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What are you thinking about the Markets currently?

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You still cannot predict real markets. Both real and fake charts are functionally the exact same. The fundamentals that drive real price, and an RNG algorithm produce the same thing. Both are unpredictable.

You simply don't understand the deeper meaning and real usage of 'random walk & Efficient Market Hypothesi '.

I don't believe in support and resistance. You can plot a line on a random spot, and you'll see it being respected at some point repeatedly. This happens on real charts, and randomly generated charts. I still say that the market is an over-engineered RNG algorithm. A chart driven by random news and billions of participants, or a pseudo random number generator, both produce basically the same results. Our trading strategies are way too primitive to tell the two apart. I don't care if real charts are slightly different, because our trading strategies won't know the difference.

How to trade using fractal

iirc they mention the weaknesses of the model, ie being based on CAPM & normal distiributions.. volatility that isn’t dynamically changing… etc etc.

Anyone who came up with the equations to describe the fractal patterns we see on stock charts, is working for funds like Medallion. These papers won't ever be a part of the public domain. LOL.

Fundamentals apply only as they relate to higher time frame participants aka large institutional traders like Black Rock, Fidelity, Vanguard. etc. deciding to enter and exit large positions at key price levels. The average day trader need not concern him or herself with that knowledge since the charts on higher time frames (weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly) clearly show where institutional traders apply buying and selling pressure. Markets are in essence controlled by higher time frame participants on time scales that are oblivious to day traders. Day traders see and try to trade effects caused by participants outside of their narrow 1 minute, 2 minute, 5 minute and 15 minute time frames. Which generates a whole lot of confusion and bad trades. Zooming out of course helps a lot but awareness of the situation while zoomed out helps more.

EMH and random walks is clearly nonsense and yet it must be promoted, since to say otherwise, would allow traders to enter into the correct belief systems so they could start on the correct path to decode what they see on the charts. And those that do uncover the truth such as the Medallion fund creators keep it to themselves and reap all the benefits.

I wonder why I never heard LTCM co-founded by one of the creators of Black Scholes? That epic fail would tarnish the whole foundation of how options and other derivatives are priced. So it's just not discussed, hidden in plain site. They say never confuse the map aka model with reality!

The hierarchy does exist (work) on larger time frames such as the yearly. The only issue is the stock market is not old enough to easily see it. You are in effect zoomed in if you look at any chart based on a yearly interval. For example 100 years of data would be 100 bars, or like looking at 100 minutes on a 1 minute chart and then drawing the conclusion that the hierarchy no longer works. Now if we had 2584 years of yearly data it would obvious the hierarchy is in full effect.

I find that for intraday forex trend trading most important relevant (Guide)trend direction is ON 15 minute, 1h and 4h charts only-- For intraday trading weekly & monthly trends do not matter much(too far removed from intraday field of activity) & can be ignored. For simplicity sake if 15 minute ,1h & 4h trends are in the same direction, you have a trade set up in the same direction (one could fine tune entry 0n 5 minute charts). In general if daily candle be in the same direction for any trade it is better but not A must.--Sir, what do you have to say?

I find that for intraday forex trend trading most important relevant (Guide)trend direction is ON 15 minute, 1h and 4h charts only-- For intraday trading weekly & monthly trends do not matter much(too far removed from intraday field of activity) & can be ignored. For simplicity sake if 15 minute ,1h & 4h trends are in the same direction, you have a trade set up in the same direction (one could fine tune entry 0n 5 minute charts). In general if daily candle be in the same direction for any trade it is better but not A must.--Sir, what do you have to say?

I find that for intraday forex trend trading most important relevant (Guide)trend direction is ON 15 minute, 1h and 4h charts only-- For intraday trading weekly & monthly trends do not matter much(too far removed from intraday field of activity) & can be ignored. For simplicity sake if 15 minute ,1h & 4h trends are in the same direction, you have a trade set up in the same direction (one could fine tune entry 0n 5 minute charts). In general if daily candle be in the same direction for any trade it is better but not A must.--Sir, what do you have to say?

“How something unpredictable explains something unpredictable”.

Well said.

Randomness is in nature. Would love to see a your thoughts when Cheetah hunting gazelle and its random nature..

Tienes un error en el uso e interpretación de los fractales. Por lo que veo en el video esperas que exista una correlación matemática perfecta entre fractales a diferentes escalas de tiempo, esperas ver la misma figura fractal a diferentes temporalidades de tiempo, sin embargo eso NO es posible por que el mercado financiero es un sistema NO lineal dinámico, y partiendo de esto NO espere que exista correlación exacta. Sin embargo si puedes determinar tendencia de mediano y largo plazo. y en periodos de tiempo mas cortos si puedes usar fractales para tratar de predecir un comportamiento futuro del precio. debes analizar un periodo de tiempo corto identificar el periodo más reciente y compararlo VS un periodo anterior, si existe "similitud fractal" entonces podrías proyectar ese fractal a futuro (en corto plazo). Yo lo veo como una mira de un avión de combate moderno, si metes en la mira un objetivo, y puedes determinar distancia y dirección, entonces puedes programar un cohete que lo alcance el un lugar futuro. exactamente lo mismo usas para disenar tu pronostico fractal..

Listen. I have been researching this for months. I'm building something called catalyst theory, derived from rene thoms catastrophe theory. A single shot equation to identify catalysts for large moves or swings in a nonlinear system like the stock market. Can we talk? On email or telegram?

Absolutely love this channel, hope you release more videos in the future 🙏🏻

Turbulence does fall out of the navier stokes equations, you just need arbitrarily fine resolution in your simulation.

