The Absurdity of a 9 Darter
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- Опубликовано: 7 июл 2024
- A 9-dart leg is one of the most incredible sporting events you can witness. But what is the actual probability of a player hitting one?
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As someone’s whose only halfway between your amateur and decent player I once hit B2B 180’s…then proceeded to miss the board entirely with the 7th dart.
Nerves gave me a 0% chance on that one
Now that’s a story that inspires 😂
Exactly the same happened to me
Nerves? Never had a 180! Bottle always goes on third dart and I hit 3×1 or similar.
Some people just call it shit.
Same here. After hitting B2B 180's, I managed to lose the leg in 8th round without even trying a double, lol.
hit B2B 180s end of last year, but missed 7th dart too ;)
MVG has actually had 18 perfect darts but it wasn't 2 9 darters, still impressive.
That didn’t happen lol
@@yooyoo8637it did
@@yooyoo8637it was 17 perfect darts. He missed double 12 for back to back 9 darters.
He hit the double the leg before he hit the nine, so technically……….
@@andrewcheyne9917 it was actually 23. The previous six darts were also perfect
This reminds me of the story of the guys who absolutely rinsed bookmakers by betting on Pro golf events to have a hole-in-1. Some bookies used to look up the clubhouse stats for the course being played, and calculate the odds of a hole-in-1 from these stats - not considering that those figures are largely produced from amatuer players and pros playing the course should have a far higher likelyhood of a hole-in-1. The moral being that Elite pro sportpeople are usually significantly better than a purely theoretical analysis would suggest.
I remember that. The bookies back then were more focused in horse, dog racing etc & didn't cotton on to how often hole-in-ones were happening in tournament play. The 2 blokes had a syndicate going as they were being banned from bookies countrywide 😂😂😂
Michael van Gerwen hit another one in Wetzlar, Germany, on 3rd January 2024. It was a Darts Gala that wasnt on television. But the whole arena flipped out. Ive never seen one before and on my first Darts event I visited, I saw one right away! amazing😋
I worked there, and exactly when i made a small break and watch the game, he hit the 9-darter
I was also there. It was incredible.
I really like the way you present things, fast, concise, full of examples and comparisons!
The average score of a 100 includes the pro player aiming for doubles and singles to set up doubles at the end of legs. It's not a true representation of aim. It might not be all that far off, but the best way to track this stat would be to only look at the percentage of trebles hit on the first 3-6 darts of each leg.
Yep that's true! The calculated average is a "first 9 dart" average, so they're actually roughly 38, 85, 95 or something like that
and there is luke
MVG hit two 9 darters in a first to 6 legs match v Ryan Murray.
2 in a row?
@@jamesBFC1887 No.
But 2 in a very short match.
And MVG had beef with the ref.
Televised?
MVG at his peak was inhuman
@@HowIsThat69 It's on youtube. Wasn't a major, was a floor event.
I think the probability of the best pro dart players to hit treble or double is close to 50% IF they are "in the zone" but it's still very unlikely to hit a 9 darter, you not only need to be in a flow state you need a lot of luck on top of that
thats stil (0.5^9) which is approx 0.2% or 1 in 500. To win the PDC Worlds, you need 96 legs (assuming you win all sets in 3 legs). so you only have a 1 in 5 chance with a 50% hit rate. van gerwens perfect 17 is out of this world.
i think a full analysis probably shows that grouping is a huge part of getting 9 darters as I think they're more prevelant in the world than the stats suggest.
@@sameerpatel105 17 perfect darts from MVG seems as unlikely as the Michael Smith 9 darter against MVG, 17/18 perfect darts, there's more to it than calculating the average probability, for instance when you are on a nine darter on the third visit you probably feel much more pressure messing with the probability of accomplish a 9 darter
Yeah cause once they’re in a rhythm most players if they hit the first 60 will often follow up with two more due to their excellent muscle memory, but nerves get to all but the absolute elite the further down the road you get
@@sameerpatel105 The problem with this video (although I liked it) is that he expresses an event as beeing rng, while it actually isn`t. There is always some rng involved, but in the end, it`s skill. 9 Darter is not getting lucky. It just reflects on the current state of the sport, nothing more. If you would throw for some "million years", you would learn to beat this game after some hundered years already, and only throw 9 Darts...
