken when Amelia and him had tried to fly around the world starting in California before heading to Hawaii where that attempt ended in a crash. As was pointed out in the cockpit photographs released of the Electra the Bendix receiver was also at head height directly in front of the pilots position and the theory was that Amelia was thrown against it in the ditching and thus knocked unconscious.
As far as I know Amelia did not have a ton of experience flying from inland to inland. Or over a seamas from land mass to land mass. It's much harder to find a tiny island. So this theory does make a lot of sense. My big question is how do we know it was to the north. I also.e this is based on the transmissions the ship reserved and it's location that I do not no so it have to been in a radius of that I would agree
And they just might have. The sonar image of and aircraft that looks similar in dimensions to the Lockheed 10-E Electra that Earhart and Noonan were flying. At a depth at 16,400 ft.
Interesting; I just saw a WW2-era navigator make a case the plane is lying on the bottom of the ocean at 0 10 n 175 55 w - pretty close. He noted Noonan's chronometer was off by 3 seconds, where each second in error represents 10 nautical miles.
I thoroughly believe that she and Noonan made it to Nikumaroro…as evidenced by human remains that were found there that turned out to be female…closely matching the physical measurements of her body. Along with an instrument box that might have held a sextant for navigation and personal items that would have been used by Amelia. Tyger has located pieces of aircraft aluminum just off shore of that location that are a possible match that coming from the Lockheed. I believe that they found the island while looking for Howland Island and ditched the plane on the barrier reef off the coast of Nikumaroro. The evidence is pretty clear. They made it there and died there.
That same heading takes you straight going South South East to Nikumaroro Island. Thee years after her disappearance a British Expedition Ship using the heading given by Earhart arrived there and found; a campsite, a man's shoe, a women's shoe, a Sextant case matching Noonan's type Sextant case, a box of one of Earhart's know drinks, also found and 13 bones and a skull. The bones were taken to a doctor on Fiji's medical school who thought they were to big for her and discarded them. However he kept meticulous records and measurements of the bones. Later the data was examined Richard Jantz Professor Emeritus of Anthropology. He used modern forensics and matched the Bones measurement to a 99% match to Earhart's bone measurements using pictures of her standing next to items of known dimensions. So how did they get to Nikumaroro Island almost 400 miles South South East of Howland Island if they ran out of fuel 25miles off Howland? A very good question! Here's some crazy speculations of mine; I don't think the Electra could have glided that far even with a good tail wind or with a high enough altitude. However if they had a life raft with food and water and the currents and winds were favorable it's possible I guess they could have drifted that far after gliding as far as they could before ditching. I think until the plane is found or bones with DNA we will never know. Thanks for sharing. Best Wishes & Blessings. Keith Noneya
I agree that (Gardener) island is the most compelling argument. I hope to live long enough for the plane to be located… My maternal grandfather was aboard the USS Colorado (BB-45) whose aircraft surveyed the island from the air and noted the signs of recent habitation.
Keith, when the Norwich City (ship wrecked in storm in 1929) was beached on Nikumaroro 11 men died and were buried on that island. The "preponderance" of evidence points that the bones was one of them. The "fool" doctor looked at actual bones then lost them or buried them but now some doctors using "HIS" measurements trust him???? Sorry, no sale. The women's shoe Gillespie of TIGHAR (so called experts on her disappearance) found was two sizes too big for Amelia's feet. Do you buy shoes two sizes too big for yourself?? I know of nobody that does. Amelia's sister said she never bought shoes too large for her. The Sextant box was discarded by a later survey ship in 1939, they even said it belonged to them!! The piece of metal Gillespie found had the wrong pattern of rivet holes then her Electra, it is more likely from a DC 47 tests' have shown. There is no evidence whatsoever that she took a case of her favorite drink along, in fact, evidence, because of weight concerns. she more likely DID NOT. The freckle cream jar was one of over 600,000 produced by that company and most likely left by a later inhabitant of Nikumaroro. After Gillespie of TIGHAR spent 6 trips and over 6 million dollars looking for evidence of her being a castaway on Nikumaroro he has "NOT" produced one "iota" of concrete proof she was ever there, what he did find has long been DEBUNKED!! His Group TIGHAR looks there because it's too difficult to look in a thousand square mile area around Howland Island in 13000 feet of water for a plane. Do your own research, (AS I DID) B 4 buying into "SPECULATION".😝😝😝
Nikumaroro has been thoroughly debunked. Lots of plausible reasons all those things were found, mainly that there have been people on that island. This is pseudo science and not sincere.
Please address the radio transmissions that were heard by several people, even airline stations, that direction finding from three stations pointed to Gardner island. The plane would have had to be intact, in order to send those messages, over a course of a few days.
The doctor on Fiji, Dr. Hoodless determined the bones to be of a middle aged man of Polynesian descent, 5’ 5” tall. Jantz was hired by a certain organization that has a vested interest in keeping the Nikumaroro story alive. Somehow he determined , from the written notes, the bones to be a woman , 5’ 8” , of European descent. As for any other hypotheses, keep in mind Gardner is 400 miles from Howland.
You may be right. I think crashing in the ocean is most likely what happened. I do wonder what Noonan's plan was if they missed the Island .... something I suspect he would have been concerned with . Both of them would know the danger... I would think they shared their plan a head of time. For me.. it's finding their remains ...not who is right.
A radio operator also did an analysis. The video is also on RUclips. Is this video based on that analysis? I remember him putting the area as a bit more SE of the island towards the outer band of the yellow search area. I would live to see Ocean Explorer dedicate some time to scanning this area. It makes the most sense.
Searching in that area at that depth would be so expensive. Just to solve a mystery is one reason ; if it were a plane full of gold it would be another reason. I guess it will remain a mystery.
There are people that search for WWII warship wrecks to pinpoint their locations and give a final sense of closure to any remaining family members of the missing crew members. It’s not unrealistic to hope that someday one of those search teams will devote some time to finding this plane. The Titanic was found in this manner, the Navy paid Dr. Ballard to find and survey two lost submarine wrecks and there were about two weeks of search time funding that could be dedicated to finding Titanic, and they did, in eight days. An expedition like the one that located Titanic would be the most probable way to fund a search for Earhart’s plane.
It's a shame Paul Allen is no longer alive. After his death his luxury yacht/research ship RV Petrel was sold. I'm sure he would've conducted the search.
Yes and no …yes it’s very expensive…probably about a million a day in mostly fuel, not counting crew and consumables etc but no it’s relatively easily doable because NOAA does fisheries surveys in the area and allows piggy back science parties for various projects long and short term
I just wanted to ask you if you have ever read EARHART'S FLIGHT INTO YESTERDAY by Captain Laurance Safford, Safford was one of the key people in the U.S. Navy's efforts to intercept and decode Japanese radio traffic during WW2 so he was very familiar with 1930's radio technology. He passed away in 1973 and supposedly the manuscript was saved from the trash can at his home. Check the wiki entry for his name - his first name is spelled Laurance rather than with a w. If you haven't read it I thought it might be of interest to you. : )
Factoid: At an altitude of 1,000 feet, Howland island should have been viable from 38 miles away. (86 miles from 5,000') Weather conditions notwithstanding.
What’s more is that the Itasca was purposely belching out copious amounts of smoke as a signal to help guide them in, WHICH, if they were East of Howland, the smoke cloud would have been emblazoned by the rising sun, and blatantly obvious. They could possibility have missed the island from 30 miles away, as it was just a speck, but the plume would have been unmistakable. So, unless they only ran one N-S pass while East of Howland, AND were already well North or South of the island before the plume appeared, it’s far more likely they were still short of Howland, where the smoke could have been lost in the glare.
Not always. Remember that in 1942 the Japanese search planes flew over and their trained military pilots missed Enterprise, Hornet, and their escorts near Midway...
Fair enough. But in that case they didn't have an exact position of the US ships, while the exact position of howland island was known to AE. On the other hand, when the US pilots got within 80 miles of the enemy at Midway, they did find them. I only have 800 hours logged, but I have always found that when looking for something, the higher the better. (In this case airports) @@thatguyinelnorte
@@lnchgj. According to pilots who regularly fly the Pacific, Howland would have been very difficult to spot beyond about 12 miles. The island is flat. About 6 feet above sea level. It had no wide beach areas like Wake or Midway. The beach sand reflects light well. The terrain is a brownish green and looks much like the ocean at a distance. The 38 miles does not consider any ocean haze, color, or refraction. Just a theoretical limit in a perfect environment. You didn’t say how much of your 800 hours was over ocean. I can tell you landmarks are much easier to see than on the ocean.
Very interesting, I wonder what would be left of aluminum after 90 years. Navigating and radio in 1930's Pacific Ocean was not very exact. Getting off course was common.
Sounds feasible. I just returned from New Zealand looking at boats for search mission I want to put together. I will buy the boat, will be seeking donations for sonar equipment and expenses.
You realise that this will take millions of dollars, one author who researched the incisent reckoned the bill would be about $12-$14 million US dollars to survey the area as the depth is extreme?
Sadly that may have been one of the reasons that her former navigator quit after Earhart crashed the Lockheed Electra in Hawaii before her attempt at flying around the world. Fred Noonan was a capable navigator, but nowhere near as good as his predecessor.
I wonder if the smoke from the Itasca might have caused the ship and the island to be invisible to the plane. I wonder what exactly was being burned to create the signal.
After reading through many of the comments, a few make a valid point about how hard it would be to locate a plane so small in such a vast area of ocean floor. We must consider the depth in the search area, the other 'WW2 junk' that litters the ocean floor there, and the possibility that the wreckage could be covered up by now of whatever the ocean floor is made of there. Sand, mud, ?. It would be a monumental task.
Have at it. Just take a small dinghy and a fishing rod with 19,000 feet of line with a GoPro tied on the end. Attach a little waterproof LED light, toss it in the water until it hits bottom. Pull it up two feet and use the dinghy to circle around a bit. Reel the camera back up and check your memory card. Mystery solved. Simple.
■■■■■■■■■■■ In 1936 a Navy book gave two locations for Howland. The coordinates are about 9 miles apart. N0° 49' (00)", W176° 43' 09" & N0° 53', W176° 35'. These are in "AMERICAN PRACTICAL NAVIGATOR" on pages 340 & 401. Its coordinates for Gardner were S4° 37' 42", W174° 40' 18". Page 341 of the same edition.
