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Ed Yardeni
США
Добавлен 5 апр 2015
Dr. Ed Yardeni is the President of Yardeni Research, Inc., a provider of global investment strategy and asset allocation analyses and recommendations. He previously served as Chief Investment Strategist of Oak Associates, Prudential Equity Group, and Deutsche Bank's US equities division in New York City. He was also the Chief Economist of CJ Lawrence, Prudential-Bache Securities, and EF Hutton. He taught at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business and was an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He also held positions at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the US Treasury Department in Washington, D.C.
Dr. Ed earned his PhD in economics from Yale University in 1976, having completed his doctoral dissertation under Nobel Laureate James Tobin. Previously, he received a master's degree in international relations from Yale. He completed his undergraduate studies magna cum laude at Cornell University.
Dr. Ed earned his PhD in economics from Yale University in 1976, having completed his doctoral dissertation under Nobel Laureate James Tobin. Previously, he received a master's degree in international relations from Yale. He completed his undergraduate studies magna cum laude at Cornell University.
Risks & Reward In 2025
The January Barometer and January Effect have been interesting statistical regularities that may not have much investment usefulness. It’s better to stay in the stock market whatever the month brings than to try and execute exits and entrances based on the calendar. Over time, the market has a bullish bias, which is why we do too. … Today, Dr Ed lists what could go right for the stock market this year-including better-than-expected earnings, technological advances, and a strong economy buoyed by consumer spending-and what could go wrong. On that list, inspired by the worries of more bearish prognosticators, are the known unknown economic effects of Trump 2.0 policies and how the bond mark...
Просмотров: 6 049
Видео
What Could Go Wrong & Right Up Ahead?
Просмотров 6 тыс.День назад
Ed and Eric look forward to the new year.
2025 Outlook: What's Ahead?
Просмотров 10 тыс.14 дней назад
Ed and Eric look forward to the new year. 📈 Elevate Your Market Knowledge with Expert Insights After 40 years on Wall Street, I'm offering you a front-row seat to financial expertise. Get ahead with our analysis, charts, and exclusive commentary. ▶️ Grab a FREE month of premium insights: quicktak.es/Yt-0a Join our community for early webcast access, daily insights, and more. Start your journey ...
Inflation: The Good, The Bad & The Ugly
Просмотров 5 тыс.21 день назад
Lots of crosscurrents are converging to determine the course of inflation in 2025. So projecting that course takes seeing where those currents are headed, predicting with the aid of historical correlations how they’ll likely impact inflation, then overlaying potential economic scenarios to see how they change the narrative. The result: Dr Ed’s three inflation scenarios-the Good, the Bad, and th...
Roaring 2020s Tour Deep In The Heart Of Texas
Просмотров 4,1 тыс.Месяц назад
As Taylor Swift ends her Eras tour, Dr Ed starts his Roaring 2020s Tour to meet with our accounts. Last week in Texas, they shared their concerns about the “known unknowns,” as the new administration represents a significant policy regime change. On balance, Trump 2.0 should perpetuate our Roaring 2020s scenario. Fortunately, the US economy and financial markets are resilient and tend to outper...
Live Long & Prosper!
Просмотров 5 тыс.Месяц назад
Today, Dr. Ed examines Baby Boomer economics. The Boomers are sitting on sizable nest eggs that continue to expand along with home prices and stock prices. They are starting to spend more of their net worth as they retire. Many Boomers are not empty nesters but have grown children living at home and are providing them with financial support. The population bulge that has had outsized effects on...
Is Trump 2.0 Bullish Or Bearish?
Просмотров 6 тыс.Месяц назад
With economic growth robust and the stock market at a record high, we’re living the Roaring 2020s now. The economy’s resilience has been remarkable considering the headwinds it has faced. While the outlook under Trump 2.0 involves lots of moving parts, we don’t see the net effects of his policies jeopardizing the Roaring 2020s’ continuation. In this scenario (with our 55% subjective probability...
Trumped: What a Radical Policy Shift Means for Investors
Просмотров 8 тыс.Месяц назад
The US Constitution was designed to promote gridlock. But the benefits of gridlock are undermined by lawmakers’ spending freely because the Constitution lacks a balanced budget requirement. … Gridlock is good for investing, but the stock market tends to do well no matter who is in the White House. Trump’s proposals-representing a radical change from Biden’s policies-are likely to materialize be...
