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At 35:50 you said: "Accept that AI coding is going to be the norm". I've been retired now for 1.5 years after a long career of scientific software engineering, development of numerical algorithms, advanced data analysis, mathematical modeling of physical systems, reverse engineering of software and systems that nobody really understood any more, and all sorts of varied challenging endeavors. As far as this old dog can tell, using AI coding to do real work is both exciting and still very much in its infancy. I can't imagine learning it in university courses today, although of course that is happening right now. What an amazing time this is. --

This is exactly what I have been looking for! I teach undergraduates and have been trying to find ways to increase in-class engagement. Definitely going to use Desmos as you have shown in my upcoming classes. Thank you for the thorough explanation!

This presentation confused the light out of me. I cannot find any correlation between the title and the talk. Was this intended to be a joke? Probably.

7:54 you mean 1D6?

Great talk as always. One important reason to teach frequentist thinking thoroughly is that people are inevitably going to have to read papers with (badly implemented and incorrectly interpeted) frequentist models, and as a reader of such papers I need to have fluency in the methodology to be able to determine how far the authors really are from what they want to conclude from the data. If people only know Bayes, they are not going to be able to evaluate published work or work they have to review for journals, etc.

Could you provide some books for studying Bayesian statistics? I have already done one course in Bayesian statistics so I don't want a 'slow' book. Thanks

Methodology, my lad, is the study of nethods in order to discover the best method for the matters at hand. Yes, I am a polyglot. It is not a top shelf synonym for methods. PS, it's not how many notes but the bird calls that indicate whether or not a cat is present.

Why do teachers insist that so much of what they are talking about is "unconscious"? This is why there are so many learning disabilities. Students are attempting to learn "unconsciously". It's anti pedagogy.

@rmcelreath any good reference illustrating Bayesian statistics w/o frequentist language? Particularly from the pre-data perspective of the DGP as a joint probability distribution of "equivalent" variables?

👍

Awesome!

"Feels cringe to recommend my own book", but actually being half way through it now and having consumed a lot of other bayesian learning material I genuinely believe it's the best starting point by miles. If you're a bayesian and you haven't read statistical rethinking then it's an absolute must.

I think one critique I made of the speaker is that, like a lot of us bayesians, he's too wishywashy in his recommendations. I know that as bayesians we tend to put uncertainity and not committing to answers fully first, it's part of the strength of the framework, but when it comes to decisions for people that don't see the full picture yet that kind of recommendation just leaves people confused and not knowing what to do. The answer I think he should have given is to recognise that if bayesian stats can everything frequentism can do and do it better, and even more that frequentists are answering "the wrong questions precisely", it means that frequentism is set for extinction as bayesian methods catch on. There's no reason to keep it around other than prototyping or something like that because of computational speed. In light of that, where your decision making is free enough to make the shift, you basically should do that. The problem is that you recommend people to be trail-blazers which sets them up to do frustrating and nebulous work that isn't for everyone, so you warn them about that. However, for the people who are robust enough to follow that path you should give them the tools to get started and the reward will be that they're well positioned to handle the change when broader statistical culture shifts as it is at the moment. They'll also be able to solve problems that stump frequentists all the time, framing probability as a belief frees you to answer so many more questions that are useful in contexts where its needed most, areas with high information asymmetry and limited data. The bottom line is, given the mechanisms that are at play, is it worth investing in this approach? I cannot stress how little value I currently see in frequentist statistics other than convienience and even then I think its value is limited. So investing in Bayesian statistics seems to be a pretty good mid to long-term career investment for those who want to challenge themselves and solve problems that nobody else can.

12:23

Why is it hard to do independent sampling in the posterior distribution?

What is a prior? --

When I was in college there was an interest in "automatic theorem proving" and it seemed impossible to convince a mathematician of the value of just formalizing a proof so the computer could check it. Times have changed, but it's clear from your video that formalized mathematics is still considered to be just a niche area by academics.

When I need a break from Kolmogorov or Sternberg, I read a few pages of "How to think about Analysis." I recommend it to any student of Real Analysis as a valuable asset.

Very helpful - conceptually and hands-on. Yes, now have STACK running in our own Moodle - on a Raspberry Pi. ;-)

Hi, what is the difference between the book "How to Study as a Mathematics Major" and "How to Study for a Mathematics Degree". Aren't they essentially the same thing?

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"Warrant" probably has a technical definition, but it seems to mean a rationale or justification for some given statement. The key issue then, is whether a warrant is merited for a given statement, and if so, whether the warrent is explicit or is implicit - the latter case being a challenge for relative novices. Moreover, if genuine understanding is to be achieved, the reader should aim to establish what the underlying reason is that permits a statement to be sound. (Or am I just paraphrasing?!). Happy to be corrected.

Starts @ 8:06

How do you get the bars and the question on itempool displayed over your web cam?

cool video<3

Hello! I'd like to know, how i use the Random Group to reused variables randomics in more than one question.