What grips me is they herd sos radio calls from her a few days later and 11:21 a piece of a plane from a Electra was found on some island, she must have landed somewhere but not Holland island
No SOS signals were ever heard. Searchers were transmitting on her radio frequency, using her aircraft call sign. These were mistaken as being from Earhart, mostly by the story hungry Press listening in Hawaii. That piece of metal could have come from just about any aircraft. Keep in mind a World War took place before that piece of metal was found. Gardner island was used for a LORAN station during WWII. Who knows what or how many aircraft were there for various reasons. Tighar posted dimensions of that piece of metal and it was compared to a Lockheed 10E in the US. No match. It was a near perfect match for the wing skin on a PBY. Tighar has a story to sell. I do mean sell. $$
There have been surveys there but for different missions such as fisheries Basically it would be too expensive and time and resource consuming for most people to make a concerted effort
I found this theory very interesting and by far the most believable of all the current "guesses". One thing those who have not flown over, much less searched for anything in the huge expanse of the Pacific is, how damn difficult Howland would be to spot, especially with the glare of the early morning sun in your eyes, and with the island possibly _behind_ you. Sad for Amelia and Fred, may they rest in peace.
Some issues with your analysis. Indicated airspeed is not a good indication of ground speed nor distance covered. If they were flying into a headwind of 35 mph at their altitude, they would not have been near the island. Further, there is no evidence of radio signal strength beyond descriptions of ’fair, and ‘good’. And radio signal strength is NOT a reliable indication of distance because of the effect of the ionosphere. People in Hawaii have picked up radio signals clear as day from Russia. The primary reason why I doubt your estimate of signal strength can be found in photos of the plane. See that circular antenna sticking up from the fuselage? That is a radio bearing finder. Noonan’s principal tool for navigation and the entire reason there was a cutter on station broadcasting a signal. There would be no reason for the plane to circle anywhere near the island because as the plane passed the cutter, the bearing of their radio homing signal would have dramatically changed, allowing Noonen to triangulate a dead accurate location for the ship and the island. Literally just two readings 5 minutes apart would have told them exactly where the ship was if they were flying past it. ( This is why during WWII ships in a fleet sailed close enough to one another to signal each other thru shutter lamps. So they would not broadcast their locations. ) That Earhart reported that they could not get a fix indicates that they had to be so far away as to not have a strong signal and/or be unable to read a significant difference in bearing. ( radio coms at extreme distances can be clear as a bell on one end, while the other end has poor reception, again, depending on quirks of the atmosphere and ionosphere) That they stated they were circling is an indication that they were trying to change their orientation to the ship’s radio signal to see if they could get a second, differing bearing. That is, if their course just so happened to be directly toward the ship, they would be unable to determine a triangulation. So by turning 90 degrees they are moving the aircraft perpendicular to their last bearing to see if they can get a second bearing with a different value. The fact that they turned to do some back and forth was not so they were perpendicular to the sunrise, which happens at different times depending on altitude. What they did was turn 90 degrees to their prior heading. This strongly suggests that multiple readings of bearing on the cutter’s signal were almost identical, and that indicated they were flying very close to directly toward the cutter, and so every reading was so close to the same as to offer no range info. They turned and flew for a while 90 degrees to that to see if they got a different bearing for estimating range. If they turned North again so soon it could mean they got a range, and it was too far away to make on remaining fuel. Or it could mean they saw no significant change in bearing which meant either they could not get a good signal, or were so far away from the cutter that flying 50 miles did not appreciably change their bearing. To me the evidence suggests they were either far short of the ship, but flying along a direct bearing for it. Or they were so far away that the signal was not strong enough to get a meaningful change of radio bearing. Again, had they flown past the broadcasting cutter at that close a range, their radio direction finder would have given them a solid direction and range to the cutter and they would have immediately broadcast their confirmation and flown straight toward it.
@@raoulcruz4404 Which is the same as saying you have no argument. I had a radio operator’s certificate from the Air Force. They were using a radio direction finder to triangulate the location of the island. Had they flown PAST the island they would have gotten a good enough fix to know the exact location of the cutter. Period. The only reason to change heading 90 degrees from the bearing they had plotted to the island was if they were seeing NO change in radio direction bearing from the cutter, which would tell them they were heading in the right direction, but NOT how far away they were. A radio direction finder gives you a fair but not perfect bearing, based upon your perception of radio signal strength and clarity. When I was in the Civil Air Patrol we used to practice this in a game called Red Fox/ Blue Fox. Three cars, Two with a direction finding antenna and the other with a transmitter. The transmitter had to stop and transmit for 1 minute every 15 minutes. The other two could take bearings and consult with one another via radio, using a map, to fix the transmitter’s location, and to try and coordinate our movements such that we could box in the Red Fox on a stretch of road with one of us on either side and no road the Red Fox could turn onto to escape. This is how Noonan was using that circular antenna on the Lockheed to try and locate the island and its why there was a cutter there broadcasting regularly. ETA- in Red Fox/ Blue Fox, we could derive a more accurate location in coordinating two separate bearings from two receivers because we could know they had to be on a road surface or parking lot. So where our bearing plots crossed, we could identify the nearest road to that location, and their possible routes from that point.
@@christopherpardell4418 Earhart was using the DF equipment incorrectly. She stated unable to get a bearing. Later investigation found out why. Same reason she couldn’t get a “ minimum “ on the test flight at Lae a few days earlier. I know how DF works. Used it myself while flying. But your analysis is moot because she was using the one-off prototype Bendix incorrectly. The man who built that radio determined what she was doing wrong afterwards. By the way, I was in the CAP also. I know about DF searches.
@@raoulcruz4404 What you are saying is news to me. From what Ive read Noonan did the navigating… But what kind of fool would take off to try and find a tiny island based on a radio bearing with a direction finding system that wasn’t working? Seems if it wasn’t working a few days prior to the hardest leg that they would have held up until they had it figured out. What exactly did they do ‘wrong’ in operating it? And Their radio communications seem unclear. Could they actually not get a bearing? In that there was no peak reception? Or does that mean they could not get a Change in bearing from which to determine a distance and direction? Again, it seems to me that being unable to get a bearing at all means they could have ended up anywhere. If the thing was working and they could not get a bearing the signal would have had to have been too weak, meaning they were nowhere near the island, far from flying past missing it by a hundred miles. If they changed course at nearly a right angle to their former bearing, to me the only possible reason to do that is that the bearings they were getting were all too similar and they were trying to get a second convergent reading. You are suggesting they were trying to fly perpendicular to the imminent sunrise to Figure out their longitude based upon an ephemeris showing sunrise time at Howland island ?
@@christopherpardell4418 I’m using my iPhone so it’s difficult to type a long message. But here goes: On the test flight at Lae , Amelia could not get a minimum or null while rotating the loop antenna. She dismissed it as being to close to the powerful radio station. This is known from testimony from the station manager whom AE conferred with often. I think she was pressured to get on with the flight because she was running out of money. Stated so in a telegram to Putnam. In the vicinity of Howland she couldn’t get a minimum (antenna null) either. her misuse of the DF coupler and was compounded because her preplanned radio schedule was 15 minutes different from Itasca. They were using different time zones. Drawing on a piece of paper I can explain how she misused the DF. The simplest but incomplete explanation is the band selector was incorrect. looking at the dial very misleading. They were close to Itasca. 20 miles or so. The voice radio transmissions were loud and clear. 5 by 5 as we say. Noonan with all probability took a sun shot shortly after sunrise. This would plot a line perpendicular to their course. He would advance that line on his chart to Howland and dead reckon to that “sun line”. Margin of uncertainty is about 30 mile radius. Good enough if the DF worked.
The Itasca just offshore of Howland had radio homing equipment. Earhart had a homing receiver onboard. They were to fly to the island by radio beacon. The Itasca did make smoke when Earhart was in the general vicinity. However, the smoke did not rise in a vertical column but hugged along the surface of the ocean.
The plane landed on Winslow reef , and drifted floating to the west a few days later, The reef to the North of Winslow reef has been remo ed from google earth
The latest info seems to indicate the sonar image is about 100 miles from Howland not the 27 mentioned in this video, so one or both of the theories are wrong.
@@markprange2430 The true course from Lae to Howland is 78.33 degrees (68.5 degrees magnetic near Howland). A 76.5 degree true (67.03 degree magnetic near Howland) course from Lae to Howland is approximately 80 miles north. Create a map strip of both courses.
Her detailed plan that she made with Gene Vidal before the flight was if she got to Howland and couldn't find it she would still have enough gas to make it to the Gilbert Islands as her alternate landing site. When she said she was low on gas it meant low on gas to find Howland. She still had gas to make it to the Gilberts and with a strong wind from the SE it would have pushed her further north to the Marshall Islands. Many eye witnesses place her at Jaluit in the Marshalls and later taken by the Japanese up on Saipan to a prison there. Admiral Nimitz and 3 Marine Corps Generals all said they knew she died on Saipan. Many others also placed her there. The famous photo of Earhart and Noonan at Jaluit harbor is real. Everything the Marshall Island people have been saying since 1945 is in the photo. The photo shows Fred Noonan and Amelia, the Koshu Maru towing a barge with an aircraft on it. This is EXACTLY what they have been saying they saw since 1945, long before the photo ever surfaced. Don't believe the story about the photo being from a Travel book. That story is definitely fake. The dock they are standing on was built in 1936 so how can the photo show a dock that wasn't built yet be from a 1935 book?
The aircraft did not have the fuel to go back to the Marshalls. Or Gilberts. Earhart kept meticulous records of her aircraft’s performance. The exact fuel load at Lae is known. The aircraft was stripped bare at Lae to save weight and squeeze the best possible range from the aircraft. This is documented by the station manager at Lar and Earhart’s diary she mailed home. And to add icing to the cake, Earhart’s final radio transmissions, her voice was “ near hysterics”. Doesn’t sound like a pilot with about 1 1/2 hours of fuel remaining. Frank Tallman remarked that her “ I’ll fly to Marshalls “ was a flippant answer to continue support for the trip.
How did you get a 79.6 degree true course? Howland is approximately 56 miles north of the equator and Lae is about 461 miles south of the equator. Even with your distance of 2565 miles will still have it around 78.8 degree.
Maybe I'm missing something, but what radio research place Amelia Earhart's plane northeast of Howland Island at any point? Within 30 miles of the Itasca could be north, south, east, west or any compass points in between. The fuel situation seems to be subject to debate. All I find are radio log transcriptions and those don't even seem to agree with each other. There is an entry about having 30 minutes of fuel left at 7:30am local, but they are clearly still in flight 8:43am local when reported they are flying a 157/337 line, one hour and 13 minutes later. No mention was made at the latter time of being out of fuel, but this could be due to the radio frequency change. For all I know she expounded at length about their fuel situation and no one heard.