The Fed: Neutral Or Bust? Risking Inflation, Market Meltup, and a Strong Economy
Просмотров 6 тыс.Месяц назад
The Fed: Neutral Or Bust? Risking Inflation, Market Meltup, and a Strong Economy
Bond Vigilantes Voting Early: Why Rising Treasury Yields Are a Warning to the Fed
Просмотров 16 тыс.2 месяца назад
Bond Vigilantes Voting Early: Why Rising Treasury Yields Are a Warning to the Fed
Happy Second Birthday! The bull market turns two
Просмотров 3,4 тыс.2 месяца назад
Happy Second Birthday! The bull market turns two
No Hard Feelings -- Why the US Economy is Resilient & the Fed's Surprising Move
Просмотров 3,5 тыс.3 месяца назад
No Hard Feelings Why the US Economy is Resilient & the Fed's Surprising Move
50 Basis Points: Baked Or Half Baked?
Просмотров 2,8 тыс.3 месяца назад
50 Basis Points: Baked Or Half Baked?
Powell’s Latest Pivot Won’t Be His Last
Просмотров 6 тыс.4 месяца назад
Powell’s Latest Pivot Won’t Be His Last
No Recession In Earnings Or In Disinverting Yield Curve
Просмотров 6 тыс.5 месяцев назад
No Recession In Earnings Or In Disinverting Yield Curve
Dueling Views: Market Uncertainty & Policy Shifts
Просмотров 5 тыс.5 месяцев назад
Dueling Views: Market Uncertainty & Policy Shifts
Immaculate Disinflation! Lowering of inflation without a recession
Просмотров 2,8 тыс.5 месяцев назад
Immaculate Disinflation! Lowering of inflation without a recession
It’s Still A Bull Market Until Further Notice
Просмотров 10 тыс.6 месяцев назад
It’s Still A Bull Market Until Further Notice
Inflation Heading Toward Soft Landing
Просмотров 3,5 тыс.6 месяцев назад
Inflation Heading Toward Soft Landing
Bull Tramples Even Wall Street’s Bulls: Are we in a stock market melt up?
Просмотров 3,7 тыс.6 месяцев назад
Bull Tramples Even Wall Street’s Bulls: Are we in a stock market melt up?
The Phillips Curve Ball: Looking at unemployment and inflation
Просмотров 4,1 тыс.6 месяцев назад
The Phillips Curve Ball: Looking at unemployment and inflation
To Tell The Truth: A dive into the labor market data
Просмотров 4,7 тыс.7 месяцев назад
To Tell The Truth: A dive into the labor market data
Earnings Tales: What Q1 earnings is showing us
Просмотров 5 тыс.7 месяцев назад
Earnings Tales: What Q1 earnings is showing us
Great financial analysis! Thank You!!
i Think the housing market wants 7% mortgages but will settle for 5% I'm currently thinking the drive is simply uncertainty about trump's tariffs which look like they will be broad and deep. I agree January is sideways. 5% of prime lending or retail mortgages? Great content, gotta watch your episode yesterday. Liked & commented!
@@QuizmasterLaw I think the RUclips videos come out a few days after his emails
@@morehn yep
@@morehn basically his free content is gonna be accurate for stocks & bonds don't even try to trade options and futures on it lol
@QuizmasterLaw it's a few days late, so you'll generally be safe if you're holding for a few weeks. I don't know why futures or options would be different, assuming you know how to trade them with a longer term analysis. I don't trade options because I don't know how to valuate time decay and volatility, but futures is the same idea as stocks.
Tariffs are a smokescreen. It's about the bond market and China/Japan dumping US bonds to save their currencies.
How will the country afford its debt without lowering interest rates? Will GDP rise enough?
USA can generate revenues in MANY non tax ways (and some tax ways) regarding taxes EXCISE taxes on "sin" like cigarettes, alcohol, drugs are perennial earners so are gas oil kerosene match and lighter fluid taxes. The USA has lots of land it could sell anytime but does not want to. It can also increase passport and immigration fees. It can also issue creative bonds though does not do so and i don't recommend that, bond market is better stable and predictable. Regarding taxes I would end the step up at death benefit though rich people will scream. One can also play with the rates of depreciation, capital gains, short and long term gains. Tax reform requires brains, agenda, sensible smart policies. Idk if Trump's team has that but there is a way forward if they want.
