- Видео 208
- Просмотров 238 418
A Probability Space
Добавлен 19 мар 2020
Monte Carlo Methods (2025): The Runs Up/Down Test for Independence (Lesson 5)
We've tested for uniformity in our RNG, now let's test for independence! Do not be turned off by the longer running time of this video. It is about 30 minutes with an additional extra part at the end.
Просмотров: 145
Видео
R for Monte Carlo Methods: The Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test and R Scripts
Просмотров 92День назад
We test a sample from the RNG for uniformity while organizing the R code into a script. This video is best viewed between Lessons 4 and 5 of Monte Carlo Methods: ruclips.net/p/PLLyj1Zd4UWrNwo2LFGDzKmfqvJCocCFTQ
Monte Carlo Methods (2025): The Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test (Lesson 4)
Просмотров 287День назад
The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test: is your univariate, continuous distribution simulation working? The "Bottom Line" is at 22:56 Yes, I am aware of how "gauzy" and weirdly filtered this video looks. It's pretty terrible! I made a change in how I filmed this one and now it can't be corrected with post-processing. I hope to replace this video eventually but decided to let it go for now for the sake of ...
Monte Carlo Methods (2025): The Empirical Distribution Function (Lesson 3)
Просмотров 39814 дней назад
The empirical distribution function and its role in testing simulation results
R for Monte Carlo Methods: A Histogram
Просмотров 12714 дней назад
This is a very basic intro to R and histograms that is best viewed between Lessons 2 and 3 of Monte Carlo Methods: ruclips.net/p/PLLyj1Zd4UWrNwo2LFGDzKmfqvJCocCFTQ
Measure Theoretic Probability: Lesson 26
Просмотров 19414 дней назад
Intro to integrating with respect to a measure
Monte Carlo Methods (2025): Random Number Generators (Lesson 2)
Просмотров 35821 день назад
A little (very little) about (pseudo) random number generators. Random numbers are the building blocks for all things Monte Carlo!
Monte Carlo Methods (2025): What Are Monte Carlo Methods? (Lesson 1)
Просмотров 1,1 тыс.21 день назад
Hello All! My last Monte Carlo series unfortunately fizzled out before it really even got started. I found it unsustainable to keep up with in my spare (lol) time for many reasons and I was so sorry to disappoint everyone. This one will be going the distance though!
Measure Theoretic Probability: Lesson 25
Просмотров 487Месяц назад
Expected value for general random variables through a limit of simple random variables
Measure Theoretic Probability: Lesson 24
Просмотров 5993 месяца назад
More Properties of Expectation, Independence for Random Variables, Passing Infinite Sums Through Expectations
Measure Theoretic Probability: Lesson 23
Просмотров 4833 месяца назад
Expectation for simple random variables, partitions of Omega and just general blathering on forever while not saying much...
Mathematical Statistics (2024): Lecture 37
Просмотров 7684 месяца назад
Generalized Likelihood Ratio Tests (asymptotics!) In this video: (details pending) New videos release on some weird approximation of every Tuesday and Thursday! Thanks for watching! Consider checking out my MathStat textbook! www.amazon.com/Simple-Infinite-Joy-Mathematical-Statistics/dp/B0BD1YPQRN Also, if you are interested in data science, check out my courses on Coursera! www.coursera.org/sp...
Measure Theoretic Probability: Lesson 22
Просмотров 6114 месяца назад
Almost Sure Convergence and Convergence in Probability for Subsequences, Intro to Expectations
Mathematical Statistics (2024): Lecture 36
Просмотров 7035 месяцев назад
Generalized Likelihood Ratio Tests In this video: (details pending) New videos release on some weird approximation of every Tuesday and Thursday! Thanks for watching! Consider checking out my MathStat textbook! www.amazon.com/Simple-Infinite-Joy-Mathematical-Statistics/dp/B0BD1YPQRN Also, if you are interested in data science, check out my courses on Coursera! www.coursera.org/specializations/s...