Would probably consider myself on the "Decent" level. Have had one shot at D12 for a 9 in my life, missed it just outside. 1 in 500,000 - divide by 4 because I didn't hit the double - that's 1 in 125,000 which I reckon is about right for how much I've played over the last 10 years. Cool vid! Love the simulations.
I once knew this guy, or maybe he was a concept, who called himself, I believe, ‘Bambi’. He once hit a 9 darter while riding a unicycle, and proceeded to go back to his hotel room with a variety of supermodels, both male and female. It was carnage.
@@Dylan-gq3uu Why is it so hard to believe this guys story? Jealousy?
@@rorus9530 First off, what do you even mean? Also me and my dad are pretty good at darts and the most perfect darts weve ever thrown in a row is 3
@@rorus9530"I would consider myself decent" then goes on to say he hit 8 perfect darts and just missed the double 12.
Hopefully you’d have gotten a bit better after the first couple billion years
Great video man
First time viewer here. Did not expect that level of mathematical detail! Great video!
Excellent video mate! Showing this to the old man
Would love more darts stats! Great video
Such a good video , really insightful
Great Video! I would love to hear more about the mathmatics behind Darts. For instance I have always wondered what region it would be best to aim at for different skill levels. I can't imagine that it is always the T20, since it is right next to 1&5 and newbies might just miss the board completely half the time, when aiming so far up and are better off aiming at the bulls eye. Also I think it would be interesting to simulate the average over the normal distribution, to see how exactly it behaves and why. Cheers :)
If you can't regularly at least hit the single 20, I think the best region to go for is the 11 14 and 9 bit
@@StatsUnited Interesting. There's only two places on the board where there's two adjacent double-digit numbers: 11 14 and 10 15. And yeah, a 9 for missing is better than 6, so I think you're right.
An interesting thing to consider when thinking about the theoretical amateur attempting the 9 darter: how much better/more accurate would they get during the sheer amount of time it would take them to hit one, and how would it change the estimated amount of time for them to get one... my assumption is that given this person doesn't get tired and is capable of throwing darts all day and night without breaks, they'd have to improve to the skill level of "decent" within a couple days, right?
I was looking for this comment LOL
Cool vid and interesting perspective 👍
Brilliant video mate very interesting
Very interesting! Would be nice to see how these estimates compare to the number of 9 dart finishes seen professionally. Seems like maybe the two biggest shortcomings of the model are the assumption of uniformity in the parameters of the model (some doubles are harder than others so, for example, you could adjust the variance of the normal distribution as you move across the board) and the lack of dependence between throws (momentum / being in the zone could have a big effect in reality)
The bigger problem I believe is uniformity in the probability of (pro) players.
Then there’s stuff like marker darts that factor in, it’s a lot easier to hit a treble with 2 others in there already
@@Pokjhbvcfnot always. sometimes it's really hard to get the third one in because one of the others are blocking the bed.
One of the coolest videos ive seen in a long time
interesting video, in the gaming speedrunning community there is a channel called "summoning" salt. this video gives me a bit of that vibe. good job.
solid stats for the traditional 9-darter - don't think the results would be too skewed if you took into account other variations (e.g. involving the bullseye)
Great video! The closest I've ever come to a 9 darter was 5 trebles in a row. So still a long way to go for me 😂
your editing is class
unlike his statistics
I live for this shit. Not darts - couldn't really give a fuck tbh. But bridging the gap between intellectualism and entertainment. And you're on to a winner.
You're doing great, my friend. Keep grinding. And in my view, the more maths, the better.
You got this!
