Видео

Ed's charts shrinkflated.

You mean the things people actually need to live arent going down? Imagine that

Thank You

bruh, they use PET (plastic) not copper for plumbing now. Not copper.

Ed trying hard to project Jackie and Eric.😂

The video title is why I started using little blue pills.

1. Is it a good comparison to look at fwd earnings of 99/00 - weren't those almost made up back then? 2. Better question about sentiment indicators would be why the difference now between AAII and II. And why they never learn - being such reliable contraindications for decades

Good Content!

The US economy is already in recession. Any rate cut will not ignite inflation. The banks will tighten even more, all consumer and corporate credit lending. This is the beginning of a deflationary period for your assets. Stocks markets will decline, and stock values disappear in a blink of the eye. Businesses will begin layoffs in earnest which will soon be reflected in the unemployment rate and unemployment claims, to further solidify the recession. In fact, when the FED cut rates in Sept, it will signify that the Titanic is going under, and it will suck everything down. Retail and housing sales will truly decline as consumer hold off their purchases. The inverted yield curve will then turn positive, but remember, certain assets like stocks and Crypto’s acts as a hedge. Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Sandy Barclays, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

I wish I knew what Mr. Yardeni means about the productivity number. I tend to feel since labor is an operational cost, then lowering labor cost increases productivity.

Great video as always. Do you guys happen to have book recommendations to learn more about economy/financial markets of the 70s? Thanks for your work

Regardless of their intention to being apolitical, any attention to fiscal policy by the Fed would be interpreted as political which is why they may be ignoring it - for now.

You mention, historically, productivity augments labor markets. What of A.I. generated productivity? Some analysts have estimated Bidenomics has added as much as 2% to GDP. Agree? If so, the current definition of a recession might not show itself even though a recession is in play.

@16:50 "If you look at this one specific metric, which is just based on estimates, valuations aren't as bad as they were at the top of the 2000 and 2021 bubbles". OK.

The right choice of an investment has always been a big problem for me I know picking a wrong investment will leave a big scar in the future..

The student loan free lunch is about to pay the piper and those kids are Fddddd. Theyll keep spending money they dont have for awhile more but then its bye bye.

🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

Excellent discussion - especially the importance of productivity gains.

Sometimes I can't understand investors' logic. The US government reports 3% GDP growth and this is proof the US economy is nowhere near recession. At the same time the Chinese economy is growing at a reported rate of 4.7% and people offhandedly say that China is in a "massive recession". I know there are issues with the Chinese numbers, but there are issues with the US numbers too. You can't have if both ways.

Great points on Powell at the end:)

Is that an old Monroe Trader Calculator on Ed's desk ?

❤❤❤❤🎉🎉🎉🎉

Guys, been a subscriber for just a couple months. Love it. Long Term Bloomberg Surveillance viewer as well. Any thoughts about moving your material to substack ?

Honestly if this guy had his own podcast I'd listen every week. Young Ed vibes

The right choice of an investment has always been a big problem for me I know picking a wrong investment will leave a big scar in the future

Eric- Ed and yourself were very conservative on your rate reduction estimates, which O thought were reasonable as well. I have an MBA and BS fin/econ. , and corporate banker for over thirty years. I have read three of Ed’s books. I enjoy all of your charts. I think the Fed went .50% because the bond market is telling them they Have To normalize! At least there is no rate inversion now. Normal lending should occur now. Hopefully, the housing market will recover.

Why is it so hard to reimagine, or to otherwise come up with a new set of circumstances unlike the past, that explain why the Fed moved rates down 50bps? It's not that hard. Also, they gave us the SEP playbook, so time to get long risk assets!

At 14:00-14:30..Let's get the nomenclature correct, first; son..it's ILLEGAL ALIENS, not "migrants". Of course, they're having downward pressure on wages..they wouldn't even BE HERE, in the first place; if we still had a President who actually LOVED his fellow Americans, more than his own political party, and his narcissistic "legacy".

Spending trillions upon trillions for 3% growth is good huh?

The US economy is already in recession. Now rate cut will ignite inflation. The banks will tighten even more, all consumer and corporate credit lending. This is the beginning of a deflationary period for your assets. Stocks markets will decline, and stock values disappear in a blink of the eye. Businesses will begin layoffs in earnest which will soon be reflected in the unemployment rate and unemployment claims, to further solidify the recession. In fact, Now that the FED cut rates in Sept, it will signify that the Titanic is going under, and it will suck everything down. Retail and housing sales will truly decline as consumer hold off their purchases. The inverted yield curve will then turn positive, but remember, certain assets like stocks and Crypto’s acts as a hedge. Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 732k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Seren Wintersun, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

Target is not soaring...

God is it exhausting listening to any individual present a permanently bullish, or bearish, case for market outlooks. So one-sided. Seems more like a marketing scheme than a genuine presentation of views. Surely real humans have more nuanced views than that...

Great update as always! Appreciate the insights.

Extremely naive takes as usual. Still not solid discussion of real wages of the bottom third continuing to trail inflation. Just the meaningless point that the wage increases of the bottom third are higher than the overall rate of inflation. As though the overall rate of inflation is anywhere remotely near the inflation experienced by the bottom third. Their wages are outpacing SOMEONE ELSE’S inflation. Wake up.

Look forward to you and Ed each week. Great content delivered by you both.

Buddy there was no yield curve inversion in 1995 or 1998 and they didn't start with a 50 point cut.

Ed's the man! Thank you for your insights Ed

Do you take into account how the GDP is inflated by government spending, since fiscal deficits are funded by government spending that is transferred to the banks and through the repo market to the economy and then spent, which due to our fractional reserve system, is multiplied many times?

Decent show, thanks.

I bet 10k on SportsBet that it would have been 0.25 drop. Now I’m financially ruined.

FIRSTTTTTTTT!!!!

Ed, Eric. Good to hear your comments again this week. I agree with your analysis of 1-2 rate reductions this year. I think growth will continue to grow low and steady. Politics is the wild card! I think the market wants .50% this week but Powell would never go to .50% after fighting inflation for so long. It is much higher than inflation and good to see the de-inversion. Hopefully, employment holds or they will have pressure to drop further.

Keep relying on the Bureau of Lying Statistics and see how far your analysis will be worth anything.

Again, Ed relying on constantly phony government employment figures that are almost always revised down. Get out in the real world and talk to the majority of people and they know we have been in a recession for at least a year.

Bull steepener or bear steepener (recession or goldilock, soft vs. hard landing in other words), that's the big question. PS: Portofino and Lake Como! Great choices, heading to Bellagio right now for a Sunday passeggiata.

layoffs muted ... LOL tell that to the 12k ups is gunning because of high union wages...

i am not liking these sharp selloff/rebounds

last week was horrible... absolute horror show

Ed's mic is the problem. Sounds like it's in a box on the other side of the room. But great content!