Mathematical Statistics (2024): Lecture 35
Просмотров 8725 месяцев назад
Uniformly Most Powerful Hypothesis Tests In this video: (details pending) New videos release on some weird approximation of every Tuesday and Thursday! Thanks for watching! Consider checking out my MathStat textbook! www.amazon.com/Simple-Infinite-Joy-Mathematical-Statistics/dp/B0BD1YPQRN Also, if you are interested in data science, check out my courses on Coursera! www.coursera.org/specializat...
Measure Theoretic Probability: Lesson 21
Просмотров 5575 месяцев назад
Measure Theoretic Probability: Lesson 21
Mathematical Statistics (2024): Lecture 34
Просмотров 7345 месяцев назад
Mathematical Statistics (2024): Lecture 34
Mathematical Statistics (2024): Lecture 33
Просмотров 8576 месяцев назад
Mathematical Statistics (2024): Lecture 33
Measure Theoretic Probability: Lesson 20
Просмотров 7606 месяцев назад
Measure Theoretic Probability: Lesson 20
Mathematical Statistics (2024): Lecture 32
Просмотров 7296 месяцев назад
Mathematical Statistics (2024): Lecture 32
Mathematical Statistics (2024): Lecture 31
Просмотров 7656 месяцев назад
Mathematical Statistics (2024): Lecture 31
Measure Theoretic Probability: Lesson 19
Просмотров 8076 месяцев назад
Measure Theoretic Probability: Lesson 19
Mathematical Statistics (2024): Lecture 30
Просмотров 6836 месяцев назад
Mathematical Statistics (2024): Lecture 30
Solution to Random MathStat Problem #190
Просмотров 1367 месяцев назад
Solution to Random MathStat Problem #190
Solution to Random MathStat Problem #189
Просмотров 957 месяцев назад
Solution to Random MathStat Problem #189
Mathematical Statistics (2024): Lecture 29
Просмотров 9427 месяцев назад
Mathematical Statistics (2024): Lecture 29
Mathematical Statistics (2024): Lecture 28
Просмотров 7797 месяцев назад
Mathematical Statistics (2024): Lecture 28
Mathematical Statistics (2024): Lecture 27
Просмотров 8128 месяцев назад
Mathematical Statistics (2024): Lecture 27
Mathematical Statistics (2024): Lecture 26
Просмотров 7318 месяцев назад
Mathematical Statistics (2024): Lecture 26
Mathematical Statistics (2024): Lecture 25
Просмотров 1 тыс.8 месяцев назад
Mathematical Statistics (2024): Lecture 25
I've been writing both the likelihood function and log likelihood function for practice. At least write now, it's just tedious and doesn't bother me much.
shouldn't it be inverse at 48:54 ? If it's a very small interval, the probability of more events must be smaller ?
Agree, bugs are wild, both jumping in the race and those in the end of the video
Thank you ! We prooved this props of infinitely small functions during first semester in math analysis, but it's good to brush up🙂
In your last video what is a practical example that integral(X dp) is calculated using supremum?
Thank you, Professor, for another excellent video. I am eagerly looking forward to your lessons on Product Spaces and Fubini’s Theorem. However, I’m concerned that those videos may be released after the semester ends. Is there any possibility of accessing all the videos up to the topic of Martingales? I wouldn’t mind if they are unedited. I would be extremely grateful for the opportunity.
Hi @mohiuddinsifat5896. Unfortunately, I do not have unedited videos around. I am filming as I go. I don't think I will make it to your topics in time and I'm very sorry about that. :(
Thanks for the lecture series! It was really enjoyable and very well explained!
Thank you so much!
Thank you for uploading this on youtube
Who is this diva and I need her as my professor
Is anyone actively working on the R Project? I'm surprised that someone hasn't just stolen the script commands and made a new program out of them. Like..."Turtle-R" 😂
The RAND corporation was political on both sides; and, after the emergence of the Pentagon Papers, left little else. Pre-2001, Daniel Ellsberg was again politically active, and was a very outspoken opponent of nuclear war. Those same errors were probably apparent, then.