这个视频好啊，回答了我心中的疑问。那应该用什么样的模型替代呢。很想和你交流一下。

Good video, I observe that you can take advantage of knowing how higher fractal trend is moving, then look for pulback on the lower fractal trend for entry to get good fills, then put your faith on the power of higher fractal trends to make money. But this can be tricky becuase if lower fractal is moving down and higher is moving up, it does feel like buying a falling knife at times. I guess for a even better entry, you dig down into even lower fractal time scale, but there is a limited and a point where too mch is too much, finding the good balance between high and low fractal is a challenge, but of course, even higher fractal scale still have a even higher one, and even that have a higher one etc... in the end, I think the highest fractal is a nation's underlying strength and power, that also means all empire decline and nothing lasts forever, but you can still make money playing the fractl that is presented to you... i lost my train of thogught here

This video relies on several false assumptions. The efficient market hypothesis has nothing to do with volatility, but rather it states all the available information is already priced in the stock. That is to say, if, for instance, the future growth of a company depends on the price of money, the current price of the stock will reflect the current interest rate and the best guess of near future rate changes.

"Fractal Manhattan"; in reality there is a fundamental reason for fractals to repeat themselves; fractals in their very nature are the building blocks for creation of the fabric of market itself; its structural framework. fractals are always the same; create the same multidimensional constructs consisting of the same hierarchical structures in every financial market, in every time frame, in every single financial chart. what actually throws you off is that you erroneously see markets' structures as the fractals themselves; you connect support and resistance levels on a fractal and not structural level; thus exposing yourself to a misconception and confusion as to the real importance of every single support and resistance and their inherent relationship to each other; every support and resistance level on any chart in any timeframe is related to each other on a structural level and cannot be disregarded; the latter fallacy is what prompts your inability to see clearly defined trends on small time frames ( even 1 tick or 1second charts) once you utilize support/resistance on structural as opposed to fractal levels, they become extremely easy to use; bring clarity and stability to what most people consider chaotic nature of the markets; nothing could be further from the truth.

😂😂😂😂 when something is unpredictable is basically random.

Do you have a nice introductory source for these fractal cascade processes? I couldn't find anything with a quick google search. I was also wondering whether such processes are even martingales and how widely accepted they are as the proper model for price movements.

Problem is that clustered volatility can't help you predict future price changes. Also, pleople who believe in random walks and EMH know that the market isn't 100% random, otherwise something like the medallion fund wouldn't exist. Also the smaller the traded stock is, the less efficient the market becomes and therefore also less random. But also: The problem is, the less random a stock is, the more traders want to profit, making it more traded and therefore less random in return. The only constant in the stock market is that a well diversified portfolio goes up over time. The more ou try to profit from the volatility, the more it becomes a zero sum game, as in a trade, someone loses and the other wins.

Correct me if I’m wrong because I’m confused, I thought the black scholes Merton equation factors in the underlying movement of the market based on past and current events through drift, isn’t the drift aspect of the equation stating that current and past trends can effect the pricing of contracts.

Hello. To understand why and how support and resistance levels actually work, you need to look at the dynamic order book. A level breakout occurs when a large limit order to sell or buy is executed, then its stoploss is executed. Then we observe the very level breakout. A level is considered good when there have been several approaches to it and attempts to execute it. Then in this place many people get into position from this large order, which pulls the price even more after breaking the level. I've explained it rather summarily. To understand what I wrote about, try googling "large orders on the chart" services for cryptocurrencies, for example. Sorry, but you are not defining the levels correctly. Best regards, Paul

Great channel i think this will be a staple in the financial world in the future.Ppl are catching on love the evolution.

Nice explanation been reading Benoit mandelbrot's fractal

Well, I look at a forex line chart, and a pseudorandomly generated line chart, and they both look the bloody same. It's random... chaotic... unpredictable. It's all the same thing. They all have one thing in common: You cannot predict the future. If it's random, it's unpredictable. If it's unpredictable, it's random. It's not rocket science.

Thank you sir for sharing 🙏.

good prez!

All is number.

Heston models deals with changing vol though!

Amazing channel please please make more videos on maths of stocks or something related to that

Please make more videos on maths and trading

Please make more videos on maths and trading

and how does all this help us in trading the markets?

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Wow. Is BSM Modelling still mostly relied on by majority of people? So does that mean institutions and traders still havent learnt from past events like LTCM black swan events??

what is a fractal market on a higher timeframe? if for example the market is in an uptrend direction ,does it mean that on a lower timeframe such as 1-minute, or or in micro time frame still the that is the same in an uptrend direction as an overall direction as a whole that the lower timeframe submitted to an uptrend direction because on a higher time timeframe is it is bullish trend. is it correct?

Have you ever read trading with jchart by John Chen? It’s a method based on the Sierpinski triangle. Would be interested in your thoughts on that!

Markets definitely have randomness, as the individual trades that compose them have randomness. However, that does not mean the markets are not chaotic. I think they are stochastic chaotic systems. They are definitely random because the trades have randomness. Many of them are based on exogenous events which for all intents and purposes may as well be random (like a CEO dying, a merger being announced, a product failing, etc.). Additionally, the exact time at which a trade is made (which effects stock prices) is somewhat random, especially with fundamentals. With chaos, even seemingly negligible random innovations (such as latency from geographical location) bring randomness.

Gosh, these are good

This is actually a very insightful video. Came across your channel when I watched your video on chaos theory a while ago and it's good to see you're still posting and somewhat active!