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The charts miss the fact that you can’t analyse Australia as one index. Syd/mel perform best in first half of the cycle 2012-2019 and smaller capitals perform well in second half 2021-current. Track those years back each 18.6 years and you’ll find the same results

Great insight ❤

If you could only borrow now $300k-350k would you buy a single storey unit to get yourself into the market, or would you wait a couple of years and save until you could purchase a home for $500k+ keeping in mind how hot most of the market is and how fast it is moving?

I definitely love this Q&A episode! Thanks Damien and Jeremy for answering the questions. You guys are legend! 🤘🏽

Thanks guys for addressing my question! Great to know I shouldn't have bought in a suburb which has a house and land package. Perth market has driven up the prices so should I hold it and move on to the next one or think of selling it off in future. Suburb: Byford

Another Q&A request: what are your thoughts on investing in Victoria given their continuing downturn? Should it still be as simple as looking for suburbs where demand exceeds supply at the moment + comparing ROI if investing in another state (e.g. due to higher land tax in Vic)? Appreciate your content as always.

Btw i send you a message on instagram

Plz make more podcasts like this

Thanks for more insightful data to help your audience make educated decisions.

capital needs to move to where it is needed and one thing for sure, capital is not needed in australia. put your money in property is cheap eg thailand, Vietnam etc Property in australia is extremely expensive eg 13x average wage when it was 4x that.

You are blind.

Australian Property is very overvalued according to many different metrics. The price going up doesn't mean its not overvalued. The Japanese stock market was going up for years in the 1980s, despite also already being overvalued for years.

Great episodes guys. Really enjoying your relaxed, yet straight to the point style. Keep it up. Thanks

Jackson David Miller Deborah White Frank

When would your new site be ready? Thanks.

Another solid convo! Thanks for sharing, Damien and Jeremy. Loving the insights!

The 18-year land cycle can be used as a framework to forecast the Midcycle Slowdowns (1982, 2001, 2020), and the larger Land Driven Downturns (1933, 1955, 1972, 1990, 2008), the next is due post 2026. During the Midcycle Slowdowns the stock markets take a 40-50% correction and property 5-10% correction. During the Land Driven Downturns, the stock markets take a 50-60% correction, residential property 20-30% correction and commercial property up to 70% correction. In the first half of the cycle Sydney and Melbourne outperform, then in the second half of the cycle Brisbane, Perth & Adelaide then outperform. Studying the cycle will allow you to have clarity of where the markets, inflation, and interest rates are heading, allow you to be prepared, and not over leveraged when the markets are due to turn!

Great summary Damien and Jeremy. The conclusion hits the nail on the head. There is no "one" market, and it's pointless trying to use an 18 year cycle myth to drive your investment strategy.

Interesting video, in my humble opinion this is a very simplistic approach to assess the 18-year cycle and not very accurate. I'm by no expert regarding the cycle but have done extensive research over the last 5 years as I was very skeptical myself. Firstly, the "18-year cycle" averages out to be 18.6. the largest cycle is 21 years which was affected by ww2 and nothing less than 17 years. History shows land prices have peaked consistently in America for the last 200 years and another 100 or so years prior in Europe. Secondly, there are different stages of the cycle that were not touched on in the video. I completely agree Australia does not follow the cycle to a tee but the cycle provides a framework/timeline on when things should happen based on history and certain movements in the economy/stock market. This is clearly evident by a couple of books written by Akhil Patel (Secret Wealth advantage) and Phil J Anderson (Secret Life of Realestate and Banking) one of the key points the books show is the science behind the cycle and that typically Australia lags the US to about 6-12 months within the cycle. The authors of these books have always maintained the stance that you cannot pinpoint a certain area/suburb to invest in and for that you as an investor must do the work and due diligence. To understand why most economists/banks are mostly wrong in forecasting home prices you must read the work from Fred Harrison, Mason Gafney (corruption of economics), progress and poverty by Henry George and David Ricardos law of Economic Rent.

The point is choose the market based on the property cycle. Pls do the same analysis with all capaital city data and you will see the value. The good thing about that , depending where the cycle is, you can decide where to invest.

