Видео

Yes, based on management's updated forecast, the company will have a defeicit next quarter.

I saw the news, highly disappointing. 😮‍💨 Only positive is that it was announced pre market. The company still appears undervalued but with lower guidance and no expected growth, this one may continue lower into the mid single digits. 😬

Didn't guidance rev for 2024 is 65 mil now? even at 10.90 isn't cheap...and keep in mind 80% revenue of this company come form one company...that is risky@@soidontknow

@@soidontknow What was the news? Is it not a good buy anymore?

Yes, guidance was revised lower. Looking forward I estimate a fair value low of 12, but if the company isn't growing, then the multple I'm using will decrease to maybe 15-25, rather than current 35-79. Definitely risky considering the customer concentration. Hopefully this is a cycle in the business that will pass.

Thanks, I'm happy to hear it. 😃 Unfortunately, I'm not planning on doing this style of video going forward. Right now, I'm following supermicro if you're interested in that company.

@@soidontknow I'll check out your videos.

Thanks! 😃

Thank you for the compliment. 😃

Good call. 👍

Damn bro keep seeing you at these smci videos lol

@@AlexPooo because I regret pulling out my funds lol. I should've held on before withdrawing. Damn.

@@unboxthisparcel ohhh you meant like you just sold ? That’s fine bro. At least you made money. I was afraid you were short because on Monday the bears are not going to have a fun time lol. It’s okay I believe after the rip it will fade and present another opportunity for entry anyways

The stock was up. I didn't imagine it'd go this high. I was estimating a peak of 1050 and it did 1150. Wow! 😃 The price stayed within my uptrend range, but just barely. This stock price moves fast. 🐎

Thanks, 👍. I rewatched it and yeah, it's surprisingly accurate even when forecasting ahead 6ish months.

Hold for at least a decade

Hi, to address the key points of your comment. 1) Regarding my comparables, initially I did use other companies within the sector such as Oracle, Accucenture, and Cisco, see my previous valuation video of SMCI. Then when the company far exceeded that valuation scale, I felt it appropriate to reassess its fair value range. Upon review of other company’s I follow, I found AMZN and TSLA as the best fair market comparisons due to their margin percentages being similar, presented in the video. 2) AMZN and TSLA trading at a lower PE than the range presented. This is due to both company’s reporting solid earnings recently driving up the denominator and the stock price not following suit as quickly for various reasons. Additionally, the range used is based on my judgement of what each company generally trades in terms of its earnings multiple over the past five years. Had the timing been different TSLA was trading at a PE of 80 last quarter and AMZN was trading at over 100 two quarters ago. Note that upon further inspection of AMZN’s PE range, I’m more inclined to use the range of 60 to 95, going forward, effectively lowering the bottom but maintaining its top. 3) Finally, the company is being valued much higher than others in its space for good reason, they are able to provide better solutions to IT and AI concerns of today and tomorrow, compared to its competitors. It’s growth in revenue is proof of this concept. Because of its smaller size in terms of its shares outstanding, is the reason why I can see this company going above the stated fair value range for PE. To close, your concern of sales volume, consider that the three industry competitors I listed each made about $50B in sales for its TTM. If SCMI takes 3-5% revenue share from those three competitors, it will effectively double its revenue again. It’s a hypothetical scenario but looks achievable. I hope this helps.

@@soidontknow what's TTM?

@@publiccake trailing twelve months

Hi, Regarding your concerns over the PE ratio ranges used for AMZN and TSLA. YOU are looking at a moment in time, right now. Whereas I’M looking at the companies past five years worth of results and seeing where the companies generally trades. Had the timing been different TSLA was trading at a PE of 80 last quarter and AMZN was trading at over 100 two quarters ago. These two companies went down in PE due to solid earnings recently and the stock price not following suit as quickly for various reasons. Note that upon further inspection of AMZN’s PE range, I’m more inclined to use the range of 60 to 95, going forward, effectively lowering the bottom but maintaining its top. I hope this helps.

I find this way of tracking to be helpful at times. I like ASML too! I'm planning on making a valuation video on the company soon and look forward to seeing the results. Keep an eye out for it. Hopefully, you watch it and let me know your thoughts.

Much appreciated! There's more to come.

It's likely a difference in stock price due to timing, or else it's a difference in ttm eps. Eps can be confirmed using the company's financials and should all match. If no match, that's the answer. If it does match, multiply the ttm eps by the pe figure listed on each site to calculate the stock price each site used.

Looking at it technically, I changed its status to okay primarily because of its current downtrend and the likelihood it will continue lower in the near term.

Thanks and great suggestion! I'll work towards getting a video out on this topic soon.

I posted a follow up to this video answering 'why the stock is dropping', included in the title. It might help.

My personal not financial advice: sellwhen people are constructing narratives to fit an exuberant recent past stock trend, not when people are constructing narratives for why a stock downtrend could continue

I posted two new videos to help. One updating the valuation and the second answering why it's price is dropping.

It is good buy for the current price, below 19 bucks?

Personally I'm not interested in the company because of an article i read a while back. An analyst mentioned the company dying not from a big blow but of a thousands little cuts. The words stuck with me ever since. The analyst was referring to all the new companies offering the same type of service resulting in paypal not being as special or unique as it once was. Also, leading to decreasing or at best stagnant growth over time.

Thanks, I'm glad you like it. 🙂

Buy and hold and keep buying dips!!

Thank you! You'll be happy to see both companies are listed as a top pick for me this week.

Thank you, I find it helpful and it's surprising how closely certain technical patterns stay intact along with support and resistance points. Adding news to it definitely adds confidence to my decision-making.

Hi, this is a great catch! XLU rarely breaks its uptrend of nearly 15 years. If this is the type of investment you want, it appears to be a great time to pick it up relative to today. Something to consider is looking into the index's top holdings to see what opportunities are there too, such as NEE, SO, DUK, etc.

@soidontknow Thanks! Didn't think it would happen the next day, lol. I have a small amount. Want to buy more, but it's sensitive to interest rates, and they are relentless at the moment. Thanks for the reply!