My mates been playing darts everyday for a while now. He’s really quite good. He went absolutely mental when he almost got 180, he got 2 triple 20s and a triple 5. If it’s that hard to get 180 imagine getting the triple 20 7 times in a row then all the rest too
They say cricket is a gentleman's game
Equestrian is the sport of the Kings
But, if there was ever a sport of the Gods, surely it would have to be the Darts!!
Absolutely magical and mesmerizing at times.
right? how good is darts
Will we see one tomorrow in the World Championship final? 👇
Luke littler. Not Darts fan but rooting for him to win ❤
NO lol
Well yes he lost
So you're telling me there's a chance!
That's all that one in a million talk.
Also check out Niko Springer's 9 darter. Every dart thrown by BOTH players was perfect, more perfect than the MVG Smith 'best leg ever'.
Also Momo Zhou's phantom 9 darter - hers was pretty absurd. She died suddenly, shortly after aged only 31.
Big numbers are hard to comprehend.
I remember when Phil Taylor hit two nine darters in one match. That's got to be one of the best achievements possible in sport.
MVG has done it too btw. Was in a protour Match, so Not in Television, but documented.
I almost did it once, but, unfortunatelly, I missed the first dart :(
You'll do it next time mate definitely
If your aim is to get a 9 darter then it would take significantly less time as you’d give up after the first miss but if the aim is to play a leg of darts then it would take significantly more time as you’d have to throw more than 9 darts on a failed attempt
The opening statement 😂
still yet for my first 180 :) closest I got was treble 20, treble 20, treble 1 I was very sad, few 140's
Few feelings can rival that first 180, keep at it mate
Its called triple and not treble you bafoons
if we wanted to calculate "Best case scenario" for the worlds best players on a good day (105-110 avg), we could assume a Hit rate of 45% for the first dart and if that's in they got the height and everything, so 2nd dart is probably 66% and 3rd dart 50%. Using that, we would end up on a 0.327% Chance, which is every 300th leg roughly. 8 Perfect darts then happen twice as often (0.654%), 7 perfect darts 1% of the time and 6 perfect darts 2.2% of the time. Seems more like it to me!
Norwich themed darts for the B-roll, we are fucking massive
What is the likelihood in a double in format where you can't start scoring until you hit a double?
I’d love to see the science of 147s in snooker. I’d assume it’s an astronomically lower chance of an amateur scoring a 147 compared to a 9 darter. With a hole in one, an amateur has a pretty good chance of getting one on a par 3 at some point in their life if they play enough.
As a poor geography sutdent who writes his statistics exam soon this video was existencial dread
To point out, these probabilities don’t include the overlap from one treble to the treble next to them making the probabilities lower as if you hit the wrong double, it also means you don’t throw the 9 dart game
I think it does take that into account. The 33% pro treble hit rate for example means that they hit the treble that they are AIMING AT 33% of the time, not just any ol treble.
My perception of 9 darters have been skewed due to playing Pro Darts game series in mobile and always doing 180s that i was even surprised 9 darters weren't a normal occurence due to it being so easy in the game.
I was once on for a 9 darter. Just missed one dart (it was the first dart, so gave up after that!)
Still stuck on double one, but thanks
Please make a vid on how the fifa world rankings work, or how chess elo works. Maybe on the best method to determine the best team in the world/in a given region with math
World rankings vid is in the works!
@@StatsUnited lets goooo
I love it. You gotta figure that even if you're ability is zero when you start, you're going to improve pretty quick throwing an end a minute for a week lol. How you model that is another question.
your
Best I’ve done is a 301 in 8 darts double in double out.
4:32 Michael van Gerwen came very close in December 2012
one issue with this is you haven't taken into account the difficulty of hitting certain doubles.
"Legolas" grins at your calculations, gets up and says: "Hold my Miruvórë...." ...LOL
Can someone tell me the probability of MVG and Smith hittin 8 perfect and a 9 darter in the same leg?
Norwich flights. Good man.
Yes mate
Great video! You should cover a 147 in snooker, the hardest thing to do in sport
Think the stats will show the percentage is higher, the difference is that most players don't go for the 147 as they prefer to win the frame than take on a early risky black. thats why you don't see it often.
