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Clark Jose Perez Brenda Miller Patricia

This is a great video and explains why many super investors are in the met coal trade. The Met coal players have continued to float down making them interesting here.

As of today 6th September 2024 the stocks are stumbling, it seems that mister market is very skyzophrene. However the long term macro hasn’t changed. Needs for coking coal for the world on yearly basis until 2050 roughly 1BT/year. Market is not yet at full speed but steel is steel and it is a vital element of our civilization. Due to ESG concerns it would be almost impossible to get new permits for new mines, Australia is unreliable and royalties have been added on top of all of that. The more we move into the years the less met coal we have so scarcity applies. On the micro for Alpha Met (and this applies for all robust met coal companies) FCF at peak was 1B$ as we are in a downturn period with China in uncertainty mode for now FCF should be around 300/400 millions $ per year for the next 4 to 5 years. We can expect if mister is very shortsighted to potentially get to 50$ a share by 2028 ish. Alpha might see a massive opportunity to buy a massive amount of shares in that period. Then China will recover and will be in battle with India to get the best coking coal with the best logistics, quality etc… then mister market wakes up and see what the heck we have a company with a FCF yield of about 40% what is going here I want to put that down to the 10 years treasury bond value yield of about 5% and the recovery starts….we end up for those who are very patient and long term investor with a 30% to 50% annual compound on 8 to 10 years….what about that?

30:00 I think they actually inject the chicken with butter and sauce It's not juicy by accident. They put the butter straight into the meat. I don't think they're using hormones or anything. It's just a regular chicken but it's how they cook it.

Lopez Karen Gonzalez Steven Perez Betty

This dude clearly doesnt know what he’s talking about, making it up along the way.

Hauck Cove

Love it!

jesus, even playing this back at 0.75x is hard going .. this guy doesnt come up for air

Who's Mike?

Let's go RCAT!

Should of been talking about it 9 months ago

Dislike given for trimmed beard. Can't describe my disappointment. Couldn't even make it through the podcast.

Great stuff here

Robinson Dorothy Smith Michael White Ruth

Any chance to get these chaps back on for an update?

A quality money manager who goes the extra yard in his due diligence for his and his investors capital. Kudos

Hey mate, just to balance out the overwhelmingly positive - I feel these ramblings have been repeating the formula: "Conventional wisdom is x, but what if it's not" Have noticed it the past few videos and right when you started a topic I sort of knew where you were going to end based on the above formula. I propose some talks on pattern recognition. You turn over a ton of rocks and I feel that you are uniquely qualified to comment on such patterns, base rates, etc. I would find that pretty interesting.

Had a Canadian small cap go to 0. over a couple of years. Every quarter the business was about to turn according to management. painful lesson.

Who’s here after 24q2 ER?

I guess your wife didn't google 'what to do if finance bf insists dating app on his phone is only for research purposes'

very thoughtful discussion w/ Jacob

Great shirt Andrew!

Is the company not way overvalued from a DCF perspective?

I just bought a Samsonite hard case large luggage a month ago. It's replacing my last Samsonite soft case from four years ago. The wheels starting giving issues. Prob could have fixed ti but wanted a hard case. I also got a Samsonite carry on suitcase last year. Thats three Samsonite products over the last 4 years. Very happy with both hard cases. I looked at getting Rimowa but it's too expensive. There's nothing that appealed at the price point apart from Samsonite and I think getting anything cheaper is a step down in quality.

GSEs willl not be privatized. In order to understand that one needs to look at the real reasons why they were taken over, which unfortunately the podcast doesn't discuss. This has to be one of the most over-analyzed trades since 2011.

Who wants to be the greater fool to pay a 20x multiple for a listing when they can buy the HK shares? It's not that difficult to trade HK shares and there is almost minimal currency risk against the USD. And if it's a listing by way of introduction, it becomes awkward. Does the US follow HK or HK follow the US valuation multiple?

fabulous!

I love this format, great interesting and value-add quick thoughts. Keep rambling!

Thank you for your podcast. You mention "bailout terms" should be much higher, like a 3-4 bagger. Could you please let us know when the US Govt made 3-4 times on a bailout?

Enrique was awesome. Stop interrupting guests, Andrew.

PLEASE stop saying, "Right?", at the end of your sentences. Good content, but a terrible vocal crutch. An AI audio editor works great for this. Thanks.

Love this series, thanks Andrew.

Another great podcast - thank you

Wow. Beard looking fantastic mate! Love the hairstyle as well. Love the fargo look.

Great stuff. Why does the host shout down the mic, though? Manic stuff.

I think this is one of the most important companies that will secure a deep moat over the next 25 years as long as leadership maintains a good strategic plan. I do see them going into the services route within a decade to cushion margins at the very least. They also brought on the former CSO from google eho was pivotal to revenue growth. So we will see what happens in the next 3 years

Marc is great

Loved The Podcast, waiting for the next one with Matt, I had a question about the 300 price for met coal after the fire, do you think that after the price increase, the stock price of AMR will increase after the earnings call? should I go all in on AMR before then, as the call can only be positive right?

Very useful insight for my MBA dissertation about Emerging Market RE Performance

Great podcast, enjoyed the discussion.

Satisfying to see the beard growing back. Apply come beard cream. Gets it nice thick & lush.

great thank you!

The interruptions make this a good interview instead of a great one. Unfortunate.

Andrew- Luke Gromen has some ideas about liquidity and why things may be different for Fanny/ Freddie this time around

If Cramer is against it, then for sure the deal is going to go through. 😊

Cramer made that statement during the lightning round. 😅

I like this

gaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay

Would not have guessed the stock would be up 64% in the 2 months since this....