One of the problems with the conflicting information is that Earhart and the Itasca were using different time zones, 30 minutes apart. Modern reporting often gets these confused. If anything good came from their loss , is that using GMT or Zulu time would now be standard for SAR missions.
The operational range of 30 miles encompasses any direction from the Itasca. Opting for a northeast position for the plane is informed by Noonan's navigation tendencies favoring the northern edge of targets, their average flight speed, the human inclination to overshoot targets, and the extensive search already conducted in the waters south and west of the island. However, it's important to clarify that these decisions are educated guesses, as I lacked direct involvement during the events.
@@AD.Investigates When the Itasca began it’s search, it went up the 337 Sun line, then turned east and made somewhat of a box search. Apparently they thought the same thing.
Well, if The History Channels covers this They will speculate on a ancient aliens theory that Amelia was abducted and might return again someday soon as young as the day the Grays abducted her.
The location of Howland Island was not known exactly. The published coordinates were different. "American Practical Navigator" gave two different positions. And the amount of atmospheric refraction was variable. Being warmer than standard, one or two arcminutes more refraction might be expected. In the Nautical Almanac sunrise was estimated only to the nearest minute, introducing ±7 NM of east-west uncertainty. Calculating more precisely was possible, but variables of barometric pressure and temperature can influence altitude and refraction, and refraction can vary on its own. Even a calculation of sunrise time to within a few seconds should be relied on cautiously. And how experienced and accurate was Noonan with the Bendix bubble sextant he had?
I've been an Earhart researcher since 1962. I have many boxes of files and research material. All of the BS about Gardner/Nikumaruru Island, losing an antenna, the Japanese mission, and execution on Saipan is just that! BS! The important information and clues as to where she ended up are in the last hours of the Itasca radio logs. I don't know exactly where she ended up. But this scenario is as good as it gets. The recent discovery of an airplane image 18,000 feet down on the ocean floor may not be her Electra. But if it isn't, that would not be a reason to stop searching in that same area. Looking for the Electra in that big ocean is like looking for a Dime with a cellphone camera in a Walmart parking lot. How anyone can still believe that she landed on Gardner Island is insane. There was a British survey party that landed on Gardner in October 1937. They spent 3 days there searching every inch of that island, and no airplane wreckage was found. For reference, that was H.E. Maude surveying the island for the Pacific Island Settlement Scheme (P.I.S.S. for short. Really!). The island was also visited and searched in January of 1941. Again, no wreckage was found. This is a great video. I will subscribe.
Her bones were found on Nikumamoro island. Recent studies of the reports from the doctor who studied the bones have been reexamined and proven to most likely have been hers. She probably starved to death and her body was eaten by coconut crabs. The video explaining this is on sandbox news, an award winning aviation channel here on youtube.
The bones were initially studied by a doctor and determined to be of a middle aged Polynesian man 5’ 5” tall. Decades later an Anthropologist, Jantz, examined the written notes. Not the bones. The anthropologist was hired by an organization that has a vested interest in the Nikumaroro hypothesis.
Fred Noonan was an alcoholic whose skills had deteriorated from the disease. Could he stay sober for the flight? We'll never know if this problem was the cause, but must be considered
According to factual evidence, Earhart was in the vicinity of Howland. Noonan did his part correctly. The best that could be achieved with aerial celestial navigation is a fifteen mile radius of error. The radio DF steer was to take them to the island.
According to facts Noonan was a well known drunk, serious drunk. Couple that with Earharts limited skills as a pilot stacked the deck against them especially over the ocean. @@raoulcruz4404
Great logic, Non of that Tigher crap. How could the navel be at Gardner island 1 week after supposed earhart landed there and the search party found nothing. Earhart and noonen would have been jumping up and down with a large help sign onb the beach. How could the plane on Gardner island have vanished so fast?? Not logical. You are right on.
Noonan was the best in the business. He was lead navigator for Pan Am. Evidence clearly indicates he got the airplane within the vicinity of Howland. Under ideal conditions, aerial celestial navigation had a 15 mile radius of error. He did his part correctly. The radio DF steer was to take them to the island.
I understand the need to carry as much fuel as possible but why would you abandon life-saving equipment like a raft flying over such an expansive ocean
They needed the range. Weight reduces range. She had compelling reasons to think she could safely reach the island. Part of being a pioneer is taking a risk. When Lindbergh flew the Atlantic he did not carry a life raft. The chances of being found in a vast ocean is just about zero. They weighed risk against success.
@@princessofthecape2078 Earhart is considered a pioneer by the aviation community. You don’t have to be first to still be a pioneer. She may not fit your or my definition as such. One good result of her loss was that the military went to Zulu time (GMT) as a standard. An underlying problem was that Earhart, Itasca, and Hawaii were operating on 3 different time zones.
The news the other day of the guy that believes he may have located the remains of the plane on the bottom of the oceans is intriguing. Let's see what he come up with on his future searches this year or in 2025.
The pacific Ocean Is A VERY "LARGE "PLACE and Amelia's airplane is a VERY "SMALL" plane ... However , That Plane IS out there , SOMEWHERE ! and With TODAYS Technology and in a relatively short time span , and with Tons of flight data and satellite data they STILL cannot find flight MH370 a HUGE Boeing Passenger Aircraft . So , what are the chances of finding a Tiny 2 Engine airplane that crashed into the South Pacific ocean over EIGHT DECADES Ago ? Little to None is my guess ? Hope I am wrong ?
hmm I think you forgot to include some basic info. IF they were at 1000 ft- HOW FAR could they see? hmm 10 miles? 20? miles. My question is- HOW FAR AWAY from the island would they have to be to MISS the island?
They didn’t have enough fuel. Gardner is 400 miles from Howland. The exact fuel consumption of the Electra is known. The exact fuel load is known from Earharts diary she mailed home from Lae and the station manager at Lae. Lockheed engineers determined the aircraft could not have gotten anywhere close to Gardner.
@@raoulcruz4404 You do not know that for certain. How do you account for the later radio transmissions, heard at several locations, by several people, direction finding leading to the area of Gardner island?
@@jason60chev The post crash radio signals were from other searchers and in a couple of instances determined to be a deliberate hoax. At one point the Itasca heard a transmission they thought was from Amelia. They responded and proceeded to that direction. Turns out it was radio calls from a British ship helping with the search. Searchers were using her call sign, which brought confusion. Adding to that was the Press listening to these transmissions hungering for a lead story and they ran with whatever they could. As for the DF signals pointing to Gardner, they also pointed to the American Samosas. In one instance a signal pointed to an island off Russia. A certain non-profit aircraft recovery organization harps on 2 DF bearings and deliberately ignores all the rest. Bottom line is that with all the known, documented data, the aircraft could not have reached Gardner. This was established by Lockheed. Gardner was searched at the behest of Mr. Putnam. He was desperate to find Amelia. As for the Klenck radio transcript, that is a person listening to a radio play. Said aircraft recovery group twists it to be from AE.
Everyone keeps saying she did not have enough fuel to get from Howland to Gardner. Guess what? She wasn’t at Howland, otherwise she would not have been lost. No one knows how much fuel she had left at 0745. “Running low” can easily mean she was nearing her reserve. Anyone who flies knows that you plan about a 20% fuel reserve. That would have been at least 4 hours, which was enough to get to Gardner.
@@karrahredick9057 most likely government funding. Remember, the only way he was to find the titanic was how soon he could find the nuclear subs! He literally only had 10 days after find the uss thresher, I could be wrong on the sub, but he was working for the government and titanic was a easy a find with government funded tools.
Silly question ..but ..did your calculations use miles or knotical miles ? ..also was the sunrise calculations by the navigator effected by his altitude ? ..where was the radio ship located on the map ?
Nautical miles. Noonan would have factored altidute into his calculations. The radio ship is labled Itasca, on the map 9:00, just northwest of the island. Thanks.
@@AD.Investigatesyou only used Lae’s latitude (461) when calculating the true course of 79.6. You have to add Howland’s 56 miles which would give you 517 miles and a true course of 78.
Somebody should contact james cameron, bob ballard and give them info. If they can find titanic maybe they can find earharts plane. They certaintly have the resources.
Interesting question. The unknown is how much damage the aircraft received when it ditched. I would guess it could float for a couple of hours if the fuel tanks were not damaged.
Likely, as most aircraft do, it flipped upside down when it ditched. They drown before it sank. The deal is, that you just don't really get much practice in ditching airplanes into water. Physics does it's thing. Staying upright is near impossible but for the very seasoned pilots. In any case, if it remained upright, it wouldn't take long to sink. Probably a few minutes. They are just not terribly seaworthy, airplanes.
Again.... empty tanks? Rightside, upside.... the plane would have floated long enough to get out. Bottom line.... out in the middle of the ocean....better to get it over with. @@jimflys2
Nautical charts, Nautical miles. One Nautical Mile (Imperial). Nautical miles are used to measure the distance traveled through the water. A nautical mile is slightly longer than a mile on land, equaling 1.1508 land-measured (or statute) miles. The nautical mile is based on the Earth's longitude and latitude coordinates, with one nautical mile equaling one minute of latitude. In the United Kingdom, the length of the nautical mile was defined by its relation to the Admiralty knot, 6,080 imperial feet per hour, so 1 imperial nautical mile is about 1,853.181 meters. The imperial nautical mile was often called an Admiralty mile, or more correctly, an Admiralty measured mile.
It's time for someone to step up and continue the deep water search begun by Ted Waitt. Bring back "Ginger" and "Mary Ann" or a new autonomous deep sea submersible. I'm looking at you Musk, Bezos, and Zuckerburg.
All pilots know the pit in the stomach that begins anytime you realize that you're not sure where you are, or that fuel is low. One can only imagine how these people felt in the minutes before they ran out of gas over the vast Pacific.
I have a feeling that in their last minutes Earhart was cussing Noonan out something fierce.
@@DK-gy7ll Probably the other way round. She was known to not listen to Noonan earlier on this trip. Fact is she missed a few airports but they were headed to huge land masses, so being off 10 or 15 miles did not matter early in the trip. Flying to a speck in the world's largest ocean on that last leg of the trip did. When she flew to Paris a few years earlier, she not only missed Paris she missed the whole Country of France landing in North Ireland for crying out loud.
I recall my father and (family) flying a Helio Courier over the frozen tundra between Hay River and Ft. Franklin NWT, Canada in December 1974 it was dark, -40F, head wind of 40 mph we almost ran out of fuel, Dad was navigating with the ADF, everything was white, ground, sky everything, bad visibility, we made it though there was some talk we might be camping on the tundra that night, Dad had the engine leaned out to the max, some stress that night but relief to land in Ft. Franklin and spend the night before continuing to Inuvik.
