Видео

Does the guest ever get a chance to talk?

Acoustics: you sound as if you’re speaking from inside a packet of Polos …

Attempting to create a mathematicised science of historical prediction of the rise and fall of civilizations as Turchin has done is useful, transferring his studies of insect population demographics to human populations, and coming up with a 200 or so average lifespan for the rise and fall of empires, similar to Ibn Khaldoun's rise and fall of empires created by the conquests of invading desert Bedouin and Berber tribes he observed in North Africa, writing in the 15th century. Writing in his "The Fall of the West" in 1918, Spengler said the West would revert to its previous civilization, pre-1054 Orthodox Christianity, by 1100, as quoted in Archimandrite Justin Popovich 's the Orthodox Church and Ecumenism. This builds on top of these mathematical models, it doesn't contradict it. God, Jesus Christ, who is a True Orthodox Christian in contemporary terms, is sovereign, and speaks through prophecies which refine and override this pattern in places. God gave us free will, but he is all-seeing and all-knowing as well and so knows the choices we will make therefore. People tend to be very shallow, and are often conned into acting against their own best interests. Just to give you an example, British expats who voted for Brexit in Spain. See my comments on RUclips on this: They were turkeys who voted for an early Christmas: Bregreters in Spain, wishing they'd voted Remain not Leave. Obviously failed to read part 13 of the Anonymous Prophecy of Mount Athos of 1053 "England for the Saxons only" and St. Arsenios of Moscow and Mount Athos's 1910 Prophecy which includes "Britain will lose her Empire and all her colonies and come to almost complete ruin but be saved by praying enthroned women". ruclips.net/video/ys1eUHPxykM/видео.html&feature=share

asimov's psycho history

Shit

Professor Peter was prescient about the Ukraine / Russia conflict when he predicted it in his book. Unlike Steven Pinker's violence reduction theory peter reminds us of the tenuous nature of peace existing between societies, least we forget that humans are a violent species by nature.

one of the smartest people in the world, presenting one of the most interesting topic, chooses Comic Sans as the font for his presentation hehehe jokes aside, super interesting video, thanks for uploading!

One of the greatest minds of our time, but it's a shame that society won't realise it until it's to late

So a good analogy is like the Taoist Ying and Yang of balancing order and chaos. You need a centralised power to get stuff done, bring together resources and armies to keep the society functioning and protected. But these power structures have a tendency to become despotic which become inefficient, dumb and hated, essentially falling apart from within or getting conquered. It’s about finding the balance.

How about the despotic societies masquerading as democracy such as the new USA anti free speech, constantly lying media etc. How do we have such an elite of oligarchs?

"Despotic societies are fragile" -- Aristotle observed the same thing, noting that tyrannical states were the shortest lived of the various types of polities.

Ultrasociality: it holds together not so much unrelated individuals as *distantly* related individuals, but the less distantly related, the more cohesive. "cooperation is fragile" - yes, it is, and one of the strongest supports for cooperation among persons who are only distantly related is frequent shared rituals. Originally these were the rituals of a common faith, but since the Enlightenment, secular or multi-faith countries have attempted with a significant degree of success to substitute patriotic rituals for religious ones, although these seem to be most effective when they can take on an aura of "civil religion." However, there has been a trend among western countries, especially since the 1960s, to observe even these weak rituals less and less. Perhaps it is the transatlantic elites' obsession with the globalist dream, or perhaps they have developed a cross-cultural class identity that they prioritize over their national identities, but whatever the reason, they no longer prioritize a strong national identity, and instead promote a celebration of "diversity" or "multiculturalism" within their own countries which is the domestic counterpart of an economic globalism founded on the linchpins of free trade and free capital movement. The consequence is that national identities become more and more adulterated, the risk of political instability rises, and increasingly countries are held together primarily by fear of the national state's armed forces and surveillance capabilities, although as we say when the Communist governments of eastern Europe collapsed, that is not always enough.

I would challenge the claim that empires are not familial relations: There is always a ruling tribe at the center of empire. And arguably nation state elite also have these.

$150 billion is a lot of money to waste on idiots that want to go to space while there are still so many problems here on earth....

I became a girl

It has become increasingly more apparent that the "world changing" event (i.e. Arab Spring) are manufactured, and NOT organic or a true populist movement. People (and societies) are being manipulated into believing, thinking, feeling a narrative that is synthetic.

DSW keep questioning people !

Wonderful webinar. Explains so much Thank You!

Article in Futurism brought me here. futurism.com/the-byte/2010-scientific-paper-predicted-2020-shitshow

0:13:56 - Despotism versus Pro-sociality : Cultural Multi-level Selection View 0:14:15 - 0:15:05 - How Can We Test Such Theories ? 0:15:59 - Suggest one model 0:17:20 - 0:17:35 - Cultural Multilevel Selection

0:00:00 - 0:01:07 - 0:01:27 - Cleo 0:01:35 - 0:01:49 - Humans cooperate in large groups 0:02:09 - Space Station Colony 0:02:30 - Cost estimate : $150 BIL & 3 MILLION PEOPLE-WORK-YEARS 0:03:13 - Cooperation : Very recent development in human history 0:03:47 - 100 years ago Empire State BLDG 0:04:15 - 1st known large-scale human construction : only 11,000 years ago 0:04:57 - A Social Scale 0:06:00 - 0:06:20 - Leaf-cutter ant species 0:07:07 - Humans Recent in the cooperation race & Champions 0:07:18 - THE PUZZLE OF ULTRASOCIALITY 0:08:15 - Key Glue that hols large society together 0:08:35 - 0:08:50 - How is Ultrasociety Glue remain stronger than FREE--RIDING Glue--Remover? 0:08:58 - Answer that & win a Kewpie doll - - - I aim to understand & win Kewpie doll 0:09:13 - THREE THEMES : 1st , Biological , 2nd Mathematical data , 3rd , Historical data 0:09:57 - Glue types Agriculture or Social Matrix or Warfare ___________ Agri-stick or Snooty-glue or Bloody-grip 0:10:20 - Cultural MULTI LEVEL SELECTION

I would like to get Professor Turchin's opinions regarding the mouse utopia experiments and if he feels there are any correlations between those behavioral findings and our current cultural state.

You folks are doing great work. It good to have an evolutionarily based model that can act as a counterweight to the traditional Rational Actor Theory in economics. Keep it up!