@@QuizmasterLaw virtually nothing you said as any meaningful impact on GDP.
@ it's not GDP i would influence but debt & deficit. If I want to quickly increase gdp I would relegalize child labor, maybe suck in a few more million immigrants.
@tastypymp1287 lowering minimum wages would also help. people need a bit of desperation to get out and work. but we can't be so direct, so i guess a bit of inflation will do the same thing with less screaming. but again, my goal isn't to increase gdp (science is more palatable and often more effective) it's to reduce debt; though I would also be concerned about trade deficiits which, if you are no longer the world's policeman you can no longer expect decade after decade.
@QuizmasterLaw Silly boy.
Agree. Buy the dip.
You’re the man Ed
The office is looking pretty good in that shot😊
Thank you sir
I'm a really big fan of Ed
Shorts needs to be used for education like this more. It's people unlike you that are veering the next generation in a negative direction - but people like you are the ones who can save that. You've earned a subscriber, sir.
Thank you
Did you say the stock market did well on Friday? Maybe this is an old video.
No Ed…..that is the point. Govt regulations should not be up for auction. Regulations are there for a reason. Because at some point….people got hurt. I appreciate making money in the stock market as much as you do. But seriously….corporations are making plenty of money with the regulations they have. Don’t be greedy.
Your Fig 15 is very misleading. There is absolutely no evidence that supports this projection. Please do better.
What is misleading about it? His claim is that we're in a technology-driven market boom period over the rest of the decade like we were in 1995. So he's drawing parallels to that time period on the charts...
What I saw today was all those productive immigrants looting the LA fires. It's gonna be fantastic when they start working our AI for us.
Dr. Yardeni, love your weekly videos. Appreciate it you consider uploading them to Spotify as audio only podcasts. Cheers!
Ed, Eric Good discussion as always. The Jobs report came out subsequent to this report. The 10 year ended at 4.77%, which is relatively high. I think year-end earnings will be fine but obviously company interest expenses will rise. Productivity is improving and I think we will avoid a recession for the next 90 days. However, I am less bullish than you are. Trump policies will present incredible volatility and unknowns. He speaks insane thoughts daily, like taking over Canada or Greenland. Tariffs will be based on what countries do to bring production to US, so I expect them to be customized like you mention. The US$ is at historical highs, so that is also a market threat. I am very cautious now. I tune in each week. I am retired leveraged finance VP, MBA but not an economist. I hope things are more bullish as you hope.
My primary concern is navigating the ongoing economic and global challenges while staying financially stable, particularly amidst the political power struggles unfolding in the U.S.
Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over $250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are a lot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look.
Such market uncertainties are the reason I don’t base my market judgements and decisions on rumours and here-says, got the best of me 2020 and had me holding worthless position in the market, I had to revamp my entire portfolio through the aid of an advisor, before I started seeing any significant results happens in my portfolio, been using the same advisor and I’ve scaled up $450k within 2 years, whether a bullish or down market, both makes for good profit, it all depends on where you’re looking.
I’m in dire need of guidance so i can salvage my portfolio due to the massive dips and come up with better strategies. How can I reach this advisor?
Having a counselor is essential for portfolio diversification. My advisor is Rebecca Lynne Buie who is easily searchable and has extensive knowledge of the financial markets.
Google Rebecca Lynne Buie and do your own research. She has portfolio management down to a science
Thank you!
The emphasis on having a clear exit strategy is crucial, especially after experiencing the volatility of previous bull and bear markets. It’s refreshing to see the focus on setting realistic goals and understanding the why behind profit-taking. This approach not only prepares you for unexpected market shifts but also keeps you grounded during the emotional rollercoaster of trading. It’s a valuable reminder that crypto investing should ultimately serve our personal aspirations, rather than just becoming a game of chasing numbers. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around $200k to a decent 7 figures in the space of a few months...Thanks to Milton Harper insights, daily trade signals, and my dedication to learning, I've been increasing my daily earnings. Kudos to the journey ahead!