@@dwaynemcallister7231What a great story. Your dad must been a very good pilot. Thanks for sharing
You are the only one that parallels my own thinking. I have said for years they flew past the island that was south of them by 15 to 25 miles. They ran out of fuel looking for Howland Island. NO Nikumaroro, No Japanese B S either. If I hit the lottery I will start my search East of the island. Problem most daunting is the vast area combined with the extreme depth of the ocean in that area. I was about 12 when a teacher put me onto Amelia and her disappearance, I'm over 80 now and still taking in all the info I can. Thank you for your great deductions. So sad about Fred and Amelia.😪😪😪
Its all about the money and interest in finding out what actually happened 😮, they found the titanic anything is possible it would be nice to finally finish her story they were quite adventurous considering the technology they has access to back then.
@@frankorobinson1540 Ballard had a pretty good idea where the Titanic went down because of the Carpathia, (rescue ship) noted where they picked up the survivors. Plus he had a debris field over a mile long to follow to the ship, in fact, that is how he located it, he found the debris first then followed it. There is no such information on Amelia, no debris field either. I know her plane is near Howland island but it is down 13000 feet plus could be E, W, S , N of that island. The search would be far far different then the Titanic. 😀😀😀😆
@@frankorobinson1540
They didn't really find the Titanic. That was something that just happened while searching for a different ship.
@@Istandby666Uh…. No. Ballard surveyed the wreck of the USS Scorpion for the US Navy, then we purposely searching for the Titanic, know your history.
@@sdcoinshooter
I know the history. Pull your head out of your ass.
Everything you show here, is absolutely reasonable, and justifies a search, utilizing every resource available in today's technology.
Your wish came true !!
In 1964, my ship was on patrol between New Guinea and Howland Island. During our flight, we flew in the vicinity of Earhart's flight and were intercepted by a pilot who was attempting to recreate the Earhart flight.
Did you yell out? Amelia where are you?????
Cool!
Tragically, it seems that Earhart and Noonan were so close, and yet so far.
Your research looks accurate. The issue will be decided when someone searches the ocean floor 25 miles east of Howland Island and finds the aircraft. Excellent job on showing the timeline!!!
Oceangate will build a submersible for this.
If you look up the wind and sea drift data, they are both Westward. Even in the telegrams of 1937
You can see drift the west wzs the only direction
The problem is his true course is off. He only used Lae’s 461 mile south and forgot to add Howland 56 miles north. The actual true course is 78.33 degrees.
There's an 8 year old video here on Yu Toob that expert Joe Lodrige's explanation on where Amelia Earhart went missing is given, and he was 7 years old when she went down. He draws a nearly identical conclusion as you but he says she's further southeast along the 157 line because the last signal to Itasca went a little weaker. He puts her at 0 degrees, 10 minutes north by 175 degrees, 55 minutes west, almost due east of Baker Island. Regardless, I think both of you are absolutely correct that she's in the water along that line either east or southeast of Howland. David Jourdan's 2002 & 2005 deep sea searches covered 1200 square miles north, northeast and northwest of Howland and found nothing, so those locations can be eliminated. That only leaves east and southeast of the island as the place she can be.
I have seen Lodrige's video, and it is very well researched, and presented. It's not long, and well worth watching.
Guess if the navy hadn't bought the deep-sea research ship Petra we might have had an answer
Yes, and a search plane headed for Winslow reef ran low on oil and had to turn around,
So it is a fact that Winslow reef was not searched
winslow reef
I have wayched this concise and logical explanation a few times now. I think this is incredible reasoning and fantastic.
The.most likely explanation is usually the right one They ran out of fuel and crashed and sunk most of the life saved equipment was left behind because of weight including a raft
Can you imagine making that flight without a raft? OR...maybe they decided they'd rather not die in a raft on the ocean?
It may have drifted some distance before sinking I think as the empty fuel tank's (1200 gal.) have a buoyancy of 9990 lbs but the aircraft weigh's lees than 7000 lbs, It may have taken some time for the fuel tanks to fill with water.
Yup. The teenager in Florida who kept a notebook by her radio heard phantom radio transmissions for 3hrs after the last official transmission and claimed they mentioned water up to their knees and feeling hot and wanting out
She mentioned 3S 165E which was likely the last known position beyond Nukumanu, and a number that corresponded well to 158-338 which corresponds well to the last line of bearing of 157-337
I have been following the Amelia Earhart issue for year. great research.
That plane is a looooong way below the surface…18,000 feet, thats to the depth of the Titanic, and then another mile down!
Yes. My understandi g is that it will nelp to oreserve it
He misspoke. He meant 1,800 as was said earlier in the video. Which is close to Ballard's claim (Yes the Ballard who found the Titanic!) That he found her plane in 2000 ft of water.
It’s 18 nautical feet
@paf268 no its 18k, theres s reason they used an unmanned sub and havent gone to the plane yet until later this year. Its actually 16,900 feet. But keep on trying to educate others on topics youre utterly clueless on
I mis-spoke. It’s 18 nautical inches My mistake!
It’s a great theory, and definitely more compelling than the Gardner grift, however I think there’s one hurdle that’s hard to get over.
The Itasca was producing a huge plume of smoke to help guide the plane in, visually. If Earhart was East of Howland, between the smoke and the rising sun, that plume would have been emblazoned like a mushroom cloud. How could they miss it, particularly if they had made a few N-S runs along the line? This question alone leads me to believe they were still short of the island, and the plume was lost in the glare.
Sunrises and sunsets in that part of the world during different seasons and various natural effects can be extremely deceiving and problematic…
people mention ‘cloud cover’ but they don’t mention the variations of weird combined effects that can happen with various other natural processes in the area
And Pan Am claims that a person of average sight can only see 39 miles at 1000ft due to the curvature of the Earth
Now, tell us the location of the lost Duchman's mine.
@2.39 Wrong....the signal strength does NOT tell you how close the source of the signal is. I am in the UK and a shortwave radio operator......I often receive S5 signals from Brazil and / or Venezuela while at the same time local stations may only produce S2 or S3 signals. Propagation, frequency and the type of antenna used can all affect the signal strength regardless of the actual distance.
He was not off from the time accuracy. He noted therrors and reset the clock.
The reason for error noting is to compensate eg 1 sec per week, which improves the
Accuracy. The 2nd system is called dead reckoning. Thats where the errors creep in.
The cloud civer blocked the accurate sun fix
If the possible wreck that was recently located is Amelias Lockheed 10 Electra it would be very interesting to see if it lies within your suggested search area.
That target is claimed to be 100 miles from Howland. No direction is being given?
@@PhilinWaterloo They probably want to keep it as tight secret so no one else gets there before them. And considering what it might be, it is probably wise. There are plunderers with as good tech today. But lets hope we learn that fast.
2 sources have said the search location was 100 miles west of.
@@PhilinWaterlooapproximately 100 miles west/northwest of Howland Island. Two theories come up: because of the International date line, Noonan miscalculated their course and flight path which put their aircraft off course to the north. Second theory is that Noonan had correctly charted their flight path, but crosswinds blowing in a westerly direction blew them off course without Earhart and Noonan realizing it until it was too late.
Let me start by saying that I wish both AE and her brave navigator total RIP.
The one thing I want the panel and followers to understand is, "you cannot fly "north and south" on a position line if you have NO radio aid/s ahead or behind you" ! It's IMPOSSIBLE.
I am talking from my experience of about 25,000 hrs flight time, with roughly 95% as Pilot-in-Command as accumulated from MILITARY (RAF) and civilian airline experience.
I was the Squadron Flight Safety Officer on every squadron I was on, and a CAA (UK) Approved Safety Training Instructor.
More than 3,000 hrs was spent over the world’s oceans at less than 1000’ on the Avro Shackleton Mk2.2 and Mk3.3 (14 hours airborne was par for the course) and more flying hours doing roughly the same work on the HS NIMROD maritime four-jet.
That infamous Position Line so calculated by Mr Noonan (some say in his bedroom on LAE) as 157/337 degrees (true) is all well and good IF it were accurate. Taking a "sunshot" as the sun comes up first thing in the morning is NOT a recommended time ! So it was NOT accurate.
A considerable amount of Errors were inherent and were NOT accounted for
1.Acceleration error
2. Index
3. Operator
4. Refraction (in 1937 as it was not accounted for ! Only sun angles above 6 degrees). US Navy demanded using > 10 degrees 5. DIP - not used on a bubble sextant 6. Height > MSL. (at 10,000’ Sun Rise is 10 minutes earlier than a person at sea level would see it).
To legitimately use a position-line one must have been 'on' that line at some point during flight - where exactly is not established until you get at least a second position-line with a good 'cut' across that first PL .
Moving the first PL along the assumed track MUST involve an accurate GROUND SPEED.
I do not think Mr Noonan ever had an accurate enough GS to do that.
It has been said he pre-calculated that infamous PL back in his hotel room on LAE. That’s fine, but when it comes to the actual flying on the day with fuel running out, it’s no use flying up and down this invisible line - as it is not a feature on the surface of the sea, nor is it a line of boats on the surface, nor coloured dye, nor a line of buoys showing the way.
Unless there’s a tracking aid either ahead or behind when you reach this vital PL you are wasting your time trying to track up and down that PL merely by turning onto 157 degrees or 337. Wind will take its toll on anything you think you have covered !
The ONLY way Mr Noonan could assume he was "on the line" was to have an accurate Ground Speed since his last accurate one derived from a viable 'fix' and then have an ETA for the 157/337 PL which had it’s datum engineered through Howland Island.
If the last 'fix' was inaccurate, his G/S was at best a rough estimate; then the move to fly down that PL was NEVER going to work.
It’s an IMPOSSIBLE task, ask any certified Pilot who has passed the written plotting exam; better still, ask one who has an Instrument Rating which involved a flying test to prove you can do that job.
"Circling" as reported by AE would make any "Airplot" the nav was keeping a complete joke. Flying at 1000' as she reported was purely "eyeball" as she had no Radio Altimeter nor a local QNH to set her pressure altimeter.
There are no consistently reliable "fixes" in any of the chart work we know of, nor R/T exchanges, and having flown for 23 hours plus the area where you think you has become ever larger (10% of distance flown).
It was suicidal NOT to have planned this properly.
Ms Earhart let her sponsors down very badly.
I’m afraid both Amelia and Fred were grossly un-prepared for this enormous navigational/endurance task.
1. Rubbish communication planning.
2. Rubbish R/T between air and ship/s.
3. Not having reliable on-board radio aid equipment to get bearings from land bases cost them dearly.
4. Neither crew member knew enough morse code to read simple messages. That’s really stupid.
There are so many disturbing facts it beggars belief.
