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ITS A DISGUSTING PONZI. CAN'T WAIT FOR THE RECKONING TO COME. AND IT WILL COME ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. EITHER A CRASH OR INFLATION TO THE MOON.

Great update, the reality check on China's "stimulus" was particularly helpful.

Thanks for putting this out 👍🏻

Main thing that the Fed has communicated to me as just a guy trying to understand the initial conditions of 'now'? We have a weak, compliant Fed, that can be bullied into what the Financial News Media and politicians think they should do. Which just our thoughts? Is about the worst outcome I can think of ... And totally agreed. I traded through 06-09 ... This is *_NOTHING_* like 2008 / GFC. NOTHING

About a third of the way through ... and I agree on almost all counts. From my days / decades of hanging around traders ... I would perhaps use a bit more 'colorful ... less professional speech'. LOL. 🙂 But agree on almost all counts thusfar, as we have been saying as well My summation up to September of this year was ... The Fed ... and the Rates markets ... even STIRs ... have lost their damn mind. There has been _SOME_ Correction to that, and we are watching the 1st Red in STIRs more than anything else ... but honestly ... with wages increasing 5.5% last I looked? Honestly the concern now is that Inflation has already gone structural and easing at this point is almost asking for a tail risk event ( which given geo-politics, which is not my forte ... even I would have to say that probability is elevated ) leading to a 1977 to 1981 all over again ...

Thank you Bob. An excellent presentation as usual, one that I look forward to every month. Regards J

Thanks for good content, please record in 1080 or up hd.. Charts content not clear

Taking swings at Scranton

Where is the whole video?

Show the whole video

Adding rocket fuel to a Ponzi scheme driven by government spending and manipulation.

"Strong economy" 😂

Why don't you tell that to Eric Basmajian :)

Where's the rest of these cool videos. It's like we started in the middle and ended in the middle

I told you three months ago monetary loosening will cause escalation of global conflict which is what happened. Three months ago Bob had said war causes inflation. He is right about that, but he misses (or glosses over, or chooses not to comment on) the connection that it is overly loose U.S. monetary policy, enacted to paper over what would have otherwise been a depression in the 2000s, that is resulting in global conflict now. The Fed apparently doesn't get the connection either. They want to keep loosening. There will be more war. That is also why the price of gold is rising. It is collateral against private debt transactions used to move sanctioned commodities and other goods between non-Western allies. Nobody listens.

Naive take Bob. When people tell you who they are you ahould listen: "There's even an argument that the election itself falls within the Fed's purview," he writes. "After all, Trump's reelection arguably presents a threat to the US and global economy, to the Fed's independence and its ability to achieve its employment and inflation objectives." - Bill Dudley

Borrowing and spending money is not economic growth.

Very good analysis. Thanks

but she(russian center bank) was wrong, Chinese never take Russia's RMB aways, instead, US took its USD away :)

There's a maturity wall of around US$ 1 trillion set the expire by the end of this year. Most write-offs have been absorbed by regional banks. Many of them flying below the radar. NYCB's "bailout" is just one example. CMBS loan delinquency for offices hit 8.8% this summer. The other leg of these charge-offs remain hidden due to off-market distressed transactions. Here's the fundamental question - if rates move down (which they currently are), will reduction in cost of capital offset the overall slow down in the economy? Beyond some of the larger CRE portfolios being able to refinance and kick the can down the road, I wouldn't bet on it.

Great Job Bob

gg if investors think US T-bills are a risk and then starts dumping them and has a snowball effect say what if China reforms their government to a democratic state, and investors flock to the yuan? yea...

Just say it. Bitcoin is nonsense.

Thanks Bob!

What about insurmountable government debt and unfunded liabilities? Money printing to pay these off will be hyper inflationary

How can they cut 50bps with core still >3% when at the very beginning Jpow said core is what he is focused on? There’s a huge disconnect here

Thank you Bob. Great clear & candid explanations 🙏

Chinese CAN own Bitcoin

I can't connect the energy demands needed to run AI with the cost savings.

Can we say that the pricing in of a significant cutting cycle in the face of above target inflation and strong labour market, reflects the prioritisation of controlling interest expense and supporting tax revenues sensitive to asset prices? This feels like the beginnings of a fiscal dominance era, where public debt is necessarily monetised. In the US case, normalisation of Treasury issuance would also offset Fed loosening Nothing stops this train...

I learned of this learning and studying independently and of course Ray Dalio Books and learning studying him ❤

According to truflation, no. Cyclically, it is not a major concern. Structurally it is lurking in the background ready to leap. That said, with the fed's recent dovish moves, if this stalling in the economy turns out to be a simple delay in economic decision making until after the election and yet we get another further dovish move from the fed in the post election meeting, we may reignite the cyclical threat.

Thanks Bob! Other than the gold longer history, don't you think that btc has the same properties but, in addition, the plus to be transferred quicker and in a cheaper way than gold?

Great stuff Bob! People are definitely jumping the gun on recession. This was the case after SVB and at the start of 2024 when the market had 7 rate cuts priced for 2024. The labor market is the key. It was way too strong even in 2022 when everyone was calling for an economic crash. Today it has weakened significantly but layoffs are still at the lows. Until layoffs start to rise, recession ain't happening...

Canada is the outlier, so an interesting economy to study. Why do other developed economies have similar dynamics in the bond market but no meaningful weakening in the labour market (so far)?

Thanks Bob - very interesting and clear/logical delivery.

Do you expect shelter inflation to increase? Why?

Thanks bob, enjoyed the new format. Thanks for your time.

very good condensation of the current economic landscape

This guy thinks the economy shut down during WW2? What?

Great video. Audio is completely fine.

Hey there love your podcast, but I did notice your audio is low. You guys may want to upgrade the speakers a bit. Thanks!

what portfolio types might perform best in an inflationary growth (or weak growth) period.?

The problem with TIPs is indeed that they are anchored to CPI, which is a VERY questionable metric of real inflation.

Would wealth taxes on assets in tandem with a reduction of general income tax rates (so overall delta neutral in terms of gov tax take) help towards making income driven expansion the norm versus credit expansion (which has been the norm for the last 20-30 yrs)?

Based Bob. excellent content

Thanks for the analysis bob?

What’s even the point of making 8 years into the future projections, no one knows what economy and innovations we will get by that time - it’s just an exercise in futility… and it’s not true that layoffs require dissaving to make up for the shortfall in spending as you’re assuming an imaginary world where workforce is contracting rather that expanding

Pleasure to listen to you Bob. So much knowledge and details yet you’re able to explain it short and clear. Thank you

Thanks Bob!