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@@davistolpulitz lol go birds

Appreciate it!

@@jamess8477 “Vegas” is simply a marketplace and it doesn’t know anything, it’s a reflection of the collective opinions of sharp bettors. That said, this opened at Circa at -10 and is now at -8 so there’s at least a little belief in IL

@@anthonywhittington4468 yep 6-4 in NFL and 21-18 in CFB

Memphis?

@@michaelaparicio523 we use a more robust model with additional variables, this was a relatively simple example on how to create a model and is not the same model we use for NFL.

No arguments here about Cleveland D being better than Carolina's but I just can't buy the hype yet. We'll see tomorrow. Market makers still have this at Cowboys -6

Good catch we overlooked that tid bit!

@@TroyBickham no it does! We account for career qb effect and his is pretty insane. I didn’t wanna believe it either. What’s crazier is the market has moved this from -6 down to -5 for the chiefs so sharps are backing Cincy at that number 🤷

@@michaelsukeforth764 we don’t have an official play but we’re releasing that video in the morning as we have a couple of leans. I’ll tell you now the over 56.5 was VERY appealing

@@morganlindsey6713 generally as value (thru CLV) on one side increases the other side will decrease. We’ve never done this and seems like it could ultimately eat into your ROI

Thanks for the question and I would definitely avoid doing that with spreads because of the vig. Let's say you have Team A, -3 for -110 and Team B, +5 for -110 each for $110. If Team A wins by 7, you've taken a winning bet and lost money overall because you now went 1 for 2 (you risked $220 but only walked away with $210). Let's say Team A wins by 4. Sure, you've now won both bets which is great, but you got severely underpaid because you basically made an "exact margin" bet and if you look at the odds for those you would have gotten paid waaay more if you just did that instead. If you're getting CLV that's a great sign that you have a solid bet. It doesn't mean your bet is going to win of course, but over time you would expect to win more than you lose and you would profit alot more with just sticking to one side. Even if you win the middle, you have to ask yourself is it worth being paid -110 for a bet that should be +600 (making up a number but you get my point). Hope that helps

@@BTBanalytics gotcha makes sense thanks man

@@u.s.aarchangelforgod3679 how are they going to stop the Lions offense?

@@BTBanalytics Easy by our Defense and by scoring.

We’ll be updating our graphics every week and pointing these teams out. If you want to see who they are just watch our weekly show on Thursdays!

@@MrCoreyTexas you can profit off uncertainty. Nothing is a guarantee of course but the opportunities are there, just need to know where to look

@@neilwilliams3639 congrats on the cash!

We’ll work on that!

@@MrCoreyTexas NFL is definitely the hardest to beat at close. At open, it’s still a different story but generally agree that CFB has more opportunity due to volume, among other things

Thanks for the question. Are you talking about columns M and N at the 19:58 mark? If so, those the values we produce using our model. That's part of our paid subscription to get access to those numbers. If you're interested we have discount codes and a sign up link in the video description. Let me know if that answers your question or if I missed it.

@@BTBanalytics I was referring to column B in the power rating 1 tab. Are those numbers publicly available?

no but we will do our best to update them for you each week, if not we can just remove these columns for the other PR

the man covers

Please explain how we “failed again” when we explicitly said this is a negative EV bet, we’re not betting it, and we had a positive week

@@robertphinney1944 we appreciate that! Thanks

@@mikescatena5732 so what “numbers” are used to set the line for week 1 then?

unfortunately not in this game

@@BTBanalytics big 12 ? Game ?

I think the main issue I see for WVU is Greene throwing the ball. I think is psu stacks the box Greene is gonna have to have a good day passing to take advantage. I’m higher on WVU than most but I don’t think they have a chance

@@jishnujishnu1467 I think that WVU is going to fare real well vs other teams and have big time receiving games . WVU just played so flat and nervous vs psu . and psu is the best defense we will see . Next week vs Albany we will get the wrinkles ready for Pitt and we will get ready for Kansas . WVU is going to be 3-1 going into ok state . Our big chance to win the conference relies there . Lose at Oklahoma state and we are out of the cat bird seat with ucf k state and isu at home who I think we can beat with solid defense and a good balanced offense and also at Arizona who I think we are asking for a lot where we will have to shoot it out with them on the road . We have to protect home field advantage and win one of those road games . In the end I’m asking for too much . I think 9-3 is a ceiling and 8-4 is a better expectation . Regardless back to back 9 win seasons at WVU is something to write home about because it hasn’t been sone since 09/10 and we played in a real weak big east . This big 12 is going to have 5 possibly 6 teams with 8 wins or more and probably 5 teams with 10 wins tbh

@@Mattdixxx I’m high on Penn state so this loss doesn’t really do anything for my perception of WVU. Like you said it’s the best team they’ll play all season and the worst they’ll probably look I don’t expect the huge unforced turnovers they had to be an issue moving forward. That’s still a veteran team with a proven rushing attack. My expectations for WVU remain unchanged I see them very much in the mix for the big12, but it would really sting for this loss to come back and haunt them in some tie breaker situations. Probably the reason we won’t see many more of these home and home ooc regular season matchups

@@jishnujishnu1467 I have broke it down . We won’t see a better defense . We may see a better running back but not a running game , we will see a few better qbs but I think Allar has a chance to be an all big 10 and all American in the future , with the all big ten possibly this year . I was trying to think who the big 10 had back at qb and nothing rings a bell? Also Penn state has probably the best offensive line for talent . Maybe not schematic wise ? Ok state always has big RBs made for paving running room . I believe our o line is the best in the big 12 so we play someone’s o line every day in practice anyway . Franklin coaching staff is by far in the top half we will see . Personally I think oddly enough the big 12!$/: some really good coaches . Other than Kirk ferentz idk who has better coaches than Utah and ok state . Then that guy from North Dakota state that won all those national titles at k state. I think he may get snatched outta k state to the nfl or perhaps a sec or higher big 10 school . Iowa state head coach could go to the nfl too

@@Mattdixxx I think the ok state game is where the real answers will come from. Going to be a tough win to squeeze out but even a loss there and your next hardest game is at Arizona. Avoid Utah entirely. Everything’s in front of you and everyone’s high on you for a reason. I wholeheartedly expect an improvement this season I want to see 10 wins out of WVU in the final poll

NINE 4 stars vs penn sts 53 with 5 being actually 5 stars!

yeah it linked in the document, nflelo.com

@@elplaga5744 nah go mustangs!

@@BTBanalyticsyes sir go smu my sister goes there

@@Slaughta-u8r we don’t model player props for college (plus can’t bet on them where we’re at in AZ)

it's a workaround if you don't use an oddscreen. can get in the lab for a college version. appreciate the support!

only two days away!

48 hours away

@@jaypruitt8639 wouldn’t take it at current market but we liked it at +13 for sure

hope this helps!

happy to help! hope this lead you to making good bets and wins some $$$