Show me hard written evidence that the aircraft completed a proper "Compass swing" after it had its two engines changed at Miami.
The whole team overall could not even get a common time base to work from !
It should have been GMT through out, but even the ITASCA radio room was working "local" and not GMT/UTC and AE always used the local time and the nav GMT. Madness.
It’s one hellish shame it all turned to worms, so if you are thinking of doing anything like that remember the 6 "P's". Perfect Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance.
Miss Earhart had a bad habit of turning in some Piss Poor performances.
1. No reliable compass swing after that Hawaii crash and the disassembled aircraft taken back to the USA. "The tailwheel of the Electra was raised up onto a wheeled 'dolly' so the 'plane would be in the flight attitude as it was rotated during the compass swing. NO mention the engines were running - which is essential for a correct and proper compass swing.
2. She missed the planned destination on that Hawaii to the USA flight (correct airfield eventually !).
3. She used two-way radio on the above flight, so why did she not realise that was her life-line ?
4. She let her pilot’s licence expire ! 15 Oct 1936 - sorted it out, but how silly and unprofessional.
5. She missed their intended landing site at Dakar on the Natal flight, landed 116sm NORTH at St. Louis.
She summarised this significant error by saying, "My navigator indicated that we should turn south. Had we done so, a half hour would have brought us to Dakar. But a left turn seemed to me in order and after 50 miles of flying along the coast, we found ourselves at St. Louis, Senegal." That’s the sort of very gash piloting that gets you in deep trouble.
She also compounded confusion by using "local time" when GMT was used by her professional navigator. Her ASI was in MPH whilst Fred Noonan was using knots.
6. No chance of D/F on the night/day frequencies (or any in fact !). Horrible decision.
7. No dinghy despite a long over-water flight ! Tch Tch. Inventory List, 26 March 1937 Luke Field, Hawaii.
8. No Intercom, just a bamboo rod and string pulley - madness.
9. T/O from LAE says it all, the aircraft was skimming just above the water till out of sight and never climbed >100’ according to witnesses. Mr JA Collopy - District Superintendent (Civil Aviation).
10. Doing an Airtest and knowing the D/F was not working was unforgivable.
11. How on earth did nobody locate that "lost" trailing aerial on LAE ? Not that it would achieve anything !
12. The MAP position of Howland was not accurately portrayed: 6 miles west and 1 mile north of true position ! Say no more.
13. She did not even submit an "Accident Report" (Form 87) to the Bureau of Air Commerce after that failed T/O. A month after that crash the Bureau wrote to her (19 April 1937) and reminded her about the $500 fine that could be actioned.
A kind "Supervising" Inspector, Mr Emil Williams in Honolulu recommended, "no action should be taken in this instance". Politics !
She had not even thought of taking off during daylight that morning and "delayed take off until there was sufficient light to see clearly". At 05.40 (local) the wx was, ceiling 3000’ wind
First, TIGHAR is the one that says that 157-337 is based on the sun line (67 deg true) which is 11 degrees north of Howland. Second, TIGHAR’s research doesn’t mention magnetic declination near Howland and what the 78 degree true course is converted to a magnetic course on approach to Howland (68.5 degrees). Third, a 67 degree magnetic (76.5 degree true) is approximately 1.5 degrees (80 miles) north of Howland!
If you check the math when calculating the true course you will find something interesting. Distance 2556 (miles) or 2221 (nautical miles) and a vertical latitude of 517 miles (Lae 461 miles south of the equator and Howland 56 miles north of the equator). If you use 2556 you get a 78.33 degree true course. Adjust magnetic declination which was 9.49 degrees east (1937) near Howland give you a 68.8 degree magnetic course. If you substitute 2556 for 2221 you will get a 76.54 degree true course. Adjust magnetic declination gives you a 67.05 degree magnetic course! We know that Clarence Williams created the map strips for their flights (1 is in the Purdue archives. Honolulu to Oakland). It’s possible he made a mistake and gave them the wrong directions putting them about 80 miles off track (north).
157-337 could be based on the 67 degree magnetic course!
Our video host also made a mistake when calculating the true course (79.6 degrees). He only used Lae latitude (461 miles) and forgot to add Howland latitude (56 miles).
Nobody could locate the lost antenna on Lae because it was removed from the aircraft in Miami at the request of Earhart. People see a puff of dirt from an airplane taking off on a dirt runway and now it's an antenna falling off.
As for Noonan's navigation and errors such as refraction. I'm certain he was well aware of this. He was the best navigator at Pan Am. His navigation only had to get the aircraft with about 25 miles of Howland. The DF steer was to take them the rest of the way. The time zone disparity you mention had a significant impact on the ability to get a DF steer.
Over the past 80+ years people have been pointing the finger at Fred Noonan. He was one of the best in his field. He was also an instructor. I read that flights still use Fred’s information today. There is no proof that Fred made any mistakes. There is also no proof that Earhart made any mistakes, and yet people still point fingers. Everything is all speculation. Most people don’t know that there were 3 people directly involved with the flight. Clarence Williams was the third person. Where is the research on him? He has been known for making mistakes. He put Howland in the wrong location on the map. In 1936 the US navy resurveyed and corrected the mistake. I think more research and fresh eyes would benefit the mystery. Letting TIGHAR have free range is a mistake.
@@twright4263 I’ll certainly agree TIGHAR is a mistake. There is not much that can be done about them except keep reiterating the facts.
I agree that Noonan was the best in the business and all indications are he did his job correctly.
As for Clarence Williams, his error is immaterial had the Direction Finding equipment worked.
As for the DF, the man who built that radio for the World Flight determined afterwards that Earhart had used it incorrectly. Anybody without explicit knowledge of the unit would have made the same operating error.
This is fantastic and I am sure you are right. The TIGHER blow hearts put the aircraft on Gardner island 400 miles sound of Howland, never considering there was not enough fuel to reach Gardner island. also Gardner island was searched 1 week after the plane disappeared and the search never found anything.. The lastest sonar find confirms your brilliant work. I am sure within a year your work will be vindicated.
This is the best guess a to where they actually ended up. All the other theories don't make any sense when you look at the facts. They just didn't have enough fuel to make it to Gardner Island, or any of the other islands people think they wound up on. It's not a glamourous mystery with a fantastic story of survival, just a regular tragic accident, sorry folks, this is reality.
I have read that what doomed this segment of the flight was "poor planning, worse execution." Apparently there had been radio issues earlier in the flight and communication problems ocurred during the critical approach to Howland. They were too far out to see the black smoke pouring from the Itasca and simply went into the sea looking for the island.
@@krutherfurd..another IMPORTANT aspect IF true, were unexpected ‘headwinds, and strong at that. A guessing game either way..
Thre is a caveat to your comment, Amelia was not fully trained on using the Bendix receiver to localise the radio signals that the USCGC Itasca was transmitting as an aid to finding Howland Island. That was originally the role that Paul Mantz had taken when Amelia and him had tried to fly around the world starting in California before heading to Hawaii where that attempt ended in a crash.
As was pointed out in the cockpit photographs released of the Electra the Bendix receiver was also at head height directly in front of the pilots position and the theory was that Amelia was thrown against it in the ditching and thus knocked unconscious.
As far as I know Amelia did not have a ton of experience flying from inland to inland. Or over a seamas from land mass to land mass. It's much harder to find a tiny island. So this theory does make a lot of sense. My big question is how do we know it was to the north. I also.e this is based on the transmissions the ship reserved and it's location that I do not no so it have to been in a radius of that I would agree
Pretty interesting take, hope someone finds her plane one-day.
IF they found it at 18,000 feet down, it would be in very good condition.
And they just might have. The sonar image of and aircraft that looks similar in dimensions to the Lockheed 10-E Electra that Earhart and Noonan were flying. At a depth at 16,400 ft.
Based on the probable location of the the Romeo brothers sonar imaging I would say this possible explanation will be proved correct in the near future
Where are they searching ?
Well you were wrong. It was a rockformation
Interesting; I just saw a WW2-era navigator make a case the plane is lying on the bottom of the ocean at 0 10 n 175 55 w - pretty close. He noted Noonan's chronometer was off by 3 seconds, where each second in error represents 10 nautical miles.
Earth rotates about ¼ arcminute per second.
Allegedly 4 seconds = 1NM error at Equator
I thoroughly believe that she and Noonan made it to Nikumaroro…as evidenced by human remains that were found there that turned out to be female…closely matching the physical measurements of her body. Along with an instrument box that might have held a sextant for navigation and personal items that would have been used by Amelia.
Tyger has located pieces of aircraft aluminum just off shore of that location that are a possible match that coming from the Lockheed.
I believe that they found the island while looking for Howland Island and ditched the plane on the barrier reef off the coast of Nikumaroro.
The evidence is pretty clear. They made it there and died there.
You were right!!! Wow 😮 They found it in that area!
no they didn't. it was a false sonar image
That same heading takes you straight going South South East to Nikumaroro Island. Thee years after her disappearance a British Expedition Ship using the heading given by Earhart arrived there and found; a campsite, a man's shoe, a women's shoe, a Sextant case matching Noonan's type Sextant case, a box of one of Earhart's know drinks, also found and 13 bones and a skull. The bones were taken to a doctor on Fiji's medical school who thought they were to big for her and discarded them. However he kept meticulous records and measurements of the bones. Later the data was examined Richard Jantz Professor Emeritus of Anthropology. He used modern forensics and matched the Bones measurement to a 99% match to Earhart's bone measurements using pictures of her standing next to items of known dimensions. So how did they get to Nikumaroro Island almost 400 miles South South East of Howland Island if they ran out of fuel 25miles off Howland? A very good question! Here's some crazy speculations of mine; I don't think the Electra could have glided that far even with a good tail wind or with a high enough altitude. However if they had a life raft with food and water and the currents and winds were favorable it's possible I guess they could have drifted that far after gliding as far as they could before ditching. I think until the plane is found or bones with DNA we will never know. Thanks for sharing. Best Wishes & Blessings. Keith Noneya
I agree that (Gardener) island is the most compelling argument. I hope to live long enough for the plane to be located…
My maternal grandfather was aboard the USS Colorado (BB-45) whose aircraft surveyed the island from the air and noted the signs of recent habitation.