Oops, THIS algorithm. 😂 The MT Dr. Corcoran cited from (1996?) was implemented in the STL library (C++). I'd expect that that version is much faster than any virtual machine implementation; but that would be assumed. So, if it mattered, you could try writing a very fast version using Dr. Corcoran's suggestions about shift registers, probably in assembler (or you'd check the complied code for optimization). I'd recommend trying the C++ version. It's very easy to use; and comes with a complete library of PDF's that run on top of it. I would worry about people's concerns with precision because it's very difficult to keep track of machine error in an algorithm. Also, would there be any dependence of the MT, or even the LCRNG on function composition? Chaotic behavior would be implicit in the "fractal-ness" of either one of these, depending on its fixed point behavior...(correct?) Anyway, the history of this algorithm is very important, and was related to corporate politics of the Cold War Era.
Cool algorithm!
Thanks! And don't be worrying about the video quality! I didn't notice anything so it's probably just perfectionism fucking with you
Truly incredible! Thank you so much for continuing to put in such hard work and sharing it with us for free.
This is so nice of you to say. Thank you so much!
Is this a complete 1 semester course in masure theoretic probability?
Yes-- when it is finished. I expect it to be around 42 videos total. :)
Does this course qualify me for the markov processes ?
Yes!
Great explanation.
Thank you!
Organized, easy to follow, and to the point. I'm appreciating this series so far; thank you for your efforts!
Thank you!
Hmmm. It would appear that variable names like s and f are chosen in textbooks without much consideration for speaking or listening. Would m work instead for simple measurable function?
I'm partial to "u" but it might look like "mu" in my handwriting! I like your suggestion and might go with m in the next video--- thanks!
I really enjoy these videos. Thank you for doing this series. The proof at about ~25:00, I was thinking you could define g(w) = f(w) for w in A and g(w)=0 for w in B\A. Then g<=f and the integral over B of g <= the integral over B of f. But also the integral over A of f = the integral over B of g. I guess that last part needs more rigorous explanation, but i think it works.
Yes, that works!
A full mersenne twister video would be great to have. How does the algorithm actually work. Apart from theorems about cycle length, are there any provable results about the quality of the Mersenne twister algorithm, or is this only studied empirically. If looking at n-tuples exposes the LCRG to let most points fall on a number of planes in $n$ dimensional space, then is there some other transformation (like the ones we use to transform uniform random variables to other distributions) that might expose the Mersenne twister? Great content.
I don't know if the MT has some kind of transformation that might expose something about it. It is a good question. I will definitely look into it while preparing the full MT video. Thanks for watching!
machine precision...
The rand() function in the C standard library is a famous LCRNG. Toy card games written with it were infamous for shuffling their decks the same way with every start. The notation for remainder (circa four minutes) clashes with the typical congruence notation, where the parentheses applies across the equivalence relation and b is the remainder when a is divided by m: a === b (mod m), also called the modulus of the operation. And the remainder when b is divided by m follows as b mod m, without the parentheses, also called the modulo operation. Another video on the Mersenne Twister would be interesting and I would watch it, but I'm not a student, so maybe come back to it later as you see fit.
I would also watch, with same disclaimer about not being a student.
This is probably a silly question but as far as I understand, the notation X ~ geom is usually used with the left hand side of the tilde being a random variable. However, we used in this lecture this notation N | X_0 = i ~ geom indicating that the conditional of N on X_0 = i is geometrically distributed. But, the notation troubles be a bit, since N | X_0 = i is not a random variable (it is a symbol that we know its interpretation, yes, but it feels a bit of overloading the tilde, right?). So I was wondering if this is standard (I did see it in other resources) or is there alternative to that that adheres with the usual syntax and symantics of the tilde symbol?