This is a wrong chart to analyse, use the median house price to do the same analysis. Not growth rate

Love the episodes! Any chance of weekly episodes? Cheers Mark.

Probably the best easy to understand cashflow and profit analysis content I have seen. So key variables that determine profitability is really growth and consistent rent income. Then theres also the expenses and tax credit. But the a strong growth can cancel all the negatives.

Thanks, are you able to share this calculator?

Bok Damire 😁😁 pozdrav iz Hrvatske.

Its should be last on index these dsys. Job losses, worst living standards and chaos of immigration... thanks to albo

Good day. Just wanting to thank the hosts Jeremy and Damien, yet again, another great episode. I am a migrant who came to Australia when I was 18 with a luggage and laptop backpack as a student in 2011. After 14 years, I still believe that Australia is still a very liveable country compared to the other countries and I could see why "we" are the number 1 preference for a lot of migrants. Just want to repeat a few good points you guys have made. 1. Liveable cities - technically you are right, our costs of living are still cheaper than New York, London, Paris, etc. And yet we have the first class/leading infrastructure including public transports, airports and more importantly peacefulness with the beautiful geographical landscapes and people. 2. First property - yes, indeed it will be tough and I still remember clearly when I bought my first home at the end of 2021. But under precise guidance, data analysis and actually speak to people who have done it before, you can actually do it. Perhaps it will be good to stop having the victim mindset, put the head down, plan your finance, be discipline and trust the process. 3. Over-leverage/try to do the catchup - social media, it can be good, but it can also be bad. I find your podcast/youtube videos are actually really informative, probably underrated. Compared to the other videos/podcasts that I have came across, your podcast is one of the most reliable, trustworthy and realistic. You guys did not talk about the 'FIRE' approach where it gets people having the 'FOMO' moment. You guys did not talk about just how good things can be if you just put all your money into the property market and own 10 properties in 3 years and having a ?net worth of ?10 millions (blah blah blah) . Indeed, you guys talked about the actual things with the support of data and personal experiences. You guys also reminded people about the 'dud' properties, personal negative encounters, and importantly being open to the results received. And all these info at no costs, bonkers! 4. Balance and greed - this is a very important lesson for myself too. I realised sometimes when you are young, you are willing to take on more risks and this can capsize the boat very easily. There is a chinese saying - the water can float the boat, but it can also sink the boat. Need to constantly remind ourselves as investors i.e. cashflow, capital growth, tax benefits. 5. Video editing - keep the current video editing, you guys do not need the fancy editing where people trying to catch audience by showing the eye-catching titles or a 5-sec sneak peek to catch attention. These video/podcast formats are really good, just like buying a property, you have to be willing to listen and be patient for the good stuff. Again, my sincere thank you for doing these informative videos for us. Thank you - Jeremy, Damien and the team.

Love your work gents. Keep it up.

hahaha you had me thinking twice at the start!!

Thank you very much, Jeremy for taking the time & effort to do this amazing analysis!! Truly a Data Guru!!! Appreciate it!! Love more of such content, please

What's your opinion of mixed use zoned properties? Is this a safe gateway into commerical?

Great episode fellas! If this has been answered in a later episode feel free to ignore. But how does one gather this data for an example like you provided or previous examples. Is it as time consuming as actually search an address every day or are there exports you can run or subscriptions to get access to rows of data for analysis?

Hi Jeremy, I read a comment from you that it is better to buy in a hot market, rather than trying to buy undervalue elsewhere in the cooler suburbs. The biggest question I have is how do we know how much growth the hot markets still have left? For ex, Townsville and Perth have already grown so much so I'm unable to decide whether to buy there, or look elsewhere.

Recently found this channel and have been going through each episode. Really top notch episode here and love really appreciate the in depth discussion and level of analysis that went in. Definitely feel I’ve learnt a lot of valuable insight through this discussion.