Keith, when the Norwich City (ship wrecked in storm in 1929) was beached on Nikumaroro 11 men died and were buried on that island. The "preponderance" of evidence points that the bones was one of them. The "fool" doctor looked at actual bones then lost them or buried them but now some doctors using "HIS" measurements trust him???? Sorry, no sale. The women's shoe Gillespie of TIGHAR (so called experts on her disappearance) found was two sizes too big for Amelia's feet. Do you buy shoes two sizes too big for yourself?? I know of nobody that does. Amelia's sister said she never bought shoes too large for her. The Sextant box was discarded by a later survey ship in 1939, they even said it belonged to them!! The piece of metal Gillespie found had the wrong pattern of rivet holes then her Electra, it is more likely from a DC 47 tests' have shown. There is no evidence whatsoever that she took a case of her favorite drink along, in fact, evidence, because of weight concerns. she more likely DID NOT. The freckle cream jar was one of over 600,000 produced by that company and most likely left by a later inhabitant of Nikumaroro. After Gillespie of TIGHAR spent 6 trips and over 6 million dollars looking for evidence of her being a castaway on Nikumaroro he has "NOT" produced one "iota" of concrete proof she was ever there, what he did find has long been DEBUNKED!! His Group TIGHAR looks there because it's too difficult to look in a thousand square mile area around Howland Island in 13000 feet of water for a plane. Do your own research, (AS I DID) B 4 buying into "SPECULATION".😝😝😝
Nikumaroro has been thoroughly debunked. Lots of plausible reasons all those things were found, mainly that there have been people on that island. This is pseudo science and not sincere.
Please address the radio transmissions that were heard by several people, even airline stations, that direction finding from three stations pointed to Gardner island. The plane would have had to be intact, in order to send those messages, over a course of a few days.
The doctor on Fiji, Dr. Hoodless determined the bones to be of a middle aged man of Polynesian descent, 5’ 5” tall. Jantz was hired by a certain organization that has a vested interest in keeping the Nikumaroro story alive. Somehow he determined , from the written notes, the bones to be a woman , 5’ 8” , of European descent. As for any other hypotheses, keep in mind
Gardner is 400 miles from Howland.
You may be right. I think crashing in the ocean is most likely what happened. I do wonder what Noonan's plan was if they missed the Island .... something I suspect he would have been concerned with . Both of them would know the danger... I would think they shared their plan a head of time. For me.. it's finding their remains ...not who is right.
A radio operator also did an analysis. The video is also on RUclips. Is this video based on that analysis? I remember him putting the area as a bit more SE of the island towards the outer band of the yellow search area. I would live to see Ocean Explorer dedicate some time to scanning this area. It makes the most sense.
Searching in that area at that depth would be so expensive. Just to solve a mystery is one reason ; if it were a plane full of gold it would be another reason. I guess it will remain a mystery.
There are people that search for WWII warship wrecks to pinpoint their locations and give a final sense of closure to any remaining family members of the missing crew members.
It’s not unrealistic to hope that someday one of those search teams will devote some time to finding this plane. The Titanic was found in this manner, the Navy paid Dr. Ballard to find and survey two lost submarine wrecks and there were about two weeks of search time funding that could be dedicated to finding Titanic, and they did, in eight days.
An expedition like the one that located Titanic would be the most probable way to fund a search for Earhart’s plane.
It's a shame Paul Allen is no longer alive. After his death his luxury yacht/research ship RV Petrel was sold. I'm sure he would've conducted the search.
Yes and no …yes it’s very expensive…probably about a million a day in mostly fuel, not counting crew and consumables etc but no it’s relatively easily doable because NOAA does fisheries surveys in the area and allows piggy back science parties for various projects long and short term
I just wanted to ask you if you have ever read EARHART'S FLIGHT INTO YESTERDAY by Captain Laurance Safford, Safford was one of the key people in the U.S. Navy's efforts to intercept and decode Japanese radio traffic during WW2 so he was very familiar with 1930's radio technology. He passed away in 1973 and supposedly the manuscript was saved from the trash can at his home. Check the wiki entry for his name - his first name is spelled Laurance rather than with a w. If you haven't read it I thought it might be of interest to you. : )
AWESOME read thanks
Factoid: At an altitude of 1,000 feet, Howland island should have been viable from 38 miles away. (86 miles from 5,000') Weather conditions notwithstanding.
What’s more is that the Itasca was purposely belching out copious amounts of smoke as a signal to help guide them in, WHICH, if they were East of Howland, the smoke cloud would have been emblazoned by the rising sun, and blatantly obvious. They could possibility have missed the island from 30 miles away, as it was just a speck, but the plume would have been unmistakable.
So, unless they only ran one N-S pass while East of Howland, AND were already well North or South of the island before the plume appeared, it’s far more likely they were still short of Howland, where the smoke could have been lost in the glare.
Not always. Remember that in 1942 the Japanese search planes flew over and their trained military pilots missed Enterprise, Hornet, and their escorts near Midway...
Fair enough. But in that case they didn't have an exact position of the US ships, while the exact position of howland island was known to AE. On the other hand, when the US pilots got within 80 miles of the enemy at Midway, they did find them. I only have 800 hours logged, but I have always found that when looking for something, the higher the better. (In this case airports) @@thatguyinelnorte
@@lnchgj. According to pilots who regularly fly the Pacific, Howland would have been very difficult to spot beyond about 12 miles. The island is flat. About 6 feet above sea level. It had no wide beach areas like Wake or Midway. The beach sand reflects light well. The terrain is a brownish green and looks much like the ocean at a distance. The 38 miles does not consider any ocean haze, color, or refraction. Just a theoretical limit in a perfect environment.
You didn’t say how much of your 800 hours was over ocean. I can tell you landmarks are much easier to see than on the ocean.
@@thatguyinelnorteThat was from a Pan Am query …39 miles for average sight with regard to Earth curvature
Very interesting, I wonder what would be left of aluminum after 90 years. Navigating and radio in 1930's Pacific Ocean was not very exact. Getting off course was common.
Always admired her Prayed for her to be found alive.
Update: she's still missing
Sounds feasible.
I just returned from New Zealand looking at boats for search mission I want to put together.
I will buy the boat, will be seeking donations for sonar equipment and expenses.
You realise that this will take millions of dollars, one author who researched the incisent reckoned the bill would be about $12-$14 million US dollars to survey the area as the depth is extreme?
Perhaps get gill bates to join
She exceeded her abilities, again. Finally caught up to her.
Sadly that may have been one of the reasons that her former navigator quit after Earhart crashed the Lockheed Electra in Hawaii before her attempt at flying around the world. Fred Noonan was a capable navigator, but nowhere near as good as his predecessor.
I wonder if the smoke from the Itasca might have caused the ship and the island to be invisible to the plane. I wonder what exactly was being burned to create the signal.
Bunker fuel.
The nice thing about the Earhart flight is there is just enough incomplete information to support almost any theory, and to disprove none of them.
Apparently Tony Romeo found Earhart's Lockheed Electra in 16,000 feet of water 95 miles west of Howland island...
I would potentially try talking to the crews that are currently looking at the ww2 ships under midway
Why hasn't anyone taken up a search here yet???
A: $$$$$$$
After reading through many of the comments, a few make a valid point about how hard it would be to locate a plane so small in such a vast area of ocean floor. We must consider the depth in the search area, the other 'WW2 junk' that litters the ocean floor there, and the possibility that the wreckage could be covered up by now of whatever the ocean floor is made of there. Sand, mud, ?.
It would be a monumental task.
Have at it. Just take a small dinghy and a fishing rod with 19,000 feet of line with a GoPro tied on the end. Attach a little waterproof LED light, toss it in the water until it hits bottom. Pull it up two feet and use the dinghy to circle around a bit. Reel the camera back up and check your memory card. Mystery solved. Simple.
Alas the may have found the wreckage 100 miles out I've seen a couple estimates that were pretty close !!
■■■■■■■■■■■
In 1936 a Navy book gave two locations for Howland. The coordinates are about 9 miles apart.
N0° 49' (00)",
W176° 43' 09"
&
N0° 53',
W176° 35'.
These are in "AMERICAN PRACTICAL NAVIGATOR" on pages 340 & 401.
Its coordinates for Gardner were
S4° 37' 42",
W174° 40' 18".
Page 341 of the same edition.
What grips me is they herd sos radio calls from her a few days later and 11:21 a piece of a plane from a Electra was found on some island, she must have landed somewhere but not Holland island
No SOS signals were ever heard. Searchers were transmitting on her radio frequency, using her aircraft call sign. These were mistaken as being from Earhart, mostly by the story hungry Press listening in Hawaii.
That piece of metal could have come from just about any aircraft. Keep in mind a World War took place before that piece of metal was found. Gardner island was used for a LORAN station during WWII. Who knows what or how many aircraft were there for various reasons.
Tighar posted dimensions of that piece of metal and it was compared to a Lockheed 10E in the US. No match. It was a near perfect match for the wing skin on a PBY.
Tighar has a story to sell. I do mean sell. $$
I thought that the area you suggested to search is a good idea. Why havent they searched there? This seems to be the best place to start
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
There have been surveys there but for different missions such as fisheries
Basically it would be too expensive and time and resource consuming for most people to make a concerted effort
I always wonder why she didn't call out on the radio when she was about to ditch in the ocean.
Great video.
I found this theory very interesting and by far the most believable of all the current "guesses". One thing those who have not flown over, much less searched for anything in the huge expanse of the Pacific is, how damn difficult Howland would be to spot, especially with the glare of the early morning sun in your eyes, and with the island possibly _behind_ you. Sad for Amelia and Fred, may they rest in peace.
So no concrete proof of where the plane is. Another theory.
Some issues with your analysis. Indicated airspeed is not a good indication of ground speed nor distance covered. If they were flying into a headwind of 35 mph at their altitude, they would not have been near the island. Further, there is no evidence of radio signal strength beyond descriptions of ’fair, and ‘good’. And radio signal strength is NOT a reliable indication of distance because of the effect of the ionosphere. People in Hawaii have picked up radio signals clear as day from Russia. The primary reason why I doubt your estimate of signal strength can be found in photos of the plane. See that circular antenna sticking up from the fuselage? That is a radio bearing finder. Noonan’s principal tool for navigation and the entire reason there was a cutter on station broadcasting a signal. There would be no reason for the plane to circle anywhere near the island because as the plane passed the cutter, the bearing of their radio homing signal would have dramatically changed, allowing Noonen to triangulate a dead accurate location for the ship and the island. Literally just two readings 5 minutes apart would have told them exactly where the ship was if they were flying past it. ( This is why during WWII ships in a fleet sailed close enough to one another to signal each other thru shutter lamps. So they would not broadcast their locations. ) That Earhart reported that they could not get a fix indicates that they had to be so far away as to not have a strong signal and/or be unable to read a significant difference in bearing. ( radio coms at extreme distances can be clear as a bell on one end, while the other end has poor reception, again, depending on quirks of the atmosphere and ionosphere)
That they stated they were circling is an indication that they were trying to change their orientation to the ship’s radio signal to see if they could get a second, differing bearing. That is, if their course just so happened to be directly toward the ship, they would be unable to determine a triangulation. So by turning 90 degrees they are moving the aircraft perpendicular to their last bearing to see if they can get a second bearing with a different value. The fact that they turned to do some back and forth was not so they were perpendicular to the sunrise, which happens at different times depending on altitude. What they did was turn 90 degrees to their prior heading.