I can understand why it might trouble you but it is pretty standard. Another way to say it would be to just write it out like "If X_0=i, then N ~ geom(p)" but that is kind of clunky in my opinion.
hi thanks so much for your work. i was wondering if you have any more video series planned for the future? Will the measure theory one be continuing?
Hi there. The measure theory one is definitely still going and you can expect a new one there in about 2 days. Right now I am focused on this new Monte Carlo series (new video dropping 11:50pm MST tonight!), speeding up production on measure theory, and redoing Markov Processes at a higher quality than before. My next thought is Bayesian Stats. What is your vote-- something else entirely?
@@AProbabilitySpace thank you so much for your response. that sounds amazing. thank you again for all the effort you are putting in. A Bayesian stats one would be amazing! Thanks again. You are literally a lifesaver.
@@AProbabilitySpace Hello Jem, thanks a lot for all of your amazing videos. How about some lectures on Stochastic Differential Equations (in the future)? :-) And, obviously, Bayesian Stats will be awesome!
Are the homework assignments publicly available?
Unfortunately, no-- nor do I even have them any more. If you can wait, I am redoing this series to clean everything up with the first video coming out next week. I will be including homework problems and solutions this time around. Sorry about that!
@AProbabilitySpace Thank you for your reply and work. I will keep an eye for the new series. On another note, I really can't say how much I appreciate this channel and the beautiful explanations you deliver. Keep it up!
@@TheTacticalDood Thank you for the encouragement and motivation!
@@AProbabilitySpace I hope you're doing well! I just wanted to check if the new series has been released yet. Thank you!
Thanks for the historical information about von Neumann's assistant. I believe Pennsylvania became very politically active after the war; but I don't really know why. It might've been a bigger Jewish academic population. I would worry, also, that Ulaf's "illness" was political.
I would say "colleague" as opposed to "assistant"! :)
@@AProbabilitySpace That's probably more than fair. I might've worried that it was weird that he just came down with a "sudden illness" while working on the Manhattan Project.. better to take a break from things and live to tell the tale.
I wonder what the actual model of nuclear decay is? Nuclear Decay: Given a mass m, of some atomic number Z, and half-life T. What are the sorts of distributions that would be possible to produce the exponential half life curve? Why would there be more than one possibility?
Interesting question!
@@AProbabilitySpace Given that the mass curve is deterministic, do you suppose that there is any way there could be more than one model for the decay? Thanks
Wow! Fantastic! I've been waiting for this course for so long. Thank you, Prof. Corcoran! Looking forward to your Monte Carlo textbook this year!
Thank you!
any plans to write more books? I'm really enjoying your mathstats book!
Thank you! Yes, in late spring or early summer, I will be publishing a Markov Processes book and a Monte Carlo book. The Monte Carlo book is with a real publisher (as opposed to the self-published mathstats book) so I'm not really sure of the timeline/process once I submit the final manuscript, but it is close to completion. Thanks for your support!
@@AProbabilitySpace that's awesome! hey one more thing I wanted to ask was is there any solutions anywhere for the exercises in the mathstats book? I've been going through them but not sure if I'm doing them correctly 😅
@@andyyang8876second that request, even if just partial solutions to point in the right direction
No, sorry. There are no compiled solutions at this time. :(
Instant like!
It's here! I've been going through MCMC from scratch by Hanada and Matsuura.
JVN <3 one of my favs
Me too!
@@AProbabilitySpace hey may I ask you a question please Is this meant for later year undergrads, or meant for grad students? I am very close to being ready to watch your lectures for my own course work and I was just curious who you had in mind specifically when making it? Thank you so much for everything!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@@Loots1 Hi there. It is meant for grads or advanced undergrads. I used to teach this in person as a grad course but the grads were from many different departments with diverse backgrounds so I never expected that much in terms of backgrounds and tended to keep things as simple as I could. An undergrad who has taken mathematical statistics would be fine! (An upperclass undergrad with only a more basic probability course might also be able to do it but it will be a bit more challenging.) Thanks for watching!
