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Great discussion and Excellent content !

This guy has no idea... No idea of what is ahead for the Rockingham area and clearly no understanding of mining, its drivers or the Perth property market. Sounds like another salty eastern states property investor who missed out on the first stage of the Perth boom.

Stated all the facts representing a downturn but ignored all the counter-factors i.e: -Highest population growth in Oz per capita -Population growth not only immigration rather interstate migration is a large part of the mix -Largely undervalued property market -Perth has the best bang for buck property so the median house price is a little misleading relative to the other cities. You're getting a lot more house/--land/location for your money in WA. I have to say you sound like a lot of my connects over east who missed the boat in WA and are now overly pessimistic about it as a result. At least you revealed that you don't own property in WA at the end of the video which provides a little context. Video would've been more credible if you hadn't chosen to ignore all of the positives. I'm also not surprised that you're encouraging people to buy in Melbourne and I'm taking a wild guess that you own property there.

Sqm research says rockingham vacancy rate is 0.9 not 2.63. Has also rents rising. Please include the source of your data.

When will people learn......Australian housing has NOTHING to do with supply and demand It has to do with wealthy investors( many foreign) looking for an inflation hedge to put their money into. That inflation is Australian housing......sorry Australian middle class.

How come you're not wearing your yarmulke? Mom and Dad would be very upset!

Perth in 2023 is nothing like 2012/13. 1. Different stages in mining and resource projects. Previously the boom was on the design and construction phase of the project. Once design is done and construction reaches peak employment. Currently these projects are at the operating stage and have long lives. 2. While WA is generally better at building adequate housing supply the numbers getting built don't match the previous price boom. There is no employment flight on the horizon and we're not building enough houses unfortunately. Were likely seeing a long term secular change in Perth and WA. The state is about to clock over 3 million people, most confined to the south west.

Mining is currently in a downturn, so why is Perth’s property market booming? This video is just hyperbolic clickbait.

This guy is a jerk, obviously not a West Aussie. He is so full of shit😊😊

Perth is a mining town - boom and bust

You need to Change your Name Man

I personally think house should not be an investment vehicle. House is a place to stay and raise family. Thank you.

what I hate is seeing Indians etc doing posts on how to come to WA and how and where to buy land, for immigrants coming here

I live in Perth. Thanks mate. Get a real job

You are spot on.. Perth is the greatest boom bust city you will ever see.. in 2011 the bank value my house in Nedslands at $3 million. Three years later sold it due to divorce. Got $2.3 million. Look at the history and it repeats itself

What about Cockburn Central?

Another 10% next year followed by 5% then cruise mode for a bit. Perth is a machine and speaking to people who live there, love it and people are making the move west. Cost of buildings are going up, new estates opening up make the developed areas look more appealing which lift their values. New houses once built (12 months away) will be snapped up by the influx. Sure, not every suburb will continue on this growth but overall, great place to live and still relatively affordable with high wages.

That is interesting. A lot of Property analysts are saying Perth still has a few years of fundamental growth but you’re the only person warning that the boom will end sooner than later. So I’m listening all ears to everyone’s views especially yours with your mining background

Mining booming?

You can’t even say the names properly

Learn how to say Wanneroo, you peanut. If you can’t say the suburb name right, you probably shouldn’t talk about it. 😂

Could you please deep dive Wollert in Melbourne

Adam, could you do a deep dive on Melbourne please

Your analysis is quite superficial and lacks supporting evidence. Perth's growth is expected to continue for another 3-4 years, leading the nation. Meanwhile, Sydney's decline has already begun and is likely to persist for several years. Western Australia's economy is no longer solely dependent on mining, especially since iron ore prices have been declining since last year. Perth also has the highest population growth rate in the country, with its housing supply being easily absorbed, which drives demand and leads to price increases. The city boasts some of the country's most beautiful beaches, and the government is investing in the tourism industry, which has the potential to generate more revenue than mining. Perth is a modern city with excellent infrastructure, well-designed streets, and high-quality amenities across its suburbs. Additionally, the WA government is financially robust with zero debt, unlike other states such as Victoria, which are already struggling financially.

I’m looking at buying or building in next 12 months & will be following your channel closely the whole way🥳

How about Mandurah Meadow springs etc

Well said

All property values are very very over valued! Need severe correction and bubble must burst!

We always get slammed with negativity, people know the east is not that great, yes we may have some shoddy builders and low supply, but lifestyle and weather is getting better, we have advanced a lot and we hold a lot of events now and the UFC and other big names have recognised us. East is wet and miserable Birssy is ok, but the way their houses are made out of wood which I would not be confident in buying over double-bricked houses here says everything. Melbourne is cold, Sydney is overrated. People just use the oh WA is far away as their excuse but in reality know e have it all. flat smooth wide road great nature, close to asia and Europe. And have diversity like never before. We have a Quay. We have a beautiful skyline. SO many things that the east doesn't have. I wouldn't move anywhere else. Perth will surpass other states in time, Perth is one of the cleanest and safest cities as well.