This strongly suggests that multiple readings of bearing on the cutter’s signal were almost identical, and that indicated they were flying very close to directly toward the cutter, and so every reading was so close to the same as to offer no range info. They turned and flew for a while 90 degrees to that to see if they got a different bearing for estimating range. If they turned North again so soon it could mean they got a range, and it was too far away to make on remaining fuel. Or it could mean they saw no significant change in bearing which meant either they could not get a good signal, or were so far away from the cutter that flying 50 miles did not appreciably change their bearing.
To me the evidence suggests they were either far short of the ship, but flying along a direct bearing for it. Or they were so far away that the signal was not strong enough to get a meaningful change of radio bearing.
Again, had they flown past the broadcasting cutter at that close a range, their radio direction finder would have given them a solid direction and range to the cutter and they would have immediately broadcast their confirmation and flown straight toward it.
There are so many errors in your treatise that I don’t know where to start correcting or even if I should.
@@raoulcruz4404 Which is the same as saying you have no argument. I had a radio operator’s certificate from the Air Force. They were using a radio direction finder to triangulate the location of the island. Had they flown PAST the island they would have gotten a good enough fix to know the exact location of the cutter. Period. The only reason to change heading 90 degrees from the bearing they had plotted to the island was if they were seeing NO change in radio direction bearing from the cutter, which would tell them they were heading in the right direction, but NOT how far away they were. A radio direction finder gives you a fair but not perfect bearing, based upon your perception of radio signal strength and clarity. When I was in the Civil Air Patrol we used to practice this in a game called Red Fox/ Blue Fox. Three cars, Two with a direction finding antenna and the other with a transmitter. The transmitter had to stop and transmit for 1 minute every 15 minutes. The other two could take bearings and consult with one another via radio, using a map, to fix the transmitter’s location, and to try and coordinate our movements such that we could box in the Red Fox on a stretch of road with one of us on either side and no road the Red Fox could turn onto to escape. This is how Noonan was using that circular antenna on the Lockheed to try and locate the island and its why there was a cutter there broadcasting regularly.
ETA- in Red Fox/ Blue Fox, we could derive a more accurate location in coordinating two separate bearings from two receivers because we could know they had to be on a road surface or parking lot. So where our bearing plots crossed, we could identify the nearest road to that location, and their possible routes from that point.
@@christopherpardell4418 Earhart was using the DF equipment incorrectly. She stated unable to get a bearing. Later investigation found out why. Same reason she couldn’t get a “ minimum “ on the test flight at Lae a few days earlier. I know how DF works. Used it myself while flying. But your analysis is moot because she was using the one-off prototype Bendix incorrectly. The man who built that radio determined what she was doing wrong afterwards. By the way, I was in the CAP also. I know about DF searches.
@@raoulcruz4404 What you are saying is news to me. From what Ive read Noonan did the navigating… But what kind of fool would take off to try and find a tiny island based on a radio bearing with a direction finding system that wasn’t working? Seems if it wasn’t working a few days prior to the hardest leg that they would have held up until they had it figured out. What exactly did they do ‘wrong’ in operating it? And Their radio communications seem unclear. Could they actually not get a bearing? In that there was no peak reception? Or does that mean they could not get a Change in bearing from which to determine a distance and direction? Again, it seems to me that being unable to get a bearing at all means they could have ended up anywhere. If the thing was working and they could not get a bearing the signal would have had to have been too weak, meaning they were nowhere near the island, far from flying past missing it by a hundred miles. If they changed course at nearly a right angle to their former bearing, to me the only possible reason to do that is that the bearings they were getting were all too similar and they were trying to get a second convergent reading.
You are suggesting they were trying to fly perpendicular to the imminent sunrise to Figure out their longitude based upon an ephemeris showing sunrise time at Howland island ?
@@christopherpardell4418 I’m using my iPhone so it’s difficult to type a long message. But here goes: On the test flight at Lae , Amelia could not get a minimum or null while rotating the loop antenna. She dismissed it as being to close to the powerful radio station. This is known from testimony from the station manager whom AE conferred with often.
I think she was pressured to get on with the flight because she was running out of money. Stated so in a telegram to Putnam.
In the vicinity of Howland she couldn’t get a minimum (antenna null) either. her misuse of the DF coupler and was compounded because her preplanned radio schedule was 15 minutes different from Itasca. They were using different time zones. Drawing on a piece of paper I can explain how she misused the DF. The simplest but incomplete explanation is the band selector was incorrect. looking at the dial very misleading.
They were close to Itasca. 20 miles or so. The voice radio transmissions were loud and clear. 5 by 5 as we say.
Noonan with all probability took a sun shot shortly after sunrise. This would plot a line perpendicular to their course. He would advance that line on his chart to Howland and dead reckon to that “sun line”. Margin of uncertainty is about 30 mile radius. Good enough if the DF worked.
Well done, Sir!!!
Watch unsolved mysteries season 3 episode 8 they talk about Amelia earhart. They said wind currents threw her off course
She knew how to fly, but man! Was she bad at parking!
Too funny 😁😁😁😁
No need to recover the plane (which is likely impossible anyway at that depth), just send down an ROV to get some clear video if possible.
Enjoyed this one
I see no way to find such a small island without large smoke sent up or flares.......
The Itasca just offshore of Howland had radio homing equipment. Earhart had a homing receiver onboard. They were to fly to the island by radio beacon.
The Itasca did make smoke when Earhart was in the general vicinity. However, the smoke did not rise in a vertical column but hugged along the surface of the ocean.
how convenient that they say its in 18k feet of water, deep enough that no one can search it.
The problem is Howland island is 78.33 degrees not 79.6 degrees and the distance is 2556 miles (not 2565 miles) or 2221 nml.
Anyone know of a submarine that can go a check real quick?
The plane landed on Winslow reef , and drifted floating to the west a few days later,
The reef to the North of Winslow reef has been remo ed from google earth
Great investigation!!!!!! What do you think about the recent news january 2024? Please confirm the depth of the sea in the area please!. Great job!
The latest info seems to indicate the sonar image is about 100 miles from Howland not the 27 mentioned in this video, so one or both of the theories are wrong.
157-337 is also 90 degrees of the 67 degrees magnetic (76.5 degree true) which is approximately 1.5 degrees (80 miles north) of Howland.
067° True was the direction of the Sun at sunrise.
@@markprange2430 yes and a 67 degree magnetic (compass) is 80 miles north of Howland on a 76.5 degree true.
"90 degrees off"
@@twright426376.5° is a course line?
@@markprange2430 The true course from Lae to Howland is 78.33 degrees (68.5 degrees magnetic near Howland). A 76.5 degree true (67.03 degree magnetic near Howland) course from Lae to Howland is approximately 80 miles north. Create a map strip of both courses.
She was not solo. She was not alone
Her detailed plan that she made with Gene Vidal before the flight was if she got to Howland and couldn't find it she would still have enough gas to make it to the Gilbert Islands as her alternate landing site. When she said she was low on gas it meant low on gas to find Howland. She still had gas to make it to the Gilberts and with a strong wind from the SE it would have pushed her further north to the Marshall Islands. Many eye witnesses place her at Jaluit in the Marshalls and later taken by the Japanese up on Saipan to a prison there. Admiral Nimitz and 3 Marine Corps Generals all said they knew she died on Saipan. Many others also placed her there. The famous photo of Earhart and Noonan at Jaluit harbor is real. Everything the Marshall Island people have been saying since 1945 is in the photo. The photo shows Fred Noonan and Amelia, the Koshu Maru towing a barge with an aircraft on it. This is EXACTLY what they have been saying they saw since 1945, long before the photo ever surfaced. Don't believe the story about the photo being from a Travel book. That story is definitely fake. The dock they are standing on was built in 1936 so how can the photo show a dock that wasn't built yet be from a 1935 book?
The aircraft did not have the fuel to go back to the Marshalls. Or Gilberts.
Earhart kept meticulous records of her aircraft’s performance. The exact fuel load at Lae is known.
The aircraft was stripped bare at Lae to save weight and squeeze the best possible range from the aircraft. This is documented by the station manager at Lar and Earhart’s diary she mailed home.
And to add icing to the cake, Earhart’s final radio transmissions, her voice was “ near hysterics”. Doesn’t sound like a pilot with about 1 1/2 hours of fuel remaining.
Frank Tallman remarked that her “ I’ll fly to Marshalls “ was a flippant answer to continue support for the trip.
How did you get a 79.6 degree true course? Howland is approximately 56 miles north of the equator and Lae is about 461 miles south of the equator. Even with your distance of 2565 miles will still have it around 78.8 degree.
Maybe I'm missing something, but what radio research place Amelia Earhart's plane northeast of Howland Island at any point? Within 30 miles of the Itasca could be north, south, east, west or any compass points in between.
The fuel situation seems to be subject to debate. All I find are radio log transcriptions and those don't even seem to agree with each other. There is an entry about having 30 minutes of fuel left at 7:30am local, but they are clearly still in flight 8:43am local when reported they are flying a 157/337 line, one hour and 13 minutes later. No mention was made at the latter time of being out of fuel, but this could be due to the radio frequency change. For all I know she expounded at length about their fuel situation and no one heard.
One of the problems with the conflicting information is that Earhart and the Itasca were using different time zones, 30 minutes apart. Modern reporting often gets these confused.
If anything good came from their loss , is that using GMT or Zulu time would now be standard for SAR missions.
The operational range of 30 miles encompasses any direction from the Itasca. Opting for a northeast position for the plane is informed by Noonan's navigation tendencies favoring the northern edge of targets, their average flight speed, the human inclination to overshoot targets, and the extensive search already conducted in the waters south and west of the island. However, it's important to clarify that these decisions are educated guesses, as I lacked direct involvement during the events.
@@AD.Investigates When the Itasca began it’s search, it went up the 337 Sun line, then turned east and made somewhat of a box search. Apparently they thought the same thing.
Well, if The History Channels covers this
They will speculate on a ancient aliens theory
that Amelia was abducted and might return again
someday soon as young as the day the Grays
abducted her.
I believe you pronounce Itasca (eye-task-a)
"Ī"? As in "Īraq"?
So what is the explanation of the Atlantic flight being 60 miles north of the destination?
