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Sentiment can change very fast.

Thats rugpull coin. Avoid it at any cost

Yep Alex, also possible too 👍🔥

That’s why you look for confluence

Thanks, definitely a lot of red signs.

Hi 👋 thank you

I like your ambition, but it's not forcing the narrative at all. Nor is it invalid. It's a workaround with the new rules and guidelines. There is a reason why they changed it - it's because there has been enough observations within the markets that they would go that length to change it. If that isn't something you agree with, you can bring it up to EWI. re wave 3: Although not invalid, replacing the (A) with the iii would be so subjective that you are risking the whole macro structure to be completed as a truncated 5th of the lesser degree. But I'm not sure what the goal of that would be, or whether you are trying to be creative here - because the end goal is literally the same for the termination point for wave iv. If you're looking for a deeper wave 4 because the specific separation it gives as you may be trying to achieve, I would say good luck in trying to find a group of people who would agree with that. The mystery wave you mention as an expanded flat is also completely fine as is. I'm almost certain that if we gathered up enough people who were versed in the wave theory would agree to do the same.

Wave 1 can be any length if you look at the latest book, so it is valid. So we can get that out of the way. May not be the best looking, but we've seen them happen enough.

@@garylew5234 True, but I use it when I have a cluster of waves off bottom that need to be turned into a diagonal to make sense of things. Which I am sure that is why they changed it, as happens frequently enough. I certainly do not project a wave, especially one that size, using that new rule. No way.

@@XForceGlobal 1) Truncation issue: There is not a choice between truncation and normal waves. It is a choice between truncation or ugly/non-existent waves. (a) to make sense of the wave Dec 2023, many put a wave 1 at Sept 2023. But it is 100% forced as there is no wave 1 there. Pure fantasy. (b) So, then wave 1 was tried at June 2023. So we break up what was a macro sideways wave. And you get a wave 2 that has a 98% retrace. How often does that occur? (c) try the truncation. Put a channel on pivots 1,2,3,4 in log scale and see how nice it is. And with Blackrock and such Krakens putting a hard price stop, truncation does make sense there. 2) Diagonal using the new rule Often off the bottom, we often get a cluster of overlapping waves, that we have to make a diagonal out of. I'm sure that is the reason for the new rule. But I would never "project" using the new rule, and not for a wave form so large. I use that rule after-the-fact only, when I see I have to turn that cluster into a diagonal using the new rule.

@@johnhoward2337 Tbh, I'm not sure what you are saying. I guess it just boils down to how you personally see the markets. The only thing that I can mention is that a truncation is extremely rare, and so is the expanded diag - so there is some middle ground to say the least. We've never seen a truncation happen in Bitcoin's macro structure - ever, but, expanded diags although rare, have been observed quite a bit.

Hi, thank you for the feedback. Very difficult price action as all of them have their drawbacks. Especially on this low volume!

Theoretically possibly. But that's in theory. Practically, if anyone can give me the same exact pattern where wave Y has ended as a triangle, I am all ears - but I have yet to see one yet. It does open it up for interpretation and case studies, but that's about it. We have to work upon what the general markets see, not the other way around where we as Elliott Practioners see everything first.

You're most certainly welcome!

Hi Jake. I like the idea for having a triangle for a wave Y - but only in theory and as a case study. It does open it up for discussion, but to be honest, we have never seen that happen in Bitcoin's price action in any bull or bear run. It's so incredibly rare, by the time you have something that might resemble a triangle, you already might be in a distributive 1-2 count (which is actually something we need to take into consideration for the bearish case).

I never said it was invalidated, I just think it's unlikely. Disagreeing with other bulls with another low is just my personal opinion. Extending the wave 4 down is just unlikely in my opinion. If you look at the previous bear market, the wave 4 was quite swift with a strong V shape recovery. I think this current consolidation is either completely done and we are going up now with a 1-2, or, the bearish scenario is just coming into play. I don't think there will be any in betweens. Just my opinion! Thank you.

Hi, thanks for the feedback. I think it's impossible to know at this point, but everything is so far just an opinion and trying to better us for a preparation of either the bullish or bearish idea. If it goes with the bullish route, fantastic. If it goes the bearish route, at least we will know what to avoid (longer time and size wave 4), and position ourselves for a possible short.

Hi Gary, thanks. I tried my best :/ As you can see, I agree with the bulls up to a certain extent, and then it immediately turns into a bearish sentiment. It's really a mixed balance approach from a top down analysis. I agree (re: some are bearish on the micro timeframes, but bullish on the macro), that we won't be seeing a larger wave 4.

@@XForceGlobal Yeah, like you said in the video with the venn diagram. Maybe you can add that into one of the public vids because it really did help clear up a lot of things. I agree with every scenario you have as they aren't invalid. They are very clear 👍 I think the smaller degree counts are useless at the moment, so I'm glad you went over the macro because we do have a very good spot for a wave 4 to be finished.

@@garylew5234 I'll try and put that in the next video on how we can separate all of the scenarios and reduce a lot of the macro timeframe structures. The point of the video was to make sure that we have a clear macro structure of a psosible wave 4 already being structured in <3 And yep, smaller degree counts right now are pretty useless. I can't see any great counts until we actually get out of here. Drawbacks of the wave theory I guess :(

There are literally only two scenarios left on the table for the bullish idea: diagonal or flat. That's it. Also, I don't think we will be supported at 47-51K like many see. I'd rather see 30K at that point.

If it drops more, there is not 47 or 51. Its going to 30 or 20k. That's what you gues understand, we lose the last low, 20k is on the way.Even if it pumps from 47 or 51 it doesnt matter. 20K would still be the price to go.

@@aboveall130 This is where I'd agree with the bears. I don't think 47-50K will be supported. Just doesn't fit into the distribution pattern of bitcoin having such an elongated wave 4. I will remain bullish until we stay above the previous low, but after that, it's toast imo.

51K in September, 47K in November

that 2 would be extremely short compared to w1

It's the only best structure that can help divide the current correction we have. A double 1-2 is possible since you can technically use the flat for the wave B of the first 1-2, but it's essentially the same thing. I just like to see things with clear separation.

@@XForceGlobal fair enough we all do things slightly differently, but the subdivision just doesnt fit for the exp diag imo

@@stubaleisson I agree and disagree :P Because for a double 1-2, it fits pretty nicely, but on the macro and I would agree, but it's hard to justify on the micro timeframes as we didn't exhaust the bullish ideas just yet (which is the point of the video). As for the diag pattern itself, it's moved correctively for all three subwaves of the diagonal, so it's enough for me to say that we do have the possibility to continue the diagonal. Of course, we have the flat idea to also lean back onto if it doesn't!

@@XForceGlobal we are talking about two different diags here lol.. meant the htf bearish exp diag doesnt look nice in terms of subdivision. the micro bullish exp diag could still work yes

Let's go!!!!! <3<3