@@AProbabilitySpace my pleasure, thank you ever so much for your answer! I look forward to watching rigorously later this year when I am fully prepared :)
Hi professor! One small thing that would be helpful as a self-learner browsing for lectures of this topic would be if you titled the lectures in your playlist so that people unfamiliar with your course have an idea at a glance if these contain the topics they are seeking to learn. (green screen was a fun touch btw)
The audio... Is AI Noise remover the culprit ?
I didn't realize there was anything wrong with the audio. I will look into it today and fix it if I can. Thank you!
I just listened to several segments and I guess it sounds a little bit "tinny" to me. Is that what you are talking about or are you hearing clipping or distortion?
@@AProbabilitySpace 1. the voice sounds different. 2. Its like a noise remover is removing certain syllabus as you speak them in order to eliminate the background noise, "for example when you say 'n', it may eliminate the 'n' altogether. 3. Audio and video are slightly out of sync.
@@prateekmittalofficial Okay, thanks. I didn't change any editor settings but am working on a new laptop. I will look into it.
Great Lecture! measure space is very similar to topological space by category theory. Can we convert a measure space to a topological space ? is the sigma field some how related to a topology, please?
Starting 2025 strong with Lesson 25!!
Just out of curiosity, how long do you envision this series lasting for?
Probably for a total of 40-42 videos... :)
@@AProbabilitySpace Great. Thanks a lot. These course videos are helping me a lot.
What a great course, thank you!
32:34 there is no u2 because we can't go directly from state 3 to state 2 ?
It appears that I simply neglected to write out an equation for u2. It is certainly part of that system and must have been something I used when I worked out the final answers for u1, u3, and u4. Sorry about that!
@@AProbabilitySpace Thank you for the answer ! I enjoyed the video and the last example about coin flips was very interesting !
Hi Doctor, Do you have any PDF notes you’re willing to share?
Thanks!
Thank you so very much!
why do we miss w_152 in Q4 ? Ah ok you did it at the end.
i’m so grateful for your videos-they’re seriously the best thing ever! you explain concepts so clearly, and it’s been a huge help for me. thank you for all the effort you put into them. any chance you’ll doing anything on conditional expectation and martingales? would totally be here for it. thanks again, and sending lots of good vibes your way!
Thank you so much for your kind words! I'll absolutely be getting into conditional expectation and martingales soon. I have been working on a bunch of videos and holding them back so that I can start posting more frequently and consistently in the new year as opposed to the very sporadic stuff I've been doing. The good vibes are much appreciated-- I'm sending some back at you! 😀
Thank you
I'm enjoying this so far. I just started my master's. Fall was my first 3 credit course (Applied Linear Models). My wife passed away in fall of 2023 so I decided to do something to keep busy and keep my mind active. I have no real reason to do this other than that, since I'm in the twilight of my career. However, I could retire and do some consulting with a Master's .
Thank you for sharing. I'm very sorry for your loss but I think your goal is wonderful and I think you'll really enjoy some of the cool courses you'll get to take. All the best!
i.m looking forward to seeing a fish of length zero.
They are all around you. Don't you see them? 😁
@@AProbabilitySpace 🤣
I love this series more than I can possibly express. I've painfully completed a time-series modeling and a Bayesian inference class without having this foundational material, and am now rushing to complete it before my Statistical Learning and Deep Learning classes start next year. I bought your book so I could follow along and do the exercises. Would love to know which exercises you assign for each lecture.
You have no idea how happy it makes me to hear this. Thank you! As for the exercises, I don't know off the top of my head but I'll try to get back to this comment within the next few days after looking for the assignments. Thanks again!
@@AProbabilitySpace Did you find the assignments? Thanks again for the lectures though!
Hope your eye is fine now.