1, There is NO major projects current/planned in the mining industry, just maintenance that pays low. 2, Wages are about the same as 10 years ago (people forget mining wages halved in 2016-2019) they have only risen back to 2014 levels, yet inflation is about 60% more so buying power is weak. 3, Cost of housing from 2014 is about 60% higher (wages haven’t moved), 4, Remember 2016 when Perth property dived and became the repo capital of Oz (mines laid off thousands) and lasted till 2019 /2020 until Covid. 5, About 40% of purchases are investment (no renters, market gets flooded with for sales like 2016-2019). 6, When building catches up and the job market dives (about 24 months I recon) this place will be on its arse like 2016-2019. History is repeating ....

The main difference between West Australia's economy and the remainder of the nation is......... West Australia's economy is primarily export focused. That is, earning export dollars to keep the nation out of "third world status". Where as the eastern states economy is simply catering to local demand, and not export focused. In summary, WA exports a shit loads more than it imports (living within its means) while the east exports very little and imports heaps (living beyond its means). In the ACT, its all paper shuffling, massive BS production and SFA nothing else - The home of the parasitic ATO.

who obviously have never visited perth

you are an idiot

All the speculation and spruiking by someone who doesn’t know what they’re talking about. This is exactly why we need to remove all tax incentives for existing properties. As well as restrict LMI to only first home buyers, remove red tape around new developments and medium density in existing suburbs, stop non citizens from being allowed to buy property, increase immigration of skilled construction trades and meanwhile need to increase regulation of the building code (to chase cowboy builders). We need to stop speculation and massively increase the supply while not building defect riddled houses or only building sky scrapers with shoebox apartments.

Neighbours in Perth Indian 4bedroom 2 people to each room -8 paying $700per week before Covid it was rented $350. Our rent also same but one income family of 6. Perth was attractive with lower rents might as well head back East & pay high rents there closer to family with better lifestyles. Perth not worth the high costs anymore also miners we know live elsewhere in Bali, house share or fly interstate.

Sounds a lot more like hopium and guessing than any real forecasting / legitimate research. What happens if I/O prices don't drop off a cliff as you expect? How long is the normal up cycle of Perth property?

Perth will go down lockstep with iron ore volumes and prices falling as china slows overbuilding for the next 20 years.

I think you are looking at one factor in isolation. What percentage of residential properties are owned by people with mortgages, and are thus depending on mining? The dependence of the Perth 'economy' on mining does not necessary highly correlate to property valuations. People spend their money on many things. I have not seen data on the correlation. If there is a major collapse in employment then this will likely have an impact on property values, but I am not sure how great that would be. I would argue the wealthy who own a significant portion of residential properties will not be greatly affected. Any such unemployment effect will surely be offset by the forthcoming reduction of interest rates, which is expected to trigger a second wave of property increases. Further, the Perth market is undervalued and an increasingly good investment for people out of state. Just my view.

What I genuinely don’t get is how you go from building approval to there being this instant supply. A building approval is just that, an approval. The actual structure has to then b be built which can take up to 18 months for a single dwelling let alone anything else. To build this number of homes that are approved requires a tonne of skilled labour which is currently low in WA. Away from all of the above, Perth is still the most affordable capital city aside from Hobart and Darwin, so buying pressures increase even greater is people move for that reason. The more people, the more jobs are required to service those people and more homes required. There’s like multiple steps missing in your analysis.

lol you didnt know coal is f all in the west?

Great video

I want to retire in Perth, so I'm definitely looking at a buying opportunity. Can you help me buy a property?

There is a lot of money left in Perth. I’m currently living on it. Sucks to be you, you broke arse hobos.

Burwood Vic is a good suburb. I know it well. I have lived in Camberwell for 25 years.

Perth is severely under valued, WAKE UP

OMG. You just copied every other RUclipsr who said this same thing, but weeks ago.

the last mining down turn was the end of construction boom and huge job losses suddenly came they also had 3x more people then they needed on maintenance jobs, i know i was there. This time its all production and the mining companies have worked out exactly how many people they need. Most of the mines will remain open as we are one of the lowest cost in the world. Also some mines are coming to there end of life and will need to be replaced which requires a huge amount of people for construction. Saying that i can see Perth going up like 15 to 20% more then peaking.

Hi I guess you calculated wrong because even if Iron ore price goes down its place will take by gold, lithium and others. As gold and lithium price is going crazy high.

Unfortunately your iron ore vs house price analyses are faulty. 1. IO price boomed 2016-19, your IO blue line rose from $60bil to $150bil. Yet Perth house prices were on a decline in this period, thus no relationship. 2. The IO blue line represents $dollar (affected by $price/ton) but not the tonnages. The tonnages could well stay the same levels requiring the same amount of workforce.

Hey Adam, where did you get those individual suburb break downs of supply and demand, what source is that available on ?