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Half the field can win it!

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Good luck!

@@onthedriftpodcast you too!

We can buy into hype, absolutely. But I think you’ll find last week we said that Joliestar and Storm Boy were not betting propositions at the price last week, and we said the same about Autumn Glow this week. A really good 3yo can win a Cox Plate and an Everest, the latter happening twice since 2019, and we’re of the opinion that this is a good crop of 3yos that would be competitive in both races, in particular the Everest. If you don’t like Blake Shinn, that’s your opinion. If he’s riding a horse that we like, we have no reservations at all.

@@onthedriftpodcast I never said I didn't like Blake Shinn but he quite often rides like his mind is elsewhere, on the same Card he sat 3 wide on pace facing the breeze on Aramco who was heavily backed, but he is one of my "Go to" jockeys (in a period of ordinary jockeys) Of course, a really good 3 year old can win an Everest or a Cox Plate (actually a fairly ordinary one can too (it has been won by a Maiden) but to think there is a whole Crop that could be competitive before they actually do it, that is HYPE, most have only raced against each other, and they take turns, sometimes horse run to their hype but Hype just makes them much shorter than they should be, it depends on teh price you are willing to take, if you keep backing hype horses you will lose long term My main point about Hype was your comment on whether the Underwood is a real Group One or a group 2 or 3, it is what it is, full stop, giving a race group status before you know the field, is all about stallion fees and yearling prices, nothing to do with racing Group Racing is all hype, I don't know why punters buy into it, it is pointless i.e. will giving the Everest Group One "status" make it a better race? of course not, true Group Ones can stand on their own merits, Group status is about making Yearling buyers think all Group Ones are the same, it's total BS Punters should net let themselves get pulled into that Vortex of corruption, chasing "Group status has F*cked more horses than everything else put together, and when they get it, they quite often retire them because they know the group Status was phony to begin with, i'e' Golden Slipper winners By the way, I think Storm Boy is the best of the crop, he is by a Kentucky Derby winner, he will be better when he gets over ground if they don't F*ck him up trying to make a sprinter out of him, he is doing it on raw ability, they continue to ride the ears off him as soon as they jump, just because he can do it, doesn't mean they should do it It's all about price, I think he is a big chance when he gets to a mile, but I worry if they will be able to get him to settle after the way they are riding him in sprints Have a great day, enjoy your show, love your passion

Who’s going to break this to Jonesy?

Impossible as they are not run on the same day. He’s a good horse but not so good that he can transcend time and space!

Reflect the hate BD 😎

Wouldn’t blame him

TOUGH

There is a bit of rain around which will suit, and the temperature is a bit milder which could prevent it being a rock hard track. Agreed though, she does grow a leg with any cut out. Definitely agreed on Deny Knowledge and Yonce, both great chances in a competitive race. Can see why Zougotcha is her current quote despite the weight. Jmac on (to be fair he wouldn’t be able to ride many more in this race), and Lady Laguna formlines through the lead up, and LL knocked off Espiona and Think About It last start.

@@onthedriftpodcast It was about price, if you just took her record on Good tracks into account, she should be a much better price, I don't doubt her ability, I think the Jmac tax on this one is too much, she also has Top weight, handicaps are hard for Top weights to win, they need to have a lot on the opposition, conversely Yonce has only been beaten once on good tracks and that was second up after an almost 2 year spell, she then won he next start, she ran 4th in a Group One(on a heavy track) at WFA, she only has 54kg's and is well into Double figures, reverse the prices and I would be on Zougotcha (as well) it's about putting a Value on a horse and I think Zougotcha is unders and Yonce is overs, not about who I think can or will win

Should be all sorted

Put her in for 2nd so she is clearly a winning chance. Just stating the facts, not reading into that facts as she is in both of our numbers. Want to provide as much context/information to the punter as possible, and then it’s on them to make up their own mind

@@onthedriftpodcast Anything can happen in a Horse race, just saying sometimes Punters look at History as a Guide and it isn't, that is the definition of history, something that has NEVER happened before! I just thought I would play devil's Advocate and put the history of the Newmarket into some context, good luck

Not a breeding buff, but could it be due to the younger colts going to stud earlier? Reducing the ranks of our male horses in our features beyond the 3yo seasons, and people far more educated than I on the subject are saying that the having a sire that is battle hardened, an older entire is more beneficial than the flash in the pan 2yo. A theory but not sure

@@onthedriftpodcast Not really, They only retire Group One winning 2 year olds and they have NEVER really had an impact as older Horses anyway, Try and think of a n Australian Champion who was the Champion 2 year old of his year?, Tulloch would come closest but Todman was better as a 2 year old and he was retired early, and still mares found it tough to compete, Champion 2 Year olds rarely if ever make it to the Top, Neither Winx, Black Caviar, Makybe Diva, Sunline, Verry Eleegant or Imperatriz were champion 2 year olds either, even if they were colts they would NOT have been retired early They retired Luskin Star, Vain and Todman early, probably the 3 greatest 2 year olds in History by a loooong way......and still Mares could not compete even with them out of the way So No, that isn't the answer! 2 year Old racing is about maturity as much if not more than ability, they retire them mostly because they have won a Group One and they know they are NO good and will get caught up with as the less mature horses of their season catch up, that is the real reason they retire them, they don't want to run the risk of exposing their lack of ability....and they are only trying to breed a 2 year old anyway, what better way to do it than with the best baby of his baby year?