Oh, really? I never considered that as an option. May I ask who you've been working with? I could probably use some help myself.
He's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name.
@MiltonHarper
I appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the team behind Milton’s trade signal service.
He's really good in studying the market and making a strategy and i am learning so much from him already.
The rest of January risks are CPI reading, FOMC, and Trumps hawkish few weeks. Also tnx being under 5.0. This week I think showed you.
9usd is having a minor correction after bouncing off a major multiyear post GFC trendline on DXY. Check for yourself.
Flash forward to next week……. Ed: how’s the weather in Santa Monica Eric ? Eric: 😱
Good. Inflation is horrible, raises housing prices and distorts capital investment in so many ways. If you want to stimulate consumer spending (which I don't advise) then make EITC and tax refunds quarterly. This means less interest free loans to USA but consumers gonna spend whatever they have as soon as they get it because money+pocket=burning hole for 90% of humans. I love your work so does my boss you two are great!!
Ed called for higher vol and I’m grateful to him that I heeded the call
You need to figure out who your audience is: traders or investors. Investors don't need your help. Traders do, so get it right.
Which one are you?
What's your problem?
While investors may not trade as frequently as traders, they still make trades occasionally over the years. It's important to know when to exit a position and potentially re-enter at a discount, which is where these suggestions can be useful. This is just my opinion, and you're welcome to have your own.
If you're a trader you don't need macro forecasts. You need divine intervention.
Rude and wrong.
What do you think about silver
Hope Eric is well with the crazy fires out there!
Despite increased US-China trade and investment tensions there shall be no war nor governmental or economic collapse in China. Perhaps a recession in China, though they will never admit that and are actively seeking anti-recessionary actions such as encouraging tourism and, frankly, youtubing and similar ways to tap into Western markets and consumers at a micro level. Chinese people are hard working and want to get rich, even more so than the English, really. Great video!
Thank you very kindly Mr. Yardeni!
Good morning Max.
Max going Full Sloth.
They just have to do better than the democrats 😂
Regarding spending cuts unfortunately for military contractors and soldiers there's no pay raise this year.
I can generate 2 trillion, but i can only generate 30 trillion ONCE (and NOT by default). 1. Cigarette taxes 2. Gasoline taxes 3. ALCOHOL taxes. 4. Fireworks taxes. 5. Lighters & Lighter fluid. Government can ALWAYS generate revenue on excise taxes ESPECIALLY "sin" taxes. It's also a good idea to tighten up the tax code by jiggering depreciation tables. Maybe adjust the income tax rate structures, play with the EITC is also a way to squeeze some tax revenue.
Love these short clips!! Thanks for posting
Thank you Mr Yardeni
Like the short videos commenting on today’s markets
5% bonds means no housing sales, no? You don't need to answer my question, they are inexpert, though youtube is driven by engagement so I comment liked etc.
I think so for about 6 months, inflation seems under control the stock market is at all time highs, tax time approaches and so a bit of "stimulus" that way. I don't think the market needs stimulation, but i really am not an expert so I'm just saying my own opinions.
1stttttt
🥇
Thanks for the real time RUclips Shorts Dr. Ed!
👌
well, basically sideways trading due to Trump's inauguration for January, so profit taking and ppl piling into bonds but Yardeni confirmed what i also thought but with a lot better expertise. I'm Guessing Dow will meet resistance at 53,000 and will not break out past 60000 for 18-24 months there's just no geopolitical disaster imminent Russia is contained, China wants peace and trade and Trump wants prosperity, that's what I think. You're the expert!
I can't say I'm surprised to find out that if you're willing to own foxconn, accompanied known for using child labor and slave-like working conditions, you can make a good return! I would prefer to avoid owning that stock no matter how much they make. But then I thought the Confederacy was wrong to fight in favor of slavery, so what do I know?
Dude, you're getting a thousand Dells.
These quick takes are Gold Mr. Yardeni thanks and keep them going, short and sweet.
Enjoying your quick takes
thanks for the quick update! Good trading!
the zombie ratio of russel 2000 has been rising dramatically since 1990s. from 10 percent to over 45 percent! no wonder you dont advocate russel 2000. mag 7 is a cash cow
thanks for the update. you nailed it on your call on russel 2000 and tech