Hi Luke & Jeremy, I love your content and I always look forward to you releasing each new video and gaining unbiased insights into property market data & analytics. I have another question that might hopefully make the topic of a future video. Recent data from Core Logic (as reported below by Alan Kohler) shows Melbourne's median house price to be the sixth lowest of all capital cities; even lower than Perth & Adelaide. I assume that the historic average would place Melbourne's median house price at maybe the second or third most expensive city in the country. I've heard Jeremy use the apples & oranges price-growth analysis to explain why two price-divergent property markets eventually revert back to their historic average (ie: the cheaper property market eventually becomes much more affordable and buyers eventually leave the more expensive property market and flock to the cheaper market due to greater affordability). Would you be able to do a video on the historic median house price value of all Australian capital cities over the past 30 (or perhaps even 40) years and compare each city's median house price with the capital city index (average value)? Would be really great to see each capital city's median house price as a percentage value of the capital-city index that year, every year, and to also have the historic average percentage value of each capital city compared to the capital-city index averaged over 30 (or even 40) years. Is there a likelihood that Melbourne's median house price will eventually "rebound" back to its historic average and what do you think might be the trigger for that (eg: interest rates decreasing next year or say a change in government in 2026's state election in Victoria)? Cheers.

Hey guys, Love the podcast! I’ve noticed that while many people cover the key metrics for capital growth, there's rarely any discussion about the specific target values for these metrics or where the data actually comes from, like DSR, SQM, Onthehouse, etc. It would be great to hear an episode focused on the factors that drive suburb growth with exact metric ranges that they look for relative to their strategy such as: - Vacancy rate % - Days on market - Average vendor discounting % - 12-month online search interest ratio - Gross yield % - Demand to supply ratio - 36-month median value growth rate % - 12-month rental growth rate % - Renter proportion % - Stock on market % - Auction clearance rate % Is there a reason why this isn't usually discussed in detail? Thanks!

Can you please do a case study on how one can retire in 10 to 15 years by accumulating properties taking into account strict lending policies and with average household incomes?

What does Jeremy think of the 18 year property cycle?

Thank you for feedback on my question!! ❤❤ I have to say your show is like sitting in a university course on property investing using data without the HECS debt!! Thanks again gents for the fantastic content!!

Liams Question was fantastic, and the response was spot on too. I had the same dilemma at the same age and I was told just get in if its within your capacity as things change both in the market and in personal circumstances. For me this advice really worked, but it really depends on your circumstances.

Awesome guys I found it very interesting and helpful

No Grounds evictions are recorded on Forms with State Govt Dept of Commerce/Fair Trade office prior to releasing the Tenant Bond. States know what's happening. But they will hold that data. Otherwise it's discussed in the Productivity Report Vulnerable Private Renters (2019). But observe ATO, APRA and ASIC have their sticks out.

The law protects tenants far more than the owners. Would be good to see a bit of fairness.

Definitely those aliens need to be watched carefully. I had one steal my foldout 😂

Thanks for the video, I have a question pertaining to Regional vs Capital City growth. I read a report by CoreLogic that looked at capital growth data over 30 years 1992 - 2022. They stated that the CG rate of houses for combined capitals was 453.1% and the CG rate of houses for combined regionals was 313.9%. This seems to contradict the notion that Regionals perform the same as Capital Cities and has left me confused as to what's really going on? A quote from the CoreLogic article - "The higher growth rate across the capital cities probably reflects a combination of higher demand and greater scarcity of supply compared with regional markets, along with more diversified economic conditions within the capital cities." Any help or guidance is greatly appreciated to clarify this situation or if I'm misinterpreting something?

This law change is ridiculous. I should be allowed to manage my property as I see fit, without government over reach. I shouldn't have to justify to a tenant nor the government why I want to end a tenancy.

Thanks for the video. I read a report by CoreLogic that looked at capital growth data over 30 years 1992 - 2022. They stated that the CG rate of houses for combined capitals was 453.1% and the CG rate of houses for combined regionals was 313.9%. This seems to contradict the idea that regionals perform the same as capitals and has left me confused as to the truth? Any help or guidance is appreciated...

Great podcast, been following for a while! Quick question, it's always mentioned to check active listings for supply but what I'm seeing recently is most of them are generated by builders with home and land packages. Where do I find real data? And does DSR+ take all this into account?

I know exactly who you are talking about. Agree he puts out a lot of good content which I am grateful for, but his views on property investing are quite archaic and no amount of data is able to change his mind.

How would the upcoming Brisbane 2032 Olympics affect the Brisbane/Queensland property market?