@@sameerpatel105 Very good point. There is no extra risk to go for a 9 darter, but if your black is in a wonky position in snooker, most players will rather go with a lower number and win the frame. Even at the highest snooker level you will need to be very determined to go for a 147
There's far fewer frames played than legs thrown which has to increase the likelihood of a 9 darter.....
Also is a 147 really harder? Some argue that it takes 37 perfect shots but let's face it for a pro at least 25 of those would be 99.9% certainties.....
Also a lot more luck involved in a 147. You get a good split off the break for a great player the odds of a 147 probably aren't as ridiculous as you'd think. Didn't Ronnie call one of his after the first red??
@1evilpie I mean, in my opinion the numbers alone make a 147 harder. You need to link up 36 perfect shots, but with darts you have to throw 9 separate perfect darts.
You can’t fluke a successful dart. In snooker aim for one pocket and red goes in another (Cliff Thorbon’s) 147 at WC v Griffith I think.
You need to recalculate to probability reduces by a factor of 10 if your opponent is James wade
I would say that it is not that easy to calculate the “true” probability, since if a pro darts player hit T20 with his first dart, chances are actually higher to hit it also with the second dart and so on. Darts has a lot to do with muscle memory and mentality. Nevertheless a great video to think about that topic!
I’d argue it’s much easier to lay a dart on top, or bang one in off the previous dart-it’s not just about muscle memory. I’ve hit ~500 180s and it’s always way easier with a good lie.
I was thinking the same thing. It is not a game of pure numbers if a pro player is in the flow they beat their own averages.
Feels like there are more 9 darters in major events than there should be statistically.
You can never calculate "true" probability for real life sports. There's always going to be unaccounted variables. The video was just a rough approximation, but yes accounting for your variable would make it slightly more accurate.
Loving the flights😍 I have them too🔰 OTBC
Plot twist: he aimed for the center on the last shot and it landed on the 9 double =18 instead.
So what you're telling me is, there's a chance yeah?
Would be fun is someone would count al legs thrown in 2023 in any professional event and counted how many of those legs ended up with a 9 darter just to see if the math worked
I hit a nine darter before, but she goes to a different school, so you wouldn't know her..
So me and my pals always argue which is the hardest to do. A hole in one (golf), a 147 break (snooker) or a 9 darter. Statistically I’m unsure if you could compare due, especially for golf as the variability of conditions and hole is so great. But with a few assumptions it would be interesting to see if you could come up with a model to answer the debate.
At least for snooker it depends so much on your opponent's skill level. If an amateur challenges a top lvl pro and the amateur messes up by doing the split, the maximum break won't be too challenging to the pro.
Hole in one is the easiest of those, I play golf and darts and you dont need to be a professional to do a hole in one, my dad plays golf and did a couple of holes in one, its almost impossible for a bad darts player to do a 9 darter, a hole in one is only one lucky shot...
i dont know anything about golf but i think 147 is much harder than 9 darter. u have to hit the table perfectly only 9 times, while in snooker you have to complete 36 perfect shots.
@@Schattenlord92 147 break is when you clear the snooker table in 1 attempt, so that means you cant miss, so it doesnt depend on your opponent's skill level.
@@TheKenny195yes but a poor opponent is more likely to leave a favourable split of the balls meaning the 147 is more likely
Thanks from my left ear
It could be related to the accent, and my inability to do mental math certainly plays a factor, but this is the first time I've watched a youtube video at LESS THAN 1.0x speed
Wow. Where are you from that makes my accent hard to understand?
You should join our Thursday afternoon table
42 segments, 20 doubles, 20 trebles, 20 fat, 20 skinny, inner bull, outer bull, miss section, 42?
The meaning of darts, the universe and everything.
Any amateur playing for these lengths of time will eventually become pro and hit a 9 darter in way less time than specified here.
the closest i got weas 5 treble 20's and after that i missed everything lol.
gues my best leg was like an 12 or 13 darter.
Brendan Dolan on the bull.... The history maker
Maybe this is a stupid question but why not have the outside be the treble ?