Oh I see “gathered range” adjustment
7:55 6:20 AM sunrise was seen from what altitude?
I’m CERTAIN others have HAD to have pointed the verbal error @ the
The correct number is 18,000, thanks.
Call James Cameron. 18k feet deep puts it out of range of most everyone else except governments.
Irene Bolam...Amelia Earhart...Buka Island.
A lot of guesses here.
The location of Howland Island was not known exactly. The published coordinates were different. "American Practical Navigator" gave two different positions.
And the amount of atmospheric refraction was variable. Being warmer than standard, one or two arcminutes more refraction might be expected.
In the Nautical Almanac sunrise was estimated only to the nearest minute, introducing ±7 NM of east-west uncertainty.
Calculating more precisely was possible, but variables of barometric pressure and temperature can influence altitude and refraction, and refraction can vary on its own. Even a calculation of sunrise time to within a few seconds should be relied on cautiously.
And how experienced and accurate was Noonan with the Bendix bubble sextant he had?
I've been an Earhart researcher since 1962. I have many boxes of files and research material. All of the BS about Gardner/Nikumaruru Island, losing an antenna, the Japanese mission, and execution on Saipan is just that! BS! The important information and clues as to where she ended up are in the last hours of the Itasca radio logs. I don't know exactly where she ended up. But this scenario is as good as it gets. The recent discovery of an airplane image 18,000 feet down on the ocean floor may not be her Electra. But if it isn't, that would not be a reason to stop searching in that same area. Looking for the Electra in that big ocean is like looking for a Dime with a cellphone camera in a Walmart parking lot. How anyone can still believe that she landed on Gardner Island is insane. There was a British survey party that landed on Gardner in October 1937. They spent 3 days there searching every inch of that island, and no airplane wreckage was found. For reference, that was H.E. Maude surveying the island for the Pacific Island Settlement Scheme (P.I.S.S. for short. Really!). The island was also visited and searched in January of 1941. Again, no wreckage was found. This is a great video. I will subscribe.
Her bones were found on Nikumamoro island. Recent studies of the reports from the doctor who studied the bones have been reexamined and proven to most likely have been hers.
She probably starved to death and her body was eaten by coconut crabs.
The video explaining this is on sandbox news, an award winning aviation channel here on youtube.
The bones were initially studied by a doctor and determined to be of a middle aged Polynesian man 5’ 5” tall. Decades later an Anthropologist, Jantz, examined the written notes. Not the bones. The anthropologist was hired by an organization that has a vested interest in the Nikumaroro hypothesis.
Star Trek Voyager S2E1 provides the definitive answer as to what happened to Amelia and Noonan.
Fred Noonan was an alcoholic whose skills had deteriorated from the disease. Could he stay sober for the flight? We'll never know if this problem was the cause, but must be considered
According to factual evidence, Earhart was in the vicinity of Howland. Noonan did his part correctly. The best that could be achieved with aerial celestial navigation is a fifteen mile radius of error. The radio DF steer was to take them to the island.
According to facts Noonan was a well known drunk, serious drunk. Couple that with Earharts limited skills as a pilot stacked the deck against them especially over the ocean. @@raoulcruz4404
Great logic, Non of that Tigher crap. How could the navel be at Gardner island 1 week after supposed earhart landed there and the search party found nothing. Earhart and noonen would have been jumping up and down with a large help sign onb the beach. How could the plane on Gardner island have vanished so fast?? Not logical. You are right on.
Washed off the reef edge after a few days. Depth at high tide increased a bit each day after supposed landing. Per tighar video info.
This is a job for the Titan Submersib...never mind
Maybe we can re-make the Titan and then try it.
I don't think Noonan was as good of a navigator as they said he was...
Noonan was the best in the business. He was lead navigator for Pan Am. Evidence clearly indicates he got the airplane within the vicinity of Howland. Under ideal conditions, aerial celestial navigation had a 15 mile radius of error. He did his part correctly. The radio DF steer was to take them to the island.
I understand the need to carry as much fuel as possible but why would you abandon life-saving equipment like a raft flying over such an expansive ocean
They needed the range. Weight reduces range. She had compelling reasons to think she could safely reach the island. Part of being a pioneer is taking a risk. When Lindbergh flew the Atlantic he did not carry a life raft.
The chances of being found in a vast ocean is just about zero. They weighed risk against success.
@@raoulcruz4404 And lost, just as the claims about the Titanic..
@@raoulcruz4404 Pioneer of what, exactly? People had made this flight before. She died for nothing.
@@princessofthecape2078 Earhart is considered a pioneer by the aviation community. You don’t have to be first to still be a pioneer. She may not fit your or my definition as such.
One good result of her loss was that the military went to Zulu time (GMT) as a standard. An underlying problem was that Earhart, Itasca, and Hawaii were operating on 3 different time zones.
The news the other day of the guy that believes he may have located the remains of the plane on the bottom of the oceans is intriguing. Let's see what he come up with on his future searches this year or in 2025.
The pacific Ocean Is A VERY "LARGE "PLACE and Amelia's airplane is a VERY "SMALL" plane ... However , That Plane IS out there , SOMEWHERE !
and With TODAYS Technology and in a relatively short time span , and with Tons of flight data and satellite
data they STILL cannot find flight MH370 a HUGE Boeing Passenger Aircraft . So , what are the chances of finding a Tiny 2 Engine airplane that crashed into the South Pacific ocean over EIGHT DECADES Ago ? Little to None is my guess ?
Hope I am wrong ?
Unless you go out there and find the plane there, it's just another theory.
No! really? Do you mean that if his unproven 'theory' isn't proven then it remains unproven? Where would we be without your wisdom.
hmm I think you forgot to include some basic info. IF they were at 1000 ft- HOW FAR could they see? hmm 10 miles? 20? miles. My question is- HOW FAR AWAY from the island would they have to be to MISS the island?
1:49 wasn't navigator window sealed with aluminum in Miami? 4:17 tiny Howland Island would be easy to miss 4:58 Itasca radio log 5:26 key moments
I think that there is plenty of plausibility of them landing on Gardner Island.
They didn’t have enough fuel. Gardner is 400 miles from Howland. The exact fuel consumption of the Electra is known. The exact fuel load is known from Earharts diary she mailed home from Lae and the station manager at Lae. Lockheed engineers determined the aircraft could not have gotten anywhere close to Gardner.
@@raoulcruz4404 You do not know that for certain. How do you account for the later radio transmissions, heard at several locations, by several people, direction finding leading to the area of Gardner island?
@@jason60chev The post crash radio signals were from other searchers and in a couple of instances determined to be a deliberate hoax. At one point the Itasca heard a transmission they thought was from Amelia. They responded and proceeded to that direction. Turns out it was radio calls from a British ship helping with the search. Searchers were using her call sign, which brought confusion. Adding to that was the Press listening to these transmissions hungering for a lead story and they ran with whatever they could.
As for the DF signals pointing to Gardner, they also pointed to the American Samosas. In one instance a signal pointed to an island off Russia. A certain non-profit aircraft recovery organization harps on 2 DF bearings and deliberately ignores all the rest.
Bottom line is that with all the known, documented data, the aircraft could not have reached Gardner. This was established by Lockheed.
Gardner was searched at the behest of Mr. Putnam. He was desperate to find Amelia.
As for the Klenck radio transcript, that is a person listening to a radio play. Said aircraft recovery group twists it to be from AE.
Everyone keeps saying she did not have enough fuel to get from Howland to Gardner. Guess what? She wasn’t at Howland, otherwise she would not have been lost.
No one knows how much fuel she had left at 0745. “Running low” can easily mean she was nearing her reserve. Anyone who flies knows that you plan about a 20% fuel reserve. That would have been at least 4 hours, which was enough to get to Gardner.
You need to talk to Bob Ballard of anyone can find that plane its him.
He already tried and failed
@@DSToNe19and83 took him 3 times to find the titanic but found it keep trying.
@@karrahredick9057 most likely government funding. Remember, the only way he was to find the titanic was how soon he could find the nuclear subs! He literally only had 10 days after find the uss thresher, I could be wrong on the sub, but he was working for the government and titanic was a easy a find with government funded tools.
This makes sense, we'll see if anyone with $$$ and equipment actually pays attention.
This is not correct..they don’t want you to find her…or Fred N.
Silly question ..but ..did your calculations use miles or knotical miles ? ..also was the sunrise calculations by the navigator effected by his altitude ? ..where was the radio ship located on the map ?
Nautical miles. Noonan would have factored altidute into his calculations. The radio ship is labled Itasca, on the map 9:00, just northwest of the island. Thanks.
@@AD.Investigatesyou only used Lae’s latitude (461) when calculating the true course of 79.6. You have to add Howland’s 56 miles which would give you 517 miles and a true course of 78.
Somebody should contact james cameron, bob ballard and give them info. If they can find titanic maybe they can find earharts plane. They certaintly have the resources.
Still no wiseer
With it's fuel tanks empty, how long would it have floated?
Interesting question. The unknown is how much damage the aircraft received when it ditched. I would guess it could float for a couple of hours if the fuel tanks were not damaged.
Likely, as most aircraft do, it flipped upside down when it ditched. They drown before it sank. The deal is, that you just don't really get much practice in ditching airplanes into water. Physics does it's thing. Staying upright is near impossible but for the very seasoned pilots. In any case, if it remained upright, it wouldn't take long to sink. Probably a few minutes. They are just not terribly seaworthy, airplanes.
Again.... empty tanks? Rightside, upside.... the plane would have floated long enough to get out. Bottom line.... out in the middle of the ocean....better to get it over with. @@jimflys2
I though its on the beach of an island, upside down.
Is it 1,800 or 18,000 miles that have been searched?
18,000
1800 [voiceover] or 18000 [text] sq. miles ? Did they calculate using Statute miles or Nautical miles ?
Nautical charts, Nautical miles. One Nautical Mile (Imperial). Nautical miles are used to measure the distance traveled through the water. A nautical mile is slightly longer than a mile on land, equaling 1.1508 land-measured (or statute) miles. The nautical mile is based on the Earth's longitude and latitude coordinates, with one nautical mile equaling one minute of latitude. In the United Kingdom, the length of the nautical mile was defined by its relation to the Admiralty knot, 6,080 imperial feet per hour, so 1 imperial nautical mile is about 1,853.181 meters. The imperial nautical mile was often called an Admiralty mile, or more correctly, an Admiralty measured mile.
18,000
It's time for someone to step up and continue the deep water search begun by Ted Waitt. Bring back "Ginger" and "Mary Ann" or a new autonomous deep sea submersible. I'm looking at you Musk, Bezos, and Zuckerburg.