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Always welcome mate. That is possible. I could not assess what impact that could have before I had some more concrete information to work with.

Always welcome mate!

Sure, Ukrainians are tired of the war, and that is in all likelihood true for Russia if they could answer freely. I am not sure we can say what factor that is for this winter, or even next year. Remember when we talked about the low morale among Russian soldiers, and what impact that would have? The difference is between do not want to fight, and will not fight. Ukraine is struggling more with equipment, and also with soldiers. Russia is now struggling with finding soldiers, and next year they will struggle with equipment. 90 % of Ukrainians in a survey (June/July 2024) disagree with the statement that Russia should be allowed to control territory they have occupied since 2022. When asked "Ukraine concede some of its territories to save lives and end the war" 34% said yes. Meaning 66 % would disagree. 58 % worried a lot about war weariness in others. So war weariness is there, but an absolute majority would not want to give up territory, and 66 % would disagree to concede some territory to save lives. I wonder what information you have seen that clearly shows it will become a factor this winter? I have had limited time to follow everything, so if I have missed something would like to check it out. In an independent survey, 49 % of Russia wants to simply pull out of Ukraine. 15% wanted more territory taken in Ukraine, meaning 85 % did not. And while Russia is a dictatorship, Putin cannot alienate people, as the partial mobilization showed.

What about if Ukraine just surrenders?

@@jmsww2 ahh i see what your saying. And it was from my own personal assessment based on the information I’ve been seeing. But i am glad that you showed more facts so I can see your perspective

@richardmoloney689 What if Putin is overthrown, or Russia simply pulls out?

@thebean3463 I agree that there is war weariness, and I have seen plenty of such interviews. But if I try to quantify it, I do not see either side simply stopping this year, or next year. I could be wrong, open data always has a fair amount of uncertainty.

Always welcome mate! Keep the money for what is needed! There are plenty of channels covering the situation on a daily basis.

They do tend to be somewhat exaggerated, but lets see what happens.

Always welcome mate! You also have a good weekend, and may it be relaxing, no rather, may it be interesting!

Slava Ukraini!

Always welcome mate!

I have actually also seen some reporting from that area, but also too limited to draw any good conclusions. They do not have much time to do anything, but lets see if the situation will develop there.

I did a reduced video. Originally it should have been regarding all strikes by Ukraine during September, and thanks mate!

Thanks mate!

Thanks mate!

The forecast has some partly sunny days, and some showers. Need more consistently bad weather, and much more rain to really make a difference. Might be the start of the bad weather season. Feels a bit early, but it is possible.

Always welcome mate!

Thanks mate! You too, have a relaxing good week!

Always welcome mate. There will be coverage, just likely not regarding the daily situation. I will reevaluate after 2 weeks, so let's see what has happened by then.

Slava Ukraini!

Slava Ukraini!

Always welcome mate!

Not sure I would agree that we are not seeing the culmination. Russian gains have gone down, if seen over the whole front, and now we are seeing indications they can not sustain the number of attacks. So attacks are down, and also pressure. I think we have seen the culmination, at least of attacks well past 180 attacks per day. This does not mean that Russia will not try to take as much terrain as possible, but that will become harder unless the situation changes. I think we can expect that Russia will push for peace negotiations no later than the beginning of next year. No matter who wins the US elections. Trump can not impose a ceasefire, he can withdraw US aid, but that will have a delayed effect. Ukraine would in all likelihood try to improve the situation in 2025, which will be much harder without US aid, maybe impossible. But as Russia is running down their forces, possibly something could be done. European aid would likely continue, but then much more likely to see a freezing of the conflict. Trump could try and lift all, or some, US sanctions and pressure Ukraine, and if successful, that would likely be the end of US involvement in NATO. Hard to see European and US relationships coming back from that. Europe would have to pivot away from the US, which militarily they can do, but would take a decade+ or so in purely military terms. Ukraine would fall between the chairs, and China would likely take advantage, so Taiwan would be in a bad position. 2025 will be a watershed moment, not only for Ukraine but also for what we can expect globally.

Always welcome mate!

Thanks!

Always welcome mate!

Always welcome mate!

Thanks mate!

Always welcome mate!