I get it’s slightly smaller but if you miss you still get points, if it were on the edge you are more likely to get 0 for a miss.
That also makes finishing on a double easier. If you had to finish in the treble zone you would be more likely to bust.
The double's have more Area than the tripple's. Its not hard to get the hight its left or right.
@@schulerlukas2720 yea but if you miss the treble you are still scoring points.
Going for treble 20 and missing all 3 scores you 60 points. If you missed high going for the double you could walk away with 0.
And then like I said it makes finishing easier since half the time you miss it’s outside the board and you can’t go bust.
The even greater feat is hitting a double start double finish 9, and a straight start double finish. Even more so on TV. And only one player has ever achieved that.
7 % hit rate for an amateur on doubles? The Dartbot has left the chat. The closest I've got to a 9 was 2 T20's in a row lol! Kind of depressing to think that even if I were to play darts for eternity, I would still never hit a 9-darter.
you forgot to account for the possibility that instead of hitting treble 20 you miss so much you hit treble 18 which means a 9 darter is still possible
This would be far more mathematically sound if you:
1. Used only throws from the first 3, maybe 6 darts.
2. Determined the empirical distribution without assuming a normal for no reason
3. Compared to actual numbers from pro games
Can you compare this with a 147 and hole in one?
With the hours required for an amateur to hit - they would certainly become a pro by the end and their chances would significantly increase!
4:20 trust me mate, after 1 million years of throwing I'd get 9 darters with my eyes closed.
imagine throwing darts non stop for a million years, and still be considered an amateur.
>2:16
From where do those values come from?
Gone 5 perfect darts before but that's it
Can you explain how there is 42 segments please?
Oh shit no 😂. I think I must have forgot the single segments, so it's actually 62 (or 82 if you count the fat and skinny bits separately). Either that or i was using a Yorkshire board!
To be fair an amateur trying to hit a 9 darter for years he will eventually be a pro being able to hit one.
Accurate yeets.
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If every throw would be different and only the last throw would be the one to do it than yes you are correct, but if every throw would be different but the order random than it would be half of the time but with that same time as a discrepancy making your time the guaranteed time but very unlikely the correct one.
great video, but this doesn't take into consideration the intangibles e.g talent, cope under pressure and as you mentioned the first dart being a marker. (and a 147 and hole in one are still harder)
but how many hours does it take to go from amateur to pro ? than you get better figures
Van Gerwen managed two in 5 legs ruclips.net/video/yqTGtwOpHu8/видео.html, Phil Taylor on TV managed two in a TV final in 14 legs ruclips.net/video/LPz5qNX4Ojk/видео.html he actually did 16 perfect darts in a row too
1:35
There are four thousand ways to hit a 9er?
No!
There only 71 possible ways.
3944 actually en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine-dart_finish
My best effort was 180, 120 (bounce out 60), 141 (hit T7 instead of T19 trying to set up the D12 for the 10th dart)
Thats funny
In Germany we say "Geschichten aus´m Paulanergarten"
So if it's 1 in 10,000 for a professional to get a 9 darter, then the odds of the leg of MVG vs. Michael Smith occurring which had 17 perfect darts must be like 10s of millions to 1? I say that rather than 100 million to 1 since they are among the best and Michael Smith was in very strong form.
Phil Taylor hit two in one match, and Gerwyn Price hit two on the one night in the Premier League
do ‘the absurdity of a 147’ (snooker) 👍🏻
So basically, I have no chance.
Pretty much
I reckon after the first 1000 hours the beginner would get their eye in.
The top pros generally average in the low to mid 90's.
I used to play low pub league level darts & have hit 7 perfect darts a twice & 8 once. In practice, no pressure games, I reckon your pros are hitting them on a regular basis
There's a little hole in your theory. The amateurs would get better if they were constantly throwing darts so the likelihood of hitting trebles would keep increasing as they kept throwing them
what is the song at the begining
Skates by Fred Mug - there's a link to his channel in the description!