This would be an unbelievable result, so much in fact I don't believe it will happen. Best of luck though mate

Offt great shopping that! Best of luck and thanks for listening

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He’ll have a spot on our heads rent free for life

Hehe thanks for listening mate, hopefully we make some sort of sense

Haha no we're not those guys mate

@onthedriftpodcast ok boys a question for you. You have the best miler in the Country but it can't get 2000m. Come Spring post it's 3yo season, what it's target race once handicapped out of handicapped races? I ask because I have that horse, kidding, I wish. I ask because I think there is a big prize money prestigious G1 missing in the Spring for such horses. One recent example would be Whobegotyou. There is the Champion's mile on the last day but not huge money or prestige like a Cox Plate. If Aust breeding is going to move beyond the Sprinters, I think we need to aim to breed great miler's then move on to middle distance breeding. Thoughts

we've had a chat about this on this week's podcast, releasing later tonight@@craigburrows6056

Thanks boys great Podcast again. In hindsight (that beautiful thing it is) I probably would have left off the breeding part to my question. I guess my point was in the Spring the 3yo's have their targets over all distances. Open sprinters have Everest, Cox Plate, Caulfield Cup, Melbourne Cup but nothing that defines the best miler, a distance where we have a lot of very good competitive WFA stars. One other thing on Sunday Yankee Rose's Daughter Liberty Island is racing in the Japan Cup. I written a bit of yarn on it on a Facebook page I recently started called The Racing Buzz. I will try to post a link to it. A few yarns on their if you have trouble falling asleep might help

Knowing PVL, the money for the King Charles G1 over the mile will increase from the already very wealthy $5 million purse - which is worth the same amount as a Cox Plate! Very interesting to see the Japanese invest so heavily in Australia brood mares!

Reach out on our Instagram mate and we’ll get a hat sorted for you

Waa brilliant!

Can absolutely understand this take. There looks to be more speed on paper in the Oaks than there was in the Victoria Derby and that was run at a genuine tempo. If it is a tactical affair, can definitely see Tropical Squall winning, but happy to take her on at the price with a couple that look to be wanting the distance. Thanks for engaging!

@@onthedriftpodcast Gai's horses don't go "too slow" they will go along just fast enough to satisfy everyone, I expect them to be in control, if you go too slow you risk making something back in the field start to pull and they will have to make a play for the lead Nothing in the race has any class except maybe Tropical Squall, and to an even lesser extent Zardozi, I can't see any genuine stayers, staying ability only counts if there is no class, I doubt anything will pour on pressure a long way from home, Group Ones for 3 Year old fillies is not a win at all cost type of race, a Group One Placing makes them worth a lot of money, they won't jeopardise that to win or run last, they will be looking to play the percentages, win if you can....but try to at least run a place, plodding into a place is the only chance most will ever get at a Group One In saying that I would not get too involved betting on the race, can't see any real mistakes in the market and that is the only thing that could entice me to bet "to the max" in the race, I took $5 about Tropical Squall but not for the national debt! Good Luck

Zardozi was a cut above at the 2500m!

@@onthedriftpodcast She certainly was, there were only the two fillies with Class, one stayed and the other didn't, although Tropical Squall completely lost it's action on straightening, not sure what happened there, it didn't stay but would not have won if the race was 1600, not the same filly she was in Sydney

@@onthedriftpodcast P.S. I backed Zardozi in a couple of her Sydney runs and she went like a busted, , I gave her life, maybe I was a little too hasty, eh?

Thanks for watching and getting involved legend 🤝🫵🙏

She’s a ⭐️🤩✨🌟

Was very good. If he puts it all together he could brain them all

Very on brand for you mate, he’s a sensational horse and a rightful chance

It's an interesting question. Waller has had 50 starters Victoria this season for 4 winners, but it could be argued that the majority of these runners are going to be targeted to bigger grand finals (i.e. the Melbourne Cup) so it's just a fitness run, the likes of Soulcombe & Francesco Guardi so you're not fully expecting these horses to win their lead up runs. Looking at his NSW stats, he's had 86 starters at Rosehill for 9 winners, and 329 starters at Randwick for 29 winners. He's pretty consistent around that 9% winning strike rate. In general, he has so many horses going around that his winning strike rate isn't going to be matching the likes of Waterhouse & Bott in NSW or Lindsay Park in VIC. For us, we typically like to back Waller runners in their Grand Finals in the big races, he's an elite Grand Final trainer (and elite trainer in general), but he also trains a lot of slow horses.

@@onthedriftpodcast thanks for the reply guys. Love the insight and the pod. Really been getting into the deep dives lately. You guys have opened my eyes to so many factors, while im still learning the ins and outs. Paid off yesterday, i noticed the weight relief on Doull and thought i was onto something, then I heard it on the pod so I pulled the trigger! Responsibly of course haha then I got a nice little bonus Without a fight 😉 Cheers lads 🍻

@@adambarrett9375 nice one mate, well done. There are so many factors to look at that it can all get a bit mixed together at times. As long as you're betting within your means, it's a bit of fun!

If you say so Stuart!

Not typically a big greyhound guy but might have to give this a look! 😉

Game of opinions mate, who do you like to knock off Me Brightside?

@@onthedriftpodcast big fan of Zaaki can’t get off him🤣 gets Jamie Kah aswell

@@onthedriftpodcast yeah I used to be a Brightside guy but then he beat my boy AB so hate him 🤣

That is a big price for a mare who’s been in career best!

He was v good last start!

He proved last year that he could go to all 3, he’s a gun no doubt.

100% Definitely want to see him put these away

DJ is keen regardless, Hutch will have something small on Rothfire to cause a little upset. Such a facinating race

You’re too right 😂